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NASA NTRS2020

Enabling Limited Resource-Bounded Disjunction in Scheduling

We describe three approaches to enabling a severely computationallylimited embedded scheduler to consider a smallnumber of alternative activities based on resource availability.We consider the case where the scheduler is so computationallylimited that it cannot backtrack search. The first twoapproaches precompile resource checks (called guards) thatonly enable selection of a preferred alternative activity if sufficientresources are estimated to be available to schedule theremaining activities. The third approach mimics backtrackingby invoking the scheduler multiple times with the alternativeactivities. We present an evaluation of these techniques onMars mission scenarios (called sol types) from NASA’s nextplanetary rover where these techniques are being evaluatedfor inclusion in an onboard scheduler.

Vaquero, Tiago↗
DOE OSTI2024

Risk Considerations of Transitioning CO2-EOR Field to CO2 storage Field: Case Study

In the United States (U.S.), carbon dioxide (CO2) injection wells at EOR sites are currently regulated as Class II wells under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Underground Injection Control (UIC) program while dedicated geological CO2 storage (GCS) wells are considered Class VI wells. A CO2-EOR facility considering a transitioning from tertiary oil recovery to injecting CO2 for the primary purpose of long-term storage is required to obtain a Class VI permit where this transition poses an increased risk to underground sources of drinking water. This study considers how transitioning operations from CO2-EOR to storage can impact reservoir plume and pressure transient in the storage envelope, and how these changes could impact area of review and potential unwanted fluid migration. We developed a case study to assess subsurface response and leakage risks associated with a representative, hypothetical operation in a carbonate reservoir. This reservoir transitions from tertiary hydrocarbon recovery to dedicated GCS. Reservoir simulations were run for a set of credible CO2-EOR scenarios to estimate distributions of fluids phases and pressures throughout the model domain after CO2 flooding as well as forecasting the behavior of the reservoir after the transition to a dedicated storage phase. The evolutions from all simulated scenarios were used as the basis for leakage risk quantification using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) with a novel reduced-order model to estimate time-dependent leakage of CO2, brine, and hydrocarbon fluids through potentially leaky wells. Results include a description of reservoir response, an estimate of the areal extent that could potentially be impacted by leakage to underground sources of drinking water, and estimates of the magnitude of potential leakage. Considerations for dedicated storage injection well selection, injectivity, and injection scheme performance and potential leakage risk are presented, with implications for risk assessment of well transition discussed. This study presents a risk-based workflow for the Class II to Class VI well transition. Integrating credible numerical simulation of viable CO2-EOR to dedicated CO2 storage with quantitative risk assessment tools, such as the NRAP-Open-IAM, will provide a valuable means to devise operational scenarios and inform decision-making related to storage benefit, leakage risk, and liability. Presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage Conference in Houston, TX, March 11-13, 2024.

Liu, Guoxiang↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Scenario-Based Approach to Assess Continuity Gaps in Earth Observations

Decision analysis processes outlined in systems engineering references, such as the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge [1] or the NASA Systems Engineering Handbook [2], recommend following a series of steps to support decision-making for engineering applications. These steps are consistent across the literature and typically involve defining objectives, defining relevant criteria against which candidate alternatives can be assessed, selecting an evaluation method, assessing alternatives, and making a recommendation based on this assessment. These approaches are well-suited to assess systems for which sets of common objectives and constraints can be identified. A vast body of literature describes their application to numerous engineering problems, and many methods have been developed since the middle of the 20th century to support the assessment of candidate alternatives for such systems [3, 4, 5, 6]. These approaches, however, show some limitations when decisions pertain to systems of systems. These collections of individual systems typically do not share a common set of objectives and constraints, tend to be highly complex, and the definition of assessable, high-value candidate alternatives poses a challenge due to interdependencies. The formulation, development, operation, and funding of Earth observing missions are such that gaps may occur between missions, therefore impacting the continuity of measurements. These Earth observing mission architectures constitute systems of systems for which a common set of objectives and constraints can be challenging to define. When tasked with assessing gaps that may occur for a series of spaceborne missions that address similar science parameters, the authors therefore proposed to depart from the traditional objective- and criteria-based approach and instead adopted a scenario-based approach. This approach does not require a prioritized set of common objectives; rather, it assesses the impact of possible decisions on the system-of-systems and characterizes its possible future states. It also offers the flexibility to adjust assumptions, update inputs, and refine supporting models over time, while enabling the rapid, early identification of challenges and key decision points. By simulating the impact of potential decisions on the entirety of the system-of-systems, the approach enables the synchronization of multiple decisions that typically occur at the level of the individual system. This paper provides an overview of the approach that was developed to assess continuity gaps for a series of operational and planned spaceborne Earth observing missions, a description of its application to the problem at hand, and a discussion of currently known limitations.

scenario earth observations continuity gaps↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Scenario-Based Approach to Assess Continuity Gaps in Earth Observations

Decision analysis processes outlined in systems engineering references, such as the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge [1] or the NASA Systems Engineering Handbook [2], recommend following a series of steps to support decision-making for engineering applications. These steps are consistent across the literature and typically involve defining objectives, defining relevant criteria against which candidate alternatives can be assessed, selecting an evaluation method, assessing alternatives, and making a recommendation based on this assessment. These approaches are well-suited to assess systems for which sets of common objectives and constraints can be identified. A vast body of literature describes their application to numerous engineering problems, and many methods have been developed since the middle of the 20th century to support the assessment of candidate alternatives for such systems [3, 4, 5, 6]. These approaches, however, show some limitations when decisions pertain to systems of systems. These collections of individual systems typically do not share a common set of objectives and constraints, tend to be highly complex, and the definition of assessable, high-value candidate alternatives poses a challenge due to interdependencies. The formulation, development, operation, and funding of Earth observing missions are such that gaps may occur between missions, therefore impacting the continuity of measurements. These Earth observing mission architectures constitute systems of systems for which a common set of objectives and constraints can be challenging to define. When tasked with assessing gaps that may occur for a series of spaceborne missions that address similar science parameters, the authors therefore proposed to depart from the traditional objective- and criteria-based approach and instead adopted a scenario-based approach. This approach does not require a prioritized set of common objectives; rather, it assesses the impact of possible decisions on the system-of-systems and characterizes its possible future states. It also offers the flexibility to adjust assumptions, update inputs, and refine supporting models over time, while enabling the rapid, early identification of challenges and key decision points. By simulating the impact of potential decisions on the entirety of the system-of-systems, the approach enables the synchronization of multiple decisions that typically occur at the level of the individual system. This paper provides an overview of the approach that was developed to assess continuity gaps for a series of operational and planned spaceborne Earth observing missions, a description of its application to the problem at hand, and a discussion of currently known limitations.

scenario earth observations continuity gaps↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-consistent equilibrium and transport simulations for NSTX-U plasmas enhanced via machine learning surrogate models

The Control-Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM) is an advanced equilibrium and transport code designed for simulating tokamak discharges at computational speeds suitable for control applications. COTSIM’s modular framework enables users to select models that balance accuracy with speed according to specific needs, allowing the code to operate from fast to faster-than-real-time performance levels. This work presents recent enhancements to COTSIM’s predictive accuracy for NSTX-U scenarios, achieved by integrating neural-network-based surrogate models and self-consistent equilibrium calculations. To improve source deposition predictions, a surrogate model for NUBEAM has been incorporated. Additionally, a surrogate model for the Multi-Mode Module (MMM) now supports predictions of anomalous thermal, momentum, and particle diffusivities—key factors for modeling the evolution of temperature and rotation. Each surrogate model was specifically trained for the NSTX-U operational regime to enhance COTSIM’s accuracy while maintaining computational efficiency. Moreover, COTSIM now couples fixed-boundary equilibrium solvers with its transport solvers, enabling self-consistent predictions of plasma profiles and equilibrium evolution over the discharge. Simulation results demonstrate strong agreement between COTSIM and TRANSP predictions for NSTX-U discharges. These substantial advancements expand COTSIM’s utility in model-based control applications for NSTX-U. Potential applications include simultaneous optimization of equilibrium and transport scenarios, integration into digital twins, real-time profile estimation (e.g., temperature and rotation) from limited or noisy measurements, and advanced feedback-based scenario control.

Equilibrium and transport modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observation of alpha-particles in recent D–T experiments on JET

The fusion reaction between deuterium and tritium, D(T,n) 4 He is the main source of energy in future thermonuclear reactors. Alpha-particles ( 4 He-ions) born with an average energy of 3.5 MeV transferring energy to the thermal plasma during their slowing down, should provide the self-sustained D–T plasma burn. The adequate confinement of α-particles is essential to provide efficient heating of the bulk plasma and steady burning of a reactor plasma. That is why the fusion-born α-particle studies have been a priority task in the second D–T experiments (DTE2) on the Joint European Torus (JET) to understand the main mechanisms of their slowing down, redistribution and losses and to develop optimal plasma scenarios. JET with Be-wall and W-divertor, enhanced auxiliary heating systems and improved energetic-particle diagnostic capabilities, producing significant population of α-particles, provided the possibility for comprehensive studying of the α-particle behaviour. Selected results of the confined and lost α-particle measurements, evidence of α-particle self-heating and assessments of the fusion performance are presented in this paper giving an opportunity for further modelling and extrapolation to the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor and burning plasma reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A numerical evaluation of the ambient air temperature in the Electron-Ion Collider tunnel

The Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) is a next-generation collider-accelerator that may require consistent operating temperature conditions for the beams within the accelerator tunnels to maintain stable operation. Variations in ambient temperature within the tunnel can cause thermal expansion of beampipe and component supports and can negatively affect the tunnel equipment, impacting the stability of the beamline. Modifications will be made to the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to create the EIC, which necessitates a temperature model that addresses these modifications. To approach this problem, the consistency of temperature changes in different tunnel sections was first evaluated by plotting RHIC tunnel temperature data at various times of the day and year. From this data, a tunnel section was selected and a 2D temperature model was created for RHIC, EIC, and EIC with added cooling configurations. Soil temperature data was analyzed to determine the maximum, average, and mode soil temperatures, which were used as boundary conditions in different temperature scenarios. Computational fluid dynamics modeling was used to create 2D temperature profiles for the configurations. From this model, the predicted temperatures indicate that further analysis is required to validate the boundary conditions and benchmark the current conditions to allow the prediction of the tunnel ambient conditions at EIC. This research can be used as a preliminary model to create an EIC tunnel cooling system that will increase the operational stability of the EIC. As a result of my work this summer, I have become familiar with computational fluid dynamics, including creating fluid dynamic simulations using ANSYS Fluent and related software. I have also learned about the project process required for planning large-scale engineering projects.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Technology Strategy Assessment: Findings from Storage Innovations 2030 Thermal Energy Storage

The concept of thermal energy storage (TES) can be traced back to early 19th century, with the invention of the ice box to prevent butter from melting. Modern TES development began with building heating and cooling and concentrated solar thermal technologies for power generation in the early 1900s and late 1970s, respectively. TES systems provide many advantages compared with other long-duration energy storage (LDES) technologies, which include low costs, long operational lives, high energy density, synchronous power generation capability with inertia that inherently stabilizes the grid, and the ability to output both heat and electricity. TES Use Cases TES technologies can couple with most renewable energy systems, including wind, photovoltaic, and concentrated solar thermal energy, and can be used for heat-to-heat, heat-to-electricity, electricity-to-heat, and electricity-to-electricity (bidirectional electricity) applications. The three types of TES that have heat as an input or output are grouped together for the purposes of this report. Retrofitting retired thermal power plants can be a potential cost-effective option for TES with electricity output because they both use a similar thermal-to-electricity type of conversion. Additionally, TES can directly serve heat demand for buildings and industrial processes, displacing fossil fuels to achieve broad decarbonization. Bidirectional Electricity Figure 1 shows a bidirectional electricity TES (ETES) architecture that is emerging as a prime technology for LDES at a grid scale. The ETES technology can utilize existing TES technology infrastructures, has no geological limitations (such as mountains and water for pumped storage hydro, underground natural caverns for compressed-air energy storage, etc.), and is capable of deployment anywhere in the United States and the world for broad uses. Particularly, ETES technology can be placed at retired fossil-fueled thermal power plants to reuse decommissioned assets, protect job security in associated communities, and provide resilient and high-inertia (i.e., spinning) power to the grid. Heat Input and Output There also are many ways to integrate TES within heat-to-electricity, heat-to-heat, and electricity-to-heat applications, such as those used in concentrating solar power (CSP), buildings, district heating, and industry process heat applications. These categories can be further classified for low- and high-temperature applications. High-temperature thermal energy storage (HTTES) heat-to-electricity TES applications are currently associated with CSP deployments for power generation. TES with CSP has been deployed in the Southwestern United States with rich solar resources and has proved its value to the electric grid. Electricity-to-heat and heat-to-heat HTTES applications present great potential for decarbonizing energy-intensive industrial process heat applications [8, 9], such as iron ore processing, iron smelting, cement production, glass manufacturing, mineral processing, and chemical production. Some industrial processes require process heat at temperatures > 1,400°C, so HTTES can be utilized to reduce fuel consumption in those processes through fuel, oxidizer, and process material pre-heating. Thermal energy storage for augmenting existing industrial process heat applications makes a much more attractive economic case because the energy penalty due to thermal-to-electric conversion is eliminated. Co-located applications of power production and heat also can add to the value stacking of integrating utility-scale TES; however, these scenarios are very case specific and not practically possible in many cases. These constraints are primarily attributed to the existing infrastructure being designed, developed, and constructed for many decades around the most economically feasible technologies, such as electricity and a selection of fossil fuels for heat input. Low-temperature TES can be utilized for building and district heating and cooling, as well as some process heat applications in electricity-to-heat and heat-to-heat configurations. Lower temperature TES (LTTES) can be added to heat pump equipment (electric input), either directly interacting with the refrigerant in the condenser or evaporator, or through a secondary heat transfer fluid. It also can be integrated in the building envelope or within the ducts of the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system. Cost-effective integration of TES into buildings adds significant cost, and it is one of the key barriers preventing the commercialization and deployment of TES. The optimal strategy for integrating TES with buildings has yet to be determined for various applications of TES. Nevertheless, thermal storage materials are far less costly per unit of energy stored than electricity storage materials. This means that thermal storage has the potential to reduce the cost to society of energy storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1993

Windshear Database for Forward-Looking Systems Certification

This document contains a description of a comprehensive database that is to be used for certification testing of airborne forward-look windshear detection systems. The database was developed by NASA Langley Research Center, at the request of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), to support the industry initiative to certify and produce forward-look windshear detection equipment. The database contains high resolution, three dimensional fields for meteorological variables that may be sensed by forward-looking systems. The database is made up of seven case studies which have been generated by the Terminal Area Simulation System, a state-of-the-art numerical system for the realistic modeling of windshear phenomena. The selected cases represent a wide spectrum of windshear events. General descriptions and figures from each of the case studies are included, as well as equations for F-factor, radar-reflectivity factor, and rainfall rate. The document also describes scenarios and paths through the data sets, jointly developed by NASA and the FAA, to meet FAA certification testing objectives. Instructions for reading and verifying the data from tape are included.

Switzer, G. F.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Membrane-Confined Iron Oxychloride Nanocatalysts for Highly Efficient Heterogeneous Fenton Water Treatment

Heterogeneous advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) allow for the destruction of aqueous organic pollutants via oxidation by hydroxyl radicals ( • OH). However, practical treatment scenarios suffer from the low availability of short-lived • OH in aqueous bulk, due to both mass transfer limitations and quenching by water constituents, such as natural organic matter (NOM). In this work, we overcome these challenges by loading iron oxychloride catalysts within the pores of a ceramic ultrafiltration membrane, resulting in an internal heterogeneous Fenton reaction that can degrade organics in complex water matrices with pH up to 6.2. With • OH confined inside the nanopores (~ 20 nm), this membrane reactor completely removed various organic pollutants with water fluxes of up to 100 L m –2 h –1 (equivalent to a retention time of 10 s). This membrane, with a pore size that excludes NOM (>300 kDa), selectively exposed smaller organics to •OH within the pores under confinement and showed excellent resiliency to representative water matrices (simulated surface water and sand filtration effluent samples). Moreover, the membrane exhibited sustained AOPs (>24 h) and could be regenerated for multiple cycles. Our results suggest the feasibility of exploiting ultrafiltration membrane-based AOP platforms for organic pollutant degradation in complex water scenarios.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Control of plasmons in doped topological insulators via basis atoms

Collective excitations in topologically nontrivial systems have attracted considerable attention in recent years. Here we study plasmons in the Su-Schrieffer-Heeger model whose low-energy electronic band is only partially filled, such that the system is metallic. Using the random phase approximation, we calculate the intra- and interband polarization functions and determine the bulk plasmonic dispersion from the dielectric function. In this work, we find that the sublattice basis states strongly affect the polarization functions and therefore control the system’s plasmonic excitations. By varying the real-space separation of these local orbitals, one can thus selectively enhance or suppress the plasmonic energies via a tunable trade-off between intraband and interband screening processes. Specifically, this mechanism can be used to stabilize undamped high energy plasmons that have already been reported in related models. We propose scenarios on how to control and observe these effects in experiments.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS1979

Air cushion landing gear applications study

A series of air cushion landing gear (ACLG) applications was studied and potential benefits analyzed in order to identify the most attractive of these. The selected applications are new integrated designs (not retrofits) and employ a modified design approach with improved characteristics and performance. To aid the study, a survey of potential users was made. Applications were evaluated in the light of comments received. A technology scenario is developed, with discussion of problem areas, current technology level and future needs. Feasible development timetables are suggested. It is concluded that near-term development of small-size ACLG trunks, exploration of flight effects and braking are key items. The most attractive applications are amphibious with very large cargo aircraft and small general aviation having the greatest potential.

Earl, T. D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

LOCOMOTIVES - Comprehensive Impact and Cost Assessment Framework of Carbon Lowering Approaches for the US Rail Freight System

The goal of this project is to develop a tool to aid railroads and other stakeholders assess and approach the decarbonization of freight rail operations by identifying new, viable low-carbon energy storage and conversion systems for future locomotive systems and how they should be deployed on the existing US freight rail network. In the first quarter, the project focused on collecting data, establishing a simulation workflow, and engaging industry through the creation of the Industry Advisory Board (IAB). In the second quarter, the project focused on selecting fuel pathways and powertrain technologies, setting performance targets, conducting a techno-economic analyses, and developing the simulation framework that would serve as the backbone of the future toolhead. The third quarter involved developing an industry-oriented interactive dashboard powered by a five-step sequential framework, as well as holding industry advisory board meetings as per the initial technology-to-market plan. In the remaining project quarters, the NUFRIEND dashboard were fine-tuned with the help of IAB member feedback and in-depth scenario analyses were conducted to support the techno-economic analysis of energy sources. Additionally, dashboard documentation, project insights, and open-source code on GitHub were prepared and released. Throughout the project, the team completed testing and analysis of all model components, integrated all initial test scenarios, and conducted stakeholder engagement. Lower-carbon drop-in fuels can be deployed as admixtures and are considered uniform across the network at a desired penetration rate, while hydrogen and battery-electric technology deployment poses a more complex problem as they require significant investments to be made in the siting of refueling/charging facilities and the replacement of locomotive fleets. Thus, strategies for locating and sizing refueling/charging facilities on a railroad’s network to meet their energy demands were developed to inform deployment decisions. To address this challenge, the Northwestern University Freight Rail Infrastructure & Energy Network Decarbonization (NUFRIEND) framework presents a five-step sequential framework to select O-D paths, locate facilities, reroute flows, size facilities, and evaluate the deployment for alternative energy sources that require locomotive powertrains to be converted and new refueling infrastructure to be deployed. The NUFRIEND Framework is an industry-oriented tool for simulating the deployment of new energy technologies across the US freight rail network. The framework provides a comprehensive network-level optimization and scenario simulation tool for decarbonizing the freight rail sector, addressing the uncertainties surrounding technological developments by supporting sensitivity analyses for different operational and technological parameters through a transparent and flexible input module. It offers practical alternatives to diesel locomotives and can be applied for any railroad considering the specific network structure and freight demand, outputting evaluation metrics for the associated emissions and costs relative to diesel operations. A number of relevant simulation scenarios were run and analyzed for key insights on the value of different alternative technologies for freight rail decarbonization. The project developments and findings have been presented at numerous conferences and events.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2015

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

This technical paper documents Kennedy Space Centers Independent Assessment team work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer (CSO) and GSDO management during key programmatic reviews. The assessments provided the GSDO Program with an analysis of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, the team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedys Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB).Based on the composite survivability versus time graphs from the first two assessments, there was a soft knee in the Figure of Merit graphs at eight minutes (ten minutes after egress ordered). Thus, the graphs illustrated to the decision makers that the final emergency egress design selected should have the capability of transporting the flight crew from the top of LC 39B to a safe location in eight minutes or less. Results for the third assessment were dominated by hazards that were classified as instantaneous in nature (e.g. stacking mishaps) and therefore had no effect on survivability vs time to egress the VAB. VAB emergency scenarios that degraded over time (e.g. fire) produced survivability vs time graphs that were line with aerospace industry norms.

Joyner, James J., Sr.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Towards Co-evolution of Membranes and Metabolism

Conceptually, the most robust way to explain how primitive cell-like structures acquired and increased their capabilities is on the basis of Darwinian evolution. A population of protocells containing material that produced more environmentally fit progeny would increase in time at the expense of other protocells. In this scenario, protocellular boundaries were inextricably connected to the metabolism they encapsulated: to be inheritable, early metabolism must have led to an increased rate of growth and division of vesicles and, similarly, transport through vesicle boundaries must have supported the evolution of metabolism. Everything that could not be delivered from the environment had to be produced and retained inside protocells. Despite their importance to the understanding of the origin of life, only a few cases of coupling between metabolism and membrane-related processes have been identified so far. For example, reactions inside fatty-acid vesicles have been linked to their competitive growth and division, and mechanisms by which membrane permeability might have coupled to information polymers have been proposed and explained. Most recently, it has been shown that a dipeptide inside fatty-acid vesicles catalyzes the formation of another dipeptide that binds to vesicle walls and, by doing so, promotes their growth at the expense of other vesicles, thus demonstrating evolutionary advantage of small, membrane-bound peptides. It has been shown that the appearance of phospholipids imparted selective advantage to protocells bound by phospholipid-containing membranes, eventually driving fatty-acid vesicles to extinction. Phospholipid membranes, however, are nearly impermeable to charged species. Yet, the ability to transport ions across membranes was vital for regulating cellular volume, pH homeostasis, generating energy and sensing the environment. To account for this, evolutionary scenarios for the emergence of simple ion channels, protein structures surrounding water-filled pores in the membrane that facilitate ion transport, have been developed. We will review recent progress in experimental and theoretical studies on coupling properties of membranes to metabolism, with the focus on how they impose constraints on scenarios for the origin of life, and discuss how these studies form the basis for future work on this topic.

metabolism↗
DOE OSTI2020

Incorporating FLEX Strategies in Multi-Unit Probabilistic Risk Assessment

The catastrophic Fukushima nuclear accident reminded nuclear community about the possibilities of extreme accident scenarios, including those involving multiple reactor units on the same site. As the responses to the Fukushima accident, the nuclear power industry developed and implemented a series of strategies, including the Diverse and Flexible Coping Strategies (FLEX), to enhance the coping capacities of nuclear power plants (NPPs) under extreme accidents. This study intends to examine the impact of FLEX strategies on the risk from all the reactor units on the same NPP site, including risks from accidents involving a single unit and from accidents involving multiple units. The fundamental, methodological element of this study is Multi-Unit Probabilistic Risk Assessment (MUPRA), which requires a shift in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) from a “one-reactor-at-a-time” mindset to a “considering all reactors sharing a site as a unity” one. An integrated modeling approach for multi-unit event sequence development will be leveraged to develop MUPRA model and address the intra-unit and inter-unit dependencies. Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), a PRA software developed and maintained by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), will serve as the platform for MUPRA modeling. This study selects Loss Of Offsite Power (LOOP) as a representative initiating event, which may occur on a generic two-unit NPP site and impacts both reactor units on the site. First, an MUPRA model, including multi-unit event trees, will be developed to obtain single-unit and multi-unit accident scenarios. Next, different FLEX strategies will be assumed, including FLEX equipment for a unit cannot be used for another unit, FLEX equipment for multiple units can be used in a cross-connected manner, etc. Lastly, the effectiveness of each postulated FLEX strategy will be evaluated by incorporating the corresponding FLEX equipment and deployment logic in the MUPRA model.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stability of a tokamak plasma with diffuse toroidal rotation

The present work considers the stability of a high- $\beta$ , large aspect ratio, circular plasma with diffuse profiles for the safety factor and the angular toroidal frequency (López & Guazzotto, Phys. Plasmas , vol. 24, 032501). An application of the Frieman–Rotenberg formalism results in a system of scalar eigenmode equations whose coupling is retained at the plasma–vacuum transition but is disregarded across the plasma column, which is a standard practice. The solution technique consists of a multidimensional shooting method for the poloidal harmonics; robust initial guesses are constructed by solving the dispersion relation in the static scenario with vanishing magnetic shear. Flow shear appears as a high- $\beta$ toroidal contribution, and we illustrate its destabilizing influence on $n=1$ external kink modes in the presence of ideal and resistive walls. Internal resonances are avoided by means of the selection of appropriate equilibrium parameters. The stabilizing influence of a finite positive average magnetic shear is also exemplified.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗