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The purpose of this project is to estimate the demand for various Urban Air Mobility Concepts (UAM) of Operations and to generate scenarios for use in analysis and simulations. The demand forecast model, previously developed under NASA/NIA Contract No: NNL13AA08B; Task Order No: NNL16AA36T, for an urban on-demand air-taxi commuter concept is the basis for this work.
Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a suite of nine crop models and up to 45 CMIP5 and 34 CMIP6 climate projections for three different forcing scenarios. To make this task computationally tractable, we use a new set of statistical crop model emulators. We find that climate and crop models contribute about equally to overall uncertainty. While the ranges of yield uncertainties under CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections are similar, median impact in aggregate total caloric production is typically more negative for the CMIP6 projections (+1% to −19%) than for CMIP5 (+5% to −13%). In the first half of the 21st century and for individual crops is the spread across crop models typically wider than that across climate models, but we find distinct differences between crops: globally, wheat and maize uncertainties are dominated by the crop models, but soybean and rice are more sensitive to the climate projections. Climate models with very similar global mean warming can lead to very different aggregate impacts so that climate model uncertainties remain a significant contributor to agricultural impacts uncertainty. These results show the utility of large-ensemble methods that allow comprehensively evaluating factors affecting crop yields or other impacts under climate change. The crop model ensemble used here is unbalanced and pulls the assumption that all projections are equally plausible into question. Better methods for consistent model testing, also at the level of individual processes, will have to be developed and applied by the crop modeling community.
This document details the results for a quantitative estimate of the difference in human health and performance risk that crews would face for two hypothetical variations on Mars mission scenarios: an Accelerated Mars Mission (AMM) and a Standard Mars Mission(SMM).NASA goals for Mars mission concepts, duration, and tasks have varied over the years. While neither of the cases considered here are likely to accurately represent the initial mission to Mars, the exercise of evaluating significant differences in mission duration from an astronaut health perspective can provide bounding insight to the level of risk that is likely to be encountered in an eventual Mars mission. Medical Probabilistic Risk Assessment using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM)(1–3)and the NASA Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model (NSCR)(4,5) are used here to help mission planners gain the best insight currently available into the expected magnitude of impacts to astronaut health when undertaking a Mars mission. These impacts occur both in-mission as well as in the long-term health of the astronauts post-mission. These evaluations are currently the best available modeling estimates to characterize and bound the health risks in a proposed mission domain where humans have no experience.
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is developing Autonomous Navigation Guidance and Control (autoNGC) as a flight software system for future onboard use for missions in a variety of orbital regimes, including cislunar space and beyond. This paper describes processor-in-the-loop (PIL) testing using a lunar landing scenario with terrain relative navigation (TRN) and weak-signal GPS. We give an overview of the autoNGC project and describe preliminary navigation simulation results. We also describe the TRN PIL tests on a flight-like development board, using simulated images rendered from Lunar Reconnaissance Orbit high-resolution digital terrain models. The navigation simulations show that weak-signal GPS combined with TRN during a descent from a low lunar parking orbit results in sufficiently low navigation uncertainties to support such a mission profile independent of ground-based navigation. The PIL tests show that onboard image processing and landmark correlation is achievable at a sufficiently high measurement rate.
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.
Pakistan ranks third in the world in terms of mortality attributable to air pollution, with aerosol mass concentrations (PM2.5) consistently well above WHO (World Health Organization) air quality guidelines (AQG). However, regulation is dependent on a sparse network of air quality monitoring stations and insufficient ground data. This study utilizes long-term observations of aerosols and trace gases to characterize and rank the air pollution scenarios and pollution characteristics of 80 selected cities in Pakistan. Datasets used include (1) the Aqua and Terra (AquaTerra) MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Level 2 Collection 6.1 merged Dark Target and Deep Blue (DTB) aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval products; (2) the CAMS (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service) reanalysis PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 data; (3) the MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) reanalysis PM2.5 data, (4) the OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) tropospheric vertical column density (TVCD) of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and VCD of sulfur dioxide (SO2) in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL), (5) the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) Nighttime Lights data, (6) MODIS Collection 6 Version 2 global monthly fire location data (MCD14ML), (7) population density, (8) MODIS Level 3 Collection 6 land cover types, (9) AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) Version 3 Level 2.0 data, and (10) ground-based PM2.5 concentrations from air quality monitoring stations. Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analyses were performed by integrating with ground-based PM2.5 concentrations and the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) air parcel back trajectories to identify potential pollution source areas which are responsible for extreme air pollution in Pakistan. Results show that the ranking of the top polluted cities depends on the type of pollutant considered and the metric used. For example, Jhang, Multan, and Vehari were characterized as the top three polluted cities in Pakistan when considering AquaTerra DTB AOD products; for PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 Lahore, Gujranwala, and Okara were the top three; for tropospheric NO2 VCD Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Islamabad and for PBL SO2 VCD Lahore, Mirpur, and Gujranwala. The results demonstrate that Pakistan’s entire population has been exposed to high PM2.5 concentrations for many years, with a mean annual value of 54.7 μg/cu. m, over all Pakistan from 2003 to 2020. This value exceeds Pakistan’s National Environmental Quality Standards (Pak-NEQS, i.e., <15 μg/cu. m annual mean) for ambient air defined by the Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency (Pak-EPA) as well as the WHO Interim Target-1 (i.e., mean annual PM2.5 <35 μg/cu. m). The spatial analyses of the concentrations of aerosols and trace gases in terms of population density, nighttime lights, land cover types, and fire location data, and the PSCF analysis indicate that Pakistan’s air quality is strongly affected by anthropogenic sources inside of Pakistan, with contributions from surrounding countries. Statistically significant positive (increasing) trends in PM1, PM2.5, PM10, tropospheric NO2 VCD, and SO2 VCD were observed in ~89%, ~67%, ~48%, 91%, and ~88% of the Pakistani cities (80 cities), respectively. This comprehensive analysis of aerosol and trace gas levels, their characteristics in spatio-temporal domains, and their trends over Pakistan, is the first of its kind. Results will be helpful to the Ministry of Climate Change (Government of Pakistan), Pak-EPA, SUPARCO (Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission), policymakers, and the local research community to mitigate air pollution and its effects on human health.
Introduction: Carbon dioxide (CO2) produced by astronauts inside space suits can accumulate to levels that affect health and performance. The human health and performance risks associated with different levels of CO2 exposure in the flight environment remain an area of debate. The purpose of this study is to characterize the limit of acceptable performance (cognitive and physical) decrements and symptom severity for mission operations when subjected to elevated inspired CO2 levels in the spacesuit during contingency EVA scenarios. Methods: This study will create a simulation of a 1-hour contingency EVA walk back to the habitat, incorporating a passive treadmill and a fully immersive virtual reality (VR) simulation of a lunar EVA. Subjects will be asked to walk on a treadmill while breathing partial pressures of CO2 of 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30mmHg for 1 hour at a time. Cognitive performance will be quantified using validated cognitive tests and measures of functional task performance embedded within the VR environment. Test subject symptoms and self-assessment of performance will be evaluated via survey. Results: This study currently has approval from NASA’s Institutional Review Board and has completed the Test Readiness Review process. Next steps for this research study include test subject recruitment, data collection, and analysis. Data collection is planned for calendar year 2022 and 2023. Discussion: This study will provide valuable information regarding how various partial pressures of CO2 exposure impact acute health, as well as cognitive and physical performance during simulated lunar EVA. This information will be vital in the assessment of overall risk associated with current hardware (vehicle and suit) design for upcoming exploration missions. It will also be invaluable for informing future standards and requirements.
The musculoskeletal system of astronauts is subject to physiological changes, potentially leading to injuries due to the exposure to different gravitational environments experienced during spaceflight. These injuries can occur while an astronaut is performing an extravehicular activity (EVA) in space, on lunar or planetary surfaces or while wearing a spacesuit during terrestrial training for an EVA. One area of concern are injuries occurring at the feet and ankles due to a poor fit of the spacesuit boot. These injuries can occur if the boot does not support the ankle sufficiently and the astronaut steps awkwardly, twisting the ankle or foot, during an EVA. The OpenSimTM software can assess EVA induced musculoskeletal injuries for muscle strains, ligament injuries and joint injuries. A modeling and simulation credibility assessment of the OpenSim musculoskeletal modeling and simulation procedures, applied to the boot/ankle injury scenario injury mechanisms that may occur while carrying out tasks in these environments, is performed. These modeling and simulation credibility assessments give information on the credibility of the model’s use in simulating foot/ankle related injury mechanisms.
Asteroid impacts can cause a wide range of damage through multiple potential hazards, from localized blast waves or thermal radiation, to tsunami inundation, to global climatic effects. The level of risk posed by these hazards depends not only upon their extent and severity, but also upon the likelihood of the various damage ranges. Some consequences may be more moderate but very likely, while others may be unlikely but catastrophic. Evaluating the risk from these hazards involves substantial uncertainties across all aspects of the problem, including the properties of the asteroid itself, the specifics of its entry, and the complex high-energy damage physics involved. NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project performs Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessments that use fast-running entry and hazard models to evaluate millions of impact cases representing the distributions of these many uncertain parameters. This paper presents current probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessment modeling tools and approaches used for evaluating specific asteroid impact threat cases. We give an overview of the current PAIR model used to support impact threat scenarios and discuss some of the key applications of these assessment in supporting response decisions and planetary defense preparedness. We then present the results and key findings from the recent 2023 PDC hypothetical impact exercise as an example of the primary types of risk results and metrics being developed to inform and support those mitigation and response decisions.
INTRODUCTION: Carbon dioxide (CO2) produced by astronauts inside space suits can accumulate to levels that may affect health and performance. The human health and performance risks associated with different levels of CO2 exposure in the flight environment remain an area of debate. The purpose of this study is to characterize the limit of acceptable performance (cognitive and physical) decrements and symptom severity for mission operations when subjected to elevated inspired CO2 levels in simulated contingency lunar extravehicular activity (EVA) scenarios. METHODS: This study will create a simulation of a 1-hour, ~2km contingency EVA walk back to a habitat, incorporating a passive treadmill and a fully immersive virtual reality (VR) simulation of a lunar EVA environment. Subjects will be asked to walk on a treadmill while breathing partial pressures of CO2 of 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30mmHg for 1 hour at a time. Cognitive performance will be quantified using validated cognitive tests and measures of functional task performance embedded within the VR environment. Test subject symptoms and self-assessment of performance will be evaluated via survey. RESULTS: This study currently has approval from NASA’s Institutional Review Board and has completed the Test Readiness Review process. Next steps for this research study include test subject recruitment, data collection, and analysis. Data collection is planned for calendar year 2023 and 2024. DISCUSSION: This study will provide valuable information regarding how various partial pressures of CO2 exposure impact acute health, as well as cognitive and physical performance during simulated contingency lunar EVA. This information will enable assessment of health and performance risk associated with spacesuit systems and operations concepts for future exploration missions as well as informing definition of future standards and requirements.
A National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) project developing computer vision algorithms for autonomous flight is producing real-world datasets with cameras mounted on aircraft. In related domains, such as autonomous driving, open datasets are key to innovation and advancement in computer vision and autonomous perception for future Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) operations. Few vision datasets, however, are publicly available in the aviation context. This paper introduces preliminary datasets containing several examples of approach and landing scenarios. The platform aircraft include a multirotor small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) and a crewed helicopter as surrogates for future electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. The dataset provides video imagery with associated inertial navigation system-global positioning system (INS-GPS) position and attitude estimates and other sensors. Surveyed locations of the visual features of the landing area are included. This dataset is the first to be released in an ongoing effort to collect and share large, diverse datasets relevant to autonomous aviation; community critique that can inform and improve future flight campaigns is welcome.
INTRODUCTION: Carbon dioxide (CO2) produced by astronauts inside space suits can accumulate to levels that may affect health and performance. The human health and performance risks associated with different levels of CO2 exposure in the flight environment remain an area of debate. The purpose of this study is to characterize the limit of acceptable performance (cognitive and physical) decrements and symptom severity for mission operations when subjected to elevated inspired CO2 levels in simulated contingency lunar extravehicular activity (EVA) scenarios. METHODS: This study will create a simulation of a 1-hour, ~2km contingency EVA walk back to a habitat, incorporating a passive treadmill and a fully immersive virtual reality (VR) simulation of a lunar EVA environment. Subjects will be asked to walk on a treadmill while breathing partial pressures of CO2 of 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30mmHg for 1 hour at a time. Cognitive performance will be quantified using validated cognitive tests and measures of functional task performance embedded within the VR environment. Test subject symptoms and self-assessment of performance will be evaluated via survey. RESULTS: This study currently has approval from NASA’s Institutional Review Board and has completed the Test Readiness Review process. Next steps for this research study include test subject recruitment, data collection, and analysis. Data collection is planned for calendar year 2023 and 2024. DISCUSSION: This study will provide valuable information regarding how various partial pressures of CO2 exposure impact acute health, as well as cognitive and physical performance during simulated contingency lunar EVA. This information will enable assessment of health and performance risk associated with spacesuit systems and operations concepts for future exploration missions as well as informing definition of future standards and requirements.
This is the slide deck presented at the December 17, 2020 webinar on the 2020 Standard Scenarios report.
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed the Puerto Rico Energy Efficiency Scenario Analysis Tool (PREESAT) to allow stakeholders to estimate the long-term aggregate electricity consumption impacts of various energy efficiency measures in Puerto Rico’s residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. PREESAT is an energy accounting framework that addresses electricity use. These presentation slides provide a summary of the electrical sector in Puerto Rico and an overview of how the PREESAT tool can be used to project energy savings from various energy efficiency measures in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors.
This presentation provides a summary of the 2021 Standard Scenarios report. It was presented in a public webinar on December 15, 2021.
This work showcases a collaboration between leading institutions focusing on integrated assessment modeling (IAM) and life cycle assessment (LCA), sponsored - among others - by the International Energy Agency's Technology Collaboration Program on Bioenergy, Task 45. It presents draft results of a prospective LCA for biofuels across world regions, using regional IAM scenario outputs, and life cycle inventories for country-specific pathways.
A system associated with detecting a cyber-attack and reconstructing events associated with a cyber-attack campaign, is disclosed. The system performs various operations that include receiving an audit data stream associated with cyber events. The system identifies trustworthiness values in a portion of data associated with the cyber events and assigns provenance tags to the portion of the data based on the identified trustworthiness values. An initial visual representation is generated based on the assigned provenance tags to the portion of the data. The initial visual representation is condensed based on a backward traversal of the initial visual representation in identifying a shortest path from a suspect node to an entry point node. A scenario visual representation is generated that specifies nodes most relevant to the cyber events associated with the cyber-attack based on the identified shortest path.A corresponding method and computer-readable medium are also disclosed.
High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs) have excellent characteristics in terms of safety and high thermal efficiency, and they are gaining a large interest from the industry as a candidate of Gen-IV reactors for a wide range of applications. The High Temperature gas-cooled Reactor Pebble-bed Module project (HTR-PM) is one of these designs and where helium gas is used to cool the pebble-bed region that consists of spherical fuel elements moderated with graphite. The HTR-PM design is based on the combined experience from the German pebble-bed reactor program from the 1960s through the 1990s and the HTR-10 experience in China during the 2000s. Idaho National Laboratory has a long experience in modeling of HTGRs working in developing neutronics and thermal hydraulics tools for the proper modeling of these reactors. The neutronics code Griffin has the capability to model pebble depletion . While the thermal hydraulics code Pronghorn was developed mainly to model the pebble bed reactors with the porous media assumption. In this work, an equilibrium core Multiphysics model was developed for the HTR-PM reactor to analyze the depressurized loss of forced cooling accident scenario (DLOFC). This paper is organized as follows: First, a brief description of the reactor and model specifications are provided. Then, the developed Multiphysics model is discussed. Finally, verification results of the steady-state equilibrium core and DLOFC accident are presented followed by a summary of the conclusions.