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Giant phonon anomalies in the proximate Kitaev quantum spin liquid α-RuCl 3

The Kitaev quantum spin liquid epitomizes an entangled topological state, for which two flavors of fractionalized low-energy excitations are predicted: the itinerant Majorana fermion and the Z 2 gauge flux. Here, it was proposed recently that fingerprints of fractional excitations are encoded in the phonon spectra of Kitaev quantum spin liquids through a novel fractional-excitation-phonon coupling. Here, we detect anomalous phonon effects in α-RuCl 3 using inelastic X-ray scattering with meV resolution. At high temperature, we discover interlaced optical phonons intercepting a transverse acoustic phonon between 3 and 7 meV. Upon decreasing temperature, the optical phonons display a large intensity enhancement near the Kitaev energy, J K ~8 meV, that coincides with a giant acoustic phonon softening near the Z 2 gauge flux energy scale. These phonon anomalies signify the coupling of phonon and Kitaev magnetic excitations in α-RuCl 3 and demonstrates a proof-of-principle method to detect anomalous excitations in topological quantum materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Real Time Photon-Counting Receiver for High Photon Efficiency Optical Communications

We present a scalable design for a photon-counting ground receiver based on superconducting nanowire single photon detectors (SNSPDs) and field programmable gate array (FPGA) real-time processing for applications to space-to-ground photon starved links, such as the Orion EM-2 Optical Communication Demonstration (O2O), and future deep space or low transmitter power missions. The receiver is designed to receive a serially concatenated pulse position modulation (SCPPM) waveform, which follows the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) Optical Communications Coding and Synchronization Red Book standard. The receiver design uses multiple individually fiber coupled, 80% detection efficiency commercial SNSPDs in parallel to scale to a required data rate, and is capable of achieving data rates up to 528 Mbps. For efficient fiber coupling from the telescope to the array of parallel detectors that can be scaled both to telescope aperture size and the number of detectors, we use either a single mode fiber (SMF) photonic lantern or a few-mode fiber (FMF) photonic lantern. In this paper we give an overview of the receiver system design, the characteristics of the photonic lanterns, the performance of the SNSPDs, and system level tests. We show that 40 Mbps can be received using a single SNSPD, and discuss aspects for scaling to higher data rates.

Vyhnalek, Brian E.↗

Real Time Photon-Counting Receiver for High Photon Efficiency Optical Communications

We present a scalable design for a photon-counting ground receiver based on superconducting nanowire single photon detectors (SNSPDs) and field programmable gate array (FPGA) real-time processing for applications to space-to-ground photon starved links, such as the Orion EM-2 Optical Communication Demonstration (O2O), and future deep space or low transmitter power missions. The receiver is designed to receive a serially concatenated pulse position modulation (SCPPM) waveform, which follows the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) Optical Communications Coding and Synchronization Red Book standard. The receiver design uses multiple individually fiber coupled, 80% detection efficiency commercial SNSPDs in parallel to scale to a required data rate, and is capable of achieving data rates up to 528 Mbps. For efficient fiber coupling from the telescope to the array of parallel detectors that can be scaled both to telescope aperture size and the number of detectors, we use either a single mode fiber (SMF) photonic lantern or a few-mode fiber (FMF) photonic lantern. In this paper we give an overview of the receiver system design, the characteristics of the photonic lanterns, the performance of the SNSPDs, and system level tests. We show that 40 Mbps can be received using a single SNSPD, and discuss aspects for scaling to higher data rates.

Vyhnalek, Brian E.↗

Future-proofing photovoltaics module reliability through a unifying predictive modeling framework

Solar energy, especially photovoltaics (PV), plays a significant role in the global energy transition required for decarbonization. Technological advancements in increasing efficiencies coupled with cost reductions through economies of scale made PV a cost-competitive energy source set to exceed the milestone of 1 TW globally deployed capacity in 2022. However, ongoing downward price pressure coupled with increasing service life expectations creates tremendous challenges for reliability engineers in ensuring the safe and reliable operation of PV modules and systems over the anticipated service life. Today's reliability research efforts aim for module lifetimes of up to 50 years. Still, our current tools fall short in accurately assessing degradation mechanisms and failure modes over such extended periods. We argue that the well-established PV reliability learning cycle needs to be accelerated to keep up with the rapid technological advancements and high expectations that are put on PV and its role in the global energy transition. In this article, we explore the evolution of the PV reliability learning cycle and highlight the significance that predictive modeling capabilities will have on future PV module reliability. We propose creating a unifying modeling framework - which once established will enable the holistic assessment of PV module reliability, accelerate the PV reliability learning cycle, and bring us closer to quantitative service life predictions of PV modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Vacillations in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

Results are presented from a 35-year integration of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Both ocean and atmosphere are two-level, nonlinear primitive equation models. The global atmospheric model is forced by a steady, zonally symmetric Newtonian heating. The ocean model is solved in a rectangular tropical basin. Heat fluxes between ocean and atmosphere are linear in air-sea temperature differences, and the interfacial stress is proportional to lower-level atmospheric winds. The coupled models produce ENSO-like variability on time scales of 3 to 5 years. Since there is no external time-dependent forcing, these are self-sustained vacillations of the nonlinear system. It is argued that the energetics of the vacillations is that of unstable coupled modes and that the time scale is crucially dependent on the effects of ocean waves propagating in a closed basin.

Schopf, Paul S.↗

Dimensionality reduction of the many-body problem using coupled-cluster subsystem flow equations: classical and quantum computing perspective

We discuss reduced-scaling strategies employing recently introduced sub-system embedding sub-algebras coupled-cluster formalism (SES-CC) to describe many-body systems. These strategies utilize properties of the SES-CC formulations where the equations describing certain classes of sub- systems can be integrated into a computational flows composed coupled eigenvalue problems of reduced dimensionality. Additionally, these flows can be defined at the level of the CC Ansatz defined by selected classes of cluster amplitudes, which define the wave function ”memory” of possible partitionings of the many-body system into constituent sub-systems. One of the possible ways of solving these coupled problems is through implementing procedures, where the information is passed between the sub-systems in a self-consistent manner. As a special case, we consider local flow formulations where the so-called local character of correlation effects can be closely related to properties of sub-system embedding sub-algebras employing localized molecular basis. We also generalize flow equations to the time domain and to downfolding methods utilizing double exponential unitary CC Ansatz (DUCC), where reduced dimensionality of constituent sub-problems offer a possibility of efficient utilization of limited quantum resources in modeling realistic systems.

Electron correlation, quantum chemistry, quantum c↗

Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)

The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6°C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.

Last Interglacial climate↗

Omics-to-Reactive-Transport (ORT): A workflow linking genome-scale metabolic models with reactive transport codes

Motivation: Nutrient and contaminant behavior in the subsurface are governed by multiple coupled hydrobiogeochemical processes which occur across different temporal and spatial scales. Accurate description of macroscopic system behavior requires accounting for the effects of microscopic and especially microbial processes. Microbial processes mediate precipitation and dissolution and change aqueous geochemistry, all of which impacts macroscopic system behavior. As `omics data describing microbial processes is increasingly affordable and available, novel methods for using this data quickly and effectively for improved ecosystem models are needed. Results: We propose a workflow (`Omics to Reactive Transport – ORT) for utilizing metagenomic and environmental data to describe the effect of microbiological processes in macroscopic reactive transport models. This workflow utilizes and couples two open-source software packages: KBase (a software platform for systems biology) and PFLOTRAN (a reactive transport modeling code). We describe the architecture of ORT and demonstrate an implementation using metagenomic and geochemical data from a river system. Our demonstration uses microbiological drivers of nitrification and denitrification to predict nitrogen cycling patterns which agree with those provided with generalized stoichiometries. While our example uses data from a single measurement, our workflow can be applied to spatiotemporal metagenomic datasets to allow for iterative coupling between KBASE and PFLOTRAN. Live, interactive models, which incorporate the results from this narrative into a PFLOTRAN simulation, are available (without login) at https://pflotranmodeling.paf.subsurfaceinsights.com/pflotran-simple-model/.

Rubinstein, Rebecca L↗

Gravity-improved metastability bounds for the Type-I seesaw mechanism

Right-handed neutrinos (RHN) destabilize the electroweak vacuum by increasing its decay rate. In the SM, the latter is dominated by physics at the RG scale at which λ reaches its minimum, ${\mu}_{\ast}^{\textrm{SM}}$ ~10 17 GeV. For large neutrino Yukawa coupling Y ν , RHNs can push μ* beyond the Planck scale, implying that gravitational effects need to be taken into account. In this work, we perform the first comprehensive study of electroweak vacuum metastability in the type-I seesaw mechanism including these effects. Our analysis covers both low- and high-scale seesaw models, with two as well as three RHNs and for multiple values of the Higgs’ non-minimal coupling to gravity. We find that gravitational effects can significantly stabilize the vacuum, leading to weaker metastability bounds. We show that metastability sets the strongest bounds for low-scale seesaws with M N > 1 TeV. For high-scale seesaws, we find upper bounds on the allowed masses for the RHNs, which are relevant for high-scale leptogenesis. We also point out that Tr(${Y}_{\nu}^{\dagger}$Y ν ), which is commonly used to express these metastability bounds, cannot be used for all of parameter space. Instead, we argue that bounds can always be expressed reliably through Tr(${Y}_{\nu}^{\dagger}$Y ν ${Y}_{\nu}^{\dagger}$Y ν ). Lastly, we use this insight to develop a new technique for an easier RG analysis applicable to scenarios with degenerate RHN masses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Technical descriptions of the experimental dynamical downscaling simulations over North America by the CAM–MPAS variable-resolution model

Abstract. Comprehensive assessment of climate datasets is important for communicating model projections and associated uncertainties to stakeholders. Uncertainties can arise not only from assumptions and biases within the model but also from external factors such as computational constraint and data processing. To understand sources of uncertainties in global variable-resolution (VR) dynamical downscaling, we produced a regional climate dataset using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS; dynamical core version 4.0) coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM; version 5.4), which we refer to as CAM–MPAS hereafter. This document provides technical details of the model configuration, simulations, computational requirements, post-processing, and data archive of the experimental CAM–MPAS downscaling data. The CAM–MPAS model is configured with VR meshes featuring higher resolutions over North America as well as quasi-uniform-resolution meshes across the globe. The dataset includes multiple uniform- (240 and 120 km) and variable-resolution (50–200, 25–100, and 12–46 km) simulations for both the present-day (1990–2010) and future (2080–2100) periods, closely following the protocol of the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment. A deviation from the protocol is the pseudo-warming experiment for the future period, using the ocean boundary conditions produced by adding the sea surface temperature and sea-ice changes from the low-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to the present-day ocean state from a reanalysis product. Some unique aspects of global VR models are evaluated to provide background knowledge to data users and to explore good practices for modelers who use VR models for regional downscaling. In the coarse-resolution domain, strong resolution sensitivity of the hydrological cycles exists over the tropics but does not appear to affect the midlatitude circulations in the Northern Hemisphere, including the downscaling target of North America. The pseudo-warming experiment leads to similar responses of large-scale circulations to the imposed radiative and boundary forcings in the CAM–MPAS and MPI-ESM-LR models, but their climatological states in the historical period differ over various regions, including North America. Such differences are carried to the future period, suggesting the importance of the base state climatology. Within the refined domain, precipitation statistics improve with higher resolutions, and such statistical inference is verified to be negligibly influenced by horizontal remapping during post-processing. Limited (≈50 % slower) throughput of the current code is found on a recent many-core/wide-vector high-performance computing system, which limits the lengths of the 12–46 km simulations and indirectly affects sampling uncertainty. Our experience shows that global and technical aspects of the VR downscaling framework require further investigations to reduce uncertainties for regional climate projection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Large-scale effects on the regulation of tropical sea surface temperature

The dominant terms in the surface energy budget of the tropical oceans are absorption of solar radiation and evaporative cooling. If it is assumed that relative humidity in the boundary layer remains constant, evaporative cooling will increase rapidly with sea surface temperature (SST) because of the strong temperature dependence of saturation water vapor pressure. The resulting stabilization of SST provided by evaporative cooling is sufficient to overcome positive feedback contributed by the decrease of surface net longwave cooling with increasing SST. Evaporative cooling is sensitive to small changes in boundary-layer relative humidity. Large and negative shortwave cloud forcing in the regions of highest SST are supported by the moisture convergence associated with largescale circulations. In the descending portions of these circulations the shortwave cloud forcing is suppressed. When the effect of these circulations is taken into account by spatial averaging, the area-averaged cloud forcing shows no sensitivity to area-averaged SST changes associated with the 1987 warming event in the tropical Pacific. While the shortwave cloud forcing is large and important in the convective regions, the importance of its role in regulating the average temperature of the tropics and in modulating temperature gradients within the tropics is less clear. A heuristic model of SST is used to illustrate the possible role of large-scale atmospheric circulations on SST in the tropics and the coupling between SST gradients and mean tropical SST. The intensity of large-scale circulations responds sensitivity to SST gradients and affects the mean tropical SST by supplying dry air to the planetary boundary layer. Large SST gradients generate vigorous circulations that increase evaporation and reduce the mean SST.

Hartmann, Dennis L.↗

Challenges to modeling the Sun-Earth System: A Workshop Summary

This special issue of the Journal of' Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics is a compilation of 23 papers presented at The 2004 Huntsville Modeling Workshop: Challenges to Modeling thc San-Earth System held in Huntsville, AB on October 18-22, 2004. The title of the workshop appropriately captures the theme of what was presented and discussed by the 120 participants. Currently, end-to-end modeling of the Sun-Earth system is a major goal of the National Space Weather and NASA living with a star (LWS) programs. While profound advances have been made in modeling isolated regions of the Sun-Earth system, minimal progress has been achieved in modeling the end-to-end system. The transfer of mass, energy and momentum through the coupled Sun-Earth system spans a wide range of scales inn time and space. The uncertainty in the underlying physics responsible for coupling contiguous regions of the Sun-Earth system is recognized as a significant barrier to progress

Spann, James F.↗

Vacuum stability in inert higgs doublet model with right-handed neutrinos

We analyze the vacuum stability in the inert Higgs doublet extension of the Standard Model (SM), augmented by right-handed neutrinos (RHNs) to explain neutrino masses at tree level by the seesaw mechanism. We make a comparative study of the high- and low-scale seesaw scenarios and the effect of the Dirac neutrino Yukawa couplings on the stability of the Higgs potential. Bounds on the scalar quartic couplings and Dirac Yukawa couplings are obtained from vacuum stability and perturbativity considerations. These bounds are found to be relevant only for low-scale seesaw scenarios with relatively large Yukawa couplings. The regions corresponding to stability, metastability and instability of the electroweak vacuum are identified. These theoretical constraints give a very predictive parameter space for the couplings and masses of the new scalars and RHNs which can be tested at the LHC and future colliders. The lightest non-SM neutral CP-even/odd scalar can be a good dark matter candidate and the corresponding collider signatures are also predicted for the model.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

ORT: a workflow linking genome-scale metabolic models with reactive transport codes

Abstract Motivation Nutrient and contaminant behavior in the subsurface are governed by multiple coupled hydrobiogeochemical processes which occur across different temporal and spatial scales. Accurate description of macroscopic system behavior requires accounting for the effects of microscopic and especially microbial processes. Microbial processes mediate precipitation and dissolution and change aqueous geochemistry, all of which impacts macroscopic system behavior. As ‘omics data describing microbial processes is increasingly affordable and available, novel methods for using this data quickly and effectively for improved ecosystem models are needed. Results We propose a workflow (‘Omics to Reactive Transport—ORT) for utilizing metagenomic and environmental data to describe the effect of microbiological processes in macroscopic reactive transport models. This workflow utilizes and couples two open-source software packages: KBase (a software platform for systems biology) and PFLOTRAN (a reactive transport modeling code). We describe the architecture of ORT and demonstrate an implementation using metagenomic and geochemical data from a river system. Our demonstration uses microbiological drivers of nitrification and denitrification to predict nitrogen cycling patterns which agree with those provided with generalized stoichiometries. While our example uses data from a single measurement, our workflow can be applied to spatiotemporal metagenomic datasets to allow for iterative coupling between KBase and PFLOTRAN. Availability and implementation Interactive models available at https://pflotranmodeling.paf.subsurfaceinsights.com/pflotran-simple-model/. Microbiological data available at NCBI via BioProject ID PRJNA576070. ORT Python code available at https://github.com/subsurfaceinsights/ort-kbase-to-pflotran. KBase narrative available at https://narrative.kbase.us/narrative/71260 or static narrative (no login required) at https://kbase.us/n/71260/258. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FilDReaMS: II. Application to the analysis of the relative orientations between filaments and the magnetic field in four Herschel fields

Context. Both simulations and observations of the interstellar medium show that the study of the relative orientations between filamentary structures and the magnetic field can bring new insight into the role played by magnetic fields in the formation and evolution of filaments and in the process of star formation. Aims. We provide a first application of FilDReaMS, the new method presented in the companion paper to detect and analyze filaments in a given image. The method relies on a template that has the shape of a rectangular bar with variable width. Our goal is to investigate the relative orientations between the detected filaments and the magnetic field. Methods. We apply FilDReaMS to a small sample of four Herschel fields (G210, G300, G82, G202) characterized by different Galactic environments and different evolutionary stages. First, we look for the most prevalent bar widths, and we examine the networks formed by filaments of different bar widths as well as their hierarchical organization. Second, we compare the filament orientations to the magnetic field orientation inferred from Planck polarization data and, for the first time, we study the statistics of the relative orientation angle as functions of both spatial scale and H2 column density. Results. We find preferential relative orientations in the four Herschel fields: small filaments with low column densities tend to be slightly more parallel than perpendicular to the magnetic field; in contrast, large filaments, which all have higher column densities, are oriented nearly perpendicular (or, in the case of G202, more nearly parallel) to the magnetic field. In the two nearby fields (G210 and G300), we observe a transition from mostly parallel to mostly perpendicular relative orientations at an H 2 column density ≃ 1.1 × 10 21 cm -2 and 1.4 × 10 21 cm -2 , respectively, consistent with the results of previous studies. Conclusions. Our results confirm the existence of a coupling between magnetic fields at cloud scales and filaments at smaller scale. They also illustrate the potential of combining Herschel and Planck observations, and they call for further statistical analyses with our dedicated method.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Anisotropic Laminar Piezocomposite Actuator Incorporating Machined PMN-PT Single Crystal Fibers

The design, fabrication, and testing of a flexible, laminar, anisotropic piezoelectric composite actuator utilizing machined PMN-32%PT single crystal fibers is presented. The device consists of a layer of rectangular single crystal piezoelectric fibers in an epoxy matrix, packaged between interdigitated electrode polyimide films. Quasistatic free-strain measurements of the single crystal device are compared with measurements from geometrically identical specimens incorporating polycrystalline PZT-5A and PZT-5H piezoceramic fibers. Free-strain actuation of the single crystal actuator at low bipolar electric fields (+/- 250 V/mm) is approximately 400% greater than that of the baseline PZT-5A piezoceramic device, and 200% greater than that of the PZT-5H device. Free-strain actuation under high unipolar electric fields (0-4kV/mm) is approximately 200% of the PZT-5A baseline device, and 150% of the PZT-5H alternate piezoceramic device. Performance increases at low field are qualitatively consistent with predicted increases based on scaling the low-field d33 piezoelectric constants of the respective piezoelectric materials. High-field increases are much less than scaled d33 estimates, but appear consistent with high-field freestrain measurements reported for similar bulk single-crystal and piezoceramic compositions. Measurements of single crystal actuator capacitance and coupling coefficient are also provided. These properties were poorly predicted using scaled bulk material dielectric and coupling coefficient data. Rules-of-mixtures calculations of the effective elastic properties of the single crystal device and estimated actuation work energy densities are also presented. Results indicate longitudinal stiffnesses significantly lower (50% less) than either piezoceramic device. This suggests that single-crystal piezocomposite actuators will be best suited to low induced-stress, high strain and deflection applications.

Wilkie, W. Keats↗

Reynolds-number scaling of wall-pressure–velocity correlations in wall-bounded turbulence

Wall-pressure fluctuations are a practically robust input for real-time control systems aimed at modifying wall-bounded turbulence. The scaling behaviour of the wall-pressure–velocity coupling requires investigation to properly design a controller with such input data so that it can actuate upon the desired turbulent structures. A comprehensive database from direct numerical simulations (DNS) of turbulent channel flow is used for this purpose, spanning a Reynolds-number range$Re_\tau \approx 550\unicode{x2013}5200$. Spectral analysis reveals that the streamwise velocity is most strongly coupled to the linear term of the wall pressure, at a Reynolds-number invariant distance-from-the-wall scaling of$\lambda _x/y \approx 14$(and$\lambda _x/y \approx 8$for the wall-normal velocity). When extending the analysis to both homogeneous directions in$x$and$y$, the peak coherence is centred at$\lambda _x/\lambda _z \approx 2$and$\lambda _x/\lambda _z \approx 1$for$p_w$and$u$, and$p_w$and$v$, respectively. A stronger coherence is retrieved when the quadratic term of the wall pressure is concerned, but there is only little evidence for a wall-attached-eddy type of scaling. An experimental dataset comprising simultaneous measurements of wall pressure and velocity complements the DNS-based findings at one value of$Re_\tau \approx 2$k, with ample evidence that the DNS-inferred correlations can be replicated with experimental pressure data subject to significant levels of (acoustic) facility noise. It is furthermore shown that velocity-state estimations can be achieved with good accuracy by including both the linear and quadratic terms of the wall pressure. An accuracy of up to 72 % in the binary state of the streamwise velocity fluctuations in the logarithmic region is achieved; this corresponds to a correlation coefficient of$\approx$0.6. This thus demonstrates that wall-pressure sensing for velocity-state estimation – e.g. for use in real-time control of wall-bounded turbulence – has merit in terms of its realization at a range of Reynolds numbers.

Mechanics↗

Grid Cost and Total Emissions Reductions Through Mass Deployment of Geothermal Heat Pumps for Building Heating and Cooling Electrification in the United States

This report presents the results of a study on the potential grid impacts of national-scale mass deployment of geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) coupled with weatherization in single-family homes (SFHs) from 2022 to 2050. GHPs are a technology readiness level 10, commercially available technology across the United States. This study is an impact analysis only; installed costs and available land areas for installing GHPs are not accounted for in determining their estimated deployment. The three scenarios studied were (1) continuing to operate the grid as it is today (the Base scenario), (2) a scenario to reach 95% grid emissions reductions by 2035 and 100% clean electricity by 2050 (the Grid Decarbonization scenario), and (3) a scenario in which the Grid Decarbonization scenario is expanded to include the electrification of wide portions of the economy, including building heating (the Electrification Futures Study or EFS scenario). The analysis team modeled each of these three scenarios with and without GHP deployment to a large percentage of US building floor space. In all cases, deployment of approximately 5 million GHPs per year demonstrated system cost savings on the grid, consumer fuel cost savings through eliminated fuel combustion for space heating, and CO 2 emission reductions from avoided on-site fuel combustion—and, in the case of the Base scenario, CO 2 emissions reductions from the electric power sector. GHPs have traditionally been viewed as a building energy technology. The most notable result of this study, however, is the demonstration that GHPs coupled with weatherization in SFHs are primarily a grid cost reduction tool and technology that, when deployed at a national scale, also substantially reduces CO 2 emissions, even in the absence of any other decarbonization policy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗