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At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Selecting representative geological realizations to model subsurface CO 2 storage under uncertainty

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one of the quickest and most effective solutions for reducing carbon emissions. The majority of subsurface storage occurs in saline aquifers, for which geological information is lacking which in turn results in geological uncertainty. To evaluate uncertainty in CO 2 injection projections, the use of multiple geological realizations (GRs) has been practiced very commonly. In this approach, hundreds or thousands of high-resolution GRs is used that quickly becomes computationally expensive. This issue can be addressed with representative geological realizations (RGRs) that preserve the uncertainty domain of the ensemble GRs. Here, in this study, we propose the use of unsupervised machine learning (UML) frameworks, including dissimilarity measurement, dimensionality reduction, clustering and sampling algorithms ta select a predetermined number of RGRs. We compare the simulation outputs of the RGR sets and the ensemble using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to select the best UML. The UML frameworks and their associated selection processes are evaluated using a saline aquifer with a single CO 2 injection well and 200 GRs with varying uncertain petrophysical characteristics. The best UML framework is selected to use only 5% of the GRs while maintaining the uncertainty domain of the ensemble GRs. In addition, the best UML framework is tested using a saline aquifer with three CO 2 injection wells and varied GRs. The results show that our proposed UML framework can be used to choose RGRs, capturing the whole uncertainty domain. Our approach leads to a significant reduction in the computational cost associated with scenario testing, decision-making, and development planning for CO 2 storage sites under geological uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scaling of Shear Rheology of Concentrated Charged Colloidal Suspensions across Glass Transition

Electrostatic interparticle interactions are a key component in controlling and designing rheological characteristics of concentrated charged colloidal suspensions. Herein, we investigate electroviscous effects on shear rheology using highly charged silica particles. By fixing the volume fraction but varying the salinity, the system undergoes a glass transition as evidenced by the evolution of the yield stress and zero-shear viscosity. We show that the steady shear viscosities obey a critical scaling relation that scales the flow curves into a super- and a sub-critical branch with glass transition salinity serving as the bifurcation point; we also demonstrate an isoviscosity scaling that collapses all isoviscosity lines into a single master curve that exhibits no singularity. Based on each scaling relation, in conjunction with common modeling equations, the quantitative relationships between the shear viscosity, stress, and salinity are established. This study demonstrates a new framework to model the steady shear rheology of concentrated charged colloids.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Increased Cuticle Waxes by Overexpression of WSD1 Improves Osmotic Stress Tolerance in Arabidopsis thaliana and Camelina sativa

To ensure global food security under the changing climate, there is a strong need for developing ‘climate resilient crops’ that can thrive and produce better yields under extreme environmental conditions such as drought, salinity, and high temperature. To enhance plant productivity under the adverse conditions, we constitutively overexpressed a bifunctional wax synthase/acyl-CoA:diacylglycerol acyltransferase (WSD1) gene, which plays a critical role in wax ester synthesis in Arabidopsis stem and leaf tissues. The qRT-PCR analysis showed a strong upregulation of WSD1 transcripts by mannitol, NaCl, and abscisic acid (ABA) treatments, particularly in Arabidopsis thaliana shoots. Gas chromatography and electron microscopy analyses of Arabidopsis seedlings overexpressing WSD1 showed higher deposition of epicuticular wax crystals and increased leaf and stem wax loading in WSD1 transgenics compared to wildtype (WT) plants. WSD1 transgenics exhibited enhanced tolerance to ABA, mannitol, drought and salinity, which suggested new physiological roles for WSD1 in stress response aside from its wax synthase activity. Transgenic plants were able to recover from drought and salinity better than the WT plants. Furthermore, transgenics showed reduced cuticular transpirational rates and cuticle permeability, as well as less chlorophyll leaching than the WT. The knowledge from Arabidopsis was translated to the oilseed crop Camelina sativa (L.) Crantz. Similar to Arabidopsis, transgenic Camelina lines overexpressing WSD1 also showed enhanced tolerance to drought stress. Our results clearly show that the manipulation of cuticular waxes will be advantageous for enhancing plant productivity under a changing climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Deterministic and Statistical Models for Water Quality Compliance Forecasting in the San Joaquin River Basin, California

Model selection for water quality forecasting depends on many factors including analyst expertise and cost, stakeholder involvement and expected performance. Water quality forecasting in arid river basins is especially challenging given the importance of protecting beneficial uses in these environments and the livelihood of agricultural communities. In the agriculture-dominated San Joaquin River Basin of California, real-time salinity management (RTSM) is a state-sanctioned program that helps to maximize allowable salt export while protecting existing basin beneficial uses of water supply. The RTSM strategy supplants the federal total maximum daily load (TMDL) approach that could impose fines associated with exceedances of monthly and annual salt load allocations of up to $1 million per year based on average year hydrology and salt load export limits. The essential components of the current program include the establishment of telemetered sensor networks, a web-based information system for sharing data, a basin-scale salt load assimilative capacity forecasting model and institutional entities tasked with performing weekly forecasts of river salt assimilative capacity and scheduling west-side drainage export of salt loads. Web-based information portals have been developed to share model input data and salt assimilative capacity forecasts together with increasing stakeholder awareness and involvement in water quality resource management activities in the river basin. Two modeling approaches have been developed simultaneously. The first relies on a statistical analysis of the relationship between flow and salt concentration at three compliance monitoring sites and the use of these regression relationships for forecasting. The second salt load forecasting approach is a customized application of the Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF), a watershed water quality simulation model that has been configured to estimate daily river salt assimilative capacity and to provide decision support for real-time salinity management at the watershed level. Analysis of the results from both model-based forecasting approaches over a period of five years shows that the regression-based forecasting model, run daily Monday to Friday each week, provided marginally better performance. However, the regression-based forecasting model assumes the same general relationship between flow and salinity which breaks down during extreme weather events such as droughts when water allocation cutbacks among stakeholders are not evenly distributed across the basin. A recent test case shows the utility of both models in dealing with an exceedance event at one compliance monitoring site recently introduced in 2020.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans

Abstract Changes in ocean heat content (OHC), salinity, and stratification provide critical indicators for changes in Earth’s energy and water cycles. These cycles have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse gasses and other anthropogenic substances by human activities, driving pervasive changes in Earth’s climate system. In 2022, the world’s oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum. According to IAP/CAS data, the 0–2000 m OHC in 2022 exceeded that of 2021 by 10.9 ± 8.3 ZJ (1 Zetta Joules = 10 21 Joules); and according to NCEI/NOAA data, by 9.1 ± 8.7 ZJ. Among seven regions, four basins (the North Pacific, North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, and southern oceans) recorded their highest OHC since the 1950s. The salinity-contrast index, a quantification of the “salty gets saltier—fresh gets fresher” pattern, also reached its highest level on record in 2022, implying continued amplification of the global hydrological cycle. Regional OHC and salinity changes in 2022 were dominated by a strong La Niña event. Global upper-ocean stratification continued its increasing trend and was among the top seven in 2022.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Flow Directions and Ages of Subsurface Water in a Salt Marsh System Constrained by Isotope Tracing

Salt marshes are dynamic hydrologic systems where terrestrial groundwater, terrestrial surface water, and seawater mix due to bi-directional flows and pressure gradients. Due to the counteracting terrestrial and marine forcings that control these environments, we do not comprehensively understand water fluxes in these complex coastal systems. To understand the water sources, flow directions, and velocities in salt marsh porewater, we employed a combination of geochemical tracers and analytical models across a hillslope-to-salt marsh continuum in a salt marsh experiencing daily inundation of estuarine surface water (SW) from tides and mixing of fresh seasonal groundwater. We used tritium ( 3 H) as a hydrologic tracer to assess porewater ages and stable water isotope ($\delta$ 2 H and $\delta$ 18 O) analyses to separate isotopically distinct estuarine and terrestrial groundwater across different depths and landscape positions in the study transect. We employed electrical conductivity to constrain the role of source mixing and evapotranspiration in salt marsh hydrology. Salinity and stable isotopes revealed that transpiration, rather than evaporation, increased subsurface water salinity to concentrations above estuarine SW during summer. Elevated salinity at depth indicated that salt marsh subsurface water is recharged during the dry growing season. Seasonal recharge patterns drive long-term deep subsurface water dynamics across the salt marsh, with 3 H ages of 3–7 years, and daily tidal cycles drive short-term shallow porewater dynamics with 3 H ages of 0 ± 3.6 years. Furthermore, our conceptual understanding of the spatiotemporal changes in SW-subsurface water interactions at the terrestrial-marine interface quantifies the hydrological constraints we are missing to improve our understanding of biogeochemical cycles within the salt marsh.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Fresh Take: Seasonal Changes in Terrestrial Freshwater Inputs Impact Salt Marsh Hydrology and Vegetation Dynamics

Abstract Salt marshes exist at the terrestrial-marine interface, providing important ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling and carbon sequestration. Tidal inputs play a dominant role in salt marsh porewater mixing, and terrestrially derived freshwater inputs are increasingly recognized as important sources of water and solutes to intertidal wetlands. However, there remains a critical gap in understanding the role of freshwater inputs on salt marsh hydrology, and how this may impact marsh subsurface salinity and plant productivity. Here, we address this knowledge gap by examining the hydrologic behavior, porewater salinity, and pickleweed ( Sarcocornia pacifica also known as Salicornia pacifica) plant productivity along a salt marsh transect in an estuary along the central coast of California. Through the installation of a suite of hydrometric sensors and routine porewater sampling and vegetation surveys, we sought to understand how seasonal changes in terrestrial freshwater inputs impact salt marsh ecohydrologic processes. We found that salt marsh porewater salinity, shallow subsurface saturation, and pickleweed productivity are closely coupled with elevated upland water level during the winter and spring, and more influenced by tidal inputs during the summer and fall. This seasonal response indicates a switch in salt marsh hydrologic connectivity with the terrestrial upland that impacts ecosystem functioning. Through elucidating the interannual impacts of drought on salt marsh hydrology, we found that the severity of drought and historical precipitation can impact contemporary hydrologic behavior and the duration and timing of the upland-marsh hydrologic connectivity. This implies that the sensitivity of salt marshes to climate change involves a complex interaction between sea level rise and freshwater inputs that vary at seasonal to interannual timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of an anti-clogging perforated plate atomizer for a zero liquid discharge humidification-dehumidification desalination system

An anti-clogging perforated plate atomizer is designed for high temperature and salinity applications in a novel solar-powered zero liquid discharge humidification-dehumidification desalination system (US Patent Application US62882953). Herein this paper presents a detailed discussion on its design, and operation. Experiments are performed on seven atomizers to study the effect of design, and operating parameters on spray cone angle, and average droplet diameter. Spray cone angle remains constant with change in air mass flux, and increases with increasing orifice diameter, and manifold diameter. It also increases initially with water mass flow rate, and manifold height, before attaining a constant value. Average droplet diameter increases with increasing water mass flow rate, and decreasing air mass flux, orifice diameter, and manifold diameter. Further, anti-clogging performance of the atomizer is tested with hypersaline water of 100,000 ppm total dissolved solid (NaCl) at elevated temperatures such as air at 175 °C and saline water at 45 °C. Results show no clogging for 2–13 h of operation. Near-complete suppression of atomizer clogging makes our new additively-manufactured perforated plate atomizer an ideal fit for high salinity, and zero liquid discharge humidification-dehumidification desalination systems. Additionally, its open-surface design allows additional surface modifications to further reduce clogging, and enhance self-cleaning characteristics.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimization-based modeling and analysis of brine reflux osmotically assisted reverse osmosis for application toward zero liquid discharge systems

Significant amounts of high-salinity wastewater generated by water-intensive industrial activities such as shale oil and gas production have raised serious environmental concerns in recent years. Existing and emerging desalination technologies offer promise to manage these high salinity wastewater streams while simultaneously producing fresh water that could be diverted for beneficial uses. Osmotically assisted reverse osmosis (OARO) is one such emerging desalination technology capable of handling hypersaline brines and achieving high recoveries. However, rigorous modeling and analysis is needed to evaluate the process performance, energy consumption, and treatment cost of various OARO configurations. Here, this work presents detailed modeling and analysis of brine-reflux OARO (BR-OARO) system and compares it with other commonly discussed configurations, including cascading osmotically mediated reverse osmosis (COMRO), consecutive loop OARO, and split feed counterflow RO, through a cost optimization-based framework. We analyze and compare the treatment costs, membrane area, specific energy consumption, and design parameters of the aforementioned configurations with the ultimate goal of achieving zero liquid discharge (ZLD). The results indicate that the BR-OARO system with treatment cost of 5.1 US $/m 3 of produced water with 10% salinity outperforms other configurations in terms of number of stages needed, treatment cost, membrane area, and energy consumption.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Origin of water masses in Floridan Aquifer System revealed by 81 Kr

Groundwater in coastal aquifers serves as an essential resource in densely populated areas throughout the world. However, hydrological connection to the ocean leaves it at risk of salinization via changes in climate and hydrological cycles. Therefore, an accurate hydrological characterization of coastal aquifers is of the utmost importance. Although localized salinization of shallow aquifers has commonly been studied, geochemical constraints on the time scale of regional freshwater and seawater in coastal aquifers are limited especially in carbonate aquifers. Such information is not only crucial for water resource management, but also for understanding solute flux over the land-ocean boundary and for interpreting the geochemical signatures that each water mass carries. Toward this goal, we report tracer-based, subsurface residence times of groundwater in the Floridan Aquifer System in southern Florida, which is one of the most productive aquifers on Earth. The first application of Kr 81-an emerging tracer of old groundwater-to this aquifer has identified freshwater recharge during the last glacial period as anticipated from previous studies using other geochemical tools including radiocarbon, stable isotopes and noble gas concentrations. Moreover, freshwater of Holocene age was also detected at 100 km-distance from the recharge area, suggesting the possibility of an active flow system in the upgradient region. A contribution of fossil seawater that predates the last glacial maximum was locally identified, suggesting slow seawater circulation and limited but significant solute flux from the ocean into the aquifer for dolomitization. This also implies that the deep saline coastal groundwater can potentially serve as a paleo-seawater archive.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Capacity Assessment and Cost Analysis of Geologic Storage of Hydrogen: A Case Study in Intermountain-West Region USA

Hydrogen is an integral component of the current energy transition roadmap to decarbonize the economy and create an environmentally-sustainable future. However, surface storage options (e.g., tanks) do not provide the required capacity or durability to deploy a regional or nationwide hydrogen economy. In this study, we have analyzed the techno-economic feasibility of the geologic storage of hydrogen in depleted gas reservoirs, salt caverns, and saline aquifers in the Intermountain-West (I-WEST) region. We have identified the most favorable candidate sites for hydrogen storage and estimated the volumetric storage capacity. Our results show that the geologic storage of hydrogen can provide at least 72% of total energy consumption of the I-WEST region in 2020. We also calculated the capital and levelized costs of each storage option. We found that a depleted gas reservoir is the most cost-effective candidate among the three geologic storage options. Interestingly, the cushion gas type plays a significant role in the storage cost when we consider hydrogen storage in saline aquifers. The levelized costs of hydrogen storage in depleted gas reservoirs, salt caverns, and saline aquifers with large-scale storage capacity are approximately $\$$1.15, $\$$2.50, and $\$$3.27 per kg of H 2 , respectively. Here, this work provides essential guidance for the geologic hydrogen storage in the I-WEST region.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cost optimization of high recovery single stage gap membrane distillation

Estimating the cost of membrane distillation (MD) processes at scale is confounded by the vast array of possible process configurations, module configurations, and operating conditions and the extreme sensitivity of MD costs to these parameters. This work develops a comprehensive MD cost optimization framework for minimizing the levelized cost of water (LCOW) as a function of feed salinity and temperature. Our single stage gap MD model fully captures solution properties, heat transfer, and mass transfer relationships in the modules to determine the cost optimal design as a function of multiple decision variables, including process configuration (feed location and connectivity between the hot and cold-side), the gap type (air, permeate, conductive), equipment sizes (membrane, heater, chiller, and heat exchanger units), and operating conditions (flow rates, hot and cold side temperatures, and heating and cooling duties). We estimate that the minimum LCOW of conductive gap MD ranges between $\$$10 and $\$$16 per m 3 for feed salinities of 25 g/L to 200 g/L and water recoveries of 30%–75%. Further, we update several heuristic assumptions for cost optimal system operation, including: increased thermal conductivity of the gap decreases system costs; cost optimal MD operates at the highest allowable temperature; and the LCOW is a strong function of brine salinity. Finally, we find that improving membrane properties and lowering heating and cooling costs will provide only modest reductions in costs (<25%).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fouling mechanism in airblast atomizers and its suppression for water desalination

A detailed experimental study is presented on fouling behavior of the anti-clogging perforated plate atomizer designed for high salinity applications, and compared with a conventional (plain-jet) airblast atomizer. Low-pressure regions around fast moving air in the outer layer of spray (as in conventional atomizers: plain-jet and prefilming) due to Venturi suction were identified as the root cause of atomizer clogging, as they facilitate salt accumulation on the atomizer surface from spray. Accordingly, severe atomizer fouling, and fluctuations in spray cone angle were observed in the conventional airblast atomizer over 2 h at 100°C air and 50°C saline (44° to 76° at 35,000 ppm, and 44° to 91° at 100,000 ppm). In this regard, the perforated plate atomizer provides a novel liquid-film airblast atomization by maintaining a liquid-annulus film (around the air outlet) as the outer layer of spray. Doing so we achieved nearly complete suppression of fouling, and spray cone angle fluctuations (28° ± 1° at 35,000 ppm, and 30° ± 1° at 100,000 ppm). Later, novel liquid-film atomization was adopted in the conventional airblast atomizer. While, the conventional airblast atomization needed atomizer cleaning/maintenance after 35 min for 175°C air and 65°C saline at 100,000 ppm, the liquid-film atomization showed no sign of fouling over 14 h. Hence, current work establishes a benchmark liquid-film airblast atomization mechanism in the anti-clogging perforated plate atomizer for complete suppression of fouling in airblast atomization. Furthermore, this extends the application of airblast atomizers from high evaporation jet engines to ZLD-HDH desalination systems, spraying, powder metallurgy, pharmaceuticals and hospitals, and spray drying and cooling.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Component innovations for lower cost mechanical vapor compression

Despite significant capital and operating costs, mechanical vapor compression (MVC) remains the preferred technology for challenging brine concentration applications. Here, this work seeks to assess the dependence of MVC costs on feedwater salinity and desired water recovery and to quantify the value of improved component performance or reduced component costs for reducing the levelized cost of water (LCOW) of MVC. We built a cost optimization model coupling thermophysical, heat and mass transfer, and technoeconomic models to optimize and identify low cost MVC system designs as a function of feedwater salinity and water recovery. The LCOW ranges over 3.6 to 6.1 $\$$/m 3 for seawater feed salinities of 25–150 g/kg and water recoveries of 40–80 %. We then perform sensitivity analysis on parameter inputs to isolate irreducible costs and determine high value component innovation targets. The LCOW was most sensitive to evaporator material costs and performance, including the overall heat transfer coefficient in the evaporator. Process and material innovations such as polymer-composite evaporator tubes that reduce evaporator costs by 25 % without reducing heat transfer performance by more than 10 % would result in MVC cost reductions of 8 %.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous online optimization of a closed-circuit reverse osmosis system

As freshwater becomes increasingly scarce, many industrial and municipal water utilities look at premise-scale water treatment and reuse to meet water demand. Closed-circuit reverse osmosis (CCRO) has been proposed as a promising process design to do so. This sequencing batch process enables operation at higher brine salinity levels by means of a recycle flow. Optimal operation requires that the maximum salinity level at the membrane surface represents an optimal trade-off between brine disposal costs and energy efficiency. This maximum salinity level may change over time as the feed water composition changes and electricity markets fluctuate. In this article, we present the results of the experimental evaluation of an automatic technique for continuous online optimization, known as extremum seeking control. This technique has a long history in the process control community but has received little traction so far in the water industry. We modify this technique to enable its use for online optimization of CCRO, specifically to account for its sequential batch operation. We challenge the optimization schemes through several experimental tests and illustrate the advantages and drawbacks of extremum-seeking control.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

A New Coupled Biogeochemical Modeling Approach Provides Accurate Predictions of Methane and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes Across Diverse Tidal Wetlands

Abstract Tidal wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services, including storing large amounts of carbon. However, the net exchanges of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) in tidal wetlands are highly uncertain. While several biogeochemical models can operate in tidal wetlands, they have yet to be parameterized and validated against high‐frequency, ecosystem‐scale CO 2 and CH 4 flux measurements across diverse sites. We paired the Cohort Marsh Equilibrium Model (CMEM) with a version of the PEPRMT model called PEPRMT‐Tidal, which considers the effects of water table height, sulfate, and nitrate availability on CO 2 and CH 4 emissions. Using a model‐data fusion approach, we parameterized the model with three sites and validated it with two independent sites, with representation from the three marine coasts of North America. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) modules explained, on average, 73% of the variation in CO 2 exchange with low model error (normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <1). The CH 4 module also explained the majority of variance in CH 4 emissions in validation sites ( R 2 = 0.54; nRMSE = 1.15). The PEPRMT‐Tidal‐CMEM model coupling is a key advance toward constraining estimates of greenhouse gas emissions across diverse North American tidal wetlands. Further analyses of model error and case studies during changing salinity conditions guide future modeling efforts regarding four main processes: (a) the influence of salinity and nitrate on GPP, (b) the influence of laterally transported dissolved inorganic C on R eco , (c) heterogeneous sulfate availability and methylotrophic methanogenesis impacts on surface CH 4 emissions, and (d) CH 4 responses to non‐periodic changes in salinity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Caprock Remains Water Wet Under Geologic CO 2 Storage Conditions

Abstract Carbon storage technology is primarily targeted in saline formations, which is a porous rock matrix filled with brine, sealed with a low permeability caprock. There are significant variations of CO 2 wetting properties, typically reported in the literature as contact angle of CO 2 and brine interacting with a rock material, suggesting that CO 2 could become wetting under geostorage conditions and negatively impact containment effectiveness. Here, we performed the first controlled laboratory measurements of CO 2 ‐brine contact angles on shale rocks from low permeability sealing formations with distinctive mineralogic properties—calcite‐rich, quartz‐rich, and dolomite‐rich. We targeted temperatures at 40° and 100°C, pressures at 8.3, 34.5, and 62.1 MPa, and salinity at 35,000 and 260,000 ppm. Results show no significant change in contact angle with mineralogy, temperature, pressure, salinity, and CO 2 bubble size. We conclude that caprocks will remain water‐wet at geologic CO 2 storage conditions and will not lose their capillary sealing capacity.

Tapriyal, Deepak↗
DOE OSTI2020

Human-induced changes to the global ocean water masses and their time of emergence

The World Ocean is rapidly changing, with global and regional modification of temperature and salinity, resulting in widespread and irreversible impacts. While the most pronounced observed temperature and salinity changes are located in the upper ocean, changes in water masses at depth have been identified and will probably strengthen in the future. In this study, using 11 climate models, we define when anthropogenic temperature and salinity changes are expected to emerge from natural variability in the ocean interior along density surfaces. The models predict that in 2020, 20–55% of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian basins have an emergent anthropogenic signal; reaching 40–65% in 2050 and 55–80% in 2080. The well-ventilated Southern Ocean water masses emerge very rapidly, as early as the 1980–1990s, while the Northern Hemisphere water masses emerge in the 2010–2030s. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining and augmenting an ocean observing system capable of detecting and monitoring persistent anthropogenic changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗