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At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Large-scale Hydrogen Storage Risk Assessment

This project investigated risks involved in deploying a large-scale hydrogen storage system at the Port of Seattle (hereafter, the Port) for its on-terminal and maritime applications in an urban industrial setting. Alongside, the project attempted to address some of the barriers to risk assessment such as need for an exact system design for a systematic investigation, direct access to surrounding communities to gauge their perceptions, and an integrated software required to undertake a full-fledged risk assessment. These barriers were overcome using illustrative reference station designs, engaging with community-facing agencies through Port support, and pooling national laboratory capabilities available for risk assessments. The project identified relevant public safety risk metrics, compared various hydrogen carriers, engaged with community-facing agencies, and explored potential gaps in existing safety codes and standards. The primary impacts of this project include the development of risk assessment guidance for ports and utilities, informing them of the trade-offs in the choice of hydrogen carriers, and the ability to increase public capacity for dialog and engagement. This paves the way toward decarbonization of the Port activities, bringing about awareness around jobs in the market for risk assessments, and the need to ramp up community engagement long before any hydrogen system deployment is undertaken.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

Traditional hazards analysis (HA) methods, originally developed to address physical and operational risks, often fall short when it comes to identifying and mitigating cyber threats. These cyber threats pose unique and evolving risks to critical infrastructure and industrial control systems (ICS). This report explores the integration of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into existing HA methods to enhance their ability to address cyber-induced risks. CIE provides organizations with a practical, cost-effective approach to closing the gap between traditional HA methods and the need for cyber risk mitigation. By leveraging existing safety processes and controls, CIE allows users to examine and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities without overhauling existing HA methods. This report identifies areas where HA and CIE naturally align and where their approaches diverge. It emphasizes how CIE principles can be used to adapt HA methods, broadening their scope to include cyber risks and enabling the mitigation of cyber- induced impacts alongside traditional hazards and failure scenarios. This report examines how CIE can be applied across various HA methods—such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA). It provides strategies for integrating CIE to strengthen the identification, assessment, and mitigation of cyber-induced risks. The findings offer a structured entry point for organizations to embed CIE concepts into hazards and safety analyses, as well as broader engineering processes, ultimately supporting the design and operation of a more resilient infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

Traditional hazards analysis (HA) methods, originally developed to address physical and operational risks, often fall short when it comes to identifying and mitigating cyber threats. These cyber threats pose unique and evolving risks to critical infrastructure and industrial control systems (ICS). This report explores the integration of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into existing HA methods to enhance their ability to address cyber-induced risks. CIE provides organizations with a practical, cost-effective approach to closing the gap between traditional HA methods and the need for cyber risk mitigation. By leveraging existing safety processes and controls, CIE allows users to examine and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities without overhauling existing HA methods. This report identifies areas where HA and CIE naturally align and where their approaches diverge. It emphasizes how CIE principles can be used to adapt HA methods, broadening their scope to include cyber risks and enabling the mitigation of cyber- induced impacts alongside traditional hazards and failure scenarios. This report examines how CIE can be applied across various HA methods—such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA). It provides strategies for integrating CIE to strengthen the identification, assessment, and mitigation of cyber-induced risks. The findings offer a structured entry point for organizations to embed CIE concepts into hazards and safety analyses, as well as broader engineering processes, ultimately supporting the design and operation of a more resilient infrastructure.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2004

Towards a systems approach to risk considerations for concurrent design

This paper describes the new process used by the Project Design Center at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory for the identification, assessment and communication of risk elements throughout the lifecycle of a mission design. This process includes a software tool, 'RAP' that collects and communicates risk information between the various designers and a 'risk expert' who mediates this process. The establishment of this process is an attempt towards the systematic consideration of risk in the design decision making process. Using this process, we are able to better keep track of the risks associated with the design decisions. Furthermore, it helps us develop better risk profiles for the studies under consideration. We aim to refine and expand the current process to enable more thorough risk analysis capabilities in the future.

concurrent design↗
NASA NTRS2013

Security Risk Assessment Process for UAS in the NAS CNPC Architecture

This informational paper discusses the risk assessment process conducted to analyze Control and Non-Payload Communications (CNPC) architectures for integrating civil Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS). The assessment employs the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Risk Management framework to identify threats, vulnerabilities, and risks to these architectures and recommends corresponding mitigating security controls. This process builds upon earlier work performed by RTCA Special Committee (SC) 203 and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to roadmap the risk assessment methodology and to identify categories of information security risks that pose a significant impact to aeronautical communications systems. A description of the deviations from the typical process is described in regards to this aeronautical communications system. Due to the sensitive nature of the information, data resulting from the risk assessment pertaining to threats, vulnerabilities, and risks is beyond the scope of this paper

data links↗
NASA NTRS2015

Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Astronaut Post Flight Bone Fracture

Introduction: Space flight potentially reduces the loading that bone can resist before fracture. This reduction in bone integrity may result from a combination of factors, the most common reported as reduction in astronaut BMD. Although evaluating the condition of bones continues to be a critical aspect of understanding space flight fracture risk, defining the loading regime, whether on earth, in microgravity, or in reduced gravity on a planetary surface, remains a significant component of estimating the fracture risks to astronauts. This presentation summarizes the concepts, development, and application of NASA's Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) to understanding pre-, post, and in mission astronaut bone fracture risk. The overview includes an assessment of contributing factors utilized in the BFxRM and illustrates how new information, such as biomechanics of space suit design or better understanding of post flight activities may influence astronaut fracture risk. Opportunities for the bone mineral research community to contribute to future model development are also discussed. Methods: To investigate the conditions in which spaceflight induced changes to bone plays a critical role in post-flight fracture probability, we implement a modified version of the NASA Bone Fracture Risk Model (BFxRM). Modifications included incorporation of variations in physiological characteristics, post-flight recovery rate, and variations in lateral fall conditions within the probabilistic simulation parameter space. The modeled fracture probability estimates for different loading scenarios at preflight and at 0 and 365 days post-flight time periods are compared. Results: For simple lateral side falls, mean post-flight fracture probability is elevated over mean preflight fracture probability due to spaceflight induced BMD loss and is not fully recovered at 365 days post-flight. In the case of more energetic falls, such as from elevated heights or with the addition of lateral movement, the contribution of space flight quality changes is much less clear, indicating more granular assessments, such as Finite Element modeling, may be needed to further assess the risks in these scenarios.

Risk Analysis↗
NASA NTRS2016

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Populations↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated Physics-Based Risk Model for Assessing the Asteroid Threat

Although most asteroids and other near-Earth objects (NEOs) do not pose a threat to Earth’s inhabitants, impacts from objects that are just tens of meters in diameter can cause significant damage if they occur over a populated area. This paper forms the foundation of an effort at NASA Ames Research Center to quantify these risks and identify the greatest risk-driving parameters and uncertainties. An integrated risk model that couples dynamic probabilistic simulations of strike occurrences with physics-based models of NEO impact damage factors has been developed to generate casualty estimates for a range of NEO impact properties. Currently, the model focuses on the risk due to blast overpressure damage from airbursts and impacts on land. The model is first used to reproduce results from established sources, and then is extended to perform sensitivity studies that yield greater insights into risk driving parameters. Results show that meteor strength and entry angle play a role for small to mid-size NEOs, and that accounting for the specific target location significantly affects casualty estimates and dominates the risk. Future work will continue to refine and expand the models to better characterize key impact risk factors, include additional types of threats such as tsunamis and climate effects, and ultimately support assessments of potential asteroid mitigation strategies.

Asteroid Threat↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of A Crew Health and Performance System Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool: Proof-of-Concept Approach

The crew health and performance (CHP) system represents the span of technological interventions and tested processes and procedures that in combination address the human risk to space flight. The Human Research Program (HRP) mental model of the CHP system breaks the capabilities needed to meet NASA human flight systems standards into specific categories (i.e., countermeasures, behavioral health, medical intervention). These categories are further broken down into specific sub-groups generally associated with the human system risks that these capabilities seek to mitigate. Like the approach used to develop the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Analysis Tool (MEDPRAT), HRP tasked NASA GRC’s Cross-Cutting Computational Modeling Project with developing a CHP probabilistic risk assessment tool, the CHP-PRA. The CHP-PRA model seeks to quantify and relatively assess the human risk state within the crew health and performance domain, using a combination of knowledge about human system risks and technology and practices likely to be applied during space flight missions. This modeling system will incorporate customer and stakeholder feedback and be flexible enough to address multiple different questions about important low-level mission-specific parameters. This presentation will introduce the initial concept and development timeline for this tool and demonstrate proof-of-concept through an application addressing a specific human risk question posed within the Artemis program.

Risk analysis↗
DOE OSTI2015

Quantifying Supply Risk at a Cellulosic Biorefinery

In order to increase the sustainability and security of the nation’s energy supply, the U.S. Department of Energy through its Bioenergy Technology Office has set a vision for one billion tons of biomass to be processed for renewable energy and bioproducts annually by the year 2030. The Renewable Fuels Standard limits the amount of corn grain that can be used in ethanol conversion sold in the U.S, which is already at its maximum. Therefore making the DOE’s vision a reality requires significant growth in the advanced biofuels industry where currently three cellulosic biorefineries convert cellulosic biomass to ethanol. Risk mitigation is central to growing the industry beyond its infancy to a level necessary to achieve the DOE vision. This paper focuses on reducing the supply risk that faces a firm that owns a cellulosic biorefinery. It uses risk theory and simulation modeling to build a risk assessment model based on causal relationships of underlying, uncertain, supply driving variables. Using the model the paper quantifies supply risk reduction achieved by converting the supply chain from a conventional supply system (bales and trucks) to an advanced supply system (depots, pellets, and trains). Results imply that the advanced supply system reduces supply system risk, defined as the probability of a unit cost overrun, from 83% in the conventional system to 4% in the advanced system. Reducing cost risk in this nascent industry improves the odds of realizing desired growth.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2018

RISK-INFORMED EXTERNAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS BY EEVE TOOLKIT

Introducing risk-informed safety analyses for external events can bring sensible benefits to the nuclear power industry easing the regulatory burden introduced in the aftermath of the Fukushima accident. In the framework of the US-DOE Light-Water Reactor Sustainability program, Risk-Informed Margin Characterization project (LWRS-RISMC), research activities were conducted at INL for developing and applying a toolkit for performing risk-informed external hazards analysis. The “EEVE” (External EVEnts) toolkit, a chain of INL and state-of-the-art codes, was set-up and applied for simulating earthquake-induced transients with internal flooding in a PWR. This was done using methodology set-up for evaluating new data and determining critical areas that would benefit most from advanced analysis methods. The methodology is agnostic and it can be applied to other external hazards than just seismic and flooding (e.g., high winds, intense precipitation, etc.). The first step was the deterministic calculations for evaluating the propagation of a set of earthquakes and for determining the effects on a fire suppression system in an auxiliary building. These deterministic calculations were performed using the LS-DYNA and the OPENSEE structural mechanics codes. Probability failures and event trees of a generic 3-loops Westinghouse PWR were derived from a generic SAPHIRE model. Seismically induced Loss of Offsite Power, Station Blackout, and fire suppression piping failure events were considered. SAPHIRE code allowed a pre-screening of all possible branches of the event tree and a selection of those with the largest Core Damage Frequency increase for further analysis using dynamic PRA methods. INL's EMRALD code performed dynamic PRA calculations of the identified sequences, integrating risk analysis with on-line deterministic safety analysis results (seismically-induced internal flooding calculations by NEUTRINO code and system analysis by RELAP5-3D code). RELAP5-3D Best-Estimate calculations coupled with RAVEN statistical code were used for deriving limit surfaces as function of relevant transient parameters. This data was used by EMRALD for determining the final core status (core damage/core safe). Finally, the coupling of seismic, flooding, system thermal-hydraulic, uncertainty quantification and probabilistic risk analysis for an advanced risk-informed external hazards analysis was demonstrated. Results showed the sensible decrease in the level of conservatism achieved using the developed risk-informed methodology, which allowed also improving the evaluation of the failure modes and failure probabilities of different components.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Coupling RAVEN to SAPHIRE for Performing Time Dependent Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Cost Risk Analysis Framework Tool (CRAFT) was recently developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to perform economical risk analysis by combining physics, risk and cost information of components in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) that can be quickly deployable through the nuclear industry to evaluate the risk associated to capital projects and asset management [1]. In this framework, RAVEN is coupled with SAPHIRE to perform the time dependent risk/safety assessment of NPPs. Traditionally, the risk associated to the NPPs can be determined by classical Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) tools, such as SAPHIRE, under the assumption that all failure rates are constant over time. In some circumstances, however, the assumption is rendered invalid since that the failure rate of a component may gradually change in a systematic way, for example, because of aging and degradation. In addition, recent data analysis in [2] has suggested decreasing values of failure rates for several important components of NPPs. A PRA that includes these components should employ the time-dependent failure rates in order to accurately estimate the risk at any given time. This time-dependent PRA is achieved by the coupling between RAVEN and SAPHIRE.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Coupling RAVEN to SAPHIRE for Performing Time Dependent Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Cost Risk Analysis Framework Tool (CRAFT) was recently developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to perform economical risk analysis by combining physics, risk and cost information of components in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) that can be quickly deployable through the nuclear industry to evaluate the risk associated to capital projects and asset management [1]. In this framework, RAVEN is coupled with SAPHIRE to perform the time dependent risk/safety assessment of NPPs. Traditionally, the risk associated to the NPPs can be determined by classical Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) tools, such as SAPHIRE, under the assumption that all failure rates are constant over time. In some circumstances, however, the assumption is rendered invalid since that the failure rate of a component may gradually change in a systematic way, for example, because of aging and degradation. In addition, recent data analysis in [2] has suggested decreasing values of failure rates for several important components of NPPs. A PRA that includes these components should employ the time-dependent failure rates in order to accurately estimate the risk at any given time. This time-dependent PRA is achieved by the coupling between RAVEN and SAPHIRE.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Ecological risk assessment software for radioactive waste management facilities - 15464

Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) is a systematic process which can be used to identify, quantify and characterize the risk posed by contaminants and physical stressors in the environment on biological receptors, including human and non-human biota. Human receptors can be addressed through a Human Health Risk Assessment and non-human biota can be addressed through an Ecological Risk Assessment (EcoRA). In 2012 the Canadian Standards Association (CSA) issued a CSA standard N288.6 Environmental Risk Assessment at Class I Nuclear Facilities and Uranium Mines and Mills. The standard applies to radioactive waste management facilities, as well as nuclear power plants. The ERA can also be used retrospectively, to estimate the effect that a contaminant or stressor has already had on the environment; and can be used to assist in determining possible remedial or risk management options to return the quality of the affected environment to a predetermined state. While industry-standard tools for estimating radiological doses to humans are readily available, there is a need for a tool to implement the CSA N288.6 standard for Ecological Risk Assessment. To address this need, AMEC developed a computer code called -Assessment of Impact of Contaminants on Ecological Receptors (AICER)-. The code was developed to be consistent with the CSA standard N288.6, by assessing the impact of radiological contamination on non-human biota for normal operations. The code can also be used to screen for the potential effects of conventional contamination on the environment. In addition, the code is also applicable for abnormal events and accidents with the appropriate modification of some parameters used in the code. The AICER code was qualified in accordance with the requirements of the Canadian quality standard CSA N286.7 -Quality Assurance of Analytical, Scientific, and Design Computer Programs for Nuclear Power Plants-. The functionality of the code is illustrated with screen shots in the paper, following the introduction of the theoretical model for the dose calculation. An inter-comparison with RESRAD-BIOTA and ERICA Assessment tool at the conceptual level was conducted. In addition, the practical application of the code for the assessment of the impacts related to an existing radioactive waste management facility is provided. In particular, analysis was conducted to evaluate radiological doses to non-human biota resulting from a fire accident scenario involving an existing waste storage and processing facility. Analysis included all feasible waterborne and airborne exposure pathways. Doses were evaluated for a range of species representing valued ecological components at various trophic levels and compared with benchmark values for indicator species. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

Risk informed cyber security for nuclear power plants - 342

Nuclear power plants are increasingly adding digital components for plant operation, safety, and security. These digital components fill a gap with legacy equipment where replacement components no longer exist. They also benefit operation of the plant by increasing efficiency in power generation, monitoring of equipment and plant parameters, as well as aiding operator control. However, the addition of digital components and systems also adds cyber risks with previously unanalyzed failure modes and attack vectors are introduced with these new systems. These risks are difficult to identify, analyze, and mitigate due to the increasingly complex nature of the digital components and the integration of these components with additional plant processes and communication networks. The research presented in this paper develops a new method that addresses the cyber risk to inform appropriate levels of protection. EPRI and Sandia are working under a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement to develop an effective method of evaluating the cyber risk in production nuclear power facilities. The Cyber Hazards Analysis Risk Methodology (CHARM) focuses on ensuring adequate controls are in place for appropriate cyber protection of the plant from radiological release or generation risk. Existing plant hazards analyses (e.g., PRA, FTA) do not account for software deficiencies or adversarial intent. This method leverages existing plant analyses and MIT's Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) to create cyber informed fault trees. These new fault trees will provide the basis for comprehensive cyber risk analysis and help ensure potential gaps in cyber security controls are identified and corrected. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Characterizing the Benefits of Seismic Isolation of Nuclear Structures in Terms of Reduced Risk and Cost

Seismic isolation is a mature technology that has been implemented in many civil structures, including buildings, bridges, liquid natural gas tanks, and off shore oil platforms, both in the United States and other countries, to mitigate the damaging effects of earthquakes. Seismic isolation has also been used in nuclear structures in France and South Africa, but not yet in the United States: neither in the Department of Energy facilities nor in commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). This is primarily due to a lack of guidelines, codes and standards for the analysis, design and construction specific to seismically isolated nuclear structures. However, seismic isolation of nuclear structures has seen increased research interest in the recent years and the recently published national consensus standard, America Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard 4-16 'Seismic analysis of safety related nuclear structures', now incorporates language and commentary (Chapter 12) for seismically isolating surface or near-surface-mounted nuclear facilities, including NPPs. Seismic isolation substantially reduces horizontal seismic loads (demands) on structures, systems, and components. Reduction in demand results in four potential benefits: (1) economic: reduction in capital cost, (2) increased safety: reduction in the mean annual frequency of unacceptable performance, (3) insurance: protection against increases in the known seismic hazard after construction by minimizing the effort to re-qualify and re-certify structures, systems and components, and (4) recertification: the opportunity to certify an existing NPP design for a region of higher seismic hazard. Item (2) above, an increase in safety (reduction of seismic risk), was explored in Huang et al., wherein it was demonstrated that the implementation of seismic isolation reduced seismic risk in nuclear power plant structures. Studies that assess item (1) have not been performed although the use of isolation may lead to large reductions in the capital cost of safety-related nuclear facilities. Funding provided by Nuclear Safety Research and Development in the Department of Energy (DOE) allowed the authors to develop a framework for assessing the economic benefits and reductions in seismic risk afforded by the use of seismic (base) isolation. The framework includes probabilistic risk assessment and estimation of overnight capital costs (OCC's) of a sample generic DOE nuclear facility (GDNF). The project is documented in detail in Bolisetti et al. and Yu et al., and key results are presented here. The GDNF considered in this study is based on a facility constructed at the Idaho National Laboratory. The GDNF is a two-story reinforced concrete building with an embedded basemat and is founded on soft rock at the boundary of Site Class B and Site Class C (B/C boundary) as characterized by ASCE/SEI Standard 7. The GDNF is assumed to handle radiological materials, and its structure, systems and components (SSC's) are designed to effectively confine these materials in the event of an internal failure. The GDNF is populated with components that are generic to safety-related nuclear structures. A single system, which is intended to confine a loss of materials-at-risk (MAR) to the interior of the structure, is chosen for this study. Accordingly, a hypothetical event tree and fault tree are assumed for risk assessment. The isolation system for the GDNF is designed per Chapter 12 of ASCE/SEI 4-16 but is not optimized. The isolation system consists of 38 lead rubber bearings installed in one horizontal plane below the basemat. Details of the GDNF, including the SSC's, event tree and fault tree, and isolation system, are presented in the project report and Yu et al.. This study includes seismic risk assessment and cost estimation for four cases: (1) the GDNF is located at a site of low to moderate seismic hazard and is constructed on a conventional (non-isolated) foundation; (2) the GDNF is located at the same site as case 1, but is seismically isolated; (3) the GDNF is located at a site of high seismic hazard and is constructed on a conventional foundation; and (4) the GDNF is located at the same site of high seismic hazard as case 3, but is seismically isolated. In this study, the DOE site at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is chosen as the low to moderate seismic hazard site for cases 1 and 2, and the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is chosen as the high seismic hazard site for cases 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2019

A computational risk assessment approach to the integration of seismic and flooding hazards with internal hazards

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants historically focuses on internal events at the plant, rather than external hazards. Although the importance of external hazards risk analysis is now well recognized, the methods for assessing the risk associated with low probability external hazards rely heavily on subjective judgment of specialists, often using conservative elements in the analysis, as is the case with the Conservative Deterministic Failure Margin approach commonly used for seismic PRA. The U.S. Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability program has been investigating the use of first principles analyses to provide a more realistic assessment of the risk of external hazards, in a process called computational risk assessment (CRA). Efforts undertaken are described in the development of CRA methods to integrate the risk associated with seismic and flooding events into traditional PRA. Further, the results of four case studies are presented.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment for electric grid cybersecurity

Electric grid cybersecurity risk has become a significant concern of industries and governments. This paper proposes a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment method for electric grid cybersecurity risk analysis. The proposed method helps reduce the reliance on expert judgment, capture a broad range of components and system dynamics, and model the interactions between various contributing entities (e.g., attacker, operator). In addition, the scenarios with multiple events, such as the occurrence of both cyberattacks and failures of physical components, the occurrence of both cyberattacks and operators’ (in)correct reactions, are considered and analyzed. Further, for each cyberattack scenario, Monte Carlo simulations are used to obtain possible sequences of the system's evolution under study and then derive risk estimates. As an application of the proposed method, the risk assessment method serves as the basis of risk-informed defense resource allocation to improve electric grid cybersecurity. The proposed method is verified using the IEEE 14-bus system by evaluating different security resource allocations for selected cyberattack scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗