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At least 631 records · Page 35

Seafloor Control on Sea Ice

The seafloor has a profound role in Arctic sea ice formation and seasonal evolution. Ocean bathymetry controls the distribution and mixing of warm and cold waters, which may originate from different sources, thereby dictating the pattern of sea ice on the ocean surface. Sea ice dynamics, forced by surface winds, are also guided by seafloor features in preferential directions. Here, satellite mapping of sea ice together with buoy measurements are used to reveal the bathymetric control on sea ice growth and dynamics. Bathymetric effects on sea ice formation are clearly observed in the conformation between sea ice patterns and bathymetric characteristics in the peripheral seas. Beyond local features, bathymetric control appears over extensive ice-prone regions across the Arctic Ocean. The large-scale conformation between bathymetry and patterns of different synoptic sea ice classes, including seasonal and perennial sea ice, is identified. An implication of the bathymetric influence is that the maximum extent of the total sea ice cover is relatively stable, as observed by scatterometer data in the decade of the 2000s, while the minimum ice extent has decreased drastically. Because of the geologic control, the sea ice cover can expand only as far as it reaches the seashore, the continental shelf break, or other pronounced bathymetric features in the peripheral seas. Since the seafloor does not change significantly for decades or centuries, sea ice patterns can be recurrent around certain bathymetric features, which, once identified, may help improve short-term forecast and seasonal outlook of the sea ice cover. Moreover, the seafloor can indirectly influence cloud cover by its control on sea ice distribution, which differentially modulates the latent heat flux through ice covered and open water areas.

Nghiem, S. V.↗

Recovery of Deep Moonquake Focal Mechanisms

Deep moonquakes are clustered not only in space but also in time: their recurrence times correspond to the durations of the anomalistic and draconic months, with some clusters preferring one of the two periods, while others are active with both periods. A key constraint for the understanding of the connection between the orbital motion of the Moon and its seismic activity is the focal mechanism: the orientation of the fault surface on which failure occurs during the quake. Due to the small aperture of the Apollo seismic network and the strong scattering of seismic waves within the lunar crust, the evaluation of P wave first motions to constrain the strike and dip of the fault planes is not feasible. Instead we evaluate the amplitude ratios of P and S waves. Seismograms are rotated into the P-SV-SH coordinate frame and amplitudes are determined as averages over short time windows after the arrival to reduce the impact of the scattering coda, which is independent of the source orientation. We allow for reversals of the fault motion, as observed for some clusters in previous studies, by taking into account the absolute amplitude only, without sign. An empirical site correction factor is applied to correct for amplitude distortions in the crust. We construct ensembles of fault plane solutions using an exhaustive grid search by accepting all orientations that reproduce the measured amplitude ratios within the observed standard deviations. Since all events of a given cluster are supposed to share the same fault plane, the combination of the individual inversion results further constrains the orientation. We evaluate 106 events from 25 different moonquake clusters. The most active cluster A001 contributes 37 events, while others contribute 1 to 9 events per cluster. Comparison of fault orientations with the variation of the tidal stress results in preferred orientations.

Weber, Renee C.↗

Upset Simulation and Training Initiatives for U.S. Navy Commercial Derived Aircraft

Militarized versions of commercial platforms are growing in popularity due to many logistical benefits in the form of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) parts, established production methods, and commonality for different certifications. Commercial data and best practices are often leveraged to reduce procurement and engineering development costs. While the developmental and cost reduction benefits are clear, these militarized aircraft are routinely operated in flight at significantly different conditions and in significantly different manners than for routine commercial flight. Therefore they are at a higher risk of flight envelope exceedance. This risk may lead to departure from controlled flight and/or aircraft loss1. Historically, the risk of departure from controlled flight for military aircraft has been mitigated by piloted simulation training and engineering analysis of typical aircraft response. High-agility military aircraft simulation databases are typically developed to include high angles of attack (AoA) and sideslip due to the dynamic nature of their missions and have been developed for many tactical configurations over the previous decades. These aircraft simulations allow for a more thorough understanding of the vehicle flight dynamics characteristics at high AoA and sideslip. In recent years, government sponsored research on transport airplane aerodynamic characteristics at high angles of attack has produced a growing understanding of stall/post-stall behavior. This research along with recent commercial airline training initiatives has resulted in improved understanding of simulator-based training requirements and simulator model fidelity.2-5 In addition, inflight training research over the past decade has produced a database of pilot performance and recurrency metrics6. Innovative solutions to aerodynamically model large commercial aircraft for upset conditions such as high AoA, high sideslip, and ballistic damage, as well as capability to accurately account for scaling factors, is necessary to develop realistic engineering and training simulations. Such simulations should significantly reduce the risk of departure from controlled flight, loss of aircraft, and ease the airworthiness certification process. The characteristics of commercial derivative aircraft are exemplified by the P-8A Multi-mission Maritime Aircraft (MMA) aircraft, and the largest benefits of initial investigation are likely to be yielded from this platform. The database produced would also be utilized by flight dynamics engineers as a means to further develop and investigate vehicle flight characteristics as mission tactics evolve through the years ahead. This paper will describe ongoing efforts by the U.S. Navy to develop a methodology for simulation and training for large commercial-derived transport aircraft at unusual attitudes, typically experienced during an aircraft upset. This methodology will be applied to a representative Navy aircraft (P-8A) and utilized to develop a robust simulation that should accurately represent aircraft response in these extremes. Simulation capabilities would then extend to flight dynamics analysis and simulation, as well as potential training applications. Recent evaluations of integrated academic, ground-based simulation, and in-flight upset training will be described along with important lessons learned, specific to military requirements.

Donaldson, Steven↗

Comparing the Identification of Recommendations by Different Accident Investigators Using a Common Methodology

Accident reports play a key role in the safety of complex systems. These reports present the recommendations that are intended to help avoid any recurrence of past failures. However, the value of these findings depends upon the causal analysis that helps to identify the reasons why an accident occurred. Various techniques have been developed to help investigators distinguish root causes from contributory factors and contextual information. This paper presents the results from a study into the individual differences that can arise when a group of investigators independently apply the same technique to identify the causes of an accident. This work is important if we are to increase the consistency and coherence of investigations following major accidents.

Johnson, Chris W.↗

Operational Applications of Autogenic Feedback Training Exercise as a Treatment for Airsickness in the Military

Airsickness is experienced by about 50% of military aviators some time in their career. Aviators who suffer from recurrent episodes of airsickness are typically referred to the Naval Aerospace Medical Institute (NAMI) at Pensacola where they undergo extensive evaluation and 8 weeks of training in the Self-Paced Airsickness Desensitization (SPAD) program. Researchers at NASA Ames have developed an alternative mitigation training program, Autogenic Feedback Training Exercise (AFTE) that has demonstrated an 80% success rate for improving motion sickness tolerance.

Gebreyesus, Fiyore↗

Towards a Decision Support System for Space Flight Operations

The Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has put in place a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) technological framework for the development and execution of the Flight Production Process (FPP). This framework has provided much added value and return on investment to date. This paper describes a vision for a model based Decision Support System (DSS) for the development and execution of the FPP and its design and development process. The envisioned system extends the existing MBSE methodology and technological framework which is currently in use. The MBSE technological framework currently in place enables the systematic collection and integration of data required for building an FPP model for a diverse set of missions. This framework includes the technology, people and processes required for rapid development of architectural artifacts. It is used to build a feasible FPP model for the first flight of spacecraft and for recurrent flights throughout the life of the program. This model greatly enhances our ability to effectively engage with a new customer. It provides a preliminary work breakdown structure, data flow information and a master schedule based on its existing knowledge base. These artifacts are then refined and iterated upon with the customer for the development of a robust end-to-end, high-level integrated master schedule and its associated dependencies. The vision is to enhance this framework to enable its application for uncertainty management, decision support and optimization of the design and execution of the FPP by the program. Furthermore, this enhanced framework will enable the agile response and redesign of the FPP based on observed system behavior. The discrepancy of the anticipated system behavior and the observed behavior may be due to the processing of tasks internally, or due to external factors such as changes in program requirements or conditions associated with other organizations that are outside of MOD. The paper provides a roadmap for the three increments of this vision. These increments include (1) hardware and software system components and interfaces with the NASA ground system, (2) uncertainty management and (3) re-planning and automated execution. Each of these increments provide value independently; but some may also enable building of a subsequent increment.

Meshkat, Leila↗

Evolution of International Space Station Program Safety Review Processes and Tools

The International Space Station Program at NASA is constantly seeking to improve the processes and systems that support safe space operations. To that end, the ISS Program decided to upgrade their Safety and Hazard data systems with 3 goals: make safety and hazard data more accessible; better support the interconnection of different types of safety data; and increase the efficiency (and compliance) of safety-related processes. These goals are accomplished by moving data into a web-based structured data system that includes strong process support and supports integration with other information systems. Along with the data systems, ISS is evolving its submission requirements and safety process requirements to support the improved model. In contrast to existing operations (where paper processes and electronic file repositories are used for safety data management) the web-based solution provides the program with dramatically faster access to records, the ability to search for and reference specific data within records, reduced workload for hazard updates and approval, and process support including digital signatures and controlled record workflow. In addition, integration with other key data systems provides assistance with assessments of flight readiness, more efficient review and approval of operational controls and better tracking of international safety certifications. This approach will also provide new opportunities to streamline the sharing of data with ISS international partners while maintaining compliance with applicable laws and respecting restrictions on proprietary data. One goal of this paper is to outline the approach taken by the ISS Progrm to determine requirements for the new system and to devise a practical and efficient implementation strategy. From conception through implementation, ISS and NASA partners utilized a user-centered software development approach focused on user research and iterative design methods. The user-centered approach used on the new ISS hazard system utilized focused user research and iterative design methods employed by the Human Computer Interaction Group at NASA Ames Research Center. Particularly, the approach emphasized the reduction of workload associated with document and data management activities so more resources can be allocated to the operational use of data in problem solving, safety analysis, and recurrence control. The methods and techniques used to understand existing processes and systems, to recognize opportunities for improvement, and to design and review improvements are described with the intent that similar techniques can be employed elsewhere in safety operations. A second goal of this paper is to provide and overview of the web-based data system implemented by ISS. The software selected for the ISS hazard systemMission Assurance System (MAS)is a NASA-customized vairant of the open source software project Bugzilla. The origin and history of MAS as a NASA software project and the rationale for (and advantages of) using open-source software are documented elsewhere (Green, et al., 2009).

Ratterman, Christian D.↗

Investigation of DMSD Trend in the ISS Water Processor Assembly

The ISS Water Recovery System (WRS) is responsible for providing potable water to the crew, to the Oxygen Generation System (OGS) for oxygen production via electrolysis, to the Waste & Hygiene Compartment (WHC) for flush water, and for experiments on ISS. The WRS includes the Water Processor Assembly (WPA) and the Urine Processor Assembly (UPA). The WPA processes condensate from the cabin air and distillate produced by the UPA. In 2010, an increasing trend in the Total Organic Carbon (TOC) in the potable water was ultimately identified as dimethylsilanediol (DMSD). The increasing trend was ultimately reversed after replacing the WPA's two multifiltration beds. However, the reason for the TOC trend and the subsequent recovery was not understood. A subsequent trend occurred in 2012. This paper summarizes the current understanding of the fate of DMSD in the WPA, how the increasing TOC trend occurred, and the plan for modifying the WPA to prevent recurrence.

Carter, Layne↗

3D Normal Human Neural Progenitor Tissue-Like Assemblies: A Model of Persistent VZV Infection

Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) is a neurotropic human alphaherpesvirus that causes varicella upon primary infection, establishes latency in multiple ganglionic neurons, and can reactivate to cause zoster. Live attenuated VZV vaccines are available; however, they can also establish latent infections and reactivate. Studies of VZV latency have been limited to the analyses of human ganglia removed at autopsy, as the virus is strictly a human pathogen. Recently, terminally differentiated human neurons have received much attention as a means to study the interaction between VZV and human neurons; however, the short life-span of these cells in culture has limited their application. Herein, we describe the construction of a model of normal human neural progenitor cells (NHNP) in tissue-like assemblies (TLAs), which can be successfully maintained for at least 180 days in three-dimensional (3D) culture, and exhibit an expression profile similar to that of human trigeminal ganglia. Infection of NHNP TLAs with cell-free VZV resulted in a persistent infection that was maintained for three months, during which the virus genome remained stable. Immediate-early, early and late VZV genes were transcribed, and low-levels of infectious VZV were recurrently detected in the culture supernatant. Our data suggest that NHNP TLAs are an effective system to investigate long-term interactions of VZV with complex assemblies of human neuronal cells.

Goodwin, Thomas J.↗

Investigating SLIM Disk Solutions FOR HLX-1 IN ESO 243-49

The hyperluminous X-ray source HLX-1 in the galaxy ESO 243-49, currently the best intermediate-mass blackhole (BH) candidate, displays spectral transitions similar to those observed in Galactic BH binaries, but with aluminosity 100-1000 times higher. We investigated the X-ray properties of this unique source by fitting multiepochdata collected by Swift, XMM-Newton, and Chandra with a disk model computing spectra for a wide rangeof sub- and super-Eddington accretion rates assuming a non-spinning BH and a face-on disk (i=0 deg.). Under theseassumptions we find that the BH in HLX-1 is in the intermediate-mass range (approximately 2 x 10(exp 4) solar mass) and the accretionflow is in the sub-Eddington regime. The disk radiation efficiency is eta = 0.11 plus or minus 0.03. We also show that the source does follow the LX is proportional to T(exp 4) relation for our mass estimate. At the outburst peaks, the source radiates near the Eddington limit. The accretion rate then stays constant around 4 x 10(exp 4) solar mass yr (sup -1) for several days and then decreases exponentially. Such plateaus in the accretion rate could be evidence that enhanced mass-transfer rateis the driving outburst mechanism in HLX-1. We also report on the new outburst observed in 2011 August by theSwift X-Ray Telescope. The time of this new outburst further strengthens the approximately 1 year recurrence timescale.

solutions↗

Toward the Probabilistic Forecasting of High-latitude GPS Phase Scintillation

The phase scintillation index was obtained from L1 GPS data collected with the Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Network (CHAIN) during years of extended solar minimum 2008-2010. Phase scintillation occurs predominantly on the dayside in the cusp and in the nightside auroral oval. We set forth a probabilistic forecast method of phase scintillation in the cusp based on the arrival time of either solar wind corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). CIRs on the leading edge of high-speed streams (HSS) from coronal holes are known to cause recurrent geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances that can be forecast one or several solar rotations in advance. Superposed epoch analysis of phase scintillation occurrence showed a sharp increase in scintillation occurrence just after the arrival of high-speed solar wind and a peak associated with weak to moderate CMEs during the solar minimum. Cumulative probability distribution functions for the phase scintillation occurrence in the cusp are obtained from statistical data for days before and after CIR and ICME arrivals. The probability curves are also specified for low and high (below and above median) values of various solar wind plasma parameters. The initial results are used to demonstrate a forecasting technique on two example periods of CIRs and ICMEs.

scintillation↗

Intensification of North American Megadroughts through Surface and Dust Aerosol Forcing

Tree-ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) indicate that, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains of North America experienced recurrent periods of drought spanning decades or longer. These megadroughts had exceptional persistence compared to more recent events, but the causes remain uncertain. The authors conducted a suite of general circulation model experiments to test the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) and land surface forcing on the MCA megadroughts over the central plains. The land surface forcing is represented as a set of dune mobilization boundary conditions, derived from available geomorphological evidence and modeled as increased bare soil area and a dust aerosol source (32deg-44degN, 105deg-95degW). In the experiments, cold tropical Pacific SST forcing suppresses precipitation over the central plains but cannot reproduce the overall drying or persistence seen in the PDSI reconstruction. Droughts in the scenario with dust aerosols, however, are amplified and have significantly longer persistence than in other model experiments, more closely matching the reconstructed PDSI. This additional drying occurs because the dust increases the shortwave planetary albedo, reducing energy inputs to the surface and boundary layer. The energy deficit increases atmospheric stability, inhibiting convection and reducing cloud cover and precipitation over the central plains. Results from this study provide the first model-based evidence that dust aerosol forcing and land surface changes could have contributed to the intensity and persistence of the central plains megadroughts, although uncertainties remain in the formulation of the boundary conditions and the future importance of these feedbacks.

Earth surface↗

Effects of Mackenzie River Discharge and Bathymetry on Sea Ice in the Beaufort Sea

Mackenzie River discharge and bathymetry effects on sea ice in the Beaufort Sea are examined in 2012 when Arctic sea ice extent hit a record low. Satellite-derived sea surface temperature revealed warmer waters closer to river mouths. By 5 July 2012, Mackenzie warm waters occupied most of an open water area about 316,000 sq km. Surface temperature in a common open water area increased by 6.5 C between 14 June and 5 July 2012, before and after the river waters broke through a recurrent landfast ice barrier formed over the shallow seafloor offshore the Mackenzie Delta. In 2012, melting by warm river waters was especially effective when the strong Beaufort Gyre fragmented sea ice into unconsolidated floes. The Mackenzie and other large rivers can transport an enormous amount of heat across immense continental watersheds into the Arctic Ocean, constituting a stark contrast to the Antarctic that has no such rivers to affect sea ice.

Mackenzie↗

Characterization of the Inner Knot of the Crab: the Site of the Gamma-ray Flares?

One of the most intriguing recent discoveries has been the detection of powerful gamma-ray flares from the Crab Nebula. Such events, with a recurrence time of about once per year, can be so dramatic to make the system the brightest source in the gamma‐ray sky as occurred, e.g. in April 2011. These flares challenge our understanding of how pulsar wind nebulae work and defy current astrophysical models for particle acceleration. We present here our study of the inner knot located within a fraction of an arcsecond from the pulsar with the aim of characterizing the feature and asking if this might be the site of the origin of the gamma-ray flares. We took data using Keck, HST, and Chandra obtained as part of our multi‐wavelength campaign to identify the source of the enigmatic flares. We set an upper limit as to the gamma-ray flux from the knot. We also find that the dimensions, surface brightness, flux, etc. of the optical and infrared knot are all correlated with distance from the pulsar. This distance, in turn, varies with time. In addition to this most thorough characterization of the inner knot's properties, we examine the hypothesis that the knot may be the site of the flares by examining the knot separation versus the Fermi/LAT gamma-ray flux. Finally, as part of this research, we make use of a new approach employing singular value decomposition (SVD) for analyzing time series of images and compare the approach to more traditional methods. Our conclusions are only refined but not impacted by using the new approach.

Gamma-ray Flares↗

Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Validation↗

Centimeter to Decimeter Size Spherical and Cylindrical Features in Gale Crater Sediments

The Curiosity rover traverse in Gale crater has explored a large series of sedimentary deposits in an ancient lake on Mars. Over the nine kilometers of traverse a recurrent observation has been southward-dipping sedimentary strata, from Shaler at the edge of Yellowknife Bay to the striated units near the Kimberley. Within the sedimentary strata cm- to decimeter- size hollow spheroidal objects and some apparent cylindrical objects have been observed. These features have not been seen by previous landed missions. The first of these were observed on sol 122 in the Gillespie Lake member at Yellowknife Bay. Additional hollow features were observed in the Point Lake outcrop in the same area. More recently a spherical and apparently hollow object, Winnipesaukee, was observed by ChemCam and Mastcam on sol 653. Here we describe the settings, morphology, and associated compositions, and we discuss possible origins of these objects.

Wiens, R. C.↗

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of a Global Landslide Catalog

Landslide inventories are critical to support investigations ofwhere andwhen landslides have happened andmay occur in the future; however, there is surprisingly little information on the historical occurrence of landslides at the global scale. This paper presents a new publicly available global landslide catalog (GLC), which is based on media reports, online databases, and other sources. This database is currently available at http://ojo-streamer. herokuapp.com/. The 5741 points in the GLC provide a foundation for evaluating spatial and temporal trends in landslide activity from 2007 to 2013. Globally, landslideswere reportedmost frequently from July to September. Most events occurred in Asia, North America and Southeast Asia. In contrast, fewer than 5% of the fatalities were reported in North America, suggesting a significant amount of under-reporting in other regions as well as potential discrepancies between developing and developed regions. Reported landslide events were also compared to satellite-based precipitation estimates fromthe Tropical RainfallMeasuring Mission (TRMM) to evaluate the co-occurrence of extreme precipitation and landslide activity. Of the 3550 points considered in a subset of the GLC, approximately 60% of the reported landslides have daily precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile of precipitation calculated over a 14-year TRMMrecord for the same location. This study also investigated how the recurrence interval of extreme precipitation corresponded to some of the most catastrophic landslide events. In spite of several reporting and cataloging biases, spatial and temporal analysis of the GLC suggests that it is a valuable database for characterizing global patterns of landslide occurrence and evaluating relationships with extreme precipitation at regional and global scales.

Analysis↗