Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “range prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 631 records · Page 35

Subseasonal Great Plains Rainfall via Remote Extratropical Teleconnections: Regional Application of Theory‐Guided Causal Networks

Abstract Long‐range U.S. summer rainfall prediction skill is low. Monsoon variability, especially over the West North Pacific Monsoon (WNPM) and/or East Asian Monsoon (EAM) region, can influence U.S. Great Plains hydroclimate variability via a forced Rossby wave response. Here, we explored subseasonal monsoon variability as a source of predictability for Great Plains rainfall. The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is related to Great Plains convection and Great Plains low‐level jet (LLJ) anomalies as well as a cross‐Pacific wave train. Using a causal effect network, we found that the time between BSISO‐related geopotential height anomalies and Great Plains rainfall anomalies is about 2 weeks; therefore, BSISO convection may be a valuable forecast of opportunity for subseasonal prediction of Great Plains convection anomalies. More specifically, causal link patterns/maps revealed that the above‐normal weekly EAM rainfall, rather than WNPM rainfall or general geopotential height activity over the East Asia, was causally linked to Great Plains LLJ strengthening and active Great Plains convection the following week.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

High-intensity X-ray beams can influence the kinetics in a time-resolved experiment

X-ray induced structural damage is well known, but the potential for changes in the kinetics of physical and chemical processes is rarely recognized or considered. These can happen over a wide intensity range, are difficult to predict and often escape detection. Subsequently, the problem deserves more attention from experimentalists.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The integrated miniaturized electrostatic analyzer: A space plasma environment sensor

The integrated Miniaturized Electrostatic Analyzer (iMESA) was a satellite-based ionospheric sensor that operated on NASA’s Space Test Program Satellite (STPSat-3) from December 2013 to July 2019. The instrument’s scientific objective was to (1) measure the plasma density in low Earth orbit, (2) measure the plasma temperature in low Earth orbit, and (3) quantify the spacecraft potential with respect to the ambient plasma potential in the ionosphere. iMESA sampled the ionosphere every 10 s by measuring the ion current density through the ESA as a result of the motion of the spacecraft through the plasma. Current density spectra were transmitted to the ground where they were post-processed into ion density spectra and then analyzed numerically to determine the ion density, ion temperature, and spacecraft potential. This article discusses the instrument design and simulation, the determination of a geometric factor, and data processing procedures and evaluates the final data product with regard to the mission success criteria. Here, the ion density and ion temperature captured by the iMESA instrument are on the same order and range as the values predicted in the literature. The spacecraft potential was also quantified. The conclusion after the evaluation of the instrument’s data product is that the scientific mission is successful on all three points.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Machine learning guided optimal composition selection of niobium alloys for high temperature applications

Nickel- and cobalt-based superalloys are commonly used as turbine materials for high-temperature applications. However, their maximum operating temperature is limited to about 1100 °C. Therefore, to improve turbine efficiency, current research is focused on designing materials that can withstand higher temperatures. Niobium-based alloys can be considered as promising candidates because of their exceptional properties at elevated temperatures. The conventional approach to alloy design relies on phase diagrams and structure–property data of limited alloys and extrapolates this information into unexplored compositional space. In this work, we harness machine learning and provide an efficient design strategy for finding promising niobium-based alloy compositions with high yield and ultimate tensile strength. Unlike standard composition-based features, we use domain knowledge-based custom features and achieve higher prediction accuracy. We apply Bayesian optimization to screen out novel Nb-based quaternary and quinary alloy compositions and find these compositions have superior predicted strength over a range of temperatures. We develop a detailed design flow and include Python programming code, which could be helpful for accelerating alloy design in a limited alloy data regime.

Mohanty, Trupti (ORCID:0000000342701430)↗

Cement sensors with acoustic bandgaps using carbon nanotubes

Cement is widely used in wellbores to stabilize the steel casing used in wellbore operations for oil and gas production, enhanced geothermal systems and carbon sequestration, and to limit fluid movement between sub-surface strata. Flaws such as microcracks in wellbore cement can lead to leakage along the wellbore compromising wellbore integrity. There is an increasing need for methods to monitor cement crack propagation in wellbore environments. In this study, we develop and report the first cementitious sensors capable of exhibiting high frequency acoustic bandgaps (ABGs) using carbon nanotubes (CNTs). Computational simulations of a sensor unit cell are used to design cement-multi walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) sensors that show a wide bandgap. When the cement-MWCNTs sensors is embedded in cement specimens, bandgaps were measured experimentally under 300 kHz and under 600 kHz, consistent with the computationally predicted bandgaps in the range of 290–360 kHz, 410–460 kHz and 515–585 kHz. These bandgap features were absent in homogeneous cement specimens. X-ray tomographic reconstructions showed microscopic debonding at cement-MWCNTs sensor interface. Frequency response analysis of a three-dimensional computational model indicated a shift of frequency of minimum transmission due to the interface debonding, but no perturbation of bandgap response was observed. Here, the cement-MWCNTs sensors developed in this study show the potential of a packed CNT inclusion material in cementitious matrix to create ABGs in a cement matrix.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Increasing the density in Wendelstein 7-X: benefits and limitations

In stellarators, increasing the density is beneficial for the energy confinement. While there is no single reason for this observation, it is still very robust across different devices and this is reflected in the empirical energy confinement time scaling for stellarators, ISS04. In order to study whether this is also true for Wendelstein 7-X, here the density scaling of the energy confinement time is analyzed and compared to ISS04 for the first divertor experiments. When the density is increased beyond a critical density, however, radiative collapses are frequently observed. Existing analytical models for the critical density are revisited to assess whether they can predict the accessible density range. Furthermore, since close to the collapse the radiation losses increase substantially, the impact on the global energy confinement is investigated. It is found that in plasmas with high radiation the density scaling of the energy confinement time becomes weaker, the reason for this observation is not yet clear. In the second half of the first divertor campaign, boronization was applied to W7-X for the first time. This broadened the operational window, allowing for operation at higher density and, hence, higher stored energy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Quantum Monte Carlo studies of a trimer scaling function with microscopic two- and three-body interactions

Here, we present an energy scaling function to predict, in a specific range, the energy of bosonic trimers with large scattering lengths and finite range interactions, which is validated by quantum Monte Carlo calculations using microscopic Hamiltonians with two- and three-body potentials. The proposed scaling function depends on the scattering length, effective range, and a reference energy, which we chose as the trimer energy at unitarity. We obtained the scaling function as a limit cycle from the solution of the renormalized zero-range model with effective range corrections. We proposed a simple parametrization of the energy scaling function. Besides the intrinsic interest in theoretical and experimental investigations, this scaling function allows one to probe Efimov physics with only the trimer ground states, which may open opportunities to identify Efimov trimers whenever access to excited states is limited.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Dynamical model of φ meson photoproduction on the nucleon and 4 He

We investigate φ meson photoproduction on the nucleon and the 4 He targets within a dynamical model approach based on a Hamiltonian which describes the production mechanisms by the Pomeron-exchange, meson-exchanges, φ radiations, and nucleon resonance excitations mechanisms. The final φN interactions are included being described by the gluon-exchange, direct φN couplings, and the box-diagrams arising from the couplings with πN, ρN, KΛ, and KΣ channels. The parameters of the Hamiltonian are determined by the experimental data of γp → φp from the CLAS Collaboration. The resulting Hamiltonian is then used to predict the coherent φ-meson production on the 4 He targets by using the distorted-wave impulse approximation. For the proton target, the final φN rescattering effects, as required by the unitarity condition, are found to be very weak, which supports the earlier calculations in the literature. For the 4 He targets, the predicted differential cross sections are in good agreement with the data obtained by the LEPS Collaboration. Furthermore, the role of each mechanism in this reaction is discussed and predictions for a wide range of scattering angles are presented, which can be tested in future experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

OmniXAS: A universal deep-learning framework for materials x-ray absorption spectra

X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) is a powerful characterization technique for probing the local chemical environment of absorbing atoms. However, analyzing XAS data presents significant challenges, often requiring extensive, computationally intensive simulations, as well as significant domain expertise. These limitations hinder the development of fast, robust XAS analysis pipelines that are essential in high-throughput studies and for autonomous experimentation. Here, we address these challenges with OmniXAS, a framework that contains a suite of transfer learning approaches for XAS prediction, each uniquely contributing to improved accuracy and efficiency, as demonstrated on the K-edge spectra database covering eight 3⁢d transition metals (Ti–Cu). The OmniXAS framework is built upon three distinct strategies. First, we use M3GNet [Nat. Comput. Sci. 2, 718 (2022)] to derive latent representations of the local chemical environment of absorption sites as input for XAS prediction, achieving significant improvements over conventional featurization techniques. Second, we employ a hierarchical transfer learning strategy, training a universal multitask model across elements before fine-tuning for element-specific predictions. Models based on this cascaded approach after elementwise fine-tuning outperform element-specific models by up to 69%. Third, we implement cross-fidelity transfer learning, adapting a universal model to predict spectra generated by simulation of a different fidelity with a much higher computational cost. This approach improves prediction accuracy by up to 11% over models trained on the target fidelity alone. Our approach significantly boosts the throughput of XAS modeling by orders of magnitude as compared to first-principles simulations and is extendable to XAS prediction for a broader range of elements. The proposed transfer learning framework is generalizable to enhance deep-learning models that target other properties in materials research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Measurement of the Lund jet plane in hadronic decays of top quarks and W bosons with the ATLAS detector

The Lund jet plane (LJP) is measured for the first time in $t\bar{t}$ events, using 140 $\textrm{fb}^{-1}$ of $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV pp collision data collected with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The LJP is a two-dimensional observable of the sub-structure of hadronic jets that acts as a proxy for the kinematics of parton showers and hadron formation. The observable is constructed from charged particles and is measured for R = 1.0 anti-$k_t$ jets with transverse momentum above 350 GeV containing the full decay products of either a top quark or a daughter W boson. The other top quark in the event is identified from its decay into a b-quark, an electron or a muon and a neutrino. The measurement is corrected for detector effects and compared with a range of Monte Carlo predictions sensitive to different aspects of the hadronic decays of the heavy particles. In the W-boson-initiated jets, all the predictions are incompatible with the measurement. In the top quark initiated jets, disagreement with all predictions is observed in smaller subregions of the plane, and with a subset of the predictions across the fiducial plane. The measurement could be used to improve the tuning of Monte Carlo generators, for better modelling of hadronic decays of heavy quarks and bosons, or to improve the performance of jet taggers.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Isogeometric large-eddy simulations of turbulent particle-laden flows

In recent years, isogeometric analysis (IGA) has attracted significant attention from the computational mechanics community due to its ability to integrate design and analysis. Besides, IGA is also a higher-order discretization technique for solving partial differential equations, showing high approximation capability per degree of freedom. In this paper, we extend the application realm of IGA to particle-laden flows based on Eulerian–Eulerian description that couples Navier–Stokes equations with a density transport equation through a Boussinesq approximation. The coupled systems are solved by using quadratic non-uniform rational B-spline (NURBS) functions and a recently developed residual-based variational multiscale (VMS) formulation, which introduces coupling between the fine velocity scales and density equation residuals. We deploy the proposed approach to perform large-eddy simulations (LES) of dilute particle-laden flows over a flat surface at Reynolds number = 10,000. We compare the simulation results against direct numerical simulation (DNS) results from the literature. We find that combining VMS and IGA, the proposed approach enables accurate prediction of a wide range of flow/particle statistics with a relatively lower mesh resolution.

Mathematics↗

RolyPoly (rp) v0.1.0

The Rolypoly pipeline is designed to process raw RNA-seq data and identify potential RNA viral sequences. It is split into several self contained steps: 1. input data filtering and QC, 2. Genome assembly and refinement, 3. Assembly filtering, 4. Mapping to known RNA viral genomes, 5. Searching for RNA viral marker genes. 6. Genome functional and structural annotation. 6. Report preparation and potential downstream analysis The last module, may include taxonomic assignment, host range estimation, and phenotypic prediction. There are many similar software, but they focus on human related viruses, and lack the downstream applications or differ in their sensitivity. The initial user base are non-computational microbial ecologists who wish to better understand the potential RNA viruses in their own generated samples.

Neri, Uri↗

Database of virus genomes from ultra-deep sequencing of wastewater

Researchers at University of Missouri have conducted ultra-deep RNA sequencing of viral concentrates from wastewater (1 billion Illumina reads per sample). The resulting dataset spans 321 samples collected weekly from 11 cities between 2023-2025. As part of a tri-lab collaboration, scientists at LLNL and LANL cleaned, assembled, and annotated this metagenomic data, identifying nearly 200,000 viral genomes. Careful data curation resulted in a database containing 21,015 high-quality, near-complete viral genomes from wastewater. This database contains viruses predicted to infect a range of hosts including bacteria (most common viruses), plants (most abundant viruses), and vertebrates (rarest viruses). There are also numerous novel viruses that could not be well identified and whose host(s) are unknown. Just 7% of all genomes in the wastewater virus database had genus-level matches in the public NCBI database, and 17% matched to a recently created metagenomic virus database at that level (metaVR). The database will provide baseline information about viruses in wastewater that may be used to additional identify novel viruses during ongoing monitoring

Allen, Jonathan [Lawrence Livermore National Labor↗

Comparative study of decay heat calculations with FLUKA and MCNP/CINDER2008

In designing a high-power tungsten target, decay heat driven temperature rise in the spallation volume is a safety concern during maintenance and in loss of coolant accidents. As tungsten hydrates and becomes volatile in steam at above 800 ◦C, it is important to keep the target temperature below this threshold when active cooling is unavailable. Decay heat in a target is calculated with particle transport simulation codes combined with transmutation codes. The calculated decay heat usually differs depending on the nuclear cross sections and the decay particle transport models built in the code architecture. In this paper, we calculated decay heat of a water-cooled tungsten target using popular particle transport codes, FLUKA and MCNP6® paired with CINDER2008 and compared the results. The target-moderator-reflector (TMR) system is modeled with a water-cooled solid tungsten target, water premoderators, liquid hydrogen cold moderators and beryllium reflectors. Water-cooled stainless-steel shielding is modeled around the TMR system. The tungsten volume is clad with a thin layer of erosion/corrosion resistant material. This study provides information about the uncertainty range in decay heat prediction of high-power spallation targets for hazard analysis.

Lee, Yong Joong↗

End-to-End Differentiable Modeling and Management of the Environment

Focal Area: (2) Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization. We emphasize the importance of leveraging optimization techniques from AI/machine learning (ML) to solve challenging problems in Earth system modeling. Science Challenge: Automatic differentiation has had a transformative effect on ML by allowing the calculation of gradients of arbitrary functions in an incredibly large class of models. We can potentially realize similar improvements in parameter estimation and control for Earth system models (ESMs) by reimplementing them in computational frameworks from ML. Practitioners working with large (>10 7 parameters) models in ML and AI can obtain good predictive performance in a range of spatiotemporal tasks by making use of optimization via stochastic gradient descent and incorporating prior knowledge at multiple levels. We propose writing ESMs in open-source computational frameworks such as Torch, Tensorflow, and JAX to greatly expand the scope of environmental forecasting and management challenges, which can be addressed by leveraging automatic differentiation and gradient descent-like algorithms. We do not call for a wholesale replacement of physical models with data-driven surrogates, but rather advocate for interleaving physical and empirical equations in a manner that is most faithful to the extent of our scientific knowledge and observational data. Central to this topic is the merging of differentiable physical simulations with differentiable optimization layers, which are now both beginning to come to the forefront.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Isotopic and Fuel Lattice Parameter Trends in Extended Enrichment and Higher Burnup LWR Fuel Vol I: PWR fuel

Commercial light water reactor (LWR) operators and fuel vendors in the United States are pursuing changes to nuclear fuel that include extended enrichment (EE) and accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) designs. The term EE (8% > 235 U > 5%) is used in this report to refer to a subset of high assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) that is considered usable in commercial US LWRs in the near term. ATF features are designed to improve fuel system performance under accident conditions. One goal of EE is to improve fuel cycle economy by enabling fuel to be depleted to higher burnup than the typical current maximum pin burnup limits (62 gigawatt-days per metric ton of uranium [GWd/MTU]). Adoption of EE, ATF, and high burnup (HBU) fuels in the US commercial fleet requires a clear understanding of the effects on core physics parameters and used fuel isotopic content, as well as confidence in the accuracy of computer code predictions over an expanded range of materials, enrichment, and burnup. A thorough understanding of the applicability and adequacy of benchmark data (e.g., criticality, decay heat, isotopic content) for computer code validation is necessary to ensure that appropriate safety margins are maintained. To prepare for and support these potential changes, the effects of EE, ATF, and HBU are being assessed for selected representative LWR fuel designs. The project is divided into phases: this report summarizes the findings of Phase 1, which focuses on the lattice physics parameter and used fuel isotopic changes for a conventional Westinghouse 17×17 pressurized water reactor (PWR) design. The primary investigation tool is the SCALE Polaris code using the SCALE 56-group Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF)/B-VII.1 cross sections. The goal of the current work is to (1) identify and explain important effects of EE and HBU (reactivity, lattice physics, and isotopic effects) assuming that PWR fuel design and usage remain similar to those for current enrichment fuel, (2) provide limited code-to-code comparisons with higher order cross section libraries and/or codes, and (3) identify any apparent anomalous trends in the results for further investigation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Isotopic and Fuel Lattice Parameter Trends in Extended Enrichment and Higher Burnup LWR Fuel, Volume II: BWR

Commercial light water reactor (LWR) operators and fuel vendors in the United States are pursuing changes to nuclear fuel that include extended enrichment (EE) and accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) designs to further improve reactor safety and plant economics. Extended fuel enrichments above 5% 235 U pin enrichment and up to 10% 235 U are a subset of high assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) that may be deployed in commercial US LWRs in the near term. ATF features, such as cladding coatings or alternative cladding materials, are designed to improve fuel system performance under accident conditions. One goal of EE is to improve fuel cycle economy by enabling fuel to be depleted to higher burnup than the typical current limits (62 gigawatt-days per metric ton of uranium [GWd/MTU]). Adoption of EE, ATF, and high burnup (HBU) fuels in the US commercial fleet requires a clear understanding of the effects on core physics parameters and used fuel isotopic content, as well as confidence in the accuracy of computer code predictions over an expanded range of materials, enrichment, and burnup. A thorough understanding of the applicability and adequacy of benchmark data (e.g., criticality, decay heat, isotopic content) for computer code validation is necessary to ensure that appropriate safety margins are maintained. As part of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) agreement number 31310019N0008, “SCALE Code Development, Assessment and Maintenance,” the effects of EE, ATF, and HBU are being assessed for selected representative LWR fuel designs. The project is divided into phases, and this report summarizes the findings of the Phase 1 work, which focuses on lattice physics parameter and used fuel isotopic changes for a conventional GE14 10 x 10 boiling water reactor (BWR) design with GNF-2 part length rod patterns to model a modern BWR assembly design.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Assessment of Machine Learning for Ultrasonic Nondestructive Evaluation of Alkali–Silica Reaction in Concrete

Alkali–silica reaction (ASR) is a type of material degradation in concrete structures that leads to concrete cracking and rebar corrosion, thereby reducing the material’s structural integrity and the overall structure’s lifetime and raising safety concerns. Ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation (NDE) has been proven to be a valuable technique for assessing concrete properties and monitoring ASR progression in concrete. However, the deployment and analysis of ultrasonic NDE and its data requires specialized expertise, often relying on the engineer’s subjective interpretation. With the surge in computational power, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms have become popular in automating NDE data analysis. Various industrial sectors are increasingly adopting ML algorithms for NDE data analysis with a growing emphasis on AI–assisted automation. Regulatory agencies are also preparing for this technological shift, anticipating corresponding revisions in standards. Thus, there is an urgent need to identify the capabilities and limitations of current ML technologies for the evaluation of concrete material properties and damage status. Furthermore, the effects of various factors on ML model performance must be thoroughly investigated. The study summarized herein evaluated the effectiveness of two ML models (i.e., support vector regression (SVR) and deep neural network (DNN)) in predicting concrete material damage induced by ASR based on the long-term ultrasonic monitoring data. Four distinct concrete specimens were cast with artificially induced ASR, and over a period exceeding 500 days, ultrasonic signals and expansion data were continuously collected. For the SVR model, wave velocity and 12 other wave features were extracted from the ultrasonic signals, with 6 out of 13 features selected as input for the model. Different combinations of training and testing datasets were designed to explore factors influencing prediction performance, including the range of data within training and testing sets, in addition to various signal preprocessing methodologies. These findings suggest the importance of using a training dataset with a broader data range compared with testing datasets for improved model performance alongside consistent signal preprocessing across datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗