Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “predicted”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Direct Prediction of Phonon Density of States With Euclidean Neural Networks

Abstract Machine learning has demonstrated great power in materials design, discovery, and property prediction. However, despite the success of machine learning in predicting discrete properties, challenges remain for continuous property prediction. The challenge is aggravated in crystalline solids due to crystallographic symmetry considerations and data scarcity. Here, the direct prediction of phonon density‐of‐states (DOS) is demonstrated using only atomic species and positions as input. Euclidean neural networks are applied, which by construction are equivariant to 3D rotations, translations, and inversion and thereby capture full crystal symmetry, and achieve high‐quality prediction using a small training set of examples with over 64 atom types. The predictive model reproduces key features of experimental data and even generalizes to materials with unseen elements, and is naturally suited to efficiently predict alloy systems without additional computational cost. The potential of the network is demonstrated by predicting a broad number of high phononic specific heat capacity materials. The work indicates an efficient approach to explore materials' phonon structure, and can further enable rapid screening for high‐performance thermal storage materials and phonon‐mediated superconductors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting concrete compressive strength using hybrid ensembling of surrogate machine learning models

This study aims to implement a hybrid ensemble surrogate machine learning technique in predicting the compressive strength (CS) of concrete, an important parameter used for durability design and service life prediction of concrete structures in civil engineering projects. For this purpose, an experimental database consisting of 1030 records has been compiled from the machine learning repository of the University of California, Irvine. The database was used to train and validate four conventional machine learning (CML) models, namely Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Linear and Non-Linear Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS-L and MARS-C), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Minimax Probability Machine Regression (MPMR). Subsequently, the predicted outputs of CML models were combined and trained using ANN to construct the Hybrid Ensemble Model (HENSM). It is observed that the proposed HENSM produces higher predictive accuracy compared to the CML models used in the present study. The predictive performance of all models for CS prediction was compared using the testing dataset and it is found that the HENSM model attained the highest predictive accuracy in both phases. Based on the experimental results, the newly constructed HENSM model is very potential to be a new alternative in handling the overfitting issues of CML models and hence, can be used to predict the concrete CS, including the design of less polluting and more sustainable concrete constructions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Incorporating machine learning with building network analysis to predict multi-building energy use

Predicting multi-building energy use at campus or city district scale has recently gained more attention; and more researchers have started to define reference buildings and study inter-impact between building groups. However, how to integrate the relationship to define reference buildings and predict multi-building energy use, using significantly less amount of building data and reducing complexity of prediction models, remains an open research question. To resolve this, this study proposed a novel method to predict multi-building energy use by integrating a social network analysis (SNA) with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique. The SNA method was used to establish a building network (BN) by identifying reference buildings and determine correlations between reference buildings and non-reference buildings. The ANN technique was applied to learn correlations and historical building energy use, and then used to predict multi-building energy use. To validate the SNA-ANN method, 17 buildings in the Southeast University campus, located in Nanjing, China, were studied. These buildings have three years of actual monthly electricity use data and were grouped into four types: office, educational, laboratory, and residential. The results showed the integrated SNA-ANN method achieved average prediction accuracies of 90.67% for the office group, 90.79% for the educational group, 92.34% for the laboratory group, and 83.32% for the residential group. The results demonstrated the proposed SNA-ANN method achieved an accuracy of 90.28% for the predicted energy use for all building groups. Finally, this study provides insights into advancing the interdisciplinary research on multi-building energy use prediction.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting the proximity to macroscopic failure using local strain populations from dynamic in situ X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on rocks

Predicting the proximity of large-scale dynamic failure is a critical concern in the engineering and geophysical sciences. Here we use evolving contractive, dilatational, and shear strain deformation preceding failure in dynamic X-ray tomography experiments to examine which strain components best predict the proximity to failure. We develop machine learning models to predict the proximity to failure using time series of three-dimensional local incremental strain tensor fields acquired in rock deformation experiments under stress conditions of the upper crust. Three-dimensional scans acquired in situ throughout triaxial compression experiments provide a distribution of density contrasts from which we estimate the three-dimensional incremental strain that accumulates between each scan acquisition. Training machine learning models on multiple experiments of six rock types provides suites of feature importance that indicate the predictive power of each feature. Comparing the average importance of groups of features that include information about each strain component quantifies the ability of the contractive, dilatational and shear strain to predict the proximity of macroscopic failure. A total of 24 models of four machine learning algorithms with six rock types indicate that 1) the dilatational strain provides the best predictive power of the strain components, and 2) the intermediate values (25th-75th percentile) of the strain population provide the best predictive power of the statistics of the strain populations. In addition, the success of the predictions of models trained on one rock type and tested on other rock types quantifies the similarities and differences of the precursory strain accumulation process in the six rock types. These similarities suggest the potential existence of a unified theory of brittle rock deformation for a range of rock types.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Assessing the capability of continuum and discrete particle methods to simulate gas-solids flow using DNS predictions as a benchmark

For this study, gas–solids flow in a three-dimension periodic domain was numerically investigated by direct numerical simulation (DNS), computational fluid dynamic-discrete element method (CFD-DEM) and two-fluid model (TFM). DNS data obtained by finely resolving the flow around every particle are used as a benchmark to assess the validity of coarser DEM and TFM approaches. The CFD-DEM predicts the correct cluster size distribution and under-predicts the macro-scale slip velocity even with a grid size as small as twice the particle diameter. The TFM approach predicts larger cluster size and lower slip velocity with a homogeneous drag correlation. Although the slip velocity can be matched by a simple modification to the drag model, the predicted voidage distribution is still different from DNS: Both CFD-DEM and TFM over-predict the fraction of particles in dense regions and under-predict the fraction of particles in regions of intermediate void fractions. Also, the cluster aspect ratio of DNS is smaller than CFD-DEM and TFM. Since a simple correction to the drag model can predict a correct slip velocity, it is hopeful that drag corrections based on more elaborate theories that consider voidage gradient and particle fluctuations may be able to improve the current predictions of cluster distribution.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

PySIDT: Subgraph Isomorphic Decision Trees for Molecular Property Prediction

Accurate molecular property prediction is important across all fields of chemistry. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become increasingly popular due to their ability to train automatically, avoiding the incredibly tedious process of constructing and extending traditional property estimation schemes. However, DNNs require large amounts of training data, are challenging to interpret, require large amounts of memory to load even during inference, and have severe difficulties incorporating qualitative chemical knowledge, which are often desired for molecular property prediction tasks. Here, in this study, we present PySIDT (https://github.com/zadorlab/PySIDT), a software for training and running inference on Subgraph Isomorphic Decision Trees (SIDTs). SIDTs are graph-based decision trees made of nodes associated with molecular substructures. Inference is done by descending target molecular structures down the decision tree to nodes with matching subgraph isomorphic substructures and making predictions based on the final (most specific) nodes matched. SIDTs scale down well to dataset sizes much smaller than is feasible for DNNs. As trees of molecular substructures, SIDTs are inherently readable and easy to visualize, making them easy to analyze. They are also straightforward to extend and retrain, facilitate uncertainty estimation, and enable easy integration of expert knowledge. We demonstrate the SIDT approach discussing its application to a diverse range of molecular prediction tasks: rate coefficient estimation, diffusion coefficient estimation, thermochemistry estimation, transition state bond stretch prediction, p K a prediction, stability of molecular structures, stability of surface structures, and prediction of surface lateral interaction energetics. Additionally, we demonstrate the power of the SIDT algorithms in two direct learning curve vanilla comparisons with the popular DNN-based software Chemprop and the popular gradient boosted trees-based software XGBoost on enthalpy of formation and rate coefficient prediction tasks. In particular, in the enthalpy of formation case, vanilla PySIDT is able to outperform vanilla Chemprop and XGBoost across the full range of training/validation set sizes out to 11,560 data points.

Johnson, Matthew Sean [Sandia National Laboratorie↗
DOE OSTI2017

Simplified Models for Accelerated Structural Prediction of Conjugated Semiconducting Polymers

We perform molecular dynamics simulations of poly(benzodithiophene-thienopyrrolodione) (BDT-TPD) oligomers in order to evaluate the accuracy with which unoptimized molecular models can predict experimentally characterized morphologies. The predicted morphologies are characterized using simulated grazing-incidence X-ray scattering (GIXS) and compared to the experimental scattering patterns. We find that approximating the aromatic rings in BDT-TPD with rigid bodies, rather than combinations of bond, angle, and dihedral constraints, results in 14% lower computational cost and provides nearly equivalent structural predictions compared to the flexible model case. The predicted glass transition temperature of BDT-TPD (410 +/- 32 K) is found to be in agreement with experiments. Predicted morphologies demonstrate short-range structural order due to stacking of the chain backbones (p-p stacking around 3.9 A), and long-range spatial correlations due to the self-organization of backbone stacks into 'ribbons' (lamellar ordering around 20.9 A), representing the best-to-date computational predictions of structure of complex conjugated oligomers. We find that expensive simulated annealing schedules are not needed to predict experimental structures here, with instantaneous quenches providing nearly equivalent predictions at a fraction of the computational cost of annealing. We therefore suggest utilizing rigid bodies and fast cooling schedules for high-throughput screening studies of semiflexible polymers and oligomers to utilize their significant computational benefits where appropriate.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

Enhancing Skill of Initialized Decadal Predictions Using a Dynamic Model of Drift

Since near-term predictions of present-day climate are controlled by both initial condition predictability and boundary condition predictability, initialized prediction experiments aim to augment the external-forcing-related predictability realized in uninitialized projections with initial-condition-related predictability by appropriate observation-based initialization. However, and notwithstanding the considerable effort expended in finding such “good” initial states, a striking feature of current, state-of-the-art, initialized decadal hindcasts is their tendency to quickly drift away from the initialized state, with attendant loss of skill. We derive a dynamical model for such drift, and after validating it we show that including a recalibrated version of the model in a postprocessing framework is able to significantly augment the skill of initialized predictions beyond that achieved by a use of current techniques of postprocessing alone. We also show that the new methodology provides further crucial insights into issues related to initialized predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Bayesian Deep Learning Approach to Near-Term Climate Prediction

Since model bias and associated initialization shock are serious shortcomings that reduce prediction skills in state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction efforts, we pursue a complementary machine-learning-based approach to climate prediction. The example problem setting we consider consists of predicting natural variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on the interannual timescale in the pre-industrial control simulation of the Community Earth System Model. While previous works have considered the use of recurrent networks such as convolutional LSTMs and reservoir computing networks in this and other similar problem settings, we currently focus on the use of feedforward convolutional networks. In particular, we find that a feedforward convolutional network with a Densenet architecture is able to outperform a convolutional LSTM in terms of predictive skill. Next, we go on to consider a probabilistic formulation of the same network based on Stein variational gradient descent and find that in addition to providing useful measures of predictive uncertainty, the probabilistic (Bayesian) version improves on its deterministic counterpart in terms of predictive skill. Finally, we characterize the reliability of the ensemble of machine learning models obtained in the probabilistic setting by using analysis tools developed in the context of ensemble numerical weather prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine-learning informed prediction of high-entropy solid solution formation: Beyond the Hume-Rothery rules

The empirical rules for the prediction of solid solution formation proposed so far in the literature usually have very compromised predictability. Some rules with seemingly good predictability were, however, tested using small data sets. Based on an unprecedented large dataset containing 1252 multicomponent alloys, machine-learning methods showed that the formation of solid solutions can be very accurately predicted (93%). The machine-learning results help identify the most important features, such as molar volume, bulk modulus, and melting temperature. As such a new thermodynamics-based rule was developed to predict solid–solution alloys. The new rule is nonetheless slightly less accurate (73%) but has roots in the physical nature of the problem. The new rule is employed to predict solid solutions existing in the three blocks, each of which consists of 9 elements. The predictions encompass face-centered cubic (FCC), body-centered cubic (BCC), and hexagonal closest packed (HCP) structures in a high throughput manner. The validity of the prediction is further confirmed by CALculations of PHAse Diagram (CALPHAD) calculations with high consistency (94%). Since the new thermodynamics-based rule employs only elemental properties, applicability in screening for solid solution high-entropy alloys is straightforward and efficient.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Soil microbiome predictability increases with spatial and taxonomic scale

Soil microorganisms shape ecosystem function, yet it remains an open question whether we can predict the composition of the soil microbiome in places before observing it. Furthermore, it is unclear whether the predictability of microbial life exhibits taxonomic- and spatial-scale dependence, as it does for macrobiological communities. Here, we leverage multiple large-scale soil microbiome surveys to develop predictive models of bacterial and fungal community composition in soil, then test these models against independent soil microbial community surveys from across the continental United States. We find remark- able scale dependence in community predictability. The predictability of bacterial and fungal communities increases with the spatial scale of observation, and fungal predictability increases with taxonomic scale. These patterns suggest that there is an increasing importance of deterministic versus stochastic processes with scale, consistent with findings in plant and animal communities, suggesting a general scaling relationship across biology. Biogeochemical functional groups and high-level taxonomic groups of microorganisms were equally predictable, indicating that traits and taxonomy are both powerful lenses for understanding soil communities. Here, by focusing on out-of-sample prediction, these findings suggest an emerging generality in our understanding of the soil microbiome, and that this understanding is fundamentally scale dependent

Biogeography↗
DOE OSTI2024

Incorrect computation of Madden-Julian oscillation prediction skill

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is a major tropical weather system and one of the largest sources of predictability for subseasonal-to-seasonal weather forecasts. Skillful prediction of the MJO has been a highly active area of research due to its large socio-economic impacts. Silini et al., herein S21, developed a machine learning model to predict the MJO, which they claimed to have an MJO prediction skill of 26–27 days over all seasons and 45 days for December–February (DJF) winter. If true, this would make the skill of their model competitive with that of the state-of-the-art dynamical MJO prediction systems at 20–35 days. However, here we show that the MJO prediction was calculated incorrectly in S21, which spuriously increased the performance of their model. Correctly computed skill of their model was substantially lower than that reported in S21; the skill for all seasons drops to 11–12 days and the skill for forecasts initialized during DJF drops to 15 days. Our findings clarify that the S21 machine learning model is not competitive with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models in predicting the MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learned synthesizability predictions aided by density functional theory

Abstract A grand challenge of materials science is predicting synthesis pathways for novel compounds. Data-driven approaches have made significant progress in predicting a compound’s synthesizability; however, some recent attempts ignore phase stability information. Here, we combine thermodynamic stability calculated using density functional theory with composition-based features to train a machine learning model that predicts a material’s synthesizability. Our model predicts the synthesizability of ternary 1:1:1 compositions in the half-Heusler structure, achieving a cross-validated precision of 0.82 and recall of 0.82. Our model shows improvement in predicting non-half-Heuslers compared to a previous study’s model, and identifies 121 synthesizable candidates out of 4141 unreported ternary compositions. More notably, 39 stable compositions are predicted unsynthesizable while 62 unstable compositions are predicted synthesizable; these findings otherwise cannot be made using density functional theory stability alone. This study presents a new approach for accurately predicting synthesizability, and identifies new half-Heuslers for experimental synthesis.

Lee, Andrew (ORCID:0000000153014295)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advancing energy storage through solubility prediction: leveraging the potential of deep learning

Solubility prediction plays a crucial role in energy storage applications, such as redox flow batteries, because it directly affects the efficiency and reliability. Researchers have developed various methods that utilize quantum calculations and descriptors to predict the aqueous solubilities of organic molecules. Notably, machine learning models based on descriptors have shown promise for solubility prediction. As deep learning tools, graph neural networks (GNNs) have emerged to capture complex structure–property relationships for material property prediction. Specifically, MolGAT, a type of GNN model, was designed to incorporate n-dimensional edge attributes, enabling the modeling of intricacies in molecular graphs and enhancing the prediction capabilities. In a previous study, MolGAT successfully screened 23 467 promising redox-active molecules from a database of over 500 000 compounds, based on redox potential predictions. This study focused on applying the MolGAT model to predict the aqueous solubility (log S) of a broad range of organic compounds, including those previously screened for redox activity. The model was trained on a diverse sample of 8494 organic molecules from AqSolDB and benchmarked against literature data, demonstrating superior accuracy compared with other state of the art graph-based and descriptor-based models. Subsequently, the trained MolGAT model was employed to screen redox-active organic compounds identified in the first phase of high-throughput virtual screening, targeting favorable solubility in energy storage applications. The second round of screening, which considered solubility, yielded 12 332 promising redox-active and soluble organic molecules suitable for use in aqueous redox flow batteries. Thus, the two-phase high-throughput virtual screening approach utilizing MolGAT, specifically trained for redox potential and solubility, is an effective strategy for selecting suitable intrinsically soluble redox-active molecules from extensive databases, potentially advancing energy storage through reliable material development. This indicates that the model is reliable for predicting the solubility of various molecules and provides valuable insights for energy storage, pharmaceutical, environmental, and chemical applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivities of time-dependent temperature profile predictions for NSTX with the multi-mode model

The Multi-Mode Model (MMM) for turbulent transport was applied to a large set of well-analyzed discharges from the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) in order to evaluate its sensitivities to a wide range of plasma conditions. MMM calculations were performed for hundreds of milliseconds in each discharge by performing time-dependent predictive simulations with the 1.5D tokamak integrated modeling code TRANSP. A closely related study (Lestz et al 2025 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 67 105029) concluded that MMM predicted electron and ion temperature profiles that were in reasonable agreement with NSTX observations, generally outperforming a different reduced transport model, TGLF. This finding motivates the more thorough investigation of the characteristics of the MMM predictions conducted in this work. The simulations with MMM have electron energy transport dominated by electron temperature gradient modes in the examined discharges with relatively low plasma β (ratio of kinetic plasma pressure to magnetic field pressure) and high collisionality, transitioning to a mixture of different modes for higher β and lower collisionality. The thermal ion diffusivity predicted by MMM is much smaller than the neoclassical contribution, in line with previous experimental analysis of NSTX. Nonetheless, the electron and ion temperature profiles are coupled via collisional energy exchange and thus sensitive to which transport channels are predicted. The time-dependent simulations with MMM are robust to the simulation start time, converging to remarkably similar temperature profiles later during the discharge. MMM typically overpredicts confinement relative to NSTX observations, leading to the prediction of overly steep temperature profiles. Plasmas with spatially broader temperature profiles, higher plasma β, and longer energy confinement times tend to be predicted by MMM with better agreement with the experiment. As a result, these findings provide useful context for understanding the regime-dependent tendencies of MMM in anticipation of self-consistent, time-dependent predictive simulations of NSTX-U discharges with these same modeling tools.

MMM↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hybrid deep learning architecture for general disruption prediction across tokamaks

In this paper, we present a new deep learning disruption prediction algorithm based on important findings from explorative data analysis which effectively allows knowledge transfer from existing devices to new ones, thereby predicting disruptions using very limited disruptive data from the new devices. Here, the explorative data analysis conducted via unsupervised clustering techniques confirms that time-sequence data are much better separators of disruptive and non-disruptive behavior than the instantaneous plasma state data with further advantageous implications for a sequence-based predictor. Based on such important findings, we have designed a new algorithm for multi-machine disruption prediction that achieves high predictive accuracy on the C-Mod (AUC=0.801), DIII-D (AUC=0.947) and EAST (AUC=0.973) tokamaks with limited hyperparameter tuning. Through numerical experiments, we show that boosted accuracy (AUC=0.959) is achieved on EAST predictions by including in the training only 20 disruptive discharges, thousands of non-disruptive discharges from EAST, and combining this with more than a thousand discharges from DIII-D and C-Mod. The improvement of predictive ability obtained by combining disruptive data from other devices is found to be true for all permutations of the three devices. Furthermore, by comparing the predictive performance of each individual numerical experiment, we find that non-disruptive data are machine-specific while disruptive data from multiple devices contain device-independent knowledge that can be used to inform predictions for disruptions occurring on a new device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A deep dilated convolutional residual network for predicting interchain contacts of protein homodimers

Abstract Motivation Deep learning has revolutionized protein tertiary structure prediction recently. The cutting-edge deep learning methods such as AlphaFold can predict high-accuracy tertiary structures for most individual protein chains. However, the accuracy of predicting quaternary structures of protein complexes consisting of multiple chains is still relatively low due to lack of advanced deep learning methods in the field. Because interchain residue–residue contacts can be used as distance restraints to guide quaternary structure modeling, here we develop a deep dilated convolutional residual network method (DRCon) to predict interchain residue–residue contacts in homodimers from residue–residue co-evolutionary signals derived from multiple sequence alignments of monomers, intrachain residue–residue contacts of monomers extracted from true/predicted tertiary structures or predicted by deep learning, and other sequence and structural features. Results Tested on three homodimer test datasets (Homo_std dataset, DeepHomo dataset and CASP-CAPRI dataset), the precision of DRCon for top L/5 interchain contact predictions (L: length of monomer in a homodimer) is 43.46%, 47.10% and 33.50% respectively at 6 Å contact threshold, which is substantially better than DeepHomo and DNCON2_inter and similar to Glinter. Moreover, our experiments demonstrate that using predicted tertiary structure or intrachain contacts of monomers in the unbound state as input, DRCon still performs well, even though its accuracy is lower than using true tertiary structures in the bound state are used as input. Finally, our case study shows that good interchain contact predictions can be used to build high-accuracy quaternary structure models of homodimers. Availability and implementation The source code of DRCon is available at https://github.com/jianlin-cheng/DRCon. The datasets are available at https://zenodo.org/record/5998532#.YgF70vXMKsB. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accurate flux predictions using tissue-specific gene expression in plant metabolic modeling

The accurate prediction of complex phenotypes such as metabolic fluxes in living systems is a grand challenge for systems biology and central to efficiently identifying biotechnological interventions that can address pressing industrial needs. The application of gene expression data to improve the accuracy of metabolic flux predictions using mechanistic modeling methods such as flux balance analysis (FBA) has not been previously demonstrated in multi-tissue systems, despite their biotechnological importance. We hypothesized that a method for generating metabolic flux predictions informed by relative expression levels between tissues would improve prediction accuracy. Relative gene expression levels derived from multiple transcriptomic and proteomic datasets were integrated into FBA predictions of a multi-tissue, diel model of Arabidopsis thaliana’s central metabolism. This integration dramatically improved the agreement of flux predictions with experimentally based flux maps from 13 C metabolic flux analysis compared with a standard parsimonious FBA approach. Disagreement between FBA predictions and MFA flux maps was measured using weighted averaged percent error values, and for parsimonious FBA this was 169%–180% for high light conditions and 94%–103% for low light conditions, depending on the gene expression dataset used. This fell to 10%-13% and 9%-11% upon incorporating expression data into the modeling process, which also substantially altered the predicted carbon and energy economy of the plant.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗