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At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Divergence in heritable life history traits suggests potential for local adaptation and trade‐offs associated with a coal ash disposal site

Abstract Globally, human activities have resulted in rapid environmental changes that present unique challenges for wildlife. However, investigations of local adaptation in response to simultaneous exposure to multiple anthropogenic selection pressures are rare and often generate conflicting results. We used an in situ reciprocal transplant design within a quantitative genetic framework to examine how adaptive evolution and phenotypic plasticity contribute to the persistence of an amphibian population inhabiting an environment characterized by high levels of multiple toxic trace elements. We found evidence of phenotypic divergence that is largely consistent with local adaptation to an environment contaminated with multiple chemical stressors, tied to potential trade‐offs in the absence of contaminants. Specifically, the population derived from the contaminated environment had a reduced risk of mortality and greater larval growth and in the contaminated environment, relative to offspring from the naïve population. Further, while survival in the uncontaminated environment was not compromised in offspring from the contaminant‐exposed population, they did show delayed development and reduced growth rates over larval development, relative to the naïve population. We found no evidence of reduced additive genetic variation in the contaminant‐exposed population, suggesting long‐term selection in a novel environment has not reduced the evolutionary potential of that population. We also saw little evidence that past selection in the ASH environment had reduced trait plasticity in the resident population. Maternal effects were prominent in early development, but we did not detect any trends suggesting these effects were associated with the maternal transfer of toxic trace elements. Our results demonstrate the potential for adaptation to multiple contaminants in a wild amphibian population, which may have facilitated long‐term persistence in a heavily impacted environment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan Mosaic

The LandScan program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in collaboration with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), continues to deliver the most accurate and up to date global, high resolution gridded population data. Additionally, the latest advancements in the LandScan HD methodology led to reduced latency in development of rapid updates for geopolitical events. With momentum towards reporting more up to date population estimates, feedback from the user community expressed interest in reporting population estimates in ranges - whether to express a level of uncertainty or confirm to leadership and stakeholders the modeled data are estimates. Building upon the need to understand uncertainty or confidence in the modeled data and report ranges at the global scale, LandScan Mosaic was developed. LandScan Mosaic represents the next generation of high-resolution population modeling, building upon the established success of previous LandScan HD iterations. While LandScan HD employed a deterministic big data fusion approach, LandScan Mosaic enhances this methodology by integrating advanced machine learning techniques to impute missing, yet crucial, population model parameters. This advancement allows for probabilistic modeling of building occupancy and population distribution, incorporating uncertainty quantification through Monte Carlo sampling methods. By combining big data fusion with machine learning-driven imputation and stochastic modeling, LandScan Mosaic provides a more comprehensive and robust representation of population dynamics. LandScan Mosaic will be following the in the footsteps of its longstanding counterpart LandScan Global and releasing a global gridded population raster, at the 3-arcsecond resolution. This technical report documents the current stage of development of LandScan Mosaic, detailing the methodologies and data sources behind the modeling. Stakeholders are encouraged to use this document as an authoritative reference for insight into Mosaic’s data development processes. However, readers should note that LandScan Mosaic remains in a late-stage research and development phase, and methodologies and data presented here are subject to refinements ahead of the anticipated global release in Summer 2025. Feedback and inquiries from users and stakeholders are welcomed as we continue to refine and enhance this important population resource.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthesizing land use and demographic change in Southeast Asia’s smaller urbanized areas from 2000–2015

The majority of the human population now reside in urban areas today. The United Nations estimates that nearly half of all urban dwellers currently live in cities smaller than 500 000 persons and the majority of future urban growth will take place in Asia and Africa, likely in these smaller urban areas, not mega cities. Thus, understanding the factors that influence urban demographic trajectories in small urban areas is critical to address sustainable and equitable policy initiatives related to food security, changing climate hazard exposure, and economic opportunities. Here we focus on Southeast Asia—a region historically characterized by lower urban population proportions, yet with a rapidly shifting dynamic demographic—to examine correlates of demographic change among smaller cities. We combine two open-source satellite-informed datasets: GHS urban center database (2015) and age-sex gridded data from WorldPop to calculate socio-demographic characteristics to model drivers of change in annualized urban population growth from 2000–2015 for 505 urbanized places. We find a general pattern of decreasing dependency ratios as city-size increases for most urban areas in Southeast Asia. Higher rates of growth and more variation is observed for smaller cities—those with fewer than 300 000 persons, the lowest population limit for UN data on urbanization. When examining covariates of urban population growth, we find significant statistical associations of population change in smaller urbanized areas with climatic, economic, and land cover/land use variables, but with country-specific variations. Characterizing a continuum of urban population development in the context of changing environmental, economic and climate conditions has been an important sustainable development and equity issue for decades, but newer analysis of city-level drivers allows for systematic inquiry thus moving beyond total population counts for policy-relevant insight.

Southeast Asia synthesis↗
DOE OSTI2022

UrbanPop: A spatial microsimulation framework for exploring demographic influences on human dynamics

Ensuring the social equity of planning measures in social systems requires an understanding of human dynamics, particularly how individual relationships, activities, and interactions intersect with individual needs. Spatial microsimulation models (SMSMs) support planning for human security goals by representing human dynamics through realistic, georeferenced synthetic populations, that a) provide a complete representation of social systems while b) also protecting individual privacy. In this paper, we present UrbanPop, an open and reproducible SMSM framework for analysis of human dynamics with high spatial, temporal, and demographic resolution. UrbanPop creates synthetic populations of demographically detailed worker and student agents, positioning them first at probable nighttime locations (home), then moving them to probable daytime locations (work/school). Summary aggregations of these populations match the granular detail available at the census block group level in the American Community Survey Summary File (SF), providing realistic approximations of the actual population. UrbanPop users can select particular demographic traits important in their application, resulting in a highly tailored agent population. We first lay out UrbanPop's baseline methodology, including population synthesis, activity modeling, and diagnostics, then demonstrate these capabilities by developing case studies of shifting population distributions and high-risk populations in Knox County, TN during the global COVID-19 pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Differential contagiousness of respiratory disease across the United States

The initial contagiousness of a communicable disease within a given population is quantified by the basic reproduction number, $R_0$. This number depends on both pathogen and population properties. On the basis of compartmental models that reproduce Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance data, we used Bayesian inference and the next-generation matrix approach to estimate region-specific $R_0$ values for 280 of 384 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States (US), which account for 95% of the US population living in urban areas and 82% of the total population. We focused on MSA populations after finding that these populations were more uniformly impacted by COVID-19 than state populations. Our maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates for $R_0$ range from 1.9 to 7.7 and quantify the relative susceptibilities of regional populations to spread of respiratory diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of genetic diversity, agronomic traits, and anthracnose resistance in the NPGS Sudan Sorghum Core collection

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Plant Germplasm System (NPGS) sorghum core collection contains 3011 accessions randomly selected from 77 countries. Genomic and phenotypic characterization of this core collection is necessary to encourage and facilitate its utilization in breeding programs and to improve conservation efforts. In this study, we examined the genome sequences of 318 accessions belonging to the NPGS Sudan sorghum core set, and characterized their agronomic traits and anthracnose resistance response. We identified 183,144 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located within or in proximity of 25,124 annotated genes using the genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) approach. The core collection was genetically highly diverse, with an average pairwise genetic distance of 0.76 among accessions. Population structure and cluster analysis revealed five ancestral populations within the Sudan core set, with moderate to high level of genetic differentiation. In total, 171 accessions (54%) were assigned to one of these populations, which covered 96% of the total genomic variation. Genome scan based on Tajima’s D values revealed two populations under balancing selection. Phenotypic analysis showed differences in agronomic traits among the populations, suggesting that these populations belong to different ecogeographical regions. A total of 55 accessions were resistant to anthracnose; these accessions could represent multiple resistance sources. Genome-wide association study based on fixed and random model Circulating Probability (farmCPU) identified genomic regions associated with plant height, flowering time, panicle length and diameter, and anthracnose resistance response. Integrated analysis of the Sudan core set and sorghum association panel indicated that a large portion of the genetic variation in the Sudan core set might be present in breeding programs but remains unexploited within some clusters of accessions. The NPGS Sudan core collection comprises genetically and phenotypically diverse germplasm with multiple anthracnose resistance sources. Population genomic analysis could be used to improve screening efforts and identify the most valuable germplasm for breeding programs. The new GBS data set generated in this study represents a novel genomic resource for plant breeders interested in mining the genetic diversity of the NPGS sorghum collection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Establishing connectivity patterns of eastern oysters ( Crassostrea virginica ) on regional oceanographic scales

Localized depletion of marine and estuarine populations often results from large-scale natural and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., hurricanes, oil spills) as well as overharvest of fisheries resources. Understanding how such localized depletions may affect populations at larger regional scales requires knowledge of connectivity among local populations within the larger regional landscape or metapopulation. Efforts to restore populations following such decreases require similar knowledge. During the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, dramatic declines of oysters occurred throughout estuaries west and east of the Mississippi River. We examined trajectories of particles, which were parameterized to mimic oyster larvae, using the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC; https://adcirc.org ) model to evaluate potential connectivity within and among embayments from Western Louisiana to Alabama. Patterns of larval settlement, which we defined as the intersection of a larval particle with known or expected oyster habitat at any point 13–21 days post-release, reflected much greater local contributions, with 50%–90% of settled particles originating within the same subdivision of embayments. Exchange among subdivision was much less (0%–40%) and settlement originating from outside the embayment of release was trivial under most scenarios (0%–14%). Connectivity between adjacent basins was greatest for larvae released in the southern portions of the embayment, whereas connectivity among nonadjacent basins was not predicted under the scenarios modeled. Because most local populations are relatively isolated on ecological timescales, areas suffering from extensive local depletion are likely to require extensive time to recover due to the lack of larval subsidy from the overall regional population. Restoration would require building stepping-stone populations or reefs within and among basin to restore a high degree of connectivity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cytochrome P450s CYP380C6 and CYP380C9 in green peach aphid facilitate its adaptation to indole glucosinolate‐mediated plant defense

Abstract BACKGROUND Overexpressing CIRCADIAN CLOCK ASSOCIATED1 in Arabidopsis thaliana ( CCA1‐ox ) increases indole glucosinolate production and resistance to green peach aphid ( Myzus persicae ). Little is known of how aphids respond to this group of plant defense compounds or of the underlying molecular mechanism. Results Aphids reared on CCA1‐ox for over 40 generations (namely the CCA population) became less susceptible to CCA1‐ox than aphids maintained on the wild‐type Col‐0 (namely the COL population). This elevated tolerance was transgenerational as it remained for at least eight generations after the CCA population was transferred to Col‐0. Intriguingly, transcriptome analysis indicated that all differential cytochrome P450 monooxygenase genes ( MpCYPs ), primarily MpCYP4 s, MpCYP380s and MpCYP6 s, were more highly expressed in the CCA population. Application of a P450 inhibitor to the CCA population resulted in decreased aphid reproduction on CCA1‐ox , which was not observed if aphids were reared on Col‐0. When indole glucosinolate biosynthesis in CCA1‐ox was blocked using virus‐induced gene silencing, the effect of the P450 inhibitor on the CCA population was attenuated, affirming the essential role played by MpCYPs in counteracting the defense mechanism in CCA1‐ox that is low or absent in Col‐0. Furthermore, we used host‐induced gene silencing to identify MpCYP380C6 and MpCYP380C9 that specifically facilitated the CCA population to cope with CCA1 ‐mediated plant defense. Expression profiles revealed their possible contribution to the transgenerational tolerance observed in aphids. Conclusion MpCYP380C6 and MpCYP380C9 in aphids play a crucial role in mitigating indole glucosinolate‐mediated plant defense, and this effect is transgenerational.

Ji, Rui↗
DOE OSTI2022

Revisiting stellar properties of star-forming galaxies with stellar and nebular spectral modelling

Spectral synthesis is a powerful tool for interpreting the physical properties of galaxies by decomposing their spectral energy distributions (SEDs) into the main luminosity contributors (e.g. stellar populations of distinct age and metallicity or ionised gas). However, the impact nebular emission has on the inferred properties of star-forming (SF) galaxies has been largely overlooked over the years, with unknown ramifications to the current understanding of galaxy evolution. The objective of this work is to estimate the relations between stellar properties (e.g. total mass, mean age, and mean metallicity) of SF galaxies by simultaneously fitting the stellar and nebular continua and comparing them to the results derived through the more common purely stellar spectral synthesis approach. The main galaxy sample from SDSS DR7 was analysed with two distinct population synthesis codes: FADO, which estimates self-consistently both the stellar and nebular contributions to the SED, and the original version of STARLIGHT, as representative of purely stellar population synthesis codes. Differences between codes regarding average mass, mean age and mean metallicity values can go as high as ~0.06 dex for the overall population of galaxies and ~0.12 dex for SF galaxies (galaxies with EW(Hα) > 3 Å), with the most prominent difference between both codes in the two populations being in the light-weighted mean stellar age. FADO presents a broader range of mean stellar ages and metallicities for SF galaxies than STARLIGHT, with the latter code preferring metallicity solutions around the solar value (Z ⊙ = 0.02). A closer look into the average light- and mass-weighted star formation histories of intensively SF galaxies (EW(Hα) > 75 Å) reveals that the light contributions of simple stellar populations (SSPs) younger than ≤10 7 (10 9 ) years in STARLIGHT are higher by ~5.41% (9.11%) compared to FADO. Moreover, FADO presents higher light contributions from SSPs with metallicity ≤ Z ⊙ /200 (Z ⊙ /50) of around 8.05% (13.51%) when compared with STARLIGHT. This suggests that STARLIGHT is underestimating the average light-weighted age of intensively SF galaxies by up to ~0.17 dex and overestimating the light-weighted metallicity by up to ~0.13 dex compared to FADO (or vice versa). The comparison between the average stellar properties of passive, SF and intensively SF galaxy samples also reveals that differences between codes increase with increasing EW(Hα) and decreasing total stellar mass. Moreover, comparing SF results from FADO in a purely stellar mode with the previous results qualitatively suggests that differences between codes are primarily due to mathematical and statistical differences and secondarily due to the impact of the nebular continuum modelling approach (or lack thereof). However, it is challenging to adequately quantify the relative role of each factor since they are likely interconnected. This work finds indirect evidence that a purely stellar population synthesis approach negatively impacts the inferred stellar properties (e.g. mean age and mean metallicity) of galaxies with relatively high star formation rates (e.g. dwarf spirals, ‘green peas’, and starburst galaxies). In turn, this can bias interpretations of fundamental relations such as the mass-age or mass-metallicity, which are factors worth bearing in mind in light of future high-resolution spectroscopic surveys at higher redshifts (e.g. MOONS and 4MOST-4HS).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental validation of a collision-radiation dataset for molecular hydrogen in plasmas

Quantitative spectroscopy of molecular hydrogen has generated substantial demand, leading to the accumulation of diverse elementary process data encompassing radiative transitions, electron-impact transitions, predissociations, and quenching. However, their rates currently available are still sparse, and there are inconsistencies among those proposed by different authors. In this study, we demonstrate an experimental validation of such a molecular dataset by composing a collisional-radiative model (CRM) for molecular hydrogen and comparing experimentally obtained vibronic populations across multiple levels. From the population kinetics of molecular hydrogen, the importance of each elementary process in various parameter space is studied. In low-density plasmas (electron density ne≲1017 m−3) the excitation rates from the ground states and radiative decay rates, both of which have been reported previously, determine the excited state population. The inconsistency in the excitation rates affects the population distribution the most significantly in this parameter space. However, in higher density plasmas (ne≳1018 m−3), the excitation rates from excited states become important, which have never been reported in the literature, and may need to be approximated in some way. In order to validate these molecular datasets and approximated rates, we carried out experimental observations for two different hydrogen plasmas; a low-density radio frequency heated plasma (ne≈1016 m−3) and the Large Helical Device (LHD) divertor plasma (ne≳1018 m−3). The visible emission lines from EF1Σg+, HH¯1Σg+, D1Πu±, GK1Σg+, I1Πg±, J1Δg±, h3Σg+, e3Σu+, d3Πu±,g3Σg+, i3Πg±, and j3Δg± states were observed simultaneously and their population distributions were obtained from their intensities. We compared the observed population distributions with the CRM prediction, in particular the CRM with the rates compiled by Janev et al., Miles et al., and those calculated with the molecular convergent close-coupling (MCCC) method. The MCCC prediction gives the best agreement with the experiment, particularly for the emission from the low-density plasma. However, the population distribution in the LHD divertor shows a worse agreement with the CRM than those from low-density plasma, indicating the necessity of the precise excitation rates from excited states. We also found that the rates for the electron attachment is inconsistent with experimental results. This requires further investigation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Meta-analysis identifies pleiotropic loci controlling phenotypic trade-offs in sorghum

Abstract Community association populations are composed of phenotypically and genetically diverse accessions. Once these populations are genotyped, the resulting marker data can be reused by different groups investigating the genetic basis of different traits. Because the same genotypes are observed and scored for a wide range of traits in different environments, these populations represent a unique resource to investigate pleiotropy. Here, we assembled a set of 234 separate trait datasets for the Sorghum Association Panel, a group of 406 sorghum genotypes widely employed by the sorghum genetics community. Comparison of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) conducted with two independently generated marker sets for this population demonstrate that existing genetic marker sets do not saturate the genome and likely capture only 35–43% of potentially detectable loci controlling variation for traits scored in this population. While limited evidence for pleiotropy was apparent in cross-GWAS comparisons, a multivariate adaptive shrinkage approach recovered both known pleiotropic effects of existing loci and new pleiotropic effects, particularly significant impacts of known dwarfing genes on root architecture. In addition, we identified new loci with pleiotropic effects consistent with known trade-offs in sorghum development. These results demonstrate the potential for mining existing trait datasets from widely used community association populations to enable new discoveries from existing trait datasets as new, denser genetic marker datasets are generated for existing community association populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Clues on the history of early-type galaxies from SDSS spectra and GALEX photometry

ABSTRACT Stellar population studies of early-type galaxies (ETGs) based on their optical stellar continuum suggest that these are quiescent systems. However, emission lines and ultraviolet photometry reveal a diverse population. We use a new version of the starlight spectral synthesis code and state-of-the-art stellar population models to simultaneously fit Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectra and Galaxy Evolution Explorer photometry for a sample of 3453 galaxies at z < 0.1 with near ultraviolet (NUV) − r > 5 that are classified as elliptical by Galaxy Zoo. We reproduce far ultraviolet (FUV) magnitudes for 80 per cent of UV upturn galaxies selected using criteria from the literature, suggesting that additional stellar population ingredients such as binaries and extreme horizontal branch stars may have a limited contribution to the UV upturn. The addition of ultraviolet data leads to a broadening of the distributions of mean stellar ages, metallicities, and attenuation. Stellar populations younger than $1\,$ Gyr are required to reproduce the ultraviolet emission in 17 per cent of our sample. These systems represent 43 per cent of the sample at 5 < NUV − r < 5.5 and span the same stellar mass range as other ETGs in our sample. ETGs with young stellar components have larger H α equivalent widths (WH α) and larger dust attenuation. Emission line ratios and WH α indicate that the ionizing source in these systems is a mixture of young and old stellar populations. Their young stellar populations are metal-poor, especially for high-mass galaxies, indicating recent star formation associated with rejuvenation events triggered by external processes, such as minor mergers.

Werle, A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Novel plant–microbe interactions: Rapid evolution of a legume–rhizobium mutualism in restored prairies

Abstract When plants colonize new habitats, the novel interactions they form with new mutualists or enemies can immediately affect plant performance. These novel interactions also may provoke rapid evolutionary responses and can be ideal scenarios for investigating how species interactions influence plant evolution. To explore how mutualists influence the evolution of colonizing plant populations, we capitalized on an experiment in which two former agricultural fields were seeded with identical prairie seed mixes in 2010. Six years later, we compared how populations of the legume Chamaecrista fasciculata from these sites and their original (shared) source population responded to nitrogen‐fixing rhizobia from the restoration sites in a greenhouse reciprocal cross‐inoculation experiment. We found that the two populations differed both from their original source population and from each other in the benefits they derive from rhizobia, and that one population has evolved reduced allocation to rhizobia (i.e. forms fewer rhizobium‐housing nodules). Synthesis . Our results suggest that these plant populations have evolved different ways of interacting with rhizobia, potentially in response to differences in rhizobium quality between sites. Our study illustrates how microbial mutualists may shape plant evolution in new environments and highlights how variation in microbial mutualists potentially may select for different evolutionary strategies in plant hosts.

Magnoli, Susan M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding local plant extinctions before it is too late: bridging evolutionary genomics with global ecology

Understanding evolutionary genomic and population processes within a species range is key to anticipating the extinction of plant species before it is too late. However, most models of biodiversity risk under global change do not account for the genetic variation and local adaptation of different populations. Population diversity is critical to understanding extinction because different populations may be more or less susceptible to global change and, if lost, would reduce the total diversity within a species. Here, two new modeling frameworks advance our understanding of extinction from a population and evolutionary angle: Rapid climate change-driven disruptions in population adaptation are predicted from associations between genomes and local climates. Furthermore, losses of population diversity from global land-use transformations are estimated by scaling relationships of species' genomic diversity with habitat area. Overall, these global eco-evolutionary methods advance the predictability – and possibly the preventability – of the ongoing extinction of plant species.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Genetic Basis of Wild Boar ( Sus scrofa ) and Its Connection to Classical Swine Fever Spread

Classical swine fever (CSF) is the one of the most devastating contagious diseases in domestic swine and wild boar/pigs (Sus scrofa). Population genetics is often used to estimate animal dispersal and can also help evaluate host population connectivity, which is crucial for understanding pathogen dispersal. We surveyed genetic population structure of boars using MIG-seq analysis to clarify the geographic barriers that influence boar dispersal in north-central Japan and to demonstrate the relationship between the spread of CSF infection among boars and their population structure. We obtained 382 single-nucleotide polymorphisms from 348 wild boar samples, and the results of STRUCTURE analysis indicated that the highest ΔK value was at K = 2, followed by K = 4. Based on these results, it is evident that the Abukuma river, a major river within north-central Japan, does not act as a barrier to the gene flow of boars, but rather that human infrastructure hinders their dispersal. Further, according to the time series change in the capture site of CSF-infected wild boar and the sum of the probability of belonging to each of the four clades in individual CSF-infected wild boar, our results indicated that the genetic structure of boar populations was correlated with the outbreak pathway of CSF across our study region. Our study suggests that predictions of disease spread, especially for widely distributed host species, is challenging because of the risk of cryptic breaks and changes in wide range connectivity; however, understanding the genetic population structure of wild boar can be a useful tool for predicting the spread of CSF. We concluded that genetic analysis of host population structure may have the possibility to improve predictions of the future dynamics of disease spread.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Active virus-host interactions at sub-freezing temperatures in Arctic peat soil

Abstract Background Winter carbon loss in northern ecosystems is estimated to be greater than the average growing season carbon uptake and is primarily driven by microbial decomposers. Viruses modulate microbial carbon cycling via induced mortality and metabolic controls, but it is unknown whether viruses are active under winter conditions (anoxic and sub-freezing temperatures). Results We used stable isotope probing (SIP) targeted metagenomics to reveal the genomic potential of active soil microbial populations under simulated winter conditions, with an emphasis on viruses and virus-host dynamics. Arctic peat soils from the Bonanza Creek Long-Term Ecological Research site in Alaska were incubated under sub-freezing anoxic conditions with H 2 18 O or natural abundance water for 184 and 370 days. We sequenced 23 SIP-metagenomes and measured carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) efflux throughout the experiment. We identified 46 bacterial populations (spanning 9 phyla) and 243 viral populations that actively took up 18 O in soil and respired CO 2 throughout the incubation. Active bacterial populations represented only a small portion of the detected microbial community and were capable of fermentation and organic matter degradation. In contrast, active viral populations represented a large portion of the detected viral community and one third were linked to active bacterial populations. We identified 86 auxiliary metabolic genes and other environmentally relevant genes. The majority of these genes were carried by active viral populations and had diverse functions such as carbon utilization and scavenging that could provide their host with a fitness advantage for utilizing much-needed carbon sources or acquiring essential nutrients. Conclusions Overall, there was a stark difference in the identity and function of the active bacterial and viral community compared to the unlabeled community that would have been overlooked with a non-targeted standard metagenomic analysis. Our results illustrate that substantial active virus-host interactions occur in sub-freezing anoxic conditions and highlight viruses as a major community-structuring agent that likely modulates carbon loss in peat soils during winter, which may be pivotal for understanding the future fate of arctic soils' vast carbon stocks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Evaluate the Cumulative Effects of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse: Sensitivity Analysis and Validation of Key Parameters

To address the need for an approach to evaluate cumulative ecological impacts of wind energy development, particularly those on critical wildlife habitats and species, the authors developed a proof-of-concept, landscape-based, spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM) framework for populations of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Albany County, Wyoming, based on published and other available information on the life history of the species. This sage-grouse IBM estimates the spatial and temporal movements of sage-grouse based on modeled effects of habitat characteristics and developments on sage-grouse condition, survivorship, and reproduction. After completing the initial version of the model, we conducted a series of sensitivity analyses of key model parameters and validation of lek occurrences and spatial distributions to better understand performance of the model relative to observed values of important life history characteristics. The parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted as a series of one-factor-at-a-time tests in which the values of selected parameters were individually varied to evaluate the corresponding effects on model output. We examined the model’s response to changes in parameter values to gain insight into the overall robustness of the model, identify key driver parameters, and initiate qualitative validation. Five functions selected for sensitivity analyses were (1) the rate of change in body condition in relationship to habitat suitability index (HSI) of occupied habitat (condition change rate), (2) the effect of competition between individuals with overlapping home ranges expressed as a percentage reduction in HSI (competition factor), (3) value of condition at which survivorship probability is equal to zero (zero survivorship condition), (4) the relationship between female body condition and clutch size, and (5) the relationship between female body condition and nest success. We varied the parameter values to be tested for the sensitivity analysis around the original value used in the model (i.e., tested values were higher and lower than the model’s original value) to examine the effect of this variation on the predicted output of the model. Model outputs evaluated in the sensitivity analysis included (1) predicted age-class distribution (as measured by the percentage of immature individuals within the population); (2) predicted sex ratio; (3) predicted age-sex class distribution (percent of population in each of six age-sex classes, i.e., male and female juveniles, yearlings, and adults); (4) lifespan; (5) population size; and (6) spatial distribution. Of the five parameters analyzed, condition change rate, survivorship, clutch size, and nest success did not substantially affect any of the evaluated model outputs. For the predicted age-class distribution, the percentage of immature individuals predicted by the model for these four parameters ranged from 61.9% to 65.0%, which was reasonable with respect to the reference values of 51.4 to 57.8% in published studies. The ratio of females to males ranged from 1.09 to 1.14, which was comparable to the reference values of 1.2 to 3.0 presented in an existing study. The predicted mean lifespan ranged from 1.62 to 1.74 years, which appears to be reasonable with respect to the reference values of 0.9 to 1.1 years for sharp-tail grouse and greater prairie chickens presented by published studies. The predicted population size ranged from 1,877 to 3,140. This prediction would be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county. The predicted spatial distribution was not substantially affected by the parameter values examined. In our sensitivity analyses, the only tested parameter that had a noticeable effect on model output was competition factor. Over the range of values tested for this parameter, predicted population size exhibited the largest range (from 1,833 to 4,737) of all parameters tested. As the competition factor increased, the predicted population size decreased. This reflects the effect competition had on the number of individuals that could co occur in high-quality habitat patches. Despite this apparently significant effect, the range of values appears to be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Similarity Downselection: Finding the n Most Dissimilar Molecular Conformers for Reference-Free Metabolomics

Computational methods for creating in silico libraries of molecular descriptors (e.g., collision cross sections) are becoming increasingly prevalent due to the limited number of authentic reference materials available for traditional library building. These so-called “reference-free metabolomics” methods require sampling sets of molecular conformers in order to produce high accuracy property predictions. Due to the computational cost of the subsequent calculations for each conformer, there is a need to sample the most relevant subset and avoid repeating calculations on conformers that are nearly identical. The goal of this study is to introduce a heuristic method of finding the most dissimilar conformers from a larger population in order to help speed up reference-free calculation methods and maintain a high property prediction accuracy. Finding the set of the n items most dissimilar from each other out of a larger population becomes increasingly difficult and computationally expensive as either n or the population size grows large. Because there exists a pairwise relationship between each item and all other items in the population, finding the set of the n most dissimilar items is different than simply sorting an array of numbers. For instance, if you have a set of the most dissimilar n = 4 items, one or more of the items from n = 4 might not be in the set n = 5. An exact solution would have to search all possible combinations of size n in the population exhaustively. We present an open-source software called similarity downselection (SDS), written in Python and freely available on GitHub. SDS implements a heuristic algorithm for quickly finding the approximate set(s) of the n most dissimilar items. We benchmark SDS against a Monte Carlo method, which attempts to find the exact solution through repeated random sampling. We show that for SDS to find the set of n most dissimilar conformers, our method is not only orders of magnitude faster, but it is also more accurate than running Monte Carlo for 1,000,000 iterations, each searching for set sizes n = 3–7 out of a population of 50,000. We also benchmark SDS against the exact solution for example small populations, showing that SDS produces a solution close to the exact solution in these instances. Using theoretical approaches, we also demonstrate the constraints of the greedy algorithm and its efficacy as a ratio to the exact solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗