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At least 631 records · Page 35

Nonlinear techniques for forecasting solar activity directly from its time series

Numerical techniques for constructing nonlinear predictive models to forecast solar flux directly from its time series are presented. This approach makes it possible to extract dynamical invariants of our system without reference to any underlying solar physics. We consider the dynamical evolution of solar activity in a reconstructed phase space that captures the attractor (strange), given a procedure for constructing a predictor of future solar activity, and discuss extraction of dynamical invariants such as Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimension.

Ashrafi, S.↗

Flares on the sun and other stars

Research on solar and stellar flares is reviewed. The characteristics of flares in various spectral regions are described, and the physics of flares is discussed, including the two-ribbon flare model, coronal mass ejections, flare dynamics, white light flare production, and electron beams and proton beams in hard X-ray flares. The analysis of the flare energy budget, magnetic field measurements, multispectral stellar observations, plasma emissivity, conditions in flare loops, cooling curves, and proton beam signatures is addressed. Microflaring and coronal heating are examined.

Haisch, Bernhard↗

Simulated Active Region Emission and Dynamics: A STEREO Perspective

We present detailed three-dimensional simulations of active regions resulting from numerical models of sunspots coupled to coronal excitation and emission. The models incorporate a fully three-dimensional magnetoconvection calculation, described in a poster by Hurlburt and Rucklidge, potential field extrapolations from the sunspot model boundary conditions, steady-state coronal loops powered by the convective motions at the surface, EUV and X-ray instrument response functions, and a full voxel rendering. The result is a simulated dynamical active region in three dimensions which enables us to explore coronal heating and its relationship to the dynamics of the photosphere and convection zone. The 3D rendering of the resulting EUV emission allows us to investigate the expected coronal signatures of the EUVI instruments on board the twin STEREO spacecraft to be launched in 2004. The hybrid model developed here also provides a simulation testbed for the development of future STEREO image reconstruction tools: an integral component in the access to STEREO data by the solar physics community.

Alexander, David↗

Spectral and Temporal Properties of the Ultra-Luminous X-Ray Pulsar in M82 from 15 Years of Chandra Observations and Analysis of the Pulsed Emission Using NuSTAR

The recent discovery by Bachetti et al. of a pulsar in M82 that can reach luminosities of up to 10(exp 40) erg s(exp -1), a factor of approximately 100 times the Eddington luminosity for a 1.4 solar mass compact object, poses a challenge for accretion physics. In order to better understand the nature of this source and its duty cycle, and in light of several physical models that have been subsequently published, we conduct a spectral and temporal analysis of the 0.58 keV X-ray emission from this source from 15 years of Chandra observations. We analyze 19 ACIS observations where the point-spread function (PSF) of the pulsar is not contaminated by nearby sources. We fit the Chandra spectra of the pulsar with a power-law model and a disk blackbody model, subjected to interstellar absorption in M82. We carefully assess for the effect of pile-up in our observations, where four observations have a pile-up fraction of 10, which we account for during spectral modeling with a convolution model. When fitted with a power-law model, the average photon index when the source is at high luminosity (LX greater than 10(exp 39) erg s(exp -1) is equal to gamma 1.33 +/-.0.15. For the disk blackbody model, the average temperature is T(sub in) 3.24 +/- 0.65 keV, the spectral shape being consistent with other luminous X-ray pulsars. We also investigated the inclusion of a soft excess component and spectral break, finding that the spectra are also consistent with these features common to luminous X-ray pulsars. In addition, we present spectral analysis from NuSTAR over the 3-50 keV range where we have isolated the pulsed component. We find that the pulsed emission in this band is best fit by a power-law with a high-energy cutoff, where gamma is equal to 0.6 +/- 0.3 and E(sub C) is equal to 14(exp +5) (sub -3)) keV. While the pulsar has previously been identified as a transient, we find from our longer-baseline study that it has been remarkably active over the 15-year period, where for 9/19 (47%) observations that we analyzed, the pulsar appears to be emitting at a luminosity in excess of 10( exp (39) erg s (exp −1), greater than 10 times its Eddington limit.

individual (M82) - stars: neutron X rays; binaries↗

Modeling Stellar Jitter and its Effects on the Stellar Spectrum for More Precise Radial Velocity Measurements

Detection of Earth-size exoplanets is a technological and data analysis challenge. Future progress in Earth-mass exoplanet detection is expected from the development of extreme precision radial velocity (EPRV) measurements. The required precision of these measurements necessitates developing a new physics-based data analysis methodology to discriminate planetary signals from host-star-related effects, taking stellar variability and instrumental uncertainties into account. In this work, we investigate and quantify stellar disturbances of the planet-hosting solar-type star HD121504 from 3D radiative modeling obtained with the StellarBox code. The model was used to determine the statistical properties of the turbulent plasma and to obtain synthetic spectroscopic observations for several Fe I lines at different locations on the stellar disk to mimic high-resolution spectroscopic observations. Presented are the initial results of our effort to characterize stellar jitter properties as well as future objectives.

SMD↗

Spectral Polarization Distribution Models (PDMs) for NASA CLARREO Pathfinder’s Inter-Calibration Applications

Solar radiation scattered by Earth surfaces of various scene types such as oceans, deserts, tree leaves etc and atmospheric molecules and particles is polarized and the amount of polarization depends on the surface composition and particle physical properties. This can be a source of measurement errors in satellite data if a non-polarimetric radiometric sensor is sensitive to the polarization state of light. To obtain highly accurate spectral solar radiation data from the Earth-atmosphere system for the space-borne inter-calibration studies as proposed in NASA's Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission and the CLARREO Pathfinder (CPF) mission, the spectral polarization state of the reflected solar light at the top of atmosphere (TOA) must be known with sufficient accuracy. The degree of polarization (DOP) and the angle of linear polarization (AOLP) of the light at the TOA as functions of incident and viewing geometry and scene type construct the Polarization Distribution Models (PDMs) for correction of polarization-induced error of satellite data. In this work, algorithms for modeling the spectral polarization state of reflected sunlight from various types of Earth, including oceans, deserts, vegetated land surfaces and these scene types with all kinds of clouds, are developed. By comparing the model results with the PARASOL satellite data, our numerical results demonstrate that the model can provide a reliable approach for making the spectral PDMs for wavelengths between 320 and 2300 nm for satellite inter-calibration applications as proposed in the CLARREO and the CLARREO CPF missions.

Sun, Wenbo↗

An analysis of physics limited dispatch of nuclear renewable integrated energy systems using deep reinforcement learning and dynamic modeling

Previous approaches to dispatching nuclear integrated energy systems (NIES) have focused on the profitability and flexibility of these systems to operate on energy grids with highly variable pricing. However, due to the complexity involved in modeling and designing these systems, there has been less emphasis on ensuring that these dispatch strategies are physically achievable. It is imperative to develop methods that allow the system to remain within the desired NIES operating conditions and perform this based on realistic limited forecasted information. This research employs next generation artificial intelligence, namely deep reinforcement learning (DRL), and a dynamic system model written in Modelica to find a safe and profitable dispatch strategy for a solar nuclear hybrid design. The DRL agent is shown to find a novel dispatch strategy that manages both power ramping and power levels while respecting operational limits. This DRL-based dispatch is compared to other dispatching strategies including an optimal design solution from mixed integer linear programming (MILP). It is found that incorporating the physics of such a tightly coupled NIES limits the profitability of the MILP-based dispatch strategy. As a result, the MILP solution overestimates the design’s generated revenue. In contrast, DRL significantly reduces the number of breaches of safe operational conditions during energy arbitrage while maintaining profitability. Furthermore, this work paves the way for a more detailed assessment of NIES profitability and could be used to aid operator decisions on future NIES projects.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗

The FLUKA code for space applications: recent developments

The FLUKA Monte Carlo transport code is widely used for fundamental research, radioprotection and dosimetry, hybrid nuclear energy system and cosmic ray calculations. The validity of its physical models has been benchmarked against a variety of experimental data over a wide range of energies, ranging from accelerator data to cosmic ray showers in the earth atmosphere. The code is presently undergoing several developments in order to better fit the needs of space applications. The generation of particle spectra according to up-to-date cosmic ray data as well as the effect of the solar and geomagnetic modulation have been implemented and already successfully applied to a variety of problems. The implementation of suitable models for heavy ion nuclear interactions has reached an operational stage. At medium/high energy FLUKA is using the DPMJET model. The major task of incorporating heavy ion interactions from a few GeV/n down to the threshold for inelastic collisions is also progressing and promising results have been obtained using a modified version of the RQMD-2.4 code. This interim solution is now fully operational, while waiting for the development of new models based on the FLUKA hadron-nucleus interaction code, a newly developed QMD code, and the implementation of the Boltzmann master equation theory for low energy ion interactions. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-NASA Center↗

Caltech Lab Experiments and the Insights They Provide Into Solar Corona Phenomena

A comprehensive overview of two decades of Caltech experiments relevant to solar corona physics is presented. The extent to which the experiments scale to the solar corona, the basic configurations and operation, and the importance of the magnetic force J × B common to all the experiments is discussed. Summaries are given of the various configurations used, the main observations, and interpretations of these observations, including new models developed to provide these interpretations. Topics include observations and explanations for flux rope self-collimation, axial flows along flux ropes, eruption of arched flux ropes, strapping magnetic fields that inhibit eruption, the torus instability, and effects such as X-ray emission of a kink-driven secondary Rayleigh-Taylor instability.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Observed and computed stellar line profiles - The roles played by partial redistribution, geometrical extent and expansion

Partial redistribution (PRD) radiative transfer is reviewed with emphasis on the complex interaction of observations and theoretical predictions of spectral line shapes. Although the physics of PRD was understood and formal solutions to the radiative transfer equation including PRD were published as early as 1962, more than a decade elapsed before the clear inconsistency between observed and theoretical profiles calculated with the restrictive assumption of complete redistribution stimulated the development and use of PRD semiempirical spectral analysis for the solar Lyman alpha, Ca II, and Mg II resonance lines. Work is summarized that led to 'realistic' plane parallel static chromospheric models for the sun and other late type stars, with emphasis on the determination of the temperature minimum at the base of the chromosphere and the physical basis for resonance line limb darkening, the brightness of the line wings, and the width of the emission features. Finally the various roles played by atmospheric extension and expansion (winds) in determining resonance line profile shapes are discussed, and the existing PRD calculations for late type stars are summarized.

Linsky, J. L.↗

Physics of the Dayside Magnetosphere: New Results From a Hybrid Kinetic Code

We use a global hybrid code kinetic model to demonstrate how kinetic processes at the bow shock and within the foreshock can dramatically modify the solar wind just before its interaction with the magnetosphere. During periods of steady radial interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation, the foreshock fills with a diffuse population of suprathermal ions. The ions generate cavities marked by enhanced temperatures, depressed densities, and diminished magnetic field strengths that convect antisunward into the bow shock with the solar wind flow. Tangential discontinuities marked by inward-pointing electric fields and normals transverse to the Sun-Earth line generate hot flow anomalies marked by hot tenuous plasmas bounded by outward propagating shocks. When the motional electric field in the magnetosheath points inward towards the Earth, a solitary bow shock appears. For typical IMF orientations, the solitary shocks should appear at poorly sampled high latitudes, but for strongly northward or southward IMF orientations the solitary shocks should appear on the flanks of the magnetosphere. Although quasi-perpendicular, solitary shocks should be marked by turbulent magnetosheath flows, often directed towards the Sun-Earth line, and abrupt spike-like enhancements in the density and magnetic field strength at the shock. Finally,we show how flux transfer events generated between parallel subsolar reconnection lines are destroyed upon encountering the magnetopause at latitudes above the cusp.

Siebeck, D. G.↗

Time-Dependent Structure of the Upper Atmosphere

The physical properties of the upper atmosphere are determined mainly by heat conduction, the heat sources and the barometric law. An analysis of the integro-differential equation which describes these physical processes has been carried out. It is found that heating of the thermosphere due to absorption of the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation alone cannot explain the observed diurnal variation of density and temperature, since it would yield a maximum of these properties at about 17h local time, instead of 14h where it is observed. Secondly, if the EUV flux is adjusted to give the observed average temperature, then the diurnal variation in density would be much too large compared with the observed amplitude. Thirdly, it would require an extremely high efficiency for the conversion of EUV radiation into heat, if we compare the required flux with Hinteregger's measurements of the EUV flux. Thus, it is necessary to have another heat source in addition to the heating due to absorption of EUV radiation. If an additional beat source is used, which has a maximum at about 9h local time and a flux of 1 erg cm−1 sec−1, a time-dependent model of the upper atmosphere is obtained that is in good agreement with the observed densities. There is evidence that this additional heat source derives its energy ultimately from the solar corpuscular radiation. In this paper we present the results of calculations for a model in the equatorial and temperature zones of the earth, for those times when the average solar activity corresponds to a solar radiation flux of 200×110−22 Wm−2 (cps)−1 at 10.7-cm wavelength. The physical properties (temperature, density, pressure, scale height, mean molecular weight and the number densities of N2, O2, O, He and H) are given as a function of local time and for the altitudes between 120 km and 2050 km.

ATMOSPHERE↗

Probabilistic Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and the K p index

Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index K p in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic K p predictions using a variety of methods – including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks – but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-hour-ahead K p prediction with uncertainty bounds and from this provide a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecast. Specifically, we have used a two-layered architecture to separately predict storm (K p ≥ 5 – ) and non-storm cases. As solar wind-driven models are limited in their ability to predict the onset of transient-driven activity we also introduce a model variant using solar X-ray flux to assess whether simple models including proxies for solar activity can improve the predictions of geomagnetic storm activity with lead times longer than the L1-to-Earth propagation time. By comparing the performance of these models we show that including operationally-available information about solar irradiance enhances the ability of predictive models to capture the onset of geomagnetic storms and that this can be achieved while also enabling probabilistic forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modeling and data assimilation for Mars Observer

The Mars Observer mission will return a substantial set of meteorological data for the atmosphere of Mars, principally in the form of thermal infrared soundings from the Pressure Modulator Infrared Radiometer (PMIRR). The dataset will enable global studies of a range of dynamical and physical phenomena in the martian atmosphere. The solar orbital configuration of Mars Observer, however, means that the coverage of the martian atmosphere and surface by remote sounding instruments will be asynchronous. This leads to difficulties of interpretation when studying synoptic-scale phenomena with timescales of a few days. In an attempt to overcome such problems we propose to use data assimilation techniques, as currently employed for operational weather forecasting on the Earth, in conjunction with a Martian General Circulation Model (MGCM) that is under development at Oxford and Reading Universities. An overview of the model and assimilation scheme will be given, with reference to problems encountered so far in applying such methods to remote-sensing observations of the martian atmosphere.

Lewis, Stephen R.↗

Impulsive H-alpha diagnostics of electron-beam-heated solar flare model chromospheres

Time-dependent H-alpha profiles were computed for the dynamic model atmospheres of Fisher, Canfield, and McClymont (1985) simulating the effects of an intense impulsively initiated power-law beam of electrons incident on the chromosphere. The temporal response of H-alpha arises from three separate physical mechanisms, whose relative importance varies over the line profile. The fastest variations (typically less than 0.1 s for the explosive heating discussed here) arise from energy imbalance; these are apparent on chromospheric heating and cooling time scales and have their greatest amplitude at line center. Slower variations arise from ionization imbalance and are most apparent in the blue wing. The slowest variations arise from hydrodynamic effects and are related to the formation of a chromospheric condensation; these are most apparent in the red wing. These results provide a basis for the design and analysis of observations of H-alpha, in coordination with hard X-rays or microwaves, to test mechanisms of energy transport in solar flares.

Canfield, Richard C.↗

A Multidisciplinary Modeling Approach of Plant Gas Exchange in Reduced Gravity Environments

In-situ food production is a necessary step for human exploration of the solar system and requires a deep understanding of plant growth in reduced gravity environments. In particular, the lack of buoyancy-driven convection changes the gas exchange at the leaf surface, which decreases photosynthesis and transpiration rates, and ultimately biomass production. To understand the intricate relations between physical, chemical, and biochemical processes, the following methodology combines the development of a mechanistic model of plant growth in reduced gravity environments, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, and experiments in different time frames.The model presented here is a coupled mass and energy balance using the single round leaf assumption, including gravity as an entry parameter, and the leaf surface temperature as an output variable. Measures of the leaf surface temperature using infra-red cameras allow for a computation of the transpiration rate. This approach was followed to design a parabolic flight experiment, which performed 7 flights, and enabled data collection for model validation in different gravity and ventilation settings on a short time frame. Current measures of carbon assimilation and transpiration rate at the leaf and canopy level using an infra-red gas analyzer (Li-6800) in 1g lab conditions on several species will enable a validation on longer time frames and further calibration of the model. CFD studies both on the parabolic flight and on the lab experimental set-up allow the precise assessment of ventilation above the canopy and plants' leaves.Ultimately, this work will provide recommendations for the design of future plant growth hardware, especially on the lowest adequate ventilation for optimal plant growth in reduced gravity environments, as well as assessing biomass and oxygen production rates on planetary surfaces and space stations. This work was funded by CNES, CNRS, Clermont Auvergne Metropole, and NASA Space Biology through NASA postdoctoral program / USRA.

Poulet, Lucie↗

Organic analysis of lunar samples and the Martian surface.

In addition to the organogenic elements (H, C, N, O, S, P) which are necessary for the synthesis of organic molecules, the lunar samples from Apollo 11, 12, 14, and 15 contain substantial amounts of CO, N2, and CO2 which are released at relatively high temperatures and smaller amounts of more complex organic compounds (e.g., benzene). The lunar surface provides one of the less favorable solar system models for the synthesis of organic compounds; yet small amounts of these compounds have been detected in the returned samples. It is reasonable to assume that the different physical and developmental features of the planet Mars (increased gravitational field, presence of an atmosphere with CO2, CO, and H2O, recent volcanic and tectonic activity, etc.) would favor an increased organic content of the surface of this planet relative to the moon. Therefore the organic molecules present in the Martian soil should be measurable by miniaturized mass spectrometers after fractional distillation or gas chromatographic separation of the volatiles released by moderate heating.

Oro, J.↗

The energy balance of the solar wind

The effects of modifying some of the 'classical' assumptions underlying many of the solar wind models constructed over the past 20 years are examined in an effort to obtain both a better fit with the observations and a deeper understanding of the relevant physical processes.

Hollweg, J. V.↗