Results for “ordered statistics” — Page 35

NASA NTRS2013

Downscaling MODIS Land Surface Temperature for Urban Public Health Applications

This study is part of a project funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Program, which focuses on Earth science applications of remote sensing data for enhancing public health decision-making. Heat related death is currently the number one weather-related killer in the United States. Mortality from these events is expected to increase as a function of climate change. This activity sought to augment current Heat Watch/Warning Systems (HWWS) with NASA remotely sensed data, and models used in conjunction with socioeconomic and heatrelated mortality data. The current HWWS do not take into account intra-urban spatial variation in risk assessment. The purpose of this effort is to evaluate a potential method to improve spatial delineation of risk from extreme heat events in urban environments by integrating sociodemographic risk factors with estimates of land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal remote sensing data. In order to further improve the consideration of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat, we also developed and evaluated a number of spatial statistical techniques for downscaling the 1-km daily MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data to 60 m using Landsat-derived LST data, which have finer spatial but coarser temporal resolution than MODIS. In this paper, we will present these techniques, which have been demonstrated and validated for Phoenix, AZ using data from the summers of 2000-2006.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗

NASA NTRS2013

Downscaling MODIS Land Surface Temperature for Urban Public Health Applications

This study is part of a project funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Program, which focuses on Earth science applications of remote sensing data for enhancing public health decision-making. Heat related death is currently the number one weather-related killer in the United States. Mortality from these events is expected to increase as a function of climate change. This activity sought to augment current Heat Watch/Warning Systems (HWWS) with NASA remotely sensed data, and models used in conjunction with socioeconomic and heatrelated mortality data. The current HWWS do not take into account intra-urban spatial variation in risk assessment. The purpose of this effort is to evaluate a potential method to improve spatial delineation of risk from extreme heat events in urban environments by integrating sociodemographic risk factors with estimates of land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal remote sensing data. In order to further improve the consideration of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat, we also developed and evaluated a number of spatial statistical techniques for downscaling the 1-km daily MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data to 60 m using Landsat-derived LST data, which have finer spatial but coarser temporal resolution than MODIS. In this paper, we will present these techniques, which have been demonstrated and validated for Phoenix, AZ using data from the summers of 2000-2006.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗

NASA NTRS2000

Quantum Interferometry

Recently, several researchers, including yours truly, have been able to demonstrate theoretically that quantum photon entanglement has the potential to also revolutionize the entire field of optical interferometry, by providing many orders of magnitude improvement in interferometer sensitivity. The quantum entangled photon interferometer approach is very general and applies to many types of interferometers. In particular, without nonlocal entanglement, a generic classical interferometer has a statistical-sampling shot-noise limited sensitivity that scales like 1/Sqrt[N], where N is the number of particles (photons, electrons, atoms, neutrons) passing through the interferometer per unit time. However, if carefully prepared quantum correlations are engineered between the particles, then the interferometer sensitivity improves by a factor of Sqrt[N] (square root of N) to scale like 1/N, which is the limit imposed by the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. For optical (laser) interferometers operating at milliwatts of optical power, this quantum sensitivity boost corresponds to an eight-order-of-magnitude improvement of signal to noise. Applications are to tests of General Relativity such as ground and orbiting optical interferometers for gravity wave detection, Laser Interferometer Gravity Observatory (LIGO) and the European Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), respectively.

Dowling, Jonathan P.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Flare Statistics for Young Stars from a Convolutional Neural Network Analysis of TESS Data

All-sky photometric time-series missions have allowed for the monitoring of thousands of young (t(age) < 800 Myr) stars in order to understand the evolution of stellar activity. Here, we developed a convolutional neural network (CNN), stella, specifically trained to find flares in Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) short-cadence data. We applied the network to 3200 young stars in order to evaluate flare rates as a function of age and spectral type. The CNN takes a few seconds to identify flares on a single light curve. We also measured rotation periods for 1500 of our targets and find that flares of all amplitudes are present across all spot phases, suggesting high spot coverage across the entire surface. Additionally, flare rates and amplitudes decrease for stars t(age) > 50 Myr across all temperatures T(eff) ≥ 4000 K, while stars from 2300 ≤ T(eff) < 4000 K show no evolution across 800 Myr. Stars of T(eff) ≤ 4000 K also show higher flare rates and amplitudes across all ages. We investigate the effects of high flare rates on photoevaporative atmospheric mass loss for young planets. In the presence of flares, planets lose 4%–7% more atmosphere over the first 1 Gyr. stella is an open-source Python toolkit hosted on GitHub and PyPI.

Adina D. Feinstein↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben D Phillips↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben Phillips↗

NASA NTRS1992

Asymptotic modal analysis and statistical energy analysis

Asymptotic Modal Analysis (AMA) is a method which is used to model linear dynamical systems with many participating modes. The AMA method was originally developed to show the relationship between statistical energy analysis (SEA) and classical modal analysis (CMA). In the limit of a large number of modes of a vibrating system, the classical modal analysis result can be shown to be equivalent to the statistical energy analysis result. As the CMA result evolves into the SEA result, a number of systematic assumptions are made. Most of these assumptions are based upon the supposition that the number of modes approaches infinity. It is for this reason that the term 'asymptotic' is used. AMA is the asymptotic result of taking the limit of CMA as the number of modes approaches infinity. AMA refers to any of the intermediate results between CMA and SEA, as well as the SEA result which is derived from CMA. The main advantage of the AMA method is that individual modal characteristics are not required in the model or computations. By contrast, CMA requires that each modal parameter be evaluated at each frequency. In the latter, contributions from each mode are computed and the final answer is obtained by summing over all the modes in the particular band of interest. AMA evaluates modal parameters only at their center frequency and does not sum the individual contributions from each mode in order to obtain a final result. The method is similar to SEA in this respect. However, SEA is only capable of obtaining spatial averages or means, as it is a statistical method. Since AMA is systematically derived from CMA, it can obtain local spatial information as well.

Dowell, Earl H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mass-Specific Power at the Organism and Biosphere Level

The concept of mass-specific power (MSP) quantitatively relates energy flux to the biomass that flux can sustain. We sought to assess the range and distribution of MSP as expressed at both the organism and biosphere level. The former serves to establish what is possible, and what predominates, in physiological terms; the latter reflects the expression of that physiological potential in an environmental context. To assess the potential range of MSP across a diversity of organisms and physiological states, we compiled a data set of more than 10,000 individual MSP measurements, encompassing more than 2900 unique species and spanning 22 orders of magnitude in body mass. Across the data set, MSP varies over six orders of magnitude, from 3 x 10-5 to 49 Watts per gram biomass carbon (W/gC), but the majority of measured values fall within a relatively narrow range of 0.018 ± 6.4-fold W/gC. It is well documented, and clearly expressed in the data set, that MSP exhibits a strong mass dependence within specific taxa (e.g., birds, mammals, and many others); however, MSP exhibits no mass dependence when considering the data set overall. To assess the expression of MSP in environmental context, we estimated energy utilization rates within eight distinct components of the global biosphere, and for the biosphere overall, and used recently published estimates of biomass within those components to compute MSP. We estimate MSP of 0.005 W/gC for the global biosphere as a whole. The close agreement with the organism-level all-species mean (within 4-fold) is noteworthy because the organism-level data set is dominated in statistical terms by animals, while the global biosphere is dominated in mass terms by trees and microorganisms. The various components of the microbe-dominated marine biosphere exhibit a systematic 5 order of magnitude decrease in MSP from the top of the water column (marine primary producers: 0.9 W/gC) to the depths of the sediment column (> 1m sediment biota: 3 x 10-6 W/gC). Biomass turnover rates, combined with the microbial capacity for both high specific growth rates and low maintenance rates, appear to underlie this large range in MSP, which is not expressed to the same extent in the terrestrial biosphere.

Tori M Hoehler↗

NASA NTRS1998

Statistical Treatment of Earth Observing System Pyroshock Separation Test Data

The Earth Observing System (EOS) AM-1 spacecraft for NASA's Mission to Planet Earth is scheduled to be launched on an Atlas IIAS vehicle in June of 1998. One concern is that the instruments on the EOS spacecraft are sensitive to the shock-induced vibration produced when the spacecraft separates from the launch vehicle. By employing unique statistical analysis to the available ground test shock data, the NASA Lewis Research Center found that shock-induced vibrations would not be as great as the previously specified levels of Lockheed Martin. The EOS pyroshock separation testing, which was completed in 1997, produced a large quantity of accelerometer data to characterize the shock response levels at the launch vehicle/spacecraft interface. Thirteen pyroshock separation firings of the EOS and payload adapter configuration yielded 78 total measurements at the interface. The multiple firings were necessary to qualify the newly developed Lockheed Martin six-hardpoint separation system. Because of the unusually large amount of data acquired, Lewis developed a statistical methodology to predict the maximum expected shock levels at the interface between the EOS spacecraft and the launch vehicle. Then, this methodology, which is based on six shear plate accelerometer measurements per test firing at the spacecraft/launch vehicle interface, was used to determine the shock endurance specification for EOS. Each pyroshock separation test of the EOS spacecraft simulator produced its own set of interface accelerometer data. Probability distributions, histograms, the median, and higher order moments (skew and kurtosis) were analyzed. The data were found to be lognormally distributed, which is consistent with NASA pyroshock standards. Each set of lognormally transformed test data produced was analyzed to determine if the data should be combined statistically. Statistical testing of the data's standard deviations and means (F and t testing, respectively) determined if data sets were significantly different at a 95-percent confidence level. If two data sets were found to be significantly different, these families of data were not combined for statistical purposes. This methodology produced three separate statistical data families of shear plate data. For each population, a P99.1/50 (probability/confidence) per-separation-nut firing level was calculated. By using the binomial distribution, Lewis researchers determined that this pernut firing level was equivalent to a P95/50 per-flight confidence level. The overall envelope of the per-flight P95/50 levels led to Lewis' recommended EOS interface shock endurance specification. A similar methodology was used to develop Lewis' recommended EOS mission assurance levels. The available test data for the EOS mission are significantly larger than for a normal mission, thus increasing the confidence level in the calculated expected shock environment. Lewis significantly affected the EOS mission by properly employing statistical analysis to the data. This analysis prevented a costly requalification of the spacecraft's instruments, which otherwise would have been exposed to significantly higher test levels.

McNelis, Anne M.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The relationship of sensor parameters to applications data analysis

A stochastic model for the data acquisition system in a multispectral scanner system, like the one utilized by the LANDSAT satellites, is presented. A list of noise sources which are known or presumed to have a significant effect in the information extraction process was constructed. Since the shot noise introduced by the photodetectors in the sensor system is signal level dependent, an atmospheric model was adopted which could adequately describe the amount of radiation that gets into the sensors based on the atmospheric transmittance. An analysis was carried out to find the output spectral statistics in terms of the input signal statistics and the system parameters. This was integrated into a set of FORTRAN programs that when supplied with, the class statistics, the noise levels introduced by the sensor system, the atmospheric transmittance, and the atmospheric path radiance, can be used to estimate the classification performance. In order to show the beneficts of this model a series of runs were performed in which the Thematic Mapper multispectral scanner was the system under consideration.

Landgrebe, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Proper orthogonal decomposition based turbulence modeling

The proper orthogonal decomposition is utilized to provide one mode estimates of various turbulence quantities in the near-wall region of the turbulent boundary layer. The experimental data of Herzog (1986) and the direct numerical simulation (DNS) results of Zang (1991) proved the two-point correlation tensor. The correlation tensor is then used as the kernel in the integral eigenvalue problem from which the proper orthogonal modes are obtained. The one mode estimates of the turbulent kinetic energy, dissipation, and triple moments all exhibit the proper asymtotic behavior near the wall. As a validation test, a model for the triple moments is developed and its near-wall behavior is studied. This information can then be used to obtain an estimate of the damping function near the wall, which is then compared to known existing behavior. Since this is an initial investigation, the streamwise and spanwise dependence is surpressed and only the wall normal direction (y+) behavior of various turbulence statistics near the wall is studied. Before examining one mode estimates of the triple moments and the dissipation (on which the model is based), various second order moments are examined. If these do not exhibit the proper behavior near the wall (as discussed by Speziale et al 1990) it does not seem reasonable to expect the one mode estimate of the triple moment and dissipation to have the right behavior. Only the results obtained using the experimental data of Herzog are discussed since the results from the simulations of Zang exhibit similar behavior as discussed above.

Glauser, Mark N.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Diffuse reflection from a stochastically bounded, semi-infinite medium

In order to determine the diffuse reflection from a medium bounded by a rough surface, the problem of radiative transfer in a boundary layer characterized by a statistical distribution of heights is considered. For the case that the surface is defined by a multivariate normal probability density, the propagation probability for rays traversing the boundary layer is derived and, from that probability, a corresponding radiative transfer equation. A solution of the Eddington (two stream) type is found explicitly, and examples are given. The results should be applicable to reflection from the regoliths of solar system bodies, as well as from a rough ocean surface.

Lumme, K.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Quasar absorption lines with a nonzero cosmological constant

Quasar absorption lines in flat universes with nonzero cosmological constant Lambda are examined and compared with more conventional zero Lambda universes. Various evolution effects for intergalactic absorbers and the observed number density evolution of each absorption system are examined in order to discriminate between evolution effects and the cosmological models. An interesting interaction between Lambda effects and cosmic absorption phenomena is explored. Equations describing IGM absorption statistics are developed for nonzero Lambda cosmologies, both for unevolving absorber populations and some of the more popular physical models for the IGM and intergalactic clouds which include the effects of the absorber evolution.

Turner, Edwin L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Threshold effects on V/V(max) for gamma-ray bursts

The interpretation of the observed gamma-ray burst V/V(max) statistic in terms of spatial distributions is model-dependent. Detection of gamma-ray bursts requires the counting rate in one or more detectors to exceed a threshold C(lim) determined from a time-dependent background rate B(t). The sampling depth of the burst detector is thus time-dependent, and, if burst sources are nonuniform in space, the observed V/V(max) distribution will be affected by B(t). We demonstrate this effect with a simple geometric distribution of standard candles and argue that V/V(max) statistic without information on threshold variations is insufficient for rigorous data analysis. Peak count rates and threshold values must be given separately for all events in order to facilitate a meaningful comparison of observations with theoretical distribution models.

Hartmann, D. H.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Grid Resolution Study over Operability Space for a Mach 1.7 Low Boom External Compression Inlet

This paper presents a statistical methodology whereby the probability limits associated with CFD grid resolution of inlet flow analysis can be determined which provide quantitative information on the distribution of that error over the specified operability range. The objectives of this investigation is to quantify the effects of both random (accuracy) and systemic (biasing) errors associated with grid resolution in the analysis of the Lockheed Martin Company (LMCO) N+2 Low Boom external compression supersonic inlet. The study covers the entire operability space as defined previously by the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) High Speed Research (HSR) program goals. The probability limits in terms of a 95.0% confidence interval on the analysis data were evaluated for four ARP1420 inlet metrics, namely (1) total pressure recovery (PFAIP), (2) radial hub distortion (DPH/P), (3) ) radial tip distortion (DPT/P), and (4) ) circumferential distortion (DPC/P). In general, the resulting +/-0.95 delta Y interval was unacceptably large in comparison to the stated goals of the HSCT program. Therefore, the conclusion was reached that the "standard grid" size was insufficient for this type of analysis. However, in examining the statistical data, it was determined that the CFD analysis results at the outer fringes of the operability space were the determining factor in the measure of statistical uncertainty. Adequate grids are grids that are free of biasing (systemic) errors and exhibit low random (precision) errors in comparison to their operability goals. In order to be 100% certain that the operability goals have indeed been achieved for each of the inlet metrics, the Y+/-0.95 delta Y limit must fall inside the stated operability goals. For example, if the operability goal for DPC/P circumferential distortion is ≤0.06, then the forecast Y for DPC/P plus the 95% confidence interval on DPC/P, i.e. +/-0.95 delta Y, must all be less than or equal to 0.06.

Grid↗

NASA NTRS2012

FERMI/GLAST Integrated Trending and Plotting System Release 5.0

An Integrated Trending and Plotting System (ITPS) is a trending, analysis, and plotting system used by space missions to determine performance and status of spacecraft and its instruments. ITPS supports several NASA mission operational control centers providing engineers, ground controllers, and scientists with access to the entire spacecraft telemetry data archive for the life of the mission, and includes a secure Web component for remote access. FERMI/GLAST ITPS Release 5.0 features include the option to display dates (yyyy/ddd) instead of orbit numbers along orbital Long-Term Trend (LTT) plot axis, the ability to save statistics from daily production plots as image files, and removal of redundant edit/create Input Definition File (IDF) screens. Other features are a fix to address invalid packet lengths, a change in naming convention of image files in order to use in script, the ability to save all ITPS plot images (from Windows or the Web) as GIF or PNG format, the ability to specify ymin and ymax on plots where previously only the desired range could be specified, Web interface capability to plot IDFs that contain out-oforder page and plot numbers, and a fix to change all default file names to show yyyydddhhmmss time stamps instead of hhmmssdddyyyy. A Web interface capability sorts files based on modification date (with newest one at top), and the statistics block can be displayed via a Web interface. Via the Web, users can graphically view the volume of telemetry data from each day contained in the ITPS archive in the Web digest. The ITPS could be also used in nonspace fields that need to plot data or trend data, including financial and banking systems, aviation and transportation systems, healthcare and educational systems, sales and marketing, and housing and construction.

Ritter, Sheila↗

NASA NTRS1982

A second-order Budkyo-type parameterization of landsurface hydrology

A simple, second order parameterization of the water fluxes at a land surface for use as the appropriate boundary condition in general circulation models of the global atmosphere was developed. The derived parameterization incorporates the high nonlinearities in the relationship between the near surface soil moisture and the evaporation, runoff and percolation fluxes. Based on the one dimensional statistical dynamic derivation of the annual water balance, it makes the transition to short term prediction of the moisture fluxes, through a Taylor expansion around the average annual soil moisture. A comparison of the suggested parameterization is made with other existing techniques and available measurements. A thermodynamic coupling is applied in order to obtain estimations of the surface ground temperature.

Andreou, S. A.↗

NASA NTRS1997

On the Use of Statistics in Design and the Implications for Deterministic Computer Experiments

Perhaps the most prevalent use of statistics in engineering design is through Taguchi's parameter and robust design -- using orthogonal arrays to compute signal-to-noise ratios in a process of design improvement. In our view, however, there is an equally exciting use of statistics in design that could become just as prevalent: it is the concept of metamodeling whereby statistical models are built to approximate detailed computer analysis codes. Although computers continue to get faster, analysis codes always seem to keep pace so that their computational time remains non-trivial. Through metamodeling, approximations of these codes are built that are orders of magnitude cheaper to run. These metamodels can then be linked to optimization routines for fast analysis, or they can serve as a bridge for integrating analysis codes across different domains. In this paper we first review metamodeling techniques that encompass design of experiments, response surface methodology, Taguchi methods, neural networks, inductive learning, and kriging. We discuss their existing applications in engineering design and then address the dangers of applying traditional statistical techniques to approximate deterministic computer analysis codes. We conclude with recommendations for the appropriate use of metamodeling techniques in given situations and how common pitfalls can be avoided.

Simpson, Timothy W.↗