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In-Depth Modeling and Simulation Analysis of Artemis Missions Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. During an extended simulation modeling phase, IMPACT generated analytical results for medical risks, and the medical resources and capabilities to address those risks, for every segment of every crewed Artemis mission. This presentation will highlight the reliability, consistency and validity of IMPACT’s computational modeling techniques and will showcase the library of analytical outcomes generated for the Artemis missions. OVERVIEW During the early stages of IMPACT’s design, architecture and technical requirements collection, “scenarios” (use cases) - achievement goals required for acceptance testing, were identified by stakeholders. IMPACT successfully completed the scenario testing requirements and undertook an extensive operational run phase utilizing a wide range of input combinations with a goal of delivering a cohesive, trustworthy, reliable, vast, and diverse body of evidence. The intent of these modeling runs was to validate consistency in output, ensure solidity of executable operations and to streamline processes by identifying areas requiring efficiency improvements. Using the many missions of Artemis, IMPACT ran variations of operational runs to assess the output for acceptable, as well as unusual characteristics. This rigorous long-term “shakedown” analysis was implemented to help build a collective body of evidence to aid in securing a high level of confidence, reliability, and validity in the output, whether from the applicational components of IMPACT, or the entirety of the operational process. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION This presentation will discuss the various categories of input criteria; the comparisons in the application of these input criteria to various Artemis missions; the preparation and collection of the body of evidence, and reliability of the computational modeling techniques. This paper serves as an initial analytical overview of IMPACT’s probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk outputs covering Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

Crew Composition↗

The revolution in data gathering systems

This paper gives a review of the data-acquisition systems used in NASA's wind tunnels from the 1950's to the present as a basis for assessing the impact of minicomputers and microcomputers on data acquisition and processing. The operation and disadvantages of wind-tunnel data systems are summarized for the period before 1950, the early 1950's, the early and late 1960's, and the early 1970's. Some significant advances discussed include the use or development of solid-state components, minicomputer systems, large central computers, on-line data processing, autoranging DC amplifiers, MOS-FET multiplexers, MSI and LSI logic, computer-controlled programmable amplifiers, solid-state remote multiplexing, integrated circuits, and microprocessors. The distributed system currently in use with the 40-ft by 80-ft wind tunnel at Ames Research Center is described in detail. The expected employment of distributed systems and microprocessors in the next decade is noted.

Cambra, J. M.↗

NASA CA Operations Devolution: Status Update

What is Devolution? Devolution is a spreading of CA (Conjunction Assessment) operations responsibilities to mission FOTs (Flight Operations Teams): Permits efficiencies in handling the increased workload caused by Space Fence and large constellations; Missions given more flexibility in choosing specific approach to CA requirements that resonates best with their particular needs; CARA (Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis) retains Agency oversight through an established NASA Standard - will establish requirements for devolved CA preparations, processing, and operations conduct. Devolution is a PROPOSED paradigm under consideration by SMD (Space Missions Directorate): Number of activities required before Agency-level decision can be rendered; Agency requirements established via approved CA Standard; Operational experience testimony from two separate pilot programs; After these activities complete, decision will be made whether devolution is a feasible option for missions; CARA is recommending devolution to exist as an option for missions.

conjunction↗

Artificial intelligence issues related to automated computing operations

Large data processing installations represent target systems for effective applications of artificial intelligence (AI) constructs. The system organization of a large data processing facility at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center is presented. The methodology and the issues which are related to AI application to automated operations within a large-scale computing facility are described. Problems to be addressed and initial goals are outlined.

Hornfeck, William A.↗

Geologic evidence of hotspot activity of Venus - Predictions for Magellan

A number of distinctive types of geologic features have been identified on Venus that are interpreted to be related to thermal plumes including domal rises, coronae, and major composite shield volcanoes. The basic characteristics of these features as well as their distribution are documented. The three types of features have related morphologies and are interpreted to represent a continuum of features formed by mantle plumes at scales from 100s to over 1000 km. The Artemis structure, located in Aphrodite Terra, is proposed to be a large corona. If crustal spreading processes are operating on Venus, hotspot features should form chains on the surface as seen in terrestrial ocean basins. On the basis of current data on hotspot-related feature distribution on Venus, no clear evidence exists for hotspot chains. The complete distribution of hotspot features in Magellan data will be used to understand better the relationship between interior processes and surface features, as well as to provide a test for the crustal spreading hypothesis.

Stofan, Ellen R.↗

Implementation of the Lifetime Method in Unsteady Pressure Sensitive Paint Measurements

At NASA Ames Research Center, unsteady pressure-sensitive paint (uPSP) measurements are obtained using the ‘intensity method’ which measures paint luminescence in response to a continuous, constant excitation. These measurements are obtained using high-speed cameras and are processed into fluctuating components of pressure. However, the nature of the intensity method also requires a separate steady state (time mean) pressure measurement to be obtained. This steady state measurement has typically been obtained using a separate set of PSP equipment that uses the ‘lifetime method’, which uses pulsed excitation to measure paint decay lifetime. If the lifetime method were implemented in the high-speed uPSP system, both the fluctuating and mean components of pressure could be obtained with a single system. This would greatly streamline setup, operations, and processing. In this paper, we describe work performed at the Fluid Mechanics Laboratory at NASA Ames to implement the lifetime method in our uPSP system. The uPSP acquisition system uses Phantom v2512 high-speed cameras, and it was initially uncertain if results of adequate quality could be obtained - their high framerate comes at the cost of several undesirable characteristics, which are explored in this paper. It was also uncertain if illumination using LED lamps, rather than a stronger source such as lasers, would be adequate. The data acquisition and data processing are discussed and the results analyzed. It was found that satisfactory lifetime method results can indeed be obtained using these high-speed cameras and LED lamps. This will allow the uPSP system to be greatly simplified and will have a large operational impact on how uPSP data is acquired in future wind tunnel tests.

Pressure Sensitive Paint↗

Implementation of the Lifetime Method in uPSP Measurements

At NASA Ames Research Center, unsteady pressure-sensitive paint (uPSP) measurements are obtained using the ‘intensity method’ which measures paint luminescence in response to a continuous, constant excitation. These measurements are obtained using high-speed cameras and are processed into fluctuating components of pressure. However, the nature of the intensity method also requires a separate steady state (time mean) pressure measurement to be obtained. This steady state measurement has typically been obtained using a separate set of PSP equipment that uses the ‘lifetime method’, which uses pulsed excitation to measure paint decay lifetime. If the lifetime method were implemented in the high-speed uPSP system, both the fluctuating and mean components of pressure could be obtained with a single system. This would greatly streamline setup, operations, and processing. In this paper, we describe work performed at the Fluid Mechanics Laboratory at NASA Ames to implement the lifetime method in our uPSP system. The uPSP acquisition system uses Phantom v2512 high-speed cameras, and it was initially uncertain if results of adequate quality could be obtained - their high framerate comes at the cost of several undesirable characteristics, which are explored in this paper. It was also uncertain if illumination using LED lamps, rather than a stronger source such as lasers, would be adequate. The data acquisition and data processing are discussed and the results analyzed. It was found that satisfactory lifetime method results can indeed be obtained using these high-speed cameras and LED lamps. This will allow the uPSP system to be greatly simplified and will have a large operational impact on how uPSP data is acquired in future wind tunnel tests.

Pressure Sensitive Paint↗

Viper Science Operations: Science Traverse Planning Perspectives, Processes, and Tools.

Introduction: The NASA Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) launchesin late 2024 towards a landing site on Mons Mouton in the Nobile region of the Lunar South Pole (LSP). As described in other LPSC presentations [1,2,3], the primary objective of the VIPER mission is to study the composition and distribution of hydrogen-bearing and other volatiles by way of a complementary suite of payloads that the rover will carry to the Moon: three “prospecting” instruments which operate continuously while roving - the Neutron Spectrometer System (NSS), the Near InfraRed Volatiles Spectrometer System (NIRVSS), and the Mass Spectrometer observing lunar operations (MSolo). A 1-meter auguring/percussive drill called the The Regolith and Ice Drill for Exploration of New Terrains (TRIDENT) is used to bring subsurface cuttings to the surface in 10-cm increments where they are interrogated by NIRVSS and MSolo. The Visible Imaging System is comprised of eight cameras (the NavCam stereo pair mounted on the mast gimbal, the AftCam stereo pair mounted on the aft panel, and four HazCams mounted in the wheel wells) that capture grayscale visible wavelength images of the lunar environment and the rover’s upper deck. The VIPER mobility system is a four-wheel design that includes the following motorized modules: Suspension, Steering, and Drive/Propulsion. Wheel odometry and applied torque — combined with position data from rover imagery — can be used to compute assessments of ‘slip and sinkage’. Slope estimates can be computed from stereo rover imagery, as well as pitch and roll data from the IMU (Inertial Measurement Unit) and Star Tracker telemetry.

Darlene Sze Shien Lim↗

Spacecraft methods and structures with enhanced attitude control that facilitates gyroscope substitutions

Methods and structures are provided that enhance attitude control during gyroscope substitutions by insuring that a spacecraft's attitude control system does not drive its absolute-attitude sensors out of their capture ranges. In a method embodiment, an operational process-noise covariance Q of a Kalman filter is temporarily replaced with a substantially greater interim process-noise covariance Q. This replacement increases the weight given to the most recent attitude measurements and hastens the reduction of attitude errors and gyroscope bias errors. The error effect of the substituted gyroscopes is reduced and the absolute-attitude sensors are not driven out of their capture range. In another method embodiment, this replacement is preceded by the temporary replacement of an operational measurement-noise variance R with a substantially larger interim measurement-noise variance R to reduce transients during the gyroscope substitutions.

Li, Rongsheng↗

A New Discrete Wavelength BUV Algorithm for Consistent Volcanic SO2 Retrievals from Multiple Satellite Missions

This paper describes a new discrete wavelength algorithm developed for retrieving volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) vertical column density (VCD) from UV observing satellites. The Multi-Satellite SO2 algorithm (MS_SO2) simultaneously retrieves column densities of sulfur dioxide, ozone, and Lambertian effective reflectivity (LER) and its spectral dependence. It is used operationally to process measurements from the heritage Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) onboard NASA's Nimbus-7 satellite (N7/TOMS: 1978-1993) and from the current Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) onboard Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR: 2015-) from the Earth-Sun Lagrange (L1) orbit. Results from MS_SO2 algorithm for several volcanic cases were assessed using the more sensitive principal component analysis (PCA) algorithm. The PCA is an operational algorithm used by NASA to retrieve SO2 from hyperspectral UV spectrometers, such as the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA's Earth Observing System Aura satellite and Ozone Mapping and Profiling Suite (OMPS) onboard NASA-NOAA Suomi National Polar Partnership (SNPP) satellite. For this comparative study, the PCA algorithm was modified to use the discrete wavelengths of the Nimbus-7/TOMS instrument, described in Sect. S1 of the Supplement. Our results demonstrate good agreement between the two retrievals for the largest volcanic eruptions of the satellite era, such as the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. To estimate SO2 retrieval systematic uncertainties, we use radiative transfer simulations explicitly accounting for volcanic sulfate and ash aerosols. Our results suggest that the discrete-wavelength MS_SO2 algorithm, although less sensitive than hyperspectral PCA algorithm, can be adapted to retrieve volcanic SO2 VCDs from contemporary hyperspectral UV instruments, such as OMI and OMPS, to create consistent, multi-satellite, long-term volcanic SO2 climate data records.

Bradford L Fisher↗

Melt spinning study

Containerless processing of materials provides an excellent opportunity to study nucleation phenomena and produce unique materials, primarily through the formation of metastable phases and deep undercoolings. Deep undercoolings can be readily achieved in falling drops of molten material. Extended solute solubilities and greatly refined microstructures can also be obtained in containerless processing experiments. The Drop Tube Facility at Marshall Space Flight Center has played an important role in enhancing that area of research. Previous experiments performed in the Drop Tube with refractory metals has shown very interesting microstructural changes associated with deep undercoolings. It is apparent also that the microstructure of the deep undercooled species may be changing due to the release of the latent heat of fusion during recalescence. For scientific purposes, it is important to be able to differentiate between the microstructures of the two types of metallic species. A review of the literature shows that although significant advances have been made with respect to the engineering aspects of rapid solidification phenomena, there is still much to be learned in terms of understanding the basic phenomena. The two major ways in which rapid solidification processing provides improved structures and hence improved properties are: (1) production of refined structures such as fine dendrites and eutectics, and (2) production of new alloy compositions, microstructures, and phases through extended solid solubility, new phase reaction sequences, and the formation of metallic-glass microstructures. The objective of this work has been to determine the optimal methodology required to extract this excess energy without affecting the thermo-physical parameters of the under-cooled melt. In normal containerless processing experiments recalescence occurs as the melt returns toward the melting point in order to solidify. A new type of experiment is sought in which the resultant microstructure of the undercooled species is frozen in without going through the melting point regime and subsequent near equilibrium solidification of the remaining liquid. This experimental approach entails the design of an appropriate melt spinning system which is compatible with Drop Tube operations and processing constraints. That work is the goal of this study.

Workman, Gary L.↗

The HEAO experience - design through operations

The design process and performance of the NASA High Energy Astronomy Observatories (HEAO-1, 2, and 3) are surveyed from the initiation of the program in 1968 through the end of HEAO-3 operation in May, 1981, with a focus on the attitude control and determination subsystem (ACDS). The science objectives, original and revised overall design concepts, final design for each spacecraft, and details of the ACDS designs are discussed, and the stages of the ACDS design process, including redefinition to achieve 50 percent cost reduction, detailed design of common and mission-unique hardware and software, unit qualification, subsystem integration, and observatory-level testing, are described. Overall and ACDS performance is evaluated for each mission and found to meet or exceed design requirements despite some difficulties arising from errors in startracker-ACDS-interface coordination and from gyroscope failures. These difficulties were resolved by using the flexibility of the software design. The implicationns of the HEAO experience for the design process of future spacecraft are suggested.

Hoffman, D. P.↗

Thematic Mapper research in the earth sciences

This paper's studies were initiated under the NASA program for the purpose of conducting the earth sciences research using the Landsat Thematic Mapper. The goals of the program include studies of the factors influencing the growth, health, condition, and distribution of vegetation on the earth; the processes controlling the evolution of the earth's crust; the earth's water budget and the hydrologic processes that operate at local, regional, and global scales; the physical and chemical interaction between different types of surficial materials; and the interaction between the earth's surface and its atmosphere. Twenty-seven domestic and five foreign investigations were initiated in 1985, with the results from most of them already published (one study was terminated due to the delay in the TDRSS). Twelve of the studies addressed hydrology, snow and ice, coastal processes, and near-shore oceanographic phenomena; seven addressed vegetation, soils, or animal habitat; and twelve addressed geologic subjects.

Salomonson, Vincent V.↗

Cirrus Simulations of CRYSTAL-FACE 23 July 2002 Case

A key objective of the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) is to understand relationships between the properties of tropical convective cloud systems and the properties and lifecycle of the extended cirrus anvils they produce. We report here on a case study of 23 July 2002 where a sequence of convective storms over central Florida produced an extensive anvil outflow. Our approach is to use a suitably-initialized cloud- system simulation with MM5 (Starr et al., companion paper in this volume) to define initial conditions and time-dependent forcing for a simulation of anvil evolution using a two-dimensional fine-resolution (100 m) cirrus cloud model that explicitly accounts for details of cirrus microphysical development (bin or spectra model) and fully interactive radiative processes. The cirrus model follows Lin (1997). The microphysical components are described in Lin et al. (2004) - see Lin et a1 (this volume). Meteorological conditions and observations for the 23 July case are described in Starr et al. (this volume). The goals of the present study are to evaluate how well we can simulate a cirrus anvil lifecycle, to evaluate the importance of various physical processes that operate within the anvil, and to evaluate the importance of environmental conditions in regulating anvil lifecycle. CRYSTAL-FACE produced a number of excellent case studies of anvil systems that will allow environmental factors, such as static stability or wind shear in the upper troposphere, to be examined. In the present study, we strive to assess the importance of propagating gravity waves, likely produced by the deep convection itself, and radiative processes, to anvil lifecycle and characteristics.

Starr, David↗

Cirrus Simulations of CRYSTAL-FACE 23 July 2002 Case

A key objective of the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) is to understand relationships between the properties of tropical convective cloud systems and the properties and lifecycle of the extended cirrus anvils they produce. We report here on a case study of 23 July 2002 where a sequence of convective storms over central Florida produced an extensive anvil outflow. Our approach is to use a suitably-initialized cloud-system simulation with MM5 to define initial conditions and time-dependent forcing for a simulation of anvil evolution using a two-dimensional fine-resolution (100 m) cirrus cloud model that explicitly accounts for details of cirrus microphysical development (bin or spectra model) and fully interactive radiative processes. The cirrus model follows Lin. Meteorological conditions and observations for the 23 July case are described in this volume. The goals of the present study are to evaluate how well we can simulate a cirrus anvil lifecycle, to evaluate the importance of various physical processes that operate within the anvil, and to evaluate the importance of environmental conditions in regulating anvil lifecycle. CRYSTAL-FACE produced a number of excellent case studies of anvil systems that will allow environmental factors, such as static stability or wind shear in the upper troposphere, to be examined. In the present study, we strive to assess the importance of propagating gravity waves, likely produced by the deep convection itself, and radiative processes, to anvil lifecycle and characteristics.

Starr, David↗

Laser-Based Relative Navigation and Guidance for Space Shuttle Proximity Operations

American manned spacecraft have used visual piloting techniques in the terminal phase of randezvous during the Gemini, Apollo, Skylab, and Space Shuttle programs. In the last several years, space- shuttle astronauts have used the Rendezvous and Proximity Operations Program (RPOP), running; on a laptop computer, as a guidance and navigation aid during proximity operations. By processing measurements to the target satellite taken by a laser sensor, RPOP provides the shuttle crew with a more accurate relative position and velocity than from any other source. The inclusion of guidance algorithms allows RPOP to determine delta-velocities to fly very efficient, repeatable trajectories. This paper will focus on the guidance and navigation algorithms in RPOP, as well as results from simulation and flight. Although developed for shuttle proximity operations, the RPOP algorithms have potential applicability to an automated vehicle.

Laser sensors↗

Digital image data sets for remote sensing instruction

Several sets of LANDSAT image segments and a set of simple image processing programs operating in batch mode are being used to teach an introductory course in digital image analysis and classification. The image data sets contain only a small number of pixels and can be run quickly on most university computing systems. A number of image data sets derived from the raw spectral bands (smoothed data sets, band ratios and texture data sets) allows the student to examine and include these extracted variables in the classification process. Another data set consists of three registered LANDSAT image segments for three different dates so that the student may experiment with multitemporal data processing. The three LANDSAT scenes used in the class are described and the image data sets available for class exercises are listed.

Eyton, J. R.↗

Polymer-Oxygen Compatibility Testing: Effect of Oxygen Aging on Ignition and Combustion Properties

The oxygen compatibility of six polymers used in oxygen service was evaluated after exposure for 48 hours to oxygen pressures ranging from 350 to 6200 kPa (50 to 900 psia), and temperatures ranging from 50 to 250 C (122 to 302 F). Three elastomers were tested: CR rubber (C873-70), FKM fluorocarbon rubber (Viton A), and MPQ silicone rubber (MIL-ZZ-765, Class 2); and three thermoplastics were tested: polyhexamethylene adipamide (Zytel 42), polytetrafluoroethylene (Teflon TFE), and polychlorotrifluoroethylene (Neoflon CTFE M400H). Post-aging changes in mass, dimensions, tensile strength, elongation at break, and durometer hardness were determined. Also, the compression set was determined for the three elastomers. Results show that the properties under investigation were more sensitive to oxygen pressure at low to moderate temperatures, and more sensitive to temperature at low to moderate oxygen pressures. Inspection of the results also suggested that both chain scissioning and cross-linking processes were operative, consistent with heterogeneous oxidation. Attempts are underway to verify conclusively the occurrence of heterogeneous oxidation using a simple modulus profiling technique. Finally, the effect of aging at 620 kpa (90 psia) and 121 C (250 F) on ignition and combustion resistance was determined. As expected, aged polymers were less ignitable and combustible (had higher AlTs and lower heats of combustion). Special attention was given to Neoflon CTFE. More specifically, the effect of process history (compression versus extrusion molding) and percent crystallinity (quick- versus slow-quenched) on the AIT, heat of combustion, and impact sensitivity of Neoflon CTFE was investigated. Results show the AIT, heat of combustion, and impact sensitivity to be essentially independent of Neoflon CTFE process history and structure.

Waller, Jess M.↗