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NASA NTRS2017

Using Data Assimilation Methods for Prediction of Solar Activity

The variability of solar magnetic activity known as the 11-‐year solar cycles has the longest history of observations. These solar cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth’s space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-‐term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-‐term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of the solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Solar Activity↗

NASA NTRS1991

One-way nesting for a primitive equation ocean model

Prognostic numerical models for atmospheric and oceanic circulations require initial fields, boundary conditions, and forcing functions in addition to a consistent set of partial differential equations, including a state relation and equations expressing conservation of mass, momentum, and energy. Depending on the horizontal domain to be modeled, the horizontal boundary conditions are either physically obvious or extremely difficult to specify consistently. If the entire atmosphere is modeled, periodic horizontal boundary conditions are appropriate. On the other hand, the physical horizontal boundaries on the entire ocean are solid walls. Obviously, the normal velocity at a solid wall is zero while the specification of the tangential velocity depends on the mathematical treatment of the horizontal viscous terms. Limitations imposed by computer capacity and cost, as well as research interests, have led to the use of limited area models to study flows in the atmosphere and ocean. The limited area models do not have physical horizontal boundaries, merely numerical ones. Correctly determining these open boundary conditions for limited-area numerical models has both intrigued and frustrated numerical modelers for decades. One common approach is to use the closed or solid wall boundary conditions for a limited-area model. The argument given for this approach is that the boundary conditions affect flow near the walls but that none of these effects are propagated into the interior. Therefore, one chooses a big enough domain that the central region of interest is not corrupted by the boundary flow. Research in progress to model the North Atlantic circulation vividly illustrates the pitfalls of this approach. Two model runs are compared: (1) the southern boundary at 20S between latitudes 0 and 40W is artificially closed; and (2) the same boundary is specified as open with an inward transport of 15 Sv (determined from a global model with the same physics) uniformly spread across the boundary. A comparison of both runs is presented.

Blake, D. W.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Theoretical study of refraction effects on noise produced by turbulent jets

The transmission of acoustic disturbances from the interior of a jet into the ambient air is studied. The jet is assumed infinitely long with mean velocity profile independent of streamwise location. The noise generator is a sequence of transient sources drifting with the local fluid and confined to a short length of the jet. In Part 1, supersonic jets are considered. Numerical results for mean-square pressure versus angle in the far-field show unexpected peaks which are very sharp. Analysis of simplified models indicates that these are complex quasi-resonant effects which appear to the stationary observer in a high frequency range. The peaks are real for the idealized model, but would be smoothed by mathematical integration over source position, velocity, and frequency. Subsonic jets were considered in part 2, and a preliminary study of the near-field was attempted. Mean-square radial displacements (or mean radial energy flow or space-time correlations of radial pressure gradient) are first found for very simple cases. The most difficult case studied is a sequence of transient sources at the center of a uniform-velocity circular cylindrical jet. Here a numerical triple integration is required and seems feasible although only preliminary results for mean square radial displacement are now available. These preliminary results show disturbances decreasing with increasing radial distance, and with increasing distance upstream and downstream from the source. A trend towards greater downstream disturbances appears even in the near field.

Graham, E. W.↗

NASA NTRS1969

Dynamic characteristics of a variable-mass flexible missile: Dynamics of a two-stage variable-mass flexible rocket

The dynamic characteristics of two-stage slender elastic body were investigated. The first stage, containing a solid-fuel rocket, possesses variable mass while the second stage, envisioned as a flexible case, contains packaged instruments of constant mass. The mathematical formulation was in terms of vector equations of motion transformed by a variational principle into sets of scalar differential equations in terms of generalized coordinates. Solutions to the complete equations were obtained numerically by means of finite difference techniques. The problem has been programmed in the FORTRAN 4 language and solved on an IBM 360/50 computer. Results for limited cases are presented showing the nature of the solutions.

Meirovitch, L.↗

NASA NTRS1975

On sound transmission into a thin cylindrical shell under 'flight conditions'

A mathematical model for sound transmission into a thin cylindrical shell is used to study sound transmission under flight conditions, i.e., under conditions of external air flow past a pressurized cylinder at flight altitude. Numerical results for different incidence angles are presented for a typical narrow-bodied jet in cruising flight at 10,660 m with interior pressure at 2440 m. A comparison is made between no-flow sound transmission at standard conditions on the ground to sound transmission under flight conditions. It is shown that at M = 0, the cylinder transmission loss (TL) has dips at the cylinder ring frequency (fR) and the critical frequency (fc) for a flat panel of same material and thickness as shell. Between fR and fc, cylinder TL follows a mass-law behavior. Flow provides a modest increase in TL in the mass-law region, and strongly interacts with the cylinder resonances below fR.

Koval, L. R.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Large-area sheet task advanced dendritic web growth development

The computer code for calculating web temperature distribution was expanded to provide a graphics output in addition to numerical and punch card output. The new code was used to examine various modifications of the J419 configuration and, on the basis of the results, a new growth geometry was designed. Additionally, several mathematically defined temperature profiles were evaluated for the effects of the free boundary (growth front) on the thermal stress generation. Experimental growth runs were made with modified J419 configurations to complement the modeling work. A modified J435 configuration was evaluated.

Duncan, C. S.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Boundary-layer model of pattern formation in solidification

A model of pattern formation in crystal growth is proposed, and its analytic properties are investigated. The principal dynamical variables in this model are the curvature of the solidification front and the thickness (or heat content) of a thermal boundary layer, both taken to be functions of position along the interface. This model is mathematically much more tractable than the realistic, fully nonlocal version of the free-boundary problem, and still recaptures many of the features that seem essential for studying dendritic behavior, for example. Preliminary numerical solutions produce snowflakelike patterns similar to those seen in nature.

Ben-Jacob, E.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Table look-up estimation of signal and noise parameters from quantized observables

A table look-up algorithm for estimating underlying signal and noise parameters from quantized observables is examined. A general mathematical model is developed, and a look-up table designed specifically for estimating parameters from four-bit quantized data is described. Estimator performance is evaluated both analytically and by means of numerical simulation, and an example is provided to illustrate the use of the look-up table for estimating signal-to-noise ratios commonly encountered in Voyager-type data.

Vilnrotter, V. A.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Satellite attitude motion models for capture and retrieval investigations

The primary purpose of this research is to provide mathematical models which may be used in the investigation of various aspects of the remote capture and retrieval of uncontrolled satellites. Emphasis has been placed on analytical models; however, to verify analytical solutions, numerical integration must be used. Also, for satellites of certain types, numerical integration may be the only practical or perhaps the only possible method of solution. First, to provide a basis for analytical and numerical work, uncontrolled satellites were categorized using criteria based on: (1) orbital motions, (2) external angular momenta, (3) internal angular momenta, (4) physical characteristics, and (5) the stability of their equilibrium states. Several analytical solutions for the attitude motions of satellite models were compiled, checked, corrected in some minor respects and their short-term prediction capabilities were investigated. Single-rigid-body, dual-spin and multi-rotor configurations are treated. To verify the analytical models and to see how the true motion of a satellite which is acted upon by environmental torques differs from its corresponding torque-free motion, a numerical simulation code was developed. This code contains a relatively general satellite model and models for gravity-gradient and aerodynamic torques. The spacecraft physical model for the code and the equations of motion are given. The two environmental torque models are described.

Cochran, John E., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1990

On space-based SETI

Space-based antenna systems for the search of signals from extra-terrestrial intelligence are discussed. Independent studies of the ecliptic solar-sailing transfer problem from the geosynchronous departure orbit to Sun-Earth collinear transterrestrial liberation point were conducted. They were based on a relatively simple mathematical model describing attitude-controlled spacecraft motion in the ecliptic plane as governed by solar and terrestrial gravitational attraction together with the solar radiation pressure. The resulting equations of motion were integrated numerically for a relevant range of values of spacecraft area-to-mass ratio and for an appropriate spacecraft attitude-control law known to lead to Earth escape. Experimentation with varying initial conditions in the departure orbit, and with attitude-control law modification after having achieved Earth escape, established the feasibility of component deployment by means of solar sailing. Details are presented.

Stuiver, Willem↗

NASA NTRS1995

"Recognizing Numerical Constants"

The advent of inexpensive, high performance computer and new efficient algorithms have made possible the automatic recognition of numerically computed constants. In other words, techniques now exist for determining, within certain limits, whether a computed real or complex number can be written as a simple expression involving the classical constants of mathematics. In this presentation, some of the recently discovered techniques for constant recognition, notably integer relation detection algorithms, will be presented. As an application of these methods, the author's recent work in recognizing "Euler sums" will be described in some detail.

Bailey, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Early Estimation of Solar Activity Cycle: Potential Capability and Limits

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and longterm sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Using Data Assimilation Methods of Prediction of Solar Activity

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Prediction↗

NASA NTRS2018

Laser Tracker Utilization Methodology in Measuring Truth Trajectories for INS Testing on 6 Degree of Freedom Table at the Marshall Space Flight Center's Contact Dynamics Simulation Laboratory with Lessons Learned

When performing Inertial Navigation System (INS) testing at the Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) Contact Dynamics Simulation Laboratory (CDSL) early in 2017, a Leica Geosystems AT901 Laser Tracker system (LLT) measured the twist & sway trajectories as generated by the 6 Degree Of Freedom (6DOF) Table in the CDSL. These LLT measured trajectories were used in the INS software model validation effort. Several challenges were identified and overcome during the preparation for the INS testing, as well as numerous lessons learned. These challenges included determining the position and attitude of the LLT with respect to an INS-shared coordinate frame using surveyed monument locations in the CDSL and the accompanying mathematical transformation, accurately measuring the spatial relationship between the INS and a 6DOF tracking probe due to lack of INS visibility from the LLT location, obtaining the data from the LLT during a test, determining how to process the results for comparison with INS data in time and frequency domains, and using a sensitivity analysis of the results to verify the quality of the results. While many of these challenges were identified and overcome before or during testing, a significant lesson on test set-up was not learned until later in the data analysis process. It was found that a combination of trajectory-dependent gimbal locking and environmental noise introduced non-negligible noise in the angular measurements of the LLT that spanned the evaluated frequency spectrum. The lessons learned in this experiment may be useful for others performing INS testing in similar testing facilities.

Leggett, Jared O.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Robust integration schemes for generalized viscoplasticity with internal-state variables. Part 2: Algorithmic developments and implementation

This two-part report is concerned with the development of a general framework for the implicit time-stepping integrators for the flow and evolution equations in generalized viscoplastic models. The primary goal is to present a complete theoretical formulation, and to address in detail the algorithmic and numerical analysis aspects involved in its finite element implementation, as well as to critically assess the numerical performance of the developed schemes in a comprehensive set of test cases. On the theoretical side, the general framework is developed on the basis of the unconditionally-stable, backward-Euler difference scheme as a starting point. Its mathematical structure is of sufficient generality to allow a unified treatment of different classes of viscoplastic models with internal variables. In particular, two specific models of this type, which are representative of the present start-of-art in metal viscoplasticity, are considered in applications reported here; i.e., fully associative (GVIPS) and non-associative (NAV) models. The matrix forms developed for both these models are directly applicable for both initially isotropic and anisotropic materials, in general (three-dimensional) situations as well as subspace applications (i.e., plane stress/strain, axisymmetric, generalized plane stress in shells). On the computational side, issues related to efficiency and robustness are emphasized in developing the (local) interative algorithm. In particular, closed-form expressions for residual vectors and (consistent) material tangent stiffness arrays are given explicitly for both GVIPS and NAV models, with their maximum sizes 'optimized' to depend only on the number of independent stress components (but independent of the number of viscoplastic internal state parameters). Significant robustness of the local iterative solution is provided by complementing the basic Newton-Raphson scheme with a line-search strategy for convergence. In the present second part of the report, we focus on the specific details of the numerical schemes, and associated computer algorithms, for the finite-element implementation of GVIPS and NAV models.

Li, Wei↗

NASA NTRS1995

Robust integration schemes for generalized viscoplasticity with internal-state variables. Part 1: Theoretical developments and applications

This two-part report is concerned with the development of a general framework for the implicit time-stepping integrators for the flow and evolution equations in generalized viscoplastic models. The primary goal is to present a complete theoretical formulation, and to address in detail the algorithmic and numerical analysis aspects involved in its finite element implementation, as well as to critically assess the numerical performance of the developed schemes in a comprehensive set of test cases. On the theoretical side, the general framework is developed on the basis of the unconditionally-stable, backward-Euler difference scheme as a starting point. Its mathematical structure is of sufficient generality to allow a unified treatment of different classes of viscoplastic models with internal variables. In particular, two specific models of this type, which are representative of the present start-of-art in metal viscoplasticity, are considered in applications reported here; i.e., fully associative (GVIPS) and non-associative (NAV) models. The matrix forms developed for both these models are directly applicable for both initially isotropic and anisotropic materials, in general (three-dimensional) situations as well as subspace applications (i.e., plane stress/strain, axisymmetric, generalized plane stress in shells). On the computational side, issues related to efficiency and robustness are emphasized in developing the (local) interative algorithm. In particular, closed-form expressions for residual vectors and (consistent) material tangent stiffness arrays are given explicitly for both GVIPS and NAV models, with their maximum sizes 'optimized' to depend only on the number of independent stress components (but independent of the number of viscoplastic internal state parameters). Significant robustness of the local iterative solution is provided by complementing the basic Newton-Raphson scheme with a line-search strategy for convergence. In the present first part of the report, we focus on the theoretical developments, and discussions of the results of numerical-performance studies using the integration schemes for GVIPS and NAV models.

Saleeb, Atef F.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Plate motion and the secular shift of the mean pole

The global plate motion indicates that changes in the products of inertia of the earth due to tectonic plate movement may provide a secular shift of the mean pole. A mathematical procedure for calculating this shift based on the plate theory is presented. Explicit expressions were obtained for the dependence of the secular polar shift on the dimensions and locations of the plate boundaries. Numerical results show that the secular motion of the mean pole is 0.0002 sec/year in the direction of 67 W. Hence, it is deduced that the influence of the plate motion on the secular polar shift may account for 10% of the observed value.

Liu, H.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Analysis of the interaction of a weak normal shock wave with a turbulent boundary layer

The method of matched asymptotic expansions is used to analyze the interaction of a normal shock wave with an unseparated turbulent boundary layer on a flat surface at transonic speeds. The theory leads to a three-layer description of the interaction in the double limit of Reynolds number approaching infinity and Mach number approaching unity. The interaction involves an outer, inviscid rotational layer, a constant shear-stress wall layer, and a blending region between them. The pressure distribution is obtained from a numerical solution of the outer-layer equations by a mixed-flow relaxation procedure. An analytic solution for the skin friction is determined from the inner-layer equations. The significance of the mathematical model is discussed with reference to existing experimental data.

Melnik, R. E.↗