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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Methods development towards automated, physics-informed, quantitative quality control of TRISO-SiC

Tristructural-isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles have been developed as a high-performance fuel for use in high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) systems due to their high efficiency and stability under both normal and off-normal conditions. Broader deployment of this technology in advanced nuclear applications may benefit from quantitative quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) methods that directly link TRISO properties to downstream performance. A key TRISO property is the SiC layer microstructure, which influences fission product retention during irradiation. However, existing QA/QC for the TRISO-SiC microstructure comprises only a qualitative visual inspection; therefore, there is a clear opportunity for the development of quantitative methods for TRISO QA/QC. Here, to this end, previous work has demonstrated an image processing approach to grain boundary (GB) identification and subsequent extraction of microstructural metrics; however, extensive twinning within the SiC layer complicates such analyses because twin GBs significantly influence microstructural metrics but are not expected to contribute to fission product transport. This study presents the initial development, training, and testing of an ML-based image segmentation algorithm designed to identify and remove twin GBs from standard backscattered electron micrographs, providing an industrially applicable, quantitative, and physically meaningful QA/QC approach for the TRISO-SiC microstructure. Although pixel-wise performance metrics for the twin predictions are low, the change in grain area and the number of GB pixels after twin removal predicted by the ML workflow are within 1% of the true values calculated using crystallographic data. This suggests that the model is well capable of predicting overall twin boundary structures and grain morphology, and continued advancement of this approach could enable automated, scalable, and physics-informed QA/QC for TRISO-SiC microstructures, supporting the reliable qualification of coated particle fuels for next-generation reactor systems.

Computer vision↗
DOE OSTI2025

A quantitative risk assessment framework for fault reactivation in underground hydrogen storage: Coupled simulation and deep learning approach

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is emerging as a critical solution for large-scale energy storage. However, like all subsurface fluid injection activities, UHS poses the risk of injection-induced fault reactivation. Accurate risk assessment is essential to ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS operations. This study presents the development of deep-learning surrogate models for fault reactivation prediction in UHS, trained on a comprehensive database of fully coupled fluid flow-geomechanics simulations. Our findings reveal that analytical models often yield unreliable estimates, with errors up to 54% in the allowable injection pressure, potentially leading to a 40% reduction in UHS operational capacity. The developed surrogate models were incorporated into a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework, enabling probabilistic evaluation of fault reactivation risk while accounting for uncertainties in the input variables. Site-specific features, such as horizontal stress gradients, fault’s dip and strike angles, and operational parameters like bottom-hole injection pressure and well-fault distance, were identified as the primary drivers of fault reactivation across various stress regimes. Whereas other hydraulic, geological, and poroelastic reservoir properties were found to have a secondary impact. Notably, we observed that the risk of fault reactivation for a critically oriented fault with a static friction coefficient greater than 0.55 remains below 10% in a normal faulting stress regime. However, the risk significantly increases as the stress regime transitions from normal to strike-slip and ultimately to reverse faulting conditions. These findings underscore the importance of rigorous site characterization and comprehensive QRA evaluations to optimize UHS performance and minimize geomechanical risks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Graph neural networks for mechanical property prediction of 2D fiber composites

This work investigates the ability of graph neural networks (GNNs) to homogenize 2D fiber composite microstructures. We use different inhomogeneity and anisotropy indices to motivate and show that the Volume Elements (VEs) used in ML methods should ideally be far from their Representative Volume Element (RVE) size limit and, consequently, are notably anisotropic. Hence, training only the isotropic limit properties may not be acceptable. Another aspect is the need to normalize elastic stiffness values for ML, especially when high elastic contrast ratios are encountered between composite phases or in the material set. We introduce a normalization technique based on the mean-field method (MFM) to handle such high contrast ratios and train for the entire stiffness tensor. We show that the proposed GNN approaches exhibit high accuracy and efficiency compared to traditional methods and convolutional neural networks, utilizing unstructured graphs constructed from microstructure topology. Our model successfully predicts the stiffness tensor, peak strength under bulk damage, and brittle fracture initiation strength across diverse microstructure configurations while maintaining high accuracy even for extreme material contrasts and volume fractions. We also present a method to improve prediction accuracy for small dataset sizes using Voronoi partitioning.

Brittle strength↗
DOE OSTI2022

Elevated temperature contact creep and friction of nickel-based superalloys using machine learning assisted finite element analysis

Nickel-based superalloys with superior thermochemical, mechanical, and tribological properties are highly utilized for critical components in several high temperature applications such as gas turbines and nuclear reactors. Inconel 617, in particular, is considered as one of the main candidate superalloys for tribo-components in very-high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors. Recent findings indicate that this alloy grows unique surface oxide especially in a high-temperature helium environment with distinctive wear, friction, and contact properties. Here, this study investigates the high temperature contact area evolution and frictional behavior of Inconel 617 using finite element simulation and provides predictive models for the contact and friction performance at different normal loads, dwell times, and temperatures. High temperature helium-aged Inconel 617 top surface properties (up to 600 °C) are utilized along with a single asperity-based deformable elastic-plastic contact model under combined normal and tangential loading. Machine learning is used to assist the finite element results and to predict friction coefficient as well as contact area evolution. While a small difference is observed in the instantaneous friction coefficient (no dwell time) for all temperatures, friction coefficient increases considerably with dwell time. This shows that the effect of contact creep for longer dwell times significantly dominants the effect of high temperature variation in basic mechanical parameters such as modulus and yield strength. It is found that increasing temperature and dwell times lead to the friction coefficient increase, yet the dominance of dwell time effects decreases at higher temperatures and loads. While the analysis is presented for Inconel 617, the methodology is easy to be generalized and can be applied to other HT alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermoresponsive antifouling ultrafiltration membranes from mesophase templating

Nanostructured polymers synthesized by lyotropic liquid crystal (LLC) templates with normal hexagonal (H 1 ) structure exhibit a 3D-continuous transport path, which makes them ideal for membrane separation application. Incorporating additional functionality, especially stimuli-responsiveness, in such an ordered structure provides even more application opportunities. Here, in this work, we present the first successful synthesis of H 1 -structured thermoresponsive ultrafiltration (UF) membranes via LLC templating. The membrane contains thermoresponsive Pluronic P84 diacrylate (P84DA) which not only acts as the monomer and structure-directing amphiphile, but also enables the pore size change with temperature. Experimental studies reveal that the swelling capacity of H 1 -templated polymer as well as permeability and selectivity of the obtained membrane can be altered by changing the temperature. Increasing the temperature from 25 to 45 °C increases the normalized flux from 28 to 68 L m -2 h -1 μm and molecular weight cut-off (MWCO) from 2200 to 3900 Da. Furthermore, the membrane shows an outstanding fouling resistance against different solutes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Superior long-term cycling of high-voltage lithium-ion batteries enabled by single-solvent electrolyte

A new single-solvent electrolyte system comprising lithium bis(fluorosuflonyl) imide (LiFSI) and beta-fluorinated sulfone (TFPMS) was designed to enable very stable long-term cycling of high-voltage lithium-ion batteries. Compared to other fluorinated solvents such as alpha-fluorinated sulfone (FMES) and fluorinated carbonate (FEMC), which are prone to reduction on the graphite anode, the LiFSI-TFPMS system displayed outstanding compatibility with graphite. While regular carbonate and sulfone from the LiFSI electrolyte system are compatible with the graphite anode, their high solvating power not only induces severe corrosion on the aluminum cathode current collector at high voltage, but also renders a low aggregation level at a normal salt concentration (about 1.0 M), resulting in the formation of an unstable solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI) on the graphite anode. Owing to the low solvating power of TFPMS, the aggregation level of the LiFSI-TFPMS system is relatively high even at normal salt concentration, which not only facilitates the formation of a robust SEI by the sacrificial decomposition of LiFSI, but also suppresses the aluminum corrosion of the LiFSI electrolyte system at high voltage. Together with the high intrinsic anodic stability of TFPMS, the superior cycling performance of graphite parallel to LiNi 0.6 Co 0.2 Mn 0.2 O 2 cells was achieved by employing the non-flammable LiFSI-TFPMS single-solvent electrolyte system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inhibit the strain accumulation for 5V spinel cathode by mitigating the phase separation during high voltage stage

LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 (LNMO) spinel cathode is a potential cathode material for high-power, low-cost lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) due to its low raw material cost, high operating voltage and efficient lithium-ion transport channel. However, LNMO suffers from structural stability due to the two-phase-transformation during charge/discharge process, leading to poor cycling performance. Here, to address the issues, we have constructed a homogeneous aggregated LNMO cathode with a multifaceted primary particle, namely the LNMO with single-crystal secondary particles (SSP LNMO). Ex situ and in situ characterizations including the synchrotron X-ray diffraction, the neutron diffraction and full pouch cell validated that the SSP LNMO exhibit a single solid-solution reactions with a restrained lattice evolution during the delithiation/lithiation process. This is in contrast to the normal LNMO cathode, which demonstrates a significant two-phase transition from spinel Li 1-x Ni 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 to rock-salt MnO 2 at high voltage. Therefore, the SSP LNMO has greatly improved cycle life compared to the normal LNMO cathode. Overall, this study demonstrates the possibility of constructing LNMO based on primary-grain morphology modulation to improve the intrinsic stability of LIBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Absolute Branching Ratios of Prominent $γ$ Rays Following $α$ Decay of 233 U

The absolute $γ$-ray branching ratios (emission probabilities) for 19 prominent peaks in the $α$ decay of 233 U are reported with energies ranging from 97 to 366 keV. The branching ratios were obtained from $α-γ$ coincidence measurements, normalized to the $α$ singles. The high-purity 233 U material (> 99.98%) was separated from its decay products before preparation of a 4.74-mg/cm 2 uranyl nitrate foil with a 6-mm diameter. Furthermore, this is the first report on the absolute normalization of the branching ratios since 1984 and it is the only measure by $α-γ$ coincidences, where the $α-γ/α$ ratio removes several potential systematic biases. Overall, the results are consistent with the adopted literature, and they validate the quantities most relevant to the non-destructive assay of fissile 233 U material, which is relevant to the thorium fuel cycle and associated safeguards.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of ceria as a surrogate material for UO 2 in experiments on fuel cracking driven by resistive heating

A variety of normal operation and accident scenarios can generate thermal stresses large enough to cause cracking in light-water reactor (LWR) fuel pellets. Cracking of fuel pellets can lead to reduced heat removal, larger centerline temperatures, and localized stress in cladding all of which impact fuel performance. Furthermore, pellet cracking also contributes to a temperature reduction in the pellet since the pellet fragments tend to move towards the heat sink (cladding), and the heat flow remains predominantly radial despite the presence of cracks. It is important to understand the temperature profile on the pellet before and after cracking to improve cracking models in fuel performance codes However, in-reactor observation and measurement of cracking is very challenging owing to the harsh environment and design of fuel rods. Recently, an experimental pellet cracking test stand was developed for separate effects testing of normal operations and accident temperature conditions, using thermal imaging to capture the pellet surface temperature for evaluation of thermal stresses and optical imaging to capture the evolution of cracking in real time. Cracking experiments were initially performed using ceria (CeO 2 ) as a surrogate fuel material, which is useful for developing and demonstrating the experimental approaches but is also valuable in its own right for cracking model development and validation. A combination of induction and resistance heating was used for volumetric heat generation in the pellet creating a thermal gradient. The material properties of CeO 2 and UO 2 are reviewed and compared for use in model development. Simulations of the experiment were performed to evaluate the behavior of the surrogate (CeO 2 ) fuel in BISON. The measured temperature profiles from BISON models match reasonably well with the observed experiments for the ceria pellets before cracking. The findings from this work will help improve confidence in fracture models used for fuel pellets under similar in-reactor conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation of a TRISO MiniFuel irradiation experiment with data-informed uncertainty quantification

An irradiation experiment using tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles and the miniature fuel (MiniFuel) irradiation vehicle was performed in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) to support development of the Kairos Power fluoride salt–cooled, high-temperature reactor (KP-FHR). Here, this paper describes modeling predictions of temperatures and fuel burnup for the as-built experiment. An uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis was performed to determine the effect of TRISO particle volume and position on the temperature predictions at various fuel heat generation rates (HGRs). This UQ study utilized fuel kernel position and volume measurements previously collected using X-ray computed tomography (XCT) techniques and Monte Carlo sampling methods to generate fuel compact cases that were then analyzed using a finite element thermal model. The UQ analysis indicated that uncertainty in calculated temperatures caused by varying TRISO particle arrangement is relatively small, even at high fuel HGR. Final predictions of particle temperatures throughout the irradiation are shown to be relevant to KP-FHR normal and off-normal operating conditions and to previous TRISO irradiation experiments. The combination of XCT with UQ analyses will inform post-irradiation examination (PIE) of the irradiated fuel compacts, and these analyses can be used to develop fuel performance models for coated particle fuel forms. Both PIE of separate-effects irradiation data and enhanced fuel performance modeling support accelerated qualification of TRISO fuels for a broad range of advanced reactor applications. The novel approach demonstrated here of measuring TRISO particle configurations with XCT methods and generating representative fuel compacts for finite element modeling and UQ analysis could be leveraged by the broader particle fuel community in the development of other TRISO fuel experiments in which these variables may have a significant impact on key outcomes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validation study of sodium pool fire modeling efforts in $\mathrm{MELCOR}$ and $\mathrm{SPHINCS}$ codes

Discharge of sodium coolant into containment from a sodium-cooled fast reactor vessel can occur in the event of a pipe leak or break. In this situation, some of the liquid sodium droplets discharged from the coolant system will react with oxygen in the air before reaching the containment. This phase of the event is normally termed the sodium spray fire phase. Unreacted sodium droplets pool on the containment floor where continued reaction with containment atmospheric oxygen occurs. This phase of the event is normally termed the sodium pool fire phase. Both phases of these sodium-oxygen reactions (or fires) are important to model because of the heat addition and aerosol generation that occur. Any fission products trapped in the sodium coolant may also be released during this progression of events, which if released from containment could pose a health risk to workers and the public. The paper describes progress of an international collaborative research in the area of the sodium fire modeling in the sodium-cooled fast reactors between the United States and Japan under the framework of the Civil Nuclear Energy Research and Development Working Group. In this collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories and Japan Atomic Energy Agency, the validation basis for and modeling capabilities of sodium spray and pool fires in MELCOR of Sandia National Laboratories and SPHINCS of Japan Atomic Energy Agency are being enhanced. Here this study documents MELCOR and SPHINCS sodium pool fire model validation exercises against the JAEA’s sodium pool fire experiments, F7-1 and F7-2. The proposed enhancement of the sodium pool fire models in MELCOR through addition of thermal hydraulic and sodium spreading models that enable a better representation of experimental results is also described.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal mechanical assessment of a SiC-SiC-composite clad fuel pin concept in a light water reactor environment

Accident Tolerant Fuels (ATFs) are designed to increase coping time following an accident scenario while preserving or improving current steady state reactor operational performance. A potential ATF concept is SiC-SiC composite claddings. Fuel performance simulations were conducted on a SiC-SiC based cladding concept utilizing a multilayered approach for improved performance. This cladding concept referred to as the Duplex concept is a duplex structure composed of a monolithic SiC layer placed on the outside of a SiC-SiC composite. A liquid metal is added to fuel-cladding gap for improved heat dissipation from the fuel. The monolithic SiC layer is used to improve the coolant corrosion characteristics and protect the SiC-SiC composite layer from exposure to the coolant. The fuel performance code BISON was used to conduct fuel performance simulations on the cladding concepts. Comparisons are made with a current prototypic fuel rod design (UO 2 fuel enclosed in Zircaloy-4 cladding). Representative steady-state cases were considered for normal power and two cycle power histories. Additionally, a PCI ramp case was simulated to analyze potential anticipated operational occurrences. Transient response during a Loss of Coolant Accident and a Reactivity Initiated Accident were also simulated. This computational study demonstrated that for normal operating conditions, the SiC concept cladding performed as well as the baseline for the standard power cases evaluated. The ramping evaluations indicate potential fracturing of the SiC-SiC composite of the composite cladding compared to the Zircaloy-4 cladding due to the temperature gradient and the subsequent differential thermal conductivity degradation and swelling across the composite thickness. In conclusion, the rod fails early at low enthalpy for RIA but survives a LOCA with minimal material loss due to high temperature steam corrosion.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Results of the AGR-5/6/7 UCO TRISO fuel irradiation test in the Advanced Test Reactor

AGR-5/6/7 was the last in a series of irradiation experiments sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy in support of the development and qualification of TRISO coated particle fuel for use in a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor. This experiment was conducted to verify the performance of the reference-design TRISO-coated low-enriched UCO fuel for modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor normal operating conditions and to explore fuel performance at temperatures substantially beyond those typical of normal operation. A total of 194 UCO fuel compacts in five capsules were irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor for 360.9 effective full-power days, achieving final burnup ranging from 5.66% to 15.26% fissions per initial heavy metal atom and fast neutron fluence ranging from 1.62 × 10 25 to 5.55 × 10 25 n/m 2 (E > 0.18 MeV). Calculated time-averaged fuel temperatures ranged from 467 °C to 1432 °C, with a peak fuel temperature of 1536 °C. During the first five irradiation cycles (∼180 effective full-power days), 85m Kr fission gas release-rate-to-birth-rate ratios were 10 −7 –10 −6 , indicating no particle failures. Near the end of the sixth cycle, a substantial number of in-pile particle failures occurred in Capsule 1. The fission gas release from this capsule impacted the readings from the other four capsules and led to unreliable fission gas release measurements for all capsules during the last four cycles. A preliminary post-irradiation examination of Capsule 1 fuel and internal components revealed the in-pile particle failures resulted from operational issues with the capsule, not subpar performance of the fuel particles.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Development of a Generalized Riser Flow Regime Map Based Upon Higher Moment and Chaotic Statistics Using Electrical Capacitance Volume Tomography (ECVT)

Dynamic analyses have been applied to the temporal signals from an Electro Capacitance Volume Tomography instrument located near mid-height on the riser of an industrial-scale cold-flow circulating fluidized bed to characterize gas-solids flow behavior in the riser. Twelve capacitance electrodes surround the cylindrical riser over a height of 1.3 m. The instrument used a neural network deconvolution algorithm to determine the spatially resolved solids fraction recorded at 52 Hz. Experiments were carried out over a range of gas and solids flows in the transport regime using a Geldart Group B bed material, high density polyethylene with mean particle size of 880 μm. The radial solids distribution was found to vary from one-time step to the next between profiles typical of laminar and turbulent flow. The duration of time spent in each of these flow profiles depended upon the operating regime – dilute, core-annular, or fast fluidized bed. The chaotic structure of the temporal data was characterized using the three conventional approaches: the first 4 moments from the distribution of signal in time, system memory parameters from the autocorrelation function and the Hurst exponent, and analysis of the correlationentropy and correlation dimension of the attractor. These signal analysis techniques were used to clearly distinguish differences between different transport operating regimes. Specifically, it was experimentally observed that a riser transitions from core annular flow profile to dilute and dense regimes via increasing the frequency of short term transients to either dilute or dense flow profiles, respectively. A regime map was generated based upon these dynamics using solids flux and gas velocity axes. Fast fluidized, core annular, and dilute each exhibited different degree of dynamic characteristics typical of fluid dominated or particle compromising behavior. It should be noted that the magnitude for the different statistics was in the same range regardless of the regime, it was the radial profile for the statistic that changed and subsequently identified that there was a change in the regime. Finally, a reduced regime map was developed consisting of plotting the gas velocity normalized by the upper transport velocity versus the solids flux normalized by the saturation carrying capacity. The use of this reduced plot allowed the data from widely different conditions to be plotted and compared on the same<p>graph. Note that in many instances, some of the statistics identified the operating point as being in one regime while others indicated that it was in another indicating a transition region between dilute or core annular regimes and between the core annular and fast fluidization regimes. This now provides a tool that can be used to optimize process performance, identify changes in operating states, or replicate process dynamics during process scaling or changing operating parameters. </p>

Breault, Ronald↗
DOE OSTI2022

Frictional Contacts Between Individual Woody Biomass Particles under Wet and Dry Conditions

Friction between wood particles can be a critical property when designing processing equipment for creating cellulosic biofuels and similar natural products. Also, as wood processing is likely to occur year-round, understanding the friction between wet as well as dry wood particles can help design and model equipment, such as screw feeders. Here, a tribo-rheometry method was developed using a commercial rheometer that measured the torque required to rotate two contacting millimeter-scale wood chip particles. First, a range of normal forces were used to find the limits of the experimental method. Torque values were measured for seven pairs of wood chip particles at 1 N normal force under both dry and wet conditions, at both ambient conditions and in a humidity-controlled chamber. The torque required to rotate the wet particles was consistently higher than that of the dry particles, although differences were not quite statistically significant when measurements were performed at ambient conditions. Using humidity control resulted in torque values for wet particles of 1900 uNm and 900 uNm for dry particles. Finally, the friction coefficient was calculated as 0.23 for wet particles and 0.11 for dry particles when humidity was controlled. These frictions coefficients agreed with values for wood reported in the literature. Overall, controlling humidity is strongly recommended to quantify the range of friction for particles that uptake water, including granular systems from biomass to food to powders.

biomass↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of dilution and pressure on combustion characteristics within externally heated micro-tubes

Here this study investigates the impact of pressure and dilution on combustion behavior of of C 2H6/air/N2 mixtures within an externally heated micro-tube using both experimental and analytical techniques. Experiments are conducted for pressures up to 10 bar at multiple dilution levels and document three flame regimes, i.e. weak flames, FREI and normal flames. Characteristic temperatures for flame stabilization, as well as and ignition and extinction are obtained by applying a novel thin filament pyrometry method (TFP), which uses a thin silicon carbide (SiC) filament that enables temperature measurements for both reacting and non-reacting cases. Results show a decrease of characteristic temperatures with increasing pressure, which can be which can be partially compensated by a decrease of O2 content. Further, regime transitions occur at lower velocity as the pressure increases, whereas weak flame positions are insensitive to dilution at a given pressure. Predictions from the analytical model compare favorably with experimental results. The most prominent finding is that as dilution increases, the transition from weak flame to FREI becomes less abrupt and is completely lost for high dilution levels (i.e. low O2 content). Both experimental and analytical results indicate that the unstable FREI combustion regime does not exist at high dilution levels, i.e. weak flame and normal flame regimes are no longer clearly separated. As FREI are interpreted as a cyclic transition from an ignition zone to a propagating flame, results for highly diluted conditions are interpreted as a combustion regime where classical flame propagation ceases to exist.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Oil price states and drivers: An analysis of the second-month spot-futures price differential

Oil remains a dominant component of global energy use, and its price, characterized by frequent changes and an ever-present potential for large swings, continues to be a focus of industry participants, policymakers and analysts attention. Here, this study examines the behavior of future spot oil prices using a continuous-time hidden Markov model (HMM) and daily price data spanning years 2007 to 2024. We identify six states in the second-month WTI spot-futures price differential and assess the roles of eleven futures price, quantity, financial market, and geopolitical/volatility variables in each state. The model yields several insights into the workings of the oil market and the relative roles of these drivers. We find support for several theoretical and empirical findings in the oil market literature, including the role of inventory, volatility/risk, and market responses to contango/backwardation in futures markets. A novel finding is that “normal contango” conditions represent a significant portion of next-day states in our in-sample data. Under the most volatile normal contango state, many of the oil market drivers differ markedly in coefficient signs and magnitudes from those in other states. The resulting model also performed well out-of-sample and would, in addition to understanding the impact of market drivers, be useful for short-term forecasting. Overall, the findings highlight the highly non-linear, regime-dependent interactions of the oil price and its drivers, emphasizing the importance of detailed information to market stakeholders.

Oladosu, Gbadebo A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigating the impact of a multi-module operation environment on the task performance time of human operators – An explanatory study

The worldwide demand for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) has surged in recent years due to their enhanced safety and versatility in supporting diverse industrial sectors. A unique feature of SMR operation is that a single human operator is responsible for managing multiple modules. Therefore, securing a sufficient amount of human performance data pertaining to this new environment is essential for the safe operation of SMRs. In this explanatory study, a series of experiments were conducted using the NuScale simulator, a representative SMR design, with student operators. A total of 12 student operators were assigned two types of off-normal events and asked to cope with them using paper-based procedures. Subsequently, their task performance times were compared with those of student operators responsible for a single unit based on the Task Complexity (TACOM) measure. Results indicate that the performance of student operators under the experimental conditions of this study degraded by a factor of 2 to 3, depending on the characteristics of the off-normal events.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗