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At least 631 records · Page 35

Applying Waveform Correlation to Mining Blasts Using a Global Sparse Network

Agencies that monitor for underground nuclear tests are interested in techniques that automatically characterize mining blasts to reduce the human analyst effort required to produce high-quality event bulletins. Waveform correlation is effective in finding similar waveforms from repeating seismic events, including mining blasts. We report the results of an experiment that uses waveform templates recorded by multiple International Monitoring System stations of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty for up to 10 years prior to detect and identify mining blasts that occur during single weeks of study. We discuss approaches for template selection, threshold setting, and event detection that are specialized for mining blasts and a sparse, global network. We apply the approaches to two different weeks of study for each of two geographic regions, Wyoming and Scandinavia, to evaluate the potential for establishing a set of standards for waveform correlation processing of mining blasts that can be effective for operational monitoring systems with a sparse network. We compare candidate events detected with our processing methods to the Reviewed Event Bulletin of the International Data Centre to develop an intuition about potential reduction in analyst workload.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Applying Waveform Correlation to Mining Blasts Using a Global Sparse Network

Agencies that monitor for underground nuclear tests are interested in techniques that automatically characterize mining blasts to reduce the human analyst effort required to produce high-quality event bulletins. Waveform correlation is effective in finding similar waveforms from repeating seismic events, including mining blasts. We report the results of an experiment that uses waveform templates recorded by multiple International Monitoring System stations of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization for up to 10 years prior to the time period of interest to detect and identify mining blasts that occur during single weeks of study. We discuss approaches for template selection, threshold setting, and event detection that are specialized for mining blasts and a sparse, global network. We apply the approaches to two different weeks of study for each of two geographic regions, Wyoming and Scandinavia, to evaluate the potential for establishing a set of standards for waveform correlation processing of mining blasts that can be effective for operational monitoring systems with a sparse network. We compare candidate events detected with our processing methods to the Reviewed Event Bulletin of the International Data Centre to develop an intuition about potential reduction in analyst workload.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Distribution Network Voltage and Sensor Allocation

Increasing penetration of fast-varying energy resources may negatively affect power systems' operation. At the same time, sensor deployment throughout distribution networks improves system awareness and enables the development of new and advanced voltage control solutions. Such control techniques rely on accurate prediction in anticipation to voltage violation scenarios. This paper analyzes various approaches for voltage prediction in a distribution system; it is shown that combining multiple techniques into a single regressor improves its predictive power. Moreover, a two-step regressor is proposed, where initial predictions based on a global regressor are refined by local regressors; in this case, prediction errors decrease significantly. Additionally, a clustering approach is employed for performing sensor allocation, so that only the most influential buses are selected for monitoring without diminishing prediction accuracy.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Evaluating software defined networking solutions to reduce the digital attack surface of nuclear security systems

Most nuclear security systems used today were not designed for today’s threat environment. Systems that were intended to be stand alone are now interconnected. Devices that have a single purpose are built on multi-purpose platforms and communication protocols that, while effective, have no ability to authenticate authorized versus unauthorized commands. These attributes provide an attacker significant ability to affect the system, pivot throughout the interconnected networks, and remain undetected if he/she is able to compromise a single node. Software defined networking (SDN) has been used for years by information technology (IT) cloud service providers to quickly provision or remove servers or other systems to meet changing demand. The same concept has recently been applied to operational technology (OT) systems to enable very fast failover on critical systems that have stringent and deterministic (<5ms) transmit/receive times. By carefully engineering the communication flows through a network using preplanned routes and specific pathways it is possible to achieve deterministic and extremely reliable message delivery even when components fail. This engineering approach to network design has added security benefits including securing the networking control plane, eliminating network scanning and mapping, inhibiting ARP spoofing and host masquerading, eliminating unauthorized network pivoting and enabling greater situational awareness on the network. SDN in OT environments is new but early testing in electrical power and other critical infrastructure has shown it to be a very powerful tool for building reliable networks and reducing the digital attack surface of the network. The authors tested a software defined network switch on a simple physical protection system with components commonly found in nuclear security systems and found improved mitigations to denial of service attacks, lateral movement and network reconnaissance. The paper details the tests and their results.

Cyber security, Nuclear security, software defined↗

Process prediction and detection of faults using probabilistic bidirectional recurrent neural networks on real plant data

Attaining Industry 4.0 for manufacturing operations requires advanced monitoring systems and real-time data analytics of plant data, among other topics. We propose a Probabilistic Bidirectional Recurrent Network (PBRN) for industrial process monitoring for the early detection of faults. The model is based on a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network that allows the model to retain long-term dependencies between sensor data along a time horizon, hence learning the dynamic behavior of the process. To reduce the false-positive detection rate of the model, we compel the model to learn from a highly noisy sensor reading while outputting noise-free sensor outputs. The performance of the proposed model is compared to other data-driven statistical process monitoring schemes using real plant data from an industrial Air Separations Unit (ASU) containing noisy sensor readings. We show that the model can learn from noisy data without reducing its performance. Using two different fault cases, we demonstrate the model’s ability to carry out early fault detection with average false-positive rates of 2.9% and 4.9% for both fault cases. The missed detection rates are 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Distribution Network Voltage and Sensor Allocation

Increasing penetration levels of fast-varying energy resources might negatively affect power system operation. At the same time, sensor deployment throughout distribution networks improves system awareness and enables the development of new and advanced voltage control solutions. Such control techniques rely on accurate prediction in anticipation of voltage violation scenarios. This paper analyzes various approaches to voltage prediction in a distribution system, and it is shown that combining multiple techniques into a single regressor improves its predictive power. Moreover, a two-step regressor is proposed in which initial predictions based on a global regressor are refined by local regressors; in this case, prediction errors decrease significantly. Additionally, a clustering approach is employed to perform sensor allocation so that only the most influential buses are selected for monitoring without diminishing prediction accuracy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Distribution Network Voltage and Sensors Allocation: Preprint

Increasing penetration of fast-varying energy resources may negatively affect power systems' operation. At the same time, sensor deployment throughout distribution networks improves system awareness and enables the development of new and advanced voltage control solutions. Such control techniques rely on accurate prediction in anticipation to voltage violation scenarios. This paper analyzes various approaches for voltage prediction in a distribution system; it is shown that combining multiple techniques into a single regressor improves its predictive power. Moreover, a two-step regressor is proposed, where initial predictions based on a global regressor are refined by local regressors; in this case, prediction errors decrease significantly. Additionally, a clustering approach is employed for performing sensor allocation, so that only the most influential buses are selected for monitoring without diminishing prediction accuracy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Maximum-impact Adversary Design for Network-based Control System: A Case Study on Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings

The Internet of Things (IoT) technology has dramatically improved the efficiency of today's building operation and management. By connecting controllable devices into a communication network, control signals can be easily passed to the devices, and operating status can be acquired from measurable ends with minimal effort. However, this all-connected configuration could also expose the network-based control system (NBCS) to malicious actions, such as cyberattacks. One of the common NBCSs is the building automation system. With the promotion of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs), there has been increasing attention on securing the buildings from the network perspective. This research proposes a maximum-impact adversary design framework so that the adversary can provide the most adversarial impact on the controlled system while remaining stealthy. The proposed framework is numerically demonstrated on a network-based building energy and control system. The building energy system is built in a Modelica-based simulation environment and controlled by the state-of-the-art ASHRAE Guideline 36 control sequences. The control commands at the supervisory level, generated from the Guideline 36 controller, are assumed to be sent to local devices through communication networks using the BACnet protocol. Simulation results show that the proposed maximum-impact adversary on such a system can stealthily affect the building system's performance to its maximum extent. It is anticipated that results can be used by researchers and practitioners in the building automation industry to design efficient and robust cyber-attack detection algorithms, especially for stealthy attacks.

Chu, Mengyuan↗

Cross-Layered Cyber-Physical Power System State Estimation towards a Secure Grid Operation

In the Smart Grid paradigm, this critical infrastructure operation is increasingly exposed to cyber-threats due to the increased dependency on communication networks. An adversary can launch an attack on a power grid operation through False Data Injection into system measurements and/or through attacks on the communication network, such as flooding the communication channels with unnecessary data or intercepting messages. A cross-layered strategy that combines power grid data, communication grid monitoring and Machine Learning based processing is a promising solution for detecting cyberthreats. In this paper, an implementation of an integrated solution of a cross-layer framework is presented. The advantage of such a framework is the augmentation of valuable data that enhances the detection of anomalies in the operation of power grid. IEEE 118-bus system is built in Simulink to provide a power grid testing environment and communication network data is emulated using SimComponents. The performance of the framework is investigated under various FDI and communication attacks.

cyber security, network security, cyber-physical s↗

Risk Analysis for Remote Operation of Microreactors

Microreactors are a subset of advanced nuclear reactors that can be factory fabricated, transportable, and self-regulating. They have the potential to be used in microgrids, rural and remote areas, or emergency response applications, replacing fossil fuel sources like diesel generators and enabling sustainable energy generation. In order to make microreactor operation cost-effective, it is likely that remote communications will be needed to reduce the number of personnel required to be on site. While remote operation of energy generation and other industrial control systems is common in other industries, it is not yet adopted in the nuclear community and has many perceived and actual risks. In this paper, the severity of the risks introduced by remote operations for microreactors are explored. The primary changes in the operations involve the addition of a remote communications network and a certification system for data and controls. These changes lend themselves to considerations of cyber risks, whether unintentional or adversarial, but the assessment considers not just cyber risks introduced, but also how physical and human factors-based risks will impact the remote operations system and change the overall risk profile. This initial assessment indicates that there are standard cyber and mitigation measures that can be put in place so the risk of doing remote operations does not dramatically increase compared to local operations. This evaluation is a critical step in the process of evaluating if remote operations of microreactors is a suitable solution to meet future sustainable grid needs

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Models and Strategies for Optimal Demand Side Management in the Chemical Industries

Deregulation and the increase of renewable electricity generation from wind and solar photovoltaics have transformed the U.S. electricity market. Economic and environmental benefits notwithstanding, the presence of renewables has increased variability and uncertainty on the supply side of the grid. Managing demand, rather than generation – a strategy referred to as “demand response (DR)” – is an attractive approach for mitigating this imbalance. DR efforts aim to reduce electricity usage during peak demand times, lessening stress on the grid. Industrial users are particularly attractive entities for DR participation since they present large, localized loads that can provide significant relief on grid demand and –unlike other large loads, such as buildings – are minimally dependent on human needs and preferences. In this project, we accomplished three main objectives. (1) We developed data-driven low-order DR scheduling-relevant dynamic models of chemical processes. Concurrently, we studied the formulation and solution of the associated optimal DR production scheduling problems. (a) A prototype air separation unit (ASU) model was used to generate simulated operating data for initial modeling efforts, which enabled the later use of industrial data for data-driven modeling. (b) We utilized Hammerstein-Wiener (HW) and Finite Step Response (FSR) models to represent nonlinear plant dynamics. (c) The HW models were linearized using exact linearization so they could potentially be embedded in power system models, which are formulated as mixed integer linear programs (MILPs). (d) We solved DR optimization problems under uncertainty and found that even naïve predictions of electricity price and product demand led to significant cost savings benefits. (2) Our DR scheduling optimization problem formulations are amenable to real-time solution. (a) We utilized Lagrangian Relaxation (LR) to efficiently solve the optimization problem by decoupling subproblems linked by complicating constraints. (b) We have achieved computation times for the 3-day DR scheduling problem of an ASU as low as 1.88 minutes. (3) Our representations of the DR behavior of chemical process as grid-level batteries were embedded in power system models. (a) For a small-scale grid, we found that incorporating the dynamics of the chemical plant in the optimal power flow calculations resulted in better resource management leading to up to 15% and 46% cost reduction for the grid and chemical plant operations, respectively, during periods of power line congestion. We have published several works dedicated to modeling and solving DR optimization problems from the user side. These were published in top peer-reviewed journals and are summarized in this report. The most recent work (and papers in preparation) considers DR scheduling from the grid side. Future efforts will consider networked plants (e.g., air separation units operating on a common pipeline) for DR participation, which is expected to amplify the capabilities of industrial DR participants to perform load-shifting. Our consideration of uncertainty in DR has inspired future directions in this area as well: we plan to develop multistage methods to fully account for the effects of uncertainty in DR scheduling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Development of novel dynamic machine learning-based optimization of a coal-fired power plant

The increasing fraction of intermittent renewable energy in the electrical grid is resulting in coal-fired boilers now routinely ramp up and down. The current state-of-the-art operation for such boilers is to apply steady-state, neural network-based optimization to make control decisions in real-time, and this report demonstrates the feasibility of extending this to dynamic, neural network-based optimization using a long short-term memory neural network. A simplified numerical simulation of a t-fired coal boiler and supporting equipment is used to represent a real plant subjected to both steady-state, neural network-based optimization and dynamic, neural network-based optimization. Using the same intervals and a particle swarm optimization algorithm, the dynamic optimization outperforms the steady-state optimization and realizes up to 4.58% improvement in thermal efficiency. Dynamic optimization with a long short-term memory neural network is shown to both be feasible and beneficial for operation of a coal-fired boiler under changing load.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Asymmetry underlies stability in power grids

Abstract Behavioral homogeneity is often critical for the functioning of network systems of interacting entities. In power grids, whose stable operation requires generator frequencies to be synchronized—and thus homogeneous—across the network, previous work suggests that the stability of synchronous states can be improved by making the generators homogeneous. Here, we show that a substantial additional improvement is possible by instead making the generators suitably heterogeneous. We develop a general method for attributing this counterintuitive effect to converse symmetry breaking , a recently established phenomenon in which the system must be asymmetric to maintain a stable symmetric state. These findings constitute the first demonstration of converse symmetry breaking in real-world systems, and our method promises to enable identification of this phenomenon in other networks whose functions rely on behavioral homogeneity.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An open-source framework for balancing computational speed and fidelity in production cost models

Studies of bulk power system operations need to incorporate uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, especially around exposure to weather and climate variability and extremes, but this remains a computational modeling challenge. Commercial production cost models (PCMs) have shorter runtimes, but also important limitations (opacity, license restrictions) that do not fully support stochastic simulation. Open-source PCMs represent a potential solution. They allow for multiple, simultaneous runs in high-performance computing environments and offer flexibility in model parameterization. Yet, developers must balance computational speed (i.e. runtime) with model fidelity (i.e. accuracy). In this paper, we present Grid Operations (GO), a framework for instantiating open-source, scale-adaptive PCMs. GO allows users to search across parameter spaces to identify model versions that appropriately balance computational speed and fidelity based on experimental needs and resource limits. Results provide generalizable insights on how to navigate the fidelity and computational speed tradeoff through parameter selection. We show that models with coarser network topologies can accurately mimic market operations, sometimes better than higher-resolution models. It is thus possible to conduct large simulation experiments that characterize operational risks related to climate and weather extremes while maintaining sufficient model accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Non-Cooperative Game-Based Distributed Beam Scheduling Framework for 5G Millimeter-Wave Cellular Networks

Here, this paper studies the problem of distributed beam scheduling for 5G millimeter-Wave (mm-Wave) cellular networks where base stations (BSs) belonging to different operators share the same spectrum without centralized coordination among them. Our goal is to design efficient distributed scheduling algorithms to maximize the network utility, which is a function of the achieved throughput by the user equipment (UEs), subject to the average and instantaneous power consumption constraints of the BSs. We propose a Media Access Control (MAC) and a power allocation/adaptation mechanism utilizing the Lyapunov stochastic optimization framework and non-cooperative games. In particular, we first decompose the original utility maximization problem into two sub-optimization problems for each time frame, which are a convex optimization problem and a non-convex optimization problem, respectively. By formulating the distributed scheduling problem as a non-cooperative game where each BS is a player attempting to optimize its own utility, we provide a distributed solution to the non-convex sub-optimization problem via finding the Nash Equilibrium (NE) of the game whose weights are determined optimally by the Lyapunov optimization framework. Finally, we conduct simulation under various network settings to show the effectiveness of the proposed game-based beam scheduling algorithm in comparison to that of several reference schemes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Formulation of Three-Phase State Estimation Problem Using a Virtual Reference

State Estimation (SE) is the backbone of modern Energy Management System (EMS) due its capability of processing real time measurements and provide reliable information to system operators. Since its introduction to power systems in the 70’s, SE has been widely used in transmission networks. Distribution grids on the other hand lack sufficient number of real time measurements, and for that reason SE has not been widely implemented on these systems. The recent increase in the number of renewable energy sources connected to the grid at lower voltage levels, the advent of Distribution Automation (DA) and Smart Grids necessitate closer monitoring of distribution networks and thus forcing utilities to upgrade their operations and deploy Advanced Distribution Management Sytems (ADMS). Therefore, Distribution System State Estimation (DSE) is paramount to provide real time monitoring of active distribution grids. This papers investigates the formulation of the three-phase distribution state estimation where in the most general case, none of the system buses may have balanced three phase voltages. In such a case, the choice and definition of the slack bus need to be revisited. Most of the existing work arbitrarily assign the root bus of the distribution feeder as the balanced three-phase reference which may not be realistic for today’s active distribution systems. This paper addresses this shortcoming of the existing SE formulations by introducing a virtual reference bus. Here, the proposed approach is effectively validated by simulations carried out on distribution test systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Optimal Demand Response Incorporating Distribution LMP with PV Generation Uncertainty

The utilization of aggregated demand-side flexibility via demand response (DR) has become a promising pathway for the integration of renewable energy resources in power systems. Nowadays, there are several management strategies for DR such as the price-based transactive control strategies. However, many of such existing price-based control strategies neglect the physics and operational constraints of the underlying distribution networks when computing the price, raising concerns regarding their theoretical and practical values. This paper studies this issue and investigates optimal DR (ODR) by incorporating the distribution locational marginal price (DLMP). In particular, we discuss DR in connection with DLMPs and propose a multiperiod bilevel optimization problem to find the ODR strategy. Here, the objective is to minimize the peak load, load fluctuation, and payments of load aggregators. In addition, a robust bilevel ODR model is formulated to provide a robust ODR strategy while minimizing operating costs under the worst-case realization of uncertainties; this mitigates the impact of forecasting errors on renewable energy resources. Then, we propose an efficient solution approach by employing the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions and strong duality. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the mutual impacts of the interaction between DR and DLMP and the benefits of the robust ODR strategy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗