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Determining the amount of physical activity needed for long-term weight control

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate prospectively the influence of habitual physical activity on body weight of men and women and to develop a model that defines the role of physical activity on longitudinal weight change. DESIGN AND SETTING: Occupational cohort study conducted for a mean of 5.5 y. SUBJECTS: A total of 496 (341 male and 155 female) NASA/Johnson Space Center employees who completed the 3 month education component of the employee health-related fitness program and remained involved for a minimum of 2 y. MEASUREMENTS: Body weights were measured at baseline (T1) and follow-up (T2), and habitual physical activity was obtained from the mean of multiple ratings of the 11-point (0-10) NASA Activity Scale (NAS) recorded quarterly between T1 and T2. Other measures included age, gender, VO(2 max) obtained from maximal treadmill testing, body mass index (BMI), and body fat percentage. RESULTS: Multiple regression demonstrated that mean NAS, T1 weight, aging and gender all influence long-term T2 weight. T1 age was significant for the men only. Independently, each increase in mean NAS significantly (P<0.01) reduced T2 weight in men (b=-0.91 kg; 95% CI:-1.4 to-0.42 kg) and women (b=-2.14 kg; 95% CI:-2.93 to-1.35 kg). Mean NAS had a greater effect on T2 weight as T1 weight increased, and the relationship was dose-dependent. CONCLUSIONS: Habitual physical activity is a significant source of long-term weight change. The use of self-reported activity level is helpful in predicting long-term weight changes and may be used by health care professionals when counseling patients about the value of physical activity for weight control.

Exercise↗

Spreader-Bar Radiation Detection System Enhancements: A Modeling and Simulation Study

An investigation of radiation detectors on crane-mounted platforms was performed to understand the limitations and optimal capability of these types of systems. Crane-mounted systems are primarily focused on crane-mounted radiation detector systems, where the detectors are mounted on a spreader-bar platform. Spreader bars are attached with cables to a crane at seaports to load and unload containers from cargo ships. The bars can spread from 20 feet to 53 feet using hydraulics, allowing a single bar to move a variety of container lengths. Spreader-bars are also used on straddle carriers, which move containers around the laydown yard in the port. Spreader bar radiation detection (SBRD) systems are commercially available from at least two companies. These systems employ a set of spectroscopic sensors placed on the underside of a gantry crane and held near the top of a cargo container for detection. These systems have been previously tested and some issues and limitations observed. Radiation detectors mounted on spreader-bars are single sided systems (observing cargo only from the top) and it is therefore challenging to obtain the same sensitivity as double-sided systems (for example, portal monitors) especially when considering the possible amounts of intervening cargo that could be present. The approximately exponential attenuation of gamma rays in intervening dense cargo presents an inherent limitation to detection. However, SBRD systems hold detectors closer to the container, have a longer dwell time, and may have lower background (over the ship); all of these aspects help mitigate the single-sided issue. In addition, there are operational considerations that make spreader-bar radiation systems attractive. These include scanning for radiation during other operations (loading, unloading or container movement) which minimizes additional time for scanning, incorporating the radiation detection into existing equipment to minimize initial cost, and in the case of ship unloading, scanning the containers before reaching the laydown yard. This study is focused on researching optimized configurations of SBRD systems, including number of detectors, locations, and best use of detector data, to determine a reasonable limit on the capability of these types of systems. The results will help support decisions on where and how these systems might be effectively deployed, and could be used for future specification development for SBRD acquisition. The next phase of this research and investigation into SBRD systems and quantification of the possible improved capability with an enhanced SBRD is the focus of this report. Supporting this investigation, detailed models of an enhanced SBRD system were created using a 3D radiation transport code, and models were run to simulate the data from sources and background for a realistic cargo-loading port environment. The enhanced SBRD had increased detector material (numbers of detectors) compared to the commercial systems, with a distribution providing more uniform coverage. Measurements using small industrial sources were made with an enhanced SBRD system developed by Sandia National Laboratory to support model validation to establish credibility for the simulations of these threat and background scenarios. A significant simulation effort was undertaken to simulate sources of interest within a 40-foot cargo container. In order to estimate the performance of a generalized SBRD system in scenarios including background and cargo, a highly enriched uranium (HEU) test source (with 3x10 -8 232 U by weight) within a wood cargo model was simulated for a 40-foot cargo container. This source was placed at a variety of locations, and the flux from the source was multiplied as necessary to create estimated minimal detectable quantities (MDQ) figures for various quantities of HEU. Simulated data sets were produced corresponding to a complete container offloading scenario for a large number of statistical realizations. Significant work was performed on both the algorithm development and the container cargo distributions entering the US, and the result of this modeling, validation, and simulation effort was a set of estimates of the performance of a variety of radiation detection algorithms in this cargo-screening environment. In the case of algorithms, a variety of contemporary radiation detection and identification approaches were employed, and the optimal approaches to selecting time and location subsets of detector data were explored. In all cases, algorithm performance was compared, and the best approaches were suggested along with the best expected performance from the enhanced SBRD. In general, template-matching schemes employing a limited set of regression parameters tend to provide best results. The improvements of an enhanced SBRD with increased detector material and improved algorithms result in an effective MDQ of 10 kg of HEU in ~50 percent of the imported cargo in 40-foot containers, assuming a random source location. This is approximately two times the capability of the estimated performance of the commercial systems. For an MDQ of the 10 kg HEU source located in the worst location (bottom of the 40-foot container), the volume of cargo scanned drops to 10% for the enhanced SBRD, again a factor of two or more larger than the commercial systems. Enhancing the SBRD systems by adding more detectors, providing a more uniform coverage, and incorporating more advanced algorithms will result in a significant increase in capability. Although this investigation provided some indication of the performance capabilities of an enhanced SBRD system, additional work is needed to estimate the capability for other container configurations, such as the 20 and 45 foot containers. Since the 20-foot container weight limit is similar to the 40-foot, more dense cargo is typically shipped in 20-foot containers. This will result in a smaller percentage of cargo scanned for the 20-foot containers (for a particular source quantity) compared to the 40-foot containers. In addition to other configuration, other source material needs to be investigated to understand the capabilities for the entire threat space, where only HEU is considered in this work.

crane-mounted↗

Preindustrial to Present-Day Changes in Tropospheric Hydroxyl Radical and Methane Lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850) and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multi-model mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH) for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42), in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north–south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34%). Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted) OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone), compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC) emissions). The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6%) indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the change in global mean tropospheric CO and NOx burdens (Delta CO/Delta NOx, approximately represents changes in OH sinks versus changes in OH sources) in the models, pointing to a need for better constraints on natural precursor emissions and on the chemical mechanisms in the current generation of chemistry-climate models. For the 1980 to 2000 period, we find that climate warming and a slight increase in mean OH (3.5 +/- 2.2%) leads to a 4.3 +/- 1.9% decrease in the methane lifetime. Analysing sensitivity simulations performed by 10 models, we find that preindustrial to present-day climate change decreased the methane lifetime by about four months, representing a negative feedback on the climate system. Further, we analysed attribution experiments performed by a subset of models relative to 2000 conditions with only one precursor at a time set to 1860 levels. We find that global mean OH increased by 46.4 +/- 12.2% in response to preindustrial to present-day anthropogenic NOx emission increases, and decreased by 17.3 +/-2.3%, 7.6 +/- 1.5%, and 3.1 +/- 3.0% due to methane burden, and anthropogenic CO, and NMVOC emissions increases, respectively.

nitrogen oxides↗

Assessments of epistemic uncertainty using Gaussian stochastic weight averaging for fluid-flow regression

Here, we use Gaussian stochastic weight averaging (SWAG) to assess the epistemic uncertainty associated with neural-network-based function approximation relevant to fluid flows. SWAG approximates a posterior Gaussian distribution of each weight, given training data, and a constant learning rate. Having access to this distribution, it is able to create multiple models with various combinations of sampled weights, which can be used to obtain ensemble predictions. The average of such an ensemble can be regarded as the 'mean estimation', whereas its standard deviation can be used to construct 'confidence intervals', which enable us to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) with regard to the training process of neural networks. We utilize representative neural-network-based function approximation tasks for the following cases: (i) a two-dimensional circular-cylinder wake; (ii) the DayMET dataset (maximum daily temperature in North America); (iii) a three-dimensional square-cylinder wake; and (iv) urban flow, to assess the generalizability of the present idea for a wide range of complex datasets. SWAG-based UQ can be applied regardless of the network architecture, and therefore, we demonstrate the applicability of the method for two types of neural networks: (i) global field reconstruction from sparse sensors by combining convolutional neural network (CNN) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP); and (ii) far-field state estimation from sectional data with two-dimensional CNN. We find that SWAG can obtain physically-interpretable confidence-interval estimates from the perspective of epistemic uncertainty. This capability supports its use for a wide range of problems in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Population Pharmacokinetics of Intranasal Scopolamine

Introduction: An intranasal gel dosage formulation of scopolamine (INSCOP) was developed for the treatment of Space Motion Sickness (SMS).The bioavailability and pharmacokinetics (PK) was evaluated using data collected in Phase II IND protocols. We reported earlier statistically significant gender differences in PK parameters of INSCOP at a dose level of 0.4 mg. To identify covariates that influence PK parameters of INSCOP, we examined population covariates of INSCOP PK model for 0.4 mg dose. Methods: Plasma scopolamine concentrations versus time data were collected from 20 normal healthy human subjects (11 male/9 female) after a 0.4 mg dose. Phoenix NLME was employed for PK analysis of these data using gender, body weight and age as covariates for model selection. Model selection was based on a likelihood ratio test on the difference of criteria (-2LL). Statistical significance for base model building and individual covariate analysis was set at P less than 0.05{delta(-2LL)=3.84}. Results: A one-compartment pharmacokinetic model with first-order elimination best described INSCOP concentration ]time profiles. Inclusion of gender, body weight and age as covariates individually significantly reduced -2LL by the cut-off value of 3.84(P less than 0.05) when tested against the base model. After the forward stepwise selection and backward elimination steps, gender was selected to add to the final model which had significant influence on absorption rate constant (ka) and the volume of distribution (V) of INSCOP. Conclusion: A population pharmacokinetic model for INSCOP has been identified and gender was a significant contributing covariate for the final model. The volume of distribution and Ka were significantly higher in males than in females which confirm gender-dependent pharmacokinetics of scopolamine after administration of a 0.4 mg dose.

Wu, L.↗

Balancing unevenly distributed data in seismic tomography: a global adjoint tomography example

SUMMARY The uneven distribution of earthquakes and stations in seismic tomography leads to slower convergence of nonlinear inversions and spatial bias in inversion results. Including dense regional arrays, such as USArray or Hi-Net, in global tomography causes severe convergence and spatial bias problems, against which conventional pre-conditioning schemes are ineffective. To save computational cost and reduce model bias, we propose a new strategy based on a geographical weighting of sources and receivers. Unlike approaches based on ray density or the Voronoi tessellation, this method scales to large full-waveform inversion problems and avoids instabilities at the edges of dense receiver or source clusters. We validate our strategy using a 2-D global waveform inversion test and show that the new weighting scheme leads to a nearly twofold reduction in model error and much faster convergence relative to a conventionally pre-conditioned inversion. We implement this geographical weighting strategy for global adjoint tomography.

Ruan, Youyi↗

SU-E-T-520: Four-Dimensional Dose Calculation Algorithm Considering Variations in Dose Distribution Induced by Sinusoidal One-Dimensional Motion Patterns

Purpose: To investigate quantitatively the variations in dose-distributions induced by motion by measurements and modeling. A four-dimensional (4D) motion model of dose distributions that accounts for different motion parameters was developed. Methods: Variations in dose distributions induced by sinusoidal phantom motion were measured using a multiple-diode-array-detector (MapCheck2). MapCheck2 was mounted on a mobile platform that moves with adjustable calibrated motion patterns in the superior-inferior direction. Various plans including open and intensity-modulated fields were used to irradiate MapCheck2. A motion model was developed to predict spatial and temporal variations in the dose-distributions and dependence on the motion parameters using pencil-beam spread-out superposition function. This model used the superposition of pencil-beams weighted with a probability function extracted from the motion trajectory. The model was verified with measured dose-distributions obtained from MapCheck2. Results: Dose-distribution varied considerably with motion where in the regions between isocenter and 50% isodose-line, dose decreased with increase of the motion amplitude. Dose levels increased with increase in the motion amplitude in the region beyond 50% isodose-line. When the range of motion (ROM=twice amplitude) was smaller than the field length both central axis dose and the 50% isodose-line did not change with variation of motion amplitude and remained equal to the dose of stationary phantom. As ROM became larger than the field length, the dose level decreased at central axis dose and 50% isodose-line. Motion frequency and phase did not affect the dose distributions which were delivered over an extended time longer than few motion cycles, however, they played an important role for doses delivered with high-dose-rates within one motion cycle . Conclusion: A 4D-dose motion model was developed to predict and correct variations in dose distributions induced by one-dimensional sinusoidal motion. This model was verified with measured dose-distributions and can be expanded to consider complicated patient motion patterns.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

IntraShuffler: A Privacy Preserving Framework for Heterogeneous DP Federated Learning

Heterogeneous Differential Privacy (HDP) in Federated Learning (FL) allows clients to select individual privacy budgets () according to institutional policies and data sensitivity. In practice, many HDP-FL systems employ -aware server aggregation to improve model utility by re-weighting client updates according to their declared privacy budgets. However, gradient updates in FL retain structural patterns induced by non-independent and identically-distributed (non-IID) data, and these additional signals exposed by -aware aggregation create new opportunities for inference by an honest-but-curious server. In this work, we first show that a server equipped with gradient denoising and surrogate modeling can mount a Privacy Inference Attack that infers distributional attributes of clients and links updates from the same client across training rounds, measured via surrogate inference accuracy and linkage success, under realistic knowledge constraints. The Shuffle-Model has been widely studied as a defense against such inference risks by anonymizing update sources, but it is fundamentally incompatible with HDP-FL -aware aggregation. To address this challenge, we propose IntraShuffler, a middleware defense framework designed for HDP-FL systems. IntraShuffler introduces a privacy-aware shuffling mechanism that groups clients into privacy-compatible buckets and performs parameter-level shuffling within each bucket to disrupt persistent gradient structure while preserving -aware aggregation. Experiments across four different datasets show that IntraShuffler reduces gradient recoverability by over 60% and decreases surrogate inference accuracy from 0.78 to 0.33 while maintaining comparable model utility across multiple FL aggregation rules.

Riya, Farhin Farhad [ORNL]↗

Comprehensive study of the dynamics of a classical Kitaev spin liquid

In this work, we study the spin-S Kitaev model in the classical (S→∞) limit using Monte Carlo simulations combined with semiclassical spin dynamics. We discuss differences and similarities in the dynamical structure factors of the spin-1/2 and the classical Kitaev liquids. The quantum behavior is restricted to low temperatures where a gap protects visons from decohering the system. Once this quantum gap is breached, at low temperatures compared to the coupling constant, significant entropic disorder decoheres the Majorana fermions and the system is described quantitatively by classical dynamics. The low-temperature and low-energy spectrum of the classical model exhibits a finite-energy peak, which is the precursor of the one produced by the Majorana modes of the S=1/2 model. The classical peak is spectrally narrowed compared to the quantum result and can be explained by magnon excitations within fluctuating one-dimensional manifolds (loops). Hence the difference from the classical limit to the quantum limit can be understood by the fractionalization of magnons propagating in one-dimensional manifolds. Moreover, we show that the momentum-space distribution of the low-energy spectral weight of the S=1/2 model follows the momentum-space distribution of zero modes of the classical model.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Solid-State Structure and Crystallization in Double-Crystalline Diblock Copolymers of Linear Polyethylene and Hydrogenated Polynorbornene

Double-crystalline diblock copolymers of linear polyethylene (LPE) and hydrogenated polynorbornene (hPN) are synthesized, and their crystallization behavior and morphology are examined using small-angle (SAXS) and wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS). In symmetric hPN/LPE diblocks with molecular weights above 50 kg/mol, the hPN block has previously been shown to crystallize first and set the solid-state microstructure. Two-dimensional WAXS on hand-drawn fiber specimens reveals that the LPE crystals formed in confinement stack orthogonally to the hPN crystals. By adjusting total molecular weight, the order of block crystallization may be reversed, even while holding the block length ratio fixed. At a diblock molecular weight of 20 kg/mol, simultaneous time-resolved SAXS/WAXS reveals that the LPE block crystallizes first, even when LPE is the minority component, and restricts hPN to crystallize between the LPE lamellae. The relative orientation of the LPE and hPN crystals in the lower molecular weight diblocks is examined by modeling changes in the SAXS primary peak intensity on cooling two diblocks through the hPN crystal-crystal transition, where hPN densifies as it adopts a rotationally ordered crystal structure. Only a perpendicular stacking of hPN and LPE crystals consistently yields the large reduction in primary SAXS peak intensity observed for both diblocks. Thus, even though the templating block switches from hPN to LPE as the diblock molecular weight is reduced, the orthogonal stacking motif is retained for both high- and low-molecular-weight copolymers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

MULTI-COLOR TRANSIT PHOTOMETRY OF GJ 1214b THROUGH BJHK{sub s} BANDS AND A LONG-TERM MONITORING OF THE STELLAR VARIABILITY OF GJ 1214

We present five new transit light curves of GJ 1214b taken in the BJHK{sub s} bands. Two transits were observed in the B band using the Subaru Prime Focus Camera (Suprime-Cam) and the Faint Object Camera and Spectrograph (FOCAS) instruments on board the Subaru 8.2 m telescope, and one transit was done in the JHK{sub s} bands simultaneously with the Simultaneous Infrared Imager for Unbiased Survey (SIRIUS) camera on the Infrared Survey Facility (IRSF) 1.4 m telescope. Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses show that the planet-to-star radius ratios are R{sub p}/R{sub s} = 0.11651 {+-} 0.00065 (B band, Subaru/Suprime-Cam), R{sub p}/R{sub s} = 0.11601 {+-} 0.00117 (B band, Subaru/FOCAS), R{sub p}/R{sub s} = 0.11654 {+-} 0.00080 (J band, IRSF/SIRIUS), R{sub p}/R{sub s}= 0.11550{sup +0.00142}{sub -0.00153} (H band, IRSF/SIRIUS), and R{sub p}/R{sub s} = 0.11547 {+-} 0.00127 (K{sub s} band, IRSF/SIRIUS). The Subaru Suprime-Cam transit photometry shows a possible spot-crossing feature. Comparisons of the new transit depths and those from previous studies with the theoretical models by Howe and Burrows suggest that the high molecular weight atmosphere (e.g., 1% H{sub 2}O + 99% N{sub 2}) models are most likely, however, the low molecular weight (hydrogen-dominated) atmospheres with extensive clouds are still not excluded. We also report a long-term monitoring of the stellar brightness variability of GJ 1214 observed with the MITSuME 50 cm telescope in the g', R{sub c}, and I{sub c} bands simultaneously. The monitoring was conducted for 32 nights spanning 78 nights in 2012, and we find a periodic brightness variation with a period of P{sub s} = 44.3 {+-} 1.2 days and semi-amplitudes of 2.1% {+-} 0.4% in the g' band, 0.56% {+-} 0.08% in the R{sub c} band, and 0.32% {+-} 0.04% in the I{sub c} band.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Validity of VO(2 max) in predicting blood volume: implications for the effect of fitness on aging

A multiple regression model was constructed to investigate the premise that blood volume (BV) could be predicted using several anthropometric variables, age, and maximal oxygen uptake (VO(2 max)). To test this hypothesis, age, calculated body surface area (height/weight composite), percent body fat (hydrostatic weight), and VO(2 max) were regressed on to BV using data obtained from 66 normal healthy men. Results from the evaluation of the full model indicated that the most parsimonious result was obtained when age and VO(2 max) were regressed on BV expressed per kilogram body weight. The full model accounted for 52% of the total variance in BV per kilogram body weight. Both age and VO(2 max) were related to BV in the positive direction. Percent body fat contributed <1% to the explained variance in BV when expressed in absolute BV (ml) or as BV per kilogram body weight. When the model was cross validated on 41 new subjects and BV per kilogram body weight was reexpressed as raw BV, the results indicated that the statistical model would be stable under cross validation (e.g., predictive applications) with an accuracy of +/- 1,200 ml at 95% confidence. Our results support the hypothesis that BV is an increasing function of aerobic fitness and to a lesser extent the age of the subject. The results may have implication as to a mechanism by which aerobic fitness and activity may be protective against reduced BV associated with aging.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

A comparison of two types of velocity models for the lunar crust: Smooth continuous and stepwise layered

The data from the Apollo-14 and Apollo-16 Active Seismic Experiments were reanalyzed and show that a power-law velocity variation with depth is consistent with both the traveltimes and amplitudes of the first arrivals for source-to-geophone separations up to 32m. The data were improved by removing spurious glithches, flickering and stacking. While this improved the signal-to-noise ratios, it was not possible to measure the arrivals beyond 32m. The physical evidence that the shallow lunar regolith is made up of fine particles adds weight to the 1/6-power velocity model. The 1/6-power law predicts the traveltime t(x), varies with separation, x, as t(x) = t sub 0 (x/x sub 0) to the 5/6 power and, using a first-order theory, the amplitude, A(x), varies as A(x) = A sub 0 (x/x sub 0) to the (13-m)/12, M 1; the layer-velocity model predicts t(x) = t sub 0 (x/xsub 0) and A(x) = A sub 0 (x/x sub 0) to the 2nd power.

Gangi, A. F.↗

Design of set-point weighting PI{sup λ} + D{sup μ} controller for vertical magnetic flux controller in Damavand tokamak

In this paper, a simple method is presented for tuning weighted PI{sup λ} + D{sup μ} controller parameters based on the pole placement controller of pseudo-second-order fractional systems. One of the advantages of this controller is capability of reducing the disturbance effects and improving response to input, simultaneously. In the following sections, the performance of this controller is evaluated experimentally to control the vertical magnetic flux in Damavand tokamak. For this work, at first a fractional order model is identified using output-error technique in time domain. For various practical experiments, having desired time responses for magnetic flux in Damavand tokamak, is vital. To approach this, at first the desired closed loop reference models are obtained based on generalized characteristic ratio assignment method in fractional order systems. After that, for the identified model, a set-point weighting PI{sup λ} + D{sup μ} controller is designed and simulated. Finally, this controller is implemented on digital signal processor control system of the plant to fast/slow control of magnetic flux. The practical results show appropriate performance of this controller.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Integrated Model Reduction and Control of Aircraft with Flexible Wings

This paper presents an integrated approach to the modeling and control of aircraft with exible wings. The coupled aircraft rigid body dynamics with a high-order elastic wing model can be represented in a nite dimensional state-space form. Given a set of desired output covariance, a model reduction process is performed by using the weighted Modal Cost Analysis (MCA). A dynamic output feedback controller, which is designed based on the reduced-order model, is developed by utilizing output covariance constraint (OCC) algorithm, and the resulting OCC design weighting matrix is used for the next iteration of the weighted cost analysis. This controller is then validated for full-order evaluation model to ensure that the aircraft's handling qualities are met and the uttering motion of the wings suppressed. An iterative algorithm is developed in CONDUIT environment to realize the integration of model reduction and controller design. The proposed integrated approach is applied to NASA Generic Transport Model (GTM) for demonstration.

AEROELASTIC↗

Metafitting: Weight optimization for least-squares fitting of PTTI data

For precise time intercomparisons between a master frequency standard and a slave time scale, we have found it useful to quantitatively compare different fitting strategies by examining the standard uncertainty in time or average frequency. It is particularly useful when designing procedures which use intermittent intercomparisons, with some parameterized fit used to interpolate or extrapolate from the calibrating intercomparisons. We use the term 'metafitting' for the choices that are made before a fitting procedure is operationally adopted. We present methods for calculating the standard uncertainty for general, weighted least-squares fits and a method for optimizing these weights for a general noise model suitable for many PTTI applications. We present the results of the metafitting of procedures for the use of a regular schedule of (hypothetical) high-accuracy frequency calibration of a maser time scale. We have identified a cumulative series of improvements that give a significant reduction of the expected standard uncertainty, compared to the simplest procedure of resetting the maser synthesizer after each calibration. The metafitting improvements presented include the optimum choice of weights for the calibration runs, optimized over a period of a week or 10 days.

Douglas, Rob J.↗

Geothermal play-fairway analysis of Washington State prospects

Herein, analysis of existing geologic, geophysical, and geochemical data revealed areas with elevated heat and permeability, defining three promising plays along the central axis of the magmatic arc of Washington State: Mount St. Helens, Wind River valley, and the southeast flank of Mount Baker. These areas are geothermal ‘fairways’, or locations with high geothermal resource potential based on modeling. This project applies innovative data analyses (Poly3D) in conjunction with methods proven in previous geothermal favorability studies (ArcGIS and MATLAB) to extract new value from existing public data. Heat and permeability potential models for each play are weighted using the Analytical Hierarchy Process, and combined to map geothermal resource potential and locations for further data collection at each site. Heat potential is based on: (1) temperature gradients, (2) volcanic vents, (3) Quaternary intrusive rocks, (4) spring temperature, and (5) spring geothermometry. Permeability potential is based on: (1) slip and (2) dilation tendency on mapped and seismic faults (3) maximum shear strain rate, and (4) dilatational strain rate at the surface, (5) modeled fault displacement distribution, and (6) displacement gradient, (7) shear, and (8) tensile fracture density, and (9) local geology and geophysical data. This information is vital for revealing the small scale heat and permeability potential of each study area, locating areas of undiscovered or untapped resources, and reducing the risk and cost involved in greenfield exploration and development. Preliminary analysis of the three play areas shows promise for geothermal development. Uncertainty modeling is underway and the results will guide future exploration plans.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Adsorption of terbium (III) on DGA and LN resins: Thermodynamics, isotherms, and kinetics

Two commercially available extraction chromatography (EXC) resins containing N,N,N’,N’-tetra-n-octyldiglycolamide (DGA Resin, Normal, 50 – 100 μm) and Bis(2-ethylhexyl) phosphate (LN Resin, 100 – 150 μm) were used as adsorbents to study fundamental adsorption properties such as thermodynamic values, equilibrium isotherms, and kinetic uptake models for terbium(III) adsorption. Weight distribution ratios (D w ) for terbium on DGA and LN resins were measured using a [ 160 Tb]Tb 3+ radiometric tracer in nitric acid as a function of acidity, temperature, initial analyte concentration, and equilibrium time. The D w values showed increasing binding affinity for DGA resin at high nitric acid concentrations and decreasing binding affinity for LN resins. Thermodynamic studies for DGA and LN resins revealed that the Gibbs free energy (ΔG) increased consistently with temperature. To model equilibrium data, increasingly higher parameter equilibrium isotherm models (Henry (1) < Langmuir, Freundlich (2) < Redlich-Peterson (3) < Fritz-Schluender (4)) were compared on their root mean squared errors (RMSE) and adjusted determination coefficients to determine the most applicable model. In all cases, the empirical four-parameter Fritz-Schluender isotherm demonstrated a superior fit. Similar comparisons for reaction-based kinetic models (Pseudo-first-order < Pseudo-second-order < Pseudo-n-order) revealed that the higher-order PNO model yielded a superior fit of kinetic data for both resins. Furthermore, in some cases, adsorption isotherms and kinetic models could also be modeled by a lower-order model with minimal change in error parameters. Weber-Morris plots revealed that two linear sections are observed for each resin, where the first linear segment is attributed to fast (film diffusion) adsorption of terbium, followed by slower intraparticle diffusion of terbium through the pores as the rate-limiting step. Based on the Weber-Morris plot, both film and intraparticle diffusion are involved in controlling the kinetic rate of adsorption for DGA and LN resins.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗