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At least 631 records · Page 35

Mars global reference atmosphere model (Mars-GRAM)

Mars-GRAM is an empirical model that parameterizes the temperature, pressure, density, and wind structure of the Martian atmosphere from the surface through thermospheric altitudes. In the lower atmosphere of Mars, the model is built around parameterizations of height, latitudinal, longitudinal, and seasonal variations of temperature determined from a survey of published measurements from the Mariner and Viking programs. Pressure and density are inferred from the temperature by making use of the hydrostatic and perfect gas laws relationships. For the upper atmosphere, the thermospheric model of Stewart is used. A hydrostatic interpolation routine is used to insure a smooth transition from the lower portion of the model to the Stewart thermospheric model. Other aspects of the model are discussed.

Justus, C. G.↗

Frame invariant neural network closures for Kraichnan turbulence

Numerical simulations of geophysical and atmospheric flows have to rely on parameterizations of subgrid scale processes due to their limited spatial resolution. Despite substantial progress in developing parameterization (or closure) models for subgrid scale (SGS) processes using physical insights and mathematical approximations, they remain imperfect and can lead to inaccurate predictions. In recent years, machine learning has been successful in extracting complex patterns from high-resolution spatio-temporal data, leading to improved parameterization models, and ultimately better coarse grid prediction. However, the inability to satisfy known physics and poor generalization hinders the application of these models for real-world problems. In this work, we put forth a frame invariant closure approach to improve the accuracy and generalizability of deep learning-based subgrid scale closure models by embedding physical symmetries directly into the structure of the neural network. Specifically, we utilized specialized layers within the convolutional neural network in such a way that desired constraints are theoretically guaranteed without the need for any regularization terms. We demonstrate our framework for a two-dimensional decaying turbulence test case mostly characterized by the forward enstrophy cascade. We show that our frame invariant SGS model (i) accurately predicts the subgrid scale source term, (ii) respects the physical symmetries such as translation, Galilean, and rotation invariance, and (iii) is numerically stable when implemented in coarse-grid simulation with generalization to different initial conditions and Reynolds number. This work opens up a possibility of connecting physics-based theories and data-driven modeling paradigms, and thus represents a promising step towards the development of physically consistent data-driven turbulence closure models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multifidelity uncertainty quantification with models based on dissimilar parameters

Multifidelity uncertainty quantification (MF UQ) sampling approaches have been shown to significantly reduce the variance of statistical estimators while preserving the bias of the highest-fidelity model, provided that the low-fidelity models are well correlated. However, maintaining a high level of correlation can be challenging, especially when models depend on different input uncertain parameters, which drastically reduces the correlation. Existing MF UQ approaches do not adequately address this issue. In this work, we propose a new sampling strategy that exploits a shared space to improve the correlation among models with dissimilar parameterization. We achieve this by transforming the original coordinates onto an auxiliary manifold using the adaptive basis (AB) method (Tipireddy and Ghanem, 2014). The AB method has two main benefits: (1) it provides an effective tool to identify the low-dimensional manifold on which each model can be represented, and (2) it enables easy transformation of polynomial chaos representations from high- to low-dimensional spaces. This latter feature is used to identify a shared manifold among models without requiring additional evaluations. Here we present two algorithmic flavors of the new estimator to cover different analysis scenarios, including those with legacy and non-legacy high-fidelity (HF) data. We provide numerical results for analytical examples, a direct field acoustic test, and a finite element model of a nuclear fuel assembly. For all examples, we compare the proposed strategy against both single-fidelity and MF estimators based on the original model parameterization.

42 ENGINEERING↗

New parameterizations and sensitivities for simple climate models

This paper presents a reexamination of the earth radiation budget parameterization of energy balance climate models in light of data collected over the last 12 years. The study consists of three parts: (1) an examination of the infrared terrestrial radiation to space and its relationship to the surface temperature field on time scales from 1 month to 10 years; (2) an examination of the albedo of the earth with special attention to the seasonal cycle of snow and clouds; (3) solutions for the seasonal cycle using the new parameterizations with special attention to changes in sensitivity. While the infrared parameterization is not dramatically different from that used in the past, the albedo in the new data suggest that a stronger latitude dependence be employed. After retuning the diffusion coefficient the simulation results for the present climate generally show only a slight dependence on the new parameters. Also, the sensitivity parameter for the model is still about the same (1.25 C for a 1 percent increase of solar constant) for the linear models and for the nonlinear models that include a seasonal snow line albedo feedback (1.34 C). One interesting feature is that a clear-sky planet with a snow line albedo feedback has a significantly higher sensitivity (2.57 C) due to the absence of smoothing normally occurring in the presence of average cloud cover.

Graves, Charles E.↗

Evaluating Diurnal and Semi-Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in CMIP6 Models Using Satellite- and Ground-Based Observations

We report the diurnal and semi-diurnal cycle of precipitation simulated from CMIP6 models during 1996-2005 are evaluated globally between 60°S and 60°N, as well as at ten selected locations representing three categories of diurnal cycle of precipitation: (1) afternoon precipitation over land, (2) early morning precipitation over ocean, and (3) nocturnal precipitation over land. Three satellite-based and two ground-based rainfall products are used to evaluate the climate models. Globally, the ensemble mean of CMIP6 models shows a diurnal phase of 3 to 4 hours earlier over land and 1 to 2 hours earlier over ocean, when compared with the latest satellite products. These biases are in line with what were found in previous versions of climate models but reduced compared to the CMIP5 ensemble mean. Analysis at the selected locations complimented with in-situ measurements further reinforces these results. Several CMIP6 models have shown a significant improvement in the diurnal cycle of precipitation compared to their CMIP5 counterparts, notably on delaying afternoon precipitation over land. This can be attributed to the use of more sophisticated convective parameterizations. Most models are still unable to capture the nocturnal peak associated with elevated convection and propagating mesoscale convective systems, with a few exceptions that allow convection to be initiated above the boundary layer to capture nocturnal elevated convection. We also quantify an encouraging consistency between the satellite- and ground-based precipitation measurements despite differing spatiotemporal resolutions and sampling periods, which provides confidence in using them to evaluate the diurnal and semi-diurnal cycle of precipitation in climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Bayesian Multi-fidelity Neural Network to Predict Nonlinear Frequency Backbone Curves

The use of structural mechanics models during the design process often leads to the development of models of varying fidelity. Often low-fidelity models are efficient to simulate but lack accuracy, while the high-fidelity counterparts are accurate with less efficiency. Here, this paper presents a multi-fidelity surrogate modeling approach that combines the accuracy of a high-fidelity finite element model with the efficiency of a low-fidelity model to train an even faster surrogate model that parameterizes the design space of interest. The objective of these models is to predict the nonlinear frequency backbone curves of the Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge benchmark structure which exhibits simultaneous nonlinearities from frictional contact and geometric nonlinearity. The surrogate model consists of an ensemble of neural networks that learn the mapping between low and high-fidelity data through nonlinear transformations. Bayesian neural networks are used to assess the surrogate model's uncertainty. Once trained, the multi-fidelity neural network is used to perform sensitivity analysis to assess the influence of the design parameters on the predicted backbone curves. Additionally, Bayesian calibration is performed to update the input parameter distributions to correlate the model parameters to the collection of experimentally measured backbone curves.

42 ENGINEERING↗

On the interaction of surface heating anomalies with zonally symmetric and asymmetric atmospheric flows

Models of intermediate complexity have been used to study some aspects of the climatic effects of anomalous heating, but many aspects of the problem have yet to be explored thoroughly. The present study represents a preliminary investigated of the gaps in scientific understanding of the interaction of heating and atmospheric dynamics. The principle research tool is a model of intermediate complexity, including a time-dependent, nonlinear-two-layer quasi-geostrophic model of relatively high horizontal resolution which incorporates simple heating parameterizations. The model is used to examine systematically the interaction of heating arising from anomalies in surface temperature with zonally symmetric and zonally asymmetric flows characterized by different values of static stability and mean vertical wind shear.

Phillips, T. J.↗

Mesoscale lake-effect snowstorms in the vicinity of Lake Michigan - Linear theory and numerical simulations

Mesoscale lake-effect snowstorms in the vicinity of Lake Michigan are studied by a linear steady-state analytic model and a nonlinear time-dependent numerical model with parameterized subgrid-scale physics. The solutions of the linear model show that the orientation of the mean wind field to the surface heating pattern is crucial to the shapes of the disturbances. The results indicate that the relative warmth of the lake surface can induce three updraft centers under a westerly wind, two updraft centers/bands under a northwesterly wind, and a convergence band under a northerly wind. Such convergences are caused by the interaction between the mean wind and the local circulations forced by the curved thermal contrasts. The numerical results from the nonlinear model not only produce convergence patterns very similar to those found in the linear theory and in other numerical studies, but also capture the transient property in some of the lake-induced disturbances. All of these results are qualitatively confirmed by satellite images.

Hsu, Hsiao-Ming↗

Duct flow nonuniformities: Effect of struts in SSME HGM II(+)

A numerical study, using the INS3D flow solver, of laminar and turbulent flow around a two dimensional strut, and three dimensional flow around a strut in an annulus is presented. A multi-block procedure was used to calculate two dimensional laminar flow around two struts in parallel, with each strut represented by one computational block. Single block calculations were performed for turbulent flow around a two dimensional strut, using a Baldwin-Lomax turbulence model to parameterize the turbulent shear stresses. A modified Baldwin-Lomax model was applied to the case of a three dimensional strut in an annulus. The results displayed the essential features of wing-body flows, including the presence of a horseshoe vortex system at the junction of the strut and the lower annulus surface. A similar system was observed at the upper annulus surface. The test geometries discussed were useful in developing the capability to perform multiblock calculations, and to simulate turbulent flow around obstructions located between curved walls. Both of these skills will be necessary to model the three dimensional flow in the strut assembly of the SSME. Work is now in progress on performing a three dimensional two block turbulent calculation of the flow in the turnaround duct (TAD) and strut/fuel bowl juncture region.

Burke, Roger↗

Obtaining consistent models of helicopter flight-data measurement errors using kinematic-compatibility and state-reconstruction methods

A new method was developed for application of Kalman Filter/Smoothers to post-flight processing of helicopter flight test dynamic measurements. This processing includes checking for kinematic compatibility among the measurements, identification of a measurement error model, and reconstruction of both measured and unmeasured time histories. Emphasis is placed on identification of a parametric measurement error model which is valid for a set of flight test data. This is facilitated through a new method of concatenating several maneuver time histories. The method also includes a model structure determination step which ensures that a physically realistic parameterization has been achieved. Application of the method to a set of BO-105 flight test data is illustrated. The resulting minimally parameterized error model is shown to characterize the measurement errors of the entire data set with very little variation in the parameter values. Reconstructed time histories are shown to have increased bandwidths and signal to noise ratios.

Fletcher, Jay W.↗

An Evaluation of Marine Boundary Layer Cloud Property Simulations in the Community Atmosphere Model Using Satellite Observations: Conventional Subgrid Parameterization versus CLUBB

This paper presents a satellite-observation-based evaluation of the marine boundary layer (MBL) cloud properties from two Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), simulations, one with the standard parameterization schemes (CAM5–Base) and the other with the Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals scheme (CAM5–CLUBB). When comparing the direct model outputs, the authors find that CAM5–CLUBB produces more MBL clouds, a smoother transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, and a tighter correlation between in-cloud water and cloud fraction than CAM5–Base. In the model-to-observation comparison using the COSP satellite simulators, the authors find that both simulations capture the main features and spatial patterns of the observed cloud fraction from MODIS and shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF) from CERES. However, CAM5–CLUBB suffers more than CAM5–Base from a problem that can be best summarized as “undetectable” clouds (i.e., a significant fraction of simulated MBL clouds are thinner than the MODIS detection threshold). This issue leads to a smaller COSP–MODIS cloud fraction and a weaker SWCF in CAM5–CLUBB than the observations and also CAM5–Base in the tropical descending regions. Finally, the authors compare modeled radar reflectivity with CloudSat observations and find that both simulations, especially CAM5–CLUBB, suffer from an excessive drizzle problem. Further analysis reveals that the subgrid precipitation enhancement factors in CAM5–CLUBB are unrealistically large, which makes MBL clouds precipitate too excessively, and in turn results in too many undetectable thin clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ionospheric Mapping with the GPS/MET

The GPS/MET experiment, which placed a GPS receiver in a low-Earth orbit tracking the GPS in an occultation geometry, has collected thousands of occultations since its launch in April of 1995. Each occultation can be inverted to give an electron density profile in the ionosphere, temperature and pressure profiles in the lower mesosphere, stratosphere and upper troposphere, and water vapor density profiles in the lower troposphere. This paper gives a summary of the ionospheric effects on the GPS/MET signal and examines some of the retrieved electron density profiles. We examine the bending induced by the ionosphere on the occulting signal and the resulting separation of the two GPS links corresponding to the L1 and L2 phase signals. We also examine the amplitude scintillation caused by sharp layers at the bottom of the ionosphere. We briefly describe the Abel inversion method for obtaining the index of refraction and show several examples of electron density profiles and comparisons derived from the Parameterized Ionospheric Model (PIM) and to incoherent scatter radar measurements.

GPS↗

Phase-field modeling of stored-energy-driven grain growth with intra-granular variation in dislocation density

Abstract We present a phase-field (PF) model to simulate the microstructure evolution occurring in polycrystalline materials with a variation in the intra-granular dislocation density. The model accounts for two mechanisms that lead to the grain boundary migration: the driving force due to capillarity and that due to the stored energy arising from a spatially varying dislocation density. In addition to the order parameters that distinguish regions occupied by different grains, we introduce dislocation density fields that describe spatial variation of the dislocation density. We assume that the dislocation density decays as a function of the distance the grain boundary has migrated. To demonstrate and parameterize the model, we simulate microstructure evolution in two dimensions, for which the initial microstructure is based on real-time experimental data. Additionally, we applied the model to study the effect of a cyclic heat treatment (CHT) on the microstructure evolution. Specifically, we simulated stored-energy-driven grain growth during three thermal cycles, as well as grain growth without stored energy that serves as a baseline for comparison. We showed that the microstructure evolution proceeded much faster when the stored energy was considered. A non-self-similar evolution was observed in this case, while a nearly self-similar evolution was found when the microstructure evolution is driven solely by capillarity. These results suggest a possible mechanism for the initiation of abnormal grain growth during CHT. Finally, we demonstrate an integrated experimental-computational workflow that utilizes the experimental measurements to inform the PF model and its parameterization, which provides a foundation for the development of future simulation tools capable of quantitative prediction of microstructure evolution during non-isothermal heat treatment.

Materials Science↗

A review on the relativistic effective field theory with parameterized couplings for nuclear matter and neutron stars

Nuclear science has developed many excellent theoretical models for many-body systems in the domain of the baryon-meson strong interaction for the nucleus and nuclear matter at low, medium and high densities. However, a full microscopic understanding of nuclear systems in the extreme density domain of compact stars is still lacking. The aim of this contribution is to shed some light on open questions facing the nuclear many-body problem at the very high density domain. Here we focus our attention on the conceptual issue of naturalness and its role in shaping the baryon-meson phase space dynamics in the description of the equation of state (EoS) of nuclear matter and neutrons stars. In particular, in order to stimulate possible new directions of research, we discuss relevant aspects of a recently developed relativistic effective theory for nuclear matter within Quantum Hadrodynamics (QHD) with genuine many-body forces and derivative natural parametric couplings. Among other topics we discuss in this work the connection of this theory with other known effective QHD models of the literature and its potentiality in describing a new physics for dense matter. The model with parameterized couplings exhausts the whole fundamental baryon octet (n, p, Σ{sup −}, Σ{sup 0}, Σ{sup +}, Λ, Ξ{sup −}, Ξ{sup 0}) and simulates n-order corrections to the minimal Yukawa baryon couplings by considering nonlinear self-couplings of meson fields and meson-meson interaction terms coupled to the baryon fields involving scalar-isoscalar (σ, σ∗), vector-isoscalar (ω, Φ), vector-isovector (ϱ) and scalar-isovector (δ) virtual sectors. Following recent experimental results, we consider in our calculations the extreme case where the Σ{sup −} experiences such a strong repulsion that its influence in the nuclear structure of a neutron star is excluded at all. A few examples of calculations of properties of neutron stars are shown and prospects for the future are discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Effects of random forest modeling decisions on biogeochemical time series predictions

Abstract Random forests (RF) are an increasingly popular machine learning approach used to model biogeochemical processes in the Earth system. While RF models are robust to many assumptions that complicate deterministic models, there are several important parameterization decisions for appropriate use and optimal model fit. We explored the role that parameter decisions, including training/testing data splitting strategies, variable selection, and hyperparameters play on RF goodness‐of‐fit by constructing models using 1296 unique parameter combinations to predict concentrations of nitrate, a key nutrient for biogeochemical cycling in aquatic ecosystems. Models were built on long‐term, publicly available water quality and meteorology time series collected by the National Estuarine Research Reserve monitoring network for two contrasting ecosystems representing freshwater and brackish estuaries. We found that accounting for temporal dependence when splitting data into training and testing subsets was key for avoiding over‐estimation of model predictive power. In addition, variable selection, the ratio of training to testing data, and to a lesser degree, variables per split and number of trees, were significant parameters for optimizing RF goodness‐of‐fit. We also explored how model parameter decisions influenced interpretation of the relative importance of predictors to the model, and model predictor‐dependent variable relationships, with results suggesting that both data structure and model parameterization influence these factors. Because much of the current RF literature is written for the computational and statistical science communities, the primary goal of this study is to provide guidelines for aquatic scientists new to machine learning to apply RF techniques appropriately to aquatic biogeochemical datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Polynomial Chaos–Based Bayesian Inference of K -Profile Parameterization in a General Circulation Model of the Tropical Pacific

The authors present a polynomial chaos (PC)–based Bayesian inference method for quantifying the uncertainties of the K-profile parameterization (KPP) within the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) of the tropical Pacific. The inference of the uncertain parameters is based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme that utilizes a newly formulated test statistic taking into account the different components representing the structures of turbulent mixing on both daily and seasonal time scales in addition to the data quality, and filters for the effects of parameter perturbations over those as a result of changes in the wind. To avoid the prohibitive computational cost of integrating the MITgcm model at each MCMC iteration, a surrogate model for the test statistic using the PC method is built. Because of the noise in the model predictions, a basis-pursuit-denoising (BPDN) compressed sensing approach is employed to determine the PC coefficients of a representative surrogate model. The PC surrogate is then used to evaluate the test statistic in the MCMC step for sampling the posterior of the uncertain parameters. Results of the posteriors indicate good agreement with the default values for two parameters of the KPP model, namely the critical bulk and gradient Richardson numbers; while the posteriors of the remaining parameters were barely informative.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Molecular thermodynamics for scaling prediction: Case of membrane distillation

Membrane distillation (MD) for water treatment is significantly impaired by the scaling of dissolved minerals. The type and content of minerals generally measured as total dissolved solids (TDS) in hypersaline brines not only reduce the MD flux but also control the scaling behavior on the membrane surface. The scaling-induced pore blockage further reduces water flux and eventually leads to membrane wetting. The scaling problem is even more pronounced in the treatment of produced water (PW) as it contains 3–7 times higher TDS concentrations, compared to seawater. Theoretically, the necessary conditions for a salt to precipitate can be traced from its solubility product constant and activity of the constituents within the solution. Therefore, a comprehensive thermodynamic model is necessary to represent the electrolyte behavior and to predict the precipitation of different salts in a complex solution like PW. We pursued electrolyte Nonrandom Two Liquid Theory (eNRTL), a state-of-the-art electrolyte model, to address the PW fluid phase equilibria. With a fully parameterized eNRTL model, we predicted salt precipitations in two different PW samples and compared the results against the experimental findings. Furthermore, here we forecast the precipitation of salts in response to the change in PW concentration and temperature in the MD operation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Characterizing the Influence of Fracture Density on Network Scale Transport

The topology of natural fracture networks is inherently linked to the structure of the fluid velocity field and transport therein. Here we study the impact of network density on flow and transport behaviors. We stochastically generate fracture networks of varying density and simulate flow and transport with a discrete fracture network model, which fully resolves network topology at the fracture scale. We study conservative solute trajectories with Lagrangian particle tracking and find that as fracture density decreases, solute channelization to large local fractures increases, thereby reducing plume spreading. Furthermore, in sparse networks mean particle travel distance increases and local network features, such as velocity zones where flow is counter to the primary pressure gradient, become increasingly important for transport. As the network density increases, network statistics homogenize and such local features have a reduced impact. We quantify local topological influence on transport behavior with an effective tortuosity parameter, which measures the ratio of total advective distance to linear distance at the fracture scale; large tortuosity values are correlated to slow-velocity regions. Additionally, these large tortuosity, slow-velocity regions delay downstream transport and enhance tailing on particle breakthrough curves. Finally, we predict transport with an upscaled, Bernoulli spatial Markov random walk model and parameterize local topological influences with a novel tortuosity parameter. Furthermore, Bernoulli model predictions improve when sampling from a tortuosity distribution, as opposed to a fixed value as has previously been done, suggesting that local network topological features must be carefully considered in upscaled modeling efforts of fracture network systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗