Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “mean”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 631 records · Page 35

Ab initio quantum scattering calculations and a new potential energy surface for the HCl( X 1Σ+)–O2(X3Σg−) system: Collision-induced line shape parameters for O2-perturbed R(0) 0–0 line in H35Cl

The remote sensing of abundance and properties of HCl—the main atmospheric reservoir of Cl atoms that directly participate in ozone depletion—is important for monitoring the partitioning of chlorine between “ozone-depleting” and “reservoir” species. Such remote studies require knowledge of the shapes of molecular resonances of HCl, which are perturbed by collisions with the molecules of the surrounding air. In this work, we report the first fully quantum calculations of collisional perturbations of the shape of a pure rotational line in H35Cl perturbed by an air-relevant molecule [as the first model system we choose the R(0) line in HCl perturbed by O2]. The calculations are performed on our new highly accurate HCl(X1Σ+)–O2(X3Σg−) potential energy surface. In addition to pressure broadening and shift, we also determine their speed dependencies and the complex Dicke parameter. This gives important input to the community discussion on the physical meaning of the complex Dicke parameter and its relevance for atmospheric spectra (previously, the complex Dicke parameter for such systems was mainly determined from phenomenological fits to experimental spectra and the physical meaning of its value in that context is questionable). We also calculate the temperature dependence of the line shape parameters and obtain agreement with the available experimental data. We estimate the total combined uncertainties of our calculations at 2% relative root-mean-square error in the simulated line shape at 296 K. This result constitutes an important step toward computational population of spectroscopic databases with accurate ab initio line shape parameters for molecular systems of terrestrial atmospheric importance.

Chemistry↗

Generalized spin σ -SCF method

We introduce a generalization of the σ-SCF method to approximate noncollinear spin ground and excited single-reference electronic states by minimizing the Hamiltonian variance. The new method is based on the σ-SCF method, originally proposed by Ye et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 147, 214104 (2017)], and provides a prescription to determine ground and excited noncollinear spin states on an equal footing. Our implementation was carried out utilizing an initial simulated annealing stage followed by a mean-field iterative self-consistent approach to simplify the cumbersome search introduced by generalizing the spin degrees of freedom. The simulated annealing stage ensures a broad exploration of the Hilbert space spanned by the generalized spin single-reference states with random complex element-wise rotations of the generalized density matrix elements in the simulated annealing stage. The mean-field iterative self-consistent stage employs an effective Fockian derived from the variance, which is utilized to converge tightly to the solutions. This process helps us to easily find complex spin structures, avoiding manipulating the initial guess. As proof-of-concept tests, we present results for Hn (n = 3–7) planar rings and polyhedral clusters with geometrical spin frustration. We show that most of these systems have noncollinear spin excited states that can be interpreted in terms of geometric spin frustration. These states are not directly targeted by energy minimization methods, which are meant to converge to the ground state. This stresses the capability of the σ-SCF methodology to find approximate noncollinear spin structures as mean-field excited states.

Chemistry↗

Shock compression of cemented tungsten carbides to 100 GPa: Structure of shock waves, Hugoniot relations, and strength

Plate impact experiments are conducted on cemented tungsten carbides (WC) with a 3.7 and 6.0 wt. % cobalt binder to better understand their dynamic, high-pressure response to 100 GPa. The measured wave profiles show propagation of steady structured waves. Standard impedance matching procedures are used to determine the Hugoniot relations in the shock velocity–particle velocity (U s –v p ) and Hugoniot stress–specific volume (P–V/V o ) planes. The Hugoniot elastic limit of the samples is controlled by ductility of the Co binder and is determined to be 4.45 ± 0.29 GPa for cemented WC with 3.7 wt. % cobalt and 3.72 ± 0.24 GPa for a 6.0 wt. % cobalt binder. Both grades show a non-linear U s –v p relationship depending on whether the particle velocity is in the strength dominated or hydrodynamic regime. In the strength dominated regime, a non-linear decrease in U s is observed as v p increases from ambient to the material’s hydrodynamic limit. In the hydrodynamic regime, the U s –v p Hugoniot is linear and is determined to be U s = 4.97(±0.006)+1.446(±0.018)v p km/s for WC with 3.7 wt. % Co and U s = 4.93(±0.006)+1.463(±0.017)v p km/s for 6 wt. % Co. Both WC grades indicate shear-stress hardening with mean stress immediately after yield, followed by pressure softening, and then a sharp fall in stress carrying capacity as the mean stress is increased to ≈70 GPa (hydrodynamic limit) and beyond. This behavior is in contrast to pure WC ceramics, which show continued shear-stress hardening with mean stress to ≈80 GPa.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hyperfine interactions for small systems including transition-metal elements using self-interaction corrected density-functional theory

The interactions between the electronic magnetic moment and the nuclear spin moment, i.e., magnetic hyperfine (HF) interactions, play an important role in understanding electronic properties of magnetic systems and in realizing platforms for quantum information science applications. We investigate the HF interactions for atomic systems and small molecules, including Ti or Mn, by using Fermi–Löwdin orbital (FLO) based self-interaction corrected (SIC) density-functional theory. We calculate the Fermi contact (FC) and spin-dipole terms for the systems within the local density approximation (LDA) in the FLO-SIC method and compare them with the corresponding values without SIC within the LDA and generalized-gradient approximation (GGA), as well as experimental data. For the moderately heavy atomic systems (atomic number Z ≤ 25), we find that the mean absolute error of the FLO-SIC FC term is about 27 MHz (percentage error is 6.4%), while that of the LDA and GGA results is almost double that. Therefore, in this case, the FLO-SIC results are in better agreement with the experimental data. For the non-transition-metal molecules, the FLO-SIC FC term has the mean absolute error of 68 MHz, which is comparable to both the LDA and GGA results without SIC. For the seven transition-metal-based molecules, the FLO-SIC mean absolute error is 59 MHz, whereas the corresponding LDA and GGA errors are 101 and 82 MHz, respectively. Therefore, for the transition-metal-based molecules, the FLO-SIC FC term agrees better with experiment than the LDA and GGA results. We observe that the FC term from the FLO-SIC calculation is not necessarily larger than that from the LDA or GGA for all the considered systems due to the core spin polarization, in contrast to the expectation that SIC would increase the spin density near atomic nuclei, leading to larger FC terms.

Chemistry↗

Magnetic reconnection and dynamos in the presence of plasma turbulence

Evolving magnetic fields are frequently embedded in plasmas that are turbulent. When the primary interest is in effects that are on a large scale compared to that of the turbulence, it is desirable to average over the turbulence to obtain equations for mean-field magnetohydrodynamics. An obvious constraint on the validity of the averaging is that large-scale quantities that evolve slowly using the exact evolution equations must remain slowly evolving in the mean-field theory. Magnetic helicity is the primary example of such a quantity, and maintaining its slow evolution has been controversial in mean-field magnetohydrodynamics. A full theory of magnetic reconnection in turbulent plasmas is not the intent of this paper. The intent is to show how exact results from Maxwell's equations explain why fast reconnection is so ubiquitous and what constraints these results place on the theory of magnetic field evolution, including dynamos, whether the plasma is turbulent or not. These constraints are commonly broken in the reconnection literature, which has been heavily influenced by two-dimensional theory that is not applicable to three-dimensional problems.

Boozer, Allen H. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (Un↗

Statistical moments of VIIRS night-time lights

Annual VIIRS global night-time lights traditionally report mean radiance levels after filtering to remove moonlit and cloudy data followed by outlier removal. The mean is the first statistical moment, but there are three other statistical moments (variance, skew and kurtosis) that are currently not produced globally. In this study, we generated VIIRS day/night band multiyear and annual statistical moments for a widely dispersed set of test areas. The moments were calculated from 15 arc second nightly temporal profiles spanning 2012-2020, filtered to exclude cloudy and sunlit data, with radiance adjustments to reduce view angle and lunar illuminance effects. The moment data were examined in two ways: (1) Geospatial grids-which reveal zonation and temporal changes present in urban areas and (2) Scattergrams of moment pairs. The variance versus mean scattergram exhibits several distinct data clusters used to define five zones: core lighting, dark-erratics, mid-erratics, bright-erratics and bright and seteady. The results indicate that the information content of VIIRS night-time lights can be augmented if all four statistical moments are calculated.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Mortality among Tennessee Eastman Corporation (TEC) uranium processing workers, 1943–2019

Background: There are few occupational studies of women exposed to ionizing radiation. During World War II, the Tennessee Eastman Corporation (TEC) operated an electromagnetic field separation facility of 1152 calutrons to obtain enriched uranium (235U) used for the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Thousands of women were involved in these operations. Materials and methods: We report a new study was conducted of 13,951 women and 12,699 men employed at TEC between 1943 and 1947 for at least 90 days. Comprehensive dose reconstruction techniques were used to estimate lung doses from the inhalation of uranium dust based on airborne measurements. Vital status through 2018/2019 was obtained from the National Death Index, Social Security Death Index, Tennessee death records and online public record databases. Analyses included standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Most workers were hourly (77.7%), white (95.6%), born before 1920 (58.3%), worked in dusty environments (57.0%), and had died (94.9%). Vital status was confirmed for 97.4% of the workers. Women were younger than men when first employed: mean ages 25.0 years and 33.0 years, respectively. The estimated mean absorbed dose to the lung was 32.7 mGy (max 1048 mGy) for women and 18.9 mGy (max 501 mGy) for men. The mean dose to thoracic lymph nodes (TLNs) was 127 mGy. Statistically significant SMRs were observed for lung cancer (SMR 1.25; 95% CI 1.19, 1.31; n = 1654), nonmalignant respiratory diseases (NMRDs) (1.23; 95% CI 1.19, 1.28; n = 2585), and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) (1.13; 95% CI 1.08, 1.18; n = 1945). For lung cancer, the excess relative rate (ERR) at 100 mGy (95% CI) was 0.01 (–0.10, 0.12; n = 652) among women, and –0.15 (–0.38, 0.07; n = 1002) among men based on a preferred model for men with lung doses <300 mGy. NMRD and non-Hodgkin lymphoma were not associated with estimated absorbed dose to the lung or TLN. Conclusions: There was little evidence that radiation increased the risk of lung cancer, suggesting that inhalation of uranium dust and the associated high-LET alpha particle exposure to lung tissue experienced over a few years is less effective in causing lung cancer than other types of exposures. There was no statistically significant difference in the lung cancer risk estimates between men and women. The elevation of certain causes of death such as CeVD is unexplained and will require additional scrutiny of workplace or lifestyle factors given that radiation is an unlikely contributor since only the lung and lymph nodes received appreciable dose.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

A comprehensive study of the radiative properties of NO—a first step toward a complete air opacity

Here, in this paper we propose a methodology to calculate the radiative properties of the diatomic molecular constituents of air, and utilize the present approach to model the radiative properties of nitrogen monoxide, NO. We also investigate the important physics involved in calculating accurate radiative quantities for air, such as the Planck and Rosseland mean opacities, and emission and absorption coefficients, as well as the couplings accounted for in rovibrational calculations. Complete active space self-consistent field multi-reference configuration interaction (CAS-MRCI) calculations were performed in order to model the NO X 2 Π, a 4 Π, b 4 Σ - , 1 2 Σ + , 2 2 Σ + , 3 2 Σ + , G 2 Σ - , B' 2 Δ, (C, B) 2 2 Π, (H', L) 3 2 Π, and 1 2 Φ adiabatic states, and calculate the respective molecular data. The γ X 2 Π - A 2 Σ + , ε X 2 Π - D 2 Σ + , β' X 2 Π - B' 2 Δ, '11 000 Å' A 2 Σ + - D 2 Σ + , 'infrared' X 2 Π - X 2 Π and X 2 Π - (C, B) 2 2 Π (δ and β) band systems are investigated in monochromatic spectra calculations, as well as the Ogawa a 4 Π - b 4 Σ - band and several other band systems. Several conclusions are drawn, such as the importance of including the Ogawa band, which has not been included in previous air radiative models or comprehensive line-list calculations, as well as the importance of performing coupled rovibrational line-list calculations in order to accurately calculate the Rosseland means. We also found that the additional band systems modeled here contribute significantly to the total Planck and Rosseland means.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Studies of laser stimulated photodetachment from nanoparticles for particle charge measurements

Determining nanoparticle charge is more challenging than that for microparticles due to change in the particle size during the synthesis substantial plasma property variations, and difficulties in visualizing individual particles, rendering conventional microparticle charge diagnostics ineffective in dusty plasma. In this work, we utilized laser-stimulated photodetachment (LSPD) to deduce the mean charge of nanoparticles. Nanoparticles were grown in an Ar/C 2 H 2 mixture using a capacitively coupled RF discharge and the LSPD induced changes in the electron current monitored by a cylindrical Langmuir probe. LSPD signals were obtained and analyzed across different dust growth phases. The prolonged decay of electron current pulses was attributed to the presence of residual negative ions, caused by the effective electrostatic trapping of these ions and the potential post—LSPD re-formation of new ones. The particle charge was estimated by combining the laser-stimulated photodetachment signal from the probe with the dust density obtained from laser-light extinction using the measured nanoparticle size distribution. For a nanoparticles size range of approximately 100–250 nm and mean diameter of $d$ p ∼154.37 nm, the effective mean charge was estimated to be $\langle$$Q$$\rangle$ d $≈$ 37 elementary charge units. The measured charge values are lower than those predicted by orbital motion limited theory, which may be attributed to significant electron depletion in the nanodusty plasma. LSPD results in Ar/C 2 H 2 nano-dusty plasma confirm the applicability of this method for estimating individual nanoparticle charges. However, it has also been demonstrated that electron detachment from residual background negative ions can influence the detachment current decay and must be carefully considered.

dust particle charge↗

The DESI One-Percent survey: exploring the Halo Occupation Distribution of Emission Line Galaxies with AbacusSummit simulations

The One-Percent survey of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument collected ~ 270k emission line galaxies (ELGs) at 0.8 < z < 1.6. The high completeness of the sample allowed the clustering to be measured down to scales never probed before, 0.04 Mpc/h in rp for the projected 2-point correlation function (2PCF) and 0.17 Mpc/h in galaxy pair separation s for the 2PCF monopole and quadrupole. The most striking feature of the measurements is a strong signal at the smallest scales, below 0.2 Mpc/h in rp and 1 Mpc/h in s. We analyse these data in the halo occupation distribution framework. We consider different distributions for central galaxies, a standard power law for satellites with no condition on the presence of a central galaxy and explore several extensions of these models. For all considered models, the mean halo mass of the sample is found to be log10 $\langle$Mh$\rangle$ ~ 11.9. We obtain a satellite mean occupation function which agrees with physically motivated ELG models only if we introduce central-satellite conformity, meaning that the satellite occupation is conditioned by the presence of central galaxies of the same type. To achieve in addition a good modelling of the clustering between 0.1 and 1 Mpc/h in rp, we allow for ELG positioning outside of the halo virial radius and find 0.5% of ELGs residing in the outskirts of halos. Furthermore, the satellite velocity dispersion inside halos is found to be ~ 30% larger than that of the halo dark matter particles. These are the main findings of our work. Here we investigate assembly bias as a function of halo concentration, local density or local density anisotropies and observe no significant change in our results. We split the data sample in two redshift bins and report no significant evolution with redshift. Lastly, changing the cosmology in the modelling impacts only slightly our results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mass calibration of DES Year-3 clusters via SPT-3G CMB cluster lensing

We measure the stacked lensing signal in the direction of galaxy clusters in the DarkEnergy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) redMaPPer sample, using cosmic microwave background (CMB)temperature data from SPT-3G, the third-generation CMB camera on the South PoleTelescope (SPT). Here, we estimate the lensing signal using temperature maps constructed fromthe initial 2 years of data from the SPT-3G 'Main' survey, covering 1500 deg$^{2}$ of the Southernsky. We then use this lensing signal as a proxy for the mean cluster mass of the DES sample. Thethermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) signal, which can contaminate the lensing signal if notaddressed, is isolated and removed from the data before obtaining the mass measurement. In thiswork, we employ three versions of the redMaPPer catalogue: a Flux-Limited sample containing 8865clusters, a Volume-Limited sample with 5391 clusters, and a Volume&Redshift-Limited sample with4450 clusters. For the three samples, we detect the CMB lensing signal at a significance of12.4σ, 10.5σ and 10.2σ and find the mean cluster masses to be M$_{200m}$ = 1.66±0.13 [stat.]± 0.03 [sys.], 1.97±0.18 [stat.]± 0.05 [sys.],and 2.11±0.20 [stat.]± 0.05 [sys.]×10$^{14}$ M$_{⊙}$, respectively. Thisis a factor of ∼ 2 improvement relative to the precision of measurements with previousgenerations of SPT surveys and the most constraining cluster mass measurements using CMB clusterlensing to date. Overall, we find no significant tensions between our results and masses given byredMaPPer mass-richness scaling relations of previous works, which were calibrated using CMBcluster lensing, optical weak lensing, and velocity dispersion measurements from variouscombinations of DES, SDSS and Planck data. We then divide our sample into 3 redshift and 3richness bins, finding no significant discrepancies with optical weak-lensing calibrated masses inthese bins. We forecast a 5.7% constraint on the mean cluster mass of the DES Y3 sample withthe complete SPT-3G surveys when using both temperature and polarization data and including anadditional ∼ 1400 deg$^{2}$ of observations from the 'Extended' SPT-3G survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Close Major-merger Pairs at z = 0: Star-forming Galaxies with Pseudobulges

Abstract We present a study of star-forming galaxies (SFGs) with pseudobulges (bulges with Sérsic indexn< 2) in a local close major-merger galaxy pair sample (H-KPAIR). With data from new aperture photometries in the optical and near-infrared bands (aperture size of 7 kpc) and from the literature, we find that the mean Age of central stellar populations in Spirals with pseudobulges is consistent with that of disky galaxies and is nearly constant against the bulge-to-total ratio (B/T). Paired Spirals have a slightly lower fraction of pure disk galaxies (B/T ≤ 0.1) than their counterparts in the control sample. Compared to SFGs with classical bulges, those with pseudobulges have a higher (>2σ) mean of specific star formation rate (sSFR) enhancement (sSFR enh = 0.33 ± 0.07 versus sSFR enh = 0.12 ± 0.06) and broader scatter (by ∼1 dex). The eight SFGs that have the highest sSFR enh in the sample all have pseudobulges. A majority (69%) of paired SFGs with strong enhancement (having sSFR more than 5 times the median of the control galaxies) have pseudobulges. The Spitzer data show that the pseudobulges in these galaxies are tightly linked to nuclear/circum-nuclear starbursts. Pseudobulge SFGs in S+S and in S+E pairs have significantly (>3σ) different sSFR enhancement, with the means of sSFR enh = 0.45 ± 0.08 and −0.04 ± 0.11, respectively. We find a decrease in the sSFR enhancements with the density of the environment for SFGs with pseudobulges. Since a high fraction (5/11) of pseudobulge SFGs in S+E pairs are in rich groups/clusters (local density N 1Mpc ≥ 7), the dense environment might be the cause for their low sSFR enh .

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability

Monsoons affect the economy, agriculture, and human health of two thirds of the world’s population. Therefore, predicting variations in monsoon precipitation is societally important. We explore the ability of climate models from the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project to predict summer monsoon precipitation variability by using hindcasts from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (Component A). The multi-model ensemble-mean shows significant skill at predicting summer monsoon precipitation from one year to 6–9 years ahead. However, this skill is dependent on the model, monsoon domain, and lead-time. In general, the skill of the multi-model ensemble-mean prediction is low in year 1 but increases for longer-lead times and is largely consistent with externally forced changes. The best captured region is northern Africa for the 2–5 and 6–9 year forecast lead times. In contrast, there is no significant skill using the ensemble-mean over East and South Asia and, furthermore, there is significant spread in skill among models for these domains. By sub-sampling the ensemble we show that the difference in skill between models is tied to the simulation of the externally forced response over East and South Asia, with models with a more skilful forced response capable of better predictions. A further contribution is from skilful prediction of Pacific Ocean temperatures for the South Asian summer monsoon at longer lead-times. Therefore, these results indicate that predictions of the East and South Asian monsoons could be significantly improved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Local-scale heterogeneity of soil thermal dynamics and controlling factors in a discontinuous permafrost region

In permafrost regions, the strong spatial and temporal variability in soil temperature cannot be explained by the weather forcing only. Understanding the local heterogeneity of soil thermal dynamics and their controls is essential to understand how permafrost systems respond to climate change and to develop process-based models or remote sensing products for predicting soil temperature. In this study, we analyzed soil temperature dynamics and their controls in a discontinuous permafrost region on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. We acquired one-year temperature time series at multiple depths (at 5 or 10 cm intervals up to 85 cm depth) at 45 discrete locations across a 2.3 km 2 watershed. We observed a larger spatial variability in winter temperatures than that in summer temperatures at all depths, with the former controlling most of the spatial variability in mean annual temperatures. We also observed a strong correlation between mean annual ground temperature at a depth of 85 cm and mean annual or winter season ground surface temperature across the 45 locations. We demonstrate that soils classified as cold, intermediate, or warm using hierarchical clustering of full-year temperature data closely match their co-located vegetation (graminoid tundra, dwarf shrub tundra, and tall shrub tundra, respectively). We show that the spatial heterogeneity in soil temperature is primarily driven by spatial heterogeneity in snow cover, which induces variable winter insulation and soil thermal diffusivity. These effects further extend to the subsequent summer by causing variable latent heat exchanges. Finally, we discuss the challenges of predicting soil temperatures from snow depth and vegetation height alone by considering the complexity observed in the field data and reproduced in a model sensitivity analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal stress in degraded forests in the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation

Understanding thermal stress in tropical forests has taken on new urgency in light of accelerating climate change and expansion of deforestation and forest degradation. Degraded tropical forests in particular may be approaching critical temperature thresholds even more rapidly than intact forests, with implications for tree survival and ecosystem recovery. We investigate thermal stress in degraded tropical forests within the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation. Using land surface temperature data from the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on the international Space Station (ECOSTRESS), we compared canopy temperatures of intact, selectively logged, and burned forests in Feliz Natal, Mato Grosso, Brazil. Upper canopy temperatures in previously burned forests were 4.1% higher (mean = 36.5 °C) and 50.9% more variable compared to intact and logged forests, which showed remarkably similar temperature distributions (means of 34.9 °C and 35.1 °C, respectively). Modeled leaf temperature distributions based on canopy temperature measurements from one of the warmest days in a 2 year dry season record indicated that 87% of leaves in the warmest burned forest patches exceeded the temperature threshold where respiration surpasses photosynthesis, compared to approximately 72%–74% in intact and logged forests, respectively, in the same time period. After controlling for environmental factors, burned forests were predicted to be 2.6 °C warmer on average [1.39 °C–3.96 °C, 95% credible interval] than intact forests across a 5–40 m canopy height range. Burned forests showed modest thermal recovery over time, with temperatures decreasing by approximately 1.2 °C over a 30 year recovery period. In contrast, logged forests showed minimal thermal differences from intact forests (−0.353 on average, [−1.125–0.274, 95% credible interval]) and negligible change (0.15 °C) over the same timeframe. While the absolute probabilities of exceeding damaging thermal thresholds remain low across all forest types under current climate conditions, the probability of leaves exceeding temperatures that cause permanent leaf damage was ten times higher in burned forests, with implications for the future of burned forest regeneration in water-limited regions of the Amazon basin. In particular, the combination of higher mean temperatures, greater temperature variability, and more frequent exposure to damaging thermal thresholds implies that burned tropical forests will experience substantially higher mortality rates and slower biomass recovery compared to intact and selectively logged forests, especially in water-limited regions where trees cannot rely on evaporative cooling to moderate canopy temperatures.

Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation↗

Attribution of the record-high 2023 SST using a deep-learning framework

Abstract The global-mean sea surface temperature (SST) reached a record high in 2023, exceeding the 2016 record by 0.14 °C. This unprecedented change in global-mean SST has major implications for our understanding of internal variability and the forced response in our changing climate. In this work, we use neural networks trained on simulated climate data to separate the contributions of internal variability and the forced response within observations. Performing attribution reveals that internal variability was responsible for +0.07 °C of the 2023 global mean SST, due to anomalously warm conditions in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. Furthermore, these results provide a line of evidence for accelerated forced warming in recent years. Continued monitoring of the climate will be critical for understanding the drivers behind this unprecedented SST record.

Rader, Jamin K. (ORCID:0000000222045977)↗

Younger facial looks are associate with a lower likelihood of several age-related morbidities in the middle-aged to elderly

Abstract Background Looking older for one’s chronological age is associated with a higher mortality rate. Yet it remains unclear how perceived facial age relates to morbidity and the degree to which facial ageing reflects systemic ageing of the human body. Objectives To investigate the association between ΔPA and age-related morbidities of different organ systems, where ΔPA represents the difference between perceived age (PA) and chronological age. Methods We performed a cross-sectional analysis on data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study in the Netherlands. High-resolution facial photographs of 2679 men and women aged 51.5–87.8 years of European descent were used to assess PA. PA was estimated and scored in 5-year categories using these photographs by a panel of men and women who were blinded for chronological age and medical history. A linear mixed model was used to generate the mean PAs. The difference between the mean PA and chronological age was calculated (ΔPA), where a higher (positive) ΔPA means that the person looks younger for their age and a lower (negative) ΔPA that the person looks older. ΔPA was tested as a continuous variable for association with ageing-related morbidities including cardiovascular, pulmonary, ophthalmological, neurocognitive, renal, skeletal and auditory morbidities in separate regression analyses, adjusted for age and sex (model 1) and additionally for body mass index, smoking and sun exposure (model 2). Results We observed 5-year higher ΔPA (i.e. looking younger by 5 years for one’s age) to be associated with less osteoporosis [odds ratio (OR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62–0.93], less chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.77–0.95), less age-related hearing loss (model 2; B = −0.76, 95% CI −1.35 to −0.17) and fewer cataracts (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.73–0.97), but with better global cognitive functioning (g-factor; model 2; B = 0.07, 95% CI 0.04–0.10). Conclusions PA is associated with multiple morbidities and better cognitive function, suggesting that systemic ageing and cognitive ageing are, to an extent, externally visible in the human face.

Mekić, Selma↗

Detailed space–time variations of the seismic response of the shallow crust to small earthquakes from analysis of dense array data

SUMMARY We compute high-resolution space–time variations of subsurface seismic properties from autocorrelation functions (ACF’s) of noise and local earthquakes, recorded by the Sage Brush Flat dense array deployed around the Clark branch of the San Jacinto fault. The resolved temporal changes are referred to as apparent velocity changes because they reflect both nonlinear response and variations of material properties such as cracking and damage. Apparent velocity changes are estimated at four frequency bands (10–15, 10–20, 15–30 and 20–40 Hz) for two local earthquake data sets. In one analysis, ACF’s from P- and S-wave windows of 31 small events with magnitudes below 3.1 are used to compute the apparent velocity variations with respect to the mean ACF of each phase, and we also use the mean ACF of noise data as reference to estimate the changes. In a further analysis, the temporal evolution of properties is computed using moving time windows in continuous waveform over one-hour long data with noise and earthquake signals. The apparent velocity changes and recovery times are frequency dependent and present a strong spatial variability across the array. The resolved changes are larger and recovery time shorter with data associated with higher frequencies. At frequencies larger than 15 Hz, and using the mean ACF of noise data as a reference, the apparent average velocity changes across the array during the passage of the P and S waves from the small local events are 2.5 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively. The apparent velocity changes decrease by one order of magnitude when the earthquake data are used as a reference. The relatively large changes in response to very low ground motion have important implications on nonlinear processes involving degradation and healing of the subsurface material during common earthquake shaking.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗