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At least 631 records · Page 35

A structural model of the long-term degradation of the concrete biological shield

The concrete biological shield (CBS) of light water reactors is exposed to high neutron radiation dose in the long term, which may lead to the degradation of the concrete’s mechanical properties. Given the important shielding role of the CBS, it is necessary to investigate the irradiation effects at the structural scale and provide estimates of the damage extent from the wall’s inner surface to study potential license renewals. For this purpose, we developed a mechanical model accounting for radiation-induced expansion, creep, and damage in concrete using the Grizzly finite element code, informed by ex-core neutron flux calculations using the VERA tool. The model was applied to a 3D CBS structure represented by the CBS wall, a steel liner, reinforcement bars, and a concrete base mat and evaluated damage at 40, 60, and 80 years of operation. The VERA model predicted a maximum fluence of approximately 2 x 10 19 ncm -2 at 80 years of operation. The results showed that damage is highest at the inner surface of the CBS wall and gradually decreases with depth. It extends beyond the rebar after 60 years and reaches a depth of approximately 12 cm at 80 years.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Biogeochemical Controls on the Potential for Long-Term Contaminant Leaching from Soils Developing on Historic Coal Mine Spoil

Coal mine spoil is widespread in US coal mining regions, and the potential long-term leaching of toxic metal(loid)s is a significant and underappreciated issue. This study aimed to determine the flux of contaminants from historic mine coal spoil at a field site located in Appalachian Ohio (USA) and link pore water composition and solid-phase composition to the weathering reaction stages within the soils. The overall mineralogical and microbial community composition indicates that despite very different soil formation pathways, soils developing on historic coal mine spoil and an undisturbed soil are currently dominated by similar mineral weathering reactions. Both soils contained pyrite coated with clays and secondary oxide minerals. However, mine spoil soil contained abundant residual coal, with abundant Fe- and Mn- (oxy)hydroxides. These secondary phases likely control and mitigate trace metal (Cu, Ni, and Zn) transport from the soils. While Mn was highly mobile in Mn-enriched soils, Fe and Al mobility may be more controlled by dissolved organic carbon dynamics than mineral abundance. There is also likely an underappreciated risk of Mn transport from coal mine spoil, and that mine spoil soils could become a major source of metals if local biogeochemical conditions change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The detection and interpretation of long-term atmospheric change: Tasks in association with the shuttle solar backscatter ultraviolet spectral radiometer

The objectives are to develop techniques to detect and remove long-term instrument drifts from the operational Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV/2) data base using periodic measurements made by the Shuttle Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Spectral Radiometer and to evaluate the potential effects of scattering by atmospheric aerosols on our ability to detect trends in ozone using SBUV-class instruments.

Frederick, John E.↗

Long-term trends in the concentrations of SF6, CHClF2, and COF2 in the lower stratosphere from analysis of high-resolution infrared solar occultation spectra

Long-term trends in the concentrations of SF6, CHClF2 in the lower stratosphere are derived using results from analyses of the 1980 and of several more recently obtained IR solar occultation spectra. Results show that the increase rates of SF6 and CHClF2 were about 7.4/yr and 9.4/yr, respectively, which correspond to cumulative increases by factors of about 1.7 and 2.0 in the concentrations of these gases over the 7.2 yr measurement period. The average increase rate for COF2 was 10.3/yr over the same time period. The present results are compared with previously reported observations and trends and with one-dimensional model calculations.

Rinsland, C. P.↗

Long-Term Trends in the Concentrations of SF6, CHClF2, and COF2 in the Lower Stratosphere from Analysis of High-Resolution Infrared Solar Occultation Spectra

Long-term trends in the concentrations of SF6, CHClF2 (CFC-22), and COF2 in the lower stratosphere have been derived from analysis of ca. 1980 and more recent infrared solar occultation spectra recorded near 32 deg N latitude at approx. 0.02/ cm resolution. Consistent sets of line parameters and spectral calibration methods have been used in the retrievals to minimize systematic error effects. Quoted error limits are 1 sigma estimated precisions. The SF6 and CHClF2 results are based on spectra recorded by balloon-borne interferometers in March 1981 and June 1988 and a comparison of these results with the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) Experiment/Spacelab 3 measurements obtained in May 1985 near 30 deg N latitude. In the 13-18 km altitude range the mean measured SF6 mixing ratio in parts per trillion by volume (pptv) increased from 1.17 +/- 0.21 in March 1981 to 2.02 +/- 0.20 pptv in June 1988, and the CHClF2 mixing ratio below 15 km altitude increased from 51 +/- 8 pptv in March 1981 to 102 +/- 10 pptv in June 1988. The CHClF2 retrievals used new empirical CHClF2 line parameters derived from 0.03/cm resolution laboratory spectra recorded at six temperatures between 203 and 293 K; the derived mixing ratios are approx. 30% higher than obtained with earlier sets of line parameters, thereby removing a large discrepancy noted previously between IR and in situ measurements of CHClF2. Assuming an exponential growth model for fitting the trends, SF6 and CHClF2 mean increase rates of 7.4% +/- 1.9% and 9.4% +/- 1.3% /year, are obtained, respectively, which correspond to cumulative increases by factors of approx. 1.7 and -2.0 in the concentrations of these gases over the 7.2-year measurement period. Analysis of spectra recorded in October 1979 and April 1989 yields COF2 volume mixing ratios that are respectively 0.44 +/- 0.17 and 1.21 +/- 0.24 times the ATMOS/Spacelab 3 values, from which an average COF2 increase rate of 10.3 +/- 1.8%/ year over this time period has been estimated. The present results are compared with previously reported observations and trends and with one-dimensional model calculations. The model calculated trends are in reasonably good agreement with the observations.

Rinsland, C. P.↗

Hydrologic connectivity and dynamics of solute transport in a mountain stream: Insights from a long-term tracer test and multiscale transport modeling informed by machine learning

The movement of solutes in a watershed is a complex process with multiple interactions and feedbacks across spatial and temporal scales. Modeling the dynamics of solute transport along diverse hydrologic pathways within watersheds – from hillslopes to stream channels and in and out of the hyporheic zones – is challenging but critically important, as these processes integrate and contribute to the biogeochemical functioning of the river corridor up to the river network scale. Here we use results from a long-term network-scale tracer test at the H.J. Andrews experimental forest in western Cascade Mountains, Oregon, USA to inform a multiscale framework for transport in stream corridors. The framework uses a Lagrangian-based subgrid model to represent the effects of hyporheic exchange flow and advective transport at stream network scales. The spatially and temporally resolved stream discharge needed for the transport model is imputed across the river system by an entity-aware long short-term memory network. Modeled concentrations show good agreements with the observations and exhibit power scaling laws indicative of a very wide range of timescales over which hyporheic exchange flow occurs. Our results demonstrate a data-informed modeling framework that links dynamical processes occurring at small scales to a network context to help understand how changes at reach scale cascade into network-scale effects, providing a useful tool for sustainable river basin management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Degradation of impact toughness in cast stainless steels during long-term thermal aging

Cast austenitic stainless steels (CASSs) have been extensively used for the large components of nuclear reactor primary coolant systems. Since the cast steels inevitably contain degradable metastable phases and replacement of the large coolant system components is impractical, the thermal embrittlement of CASS components has been a serious concern in the extended-term operation of nuclear power plants. This study aimed to systematically measure and analyze the effect of long-term thermal aging on the Charpy impact toughness to provide a comprehensive understanding of thermal degradation behavior and a practical aging model to predict the degree of thermal degradation in the cast stainless steels. Additionally, the materials tested in the research include eight CASS alloys (two CF3s, one CF3M, three CF8s, and two CF8Ms) and two reference wrought materials (304L and 316L), in which the nominal δ-ferrite content ranges from ~2% to 33%. These stainless steels have been thermally aged at two light water reactor (LWR) temperatures (290 and 330 °C) and at two accelerated-aging temperatures (360 and 400 °C) for up to 30,000 h; these include both under-aged and over-aged conditions relative to the extended service lifetime (80 years). Charpy impact testing was performed for aged and non-aged specimens, and the impact (absorbed) energy parameters were correlated with a new aging parameter (A). Both the reduction of impact fracture toughness and the shift of ductile-brittle transition temperature were strongly dependent on the δ-ferrite content and degree of thermal aging. A linear relationship was found between the increasing rate of the index transition temperature T 41J and aging parameter A; base on which an empirical model was proposed for prediction of the transition temperature as a simple function of the aging parameter (A) and δ-ferrite content (F). Finally, the critical aging parameter for embrittlement (AC) was evaluated and compared with the existing δ-ferrite content criteria.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Mechanochemical formation of highly stable amorphous calcium carbonate in calcium silicates: Potential long-term storage of CO 2 in cement

Here, we have investigated mechanochemical reactions with the calcium silicate wollastonite to probe potential mechanisms of sequestration and long-term storage of CO 2 as mineral carbonates in cement pastes. Wollastonite, CaSiO 3 , was milled under ambient and 13 C enriched CO 2 atmospheres. Milling induced a structure change from monoclinic wollastonite-2M to triclinic-1T, consistent with high pressure treatment. The results from solid-state 13 C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy shows this process forms an extraordinarily stable amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC) phase that remains despite a high temperature dehydration treatment (130 °C) and persists in the same form after 3 yrs. of storage at ambient conditions. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) of these samples indicates that ACC is produced at the similar solid concentrations in both CO 2 -enriched and ambient atmospheres. The observation of meta-stable ACC due to wollastonite carbonation may play an important role in further exploration and optimization of mineral carbonation reactions for CO 2 capturing cement formulations.

13C solid-state NMR↗

Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions

We address the challenge, due to sparse observational records, of investigating long-term changes in the storm surge climate globally. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database and assess trends in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm surge events at 320 tide gauges across the globe from 1930, 1950, and 1980 to present. Before calculating trends, we perform change point analysis to identify and remove data where inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalysis products could lead to spurious trends in the storm surge data. Even after removing unreliable data, the database still extends existing storm surge records by several decades for most of the tide gauges. Storm surges derived from the centennial 20CR and ERA-20C atmospheric reanalyses show consistently significant positive trends along the southern North Sea and the Kattegat Bay regions during the periods from 1930 and 1950 onwards and negative trends since 1980 period. When comparing all five storm surge reconstructions and observations for the overlapping 1980–2010 period we find overall good agreement, but distinct differences along some coastlines, such as the Bay of Biscay and Australia. We also assess changes in the frequency of extreme surges and find that the number of annual exceedances above the 95th percentile has increased since 1930 and 1950 in several regions such as Western Europe, Kattegat Bay, and the US East Coast.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

On the Correspondence between Seasonal Forecast Biases and Long-Term Climate Biases in Sea Surface Temperature

In this paper, the correspondence between mean sea surface temperature (SST) biases in retrospective seasonal forecasts (hindcasts) and long-term climate simulations from five global climate models is examined to diagnose the degree to which systematic SST biases develop on seasonal time scales. The hindcasts are from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble and the climate simulations are from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The analysis suggests that most robust climatological SST biases begin to form within 6 months of a realistically initialized integration, although the growth rate varies with location, time, and model. In regions with large biases, interannual variability and ensemble spread is much smaller than the climatological bias. Additional ensemble hindcasts of the Community Earth System Model with a different initialization method suggest that initial conditions do matter for the initial bias growth, but the overall global bias patterns are similar after 6 months. A hindcast approach is more suitable to study biases over the tropics and sub-tropics than over the extra-tropics because of smaller initial biases and faster bias growth. The rapid emergence of SST biases makes it likely that fast processes with times scales shorter than the seasonal time scales in the atmosphere and upper ocean are responsible for a substantial part of the climatological SST biases. Studying the growth of biases may provide important clues to the causes and ultimately the amelioration of these biases. Further, initialized seasonal hindcasts can profitably be used in the development of high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metastability and Long-Term Degradation in CIGS Devices: Effect of Alkali Treatments, Back Contact and Emitter Layers

Thin-film solar cell technologies often suffer from metastable and long-term performance degradation, which may or may not be reversible. The presence of the transient or degradation issues pose challenges for energy-yield prediction in the field for these technologies. Cu(In,Ga)(S,Se) 2 solar cells are a promising thin-film technology, however, the underlying mechanisms of instability in these devices are not well understood. The most common mechanism of metastability in CIGS solar cells has been speculated to be the configuration changes of (VSe-VCu) divacancy complex. However, the role of metastability in light soaking behavior and the effect of alkali treatments and buffer layers is not understood. The goal of the current project is to understand the effect of alkali treatments and buffer materials on metastability and light soaking behavior and develop a device model to simulate experimental results. Input parameters are taken from literature or derived from first-principle calculations, and are fine-tuned through validation experiments.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The long term variability of HDE 226868 = Cygnus X-1

Investigation of blue-sensitive photographs of HDE 226868 = Cygnus X-1 reveal no (+ or - 0.06 mag) long-term changes in brightness since the beginning of the century nor any abrupt intensity changes similar to what was observed at X-ray and radio frequencies. From the double sinusoidal fluctuation with 5.6 day period, an attempt is made to derive a more precise value for the orbital period, but problems are encountered and discussed. There exists evidence that the amplitude of the orbital fluctuations is increasing slowly with time.

Liller, W.↗

Future Flight Opportunities and Calibration Protocols for CERES: Continuation of Observations in Support of the Long-Term Earth Radiation Budget Climate Data Record

The goal of the Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project is to provide a long-term record of radiation budget at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), within the atmosphere, and at the surface with consistent cloud and aerosol properties at climate accuracy. CERES consists of an integrated instrument-algorithm validation science team that provides development of higher-level products (Levels 1-3) and investigations. It involves a high level of data fusion, merging inputs from 25 unique input data sources to produce 18 CERES data products. Over 90% of the CERES data product volume involves two or more instruments. Continuation of the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) Climate Data Record (CDR) has been identified as critical in the 2007 NRC Decadal Survey, the Global Climate Observing System WCRP report, and in an assessment titled Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on Joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals . Five CERES instruments have flown on three different spacecraft: TRMM, EOS-Terra and EOS-Aqua. In response, NASA, NOAA and NPOESS have agreed to fly the existing CERES Flight Model (FM-5) on the NPP spacecraft in 2011 and to procure an additional CERES Sensor with modest upgrades for flight on the JPSS C1 spacecraft in 2014, followed by a CERES follow-on sensor for flight in 2018. CERES is a scanning broadband radiometer that measures filtered radiance in the SW (0.3-5 m), total (TOT) (0.3-200 m) and WN (8-12 m) regions. Pre-launch calibration is performed on each Flight Model to meet accuracy requirements of 1% for SW and 0.5% for outgoing LW observations. Ground to flight or in-flight changes are monitored using protocols employing onboard and vicarious calibration sources. Studies of flight data show that SW response can change dramatically due to optical contamination. with greatest impact in blue-to UV radiance, where tungsten lamps are largely devoid of output. While science goals remain unchanged for ERB Climate Data Record, it is now understood that achieving these goals is more difficult for two reasons. The first is an increased understanding of the dynamics of the Earth/atmosphere system which demonstrates that separation of natural variability from anthropogenic change on decadal time scales requires observations with higher accuracy and stabilit

Priestley, Kory J.↗