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NASA NTRS1999

Adaptive Error Estimation in Linearized Ocean General Circulation Models

Data assimilation methods are routinely used in oceanography. The statistics of the model and measurement errors need to be specified a priori. This study addresses the problem of estimating model and measurement error statistics from observations. We start by testing innovation based methods of adaptive error estimation with low-dimensional models in the North Pacific (5-60 deg N, 132-252 deg E) to TOPEX/POSEIDON (TIP) sea level anomaly data, acoustic tomography data from the ATOC project, and the MIT General Circulation Model (GCM). A reduced state linear model that describes large scale internal (baroclinic) error dynamics is used. The methods are shown to be sensitive to the initial guess for the error statistics and the type of observations. A new off-line approach is developed, the covariance matching approach (CMA), where covariance matrices of model-data residuals are "matched" to their theoretical expectations using familiar least squares methods. This method uses observations directly instead of the innovations sequence and is shown to be related to the MT method and the method of Fu et al. (1993). Twin experiments using the same linearized MIT GCM suggest that altimetric data are ill-suited to the estimation of internal GCM errors, but that such estimates can in theory be obtained using acoustic data. The CMA is then applied to T/P sea level anomaly data and a linearization of a global GFDL GCM which uses two vertical modes. We show that the CMA method can be used with a global model and a global data set, and that the estimates of the error statistics are robust. We show that the fraction of the GCM-T/P residual variance explained by the model error is larger than that derived in Fukumori et al.(1999) with the method of Fu et al.(1993). Most of the model error is explained by the barotropic mode. However, we find that impact of the change in the error statistics on the data assimilation estimates is very small. This is explained by the large representation error, i.e. the dominance of the mesoscale eddies in the T/P signal, which are not part of the 21 by 1" GCM. Therefore, the impact of the observations on the assimilation is very small even after the adjustment of the error statistics. This work demonstrates that simult&neous estimation of the model and measurement error statistics for data assimilation with global ocean data sets and linearized GCMs is possible. However, the error covariance estimation problem is in general highly underdetermined, much more so than the state estimation problem. In other words there exist a very large number of statistical models that can be made consistent with the available data. Therefore, methods for obtaining quantitative error estimates, powerful though they may be, cannot replace physical insight. Used in the right context, as a tool for guiding the choice of a small number of model error parameters, covariance matching can be a useful addition to the repertory of tools available to oceanographers.

Chechelnitsky, Michael Y.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Observations of the earth's polar cleft at large radial distances with the Hawkeye 1 magnetometer

Based on 364 spacecraft passes through the dayside region, the position of the polar cleft at large radial distances was determined with the magnetometer flown on Hawkeye 1. This data set is ideal for the study of the cusp and cleft region. Identification of the cleft depended on noting strong negative deviations of the magnetic field strength in the region from that of the dipole field. In solar magnetic coordinates, cleft observations were found between 40 deg and 70 deg latitude and + or - 75 deg latitude and + or - 75 deg longitude, while in geocentricmagnetospheric coordinates, these observations were found between 20 deg and 75 deg latitude and + or - 75 deg longitude. The extreme longitudinal extent of 150 deg is larger than those reported in some previous studies. Large magnetic depressions associated with the cleft extend out to 12 earth radii.

Farrell, W. M.↗

NASA NTRS2022

A New Machine Learning Based Analysis for Improving Satellite Retrieved Atmospheric Composition Data: OMI SO2 as an Example

Despite recent progress, satellite retrievals of anthropogenic SO2 still suffer from relatively low signal-tonoise ratios. In this study, we demonstrate a new machine learning data analysis method to improve the quality of satellite SO2 products. In the absence of large ground-truth datasets for SO2, we start from SO2 slant column densities (SCDs) retrieved from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) using a data-driven, physically based algorithm and calculate the ratio between the SCD and the root mean square (rms) of the fitting residuals for each pixel. To build the training data, we select presumably clean pixels with small SCD / rms ratios (SRRs) and set their target SCDs to zero. For polluted pixels with relatively large SRRs, we set the target to the original retrieved SCDs. We then train neural networks (NNs) to reproduce the target SCDs using predictors including SRRs for individual pixels, solar zenith, viewing zenith and phase angles, scene reflectivity, and O3 column amounts, as well as the monthly mean SRRs. For data analysis, we employ two NNs: (1) one trained daily to produce analyzed SO2 SCDs for polluted pixels each day and (2) the other trained once every month to produce analyzed SCDs for less polluted pixels for the entire month. Test results for 2005 show that our method can significantly reduce noise and artifacts over background regions. Over polluted areas, the monthly mean NN-analyzed and original SCDs generally agree to within ±15 %, indicating that our method can retain SO2 signals in the original retrievals except for large volcanic eruptions. This is further confirmed by running both the NN-analyzed and original SCDs through a topdown emission algorithm to estimate the annual SO2 emissions for ∼ 500 anthropogenic sources, with the two datasets yielding similar results. We also explore two alternative approaches to the NN-based analysis method. In one, we employ a simple linear interpolation model to analyze the original SCD retrievals. In the other, we develop a PCA–NN algorithm that uses OMI measured radiances, transformed and dimension-reduced with a principal component analysis (PCA) technique, as inputs to NNs for SO2 SCD retrievals. While the linear model and the PCA–NN algorithm can reduce retrieval noise, they both underestimate SO2 over polluted areas. Overall, the results presented here demonstrate that our new data analysis method can significantly improve the quality of existing OMI SO2 retrievals. The method can potentially be adapted for other sensors and/or species and enhance the value of satellite data in air quality research and applications.

Can Li↗

NASA NTRS2001

Bio-Optical Measurement and Modeling of the California Current and Polar Oceans

The principal goals of our research are to validate standard or experimental products through detailed bio-optical and biogeochemical measurements, and to combine ocean optical observations with advanced radiative transfer modeling to contribute to satellite vicarious radiometric calibration and advanced algorithm development. To achieve our goals requires continued efforts to execute complex field programs globally, as well as development of advanced ocean optical measurement protocols. We completed a comprehensive set of ocean optical observations in the California Current, Southern Ocean, Indian Ocean requiring a large commitment to instrument calibration, measurement protocols, data processing and data merger. We augmented separately funded projects of our own, as well as others, to acquire ill situ data sets we have collected on various global cruises supported by separate grants or contracts. In collaboration with major oceanographic ship-based observation programs funded by various agencies (CalCOFI, US JGOFS, NOAA AMLR, INDOEX and Japan/East Sea) our SIMBIOS effort has resulted in data from diverse bio-optical provinces. For these global deployments we generate a high-quality, methodologically consistent, data set encompassing a wide-range of oceanic conditions. Global data collected in recent years have been integrated with our on-going CalCOFI database and have been used to evaluate SeaWiFS algorithms and to carry out validation studies. The combined database we have assembled now comprises more than 700 stations and includes observations for the clearest oligotrophic waters, highly eutrophic blooms, red-tides and coastal case 2 conditions. The data has been used to validate water-leaving radiance estimated with SeaWiFS as well as bio-optical algorithms for chlorophyll pigments. The comprehensive data is utilized for development of experimental algorithms (e.g. high-low latitude pigment transition, phytoplankton absorption, and cDOM). During this period we completed 9 peer-reviewed publications in high quality journals, and presented aspects of our work at more than 10 scientific conferences.

Mitchell, B. Greg↗

NASA NTRS2002

Characterizing the Severe Turbulence Environments Associated With Commercial Aviation Accidents: 44 Case Study Synoptic Observational Analyses - Part 1

A 44 case study analysis of the large-scale atmospheric structure associated with development of accident-producing aircraft turbulence is described. Categorization is a function of the accident location, altitude, time of year, time of day, and the turbulence category, which classifies disturbances. National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalyses data sets and satellite imagery are employed to diagnose synoptic scale predictor fields associated with the large-scale environment preceding severe turbulence. These analyses indicate a predominance of severe accident-producing turbulence within the entrance region of a jet stream at the synoptic scale. Typically, a flow curvature region is just upstream within the jet entrance region, convection is within 100 km of the accident, vertical motion is upward, absolute vorticity is low, vertical wind shear is increasing, and horizontal cold advection is substantial. The most consistent predictor is upstream flow curvature and nearby convection is the second most frequent predictor.

Kaplan, Michael L.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Tropical Cyclone Information System

The JPL Tropical Cyclone Infor ma tion System (TCIS) is a Web portal (http://tropicalcyclone.jpl.nasa.gov) that provides researchers with an extensive set of observed hurricane parameters together with large-scale and convection resolving model outputs. It provides a comprehensive set of high-resolution satellite (see figure), airborne, and in-situ observations in both image and data formats. Large-scale datasets depict the surrounding environmental parameters such as SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and aerosol loading. Model outputs and analysis tools are provided to evaluate model performance and compare observations from different platforms. The system pertains to the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of the storm, the air-sea interaction processes, and the larger-scale environment as depicted by ocean heat content and the aerosol loading of the environment. Currently, the TCIS is populated with satellite observations of all tropical cyclones observed globally during 2005. There is a plan to extend the database both forward in time till present as well as backward to 1998. The portal is powered by a MySQL database and an Apache/Tomcat Web server on a Linux system. The interactive graphic user interface is provided by Google Map.

Li, P. Peggy↗

NASA NTRS2012

Interannual Variability of OLR as Observed by AIRS and CERES

This paper compares spatial anomaly time series of OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) and OLR(sub CLR) (Clear Sky OLR) as determined using observations from CERES Terra and AIRS over the time period September 2002 through June 2011. Both AIRS and CERES show a significant decrease in global mean and tropical mean OLR over this time period. We find excellent agreement of the anomaly time-series of the two OLR data sets in almost every detail, down to 1 deg X 1 deg spatial grid point level. The extremely close agreement of OLR anomaly time series derived from observations by two different instruments implies that both sets of results must be highly stable. This agreement also validates to some extent the anomaly time series of the AIRS derived products used in the computation of the AIRS OLR product. The paper also examines the correlations of anomaly time series of AIRS and CERES OLR, on different spatial scales, as well as those of other AIRS derived products, with that of the NOAA Sea Surface Temperature (SST) product averaged over the NOAA Nino-4 spatial region. We refer to these SST anomalies as the El Nino Index. Large spatially coherent positive and negative correlations of OLR anomaly time series with that of the El Nino Index are found in different spatial regions. Anomalies of global mean, and especially tropical mean, OLR are highly positively correlated with the El Nino Index. These correlations explain that the recent global and tropical mean decreases in OLR over the period September 2002 through June 2011, as observed by both AIRS and CERES, are primarily the result of a transition from an El Nino condition at the beginning of the data record to La Nina conditions toward the end of the data period. We show that the close correlation of global mean, and especially tropical mean, OLR anomalies with the El Nino Index can be well accounted for by temporal changes of OLR within two spatial regions which lie outside the NOAA Nino-4 region, in which anomalies of cloud cover and mid-tropospheric water vapor are both highly negatively correlated with the El Nino Index. Agreement of the AIRS and CERES OLR(sub CLR) anomaly time series is less good, which may be a result of the large sampling differences in the ensemble of cases included in each OLR(sub CLR) data set.

Susskind, Joel↗

NASA NTRS1993

LVQ and backpropagation neural networks applied to NASA SSME data

Feedfoward neural networks with backpropagation learning have been used as function approximators for modeling the space shuttle main engine (SSME) sensor signals. The modeling of these sensor signals is aimed at the development of a sensor fault detection system that can be used during ground test firings. The generalization capability of a neural network based function approximator depends on the training vectors which in this application may be derived from a number of SSME ground test-firings. This yields a large number of training vectors. Large training sets can cause the time required to train the network to be very large. Also, the network may not be able to generalize for large training sets. To reduce the size of the training sets, the SSME test-firing data is reduced using the learning vector quantization (LVQ) based technique. Different compression ratios were used to obtain compressed data in training the neural network model. The performance of the neural model trained using reduced sets of training patterns is presented and compared with the performance of the model trained using complete data. The LVQ can also be used as a function approximator. The performance of the LVQ as a function approximator using reduced training sets is presented and compared with the performance of the backpropagation network.

Doniere, Timothy F.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Observation Impact and Information Retention in the Lower Troposphere of the GMAO GEOS Data Assimilation System

In this study, we have assessed the effectiveness of the use of existing observing systems in the lower troposphere in the GEOS hybrid–4DEnVar data assimilation system through a set of observing system experiments. The results show that microwave radiances have a large impact in the Southern Hemisphere and Tropical ocean, but the large influence is mostly observed above 925 hPa and dissipates relatively quickly with longer forecast lead times. Conventional data information holds better in the forecast ranging from the surface to 100 hPa, depending on the field evaluated, in the Northern Hemisphere and lowest model levels in the Tropics. Infrared radiances collectively have much less impact in the lower troposphere. Removing surface observations has small but persistent impact on specific humidity in the upper atmosphere, but small or negligible impact on planetary boundary layer (PBL) height and temperature. The model responses to the incremental analysis update (IAU) forcing are also analyzed. In the IAU assimilation window, the physics responds strongly to the IAU forcing in the lower troposphere, and the changes of physics tendency in the lower troposphere and hydrodynamics tendency in the mid- and upper troposphere are viewed as beneficial to the reduction of state error covariance. In the subsequent forecast, the model tendencies continue to deviate further from the original free forecast with forecast lead times around 300–400 hPa, but physics tendency has showed signs of returning to its original free forecast mechanisms at 1-day forecast in the lower troposphere.

GEOS↗

NASA NTRS1984

Is stellar differential rotation observable?

Daily measures of the disk integral 2.8 GHz solar flux from the years 1947 through 1982 are analyzed to determine the detectability of stellar differential rotation using the tracer method. Autocorrelation and power spectral analyses of 1 yr data sets yield rotation periods whose scatter about the mean period is too large to permit detection of the expected differential rotation signal. The principal noise source is the random appearance of tracer regions on the solar surface, in time and longitude. Criteria are given for optimizing stellar observations and analyses to detect differential rotation.

Labonte, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Gas flow environment and heat transfer nonrotating 3D program

A complete set of benchmark quality data for the flow and heat transfer within a large rectangular turning duct is provided. These data are to be used to evaluate, and verify, three-dimensional internal viscous flow models and computational codes. The analytical contract objective is to select a computational code and define the capabilities of this code to predict the experimental results obtained. Details of the proper code operation will be defined and improvements to the code modeling capabilities will be formulated. Internal flow in a large rectangular cross-sectioned 90 deg. bend turning duct was studied. The duct construction was designed to allow detailed measurements to be made for the following three duct wall conditions: (1) an isothermal wall with isothermal flow; (2) an adiabatic wall with convective heat transfer by mixing between an unheated surrounding flow; and (3) an isothermal wall with heat transfer from a uniformly hot inlet flow.

Schulz, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Gas flow environmental and heat transfer nonrotating 3D program

A complete set of benchmark quality data for the flow and heat transfer within a large rectangular turning duct is being compiled. These data will be used to evaluate and verify three dimensional internal viscous flow models and computational codes. The analytical objective is to select such a computational code and define the capabilities of this code to predict the experimental results. Details of the proper code operation will be defined and improvements to the code modeling capabilities will be formulated.

Geil, T.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Energetic Phenomena on the Sun: The Solar Maximum Mission Flare Workshop. Proceedings

The general objectives of the conference were as follows: (1) Synthesize flare studies after three years of Solar Maximum Mission (SSM) data analysis. Encourage a broader participation in the SMM data analysis and combine this more fully with theory and other data sources-data obtained with other spacecraft such as the HINOTORI, p78-1, and ISEE-3 spacecrafts, and with the Very Large Array (VLA) and many other ground-based instruments. Many coordinated data sets, unprecedented in their breadth of coverage and multiplicity of sources, had been obtained within the structure of the Solar Maximum Year (SMY). (2) Stimulate joint studies, and publication in the general scientific literature. The intended primary benefit was for informal collaborations to be started or broadened at the Workshops with subsequent publications. (3) Provide a special publication resulting from the Workshop.

Kundu, Mukul↗

NASA NTRS1988

A new proton fluence model for E greater than 10 MeV

Researchers describe a new engineering model for the fluence of protons with energies greater than 10 MeV. The data set used is a combination of observations made primarily from the Earth's surface between 1956 and 1963 and observations made from spacecraft in the vicinity of Earth between 1963 and 1985. With this data set we find that the distinction between ordinary proton events and anomalously large proton events made in earlier work disappears. The greater than 10 MeV fluences at 1 AU calculated with the new model are about twice those expected on the basis of models now in use. In contrast to earlier models, results do not depend critically on the fluence from any one event.

Feynman, Joan↗

NASA NTRS1991

Radial evolution of the solar wind turbulence with application to charged particle transport

The proposed research efforts funded by the Pioneer-Venus Guest Investigator Grant to the Bartol Research Institute center on a study of the radial and temporal variation of the large-scale interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and include a study of the radial variation of the observed north-south asymmetry of the IMF spiral based on the previous results of Bieber (1988). The preliminary results of Bieber demonstrated that at Earth orbit there exists an asymmetry between the yearly average winding angles of toward and away sector fields that can be as large as 10 degrees. The Bieber (1988) analysis employed the NSSDC omnitape data set of 1 AU measurements. When the observed asymmetry is related to the state of the solar magnetic dipole, it is possible to conclude that the IMF north of the heliospheric current sheet is more tightly wound than the IMF spiral south of the current sheet. The average difference in the winding angle as measured over a 21 year period spanning 1965 through 1985 was 3.1 degrees + 1.1 degrees. The Bieber analysis was able to rule-out several possible sources for the observed behavior including a possible asymmetry in the solar wind speed or the observed hemispherical dependence of solar rotation. The object of this research was to extend this previous result to include observations within the inner and outer heliosphere, to examine the radial dependence of the reported asymmetry, and to better resolve the possible source of the observations. The Pioneer-Venus Orbiter has proven to be the perfect monitor for the inner heliospheric observations. It has provided 9 years of continuous observations at a fixed heliocentric distance (except for those periods when the spacecraft was within the region of space where the magnetic field is influenced by the presence of the planet). Comparisons between the 1 AU observations recorded on the NSSDC omnitape and the 0.7 AU observations of the Pioneer-Venus Orbiter have greatly improved our understanding of the IMF winding angle asymmetry. Further comparison with outer heliospheric measurements have proven interesting, although less conclusive.

Smith, Charles W.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Interstellar scattering toward Cygnus X-3: Measurements of anisotropy and of the inner scale

We present 18 cm wavelength Very Long Base Interferometry (VLBI) observations of Cyg X-3 obtained 1989 June 6 along with 18 and 20 cm Very Large Array (VLA) A-array data obtained 1985 February 8. In both data sets, the flux density was relatively high, and the intrinsic source size small compared to the scattering, ideal conditions for a detailed study of interstellar scattering. We find that the scattering disk is anisotropic, with an axial ratio 1.31 +/- 0.02 along position angle 52.0 deg +/- 1.5 deg. This is the first unambiguous measurement of anisotropic scattering in the interstellar medium. We also find a significant break in the phase structure function, the first measurement of a break in any source. The data exclude a steep turbulent spectrum, but are consistent with a shallow turbulent spectrum with an inner scale of 300 km, with a net uncertainty of approximately 50%. We tentatively identify the scattering plasma with the H II region DR 11, for which we estimate a visual extinction of 4 mag, and an emission measure toward Cyg X-3 of 6000 cm(exp -6)pc. We make the case that DR 11 is part of a shell of H II regions centered on the Cyg OB2 association (which is approximately 1.8 kpc distant) that is 2 deg (60 pc) in radius and expanding at 10 km/s. Our inner scale is consistent with that expected for an H II region, and the amount of scattering is consistent with the emission measure. We discuss how the anisotropy can be used to confirm the identification with DR 11 and to distinguish between different models of turbulence by comparison with measurements of the polarization of starlight along the line of sight.

Molnar, L. A.↗

NASA NTRS1996

WINDII atmospheric wave airglow imaging

Preliminary WINDII nighttime airglow wave-imaging data in the UARS rolldown attitude has been analyzed with the goal to survey gravity waves near the upper boundary of the middle atmosphere. Wave analysis is performed on O[sub 2](0,0) emissions from a selected 1[sup 0] x 1[sup 0] oblique view of the airglow layer at approximately 95 km altitude, which has no direct earth background and only an atmospheric background which is optically thick for the 0[sub 2](0,0) emission. From a small data set, orbital imaging of atmospheric wave structures is demonstrated, with indication of large variations in wave activity across land and sea. Comparison ground-based imagery is discussed with respect to similarity of wave variations across land/sea boundaries and future orbital mosaic image construction.

Troposphere↗

NASA NTRS1997

Trade-Wind Cloudiness and Climate

Closed Mesoscale Cellular Convection (MCC) consists of mesoscale cloud patches separated by narrow clear regions. Strong radiative cooling occurs at the cloud top. A dry two-dimensional Bousinesq model is used to study the effects of cloud-top cooling on convection. Wide updrafts and narrow downdrafts are used to indicate the asymmetric circulations associated with the mesoscale cloud patches. Based on the numerical results, a conceptual model was constructed to suggest a mechanism for the formation of closed MCC over cool ocean surfaces. A new method to estimate the radioative and evaporative cooling in the entrainment layer of a stratocumulus-topped boundary layer has been developed. The method was applied to a set of Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) results and to a set of tethered-balloon data obtained during FIRE. We developed a statocumulus-capped marine mixed layer model which includes a parameterization of drizzle based on the use of a predicted Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) number concentration. We have developed, implemented, and tested a very elaborate new stratiform cloudiness parameterization for use in GCMs. Finally, we have developed a new, mechanistic parameterization of the effects of cloud-top cooling on the entrainment rate.

Randall, David A.↗