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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying modeling uncertainties when combining multiple gravitational-wave detections from binary neutron star sources

Here, with the increasing sensitivity of gravitational-wave detectors, we expect to observe multiple binary neutron-star systems through gravitational waves in the near future. The combined analysis of these gravitational-wave signals offers the possibility to constrain the neutron-star radius and the equation of state of dense nuclear matter with unprecedented accuracy. However, it is crucial to ensure that uncertainties inherent in the gravitational-wave models will not lead to systematic biases when information from multiple detections is combined. To quantify waveform systematics, we perform an extensive simulation campaign of binary neutron-star sources and analyze them with a set of four different waveform models. For our analysis with 38 simulations, we find that statistical uncertainties in the neutron-star radius decrease to ± 250 m (2% at 90% credible interval) but that systematic differences between currently employed waveform models can be twice as large. Hence, it will be essential to ensure that systematic biases will not become dominant in inferences of the neutron-star equation of state when capitalizing on future developments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Identification of ancestral gnathostome Gli3 enhancers with activity in mammals

Abnormal expression of the transcriptional regulator and hedgehog (Hh) signaling pathway effector Gli3 is known to trigger congenital disease, most frequently affecting the central nervous system (CNS) and the limbs. Accurate delineation of the genomic cis-regulatory landscape controlling Gli3 transcription during embryonic development is critical for the interpretation of noncoding variants associated with congenital defects. Here, we employed a comparative genomic analysis on fish species with a slow rate of molecular evolution to identify seven previously unknown conserved noncoding elements (CNEs) in Gli3 intronic intervals (CNE15–21). Transgenic assays in zebrafish revealed that most of these elements drive activities in Gli3 expressing tissues, predominantly the fins, CNS, and the heart. Intersection of these CNEs with human disease associated SNPs identified CNE15 as a putative mammalian craniofacial enhancer, with conserved activity in vertebrates and potentially affected by mutation associated with human craniofacial morphology. Finally, comparative functional dissection of an appendage-specific CNE conserved in slowly evolving fish (elephant shark), but not in teleost (CNE14/hs1586) indicates co-option of limb specificity from other tissues prior to the divergence of amniotes and lobe-finned fish. In conclusion, these results uncover a novel subset of intronic Gli3 enhancers that arose in the common ancestor of gnathostomes and whose sequence components were likely gradually modified in other species during the process of evolutionary diversification.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Racoons ( Procyon Lotor ) Show Higher Trypanosoma Cruzi Detection Rates than Virginia Opossums ( Didelphis Virginiana ) in South Carolina, USA

Chagas disease, a significant public health concern in the Americas, is caused by a protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi. The life cycle of T. cruzi involves kissing bugs (Triatoma spp.) functioning as vectors and mammalian species serving as hosts. Raccoons (Procyon lotor) and opossums (Didelphis virginiana) have been identified as important reservoir species in the life cycle of T. cruzi, but prevalence in both species in the southeastern US is currently understudied. We quantified T. cruzi prevalence in these two key reservoir species across our study area in South Carolina, US, and identified factors that may influence parasite detection. We collected whole blood from 183 raccoons and 126 opossums and used PCR to detect the presence of T. cruzi. We then used generalized linear models with parasite detection status as a binary response variable and predictor variables of land cover, distance to water, sex, season, and species. Our analysis indicated that raccoons experienced significantly higher parasite detection rates than Virginia opossums, with T. cruzi prevalence found to be 26.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 20.0–33.8) in raccoons and 10.5% (95% CI, 5.51–17.5) in opossums. Altogether, our results concur with previous studies, in that T. cruzi is established in reservoir host populations in natural areas of the southeastern US.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1976

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Results of LACIE integrated drought analysis (Southern U.S. Great Plains drought 1975-76)

The development and intensification of the drought in the United States southern Great Plains was monitored during the initial growing period of the 1975-76 winter wheat crop. Because of the severity of the drought conditions, a drought analysis plan was developed and implemented beginning on March 8, 1976. Sample segments and full-frame imagery were used at 9-day intervals to identify the drought area and quantify the effects on the wheat acreage. Yield model simulations were run to extrapolate the effects of the drought on yield estimates at harvest, assuming 10 and 90 percent of normal rainfall for subsequent months and 30-day forecast. A survey of LANDSAT data for improvement of distribution of rainfall patterns in the drought area was done for April and yield models run for drought affected crop reporting districts. Special aggregations were performed by the Crop Assessment Subsystem on the drought area to evaluate the utility of remote sensing to monitor the effect of the drought on wheat area, yield, and production.

Thompson, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Estimation procedures to measure and monitor failure rates of components during thermal-vacuum testing

Estimation procedures are described for measuring component failure rates, for comparing the failure rates of two different groups of components, and for formulating confidence intervals for testing hypotheses (based on failure rates) that the two groups perform similarly or differently. Appendix A contains an example of an analysis in which these methods are applied to investigate the characteristics of two groups of spacecraft components. The estimation procedures are adaptable to system level testing and to monitoring failure characteristics in orbit.

Williams, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Initializing a flicker-noise generator

The behavior of the stationary process, y(s), resulting from a particular Barnes-Jarvis (1971) flicker-noise generator filter initialization is analyzed along with that of the usual output, y(p), and the results are compared to those derived from the theory of true nonstationary flicker noise. A computer simulation and theoretical analysis indicates that though y(s) and y(p) two-sample variances are almost the same, they have significantly different time-interval errors (TIE). As time increases, up to the useful life of the generator output, more and more of the y(s) TIE is found to be due to the transient part.

Greenhall, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Accurate determination of the fine-structure intervals in the 3P ground states of C-13 and C-12 by far-infrared laser magnetic resonance

Accurate values are presented for the fine-structure intervals in the 3P ground state of neutral atomic C-12 and C-13 as obtained from laser magnetic resonance spectroscopy. The rigorous analysis of C-13 hyperfine structure, the measurement of resonant fields for C-12 transitions at several additional far-infrared laser frequencies, and the increased precision of the C-12 measurements, permit significant improvement in the evaluation of these energies relative to earlier work. These results will expedite the direct and precise measurement of these transitions in interstellar sources and should assist in the determination of the interstellar C-12/C-13 abundance ratio.

Cooksy, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Changes in the earth's rate of rotation between A.D. 1672 and 1806 as deduced from solar eclipse timings

Solar eclipse timings measured between A.D. 1672 and 1806 are analyzed to study the variation of Delta T (= ET - UT) over this interval. These solar eclipse observations confirm the results of Brouwer (1952), Martin (1969), and Stephenson and Morrison (1969) which were obtained from the analysis of occultations in this period. It is believed that Goldstein's (1985) analysis inadequately represents the changes in Delta T.

Stephenson, F. R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Voyager measurements of the isotopic composition of cosmic-ray aluminum and implications for the propagation of cosmic rays

We report a new measurement of the cosmic-ray isotopic composition of aluminum in the low-energy range form 75 to 206 MeV per nucleon.This measurement was made using the high-energy telescope of the CRS experiment on the Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft during the time period from 1977 to 1993 with an average solar modulation level about 497 MV, roughly the same as at Earth near sunspot minimum. We obtain approximately 430 Al events of which approximately 35 are Al-26 and 395 are Al-27. The Al isotopes were separated with an average mass resolution sigma of 0.35 amu. Our interpretation of the isotopic composition of cosmic-ray aluminum is based on a standard Leaky-Box model for the interstellar propagation of cosmic-ray nuclei using the latest cross sections of the New Mexico-Saclay collaboration as well as a disk-halo diffusion model. From our observed ratio Al-26/Al-27 of 8.3 +/- 2.4 % we deduce an average interstellar density of about 0.52 (+0.26, -0.2) atoms per cu cm. This density is larger than the value of 0.28 (+0.14, -0.11) atoms per cu cm we found from an analysis of the observed abundance of the longer lived Be-10 made using data from the Voyager detectors over almost the same time interval and using essentially the same propagation program.

Lukasiak, A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Exterior and Interior Polar Cusps: Observations from Hawkeye

Hawkeye plasma, magnetic field, and plasma wave instruments directly sampled the throat of the northern polar cusp as the orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) changed from southward to northward on July 3, 1974. Two distinct regions in the polar cusp were identified based on magnetic field, plasma flow and magnetic and electric noise: the interior and exterior cusps. The observations show highly variable flows in the exterior portion of the cusp and constantly strong dawn-dusk flows in the interior portion during periods of strong IMF By component. Results of a minimum variance analysis of the magnetic field at each cusp interface crossing provides evidence that the magnetopause surface normal deviated highly from empirical models. During intervals of relatively steady solar wind dynamic pressure, the motion of the cusp relative to the slow moving spacecraft was modulated by the varying IMF clock angle as observed by IMP 8 in the upstream solar wind. The motion did not show a correlation with internal processes monitored by the A E index. We propose that observed plasma flow patterns and cusp motion are results of reconnection between the IMF and the magnetospheric magnetic field. Flow velocity observed in the interior cusp is consistent with stress balance for a reconnection process. This unique interval provides an opportunity for detailed studies of the plasma, magnetic field, and plasma wave properties in both the exterior and interior cusp.

Chen, S.-H.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Comment on the Predicted Size of Cycle 23 Based on the Inferred Three-Cycle Quasi-Periodicity of the Planetary Index Ap

Recently, Ahluwalia [1998] reviewed the solar and geomagnetic data for the last 6 decades and remarked that these data "indicate the existence of a three-solar-activity-cycle quasi-periodicity in them." Futhermore, on the basis of this inferred quasi-periodicity, he asserted that cycle 23 represents the initial cycle in a new 3-cycle string, implying that it "will be more modest (a la cycle 17) with an annual mean sunspot number count of 119.3 +/- 30 at the maximum," a prediction that is considerably below the consensus prediction of 160 +/- 30 by Joselyn et al. [1997] and of similar predictions by others based on a variety of predictive techniques. Several major sticking points of Ahluwalia's presentation, however, must be redressed, and these issues form the basis of this comment. In particular, it is shown that Ahluwalia used inappropriate values of the Ap index in his analysis, that the inferred 3-cycle relationship which Ahluwalia claims for both Ap and SSN does not exist for the previous 6-cycle interval (prior to cycle 17) for SSN, that his inferred fit is only of marginal statistical significance (having r = 0.81), and that two alternative precursor fits (both with r = 0.96 or greater) exist which strongly suggest that R max for cycle 23 will be much larger than forecast by Ahluwalia (namely, about 168-187). Thus, caution must be exercised in accepting Ahluwalia's findings.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Measurements of Optically Transparent and Mirrored Specimens from the POSA and EOIM III Space Flight Experiments

A selected set of optically transparent specimens and first surface mirror specimens have been examined subsequent to on-orbit exposure. Certain specimens were from the Passive Optical Sample Assembly I and II experiments flown on the MIR Space Station. Other specimens were from the Energetic Oxygen Interaction with materials III experiment flown on the STS in August 1992. A comparison of pre- and post-flight transmission of reflectance measurements, as appropriate, has been carried out. Data from different specimens includes results of measurements for IR, optical, UV and/or vacuum UV wavelength intervals. Results of these measurements clearly show the effects of molecular contamination deposits on the surfaces during the on-orbit exposures. Surface analysis on a attracted set of specimens provides and estimate of contaminant thickness and composition and provides an insight into on-orbit deposition rates and surface oxidation reactions. For both the EOIM III and POSA I & II experiments, the primary source of contamination were outgassed silicones. Both experiments received approximately the same fluence of atomic oxygen (approx. 1-2 x 1020 atoms per square centimeter). ROSA specimens received between approx. 400 and 580 equivalent sun hours (ESH) of solar radiation over an 18 month period in orbit. The EOIM specimens were on an STS flight of about 1 week duration and received only approx. 5-10 ESH of solar radiation.

Pippin, Gary↗
NASA NTRS2003

Cranial diameter pulsations measured by non-invasive ultrasound decrease with tilt

INTRODUCTION: Intracranial pressure (ICP) may play a significant role in physiological responses to microgravity by contributing to the nausea associated with microgravity exposure. However, effects of altered gravity on ICP in astronauts have not been investigated, primarily due to the invasiveness of currently available techniques. We have developed an ultrasonic device that monitors changes in cranial diameter pulsation non-invasively so that we can evaluate ICP dynamics in astronauts during spaceflight. This study was designed to demonstrate the feasibility of our ultrasound technique under the physiological condition in which ICP dynamics are changed due to altered gravitational force. METHODS: Six healthy volunteers were placed at 60 degrees head-up, 30 degrees headup, supine, and 15 degrees head-down positions for 3 min at each angle. We measured arterial blood pressure (ABP) with a finger pressure cuff, and cranial diameter pulsation with a pulsed phase lock loop device (PPLL). RESULTS: Analysis of covariance demonstrated that amplitudes of cranial diameter pulsations were significantly altered with the angle of tilt (p < 0.001). The 95% confidence interval for linear regression coefficients of the cranial diameter pulsation amplitudes with tilt angle was 0.862 to 0.968. However, ABP amplitudes did not show this relationship. DISCUSSION: Our noninvasive ultrasonic technique reveals that the amplitude of cranial diameter pulsation decreases as a function of tilt angle, suggesting that ICP pulsation follows the same relationship. It is demonstrated that the PPLL device has a sufficient sensitivity to detect changes non-invasively in ICP pulsation caused by altered gravity.

NASA Program Biomedical Research and Countermeasur↗
NASA NTRS2012

Broadband Noise Prediction When Turbulence Simulation Is Available - Derivation of Formulation 2B and Its Statistical Analysis

We show that a simple modification of Formulation 1 of Farassat results in a new analytic expression that is highly suitable for broadband noise prediction when extensive turbulence simulation is available. This result satisfies all the stringent requirements, such as permitting the use of the exact geometry and kinematics of the moving body, that we have set as our goal in the derivation of useful acoustic formulas for the prediction of rotating blade and airframe noise. We also derive a simple analytic expression for the autocorrelation of the acoustic pressure that is valid in the near and far fields. Our analysis is based on the time integral of the acoustic pressure that can easily be obtained at any resolution for any observer time interval and digitally analyzed for broadband noise prediction. We have named this result as Formulation 2B of Farassat. One significant consequence of Formulation 2B is the derivation of the acoustic velocity potential for the thickness and loading terms of the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings (FW-H) equation. This will greatly enhance the usefulness of the Fast Scattering Code (FSC) by providing a high fidelity boundary condition input for scattering predictions.

Farassat, Fereidoun↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Aerosol Data Assimilation and Forecasts in the NASA GEOS Model during the ASIA-AQ Campaign

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) poses significant risks to human health and the environment by penetrating the lungs and causing respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, making it crucial to understand its sources and behavior for effective air quality management. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Forward Processing (FP) system model, operated by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, provides real-time weather and aerosol analyses and forecasts. In addition to meteorological data assimilation, the GEOS-FP system also assimilates aerosol using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD data. In this study, the aerosol data assimilation and forecasts performance of the GEOS-FP model were evaluated for predicting PM2.5 in Korea using observations from the Airborne and Satellite Investigation of Asian Air Quality (ASIA-AQ) campaign. The ASIA-AQ campaign, an international collaborative field study initiative, aims to enhance understanding of local air quality issues and address common challenges in interpreting satellite data and air quality modeling. Conducted in South Korea from February 15 to March 13, 2024, during the high PM2.5 concentration winter season, this campaign provided extensive airborne and ground observations for intensive analysis of PM2.5 model simulations. We demonstrate how the assimilation runs and the forecasting performance of PM2.5 at 24-hour and 48-hour intervals vary. Additionally, we analyzed the differences and characteristics of PM2.5 composition in cases of long-range transport and local emissions. Using ASIA-AQ airborne data, we also examined the vertical profile of fine particulate matter. Through the intensive observations of this campaign, the GEOS model was assessed over South Korea using both in situ and airborne measurements to establish a baseline and identify priorities for future development.

Seunghee Lee↗
NASA NTRS2024

Shallow Soil Polychlorinated Biphenyl Site Assessment Report: General Services Administration Reclamation Yard Solid Waste Management Unit 010

This report presents a summary of the shallow soil polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) site assessment activities that occurred from December 2020 through July 2022 at General Services Administration Reclamation Yard, Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 010, located at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The site is monitored under KSC’s Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Corrective Action Program, which also meets the requirements of Chapter 62-780, Florida Administrative Code. For the purposes of this report, three separate shallow soil plumes, known as the Northeast Shallow Soil PCB Plume, Southeast Shallow Soil PCB Plume, and West Shallow Soil PCB Plume, were identified for this site. The activities presented in this report include seven field events conducted between December 2020 and July 2022, which include shallow soil sample collection in the Northeast, Southeast, and West Shallow Soil PCB Plumes. AECOM Technical Services, Inc., personnel collected 330 soil samples from 118 boring locations. The samples were collected at 0.5-foot depth intervals to various depths based on analytical results and depth to groundwater. The soil samples were submitted to a fixed-based laboratory for analysis by United States Environmental Protection Agency Method 8082A for total PCBs. Several soil samples had PCB concentrations above the State of Florida Direct Exposure Residential and Industrial Soil Cleanup Target Levels (SCTLs), and two soil samples had PCB concentrations above the State of Florida Leachability for Groundwater. No soil borings were located beneath impervious surfaces, such as concrete or asphalt. The current Land Use Control Implementation Plan (LUCIP) covers PCBs in soils above the residential SCTL, which includes the paved areas.

soil assessment↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adaptive time scaling for accelerating explicit finite element analysis

A method for accelerating an explicit finite element analysis (FEA) simulation of a modeled system or process includes performing an initial iteration of the FEA simulation according to a baseline time interval via an FEA computing network, and calculating a criteria ratio of a predetermined set of scaling criteria for the modeled system or process. The method includes determining a time-scaling factor using the criteria ratio via the FEA computing network as a function of the criteria ratio, and then applying the time-scaling factor to the baseline time interval to generate a scaled time interval. The scaled time interval accelerates simulation time of the FEA simulation. The method includes performing a subsequent iteration of the explicit FEA simulation at the scaled time interval using the FEA computing network. The process continues for subsequent iterations, with the time-scaling factor adapting with each iteration.

Chen, Jian↗