Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “impact evaluation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 631 records · Page 35

ARETE: Accurate Error Assessment via Machine Learning-Guided Dynamic-Timing Analysis

Nanometer circuits are increasingly prone to timing errors, escalating the need for fault injection frameworks to accurately evaluate their impact on applications. Here in this paper, we propose ARETE, a novel cross-layer, fault-injection framework that combines dynamic-binary instrumentation with machine learning-guided dynamic-timing analysis. ARETE enables accurate fault-injection into any application by estimating the location of the injecting errors via dynamic-timing analysis. To accelerate fault-injection, we develop a novel, data-aware, machine learning-based mechanism that dynamically pre-selects the error-prone instructions and limits the application of the costly dynamic-timing analysis only to them. To evaluate ARETE's accuracy, our fully automated toolflow is configured to support fault-injection based on detailed post-layout gate-level simulations as well as via existing workload-agnostic error models. Our results for various workloads, including an autonomous-driving library, show that the location and time of injected errors performed by ARETE, is 89.9% consistent with fault-injection based on full gate-level simulation. On average, ARETE executes 84.6x faster than gate-level simulation and at a cost of 3.4% loss in the program output quality estimation. When compared to the existing statistical fault-injection tools that are based on workload-agnostic error models, ARETE improves the accuracy of fault-injection rate and output quality estimation by 143.9% and 40.4% on average, respectively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development and Performance Evaluation of of Active Insulation Systems using Solid-State Thermal Switches

Traditional building envelopes have passive insulation systems that cannot respond to dynamic changes in the environment. An Active Insulation System (AIS) consists of Active Insulation Materials (AIMs), which dynamically vary the thermal conductivity of the insulation system. Several researchers have evaluated the impact of AIS on building thermal and energy performance by using simulation tools. Up to 70% savings in annual heating and cooling energy and significant reductions in peak demand have been predicted for some climates with wall systems employing AIS. Sensitivity studies have provided requirements for the AIS properties and control schemes that can lead to those savings. However, materials and assembly development have not yet achieved a cost-effective product that achieves the required performance. In this study, we present the process to develop an AIS that we will install in a test hut for their performance evaluation. Minimum performance criteria of the AIS system are developed based on Rmin/Rmax ratio, required time and efficiency to switch states and cost estimate. The next step carried out during this study is creating the concept to meet the requirements, predicting the performance by simulations, developing the experimental setup for bench-scale testing, and finally, constructing a full-scale wall assembly and monitoring the performance when exposed to natural weather conditions. The selected approach uses off-the-shelf products to create a materials system that can switch R-value between R~=1 ft2·°F·h/BTU (0.18 m2·K/W) and R~=7 ft2·°F·h/BTU (1.23 m2·K/W and have a switching time of less than one minute between R-high and R-low.

Iffa, Emishaw↗

Capacity Investment under Bayesian Information Updates at Reporting Periods: Model and Application

We consider capacity addition decisions by a new product manufacturer faced with uncertain technology alternatives. The manufacturing capacity addition and technology development occurs in parallel, with preliminary results from a technology project's success providing valuable information to the manufacturer in adding capacity. We solve a stochastic dynamic program with Bayesian updates to obtain the manufacturer's expected profit‐maximizing capacity investment decision. Our model and applications are motivated by the Critical Materials Institute (CMI) (funded by the Department of Energy), which manages research projects focused on mitigating critical material constraints, vital to renewable energy technologies such as direct‐drive wind turbines, electric vehicles, and energy‐efficient lighting. We capture three unique aspects of the problem: first, the learning from project progress depends on task‐based stochastic outcomes and a project's percent‐done. Second, the underlying technology's profitability is based on a model of competition. Third, we evaluate the impact of progress across a portfolio of projects based on a manufacturer's capacity addition. We develop a heuristic that produces results that are close to optimal and can thus be used for large problem sizes. The managerial insights from an application of our model to CMI projects include: (i) technology projects that report the percent‐done of a project earlier increase expected manufacturer profit; (ii) careful choice of “safe bets,” that is, technologies with low profitability but a high probability of success, can increase expected manufacturer profit; (iii) a portfolio of projects can increase profits significantly over separate project evaluation; and (iv) dynamic management of project resources can increase overall profit.

Vedantam, Aditya↗

Integrated Transmission and Distribution Co-Simulation Platform for Demonstration of Bulk Grid Services Using Distributed Energy Resources

In September 2020, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) released Order 2222, which opens wholesale markets to small-capacity distributed energy resources (DERs), recognizing their potential in improving operational efficiency by providing bulk grid services. Therefore, a co-simulation capability that can connect transmission and distribution (T&D) simulations and evaluate the impacts of DER provision of bulk grid services is needed. In this paper, we present a new integrated T&D co-simulation platform that incorporates T&D system simulators, DER aggregator/group strategies, and a co-simulation coordinator. Industry-standard communication protocols are employed to mimic real-world conditions. Secondary frequency regulation is selected as the representative bulk grid service, and we simulate the responses of DERs to the frequency regulation signals. The simulation results for a solar-rich distribution feeder in Colorado, USA, demonstrate how the T&D co-simulation setup is used to evaluate the contributions of DERs to minimize the bulk grid frequency deviation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Development of ultra-pure gadolinium sulfate for the Super-Kamiokande gadolinium project

This paper reports the development and detailed properties of about 13 metric tons of gadolinium sulfate octahydrate, Gd 2 (SO 4 ) 3 • 8H 2 O⁠, which has been dissolved into Super-Kamiokande (SK) in the summer of 2020. We evaluate the impact of radioactive impurities in Gd 2 (SO 4 ) 3 • 8H 2 O on diffuse supernova neutrino background searches and solar neutrino observation and confirm the need to reduce radioactive and fluorescent impurities by about three orders of magnitude from commercially available high-purity Gd 2 (SO 4 ) 3 • 8H 2 O⁠. In order to produce ultra-high-purity Gd 2 (SO 4 ) 3 • 8H 2 O, we have developed a method to remove impurities from gadolinium oxide, Gd 2 O 3 , consisting of acid dissolution, solvent extraction, and pH control processes, followed by a high-purity sulfation process. All of the produced ultra-high-purity Gd 2 (SO 4 ) 3 • 8H 2 O is assayed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and high-purity germanium detectors to evaluate its quality. Because of the long measurement time of high-purity germanium detectors, we have employed several underground laboratories for making parallel measurements including the Laboratorio Subterráneo de Canfranc in Spain, Boulby in the UK, and Kamioka in Japan. In the first half of production, the measured batch purities were found to be consistent with the specifications. However, in the latter half, the Gd 2 (SO 4 ) 3 • 8H 2 O contained one order of magnitude more 228Ra than the budgeted mean contamination. This was correlated with the corresponding characteristics of the raw material Gd 2 O 3 , in which an intrinsically large contamination was present. Based on their modest impact on SK physics, they were nevertheless introduced into the detector. To reduce 228 Ra for the next stage of gadolinium loading to SK, a new process has been successfully established.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Diesel Particulate Filter Durability Performance Comparison Using Metals Doped B20 vs. Conventional Diesel Part II: Chemical and Microscopic Characterization of Aged DPFs

This project's objective was to generate experimental data to evaluate the impact of metals doped B20 on diesel particle filter (DPF) ash loading and performance compared to that of conventional petrodiesel. The effect of metals doped B20 vs. conventional diesel on a DPF was quantified in a laboratory controlled accelerated ash loading study. The ash loading was conducted on two DPFs - one using ULSD fuel and the other on B20 containing metals dopants equivalent to 4 ppm B100 total metals. Engine oil consumption and B20 metals levels were accelerated by a factor of 5, with DPFs loaded to 30 g/L of ash. Details of the ash loading experiment and on-engine DPF performance evaluations are presented in the companion paper (Part I). The DPFs were cleaned, and ash samples were taken from the cleaned material. X-ray Fluorescence (XRF), X-Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) and X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) were conducted on the ash samples. Core samples were taken from the cleaned DPF and were subjected to scanning electron microscope energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) and XRF analysis. A comparison of the data from the two DPFs is presented. The XRD and XPS analysis showed that the compounds present in the ash from the two DPFs were nearly identical, though differing in concentrations. CaSO4 was the biggest component of the ash from both DPFs. The metals doped B20 fuel resulted in ash with similar characteristics to that deposited by the lube oil and did not appear to have any deleterious physical effects on the DPF substrate (did not penetrate the substrate).

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,BIOMASS FUELS↗

Origin of the isotopic composition of natural perchlorate: Experimental results for the impact of reaction pathway and initial ClO x reactant

Natural perchlorate (ClO 4 - ) exists in many places on Earth, in lunar regolith, meteorites, and on the surface of Mars. Terrestrial natural ClO 4 - has widely variable Cl and O stable isotopic compositions (δ 37 Cl, δ 18 O, Δ 17 O). The δ 18 O and Δ 17 O values of ClO 4 - from the most hyper-arid locations co-vary. ClO 4 - from less arid areas has relatively little 17 O excess and poor Δ 17 O-δ 18 O correlation. ClO 4 - from the Atacama Desert has unusually low δ 37 Cl (<-10‰) and exhibits a positive correlation between δ 37 Cl and δ 18 O, while the δ 37 Cl of ClO 4 - from all other locations varies between -5 and +7‰ with no δ 37 Cl-δ 18 O covariation. To evaluate the impact of different precursors (ClO x ) and reaction pathways on the isotopic composition of ClO 4 - , we measured the isotopic composition of ClO 4 - produced in the laboratory by UV or O 3 mediated aqueous oxidation of Cl-, OCl-, ClO2-, and ClO2° as well as O 3 mediated oxidation of dry NaCl. ClO x oxidation in aqueous or dry systems enriched in O 3 produced ClO 4 - with Δ 17 O values that generally increased with the number of O atoms required and included evidence that the site-specific 17 O anomaly in O 3 was preferentially transferred to ClO 4 - . Based on the inferred number of O atoms sourced from O 3 , and known Cl and O reaction pathways, it appears that ClO 2 ° and ClO 3 * were required intermediates in the production of ClO 4 - in the O 3 experiments. ClO x aqueous oxidation by UV irradiation produced ClO 4 - with a large range of δ 18 O values and little or no 17 O anomaly. ClO 3 - was produced to a much greater extent than ClO 4 - in all experiments except dry oxidation of NaCl by O 3 . The isotopic composition of ClO 3 - was distinct from that of ClO 4 - produced from the same initial reactants. Combined results of O 3 and UV mediated reactions largely bracketed the range of natural ClO 4 - δ 18 O and Δ 17 O values as well as δ 37 Cl values of non-Atacama natural samples, but no conditions produced the low δ 37 Cl values of Atacama ClO 4 - . Finally, our results indicate that variation in production mechanisms, possibly combined with isotopically variable precursors, could be responsible for much of the observed isotopic variation in natural ClO 4 - and ClO 3 - .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Coherent Modes of Global SST and Summer Rainfall over China: An Assessment of the Regional Impacts of the 1997-98 El Nino/ La Nina

In this paper, we have identified three principal modes of summertime rainfall variability over China and global sea surface temperature (SST) for the period 1955-1998. Using these modes, we have assessed the impact of the El Nino/La Nina on major drought and flood occurrence over China during 1997-1998. The first mode can be identified with the growth phase of El Nino superimposed on a linear warming trend since the mid-1950s. This mode strongly influences rainfall over northern China. The second mode comprises of a quasi-biennial tendency manifested in alternate wet and dry years over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) of central China. The third mode is dominated by a quasi-decadal oscillation in eastern China between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River. Using a mode-by-mode reconstruction, we evaluate the impacts of the various principal modes on the 1997 and 1998 observed rainfall anomaly. We find that the severe drought in northern China, and to a lesser degree the flood in southern China, in 1997 is likely a result of the influence of anomalous SST forcing during the growth phase of the El Nino. In addition, rainfall in southern China may be influenced by the decadal or long-term SST variability. The severe flood over the Yangtze River Valley in 1998 is associated with the biennial tendency of basin scale SST during the transition from El Nino to La Nina in 1997-98. Additionally, the observed prolonged drought over northern China and increasing flooding over the YRV since the 1950s may be associated with a long-term warming trend in the tropical Indian and western Pacific ocean. During 1997, the El Nino SST exacerbated the drought situation over northern China. In 1998, the drought appeared to get temporary relief from the La Nina anomalous SST forcing.

Lau, K.-M.↗

Graph-based Simulation Framework for Power Resilience Estimation and Enhancement

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events poses significant risks to power distribution systems, leading to widespread outages and severe economic and social consequences. This paper presents a novel simulation framework for assessing and enhancing the resilience of power distribution networks under such conditions. Resilience is estimated through Monte Carlo simulations, which simulate extreme weather scenarios and evaluate the impact on infrastructure fragility. Due to the proprietary nature of power network topology, a distribution network is synthesized using publicly available data. To generate the weather scenarios, an extreme weather generation method is developed. To enhance resilience, renewable resources such as solar panels and energy storage systems (batteries in this study) are incorporated. A customized Genetic Algorithm is proposed to determine the optimal locations and capacities for solar panels and battery installations, maximizing resilience while balancing cost constraints. Experiment results demonstrate that on a large-scale synthetic distribution network with more than 300,000 nodes and 300,000 edges, the proposed framework can efficiently evaluate the resilience, and enhance the resilience through the installations of distributed energy resources (DERs), providing utilities with valuable insights for community-level power system resilience estimation and enhancement.

Wang, Xuesong [Wayne State Univ., Detroit, MI (Uni↗

Selecting Meteorological Input for the Global Modeling Initiative Assessments

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team has developed a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. An important goal of the GMI is to test modules for numerical transport, photochemical integration, and model dynamics within a common framework. This work is focussed on the dependence of the overall assessment on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere were available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS-2'). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to evaluate which of these three data sets provided the best representation of trace gases in the stratosphere today. Tracer experiments were devised to test various aspects of model transport. Stratospheric measurements of long-lived trace gases were selected as a test of the CTM transport. This presentation describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields and the resulting choice of wind fields to be used in the GMI assessment. This type of objective model evaluation will lead to a higher level of confidence in these assessments. We suggest that the diagnostic tests shown here be used to augment traditional general circulation model evaluation methods.

Strahan, Susan↗

Comparison of Aerosol Classification Results from Airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) Measurements and the Calipso Vertical Feature Mask

Knowledge of the vertical profile, composition, concentration, and size of aerosols is required for assessing the direct impact of aerosols on radiation, the indirect effects of aerosols on clouds and precipitation, and attributing these effects to natural and anthropogenic aerosols. Because anthropogenic aerosols are predominantly submicrometer, fine mode fraction (FMF) retrievals from satellite have been used as a tool for deriving anthropogenic aerosols. Although column and profile satellite retrievals of FMF have been performed over the ocean, such retrievals have not yet been been done over land. Consequently, uncertainty in satellite estimates of the anthropogenic component of the aerosol direct radiative forcing is greatest over land, due in large part to uncertainties in the FMF. Satellite measurements have been used to detect and evaluate aerosol impacts on clouds; however, such efforts have been hampered by the difficulty in retrieving vertically-resolved cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration, which is the most direct parameter linking aerosol and clouds. Recent studies have shown correlations between average satellite derived column aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and in situ measured CCN. However, these same studies, as well as others that use detailed airborne in situ measurements have noted that vertical variability of the aerosol distribution, impacts of relative humidity, and the presence of coarse mode aerosols such as dust introduce large uncertainties in such relations.

Burton, S. P.↗

Model Quality and Measurement Density Impact on Volt/Volt Ampere Reactive Optimization Performance

The operation of the utility grid is being reshaped by the continuous addition of distributed energy resources and advanced metering infrastructure, which challenge existing grid control strategies. Some utilities deploy advanced distribution management systems (ADMS) to assist with the consolidation of various applications and to augment situational awareness in response to the new power delivery dynamics. An ADMS is an integrated software platform that provides utilities with a way to enhance their reliability, control, and optimization with advanced applications, such as volt/VAR optimization (VVO). A VVO application could serve as a vehicle to deliver cost savings by providing the utility with a method to reduce rates by controlling the voltage and decreasing the energy usage in their service territory. Some utilities are reluctant to integrate an ADMS, because it is a significant investment that requires approval from the public regulatory commission and/or their customers. This paper evaluates the impact on VVO performance when using a lower-quality network model supplemented with additional measurements, which could provide an implementation for cost savings. The results show that a better model quality would provide the highest energy savings; however, some level of telemetry is necessary in all scenarios to prevent voltage exceedances.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Exploring Environmental and Aerosol Impacts on Maritime Tropical Convection using Airborne Radiometer, Radar, Lidar, and Dropsondes

The field deployment phase of NASA’s Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex) took place around the Philippines during August–October 2019, with the primary goal of jointly investigating aerosols and tropical meteorology at the micro-β to meso-β scales. A suite of instruments was deployed on NASA’s P-3B Orion aircraft to accomplish this mission, including: the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR), Airborne Precipitation and cloud Radar 3rd Generation (APR-3), High Spectral Resolution Lidar 2 (HSRL2), and Advanced Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System (AVAPS) dropsondes. To examine potential aerosol influences on maritime tropical convection, P-3 flight segments throughout CAMP2Ex were binned into similar environmental groups using “low,” “medium,” and “high” values of nine AVAPS-derived parameters with known physical connections to convective frequency and/or intensity. Aerosol concentrations in each flight segment were evaluated using three HSRL2 variables at 355 and 532 nm: aerosol backscatter, aerosol extinction, and aerosol optical thickness. A set of radiometer- and radar-derived variables directly related to convective frequency and/or intensity was used to characterize convection, which included: AMPR-derived integrated cloud liquid water; polarization-corrected temperatures at 10.7, 19.35, 37.1, and 85.5 GHz; peak equivalent radar reflectivity factor (ZH); peak height of 30-dBZ ZH; and the number of radar data columns with composite ZH > 30 dBZ. The ZH analyses were performed using both Ku- and Ka-band APR-3 data. For each flight segment, correlation coefficients were calculated between each convective parameter and aerosol concentrations within the “low,” “medium,” and “high” groups for each environmental variable. The environmental stratification thresholds were then varied in a series of sensitivity tests. Several noteworthy correlations were observed between the convective and aerosol parameters within the environmental groups, especially when stratifying the environments based on their 850–500-hPa temperature lapse rate, 700–500-hPa temperature lapse rate, and K-Index. The convective parameters were often correlated most strongly with 355-nm extinction, 532-nm extinction, and 532-nm backscatter, while the presence of precipitation-sized liquid and ice hydrometeors contributed to some unexpected negative correlations. In general, as environmental conditions became more favorable for convection, a stronger correlation was observed between the convective parameters and aerosol concentrations. However, a “Goldilocks” zone of medium aerosol concentration was correlated most strongly with the convective parameters in many cases. These results stress the importance of considering environmental and aerosol conditions together when evaluating their impacts on convection. This presentation will provide a detailed discussion of these results and their implications, a summary of the limitations associated with such an analysis, and suggestions for future work.

Corey G. Amiot↗

Implementing Fuel Cladding Bonding and Assessing its Impact on Axial Gas Communication

Fuel rods irradiated in light-water reactors to burnup values above 45 MWd/kgU are subject to the formation of a chemical and mechanical bond between the fuel and cladding upon gap closure. The formation of the bond subsequently inhibits the ability of fission gases released from the fuel to flow freely to the plenum of the rod. The flowing of gases within fuel rods is referred to as axial gas communication. During transients, such as loss of coolant accidents, the bond may influence cladding deformation prior to breaking. Upon bond breakage, gases are able to more freely communicate to the lower pressure regions of the rod. The impact of bonding on gas communication and the ballooning behavior of the cladding during a loss of coolant accident is of interest to the nuclear industry in support of burnup extension for the existing light-water reactor fleet. In this report, a model to capture the effects of fuel cladding bonding in the BISON fuel performance code is presented. The theory of the model along with implementation testing is provided. A summary of a previously developed axial gas communication is given to set the stage for how the two models may be coupled together. A full-length pressurized-water reactor fuel rod demonstration is highlighted to evaluate the impact of including bonding on axial gas communication calculations using a preliminary coupling methodology. An overview of the next steps regarding the modeling of bonding, axial gas communication, and a more tightly coupled framework is also provided.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Choosing Meteorological Input for the Global Modeling Initiative Assessment of High Speed Aircraft

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team is developing a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to be used in assessment of the atmospheric effects of aviation. Requirements are that this model be documented, be validated against observations, use a realistic atmospheric circulation, and contain numerical transport and photochemical modules representing atmospheric processes. The model must also retain computational efficiency to be tractable to use for multiple scenarios and sensitivity studies. To meet these requirements, a facility model concept was developed in which the different components of the CTM are evaluated separately. The first use of the GMI model will be to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. The assessment calculations will depend strongly on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere are available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to identify the data set which provides the best representation of the stratosphere. Simulations of gases with simple chemical control were chosen to test various aspects of model transport. The three meteorological data sets were evaluated and graded based on their ability to simulate these aspects of stratospheric measurements. This paper describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields. The meteorological data set which has the highest score and therefore was selected for GMI is CCM2. This type of objective model evaluation establishes a physical basis for interpretation of differences between models and observations. Further, the method provides a quantitative basis for defining model errors, for discriminating between different models, and for ready re-evaluation of improved models. These in turn will lead to a higher level of confidence in assessment calculations.

Douglas, A. R.↗

Choosing Meteorological Input for the Global Modeling Initiative Assessment of High Speed Aircraft

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team is developing a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to be used in assessment of the atmospheric effects of aviation. Requirements are that this model be documented be validated against observations, use a realistic atmospheric circulation, and contain numerical transport and photochemical modules representing atmospheric processes. The model must also retain computational efficiency to be tractable to use for multiple scenarios and sensitivity studies. To meet these requirements, a facility model concept was developed in which the different components of the CTM are evaluated separately. The first use of the GMI model will be to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. The assessment calculations will depend strongly on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere are available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to identify the data set which provides the best representation of the stratosphere. Simulations of gases with simple chemical control were chosen to test various aspects of model transport. The three meteorological data sets were evaluated and graded based on their ability to simulate these aspects of stratospheric measurements. This paper describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields. The meteorological data set which has the highest score and therefore was selected for GMI is CCM2. This type of objective model evaluation establishes a physical basis for interpretation of differences between models and observations. Further, the method provides a quantitative basis for defining model errors, for discriminating between different models, and for ready re-evaluation of improved models. These in turn will lead to a higher level of confidence in assessment calculations.

Douglass, A. R.↗

State Technical Assistance - New Mexico Energy and Conservation Management Division Report [Slides]

The New Mexico Energy and Conservation Management Division (ECMD) sought technical assistance to enhance their ability to evaluate program impacts using the Low-Income Energy Affordability Data (LEAD) tool. NLR assisted ECMD in leveraging the LEAD tool to calculate and analyze energy burden across electric utility service areas, enabling them to assess program outcomes more effectively. To meet ECMD's goals, NLR developed a customized methodology to calculate utility-specific energy burden metrics using census tract data and available utility service area information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). While acknowledging some limitations in the EIA dataset, NLR estimated the percentage of households within each service territory and incorporated relevant filters such as income, housing characteristics, and other demographics from the LEAD tool. The analysis provided ECMD with a new capability to evaluate program success based on energy savings, reductions in energy burden, and other performance indicators. The data and methodology also support discussions with utilities to improve the accuracy of service territory datasets. ECMD can use the outputs to track program effectiveness and plan future initiatives. NLR offered the possibility of follow-on work, including capacity-building for ECMD to repeat the analysis independently and the option to refine the analysis with updated service.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Flexible AI Models for Grid Resilience

The rapid growth in size and complexity of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models has led to increased energy demands, posing a threat to the reliability of the existing power grid. This project addresses the challenge of highly intermittent and energy-intensive inference workloads by (1) developing fidelity-adaptive neural networks capable of dynamic response to grid conditions and (2) integrating these networks with power flow simulations to assess their impact on power grid reliability. We will explore both top-down and bottom-up approaches to create hierarchies of submodels that provide a controlled trade-off between power draw and prediction accuracy. The top-down method utilizes NN pruning to reduce a flagship model into progressively smaller, energy-efficient variants. The bottom-up approach employs geometrically principled weight setting strategies to construct depth-efficient models from the ground up. A real-time hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform will be developed to simulate a scaled AC power grid, integrating live AI workload power draw and enabling dynamic model switching in response to grid feedback. This work will provide a novel framework for evaluating the impact of flexible AI/ML workloads on grid performance and establish new methodologies for energy-aware computing in data centers. The outcomes will demonstrate that adaptive AI/ML can play a critical role in improving grid stability while advancing NREL's leadership in energy-efficient computing research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗