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At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A hybrid finite volume method and smoothed particle hydrodynamics approach for efficient and accurate blast simulations

Modeling strong shock waves in fluids remains a persistent challenge in computational physics. Essential to research efforts in industry and defense, numerous methods have been devised to improve the accuracy and efficiency of shock simulations. A novel, hybrid Finite Volume Method (FVM)-Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) approach is capable of further improving efficiency and retaining accuracy by exploiting the favorable characteristics of each respective method. This hybrid approach is presented for shock capturing in compressible fluids. The Python framework Pyro2 is employed to simulate a coarse FVM mesh, while the Python framework PySPH is utilized to model the fluid in regions with high gradients through SPH particles. The performance of the hybrid FVM-SPH scheme, compared to the individual FVM and SPH methods, is assessed in 1 kt and 10 kt blast simulations. Our results indicate that the hybrid approach offers higher computational efficiency than SPH while preserving its accuracy and characteristics. The hybrid approach had a relative speedup of 11.3x and 22.3x over the FVM and SPH approaches for the 1 kt simulation and a relative speedup of 14.7x and 20.9x over the FVM and SPH approaches for the 10 kt simulation. The hybrid SPH algorithm enables future compressible fluid simulations with more extensive capabilities than grid-based methods alone, presenting potential applications in modeling fluid-structure interactions and solid deformation and fracturing in blast simulations.

Myers, Conner↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling of fluid injection-induced fault reactivation using coupled fluid flow and mechanical interface model

The present study is aimed at developing a numerical model to reproduce coupled hydro-mechanical processes associated with fault reactivation by fluid injection in low permeability rock, as part of the DECOVALEX-2019 project Task B. We proposed a modeling approach for simulating the processes using the TOUGH-FLAC simulator, and modeled a fault reactivation experiment conducted at Mont Terri Rock Laboratory in Switzerland. The first step of the study involved benchmark calculations considering a simplified fault plane and geometry. Fluid flow along a fault was modeled using elements of aperture-sized thickness on the basis of Darcy's law and the cubic law in TOUGH2, whereas the mechanical behavior of a single fault was represented by zero-thickness interface elements in FLAC3D upon which a slip and/or separation is allowed. A methodology to connect a TOUGH2 volume element to a FLAC3D interface element was developed for handling the hydro-mechanical interactions on the fault during fluid injection. Two different fault models for describing the evolutions of hydraulic aperture by elastic fracture opening and failure-induced aperture increase were considered in the benchmark calculations. In the coupling process, the changes in geometrical features and hydrological properties induced by mechanical deformation were continuously updated. The transient responses of the fault and host rock to stepwise pressurization were examined during the simulation. The hydro-mechanical behavior, including the injection flow rate, pressure distribution around the borehole, stress conditions, and displacements in normal and shear directions were monitored in the surrounding rock and along the fault. The results of benchmark calculations suggest that the developed model reasonably represents the hydro-mechanical behavior of a fault and the surrounding rock. This modeling approach was applied to the fault reactivation experiment of the Mont Terri Rock Laboratory. In this interpretive modeling, a parametric study was conducted to examine the effects of input parameters regarding in situ stress and fault properties on the hydro-mechanical responses of the fault to water injection. Then, an optimal parameter set to reproduce the field experiment results was chosen by trial-and-error. The injection flow rate and pressure response during fault reactivation closely matched those obtained at the site, which indicates the capability of the model to appropriately capture the progressive pathway evolution during fault reactivation tests at the site. Finally, the anchor displacements were overestimated by the model, but a fair agreement was obtained in terms of the order of magnitude and the variation tendency.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Damage Modeling of Solid Oxide Fuel Cells Accounting for Redox Effects

This work applies a multiscale mechanistic damage model developed for brittle ceramics and implemented in commercial finite element (FE) packages via user subroutines to study progressive damage in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) subjected to thermomechanical loading under normal operating and shutdown conditions including redox effects. The damage model captures the micromechanics of stiffness reduction due to material porosity change and microcracking and integrates the as-obtained stiffness reduction law into a continuum damage mechanics (CDM) formulation for the evolution of microcracks up to fracture. The volumetric “swelling” that occurs during redox is treated in constitutive modeling similarly to thermal expansion, but swelling strains are irreversible. Furthermore, this damage model was first validated through predictions of strength and stress-strain response for the SOFC electrode materials. Next, it has been applied to predict the potential for degradation in a generic planar SOFC stack with large active area cells. Multicell stack models were simulated in both co-flow and counter-flow configurations. In addition, a constant temperature redox cycle was also simulated to capture overall cell electrode damage due to volumetric swelling of the nickel (Ni)-based anode in the anode-supported cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Role of heating and turbulent heat transfer in HE burning and detonation

Enhanced heat transfer model has been developed due to the turbulence in the cracks and pores in the burning fractured HE. This turbulence then serves in the initialization of the turbulence in the product gas. Enhanced heat transfer is also modeled in the turbulent product gas. Numerical simulations of the onset of HE burning and transition to detonation have been performed with and without the turbulent heat transfer model. Computational results indicate that onset of chemical reactions and transition to detonation is induced by the shockwave formed by the pressure rise caused by the heating. In other words, processes similar to shock-to-detonation transition (SDT) could become the driving mechanism for HE explosion and detonation in the case of heating rather than the temperature alone.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled phase field damage and crystal plasticity analysis of intragranular fracture: The role of crystallographic orientation and voids

Damage evolution in engineering metal alloys at the grain scale exhibits significant microstructural heterogeneity and anisotropy. These heterogeneities create local hotspots for stress and strain localization, leading to void nucleation. Crystal orientation influences the active slip systems around voids, affecting lattice rotation and potentially forming discontinuities. At low triaxiality, voids may change shape due to lower stress, rotation, elongation, and coalescence. At high triaxiality, the correlation between crystal orientation and void growth rate becomes stronger, resembling the behavior observed in isolated single crystals. Therefore, understanding the effects of crystal orientation, heterogeneous strain, and defect evolution is crucial for single crystal fracture characterization. Here, in this work, a coupled phase-field damage (PFD) and crystal plasticity (CP) model is implemented within a finite element framework to analyze crystal deformation and failure. The CP method employs a dislocation density-based constitutive model, while intragranular failure is modeled using an anisotropic PFD method. The PFD model considers both the stored energy due to elastic stretching and the energy release due to defect formation and crack formation. A single crystal Al2219 with an intracrystalline spherical void is chosen to analyze fracture. The study finds that fracture propagation is strongly correlated with crystal orientations. This coupled CP-PFD model provides accurate failure prediction in crystalline materials by incorporating the effects of crystal orientations and existing voids. This study demonstrates how the local microstructure and defects influence plastic deformation and failure mechanisms in metal alloys.

Aluminum alloy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reactive transport modeling of the Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) system at Stockton University, New Jersey during seasonal operations

Hydrogeochemical processes associated with Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) operations can often impact the system performance owing to mineral precipitation either at the wellbore or in the aquifer owing to changes in temperature and fluid disequilibria. Although failure of ATES systems due to mineral precipitation ("fouling") is common, predictive reactive-transport models have rarely been applied to plan their design and operation. Here, the objective of this study is to develop a reactive-transport model by coupling thermal, hydrological, and chemical (THC) processes to evaluate effects of introduced atmospheric oxygen on water chemistry, mineral precipitation/dissolution, porosity, and permeability changes associated with an ATES system at Stockton University (New Jersey, USA). The THC model builds on a Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical (THM) model of the site that evaluated system failure owing to possible fracturing in the caprock or around the wellbore. The causes of the system failure are not known – potential causes include hydraulic fracturing owing to elevated pump pressures that took place, a flow pathway created by one of the boreholes, or a pre-existing natural hydrologic connection between the upper unconfined aquifer and the ATES aquifer, any of which could have led to oxygenated water entering the reservoir and causing the observed Fe-oxide fouling on well screens. The THC model is used to evaluate some of the hypotheses and observations regarding system failure owing to geochemical processes. The reactive-transport code TOUGHREACT V4 was used to model the THC processes during seasonal heating and cooling operations at the Stockton ATES site over 6 years of operation. In the THC simulations, the primary effects on geochemistry were observed when the injection water is saturated with atmospheric oxygen. Simulations show greater precipitation of goethite near the cold wells as compared to the warm wells. Although volume fractions of Fe-hydroxides were relatively small, the model was aimed at processes in the aquifer at the scale of meters and larger rather than at the scale of mm or cm (i.e., a well screen). Kaolinite is the dominant precipitating phase, also around the cold wells. Illite dissolves near the cold wells and precipitates near the warm wells. There is a net decrease in the porosity near the cold wells and increase near the warm wells, although a slight amount of thermal contraction near the cold wells and expansion near the warm wells is responsible for a significant proportion of the porosity change. Owing to the coarse discretization of the numerical grid near the wells (compared to the screen thickness) the magnitude of permeability changes at the wellbore are likely underestimated. The reactive transport model in this study can be used for characterization of aquifers, optimizing the operational parameters (temperature, pressure, pH etc.), and planning of mitigation strategies for ATES systems.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Evaluation of Geoscientific Hypotheses with Geophysical Data: Application to Electrical Resistivity Imaging of a Fractured Bedrock Zone

As climate changes and populations grow, groundwater sustainability is becoming increasingly important. Groundwater models, based on a conceptual understanding of the subsurface structure, are crucial tools for making sustainable management decisions. Conceptual models of the subsurface are based on knowledge of geological processes, and, frequently, observations from geophysical data. A frequent problem in groundwater model development occurs when multiple geological phenomena could explain a single subsurface observation. Uncertainty in geophysical data makes it even more difficult to discern which explanations are consistent with the geophysics. Here, we present a framework for testing geological when a geological feature is observed in geophysical data, but its physical characteristics are uncertain. The framework builds on Popper-Bayes methods developed in previous work, and is applied to study a fractured bedrock zone in a mountainous watershed in southwest Colorado. First, we outline six hypotheses based on the geological history of the watershed. Then, using the proposed Popper-Bayes approach, we demonstrate that three of the six hypotheses are inconsistent with measured electrical resistivity data, even after accounting for uncertainty. Finally, we discuss the importance of the prior model, and how this framework for handling geophysical uncertainty can be applied in other settings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Autonomous Fracture Conductivity Using Expandable Proppants in Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Summary Early thermal breakthrough in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) due to the presence of preferential flow channels is a major challenge that endangers efficient and economic heat extraction in such systems. Previous studies mainly focused on adjusting circulation rates of the working fluid, which still leaves significant amounts of untapped heat behind. Currently, there is a lack of technologies for altering flow distribution within the fracture network to achieve uniform heat sweeping in the reservoir. This work presents a novel concept for making proppants to autonomously control fracture conductivity based on the surrounding temperature. Here, proppants with negative thermal expansion coefficients have demonstrated the capability for appropriate fracture conductivity adjustment as a function of temperature to achieve uniform flow across the fracture network. Particle-particle interactions governing such functions are explicitly modeled, and then the Lattice Boltzmann methods (LBM) is used to determine the potential impact of closure stress and temperature changes on the permeability of the proposed proppant packs. Microscale analyses are further used to determine the required material properties to achieve a certain improvement in the permeability of the proppant pack. Our analyses show an enhancement in permeability and the associated fracture conductivity by half of their initial values. Field-scale analysis further confirms the effectiveness of the proposed concept as 31.4% more heat can be extracted from EGS over 50 years of production when the proposed proppants are used. Such novel proppants may effectively delay thermal breakthrough, sweep heat from larger rock volumes, and elongate the life span of the EGS project.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Finite Element Analysis (FEA) for Water-Foam Fracturing of Granite Rock

In addition to the foam data that were obtained from literature and that were collected from the current study, simulation data was also generated from finite element analysis (FEA) conducted in this study using COMSOL Multiphysics software. The FEA models were built to simulate the experiments conducted at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) on cement and granite samples. In these FEA models, temperature was kept at ambient while the pressure profile resembled the loading conditions during the ORNL experiments, where pressure was either monotonically increased or applied cyclically. The cement material was used as a model material and was used to study Von Mises stress and tensile stress distribution for different bore hole length geometry using a parametric sweep with water as fracturing fluid using solid-fluid interaction module. For the granite material, FEA models were developed for stress analysis of cylindrical samples with water or foam fluids. The solid mechanics module in COMSOL was implemented to solve for Von Mises stress and tensile stress. The fluid-structure interaction module was implemented to solve for water-foam interaction on granite cylinder with addition of fluid-loading on structure, i.e., large deformation in solid mechanics with no impact on fluid deformation. Foam was considered as a pseudo single-phase compressible fluid for which material properties were calculated from water and gas (nitrogen) phases. The density of foam is calculated as a function of the densities of water and nitrogen, while viscosity is a function of temperature. Four types of FEA analyses were modelled: 1. Monotonic injection with water 2. Monotonic injection with foam 3. Cyclic injection with water 4. Cyclic injection with foam All the COMSOL files are converted to a zip file which is save in .mph.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Finite deformation implementation of a mixed-mode single-integral type cohesive zone with reorienting surfaces of separation

To model material ductile failure and crack propagation, cohesive zone elements can be embedded along potential fracture paths in a finite element simulation. When damage criteria are met, elements in the mesh decohere, simulating the formation and propagation of a crack. In this paper, we present a novel computational algorithm based on finite deformation theory, essential to modeling crack initiation and growth in solids undergoing large deformations. This new algorithm was formulated within a Lagrangian frame of reference to extend previous cohesive zone algorithms to include modeling crack growth in finite deformation contexts. The local coordinate system, necessary for defining an embedded cohesive zone, is constructed based upon the current configuration and is updated within the nonlinear iteration process, thereby resulting in the convergence of the solution for a growing crack in a large deformation quasi-static setting. The model’s accuracy was demonstrated by comparing finite element model simulation results with the analytic case of a constant surface separation, as shown in the verification examples. The power and efficacy of the algorithm to capture large deformations during crack growth were then demonstrated with a double cantilever beam example case. It indicates that the model can be applied to a variety of physical circumstances for predicting crack initiation and growth with delamination and fracture.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shifting groundwater fluxes in bedrock fractures: Evidence from stream water radon and water isotopes

Geologic features (e.g., fractures and alluvial fans) can play an important role in the locations and volumes of groundwater discharge and degree of groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions. However, the role of these features in controlling GW-SW dynamics and streamflow generation processes are not well constrained. GW-SW interactions and streamflow generation processes are further complicated by variability in precipitation inputs from summer and fall monsoon rains, as well as declines in snowpack and changing melt dynamics driven by warming temperatures. Using high spatial and temporal resolution radon and water stable isotope sampling and a 1D groundwater flux model, we evaluated how groundwater contributions and GW-SW interactions varied along a stream reach impacted by fractures (fractured-zone) and below the fractured hillslope (non-fractured zone) in Coal Creek, a Colorado River headwater stream affected by summer monsoons. During early summer, groundwater contributions from the fractured zone dominated, but declined throughout the summer. Groundwater contributions from the non-fractured zone were constant throughout the summer and became proportionally more important later in the summer. We hypothesize that groundwater in the non-fractured zone is dominantly sourced from a high-storage alluvial fan at the base of a tributary that is connected to Coal Creek throughout the summer and provides consistent groundwater influx. Water isotope data revealed that Coal Creek responds quickly to incoming precipitation early in the summer, and summer precipitation becomes more important for streamflow generation later in the summer. We quantified the change in catchment dynamic storage and found it negatively related to stream water isotope values, and positively related to modeled groundwater discharge and the ratio of fractured zone to non-fractured zone groundwater. Importantly, we interpret these relationships as declining hydrologic connectivity throughout the summer leading to late summer streamflow supported predominantly by shallow flow paths, with variable response to drying from geologic features based on their storage. As groundwater becomes more important for sustaining summer flows, quantifying local geologic controls on groundwater inputs and their response to variable moisture conditions may become critical for accurate predictions of streamflow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Verification benchmarks for single-phase flow in three-dimensional fractured porous media

Flow in fractured porous media occurs in the earth’s subsurface, in biological tissues, and in man-made materials. Fractures have a dominating influence on flow processes, and the last decade has seen an extensive development of models and numerical methods that explicitly account for their presence. To support these developments, four benchmark cases for single-phase flow in three-dimensional fractured porous media are presented. Furthermore, the cases are specifically designed to test the methods’ capabilities in handling various complexities common to the geometrical structures of fracture networks. Based on an open call for participation, results obtained with 17 numerical methods were collected. This paper presents the underlying mathematical model, an overview of the features of the participating numerical methods, and their performance in solving the benchmark cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constitutive model development of aluminum alloy 1100 for elevated temperature forming process

Commercially pure aluminum alloy, AA1100, presents good electrical and thermal conductivity, high formability, and low cost. Those favorable characteristics have the potential to enable bipolar plates with improved economics and enhanced performance compared to current stainless steel bipolar plates for proton exchange membrane fuel cells. An accurate constitutive model is essential to develop and optimize processing parameters and effectively control the forming process. Here, the objective of this work is to develop a constitutive model of AA1100 that is able to simulate stress-strain relation, formed geometry, and predict the onset of fracture strain to avoid forming failure. Initially, a set of tensile tests at temperature between 300 and 500°C and strain rate between 0.005 and 1.0/s were conducted to examine the deformation behavior. Then, a set of damage-based unified visco-plastic constitutive equations is proposed and calibrated based on the results of stress-strain data. A genetic algorithm optimization method is applied to search for best fitting material constants in constitutive equations. The proposed model shows good predictability of both the stress-strain relation and fracture strain at low strain rate and high temperature conditions. The accuracy of proposed model is also evaluated statistically. A comparison of the proposed model with three popular models (Arrhenius-type mode, Johnson-Cook model and Zerilli-Armstrong model) was made. The proposed model shows the best experimental agreement with correlation coefficient of 0.96 in contrast to 0.25, 0.38 and 0.75 for the popular models, respectively. The proposed model can help to optimize the elevated temperature forming process and guide die design to enable optimal geometric features in the formed components.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimization of the Reax force field for the lithium–oxygen system using a high fidelity charge model

Studies using molecular dynamics (MD) have long struggled to simulate the failure modes of materials, predicting unrealistically high ductility and failing to capture brittle fracture. The primary cause of this shortcoming is an inadequate description of bond breaking. While reactive force fields such as ReaxFF show improvements compared to traditional force fields, the charge models used yield unphysical partial charges, especially during dissociation of ionic bonds. This flaw may be remedied by using the atom-condensed Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT) approximated to a second order (ACKS2) charge model for determining partial charges. In this work, we present a new ACKS2-enabled Reax force field for fracture simulations of lithium oxide systems, which was obtained by training against an extensive set of DFT, multireference configuration interaction (MRCI), and MRCI+Q reference data using genetic optimization techniques. This new force field significantly improves the bond breaking behavior, but still cannot fully capture the brittle fracture in MD simulations, suggesting more research is needed to improve simulation of brittle fracture.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Identification of mechanisms driving heterogeneous void growth in ductile aluminum

Void growth plays a central role in ductile fracture, yet the specific mechanisms that control this remain obscure. Classical models, such as those proposed by Rice and Tracey in 1969, are able to capture average rates of void growth, but cannot capture the heterogeneity of individual void growth. Building on recent work, the present study employs laboratory-based diffraction contrast tomography and in-situ x-ray computed tomography to investigate the effect of grain structure and other microstructural factors on void growth in an Al-2219 alloy. Crystal plasticity finite element (CP-FE) modeling is used alongside experimental data to evaluate the contributions of local mechanical states, grain orientation, grain size, and neighboring microstructural features. No strong linear relationships are found with any of the considered descriptors and void growth rate. Potential complex nonlinear relationships are explored with the use of a random forest regression model, which identifies initial void volume, void aspect ratio, local normal stress state, local shear stress state, and local equivalent plastic strain (EQPS) as features that most improve void growth rate predictions. The combination of these analyses suggests that these features should be prioritized to improve models of void growth.

Diffraction contrast tomography (DCT)↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Geo‐Structurally Based Correction Factor for Apparent Dissolution Rates in Fractured Media

Abstract Field measurements of apparent geochemical weathering reaction rates in subsurface fractured porous media are known to deviate from laboratory measurements by multiple orders of magnitude. To date, there is no geologically based explanation for this discrepancy that can be used to predict reaction rates in field systems. Proposed correction factors are typically based on ad hoc characterizations related to geochemical kinetic models. Through a series of high‐fidelity reactive transport simulations of mineral dissolution within explicit 3D discrete fracture networks, we are able to link the geo‐structural attributes with reactive transport observations. We develop a correction factor to linear transition state theory for the prediction of the apparent dissolution rate based on measurable geological properties. The modified rate law shows excellent agreement with numerical simulations, indicating that geological structure could be a primary reason for the discrepancy between laboratory and field observations of apparent dissolution rates in fractured media.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale simulations for multi-continuum Richards equations

In this paper, we study a multiscale method for simulating a dual-continuum unsaturated flow problem within complex heterogeneous fractured porous media. Mathematically, each of the dual continua is modeled by a multiscale Richards equation (for pressure head), and these equations are coupled to one another by transfer terms. On its own, Richards equation is already a nonlinear partial differential equation, and it is exceedingly difficult to solve numerically due to the extra nonlinear dependencies involving the soil water. To deal with multiple scales, our strategy is that starting from a microscopic scale, we upscale the coupled system of dual-continuum Richards equations via homogenization by the two-scale asymptotic expansion, to obtain a homogenized system, at an intermediate scale (level). Based on a hierarchical approach, the homogenization’s effective coefficients are computed through solving the arising cell problems. Furthermore, to tackle the nonlinearity, after time discretization, we use Picard iteration procedure for linearization of the homogenized Richards equations. At each Picard iteration, some degree of multiscale still remains from the intermediate level, so we utilize the generalized multiscale finite element method (GMsFEM) combining with a multi-continuum approach, to upscale the homogenized system to a macroscopic (coarse-grid) level. This scheme involves building uncoupled and coupled multiscale basis functions, which are used not only to construct coarse-grid solution approximation with high accuracy but also (with the coupled multiscale basis) to capture the interactions among continua. These prospects and convergence are demonstrated by several numerical results for the proposed method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of the economic implications of varied pressure drawdown strategies generated using a real-time, rapid predictive, multi-fidelity model for unconventional oil and gas wells

Experience has suggested that pressure maintenance in hydraulically fractured reservoirs via lower, more sustained production drawdowns may offer improved cumulative recovery and overall resource extraction efficiency compared to more rapid drawdown approaches aimed at generating high initial production. However, given the inherent variability of oil and natural gas markets, operators pursue production strategies that maximize profitability over resource extraction efficiency. This study focuses on evaluating the implications of contrasting pressure drawdown strategies on the long-term production and resulting economics for a real, producing unconventional gas well in the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin using a techno-economic analysis approach. Our research combines elements of well-specific horizontal well design, production forecasting, equipment sizing and capital cost estimation, operating cost estimation, and revenue and tax calculations. Gas production forecast outlook scenarios were generated under varying pressure drawdowns using two approaches: 1) a novel physics-informed machine learning workflow and 2) traditional reservoir simulation. A discounted cash flow model was used to evaluate the resulting economic implications for each drawdown scenario—generating output for exploring the coupled effect of factors like the timing and volume of gas production, prevailing economic and market conditions for natural gas, and overall estimated ultimate recovery on profitability metrics such as internal rate of return and net present value. Results show that there is potential to maximize the cumulative gas produced in the specific case study well by employing a lower pressure drawdown. Conversely, the greatest profitability is achieved using rapid drawdown as signified by a small, specific subset of our outlook scenarios. On an averaging basis, we find that the combinations of highest cumulative producing and most profitable scenarios occur under lower drawdowns with long (>40 years) producing timeframes, but require higher relative gas price and lower discounting considerations. Further, the machine learning predictive outlooking capability proved effective for enabling rapid generation of a multitude of scenario forecasts. As a result, a variety of prominent example cases could be generated to strike the balance of greater productivity and economic return given their associated producing features and economic conditions when compared to similar producing scenarios—critical insight that offers improved decision support for unconventional oil and gas operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗