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NASA NTRS1973

Statistical error model for a solar electric propulsion thrust subsystem

The solar electric propulsion thrust subsystem statistical error model was developed as a tool for investigating the effects of thrust subsystem parameter uncertainties on navigation accuracy. The model is currently being used to evaluate the impact of electric engine parameter uncertainties on navigation system performance for a baseline mission to Encke's Comet in the 1980s. The data given represent the next generation in statistical error modeling for low-thrust applications. Principal improvements include the representation of thrust uncertainties and random process modeling in terms of random parametric variations in the thrust vector process for a multi-engine configuration.

Bantell, M. H.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Time-controlled descent guidance in uncertain winds

A procedure has been developed for constructing a statistical model of the altitude-dependent mean wind profile from the historical record of wind measurements at particular locations. The model is constructed by fitting a Markov process, with altitude as the stage variable, to the historical wind data. The wind model, together with the aircraft dynamics and the error characteristics of the navigation system, are incorporated in the design of a state estimator, which gives the minimum variance estimate of the aircraft state and the wind vector. The state and wind estimates are used as inputs to a linear feedback law for guiding the aircraft along the nominal trajectory. An example design of a time-constrained (4D RNAV) descent guidance system is presented, showing tracking accuracy, control activity, and probability of arrival time with and without the wind estimator.

Menga, G.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Parameter adaptive control of multivariable systems

Model reference adaptive controllers for multivariable plants are designed using only input and output signals rather than the complete state vector. The design is based on Liapunov's direct method, and the Meyer-Kalman-Yacubovich lemma. State variable filters are employed to avoid differentiating output signals. Augmented error signals are used in deriving stable adaptive control laws which assure that the normally used response error signals approach zero asymptotically.

Monopoli, R. V.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Robot arm dynamic model reduction for control

General methods are described by which the mathematical complexities of explicit and exact state equations of robot arms can be reduced to a simplified and compact state equation representation without introducing significant errors into the robot arm dynamic model. The model reduction methods are based on homogeneous coordinates and on the Langrangian algorithm for robot arm dynamics, and utilize matrix, vector and numeric analysis techniques. The derivation of differential vector representation of centripetal and Coriolis forces which has not yet been established in the literature is presented.

Bejczy, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS2002

GPS-Based Navigation and Orbit Determination for the AMSAT Phase 3D Satellite

This paper summarizes the results of processing GPS data from the AMSAT Phase 3D (AP3) satellite for real-time navigation and post-processed orbit determination experiments. AP3 was launched into a geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) on November 16, 2000 from Kourou, French Guiana, and then was maneuvered into its HEO over the next several months. It carries two Trimble TANS Vector GPS receivers for signal reception at apogee and at perigee. Its spin stabilization mode currently makes it favorable to track GPS satellites from the backside of the constellation while at perigee, and to track GPS satellites from below while at perigee. To date, the experiment has demonstrated that it is feasible to use GPS for navigation and orbit determination in HEO, which will be of great benefit to planned and proposed missions that will utilize such orbits for science observations. It has also shown that there are many important operational considerations to take into account. For example, GPS signals can be tracked above the constellation at altitudes as high as 58000 km, but sufficient amplification of those weak signals is needed. Moreover, GPS receivers can track up to 4 GPS satellites at perigee while moving as fast as 9.8 km/sec, but unless the receiver can maintain lock on the signals long enough, point solutions will be difficult to generate. The spin stabilization of AP3, for example, appears to cause signal levels to fluctuate as other antennas on the satellite block the signals. As a result, its TANS Vectors have been unable to lock on to the GPS signals long enough to down load the broadcast ephemeris and then generate position and velocity solutions. AP3 is currently in its eclipse season, and thus most of the spacecraft subsystems have been powered off. In Spring 2002, they will again be powered up and AP3 will be placed into a three-axis stabilization mode. This will significantly enhance the likelihood that point solutions can be generated, and perhaps more important, that the receiver clock can be synchronized to GPS time. This is extremely important for real-time and post-processed orbit determination, where removal of receiver clock bias from the data time tags is needed, for time-tagging of science observations. Current analysis suggests that the inability to generate point solutions has allowed the TANS Vector clock bias to drift freely, being perhaps as large as 5-7 seconds by October, 2001, thus causing up to 50 km of along-track orbit error. The data collected in May, 2002 while in three-axis stabilized mode should provide a significant improvement in the orbit determination results.

Davis, George↗

NASA NTRS2009

Detection of presence of chemical precursors

Methods and systems for determining if one or more target molecules are present in a gas, by exposing a functionalized carbon nanostructure (CNS) to the gas and measuring an electrical parameter value EPV(n) associated with each of N CNS sub-arrays. In a first embodiment, a most-probable concentration value C(opt) is estimated, and an error value, depending upon differences between the measured values EPV(n) and corresponding values EPV(n;C(opt)) is computed. If the error value is less than a first error threshold value, the system interprets this as indicating that the target molecule is present in a concentration C.apprxeq.C(opt). A second embodiment uses extensive statistical and vector space analysis to estimate target molecule concentration.

Li, Jing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

All-sky Microwave Radiance Assimilation in The GEOS Atmospheric Reanalysis for The Early 21st Century (GEOS-21C)

The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) is used for weather, climate, and air quality forecasts and producing reanalysis datasets. Its atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS) is a hybrid–4DEnVar system. Various satellite radiance, atmospheric motion vector (winds), aircraft, and convectional data are assimilated by this system to produce global atmospheric states. Satellite data assimilation within GEOS ADAS is enhanced by considering correlated observational errors among infrared radiance observations and assimilating new microwave radiance data in all-sky conditions since the release of the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). These new microwave radiance data include brightness temperature measurements made by the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) microwave imager (GMI) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 / Global Change Observation Mission 1st – Water (AMSR2/GCOM-W). Historical microwave radiance data made by various Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) aboard the Aqua satellite are tested within the all-sky microwave radiance assimilation framework in the preparation of the GEOS enhanced Atmospheric Reanalysis for the early 21st century (GEOS-21C). Assimilation of these data in all-sky conditions enhances use of other satellite data and improves GEOS analysis and forecast. In this talk, we will present the procedures of to assimilate microwave radiance data in all-sky conditions and their impact on atmospheric analysis in the preparation of GEOS-21C.

Jianjun Jin↗

NASA NTRS2022

Assessment of Geo-Kompsat-2A Atmospheric Motion Vector Data and Its Assimilation Impact in the GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

Korea’s second geostationary meteorological satellite, Geo-Kompsat-2A (Geostationary-Korean Multi-Purpose Satellite-2A, GK2A), was successfully launched on 4 December 2018. GK2Agenerates Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) every 10 min in the full disk area. This data hasbeen disseminated via Global Telecommunication System (GTS) since 25 October 2019. This articleevaluates the quality of GK2A AMVs in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmosphericdata assimilation system (ADAS). The data show slow wind speed biases at 200–300 hPa and 600–800hPa in the northern and southern hemispheres. These biases are caused by observation heightassignment errors near jet streams. The Equivalent Blackbody Temperature (EBBT) method of GK2Atends to assign clouds at higher altitude, which mainly causes slow wind speed biases, especially inthe lower atmosphere. The IR/WV intercept method of GK2A assigns clouds slightly lower in theatmospheric layers below the altitude of 400 hPa, which causes positive biases. Quality control (QC)criteria to select the most suitable GK2A AMV data for assimilation are presented based on thesequality assessments. A new QC criterion utilizing height errors within the GEOS ADAS is introducedto exclude data with slow wind speed biases and large errors. GEOS forecast accuracy is slightlyimproved after assimilating GK2A AMVs along with other conventional, radiance, and satellitewinds which include AMVs made by the Himawari-8 satellite in nearly the same observational areaof GK2A. Additionally, the present work shows that GEOS forecasts can be significantly improved,especially in the tropics and southern hemisphere after assimilating GK2A data in the absence ofHimawari-8 AMVs. This study demonstrates that GK2A AMV data is a valuable data source toenhance the robustness of GEOS ADAS.

Atmospheric Motion Vectors↗

DOE OSTI2018

Fast QSTS for Distributed PV Impact Studies Using Vector Quantization and Variable Time-Steps

As the penetration level of PV systems increases, utilities are in great need of methods to quickly and effectively analyze PV's impact on electric distribution systems. Compared to other conventional methods, quasi-static time-series (QSTS) based analysis has demonstrated its advantages of accurately capturing the impact of interest, e.g. control device operations, and min and max voltages. However, yearlong QSTS simulation with 1-second granularity is currently too computationally expensive for regular use. Therefore, vector quantization (VQ) and variable time-step (VTS) solution methods have been developed to accelerate QSTS simulation. This paper proposes the combination of VQ with VTS. We investigate the effectiveness of implementing VQ in combination with 2 VTS algorithms, predetermined time-step (PT) and VTS with backtrack downsampling (VTS-BD) to demonstrate a runtime reduction of 99.55% with error metrics below acceptable thresholds.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1975

Stochastic process approximation for recursive estimation with guaranteed bound on the error covariance

An approach, is proposed for the design of approximate, fixed order, discrete time realizations of stochastic processes from the output covariance over a finite time interval, was proposed. No restrictive assumptions are imposed on the process; it can be nonstationary and lead to a high dimension realization. Classes of fixed order models are defined, having the joint covariance matrix of the combined vector of the outputs in the interval of definition greater or equal than the process covariance; (the difference matrix is nonnegative definite). The design is achieved by minimizing, in one of those classes, a measure of the approximation between the model and the process evaluated by the trace of the difference of the respective covariance matrices. Models belonging to these classes have the notable property that, under the same measurement system and estimator structure, the output estimation error covariance matrix computed on the model is an upper bound of the corresponding covariance on the real process. An application of the approach is illustrated by the modeling of random meteorological wind profiles from the statistical analysis of historical data.

Menga, G.↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Exploratory Approach Using Regression and Machine Learning in the Analysis of Mass Absorption Cross Section of Black Carbon Aerosols: Model Development and Evaluation

Mass absorption cross-section of black carbon (MAC BC ) describes the absorptive cross-section per unit mass of black carbon, and is, thus, an essential parameter to estimate the radiative forcing of black carbon. Many studies have sought to estimate MAC BC from a theoretical perspective, but these studies require the knowledge of a set of aerosol properties, which are difficult and/or labor-intensive to measure. We therefore investigate the ability of seven data analytical approaches (including different multivariate regressions, support vector machine, and neural networks) in predicting MAC BC for both ambient and biomass burning measurements. Our model utilizes multi-wavelength light absorption and scattering as well as the aerosol size distributions as input variables to predict MAC BC across different wavelengths. We assessed the applicability of the proposed approaches in estimating MAC BC using different statistical metrics (such as coefficient of determination (R 2 ), mean square error (MSE), fractional error, and fractional bias). Overall, the approaches used in this study can estimate MAC BC appropriately, but the prediction performance varies across approaches and atmospheric environments. Based on an uncertainty evaluation of our models and the empirical and theoretical approaches to predict MAC BC , we preliminarily put forth support vector machine (SVM) as a recommended data analytical technique for use. We provide an operational tool built with the approaches presented in this paper to facilitate this procedure for future users.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Forecasting district-scale energy dynamics through integrating building network and long short-term memory learning algorithm

With the development of data-driven techniques, building energy prediction on a district level has attracted increasing attention in recent years for revealing energy use patterns and reduction potentials. However, data acquisition in large building groups is difficult and adjacent buildings also interact with each other. To reduce data cost and incorporate the inter-building impact with the data-driven building energy model, this study proposes a deep learning predictive approach that fuses the building network model with a long short-term memory learning model for district-scale building energy modeling. The building network was constructed based on correlations between the energy use intensity of buildings, which can significantly reduce the computational complexity of the deep learning models for energy dynamic prediction. Five typical building groups with energy use data from 2015 to 2018 on two institutional campuses were selected to perform the validation experiment with TensorFlow. Based on the prediction error assessments, the results suggest that for total building energy use intensity prediction, the proposed model can achieve a mean absolute percentage error of 6.66% and a root mean square error of 0.36 kWh/m 2 , compared to 12.05% and 0.63 kWh/m 2 of the conventional artificial neural network model and to 11.06% and 0.89 kWh/m 2 for the support vector regression model.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Lossy compression of statistical data using quantum annealer

Abstract We present a new lossy compression algorithm for statistical floating-point data through a representation learning with binary variables. The algorithm finds a set of basis vectors and their binary coefficients that precisely reconstruct the original data. The optimization for the basis vectors is performed classically, while binary coefficients are retrieved through both simulated and quantum annealing for comparison. A bias correction procedure is also presented to estimate and eliminate the error and bias introduced from the inexact reconstruction of the lossy compression for statistical data analyses. The compression algorithm is demonstrated on two different datasets of lattice quantum chromodynamics simulations. The results obtained using simulated annealing show 3–3.5 times better compression performance than the algorithm based on neural-network autoencoder. Calculations using quantum annealing also show promising results, but performance is limited by the integrated control error of the quantum processing unit, which yields large uncertainties in the biases and coupling parameters. Hardware comparison is further studied between the previous generation D-Wave 2000Q and the current D-Wave Advantage system. Our study shows that the Advantage system is more likely to obtain low-energy solutions for the problems than the 2000Q.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

WE-AB-BRA-02: Development of Biomechanical Models to Describe Dose-Volume Response to Liver Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) Patients

Purpose: Previous studies have shown that radiotherapy treatment for liver metastases causes marked liver hypertrophy in areas receiving low dose and atrophy/fibrosis in areas receiving high dose. The purpose of this work is to develop and evaluate a biomechanical model-based dose-response model to describe these liver responses to SBRT. Methods: In this retrospective study, a biomechanical model-based deformable registration algorithm, Morfeus, was expanded to include dose-based boundary conditions. Liver and tumor volumes were contoured on the planning images and CT/MR images three months post-RT and converted to finite element models. A thermal expansion-based relationship correlating the delivered dose and volume response was generated from 22 patients previously treated. This coefficient, combined with the planned dose, was applied as an additional boundary condition to describe the volumetric response of the liver of an additional cohort of metastatic liver patients treated with SBRT. The accuracy of the model was evaluated based on overall volumetric liver comparisons and the target registration error (TRE) using the average deviations in positions of identified vascular bifurcations on each set of registered images, with a target accuracy of the 2.5mm isotropic dose grid (vector dimension 4.3mm). Results: The thermal expansion coefficient models the volumetric change of the liver to within 3%. The accuracy of Morfeus with dose-expansion boundary conditions a TRE of 5.7±2.8mm compared to 11.2±3.7mm using rigid registration and 8.9±0.28mm using Morfeus with only spatial boundary conditions. Conclusion: A biomechanical model has been developed to describe the volumetric and spatial response of the liver to SBRT. This work will enable the improvement of correlating functional imaging with delivered dose, the mapping of the delivered dose from one treatment onto the planning images for a subsequent treatment, and will further provide information to assist with the biological characterization of patients’ response to radiation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1986

Anisotropic responses to motion toward and away from the eye

When a rigid object moves toward the eye, it is usually perceived as being rigid. However, in the case of motion away from the eye, the motion and structure of the object are perceived nonveridically, with the percept tending to reflect the nonrigid transformations that are present in the retinal image. This difference in response to motion to and from the observer was quantified in an experiment using wire-frame computer-generated boxes which moved toward and away from the eye. Two theoretical systems are developed by which uniform three-dimensional velocity can be recovered from an expansion pattern of nonuniform velocity vectors. It is proposed that the human visual system uses two similar systems for processing motion in depth. The mechanism used for motion away from the eye produces perceptual errors because it is not suited to objects with a depth component.

Perrone, John A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Development of iterative techniques for the solution of unsteady compressible viscous flows

Efficient iterative solution methods are being developed for the numerical solution of two- and three-dimensional compressible Navier-Stokes equations. Iterative time marching methods have several advantages over classical multi-step explicit time marching schemes, and non-iterative implicit time marching schemes. Iterative schemes have better stability characteristics than non-iterative explicit and implicit schemes. Thus, the extra work required by iterative schemes can also be designed to perform efficiently on current and future generation scalable, missively parallel machines. An obvious candidate for iteratively solving the system of coupled nonlinear algebraic equations arising in CFD applications is the Newton method. Newton's method was implemented in existing finite difference and finite volume methods. Depending on the complexity of the problem, the number of Newton iterations needed per step to solve the discretized system of equations can, however, vary dramatically from a few to several hundred. Another popular approach based on the classical conjugate gradient method, known as the GMRES (Generalized Minimum Residual) algorithm is investigated. The GMRES algorithm was used in the past by a number of researchers for solving steady viscous and inviscid flow problems with considerable success. Here, the suitability of this algorithm is investigated for solving the system of nonlinear equations that arise in unsteady Navier-Stokes solvers at each time step. Unlike the Newton method which attempts to drive the error in the solution at each and every node down to zero, the GMRES algorithm only seeks to minimize the L2 norm of the error. In the GMRES algorithm the changes in the flow properties from one time step to the next are assumed to be the sum of a set of orthogonal vectors. By choosing the number of vectors to a reasonably small value N (between 5 and 20) the work required for advancing the solution from one time step to the next may be kept to (N+1) times that of a noniterative scheme. Many of the operations required by the GMRES algorithm such as matrix-vector multiplies, matrix additions and subtractions can all be vectorized and parallelized efficiently.

Sankar, Lakshmi N.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Dynamic Forms and Their Application to Control

The rigid body model plays a basic role in both mod- and control of many systems, including aircraft flight control. The distinctive feature of the rigid body is that its motion evolves on a curved space, Consequently, the designer must take into account the deterioration of chosen coordinations near their singularities. In these regions the control actions and the sensitivity to modeling and sensor errors become unacceptable. Thus, coordinate patches and patching logic should be a part of the overall control law design and implementation. The various dynamic forms, such as scalar forms, vector forms, matrix forms, rotational forms, Euler angle forms, and Euler parameter forms, described in the paper provide an effective means for coordinate patching and control law implementation. The utility of these forms is illustrated by means of several applications to flight control.

Meyer, George↗

NASA NTRS2007

Anisotropic Solution Adaptive Unstructured Grid Generation Using AFLR

An existing volume grid generation procedure, AFLR3, was successfully modified to generate anisotropic tetrahedral elements using a directional metric transformation defined at source nodes. The procedure can be coupled with a solver and an error estimator as part of an overall anisotropic solution adaptation methodology. It is suitable for use with an error estimator based on an adjoint, optimization, sensitivity derivative, or related approach. This offers many advantages, including more efficient point placement along with robust and efficient error estimation. It also serves as a framework for true grid optimization wherein error estimation and computational resources can be used as cost functions to determine the optimal point distribution. Within AFLR3 the metric transformation is implemented using a set of transformation vectors and associated aspect ratios. The modified overall procedure is presented along with details of the anisotropic transformation implementation. Multiple two-and three-dimensional examples are also presented that demonstrate the capability of the modified AFLR procedure to generate anisotropic elements using a set of source nodes with anisotropic transformation metrics. The example cases presented use moderate levels of anisotropy and result in usable element quality. Future testing with various flow solvers and methods for obtaining transformation metric information is needed to determine practical limits and evaluate the efficacy of the overall approach.

Marcum, David L.↗