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Manufacturing Challenges and Benefits when Scaling the HIAD Stacked-Torus Aeroshell to a 15m Class System

Over a decade of work has been conducted in the development of NASA's Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) deployable aeroshell technology. This effort has included multiple ground test campaigns and flight tests culminating in the HIAD project's second generation (Gen-2) aeroshell system. The HIAD project team has developed, fabricated, and tested stacked-torus inflatable structures (IS) with flexible thermal protection systems (F-TPS) ranging in diameters from 3-6m, with cone angles of 60 and 70 deg. To meet NASA and commercial near term objectives, the HIAD team must scale the current technology up to 12-15m in diameter. The HIAD project's experience in scaling the technology has reached a critical juncture. Growing from a 6m to a 15m class system will introduce many new structural and logistical challenges to an already complicated manufacturing process. Although the general architecture and key aspects of the HIAD design scale well to larger vehicles, details of the technology will need to be reevaluated and possibly redesigned for use in a 15m-class HIAD system. These include: layout and size of the structural webbing that transfers load throughout the IS, inflatable gas barrier design, torus diameter and braid construction, internal pressure and inflation line routing, adhesives used for coating and bonding, and F-TPS gore design and seam fabrication. The logistics of fabricating and testing the IS and the F-TPS also become more challenging with increased scale. Compared to the 6m aeroshell (the largest HIAD built to date), a 12m aeroshell has four times the cross-sectional area, and a 15m one has over six times the area. This means that fabrication and test procedures will need to be reexamined to account for the sheer size and weight of the aeroshell components. This will affect a variety of steps in the manufacturing process, such as: stacking the tori during assembly, stitching the structural webbing, initial inflation of tori, and stitching of F-TPS gores. Additionally, new approaches and hardware will be required for handling and ground testing of both individual tori and the fully assembled HIADs. There are also noteworthy benefits of scaling up the HIAD aeroshell to 15m-class system. Two complications in working with handmade textiles structures are the non-linearity of the materials and the role of human accuracy during fabrication. Larger, more capable, HIAD structures should see much larger operational loads, potentially bringing the structural response of the materials out of the non-linear regime and into the preferred linear response range. Also, making the reasonable assumption that the magnitude of fabrication accuracy remains constant as the structures grow, the relative effect of fabrication errors should decrease as a percentage of the textile component size. Combined, these two effects improve the predictive capability and the uniformity of the structural response for a 12-15m class HIAD. In this paper, the challenges and associated mitigation plans related to scaling up the HIAD stacked-torus aeroshell to a 15m class system will be discussed. In addition, the benefits of enlarging the structure will be further explored.

Decellerators↗

Manufacturing Challenges and Benefits when Scaling the HIAD Stacked-Torus Aeroshell to a 15m-Class System

Over a decade of work has been conducted in the development of NASAs Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) deployable aeroshell technology. This effort has included multiple ground test campaigns and flight tests culminating in the HIAD projects second generation (Gen-2) aeroshell system. The HIAD project team has developed, fabricated, and tested stacked-torus inflatable structures (IS) with flexible thermal protection systems (F-TPS) ranging in diameters from 3-6m, with cone angles of 60 and 70 deg. To meet NASA and commercial near term objectives, the HIAD team must scale the current technology up to 12-15m in diameter. Therefore, the HIAD projects experience in scaling the technology has reached a critical juncture. Growing from a 6m to a 15m-class system will introduce many new structural and logistical challenges to an already complicated manufacturing process.Although the general architecture and key aspects of the HIAD design scale well to larger vehicles, details of the technology will need to be reevaluated and possibly redesigned for use in a 15m-class HIAD system. These include: layout and size of the structural webbing that transfers load throughout the IS, inflatable gas barrier design, torus diameter and braid construction, internal pressure and inflation line routing, adhesives used for coating and bonding, and F-TPS gore design and seam fabrication. The logistics of fabricating and testing the IS and the F-TPS also become more challenging with increased scale. Compared to the 6m aeroshell (the largest HIAD built to date), a 12m aeroshell has four times the cross-sectional area, and a 15m one has over six times the area. This means that fabrication and test procedures will need to be reexamined to ac-count for the sheer size and weight of the aeroshell components. This will affect a variety of steps in the manufacturing process, such as: stacking the tori during assembly, stitching the structural webbing, initial inflation of tori, and stitching of F-TPS gores. Additionally, new approaches and hardware will be required for handling and ground testing of both individual tori and the fully assembled HIADs.There are also noteworthy benefits of scaling up the HIAD aeroshell to a 15m-class system. Two complications in working with handmade textile structures are the non-linearity of the material components and the role of human accuracy during fabrication. Larger, more capable, HIAD structures should see much larger operational loads, potentially bringing the structural response of the material components out of the non-linear regime and into the preferred linear response range. Also, making the reasonable assumption that the magnitude of fabrication accuracy remains constant as the structures grow, the relative effect of fabrication errors should decrease as a percentage of the textile component size. Combined, these two effects improve the predictive capability and the uniformity of the structural response for a 12-15m HIAD.In this presentation, a handful of the challenges and associated mitigation plans will be discussed, as well as an update on current 12m aeroshell manufacturing and testing that is addressing these challenges

Infatables↗

Comparison of MeshGraphNet Techniques for Subsurface Behavior Prediction during CO2 Sequestration

Carbon sequestration is a vital part of the effort to mitigate anthropogenic climate change. Previously, we have shown that Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) provide the ability to extract meaningful insights during prediction of subsurface behavior in carbon storage projects. However, these models have struggled with long-term prediction accuracy due to error accumulation caused by autoregressive prediction. This research leverages the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP) dataset to examine strategies for minimizing loss over time in a MeshGraphNet GNN model to improve reliability of predictions while minimizing inferencing time.

Holcomb, Paul↗

Convergent Manufacturing of Large-Scale Components for Nuclear Applications, via Additive Manufacturing and Powder Metallurgy Hot Isostatic Pressing

Powder metallurgy (PM)–hot isostatic pressing (PM-HIP) has long been recognized as a powerful route for producing fully dense, near net shape metallic components. By consolidating powders under high temperature and pressure, HIP provides isotropic properties, uniform microstructures, and scalability to complex geometries that are vital for sectors such as aerospace, energy, and nuclear power. Yet despite these advantages, the technology has remained constrained by costly trial and error canister fabrication, limitations of conventional forging, and incomplete knowledge about how the canister design influences final part properties. Additive manufacturing (AM), by contrast, thrives on design freedom and geometric flexibility but struggles with speed, scalability, and cost when applied to very large structures. The research presented in this report investigated how a convergent manufacturing approach, combining AM with PM-HIP, can merge the strengths of both technologies, leveraging AM’s flexibility for canister design and HIP’s consolidation capability to deliver reliable, large, and complex parts. The work progressed through three case studies that built on one another in scale and complexity. Small cylindrical canisters fabricated by conventional methods, laser powder bed fusion, and directed energy deposition were filled with stainless steel powders and subjected to HIP. The resulting parts demonstrated near-full density and mechanical properties on par with wrought stainless steel, showing for the first time that AM canisters can be a direct substitute for conventional ones without sacrificing quality. The next step involved a medium-scale, noncentrosymmetric T-valve, which is an enclosed, multibranch geometry that tested the limits of AM + PM-HIP integration. The T-valve achieved predictable shrinkage and uniform densification, confirming feasibility for enclosed designs. However, this study also revealed oxide inclusions and interfacial challenges at the AM + HIP boundary, underscoring the critical importance of controlling interface chemistry and employing robust, in situ strategies, such as melt pool monitoring and thermal monitoring, coupled with nondestructive evaluation techniques such as x-ray computed tomography. Finally, the effort culminated in fabricating a large-scale impeller weighing nearly 2000 lb and spanning 5 ft in diameter. Produced via multirobot wire arc AM and hot isostatic pressed to near-full density, the impeller validated industrial-scale feasibility. Predictive models closely matched experimental shrinkage, tensile properties were spatially uniform across the component, and the AM + PM-HIP interface proved mechanically sound despite the presence of oxide-decorated prior particle boundaries. This large-scale demonstration is a major milestone, showing that hybrid AM + PM‑HIP can reliably deliver components at reactor-relevant scales. Collectively, these studies charted a logical pathway: small-scale work built scientific confidence, medium-scale work highlighted opportunities and challenges, and large-scale work proved industrial impact. The overarching conclusion of this report is that AM + PM-HIP should not be seen as a replacement for forging but as a complementary pathway that provides the US with flexibility, resilience, and new options for manufacturing nuclear-grade components. Looking ahead, several directions emerge as critical to sustaining progress. Predictive modeling must become faster, more accessible, and more accurate, with digital twins and machine learning reducing reliance on trial and error. Powders and alloys must be optimized for HIP, with improved cleanliness, reduced oxides, and tailored chemistries that enhance creep, fatigue, and irradiation resistance. Interfaces between AM and HIP regions must be better engineered through coatings, machining strategies, and surface treatments to mitigate oxide formation and ensure reliable bonding to explore opportunities for HIP of targeted compositional parts, as well as multimaterial HIP cladding applications. Monitoring and nondestructive evaluation need to expand, incorporating multimodal sensors, x-ray computed tomography, and real-time data integration through platforms such as Pelican. At the same time, the pathway to industrial adoption requires techno-economic analysis, machinability studies, and qualification frameworks aligned with industry and regulatory standards. Finally, workforce and academic engagement must be strengthened. Programs that train technicians and engineers for US Navy and US Department of Energy manufacturing challenges should be paired with academic partnerships to support fundamental research, with open sharing of non-export-controlled data to accelerate innovation and build the next generation of experts. In conclusion, this report demonstrates that hybrid AM + PM-HIP is scientifically viable and strategically important. By combining the design agility of AM with the consolidation strength of HIP and embedding modeling, monitoring, and workforce development, this approach provided a transformative new capability for US manufacturing. The path forward is clear: hybrid AM + PM-HIP is not just a promising research direction but is also potentially an industrially relevant pathway that can reshape how nuclear-grade components are designed, qualified, and deployed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Specification Reformulation During Specification Validation

The goal of the ARIES Simulation Component (ASC) is to uncover behavioral errors by 'running' a specification at the earliest possible points during the specification development process. The problems to be overcome are the obvious ones the specification may be large, incomplete, underconstrained, and/or uncompilable. This paper describes how specification reformulation is used to mitigate these problems. ASC begins by decomposing validation into specific validation questions. Next, the specification is reformulated to abstract out all those features unrelated to the identified validation question thus creating a new specialized specification. ASC relies on a precise statement of the validation question and a careful application of transformations so as to preserve the essential specification semantics in the resulting specialized specification. This technique is a win if the resulting specialized specification is small enough so the user my easily handle any remaining obstacles to execution. This paper will: (1) describe what a validation question is; (2) outline analysis techniques for identifying what concepts are and are not relevant to a validation question; and (3) identify and apply transformations which remove these less relevant concepts while preserving those which are relevant.

Benner, Kevin M.↗

Manufacturing Challenges and Benefits When Scaling the HIAD Stacked-Torus Aeroshell to a 15 Meter Class System

Over a decade of work has been conducted in the development of NASA's Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) deployable aeroshell technology. This effort has included multiple ground test campaigns and flight tests culminating in the HIAD project's second generation (Gen-2) aeroshell system. The HIAD project team has developed, fabricated, and tested stacked-torus inflatable structures (IS) with flexible thermal protection systems (F-TPS) ranging in diameters from 3-6 meters, with cone angles of 60 and 70 degrees. To meet NASA and commercial near-term objectives, the HIAD team must scale the current technology up to 12-15 meters in diameter. Therefore, the HIAD project's experience in scaling the technology has reached a critical juncture. Growing from a 6-meter to a 15-meter class system will introduce many new structural and logistical challenges to an already complicated manufacturing process. Although the general architecture and key aspects of the HIAD design scale well to larger vehicles, details of the technology will need to be reevaluated and possibly redesigned for use in a 15-meter-class HIAD system. These include: layout and size of the structural webbing that transfers load throughout the IS, inflatable gas barrier design, torus diameter and braid construction, internal pressure and inflation line routing, adhesives used for coating and bonding, and F-TPS gore design and seam fabrication. The logistics of fabricating and testing the IS and the F-TPS also become more challenging with increased scale. Compared to the 6-meter aeroshell (the largest HIAD built to date), a 12-meter aeroshell has four times the cross-sectional area, and a 15-meter one has over six times the area. This means that fabrication and test procedures will need to be reexamined to account for the sheer size and weight of the aeroshell components. This will affect a variety of steps in the manufacturing process, such as: stacking the tori during assembly, stitching the structural webbing, initial inflation of tori, and stitching of F-TPS gores. Additionally, new approaches and hardware will be required for handling and ground testing of both individual tori and the fully assembled HIADs. There are also noteworthy benefits of scaling up the HIAD aeroshell to a 15m-class system. Two complications in working with handmade textile structures are the non-linearity of the material components and the role of human accuracy during fabrication. Larger, more capable, HIAD structures should see much larger operational loads, potentially bringing the structural response of the material components out of the non-linear regime and into the preferred linear response range. Also, making the reasonable assumption that the magnitude of fabrication accuracy remains constant as the structures grow, the relative effect of fabrication errors should decrease as a percentage of the textile component size. Combined, these two effects improve the predictive capability and the uniformity of the structural response for a 12-15-meter HIAD. In this presentation, a handful of the challenges and associated mitigation plans will be discussed, as well as an update on current manufacturing and testing that addressing these challenges.

Infatables↗

Radiation Tolerant Intelligent Memory Stack (RTIMS)

The Radiation Tolerant Intelligent Memory Stack (RTIMS), suitable for both geostationary and low earth orbit missions, has been developed. The memory module is fully functional and undergoing environmental and radiation characterization. A self-contained flight-like module is expected to be completed in 2006. RTIMS provides reconfigurable circuitry and 2 gigabits of error corrected or 1 gigabit of triple redundant digital memory in a small package. RTIMS utilizes circuit stacking of heterogeneous components and radiation shielding technologies. A reprogrammable field programmable gate array (FPGA), six synchronous dynamic random access memories, linear regulator, and the radiation mitigation circuitries are stacked into a module of 42.7mm x 42.7mm x 13.00mm. Triple module redundancy, current limiting, configuration scrubbing, and single event function interrupt detection are employed to mitigate radiation effects. The mitigation techniques significantly simplify system design. RTIMS is well suited for deployment in real-time data processing, reconfigurable computing, and memory intensive applications.

Ng, Tak-kwong↗

Full-Carpet Design of a Low-Boom Demonstrator Concept

The Cart3D adjoint-based design framework is used to mitigate the undesirable o -track sonic boom properties of a demonstrator concept designed for low-boom directly under the flight path. First, the requirements of a Cart3D design mesh are determined using a high-fidelity mesh adapted to minimize the discretization error of the CFD analysis. Low-boom equivalent area targets are then generated at the under-track and one off-track azimuthal position for the baseline configuration. The under-track target is generated using a trim- feasible low-boom target generation process, ensuring that the final design is not only low-boom, but also trimmed at the specified flight condition. The o -track equivalent area target is generated by minimizing the A-weighted loudness using an efficient adjoint-based approach. The configuration outer mold line is then parameterized and optimized to match the off-body pressure distributions prescribed by the low-boom targets. The numerical optimizer uses design gradients which are calculated using the Cart3D adjoint- based design capability. Optimization constraints are placed on the geometry to satisfy structural feasibility. The low-boom properties of the final design are verified using the adaptive meshing approach. This analysis quantifies the error associated with the CFD mesh that is used for design. Finally, an alternate mesh construction and target positioning approach offering greater computational efficiency is demonstrated and verified.

Ordaz, Irian↗

Calculating and Mitigating the Risk of a Cut Glove to a Space Walking Astronaut

One of the high risk operations on the International Space Station (ISS) is conducting a space walk, or an Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA). Threats to the space walking crew include airlock failures, space suit failures, and strikes from micro ]meteoroids and orbital debris (MM/OD). There are risks of becoming untethered from the space station, being pinched between the robotic arm and a piece of equipment, tearing your suit on a sharp edge, and other human errors that can be catastrophic. For decades NASA identified and tried to control sharp edges on external structure and equipment by design; however a new and unexpected source of sharp edges has since become apparent. Until recently, one of the underappreciated environmental risks was damage to EVA gloves during a spacewalk. The ISS has some elements which have been flying in the environment of space for over 14 years. It has and continues to be bombarded with MM/OD strikes that have created small, sharp craters all over the structure, including the dedicated EVA handrails and surrounding structure. These craters are capable of cutting through several layers of the EVA gloves. Starting in 2006, five EVA crewmembers reported cuts in their gloves so large they rendered the gloves unusable and in some cases cut the spacewalk short for the safety of the crew. This new hazard took engineers and managers by surprise. NASA has set out to mitigate this risk to safety and operations by redesigning the spacesuit gloves to be more resilient and designing a clamp to isolate MM/OD strikes on handrails, and is considering the necessity of an additional tool to repair strikes on non ]handrail surfaces (such as a file). This paper will address how the ISS Risk Team quantified an estimate of the MM/OD damage to the ISS, and the resulting likelihood of sustaining a cut glove in order to measure the effectiveness of the solutions being investigated to mitigate this risk to the mission and crew.

Castillo, Theresa↗

Validating automated resonance evaluation with synthetic data

The integrity and precision of nuclear data are crucial for a broad spectrum of applications, from national security and nuclear reactor design to medical diagnostics, where the associated uncertainties can significantly impact outcomes. A substantial portion of uncertainty in nuclear data originates from the subjective biases in the evaluation process, a crucial phase in the nuclear data production pipeline. Recent advancements indicate that automation of certain routines can mitigate these biases, thereby standardizing the evaluation process and enhancing reproducibility. This research aims to provide a methodology, framework, and metrics for the validation of automated nuclear data evaluation software leveraging high-quality synthetic data that closely mimic real experimental observables. An introduced error metric provides a scale and intuitive measure of the evaluation quality by quantifying the estimate’s accuracy and performance across the specified energy range. Synthetic data provides access to experimental observables and underlying resonance parameters, enabling comparison of different evaluations. The methodology is demonstrated using Ta-181 isotope data in the resolved resonance region. The Automated Resonance Identification Subroutine (ARIS), which operates without prior resonance information, was used to test and showcase the framework’s capabilities utilizing the proposed error metrics. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and framework for optimizing software parameters and testing hypotheses through “what-if” controlled experiments, such as modifying assumptions about experimental conditions or average resonance parameters.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Mitigation of multipath in DGPS ground reference stations

Multipath represents one of the most serious threats to accuracy in Differential GPS (DGPS). The theoretical foundations of multipath are presented and several multipath mitigation techniques are reviewed. Special emphasis is placed on signal diffraction methods. Reflections enter peaks and nulls in the distorted antenna pattern in a random manner. This, coupled with the oscillations in relative phase (with respect to the direct signal), results in a multipath error signature which is noise-like. Since it is noise-like, it may be significantly reduced by averaging the code phase measurements against the more stable carrier-phase measurements. Exploitation of this effect to reduce multipath error represents a significant increase in accuracy for real time DGPS. Experiments have been performed which verify these conclusions.

Braasch, Michael S.↗

Downscaling GISS ModelE Boreal Summer Climate over Africa

The study examines the perceived added value of downscaling atmosphere-ocean global climate model simulations over Africa and adjacent oceans by a nested regional climate model. NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled ModelE simulations for June- September 1998-2002 are used to form lateral boundary conditions for synchronous simulations by the GISS RM3 regional climate model. The ModelE computational grid spacing is 2deg latitude by 2.5deg longitude and the RM3 grid spacing is 0.44deg. ModelE precipitation climatology for June-September 1998-2002 is shown to be a good proxy for 30-year means so results based on the 5-year sample are presumed to be generally representative. Comparison with observational evidence shows several discrepancies in ModelE configuration of the boreal summer inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). One glaring shortcoming is that ModelE simulations do not advance the West African rain band northward during the summer to represent monsoon precipitation onset over the Sahel. Results for 1998-2002 show that onset simulation is an important added value produced by downscaling with RM3. ModelE Eastern South Atlantic Ocean computed sea-surface temperatures (SST) are some 4 K warmer than reanalysis, contributing to large positive biases in overlying surface air temperatures (Tsfc). ModelE Tsfc are also too warm over most of Africa. RM3 downscaling somewhat mitigates the magnitude of Tsfc biases over the African continent, it eliminates the ModelE double ITCZ over the Atlantic and it produces more realistic orographic precipitation maxima. Parallel ModelE and RM3 simulations with observed SST forcing (in place of the predicted ocean) lower Tsfc errors but have mixed impacts on circulation and precipitation biases. Downscaling improvements of the meridional movement of the rain band over West Africa and the configuration of orographic precipitation maxima are realized irrespective of the SST biases.

Regional climate models↗

Behavioral consequences of low dose radiation and sex differences in MCAT mouse model

Our study used 1-year old C57BL/6NJ male and female mice (astronaut-relevant age) that underwent exposure to 0.5 gray of gamma radiation and were euthanized 12 weeks after. In this study, we used an MCAT mouse model for mitochondrial ROS quenching, which overexpress human catalase. MCAT mice were shown to live longer and age better. Hence, in this study we determined whether quenching ROS in the mitochondria will mitigate the adverse effects of ionizing radiation exposure on spaceflight-relevant tissues. As part of the analysis, we have completed 5 different behavioral tests which focus on memory, physical stance, stress, anxiety, and other mission relevant behaviors. In the Neuro-score battery, performed after both 1and 8 weeks post IR we saw that all female groups had significantly higher scores compared to males. When comparing the baseline vs 8 weeks of radiation, we saw that all the male groups (including the sham) had lower neuro-score, pointing out to aging effect in addition to IR. In the female groups only the female IR group had lower neuro-score and the MCAT group was protected from this effect. In the Nestlet building test we saw similarly that only females were affected by radiation, having lower scores and this effect was mitigated in the MCAT animals as well. In the Catwalk test we saw that females were faster, had higher swing speed and stride length in all four paws. Males had higher stand, step cycle and max contact area. Aging is associated with slowing of gait speed, swing speed and shortening of stride length which we see in males, this is consistent with physical appearance where males look markedly older. In the Light-Dark Box test we saw that females were more frequently present in the light side and altered zones more frequently, pointing out to a more exploratory and less anxious pattern of behavior. Similarly, to what was detected in the Nest building and Neuro-score test, in the Barnes maze test, during the acquisition phase (learning) we saw that IR affected more the females who did not do better in the maze after 4 days. On the other hand, during the probe phase of the test (spatial memory) the females visited the target hole and the box quadrant more often, but also had more errors vs males, which points out to possible serial escape vs spatial escape strategy. Overall, we see that older females look physically better are faster and perform better almost in all behavioral tests compared to their male counterparts. On the other hand, they are more sensitive to low dose radiation in many cases, in some cases this effect was mitigated in the MCAT model pointing out to the importance of ROS in these stressors. In the near future we will focus on corelating these behavioral tests with molecular findings such as for example brain IHC, plasma and hippocampal cytokines in order to find specific biomarkers for behavioral deficits.

radiation↗

Radiation-Tolerant Intelligent Memory Stack - RTIMS

This innovation provides reconfigurable circuitry and 2-Gb of error-corrected or 1-Gb of triple-redundant digital memory in a small package. RTIMS uses circuit stacking of heterogeneous components and radiation shielding technologies. A reprogrammable field-programmable gate array (FPGA), six synchronous dynamic random access memories, linear regulator, and the radiation mitigation circuits are stacked into a module of 42.7 42.7 13 mm. Triple module redundancy, current limiting, configuration scrubbing, and single- event function interrupt detection are employed to mitigate radiation effects. The novel self-scrubbing and single event functional interrupt (SEFI) detection allows a relatively soft FPGA to become radiation tolerant without external scrubbing and monitoring hardware

Ng, Tak-kwong↗

Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

functional analysis↗

Sequential Wald Test Employing a Constrained Filter Bank: Application to Spacecraft Conjunctions

A binary Wald sequential probability ratio test that uses the residuals of norm-inequality-constrained Kalman filters for its likelihood ratio may be employed for a class of compound hypothesis tests on non-stationary systems. The hypotheses concern an inequality constraint on the norm of some elements of the system state. Each of two filters minimizes the summed-squares of its estimation errors subject to one or the other direction of the inequality constraint. This solution is motivated by the problem of satellite conjunction assessment, wherein the constraint concerns the close approach distance between two space objects. The outcome of the test can inform decisions concerning risk mitigation maneuvers.

J. Russell Carpenter↗

Recommendations for Using Noise Monitors to Estimate Noise Exposure During X-59 Community Tests

A low fidelity simulation approach is used to explore how to place and use noise monitors during X-59 QueSST community tests, where people’s annoyance to the noise produced by the X-59 aircraft will be gathered. Several recommendations are provided including: 1) the desired number of sparsely spaced noise monitor sites within the survey area, 2) whether to group and average measurements across multiple noise monitors located at a site, 3) what spacing should be used if grouped noise monitors are used, 4) an approach to mitigate ambient noise contamination at the measurement sites, 5) a method to combine empirical and predicted dose estimates to provide a single dose estimate for respondents, and 6) assessing how changes in turbulence intensity and array configuration affect dose uncertainty. To make these recommendations, the error that is expected when fitting contrived, smoothly varying sonic boom “reference exposure surfaces” is studied when a spatially sparse and scattered set of samples is used as responses for the fit. The reference exposure surfaces mimic the sonic boom exposure at ground level that might be expected in the X-59 survey area in the absence of atmospheric turbulence, ambient noise, and other localized effects. The spatial extent of these surfaces varies and is representative of the different survey area sizes that might be expected during future X-59 community overflight tests. These contrived reference surfaces are sampled, and those reference samples are then perturbed to mimic atmospheric turbulence, ambient noise and other localized effects that might affect noise monitor measurements within overflown communities. Two different surface fitting methods are investigated when fitting these perturbed samples to approximate the reference surface. The first method uses interpolation between the perturbed data at the scattered sites to compute the fit. The second method fits a polynomial surface model to the perturbed data using ordinary least squares regression analysis. For both fitting methods, the root mean square fit error is computed from the pointwise difference between the fit surface and the reference surface as the count and configuration of the sites is varied while also averaging the error across many different realizations of both the smooth variation of the reference exposure surface and the random, localized perturbations at the sample sites. Different site configurations are compared using this error statistic to make the recommendations noted above. Additionally, the two fitting approaches (interpolation vs linear regression) are compared based on the fit error observed in these simulations. These analyses, comparisons, and recommendations should inform future decisions on the noise monitor placement and the methods used to analyze the noise monitor data that is collected during X-59 community overflights.

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Oxygen Isotopic Composition of Refractory Inclusions from the Miller Range (MIL) 090019 Carbonaceous Chondrite

Introduction: Primitive meteorites contain Calcium-Aluminum-rich Inclusions (CAIs)that preserve the records of the earliest times in the Solar System. CAIs record O isotopic variations with time and/or location from solar (16O-rich) to planetary (16O-poor) compositions [e.g., 1, 2].However, CAIs were also affected by parent body processing to varying degrees. The goal of this work was to identify the processes that resulted in the fine-scale spatial variations in oxygen isotopic compositions within the most ancient Solar System solids. We report oxygen isotopic composition of CAIs from MIL 090019 CO3.1 carbonaceous chondrite. MIL 090019 contains a high abundance of CAIs showing mineralogical as well as textural variations [3]. Methods: We analyzed 10 CAIs with different mineralogical assemblages, classified as corundum-bearing, grossite-bearing, hibonite-bearing, melilite-bearing, anorthite-bearing inclusions and amoeboid olivine aggregates(AOA’s). The mineralogical and petrological characterization of CAIs was performed using the JOEL Hyperprobe 8530 electron microprobe at NASA JSC. Oxygen isotopic imaging of the CAIs was done using the Cameca NanoSIMS 50L ion microprobe at NASA JSC. We followed the analytical protocol described in [4]. O-isotopic maps of the CAI were acquired by rastering a ~3 pA primary Cs+beam at 16 keVover an area of 20 ×20μm2over a period of ~7 hours. Negative secondary ions of 16O−, 17O−, 18O−, 28Si−, 24Mg16O−, 27Al16O−, and 40Ca16O−were simultaneously acquired using electron multiplier detectors at a mass resolving power sufficient to resolve the 16OH−interference from the 17O−peak, where the contribution of 16OH−was <0.1%.An electron flood gun was used to mitigate sample charging during the analyses. We used San Carlos olivine and Madagascar hibonite as isotopic standards to correct for the instrumental mass fractionation. The O-isotopic ratios were corrected for the quasi simultaneous arrival (QSA) effect and the detector dead time. All reported errors are 1 sigma. Results: The MIL 090019 carbonaceous chondrite hosts refractory inclusions varying in their mineralogies and textures[2, 3]. We found the oxygen isotopic compositions of mineral phases in MIL 090019 CAIs show large variations with Δ17O values varying from -27 to 0‰. A corundum-bearing inclusion records isotopic variations with corundum, melilite, perovskite, and anorthite showing Δ17Ovalues of -20 ±2.5, -10.2 ± 6.5, -10.7 ± 1.3,and -1.2 ± 3.2‰ respectively. A grossite-hibonite-bearing inclusion also records O-isotopic heterogeneity, where grossite, hibonite, Mg-rich spinel, and melilite show -3.7 ± 2.7, -22.9 ± 2.5, -21.4 ± 2.6, and -17.3 ± 2.8‰ respectively, whereas perovskite grains record a heterogenous isotopic composition ranging from -22.6 to -13.9‰. A hibonite-bearing inclusion shows average Δ17Ο values of -17.6 ± 5.3 ‰ and -15.1 ± 4.8 ‰ for hibonite and spinel respectively. The two perovskite grains also show relatively 16O-poor composition (Δ17Ο = -11.8 ± 6.4 ‰ and -8.6 ± 5.2 ‰). Anorthite has ~0.1 wt% Na2O and ~0.52 wt% FeO and a Δ17Ο value of -7.2 ± 5.0 ‰, whereas diopside records a Δ17Ο value of -3.5 ± 5.0 ‰. A hibonite-spinel-rich inclusion contains spinel and hibonite that are16O-rich (Δ17Οvalues -21.3 ± 2.8‰ and -19.4 ± 3.0‰, respectively). Melilite shows heterogenous oxygen isotopic composition, with an inner 16O-rich region and an outer 16O-poor region separated by a sharp boundary, with a bulk Δ17Ο= -16.2 ± 2.1‰, whereas two perovskite grains are relatively 16O-poor (Δ17Ο= -13.2 ± 3.7‰ and -7.1 ± 3.4‰).A spinel-rich inclusion contains perovskite grains with Δ17Οranging from -27.0 to -22.8 ‰and spinel with average Δ17Οvalue of -21.4 ± 2.8 ‰. In a melilite and spinel-rich CAI, perovskite, spinel, diopside, melilite, and Al-Ti-rich pyroxene record Δ17Ο values of-26.9 ± 4.6‰, -22.4 ± 4.3‰,-23.4 ± 4.9, -19.3 ± 3.4, and -19.0 ± 4.3 ‰ respectively. Olivine and spinel components of 2 AOA’s record a 16O-rich composition with Δ17O~-23‰. Discussion: The coexistence of 16O-rich and 16O-poor minerals within CAIs has been attributed to differing degrees of O isotopic exchange, reflecting a wide range of O diffusion rates[5]. However, the O isotopic heterogeneity observed in these CAIs cannot be explained by oxygen diffusion in nebular or parent body settings alone. The isotopic imaging of CAIs from the MIL 090019 meteorite shows variations in the O isotopic composition recorded in their mineral components, suggesting that these CAIs record the oxygen isotopic heterogeneity in the nebular gas from which they condensed. The coexistence of 16O-rich and 16O-poor mineral components in the CAI-forming region suggests that the gas in this region was not well-mixed and consisted of distinct 16O-rich and 16O-poor gaseous reservoirs.

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