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At least 631 records · Page 35

Importance of Engineered and Learned Molecular Representations in Predicting Organic Reactivity, Selectivity, and Chemical Properties

Machine-readable chemical structure representations are foundational in all attempts to harness machine learning for the prediction of reactivities, selectivities, and chemical properties directly from molecular structure. The featurization of discrete chemical structures into a continuous vector space is a critical phase undertaken before model selection, and the development of new ways to quantitatively encode molecules is an active area of research. Here, we highlight the application and suitability of different representations, from expert-guided “engineered” descriptors to automatically “learned” features, in different prediction tasks relevant to organic and organometallic chemistry, where differing amounts of training data are available. These tasks include statistical models of stereo- and enantioselectivity, thermochemistry, and kinetics developed using experimental and quantum chemical data. The use of expert-guided molecular descriptors provides an opportunity to incorporate chemical knowledge, domain expertise, and physical constraints into statistical modeling. In applications to stereoselective organic and organometallic catalysis, where data sets may be relatively small and 3D-geometries and conformations play an important role, mechanistically informed features can be used successfully to obtain predictive statistical models that are also chemically interpretable. We provide an overview of several recent applications of this approach to obtain quantitative models for reactivity and selectivity, where topological descriptors, quantum mechanical calculations of electronic and steric properties, along with conformational ensembles, all feature as essential ingredients of the molecular representations used. Alternatively, more flexible, general-purpose molecular representations such as attributed molecular graphs can be used with machine learning approaches to learn the complex relationship between a structure and prediction target. This approach has the potential to out-perform more traditional representation methods such as “hand-crafted” molecular descriptors, particularly as data set sizes grow. One area where this is particularly relevant is in the use of large sets of quantum mechanical data to train quantitative structure–property relationships. A general approach toward curating useful data sets and training highly accurate graph neural network models is discussed in the context of organic bond dissociation enthalpies, where this strategy outperforms regression using precomputed descriptors. Finally, we describe how graph neural network predictions can be incorporated into mechanistically informed statistical models of chemical reactivity and selectivity. Once trained, this approach avoids the expensive computational overhead associated with quantum mechanical calculations, while maintaining chemical interpretability. We illustrate examples for which fast predictions of bond dissociation enthalpy and of the identities of radicals formed through cleavage of a molecule’s weakest bond are used in simple physical models of site-selectivity and reactivity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Predicting Thermal Performance of an Enhanced Geothermal System From Tracer Tests in a Data Assimilation Framework

Abstract Predicting the thermal performance of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) requires a comprehensive characterization of the underlying fracture flow patterns from practically available data such as tracer data. However, due to the inherent complexities of subsurface fractures and the generally insufficient geological/geophysical data, interpreting tracer data for fracture flow characterization and thermal prediction remains a challenging task. The present study aims to tackle the challenge by leveraging a data assimilation method to maximize the utilization of information inherently contained in tracer data, and meanwhile maintain the flexibility to handle various uncertainties. A tracer data interpretation framework was proposed with the following three components integrated: (a) We use principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of model parameter space. (b) We use ES‐MDA (ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation) to invert for fracture aperture/flow fields and obtain posterior model ensembles for uncertainty quantification. Various data types are assimilated jointly to improve the predictive ability of the posterior ensemble. (c) The inverted fracture aperture fields are then incorporated into reservoir models to predict thermal performance. We developed a field‐scale EGS model to verify the ability of the framework to characterize highly heterogeneous fracture aperture/flow fields and predicting thermal performance. We also applied the framework to a mesoscale field experiment to demonstrate its potential application in real‐world geothermal reservoirs. The results indicate that the proposed framework can effectively retrieve fracture flow information from tracer data for thermal prediction and uncertainty quantification, and thus provide informative guidance for EGS optimization and risk management.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Efficient lattice QCD computation of radiative-leptonic-decay form factors at multiple positive and negative photon virtualities

In previous work [D. Giusti, Methods for high-precision determinations of radiative-leptonic decay form factors using lattice QCD, Phys. Rev. D 107, 074507 (2023)], we showed that form factors for radiative leptonic decays of pseudoscalar mesons can be determined efficiently and with high precision from lattice QCD using the “three-dimensional (3D) method,” in which three-point functions are computed for all values of the current insertion time and the time integral is performed at the data-analysis stage. Here, we demonstrate another benefit of the 3D method: the form factors can be extracted for any number of nonzero photon virtualities from the same three-point functions at no extra cost. We present results for the $D_s → ℓνγ*$ vector form factor as a function of photon energy and photon virtuality, for both positive and negative virtuality, for a single ensemble with 340 MeV pion mass and 0.11 fm lattice spacing. In our analysis, we separately consider the two different time orderings and the different quark flavors in the electromagnetic current. We discuss in detail the behavior of the unwanted exponentials contributing to the three-point functions, as well as the choice of fit models and fit ranges used to remove them for various values of the virtuality. While positive photon virtuality is relevant for decays to multiple charged leptons, negative photon virtuality suppresses soft contributions and is of interest in QCD-factorization studies of the form factors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Nucleon isovector momentum fraction, helicity and transversity moment using Lattice QCD

We present our recent high precision calculations (Phys. Rev. D102 (2020) no.5, 054512 and JHEP 04 (2021) 044, JHEP 21 (2020) 004) of the first moment of nucleon isovector polarized, unpolarized and transversity distributions, i.e., momentum fraction, helicity and transversity moment, respectively. We use the standard method for the calculation of these moments (via matrix elements of twist two operators), and carry out a detailed analysis of the sources of systematic uncertainty, in particular of excited state contributions. Our calculations have been performed using two different lattice setups (Clover-on-HISQ and Clover-on-Clover), each with several ensembles. They give consistent results that are in agreement with global fit analyses.

Mondal, Santanu↗

Real-time ensemble microalgae growth forecasting with data assimilation

Accurate short-range (e.g., 7-day) microalgae growth forecasts will be beneficial for both production and harvesting of microalgae. This study developed an operational microalgae growth forecasting system with ensemble data assimilation (DA). The forecasting system was validated against observed Monoraphidium minutum 26B-AM growth in two outdoor pond cultures located in Mesa, Arizona, U.S. We first examined the relative roles of uncertainty in the meteorological forecast and initial conditions (i.e., algal concentration at the time of forecast) in the microalgae 7-day forecast and found initial conditions dominated the microalgae forecasting skill, suggesting the importance of implementing DA to improve initial condition characterization. To correct the systematic bias in biomass simulations, we developed a particle filter with bias estimation (PFBE) DA method to estimate biases and correct the model forecast. We found the DA forecasting system could improve the 7-day microalgae forecasting skill by about 85% on average compared to model forecasts without DA. These results suggest the potential accuracy of biomass growth forecasts may be sufficient to inform real-time operational decisions, such as harvesting planning, for commercial-scale microalgae production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Towards determination of the strong coupling $α_s(m_Z)$ from four-flavor lattice QCD using the continuous $β$-function method

The precise value of the strong coupling $α_s(m_{Z})$ at the $Z$-boson mass $m_{Z}$ is essential for high-energy phenomenology and precision tests of quantum chromodynamics (QCD). We present the status of a program targeting a $\sim 0.3\%$ determination of $α_s(m_{Z})$ using the renormalization group $β$-function in the infinite volume gradient flow scheme based on lattice QCD simulations of degenerate four-flavor highly improved staggered quark (HISQ) ensembles. In particular, we analyze both tree-level cutoff effects and finite-mass effects. We also outline the next steps of the analysis, including the infinite-volume and continuum extrapolations required for a precise determination of $α_s(m_Z)$.

Mandlecha, Yash (ORCID:000000020587962X)↗

Towards determination of the strong coupling $α_s(m_Z)$ from four-flavor lattice QCD using the continuous $β$-function method

The precise value of the strong coupling $α_s(m_{Z})$ at the $Z$-boson mass $m_{Z}$ is essential for high-energy phenomenology and precision tests of quantum chromodynamics (QCD). We present the status of a program targeting a $\sim 0.3\%$ determination of $α_s(m_{Z})$ using the renormalization group $β$-function in the infinite volume gradient flow scheme based on lattice QCD simulations of degenerate four-flavor highly improved staggered quark (HISQ) ensembles. In particular, we analyze both tree-level cutoff effects and finite-mass effects. We also outline the next steps of the analysis, including the infinite-volume and continuum extrapolations required for a precise determination of $α_s(m_Z)$.

Mandlecha, Yash [Michigan State U.; Michigan State↗

Crystallography companion agent for high-throughput materials discovery

The discovery of new structural and functional materials is driven by phase identification, often using X-ray diffraction (XRD). Automation has accelerated the rate of XRD measurements, greatly outpacing XRD analysis techniques that remain manual, time-consuming, error-prone and impossible to scale. With the advent of autonomous robotic scientists or self-driving laboratories, contemporary techniques prohibit the integration of XRD. Here, we describe a computer program for the autonomous characterization of XRD data, driven by artificial intelligence (AI), for the discovery of new materials. Starting from structural databases, we train an ensemble model using a physically accurate synthetic dataset, which outputs probabilistic classifications—rather than absolutes—to overcome the overconfidence in traditional neural networks. This AI agent behaves as a companion to the researcher, improving accuracy and offering substantial time savings. It is demonstrated on a diverse set of organic and inorganic materials characterization challenges. This method is directly applicable to inverse design approaches and robotic discovery systems, and can be immediately considered for other forms of characterization such as spectroscopy and the pair distribution function.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: redshift calibration of the weak lensing source galaxies

ABSTRACT Determining the distribution of redshifts of galaxies observed by wide-field photometric experiments like the Dark Energy Survey (DES) is an essential component to mapping the matter density field with gravitational lensing. In this work we describe the methods used to assign individual weak lensing source galaxies from the DES Year 3 Weak Lensing Source Catalogue to four tomographic bins and to estimate the redshift distributions in these bins. As the first application of these methods to data, we validate that the assumptions made apply to the DES Y3 weak lensing source galaxies and develop a full treatment of systematic uncertainties. Our method consists of combining information from three independent likelihood functions: self-organizing map p(z) (sompz), a method for constraining redshifts from galaxy photometry; clustering redshifts (WZ), constraints on redshifts from cross-correlations of galaxy density functions; and shear ratios (SRs), which provide constraints on redshifts from the ratios of the galaxy-shear correlation functions at small scales. Finally, we describe how these independent probes are combined to yield an ensemble of redshift distributions encapsulating our full uncertainty. We calibrate redshifts with combined effective uncertainties of σ〈z〉 ∼ 0.01 on the mean redshift in each tomographic bin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Microelectrode Arrays for Electrochemical Cycling of Individual Battery Particles

The electrochemical characterization of battery materials is usually performed on porous electrodes containing conductive additives, binders, and ensembles of redox-active particles at densities as high as 10 15 cm –3 . These complex structures often obscure individual battery particles’ intrinsic properties, hindering insights into the fundamentals of battery electrochemistry. To address this challenge, we developed microelectrode arrays to enable the charge and discharge of individual battery particles in liquid electrolytes. In this Methods and Protocols paper, we describe the fabrication of the microelectrode array chips, the assembly of particles onto microelectrodes, and the different types of electrochemical techniques that can be used, including galvanostatic cycling, cyclic voltammetry, potentiostatic intermittent titration, and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. We use micron-sized lithium cobalt oxide as a model system to showcase the reliability and versatility of single-particle electrochemical experiments enabled by our microelectrode array. In conclusion, we aim to provide a detailed description to promote future uses of microelectrode arrays in fundamental research of batteries and other electrochemical systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Strain-Modulated Platinum–Palladium Nanowires for Oxygen Reduction Reaction

Electrocatalytic activity of alloy nanocatalytsts can be manipulated effectively by tuning their physical properties (ensemble, geometric, and ligand effects) to afford optimal surface structure and compositions for proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) application. Herein, highly catalytic platinum-palladium nanowires (Pt n Pd 100-n NWs) with a subtle lattice strain and Boerdijk-Coxeter helix type morphology are synthesized through a surfactant-free, thermal single phase solvent method. X-ray diffraction results show that Pt n Pd 100-n NWs are exposed through the (111) facets and their shrinking or expanding lattice parameters can be modulated by the alloy compositions. Electrochemical results reveal that their high catalytic activity correlates with the lattice shrinking, facets, and bimetallic compositions, showing higher activity when the ratio of Pt and Pd is similar to ~78:22, which is further supported by DFT results. Compared to the nanoparticle type platinum-palladium alloyed catalysts with similar metal compositions (Pt n Pd 100-n NPs), the Pt n Pd 100-n NWs exhibit significantly improved electrocatalytic activity and stability for the oxygen reduction reaction. Our findings open new strategies to design the highly active and stable alloy nanocatalysts with controllable compositions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Statistical Generation of Ocean Forcing With Spatiotemporal Variability for Ice Sheet Models

Melting of ice at the base of floating ice shelves that fringe the Antarctic ice sheet has been identified as a significant source of uncertainty in sea level rise projections. Part of this uncertainty derives from chaotic internal variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. For numerical ice sheet model projections, this uncertainty has not previously been quantified because of the prohibitive computational expense of running large climate model ensembles. Here, we develop and demonstrate a technique that generates independent realizations of internal climate variability from a single climate model simulation. Building on previous developments in model emulation, this technique uses empirical orthogonal function decomposition and Fourier-phase randomization to generate statistically consistent realizations of spatiotemporal variability fields for the target climate variable. The method facilitates efficient sampling of a wide range of climate trajectories, which can also be incorporated within ice sheet or other physical models to represent feedback processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards robust surrogate models: Benchmarking machine learning approaches to expediting phase field simulations of brittle fracture

Data-driven approaches have the potential to make modeling complex, nonlinear physical phenomena significantly more computationally tractable. For example, computational modeling of fracture is a core challenge where machine learning techniques have the potential to provide a much needed speedup that would enable progress in areas such as multi-scale modeling and uncertainty quantification. Currently, phase field modeling (PFM) of fracture is one such approach that offers a convenient variational formulation to model crack nucleation, branching and propagation. To date, machine learning techniques have shown promise in approximating PFM simulations. While standard fracture benchmarks represent realistic scenarios frequently observed in practice, they typically do not provide sufficiently challenging tests for data-driven methods. Here, to address this gap, we introduce a challenging dataset based on PFM simulations designed to benchmark and advance ML methods for fracture modeling. This dataset includes three energy decomposition methods, two boundary conditions, and 1000 random initial crack configurations for a total of 6000 simulations. Each sample contains 100 time steps capturing the temporal evolution of the crack field. Alongside this dataset, we also implement and evaluate Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINN), Fourier Neural Operators (FNO), and UNet models as baselines, and explore the impact of ensembling strategies on prediction accuracy. With this combination of our dataset and baseline models drawn from the literature we aim to provide a standardized and challenging benchmark for evaluating machine learning approaches to solid mechanics. Our results highlight both the promise and limitations of popular current models, and demonstrate the utility of this dataset as a testbed for advancing machine learning in fracture mechanics research.

Benchmark dataset↗

Ab initio predictions link the neutron skin of 208 Pb to nuclear forces

Heavy atomic nuclei have an excess of neutrons over protons, which leads to the formation of a neutron skin whose thickness is sensitive to details of the nuclear force. This links atomic nuclei to properties of neutron stars, thereby relating objects that differ in size by orders of magnitude. The nucleus 208 Pb is of particular interest because it exhibits a simple structure and is experimentally accessible. However, computing such a heavy nucleus has been out of reach for ab initio theory. By combining advances in quantum many-body methods, statistical tools and emulator technology, we make quantitative predictions for the properties of 208 Pb starting from nuclear forces that are consistent with symmetries of low-energy quantum chromodynamics. We explore 10 9 different nuclear force parameterizations via history matching, confront them with data in select light nuclei and arrive at an importance-weighted ensemble of interactions. We accurately reproduce bulk properties of 208 Pb and determine the neutron skin thickness, which is smaller and more precise than a recent extraction from parity-violating electron scattering but in agreement with other experimental probes. This work demonstrates how realistic two- and three-nucleon forces act in a heavy nucleus and allows us to make quantitative predictions across the nuclear landscape.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to calibrate the runoff-generation scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1

Abstract. Runoff is a critical component of the terrestrial water cycle, and Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study its spatiotemporal variability. Runoff schemes in ESMs typically include many parameters so that model calibration is necessary to improve the accuracy of simulated runoff. However, runoff calibration at a global scale is challenging because of the high computational cost and the lack of reliable observational datasets. In this study, we calibrated 11 runoff relevant parameters in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework. First, the polynomial chaos expansion machinery with Bayesian compressed sensing is used to construct computationally inexpensive surrogate models for ELM-simulated runoff at 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ for 1991–2010. The error metric between the ELM simulations and the benchmark data is selected to construct the surrogates, which facilitates efficient calibration and avoids the more conventional, but challenging, construction of high-dimensional surrogates for the ELM simulated runoff. Second, the Sobol' index sensitivity analysis is performed using the surrogate models to identify the most sensitive parameters, and our results show that, in most regions, ELM-simulated runoff is strongly sensitive to 3 of the 11 uncertain parameters. Third, a Bayesian method is used to infer the optimal values of the most sensitive parameters using an observation-based global runoff dataset as the benchmark. Our results show that model performance is significantly improved with the inferred parameter values. Although the parametric uncertainty of simulated runoff is reduced after the parameter inference, it remains comparable to the multimodel ensemble uncertainty represented by the global hydrological models in ISMIP2a. Additionally, the annual global runoff trend during the simulation period is not well constrained by the inferred parameter values, suggesting the importance of including parametric uncertainty in future runoff projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Ensemble learning-iterative training machine learning for uncertainty quantification and automated experiment in atom-resolved microscopy

Deep learning has emerged as a technique of choice for rapid feature extraction across imaging disciplines, allowing rapid conversion of the data streams to spatial or spatiotemporal arrays of features of interest. However, applications of deep learning in experimental domains are often limited by the out-of-distribution drift between the experiments, where the network trained for one set of imaging conditions becomes sub-optimal for different ones. This limitation is particularly stringent in the quest to have an automated experiment setting, where retraining or transfer learning becomes impractical due to the need for human intervention and associated latencies. Here we explore the reproducibility of deep learning for feature extraction in atom-resolved electron microscopy and introduce workflows based on ensemble learning and iterative training to greatly improve feature detection. This approach allows incorporating uncertainty quantification into the deep learning analysis and also enables rapid automated experimental workflows where retraining of the network to compensate for out-of-distribution drift due to subtle change in imaging conditions is substituted for human operator or programmatic selection of networks from the ensemble. This methodology can be further applied to machine learning workflows in other imaging areas including optical and chemical imaging.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract Daily maximum temperatures during the 2021 heatwave in the Pacific Northwest United States and Canada shattered century old records. Multiple causal factors, including anthropogenic climate change, contributed to these high temperatures, challenging traditional methods of attributing human influence. We demonstrate that the observed 2021 daily maximum temperatures are far above the bounds of Generalized Extreme Value distributions fitted from historical data. Hence, confidence in Granger causal inference statements about the human influence on this heatwave is low. Alternatively, we present a more conditional hindcast attribution study using two regional models. We performed ensembles of simulations of the heatwave to investigate how the event would have changed if it had occurred without anthropogenic climate change and with future warming. We found that global warming caused a ∼0.8°C–1°C increase in heatwave temperatures. Future warming would lead to a ∼5°C increase in heatwave temperature by the end of the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Testing the predictive power of theory for Pd x Ir (100-x) alloy nanoparticles for the oxygen reduction reaction

Here, density functional theory (DFT) calculations of O and OH binding energies on triatomic surface ensembles of Pd x Ir (100-x) nanoalloys successfully predicted the overall trend in experimental oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) activity as a function of nanoparticle (NP) composition. Specifically, triatomic Pd 3 ensembles were found to possess optimal O and OH binding energies and were predicted to be highly active sites for the ORR, rivaling that of Pt(111). However, DFT calculations suggest that the O binding energy increases at active sites containing Ir, thereby decreasing ORR activity. Pd x Ir (100-x) nanoalloys were synthesized using a microwave-assisted method and their activity towards the ORR was tested using rotating disk voltammetry (RDV). As predicted, the bimetallic electrocatalysts exhibited worse catalytic activity than the Pd-only NPs. The strong qualitative correlation between the theoretical and experimental results demonstrates that the activity of individual active sites on the surface of NPs can serve as a proxy for overall activity. This is a particularly useful strategy for applying DFT calculations to electrocatalysts that are too large for true first-principle analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗