Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “energy predictions”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Implementation of the University of Miami Wave Model (UMWM) into the NASA/GMAO Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS)

Wind generated waves are integral element in air-sea interactions and affect exchange of momentum, heat, water, gases and production of marine aerosol. Motivated by the need to resolve the air-sea interface we have implemented the University of Miami Wave model (UMWM) into the NASA/GMAO Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS). The implementation of the wave model in GEOS aimed to facilitate coupling with the atmosphere and ocean model components with minimal changes to the existing system, while at the same time ensure correctness of the predicted wave energy spectrum and wave diagnostics. Here we describe the implementation of the GEOS/UMWM system and show results from model experiments and verifications. This work is a step toward development of a coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean GEOS system.

Darmenov, Anton↗
NASA NTRS2019

Measurements of L-shell X-ray Emission lines of Neonlike Europium on an Electron Beam Ion Trap

We report a measurement of the two X-ray transitions that proceed from the (1s22s22p51∕23d3∕2)J=1 and (1s22s1/22p63p1/2)J =1 upper levels to the (1s22s22p6)J =0 ground level in neonlike Eu53+ (Z = 63), that is, near the previously documented avoided crossing of the two upper levels at Z = 68. The measurement was carried out using the calorimeter spectrometer on the Livermore EBIT-I electron beam ion trap. It affirms the trends set by the neighboring neonlike ions both in terms of the relative intensity of the two lines and in terms of the magnitude of disagreement with theoretical energy level predictions.

Peter Beiersdorfer↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SPACE: Three Decades of Spacecraft Power Systems Analysis with Fortran

The SPACE (System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation) Fortran program developed at NASA Glenn Research Center has enabled power generation predictions and energy balance analyses for spacecraft electrical power systems (EPS) since 1988. SPACE was originally designed to analyze the EPS of the Space Station Freedom and continues to support certifications for visiting vehicles and extravehicular activities on the International Space Station today. Another version of SPACE currently supports design and mission planning operations for the Orion and Gateway vehicles as part of NASA’s Artemis program. In total, over 50 engineers have contributed to the development and use of SPACE on various platforms throughout its history. Ongoing code modernization efforts aim to generalize the program for use with different vehicles and configurations. While SPACE team analysts currently interact with the program via the command line, future development work also includes the creation of a graphical user interface for use by flight operations personnel. The SPACE code thus has a long legacy in spacecraft EPS analysis and will continue to play a critical role in future human spaceflight missions by leveraging the computational power of Fortran.

Fortran↗
NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Arctic Climate Projections of Wintertime Warming With Surface Turbulent Flux Observations and Representation of Surface-Atmosphere Coupling

The drivers of rapid Arctic climate change—record sea ice loss, warming SSTs, and a lengthening of the sea ice melt season—compel us to understand how this complex system operates and use this knowledge to enhance Arctic predictability. Changing energy flows sparked by sea ice decline, spotlight atmosphere-surface coupling processes as central to Arctic system function and its climate change response. Despite this, the representation of surface turbulent flux parameterizations in models has not kept pace with our understanding. The large uncertainty in Arctic climate change projections, the central role of atmosphere-surface coupling, and the large discrepancy in model representation of surface turbulent fluxes indicates that these processes may serve as useful observational constraints on projected Arctic climate change. This possibility requires an evaluation of surface turbulent fluxes and their sensitivity to controlling factors (surface-air temperature and moisture differences, sea ice, and winds) within contemporary climate models (here Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6). The influence of individual controlling factors and their interactions is diagnosed using a multi-linear regression approach. This evaluation is done for four sea ice loss regimes, determined from observational sea ice loss trends, to control for the confounding effects of natural variability between models and observations. The comparisons between satellite- and model-derived surface turbulent fluxes illustrate that while models capture the general sensitivity of surface turbulent fluxes to declining sea ice and to surface-air gradients of temperature and moisture, substantial mean state biases exist. Specifically, the central Arctic is too weak of a heat sink to the winter atmosphere compared to observations, with implications to the simulated atmospheric circulation variability and thermodynamic profiles. Models were found to be about 50% more efficient at turning an air-sea temperature gradient anomaly into a sensible heat flux anomaly relative to observations. Further, the influence of sea ice concentration on the sensible heat flux is underestimated in models compared to observations. The opposite is found for the latent heat flux variability in models; where the latent heat flux is too sensitive to a sea ice concentration anomaly. Lastly, the results suggest that present-day trends in sea ice retreat regions may serve as suitable observational constraints of projected Arctic warming.

turbulent fluxes↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tailoring Growth Interfaces of Virtual Substrates for Power Electronics

Power electronics materials are poised to play a critical role in fulfilling next generation energy needs, with up to 90% of future energy demand predicted to flow through power electronics at some point.[1] Among a number of candidate materials, AlxGa1-xN is the strongest, having bipolar dopability, thermal and chemical stability, an ultra-wide bandgap, and demonstrated experimental feasibility. However, AlGaN growth is limited by a lack of lattice-matched substrates, ultimately stunting material quality at higher thicknesses needed for power electronics applications. Further, high power applications increasingly call for fully vertical device structures, necessitating a conductive substrate. [1] Recently our group identified the (111) plane of TaC as a conductive surface lattice-matched to Al0.55Ga0.45N, taking inspiration from prior work of AlN and GaN binaries on carbide and boride substrates. [2,3,4] In this talk we demonstrate the growth of (111)-oriented TaC by RF sputtering. We investigate the interface of TaC with sapphire and SiC substrates and identify means to suppress competing Ta2C nucleation in order to stabilize (111)-oriented TaC. Potential stacking sequences are identified with respect to crystal structure and observed twinning in the TaC films. We next assess structural changes and film recrystallization that results from face-to-face annealing of TaC thin films at high temperatures above 1500 degrees Celsius. Changes to grain structure and domain size are assessed by x-ray diffraction and surface morphology is explored using atomic force microscopy. Figure 1 shows significant improvements to in- and out-of-plane strain following annealing along with the formation of terraced step edges at the film surface. Strain as a function of material composition and thickness is considered, as this may play a major role in future nucleation of AlGaN layers.

CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND SU↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tailoring Growth Interfaces of Virtual Substrates for Power Electronics

Power electronics materials are poised to play a critical role in fulfilling next generation energy needs, with up to 90% of future energy demand predicted to flow through power electronics at some point. AlxGa1-xN ranks high among candidate materials, having bipolar dopability, thermal and chemical stability and an ultra-wide bandgap. However, AlGaN growth is limited by a lack of lattice-matched substrates, ultimately stunting material quality at higher thicknesses needed for power electronics applications. Further, high power applications increasingly call for fully vertical device structures, necessitating a conductive substrate. Recently our group identified the (111) plane of TaC as a conductive surface lattice-matched to Al0.55Ga0.45N, taking inspiration from prior work of AlN and GaN binaries on carbide and boride substrates. In this talk we demonstrate the growth of (111)-oriented TaC by RF sputtering. We investigate the interface of TaC with sapphire and SiC substrates and identify means to suppress competing Ta2C nucleation in order to stabilize (111)-oriented TaC. Potential stacking sequences are identified with respect to crystal structure and observed twinning in the TaC films. We next assess structural changes and film recrystallization that results from face-to-face annealing of TaC thin films at high temperatures above 1500 degrees C. Changes to grain structure and domain size are assessed by x-ray diffraction and surface morphology is explored using atomic force microscopy. Figure 1 shows significant improvements to in- and out-of-plane strain following annealing along with the formation of terraced step edges at the film surface. Strain as a function of material composition and thickness is considered, as this may play a major role in future nucleation of AlGaN layers. (1) R. J. in a face-to-face configuration, as illustrated in the schematic at left. Kaplar et al 2017, ECS J. Solid State Sci. Technol. 6 Q3061; (2) D. M. Roberts et al 2022, https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.11769; (3) T. Aizawa et al 2008, J Crys Growth 310, 1 22; (4) R. Liu et al 2002, Appl. Phys. Lett. 81, 3182-3184.

ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

hippynn Python Package

hippynn is a python package for defining, training, and applying neural networks to atomistic systems. In particular, it focuses on Hierarchical Interacting Particle Neural Networks (HIP-NNs), a deep learning architecture for atomistic systems. HIP-NNs take input data describing the properties of atomistic systems (often generated using ab-initio quantum mechanics) to learn fast and accurate models. A trained HIP-NN can predict potential energy surfaces, atomic charges, and more. hippynn uses PyTorch for portable high-performance code, including both CPU and GPU support. hippynn allows for extensive customization, including user-defined models and loss functions, to facilitate future research into extensions of HIP-NN as well as other atomistic deep learning models.

Lubbers, Nicolas↗
DOE OSTI2024

nrelWattileExt (SkySpark Wattile Extension) [SWR-24-73]

The NREL Wattile extension, nrelWattileExt, provides an interface between SkySpark, an energy management and analytics software, and Wattile, an NREL-developed Python package for probabilistic prediction of building energy consumption. Wattile models predict discrete quantiles of the probability distribution of a target quantity (typically energy consumption) using the historical time series data from one or more predictors (typically weather data). Within SkySpark, predictions from Wattile models can be used for measurement & verification of building performance, detection of energy anomalies, and fault detection. Related to: https://github.com/NREL/Wattile

Frank, Stephen↗
DOE OSTI2023

Can a deep-learning model make fast predictions of vacancy formation in diverse materials?

The presence of point defects, such as vacancies, plays an important role in materials design. Here, we explore the extrapolative power of a graph neural network (GNN) to predict vacancy formation energies. We show that a model trained only on perfect materials can also be used to predict vacancy formation energies (E vac ) of defect structures without the need for additional training data. Such GNN-based predictions are considerably faster than density functional theory (DFT) calculations and show potential as a quick pre-screening tool for defect systems. To test this strategy, we developed a DFT dataset of 530 E vac consisting of 3D elemental solids, alloys, oxides, semiconductors, and 2D monolayer materials. We analyzed and discussed the applicability of such direct and fast predictions. We applied the model to predict 192 494 E vac for 55 723 materials in the JARVIS-DFT database. Our work demonstrates how a GNN-model performs on unseen data.

2D materials↗
DOE OSTI2023

Limits on the Range and Rate of Change in Power Take-Off Load in Ocean Wave Energy Conversion: A Study Using Model Predictive Control

Previous work comparing power take-off (PTO) architectures for ocean wave-powered reverse osmosis suggests that variable displacement in the wave energy converter (WEC)-driven pump does not offer a significant performance advantage. A limitation of that study is that the WEC was subject to a constant load within a given sea state (“Coulomb damping”) and did not account for controlled, moment-to-moment variation of the PTO load enabled by a variable displacement pump. This study explores the potential performance advantage of a variable PTO load over Coulomb damping. Model predictive control is used to provide optimal load control with constraints on the PTO load. The constraints include minimum and maximum loads and a limit on the rate of load adjustment. Parameter studies on these constraints enable conclusions about PTO design requirements in addition to providing an estimated performance advantage over Coulomb damping. Numerical simulation of the Oyster 1 WEC is carried out with performance weighted by historical sea state data from Humboldt Bay, CA. The results show a performance advantage of up to 20% higher yearly-average power absorption over Coulomb damping. Additionally, the parameter studies suggest that the PTO load should be adjustable down to at least 25% of the maximum load and should be adjustable between the minimum and maximum loads within a few seconds.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

A machine learning approach for increased throughput of density functional theory substitutional alloy studies

In this study, a machine learning-based technique is developed to reduce the computational cost required to explore large design spaces of substitutional alloys. The first advancement is based on a neural network (NN) approach to predict the initial position of minority and majority ions prior to DFT relaxation. The second advancement is to allow the NN to predict the total energy for every possibility minority ion position and select the most stable configuration in the absence of relaxing each trial minority configuration. A bismuth oxide materials system, (Bi x La y Yb z ) 2 MoO 6 , was used as the model system to demonstrate the developed methods and quantify the resulting computational speedup. Compared to a brute force method that requires the calculation of every permutation of minority configuration and subsequent DFT relaxation, a 1.3× speedup was realized if the NN predicted the initial configuration of ions prior to relaxation. Implementation of the second advancement allowed the NN to predict the total energy for all possible trial configurations and downselect the most stable configurations prior to relaxation, resulting in a speedup of approximately 37×. Validation was done by comparing position and energy between the NN and DFT predictions. A maximum position vector mean squared error (MSE) of 1.6 × 10 -2 and a maximum energy MSE of 2.3 × 10 -7 was predicted for the worst case configuration. This method demonstrates a significant computational speedup, which has the potential for even greater computational savings for larger compositional design spaces.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1986

Sharply curved turn around duct flow predictions using spectral partitioning of the turbulent kinetic energy and a pressure modified wall law

Computational predictions of turbulent flow in sharply curved 180 degree turn around ducts are presented. The CNS2D computer code is used to solve the equations of motion for two-dimensional incompressible flows transformed to a nonorthogonal body-fitted coordinate system. This procedure incorporates the pressure velocity correction algorithm SIMPLE-C to iteratively solve a discretized form of the transformed equations. A multiple scale turbulence model based on simplified spectral partitioning is employed to obtain closure. Flow field predictions utilizing the multiple scale model are compared to features predicted by the traditional single scale k-epsilon model. Tuning parameter sensitivities of the multiple scale model applied to turn around duct flows are also determined. In addition, a wall function approach based on a wall law suitable for incompressible turbulent boundary layers under strong adverse pressure gradients is tested. Turn around duct flow characteristics utilizing this modified wall law are presented and compared to results based on a standard wall treatment.

Santi, L. Michael↗
NASA NTRS1973

Prediction of shuttle vehicle damping from component test results

A dissipative energy approach for predicting the damping of four-component space shuttle model by means of modal parameters obtained from tests of the individual components is presented. A relationship between modal damping energy per cycle and peak strain (or kinetic) energy is first determined empirically from test data for each component. Undamped analytical models of each component are also developed, and combined into a system model from which are obtained modal kinetic (or strain) energies for its respective modes. These data are then used with the empirical damping curves to apportion the proper amount of damping energy to each component in a combined system mode, and thereby allow a prediction of damping ratio. Some discrepancies in results are noted to occur because of incomplete modeling of connecting link mechanisms and anomalies in modal responses.

Kana, D. D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dimensional interpolation for metallic hydrogen

In this work, we employ a simple and mostly accurate dimensional interpolation formula using dimensional limits D = 1 and D = ∞ to obtain D = 3 ground-state energy of metallic hydrogen. We also present results describing the phase transitions for different symmetries of three-dimensional structure lattices. The interpolation formula not only predicts fairly accurate energies but also predicts a correct functional form of the energy as a function of the lattice parameters. That allows us to calculate different physical quantities such as the bulk modulus, Debye temperature, and critical transition temperature, from the gradient and the curvature of the energy curve as a function of the lattice parameters. These theoretical calculations suggest that metallic hydrogen is a likely candidate for high temperature superconductivity. The dimensional interpolation formula is robust and might be useful to obtain the energies of complex many-body systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Long-Term Vehicle Speed Prediction via Historical Traffic Data Analysis for Improved Energy Efficiency of Connected Electric Vehicles

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are expected to provide enhanced safety, mobility, and energy efficiency. While abundant evidence has been accumulated showing substantial energy saving potentials of CAVs through eco-driving, traffic condition prediction has remained to be the main challenge in capitalizing the gains. The coupled power and thermal subsystems of CAVs necessitate the use of different speed preview windows for effective and integrated power and thermal management. Real-time vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications can provide an accurate speed prediction over a short prediction horizon (e.g., 30 s to 60 s), but not for a long range (e.g., over 180 s). Therefore, advanced approaches are required to develop detailed speed prediction for robust optimization-based energy management of CAVs. This paper presents an integrated speed prediction framework based on historical traffic data classification and real-time V2I communications for efficient energy management of electrified CAVs. The proposed framework provides multi-range speed predictions with different fidelity over short and long horizons. The proposed multi-range speed prediction is integrated with an economic model predictive control (MPC) strategy for the battery thermal management (BTM) of connected and automated electric vehicles (EVs). The simulation results over real-world urban driving cycles confirm the enhanced prediction performance of the proposed data classification strategy over a long prediction horizon. Despite the uncertainty in long-range CAVs’ speed predictions, the vehicle-level simulation results show that 14% and 19% energy savings can be accumulated sequentially through eco-driving and BTM optimization (eco-cooling), respectively, when compared with normal driving (i.e., human driver) and conventional BTM strategy.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Two-Level Model Predictive Control-Based Approach for Building Energy Management including Photovoltaics, Energy Storage, Solar Forecasting and Building Loads

This paper uses a two-level model predictive control-based approach for the coordinated control and energy management of an integrated system that includes photovoltaic (PV) generation, energy storage, and building loads. Novel features of the proposed local controller include (1) the ability to simultaneously manage building loads and energy storage to achieve different operational objectives such as energy efficiency, economic cost efficiency, demand response and grid optimization through the design of specific power trajectory tracking performance functionals, (2) an energy trim function that minimizes the impact of solar forecasting errors on system performance, and (3) the design of a state of charge controller that uses day-ahead forecast of solar power and building loads to intialize energy storage at the start of each day. The local controller is tested in simulation using an exemplary system with PV generation, energy storage and dispatchable building loads. Two sample days with different PV forecasts and multiple case scenarios are considered, and the performance of the algorithm in managing the real and reactive net building load trajectories and the ramp rate of PV injections into the utility network are evaluated. The simulations are based on actual forecasted and measured PV data, and the results show that the local controller meets the tracking requirements for real and reactive power within the operating constraints of the building.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of particle size and moisture on flow performance of loblolly pine anatomical fractions: Experimental findings and model predictions

The rising energy demand has highlighted biomass as a promising next-generation energy source. However, commercializing biomass-derived energy faces challenges, particularly in handling biomass feedstock. Factors like particle size, shape, moisture content, and surface roughness significantly impact biomass flowability. This study addresses a crucial knowledge gap by examining the effects of particle size and moisture content on the flow behavior and shear properties of different anatomical fractions of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda). The bulk shear behavior was examined using a Schulze ring shear tester, while flow performance was tested through gravity-driven flow experiments in a variable wedge-shape hopper. Results were incorporated into empirical and machine learning-based flow prediction models to evaluate their accuracy and limitations. The study found that samples with higher moisture content show higher unconfined yield strength. The critical arching distance increased with particle size, e.g., from approximately 13 and 33 mm for 2- and 6-mm whole chips, respectively at a 32-degree inclination angle. Conversely, the flow rate decreased for a given hopper opening as particle size increased. For instance, at a 60-mm hopper opening and a 32-degree inclination angle, the mass flow rates for 2- and 6-mm whole chips were 7.83 and 6.42 tonne/h, respectively. The empirical model consistently overpredicted the mass flow rate for all anatomical fractions, while the machine learning model more accurately predicted the central tendency of flow rate but was insensitive to varying tissue proportions. These novel findings provide comprehensive characterization of anatomical fractions, reveal significant combined effects of particle size and moisture content on biomass flow behavior, and demonstrate a better predictive accuracy of a machine learning model, all of which are useful for optimizing material handling strategies and biomass utilization technologies in the industry.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗