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DOE OSTI2023

AGR TRISO Fuel Fission Product Release Data Summary

Knowledge of fission product retention in and release from TRISO fuel under normal and off-normal conditions is needed for reactor safety analyses. This is important for coated-particle fuel used in high-temperature reactors relying on the functional containment strategy. Data on the release and retention of key fission products (e.g., Ag-110m, Cs-134, Eu-154, and Sr-90) in AGR UCO TRISO fuels have been summarized in this report, and empirical relationships with respect to time and temperature were developed. This included fission product accumulation in the OPyC and compact graphitic matrix during irradiation, release from compacts during irradiation, and release during post-irradiation safety testing at temperatures from 1600-1800°C. The frequencies of SiC failure and TRISO coating failure from irradiation and post-irradiation safety testing were also summarized as they have bearing on the quantities of Cs release from the fuel. In a forthcoming publication, a framework for combining and using these empirical relationships as part of a source term analysis will be presented.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Certifying the Performance of Fixative Technologies under Open Air Demolition Activities for D and D - 20096

Department of Energy (DOE) facilities undergoing deactivation and decommissioning (D and D) activities struggle with safety concerns of residual radioactive contamination leftover after gross decontamination efforts have concluded. The positive effects of implementing fixative technologies for decommissioning and maintenance is known across the DOE complex. However, there is no standardized metric in place that quantifies the performance of these technologies such as incombustible fixative platforms that immobilize the contamination in a solid polymer material under normal operating conditions or when exposed to stressors. The primary focus of this research is to provide the empirical data necessary to properly characterize the effects of implementing fixative technologies on mitigating the release of contamination. In addition, this effort has been used to identify and establish uniform testing protocols to quantify operational parameters of fixating platforms and properly credit such systems under a variety of operational conditions and stressors that can arise during open air demolition efforts (e.g. impact, water, thermal, etc.). The established protocols will be provided to the ASTM International E10.03 Subcommittee on Radiological Protection for Decontamination and Decommissioning of Nuclear Facilities and Components for the potential of formal standardization. Attributes to be addressed during testing are material compromise from impact stress, thermal stress for incombustible fixative materials, and immobilization factors (how well an immobilizing platform is capable of retaining fixated material during thermal and impact stressors). In developing these test methods, a greater understanding of the material's behavior under anticipated and unanticipated events, such as decommissioning activities and contingency events as outlined in the Basis of Interim Operations (BIO), can be successfully characterized. There are several key components of the experimental methodology that is essential in empirically certifying fixative technologies. A surrogate contaminant with a unique signature has been utilized with the implementation of a uniform contamination process of test coupons that is quantifiable and replicable for direct fixative comparisons. A modular test chamber has also been used to apply the various stressors of interest. Collection of released contamination that includes airborne and resettled contaminant particles and analyzed using mass spectrometry. This research directly supports DOE complex-wide concerns in terms of final disposition of nuclear facilities and the considerations made during their time between ceasing facility operation and final disposition. The results of this effort aims to provide a standardized road map and logical decision flow to better facilitate fixative technologies into D and D activities required to achieve the desired facility end state. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

GIS-Based Modeling of Contaminated Soil Volumes at Multiple Sites in the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program - 20149

The remediation of hazardous, toxic, and radioactive waste (HTRW) sites produces cost-related risks associated with the estimation of contaminated soil or debris volumes. Historical risk-management techniques include cost contingencies to cover volume uncertainties that affect project budgeting and decision-making. The Buffalo District teamed with project partners to lessen volume uncertainty and reduce project risks at multiple HTRW sites managed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Historical remedial investigations under FUSRAP commonly identified the presence of radiological material in site media, the associated human health risk, and then areas of remediation. To manage remedial execution and reduce risk, pre-design or remediation-phase sampling essentially 'chased' contamination, which was not conducive to efficient predictive budgeting derived from Feasibility Study (FS) cost analyses. The Buffalo District first optimized their approach to better understand volume uncertainty by utilizing the Argonne National Laboratory's Bayesian Approaches for Adaptive Spatial Sampling (BAASS) software [1]. BAASS processed soft data (e.g., gamma walk-over data) and spatial sampling data to estimate the lateral extent of contaminated soil irrespective of depth (i.e., gross contamination extent) and define areas of contaminant uncertainty. The software performed a binary transformation of contaminant concentrations at all sampling points based upon remedial action goals or a sum of ratios approach (i.e., clean, impacted, or range of impacts in soil). The model produced two-dimensional (horizontal) contaminant probability contours and statistical uncertainty in the sampling coverage and resulting contaminant extents. This method was translated vertically by partitioning the sampling data into depth brackets that produced a stacked representation of contaminant extents and uncertainty in the subsurface (i.e., similar to construction lifts). The results commonly led to a better understanding of project uncertainty and the need for sampling strategies that produce high-confidence soil volumes, which control costs. The BAASS-based delineations were eventually replaced by Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) methods available in ArcGIS Spatial or 3D Analysts [2]. The EBK method calculates contaminant probability zones derived from user-controlled semivariograms of the spatial datasets. The resulting probability zones (e.g., 50% or 80% of contaminant probability) represent the two-dimensional surface delineation of the overall horizontal remedial area, similarly to BAASS. However, unlike BAASS, the vertical sampling data within these probability zones became vertical control points to contour a subterranean surface that connects subsurface points to the land-surface delineations of contamination. The resulting representation of horizontal and vertical impacts within an enclosed envelop (volume) of soil included uncertainty distributions that are used to plan uncertainty-reduction sampling. These data-driven and math-based models of three-dimensional sampling results produced well-bounded remedial volumes for project planning and better uncertainty predictions during project budgeting. The EBK method was applied to several FUSRAP sites managed by the Buffalo District and compared to less rigorously modeled sites previously remediated by the District. The comparison of modeled to actual remediated volumes provide a basis for validating the volume-estimation method. This comparison is important to ensure modeled volumes match physical boundaries of site remediation. FUSRAP sites with denser investigative sampling and lesser volume uncertainty proved useful in remedial planning and contracting. The Buffalo District noted that historical sites with sparser sampling arrays had greater disparity between estimated volumes and final remedial volumes. The benefit achieved over the cost of detailed soil sampling appears positive for FUSRAP projects, especially where impacts vary widely and appear unbounded by investigation-phase sampling. The subsequent Empirical Bayesian Kriging of contamination coupled with vertical contouring for soil estimations reduces uncertainty in soil volumes or indicates where sampling is required to reduce uncertainty, which together optimize remedial planning and budgeting. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reactor Containment Passive Safety Analysis: Steam Condensation in Presence of Non-condensable Gas Scaled Experiment and Modeling

This study presents steam condensation scaled experiments and semi-empirical models in presence of nitrogen (N)—a noncondensable gas (NCG), simulating air in the reactor containment—to support water-cooled small modular reactors (SMRs) passive containment cooling system (PCCS) design and analysis. Previous experimental studies on PCCS are focused on fixed and smaller tube (mostly 2-in.) geometries and specific test condition variations, bringing challenges with geometric scaling and mismatching with SMR prototypic design. To address these challenges, this study presents steam condensation test dataset obtained from three scaled test sections of 1-, 2-, and 4-in.-diameter steam condensers with an annular/jacket cooling of 2-, 3-, and 6 in.-diameter tubes, respectively. Test data were collected for steam ranges from 58 to 63 kg/hr., and NCG flow of 4.4 to 13.3 kg/hr. Annular cooling water flow was varied to obtain required testing conditions of saturated steam inlet and fully condensed outlet. Axial temperature test data of bulk cooling water, steam and condensate were collected by thermocouples for three test sections and various steam-NCG mixing/testing conditions. A standard data reduction method was adopted—utilizing iterative and nodalized mass and heat transfer calculation—to estimate axial local heat fluxes, heat transfer coefficients (HTCs), condensation rates, film thickness, and Nusselt number. Based on the obtained dataset semi-empirical model results—a ratio of experimental and Nusselt’s theoretical HTC are presented. Such results and findings are supportive of developing scaled-up testing facility, to enable model validations and accelerate next generation of reactors development and deployment

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

SMALL UNMANNED MARINE HYDROKINETIC PLATFORMS FOR POWER GENERATION IN COASTAL AND TIDAL WATERS

The feasibility and optimization of small unmanned mobile marine hydrokinetic (MHK) energy platforms for harvesting marine current energy in coastal and tidal waters are examined. A case study of a platform based on the use of a free-surface waterwheel (FSWW) mounted on an autonomous unmanned surface vehicle (USV) was conducted. Such platforms can serve as recharging stations for aerial drones (UAVs), enabling extension of the UAVs’ autonomous operating time. An unmanned MHK platform potentially meets this need with sustainable power harvested from water currents. For the case study, six different waterwheel configurations were field-tested in the Intracoastal Waterway of South Florida in support of determining the configuration that produced the most power. Required technologies for unmanned operations of the MHK platform were developed and tested. The data from the field-testing were analyzed to develop an empirical relation between the wheel’s theoretical hydrokinetic power produced and the mechanical power harnessed by the MHK platform with various waterwheel configurations during field-testing. The field data was also used to determine the electrical power generated by the FSWW configurations during field-testing. The study has led to the development of standardized testing procedures. The empirical relation is used to examine predicted power production through scaling up different physical aspects of the waterwheel.

McKinney, Adriana↗

DOE OSTI2024

Presentation: Reactor Containment Passive Safety Analysis: Steam Condensation in Presence of Non-condensable Gas Scaled Experiment and Modeling

This study presents steam condensation scaled experiments and semi-empirical models in presence of nitrogen--a noncondensable gas (NCG), simulating air in the reactor containment--to support water-cooled small modular reactors (SMRs) passive containment cooling system (PCCS) design and analysis. Previous experimental studies on PCCS are focused on fixed and smaller tube (mostly 2-in.) geometries and specific test condition variations, bringing challenges with geometric scaling and mismatching with SMR prototypic design. To address these challenges, this study presents steam condensation test dataset obtained from three scaled test sections of 1-, 2-, and 4-in.-diameter steam condensers with an annular/jacket cooling of 2-, 3-, and 6 in.-diameter tubes, respectively. Test data were collected for steam ranges from 58 to 63 kg/hr., and NCG flow of 4.4 to 13.3 kg/hr. Annular cooling water flow was varied to obtain required testing conditions of saturated steam inlet and fully condensed outlet. Axial temperature test data of bulk cooling water, steam and condensate were collected by thermocouples for three test sections and various steam-NCG mixing/testing conditions. A standard data reduction method was adopted--utilizing iterative and nodalized mass and heat transfer calculation to estimate axial local heat fluxes, heat transfer coefficients (HTCs), condensation rates, film thickness, and Nusselt number. Based on the obtained dataset semi-empirical model results--a ratio of experimental and Nusselt's theoretical HTC are presented. Such results and findings are supportive of developing scaled-up testing facility, to enable model validations and accelerate next generation of reactors development and deployment.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reduced-Order CFD Modeling to Support Waste Loading Optimization in Hanford WTP Vitrification

The U.S. DOE Hanford Site stores over 56 million gallons of radioactive liquid tank waste that must be treated and immobilized for long-term disposal The Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) will vitrify this waste by feeding it into Joule-heated melters, where it is incorporated into a stable borosilicate glass Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of glass melters can provide insight into the maximum achievable waste loading under varying melter operating conditions Fully resolved VOF multiphase simulations were used as the reference model to capture bubble-driven convection in the melter, including bubble formation, rise behavior, and induced glass melt circulation Effective bubble column diameter and rise velocity were extracted from the resolved simulations, compared with empirical correlations, and refit across relevant viscosity and gas flow rate conditions Explicit gas–liquid interface tracking was replaced with a single-phase momentum source term model, enabling faster steady-state CFD simulations while preserving the dominant hydrodynamic effects of bubbling New empirical correlations were developed for effective bubble column diameter and bubble rise velocity by fitting resolved simulation data across expected melter viscosity and gas flow rate ranges, providing improved inputs for the momentum source term model compared with existing literature correlations The momentum source term model reduced fluid-domain mesh size by 89% and achieved an 8.4× computational speedup relative to resolved bubbling simulations The validated momentum source term approach enables prediction of process-relevant heat transfer behavior in the integrated melter model, including heat transfer from the molten glass to the cold cap, plenum, refractory walls, and surrounding structural regions under varying melter operating conditions

12 - MGMT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Understanding the use of message passing interface in exascale proxy applications

The Exascale Computing Project (ECP) focuses on the development of future exascale-capable applications. Most ECP applications use the message passing interface (MPI) as their parallel programming model with mini-apps serving as proxies. This paper explores the explicit usage of MPI in such ECP proxy applications. We empirically analyze 14 proxy applications from the ECP Proxy Apps Suite. We use the MPI profiling interface (PMPI) to collect MPI usage patterns in ECP proxy apps. Our analysis shows that a small subset of features from MPI is commonly used in the proxies of exascale-capable applications, even when they reference third-party libraries. Overall, this study is intended to provide a better understanding of the use of MPI in current exascale applications. The findings can help focus software investments made for exascale systems in the MPI middleware including optimization, fault-tolerance, tuning, and hardware-offload.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

A nonparametric approach to modeling dependence among production parameters for energy cost estimation

Dependence existing among production parameters can significantly affect energy costs. For material removal processes, processing times and material amounts to be cut have positive dependence, and the dependence can affect energy costs by varying a peak electricity load. Existing methods to model the dependence of production parameters are based on parametric approaches that cannot accurately represent the dependence due to the rigid nature of parametric models. To address this issue, this study proposes a method to quantify dependence among manufacturing parameters through the application of the empirical copula to the dependence between the milling processing time and the amount of volume to be cut. The proposed method is illustrated by a case study of a manufacturing facility consisting of milling machines; a total of 27 scenarios are simulated for energy cost estimations. The case study clearly shows that the proposed method can capture the dependence between the milling parameters more accurately than a conventional dependence measure from parametric correlation models. Furthermore, the findings from this study would be useful to estimate energy costs in that the proposed method provides a better fit to real production data than conventional parametric approaches can.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Geospatial coherence of surface-atmosphere fluxes in the upper Great Lakes region

Surface-atmosphere fluxes are known to vary at multiple time scales, but uncertainty is high as to how fluxes change spatially within regions. With an increase in the number of eddy covariance towers, we are now able to examine the geospatial coherence of ecosystem fluxes, using time-series correlation. Eighteen sites from Michigan and Wisconsin were used in this study, ranging from 100 m to 600 km apart. Surface-atmosphere fluxes from a six-month period were used to quantify spatial coherence on a pair-wise basis. Using geospatial statistics, carbon and sensible heat (H) fluxes were found to be 95% correlated directly outside of their flux footprint and 56% correlated up to a distance of ~35 km. Latent (LE) and momentum (τ) fluxes were less correlated, 83% directly outside of their flux footprint and 40% at a distance of ~130 km albeit, at a much larger spatial distance than for the carbon and sensible heat fluxes. All fluxes showed strong spectral resonance at diel and seasonal timescales, with 1-, 2- and 3-month periods being common modes of variability among H, LE, and τ fluxes. Results based on Empirical Orthogonal Function show distinct transitions of net ecosystem exchange from fall to winter before photosynthesis or respiration while H and τ do not exhibit coherent trends. Here, this work demonstrates the potential of quantifying geospatial coherence of surface-atmosphere fluxes in the Midwestern United States, with the ability to predict fluxes beyond the spatial limit of a single flux tower footprint. Ultimately, expanding the flux measurements to larger scales would allow better spatial scaling of terrestrial surface-atmosphere fluxes between tower footprint and modeling or remote sensing scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of time-frequency-analysis techniques applied in building energy data noise cancellation for building load forecasting: A real-building case study

Time-frequency analysis that disaggregates a signal in both time and frequency domain is an important supporting technique for building energy analysis such as noise cancellation in data-driven building load forecasting. There is a gap in the literature related to comparing various time–frequency-analysis techniques, especially discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and empirical mode decomposition (EMD), to guide the selection and tuning of time–frequency-analysis techniques in data-driven building load forecasting. This article provides a framework to conduct a comprehensive comparison among thirteen DWT/EMD techniques with various parameters in a load forecasting modeling task. A real campus building is used as a case study for illustration. The DWT and EMD techniques are also compared under various data-driven modeling algorithms for building load forecasting. The results in the case study show that the load forecasting models trained with noise-cancelled energy data have increased their accuracy to 9.6% on average tested under unseen data. This study also shows that the effectiveness of DWT/EMD techniques depends on the data-driven algorithms used for load forecasting modeling and the training data. Hence, DWT/EMD-based noise cancellation needs customized selection and tuning to optimize their performance for data-driven building load forecasting modeling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Feasibility of DEIM for retrieving the initial field via dimensionality reduction

When parameter estimation is solved in a high-dimensional space, the dimensionality reduction strategy becomes the primary consideration for alleviating the tremendous computational cost. Here, the discrete empirical interpolation method (DEIM) is explored to retrieve the initial condition (IC) by combining the polynomial chaos (PC) based ensemble Kalman filter (i.e. PC-EnKF), where a non-intrusive PC expansion is considered as a surrogate model in place of the forward model in the prediction step of the ensemble Kalman filter, resulting in fewer forward model integrations but with a comparable accuracy as Monte Carlo-based approaches. The DEIM acts as a hyper-reduction tool to provide the low-dimensional input for the high-dimensional initial field, which can be reconstructed using the information on the sparse interpolation grid points that is adaptively obtained through PC-EnKF data assimilation method. Thus an innovative framework to reconstruct the IC is developed. The detailed procedure at each assimilation iteration includes: the determination of the spatial interpolation points, the estimation of the initial values on the interpolation locations using the optimal observations, and the reconstruction of IC in the full space. The current study uses the reconstruction field of initial conditions of the Navier-Stokes equations as an example to illustrate the efficacy of our method. The experimental results demonstrate the proposed algorithm achieves a satisfactory reconstruction for the initial field. The proposed method helps to extend the applicable area of DEIM in solving inverse problems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Proper orthogonal decomposition based reduced-order modeling of flux-Limited gray thermal radiation

Here, in this work, a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) based reduced-order model (ROM) is developed to solve gray, flux-limited thermal radiation diffusion. We focus on the variable opacity radiation penetration benchmark posed by Olson, Auer, and Hall. The T -3 relationship for opacity in conjunction with high-temperature radiation penetrating an initially cold material produces a strong thermal radiation shock. This class of problems is particularly challenging for standard POD-based reduced-order modeling due to the nonlinearities presented by 1) the T 4 source term, and 2) flux-limited diffusion operator. To address these challenges and develop a cost competitive ROM, we employ a “hyper-reduction” technique through discrete empirical interpolation (DEIM) and allow for adaptive reduced-order projections through principal interval decomposition (PID). Performance of the proposed methodology is quantified by comparing the cost savings and accuracy relative to a full-order computation. Reference solutions and snapshot data are obtained through a full-order calculation performed by the University of Chicago maintained astrophysics code, FLASH. For consistency and potential extensibility, the developed ROM is also implemented in FLASH. We find that in the initialization regime, where the thermal radiation wave is initially created by the warming of the material, this class of problems is highly reducible and suitable for POD-based ROMs. However, the strong convective nature of the wave propagation regime is less reducible and more challenging to create an efficient ROM.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

On detrending stream velocity time series for robust tidal flow turbulence characterization

We investigated the impact of detrending techniques on turbulence quantities from tidal stream flow data, focusing on the autocorrelation function, $ρ_{uu}$, and velocity spectrum, $Φ(f)$. Standard detrending methods, including high-pass frequency-based and polynomial-based techniques, are examined, alongside a proposed alternative method, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Our results highlight that intervals of flow acceleration and deceleration, typical in tidal and riverine flows, significantly affect the estimation of turbulence quantities using high-pass frequency filtering and polynomial detrending of varying orders. These methods can strongly influence $ρ_{uu}$ and $Φ(f)$, thereby affecting the accurate estimation of derived quantities. We examine two variations of detrending data using EMD; the first removes only the EMD residue, and the second removes both the residue and the largest scale intrinsic mode function (IMF). By comparing the detrended spectra with the modeled von Kármán spectra, we demonstrate that the second variation (i.e., removing the residue and the largest scale IMF) successfully removed the large-scale trend of the data while retaining the energy of other scales.

Detrend↗

DOE OSTI2021

An uncertainty-focused database approach to extract spatiotemporal trends from qualitative and discontinuous lake-status histories

Changes in lake status are often interpreted as palaeoclimate indicators due to their dependence on precipitation and evaporation. The Global Lake Status Database (GLSDB) has since long provided a standardised synopsis of qualitative lake status over the last 30,000 14C years. Potential sources of uncertainty however are not recorded in the GLSDB. Here we present an updated and improved relational-database framework that incorporates uncertainty in both chronology and the interpretation of palaeoenvironmental data. The database uses peer-reviewed palaeolimnological studies to produce a consensus on qualitative lake-status histories, whose chronologies are revised and standardized through the recalibration of radiocarbon dates and the application of Bayesian age-depth modelling for stratigraphic archives. Quantitative information on absolute water-level elevation is preserved if available from geomorphological sources. We also propose a new probabilistic analytical framework that accounts for these uncertainties to reconstruct synoptic, integrated environmental signals. The process is based on a Monte Carlo algorithm that iteratively samples individual lake-status histories within the limits of their uncertainties to produce many possible scenarios. We then use Recursively-Subtracted Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis to extract dominant patterns of lake-status variability from these scenarios. As a proof of concept, we apply this framework to 67 sites in eastern and southern Africa whose lake-status histories cover part of the late Pleistocene and/or Holocene. We show that, despite the sometimes large temporal and interpretation uncertainties, and the inclusion of highly discontinuous lake-status time series, identifying the major known millennial-scale climatic phases during the last 20,000 years is possible. Our framework was also able to identify an antiphased response between the lake basins in eastern and interior southern Africa to these changes. Here, we propose that our new database and methodology framework serves as a template for efficient lake-status data synthesis, encourages the incorporation of lake-status data in palaeoclimate syntheses, and expands the possibilities for the use of such data in the evaluation of climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probing the Damage Zone at Parkfield

Rocks are heterogeneous materials that exhibit nonlinear elastic (anelastic) behavior at scales ranging from the laboratory to Earth. In the laboratory, typical, complex relationships exist between stress and strain that include hysteresis, finite relaxation times, strain rate, and history dependence. These behaviors are linked to important characteristics such as stress, porosity, permeability, material integrity, and material failure. In this work, we adopted a “pump-probe” type experiment common in laboratory studies, using solid earth tides as the low-frequency pump and empirical Green's function as the high-frequency probe. By probing the velocity at different points in the pump cycle, we constrained important information about the strain-modulus relationship. Near the San Andreas Fault, we observed strongly nonlinear elastic behavior that characterizes the damage zone. We also constrained important aspects of hysteretic behavior that are related to damage properties and possibly pore pressure. Away from the fault, the nonlinear behavior is diminished.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Future Climate Projections for South Florida: Improving the Accuracy of Air Temperature and Precipitation Extremes With a Hybrid Statistical Bias Correction Technique

Projecting future climate variables is essential for comprehending the potential impacts on hydroclimatic hazards like floods and droughts. Evaluating these impacts is challenging due to the coarse spatial resolution of global climate models (GCMs); therefore, bias correction is widely used. Here, we applied two statistical methods—standard empirical quantile mapping (EQM) and a hybrid approach, EQM with linear correction (EQM-LIN)—to bias correct precipitation and air temperature simulated by nine GCMs. We used historical observations from 20 weather stations across South Florida to project future climate under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Compared to the EQM, the hybrid EQM-LIN method improved R 2 of daily quantiles by up to 30% over the historical period and improved MAE up to 70% in months that contain most extreme values. Projected extreme precipitation at the weather stations showed that, compared to the EQM-LIN, the EQM method underestimates the high quantiles by up to 26% in SSP585. The projected changes in annual maximum precipitation from historical period (1985–2014) to near future (2040–2069) and far future (2070–2100) were between 2% and 16% across the study area. Projected future precipitation suggested a slight decrease during summer but an increase in fall. This, along with rising summer temperatures, suggested that South Florida can experience rapid oscillations from warmer summers and increased flooding in fall under future climate. Additionally, our comparative analyses with globally and nationally downscaled studies showed that such coarse scale studies do not represent the climatic extremes well, particularly for high quantile precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Chlorophyll- a dynamics in the lower Amazon River: insights from in situ and hyperspectral remote sensing using OCI-PACE

Chlorophyll-a concentration (Chla) is a key indicator of phytoplankton biomass and aquatic trophic status. However, satellite-derived Chla in sediment-rich waters, such as those found in the Lower Amazon River, remains challenging. The present study characterizes in situ Chla levels and their relationships with geographic, physical, and biogeochemical parameters in the Lower Amazon. Data collected between 2014 and 2017 across four hydrological seasons included measurements of Chla, remote sensing reflectance, and water quality parameters such as total suspended sediment, conductivity, water surface temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, dissolved organic carbon and coloured dissolved organic matter. An empirical model was developed to estimate Chla using simulated hyperspectral bands from NASA’s PACE mission, achieving high performance (R 2 = 0.76; RMSE = 0.11 μg·L −1 ). Red bands proved particularly effective for Chla retrieval, while the addition of ultraviolet bands further enhanced model accuracy. The application of the developed model to satellite imagery yielded results consistent with in situ observations for the same hydrologic season. Seasonal variation and geographic location were major factors influencing Chla dynamics. This study provides a novel contribution to Chla estimation in optically complex, highly turbid waters and highlights the potential of the PACE mission to enhance global aquatic ecosystem monitoring. In conclusion, by offering freely available hyperspectral data with high radiometric resolution, PACE represents a significant advancement in the realm of remote sensing of aquatic environments.

Amazon River↗