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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Data-model files associated with the manuscript "The Effects of Spatial and Temporal Resolution of Gridded Meteorological Forcing on Watershed Hydrological Responses" (Shuai et al., 2022 HESS)

This data package contains the model inputs and outputs used in "The Effects of Spatial and Temporal Resolution of Gridded Meteorological Forcing on Watershed Hydrological Responses" (Shuai et al., 2022 HESS). The data.zip file contains the data used to drive the model simulations. The model.zip file contains the XML input file for ATS. The notebook.zip file contains the Jupyter notebooks for pre- and post- processing model results. The figures.zip file contains the raw figures associated with the manuscript.Meteorological forcing plays a critical role in accurately simulating the watershed hydrological cycle. With the advancement of high-performance computing and the development of integrated watershed models, simulating the watershed hydrological cycle at high temporal (hourly to daily) and spatial resolution (10s of meters) has become efficient and computationally affordable. These hyperresolution watershed models require high resolution of meteorological forcing as model input to ensure the fidelity and accuracy of simulated responses. In this study, we utilized the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated watershed model, to simulate surface and subsurface flow and land surface processes using unstructured meshes at the Coal Creek Watershed near Crested Butte (Colorado). We compared simulated watershed hydrologic responses including streamflow, and distributed variables such as evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent (SWE), and groundwater table driven by three publicly available, gridded meteorological forcings (GMFs) -- Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries (Daymet), Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). By comparing various spatial resolutions (ranging from 400 m to 4 km) of PRISM, the simulated streamflow only becomes marginally worse when spatial resolution of meteorological forcing is coarsened to 4 km (or 30% of the watershed area). However, the 4 km resolution has much worse performance than finer resolution in spatially distributed variables such as SWE. Using temporally disaggregated PRISM, we compared models forced by different temporal resolutions (hourly to daily), sub-daily resolution preserves the dynamic watershed responses (e.g., diurnal fluctuation of streamflow) that are absent in results forced by daily resolution. Conversely, the simulated streamflow shows better performance using daily resolution compared to that using sub-daily resolution. Our findings suggest that the choice of GMF and its spatiotemporal resolution depends on the quantity of interest and its spatial and temporal scale, which may have important implications on model calibration and watershed management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Size Resolved Measurements of Springtime Aerosol Particles over the Northern South China Sea

Large sources of aerosol particles and their precursors are ubiquitous in East Asia. Such sources are known to impact the South China Sea (henceforth SCS), a sometimes heavily polluted region that has been suggested as particularly vulnerable to climate change. To help elucidate springtime aerosol transport into the SCS, an intensive study was performed on the remote Dongsha (aka Pratas) Islands Atoll in spring 2010. As part of this deployment, a Davis Rotating-drum Uniform size-cut Monitor (DRUM) cascade impactor was deployed to collect size-resolved aerosol samples at the surface that were analyzed by X-ray fluorescence for concentrations of selected elements. HYSPLIT backtrajectories indicated that the transport of aerosol observed at the surface at Dongsha was occurring primarily from regions generally to the north and east. This observation was consistent with the apparent persistence of pollution and dust aerosol, along with sea salt, in the ground-based dataset. In contrast to the sea-level observations, modeled aerosol transport suggested that the westerly flow aloft (w700 hPa) transported smoke-laden air toward the site from regions from the south and west. Measured aerosol optical depth at the site was highest during time periods of modeled heavy smoke loadings aloft. These periods did not coincide with elevated aerosol concentrations at the surface, although the model suggested sporadic mixing of this free-tropospheric aerosol to the surface over the SCS. A biomass burning signature was not clearly identified in the surface aerosol composition data, consistent with this aerosol type remaining primarily aloft and not mixing strongly to the surface during the study. Significant vertical wind shear in the region also supports the idea that different source regions lead to varying aerosol impacts in different vertical layers, and suggests the potential for considerable vertical inhomogeneity in the SCS aerosol environment.

South China Sea↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effects of spatial and temporal resolution of gridded meteorological forcing on watershed hydrological responses

Abstract. Meteorological forcing plays a critical role in accurately simulating the watershed hydrological cycle. With the advancement of high-performance computing and the development of integrated watershed models, simulating the watershed hydrological cycle at high temporal (hourly to daily) and spatial resolution (tens of meters) has become efficient and computationally affordable. These hyperresolution watershed models require high resolution of meteorological forcing as model input to ensure the fidelity and accuracy of simulated responses. In this study, we utilized the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated watershed model, to simulate surface and subsurface flow and land surface processes using unstructured meshes at the Coal Creek Watershed near Crested Butte (Colorado). We compared simulated watershed hydrologic responses including streamflow and distributed variables such as evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent (SWE), and groundwater table driven by three publicly available, gridded meteorological forcings (GMFs) – Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries (Daymet), the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). By comparing various spatial resolutions (ranging from 400 m to 4 km) of PRISM, the simulated streamflow only becomes marginally worse when spatial resolution of meteorological forcing is coarsened to 4 km (or 30 % of the watershed area). However, the 4 km-resolution has much worse performance than finer resolution in spatially distributed variables such as SWE. Using the temporally disaggregated PRISM, we compared models forced by different temporal resolutions (hourly to daily), and sub-daily resolution preserves the dynamic watershed responses (e.g., diurnal fluctuation of streamflow) that are absent in results forced by daily resolution. Conversely, the simulated streamflow shows better performance using daily resolution compared to that using sub-daily resolution. Our findings suggest that the choice of GMF and its spatiotemporal resolution depends on the quantity of interest and its spatial and temporal scale, which may have important implications for model calibration and watershed management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Examining the effects of soil entrainment during nuclear cloud rise on fallout predictions using a multiscale atmospheric modeling framework

Current operational models for nuclear cloud rise over land were developed and validated using observations from shallow-buried or surface detonations, where lofted soil quickly mixed with fission products from the detonation. These models poorly predict fallout from elevated detonations near the fallout-free height of burst (FFHOB), where interactions with the ground are limited and the mixing of fission products and lofted soil is incomplete. Fallout-free is a misnomer at this HOB, as fallout was observed in these cases, but was below the levels of concern, especially off-grounds of the nuclear test site. To correctly characterize and model fallout from detonations near the FFHOB, models must be developed which can capture the stratified nature of the particle and activity-size distributions within the cloud. Previously, it was shown that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can accurately simulate nuclear cloud rise for airbursts with little to no ground interactions (Arthur et al., 2021). That work is expanded here by (1) using a radiation-hydrodynamics code to improve the fireball initialization in WRF, (2) further developing an aerosol package from WRF-Chem to simulate lofted soil, and (3) combining the WRF cloud rise simulations with the operational models used at the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) for fallout modeling. Using this combination of codes, the Upshot-Knothole Grable detonation, which was just below the FFHOB, is simulated from seconds after detonation through cloud rise and fallout, and results are compared to historical test data. Here, the results show improved prediction of dose rate and highlight the need to correctly characterize the entrainment of material into the cloud and the subsequent mixing of fission products with entrained material.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography Satellite Mission - An Assessment of Swath Altimetry Measurements of River Hydrodynamics

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission, scheduled for launch in 2020 with development commencing in 2015, will provide a step-change improvement in the measurement of terrestrial surface water storage and dynamics. In particular, it will provide the first, routine two-dimensional measurements of water surface elevations, which will allow for the estimation of river and floodplain flows via the water surface slope. In this paper, we characterize the measurements which may be obtained from SWOT and illustrate how they may be used to derive estimates of river discharge. In particular, we show (i) the spatia-temporal sampling scheme of SWOT, (ii) the errors which maybe expected in swath altimetry measurements of the terrestrial surface water, and (iii) the impacts such errors may have on estimates of water surface slope and river discharge, We illustrate this through a "virtual mission" study for a approximately 300 km reach of the central Amazon river, using a hydraulic model to provide water surface elevations according to the SWOT spatia-temporal sampling scheme (orbit with 78 degree inclination, 22 day repeat and 140 km swath width) to which errors were added based on a two-dimension height error spectrum derived from the SWOT design requirements. Water surface elevation measurements for the Amazon mainstem as may be observed by SWOT were thereby obtained. Using these measurements, estimates of river slope and discharge were derived and compared to those which may be obtained without error, and those obtained directly from the hydraulic model. It was found that discharge can be reproduced highly accurately from the water height, without knowledge of the detailed channel bathymetry using a modified Manning's equation, if friction, depth, width and slope are known. Increasing reach length was found to be an effective method to reduce systematic height error in SWOT measurements.

Wilson, Matthew D.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Viscoplastic Model Development to Account for Strength Differential: Application to Aged Inconel 718 at Elevated Temperature

The magnitude of yield and flow stresses in aged Inconel 718 are observed to be different in tension and compression. This phenomenon, called the Strength differential (SD), contradicts the metal plasticity axiom that the second deviatoric stress invariant alone is sufficient for representing yield and flow. Apparently, at least one of the other two stress invariants is also significant. A unified viscoplastic model was developed that is able to account for the SD effect in aged Inconel 718. Building this model involved both theory and experiments. First, a general threshold function was proposed that depends on all three stress invariants and then the flow and evolution laws were developed using a potential-based thermodynamic framework. Judiciously chosen shear and axial tests were conducted to characterize the material. Shear tests involved monotonic loading, relaxation, and creep tests with different loading rates and load levels. The axial tests were tension and compression tests that resulted in sufficiently large inelastic strains. All tests were performed at 650 C. The viscoplastic material parameters were determined by optimizing the fit to the shear tests, during which the first and the third stress invariants remained zero. The threshold surface parameters were then fit to the tension and compression test data. An experimental procedure was established to quantify the effect of each stress invariant on inelastic deformation. This requires conducting tests with nonproportional three-dimensional load paths. Validation of the model was done using biaxial tests on tubular specimens of aged Inconel 718 using proportional and nonproportional axial-torsion loading. These biaxial tests also helped to determine the most appropriate form of the threshold function; that is, how to combine the stress invariants. Of the set of trial threshold functions, the ones that incorporated the third stress invariant give the best predictions. However, inclusion of the first stress invariant does not significantly improve the model predictions. The model shows excellent predictive capability for nonproportional load paths. Additionally, it reduces to the well-known models of Mises Drucker and Drucker-Prager. The requisite experiments involve reasonably simple load paths in the axial-shear stress plane and hence can be performed on a variety of different materials: be they metallic, geological. polymeric, ceramic or granular. The general form of the threshold function allows representation of inelastic deformation in a range of materials.

Iyer, Saiganesh↗
NASA NTRS2019

NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.1 - Software User Guide

This National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) 3.1 Software User Guide accompanies delivery of the latest upgraded version of the model, ORDEM 3.1. The user guide also provides a top-level program description and a list of capabilities. It includes descriptions of runtime error and information codes, input/output file formats, runtimes for different orbit configurations, and how to use uncertainty files. ORDEM 3.1 supersedes the previous NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) models – ORDEM 3.0 (Stansbery, et al. 2014) and ORDEM2000 (Liou, et al. 2002). The availability of new sensor and in situ data, re-analysis of older data, and development of new analytical techniques has enabled the construction of this more comprehensive and sophisticated model. An upgraded graphical user interface (GUI) is integrated with the software. This upgraded GUI uses project-oriented organization and provides the user with graphical representations of numerous output data products. For example, these range from the conventional flux vs. average debris size (or altitude bin) for chosen analysis orbits (or views) to the more complex color-contoured, two-dimensional (2-D) directional flux diagrams in local spacecraft elevation and azimuth. The current model, ORDEM 3.1, supports spacecraft as well as telescope/radar project assessments. ORDEM 3.1 contains updated debris populations covering low Earth orbit (LEO, up to 2000 km altitude) to geosynchronous orbit (GEO, up to 40,000 km altitude) and can assess debris calculations up to year 2050, extending coverage past the previous limit of 2035 in ORDEM 3.0. Although populations differ from its predecessor, ORDEM 3.1 is functionally the same as ORDEM 3.0 and can support ORDEM 3.0 projects through backward compatibility.

Vavrin, Andrew B.↗
NASA NTRS2023

NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.2 – Software User Guide

This National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) 3.2 Software User Guide accompanies delivery of the latest upgraded version of the model, ORDEM 3.2. The user guide also provides a top-level program description and a list of capabilities. It includes descriptions of runtime error and information codes, input/output file formats, runtimes for different orbit configurations, and how to use uncertainty files. ORDEM 3.2 supersedes the previous NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) models – ORDEM 3.0 (Stansbery, et al. 2014) and ORDEM2000 (Liou, et al. 2002). The availability of new sensor and in situ data, re-analysis of older data, and development of new analytical techniques has enabled the construction of this more comprehensive and sophisticated model. An upgraded graphical user interface (GUI) is integrated with the software. This upgraded GUI uses project-oriented organization and provides the user with graphical representations of numerous output data products. For example, these range from the conventional flux vs. average debris size (or altitude bin) for chosen analysis orbits (or views) to the more complex color-contoured, two-dimensional (2-D) directional flux diagrams in local spacecraft elevation and azimuth. The current model, ORDEM 3.2, supports spacecraft as well as telescope/radar project assessments. ORDEM 3.2 contains updated debris populations covering low Earth orbit (LEO, up to 2000 km altitude) to geosynchronous orbit (GEO, up to 40,000 km altitude) and can assess debris calculations up to year 2050, extending coverage past the previous limit of 2035 in ORDEM 3.0. Although populations differ from its predecessor, ORDEM 3.2 is functionally the same as ORDEM 3.0 and can support ORDEM 3.0 projects through backward compatibility.

Andrew Vavrin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecast from the North American Multi-Model ensemble phase II (NMME-2) over the contiguous U.S.

The second phase of the North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME-2) provides globally available Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecasts with a daily resolution. The S2S precipitation forecasts are getting increasing attention for their potentials in providing hydrometeorological forcing information for water resources planning at an extended range. However, the forecast skills of many existing S2S forecast products will significantly decrease when the lead time increases, hindering their applicability for watershed-scale hydrologic modeling. Therefore, forecast validation and large-scale evaluation are of great importance for water resources planning and hydrological applications. In this study, we comprehensively evaluate the S2S precipitation forecasts from the NMME-2 dataset over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and during the study period from 1982 to 2011. Three aspects of precipitation forecast capabilities are compared and analyzed: bias, skill scores, and the ability to predict extreme precipitation events. The Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) is used as ground truth reference. Differs from other regional forecast validation study, we further examined and analyzed the dependences of NMME-2 precipitation forecast skills according to different seasonality, geographical locations, and lead times. Results show that the forecast biases are not sensitive to lead times but are seasonally dependent of all NMME-2 models. Overestimations are found in the Western U.S. in cooler seasons while underestimations are observed in the central regions of the U.S. in warmer seasons. The forecast skill of all individual NMME-2 models generally decreases as increases of lead times. The simple model averaging (SMA) of five NMME-2 models demonstrates a higher forecast skill than any individual NMME-2 models. Spatially, the highest forecast skill scores are observed at coastal areas in the Western U.S. with an one-week lead time. As compared to the historical resampled forecasts, NMME-2 also shows better performance in predicting extreme precipitation events above 99% percentiles and below 1% percentiles with higher probability of detections and lower false alarm ratios. Finally, the obtained results suggest the great potentials of NMME-2 precipitation forecasts in assisting ensemble hydrologic forecasts at the S2S scale over the CONUS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

ROADRUNNER uranium nitride MiniFuel: Experimental design, fabrication and pre-irradiation baseline characterization for accelerated burnup testing

Uranium nitride (UN) is a promising fuel candidate for advanced reactor systems owing to its high uranium density and thermal conductivity; however, its qualification remains constrained by the scarcity of well-controlled irradiation performance data. Here, to address this limitation, the ROADRUNNER (Research On ADvancing the peRformance of UraNium Nitrides in Extreme enviRonments) campaign employs the MiniFuel platform in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) to enable accelerated burnup irradiation testing under tightly controlled and largely isothermal conditions. This paper presents the experimental design, fuel fabrication, and pre-irradiation baseline characterization of the ROADRUNNER UN MiniFuel campaign. Thirty-six UN minidisc specimens were fabricated with systematically varied as-fabricated density (86–96% of theoretical density), carbon impurity content (961–5240 ppm), oxygen content (≤ ∼2000 ppm), and grain size (2.5–24 μm). The irradiation matrix spans nominal fuel temperatures of 873 K, 1173 K, and 1473 K and target burnups of 3.75%, 6.0%, and 7.5% fissions per initial metal atom (FIMA). Neutronic and thermal analyses were performed to define specimen-specific burnup accumulation and temperature histories, establishing the boundary conditions for subsequent in-pile behavior. Comprehensive pre-irradiation characterization—including dimensional metrology, density verification, impurity analysis, X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy, X-ray computed tomography, and confocal profilometry—provides a detailed baseline for post-irradiation examination. Pre-irradiation data were further used to generate predictive estimates of fission gas release and swelling using existing empirical correlations. This quantitative comparison reveals substantial inter-model divergence at intermediate and elevated temperatures that exceeds propagated input uncertainties, highlighting structural gaps in the historical irradiation database. The ROADRUNNER irradiation campaign is currently underway in HFIR, with initial firs cycle completed in late 2025 and remaining targets scheduled through 2027. The experimental design and baseline dataset presented here establish the framework needed to interpret forthcoming post-irradiation measurements and to provide discriminating data for the validation and refinement of physics-based UN fuel performance models.

Lopes, Denise Adorno [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗
NASA NTRS1991

Axial and torsional fatigue behavior of a cobalt-base alloy

In order to develop elevated temperature multiaxial fatigue life prediction models for the wrought cobalt-base alloy, Haynes 188, a multiaxial fatigue data base is required. To satisfy this need, an elevated temperature experimental program on Haynes 188 consisting of axial, torsional, inphase and out of phase axial-torsional fatigue experiments was designed. Elevated temperature axial and torsional fatigue experiments were conducted under strain control on thin wall tubular specimens of Haynes 188 in air. Test results are given.

Bonacuse, Peter J.↗
NASA NTRS1995

SOFIA 2 model telescope wind tunnel test report

This document outlines the tests performed to make aerodynamic force and torque measurements on the SOFIA wind tunnel model telescope. These tests were performed during the SOFIA 2 wind tunnel test in the 14 ft wind tunnel during the months of June through August 1994. The test was designed to measure the dynamic cross elevation moment acting on the SOFIA model telescope due to aerodynamic loading. The measurements were taken with the telescope mounted in an open cavity in the tail section of the SOFIA model 747. The purpose of the test was to obtain an estimate of the full scale aerodynamic disturbance spectrum, by scaling up the wind tunnel results (taking into account differences in sail area, air density, cavity dimension, etc.). An estimate of the full scale cross elevation moment spectrum was needed to help determine the impact this disturbance would have on the telescope positioning system requirements. A model of the telescope structure, made of a light weight composite material, was mounted in the open cavity of the SOFIA wind tunnel model. This model was mounted via a force balance to the cavity bulkhead. Despite efforts to use a 'stiff' balance, and a lightweight model, the balance/telescope system had a very low resonant frequency (37 Hz) compared to the desired measurement bandwidth (1000 Hz). Due to this mechanical resonance of the balance/telescope system, the balance alone could not provide an accurate measure of applied aerodynamic force at the high frequencies desired. A method of measurement was developed that incorporated accelerometers in addition to the balance signal, to calculate the aerodynamic force.

Keas, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Multiphysics Multiscale Simulation Platform for Damage, Environmental Degradation, and Life Prediction of CMCs in Extreme Environments

This project successfully developed a multiphysics, multiscale computational framework to enhance the design and development of CMCs, with a focus on modeling highly nonlinear, time-dependent damage mechanisms and material degradation under extreme conditions, such as those experienced in turbine service environments. The project made significant advances in improving our understanding of progressive damage, oxidative degradation, and time-dependent inelastic deformation in CMCs, with particular attention to the role of uncertainties in predictions. Key outcomes include the integration of advanced material characterization, uncertainty quantification, and multiphysics constitutive models to predict the behavior of CMCs over their service life. A novel multiscale methodology was employed, which integrated microscale constituent behaviors with structural-scale responses, enabling the manufacturing defects in the microstructure that are prone to damage nucleation. Through the development of DL algorithms, the project advanced the prediction of damage initiation and crack propagation, taking into account the defect morphology and statistical variations across multiple scales. The framework was rigorously validated using thermomechanical experiments, which tested CMCs under various mechanical loadings at elevated temperatures, further enhancing the model's predictive capability. Overall, the research outcomes have provided a more accurate, reliable method for predicting CMC component life, significantly advancing material design, and improving component reliability in extreme environments. This work has strong implications for the optimization of turbine components and other high-performance applications where CMCs are used.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Modeling of Firn Compaction for Estimating Ice-Sheet Mass Change from Observed Ice-Sheet Elevation Change

Changes in ice-sheet surface elevation are caused by a combination of ice-dynamic imbalance, ablation, temporal variations in accumulation rate, firn compaction and underlying bedrock motion. Thus, deriving the rate of ice-sheet mass change from measured surface elevation change requires information on the rate of firn compaction and bedrock motion, which do not involve changes in mass, and requires an appropriate firn density to associate with elevation changes induced by recent accumulation rate variability. We use a 25 year record of surface temperature and a parameterization for accumulation change as a function of temperature to drive a firn compaction model. We apply this formulation to ICESat measurements of surface elevation change at three locations on the Greenland ice sheet in order to separate the accumulation-driven changes from the ice-dynamic/ablation-driven changes, and thus to derive the corresponding mass change. Our calculated densities for the accumulation-driven changes range from 410 to 610 kg/cu m, which along with 900 kg/cu m for the dynamic/ablation-driven changes gives average densities ranging from 680 to 790 kg/cu m. We show that using an average (or "effective") density to convert elevation change to mass change is not valid where the accumulation and the dynamic elevation changes are of opposite sign.

Li, Jun↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

Abstract This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of TC track, intensity, and size are perturbed according to quasi-random Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of hydrodynamic storm tide model simulations. The resulting set of maximum water surface elevations are dimensionality reduced using Karhunen–Loève expansions and then used as a training set to develop a polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate model from which global sensitivities and probabilistic predictions can be extracted. The maximum water surface elevation is extrapolated over dry points incorporating energy head loss with distance to properly train the surrogate for predicting inundation. We find that the surrogate constructed with third-order PCs using elastic net penalized regression with leave-one-out cross validation provides the most robust fit across training and test sets. Probabilistic predictions of maximum water surface elevation and inundation area by the surrogate model at 48-h lead time for three past U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Laura in 2020) are found to be reliable when compared to best track hindcast simulation results, even when trained with as few as 19 samples. The maximum water surface elevation is most sensitive to perpendicular track-offset errors for all three storms. Laura is also highly sensitive to storm size and has the least reliable prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology that can be used to provide high-quality probabilistic predictions of hurricane-induced storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. This is important for emergency management purposes during or after the landfall of hurricanes. Our results show that sampling forecast errors using quasi-random sequences combined with machine learning techniques that fit polynomial functions to the data are well suited to this task. The polynomial functions also have the benefit of producing exact sensitivity indices of storm tide and inundation to the forecasted hurricane properties such as path, intensity, and size, which can be used for uncertainty estimation. The code implementing the presented methodology is publicly available on GitHub.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Amplification of Heat Extremes by Plant CO2 Physiological Forcing

Plants influence extreme heat events by regulating land-atmosphere water and energy exchanges. The contribution of plants to changes in future heat extremes will depend on the responses of vegetation growth and physiology to the direct and indirect effects of elevated CO2. Here we use a suite of earth system models to disentangle the radiative versus vegetation effects of elevated CO2 on heat wave characteristics. Vegetation responses to a quadrupling of CO2 increase summer heat wave occurrence by 20 days or more-30-50% of the radiative response alone-across tropical and mid-to-high latitude forests. These increases are caused by CO2 physiological forcing, which diminishes transpiration and its associated cooling effect, and reduces clouds and precipitation. In contrast to recent suggestions, our results indicate CO2-driven vegetation changes enhance future heat wave frequency and intensity in most vegetated regions despite transpiration-driven soil moisture savings and increases in aboveground biomass from CO2 fertilization.

Skinner, Christopher B.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Mechanical Behavior and Analytical Modeling of Melt-Infiltrated SiC/SiC Woven Composite

The desirable properties in ceramic matrix composites (CMCs), such as high temperature strength, corrosion resistance, high toughness, low density, or good creep resistance have led to increased use of CMCs in high-speed engine structural components and structures that operate in extreme temperature and hostile aero-thermo-chemical environments. Ceramic matrix composites have been chosen for turbine material in the design of 21st century civil propulsion systems to achieve high fuel economy, improved reliability, extended life, and reduced cost. Most commercial CMCs are manufactured using a chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) process. However, a lower cost fabrication known as melt-infiltration process is also providing CMCs marked for use in hot sections of high-speed civil transports. Limited samples of a SiC/SiC melt-infiltrated woven composites are being investigated at room and elevated temperature below and above matrix cracking. These samples show graceful failure and toughness at room temperature with a reduction in strength and modulus at elevated temperatures. A generic finite element model is also being developed to predict monotonic and cyclic loading behavior of the woven composite. Use of the initial test data from the woven composite is being used for the development of the analytical model. This model is the first of a iterative process leading towards the development the model's capability to predict behavior at room and elevated temperature for monotonic and cyclic loading. The purpose of this paper is to report on the material and mechanical findings of the SiC/SiC melt-infiltrated woven composite and progress on the development of the finite element model.

Lang, J.↗
NASA NTRS1924

Tests on a model of the D.F.W. airplane T-29 of the "Deutsche Flugzeug derke" (German airplane works)

Experiments similar to those carried out with the A.E.G (Allgemeine Elektrizitats-Gesellschaft) were made in the small wind tunnel of the Gottingen laboratory on a model of the D.F.W. airplane T-29. Three series of tests were carried out on the model with a velocity head (or dynamic pressure) of 5 kg/sq m (1.02 lb/sq ft), during which one of the movable surfaces was deflected at various angles, while both the others were retained in their central positions. Of special interest among the results of the tests is the different run of the elevating moments. The curves for the A.E.G. model, rising to the right, denote stability with the elevator locked, while the slight inclination to the left with the D.F.W model denotes a slight instability. For the maximum C(sub L) values, the stability of A.E.G. model continues to increase and the instability of the D.F.W. model is converted into stability. The rolling moments shown when the angular deflection of the ailerons is 0 degrees are due, in both series of tests, to the unequal distribution of the air velocity over the cross section of the wind tunnel, rather than to a lack of symmetry in the model.

Molthan, Wilhelm↗