Results for “electric sector” — Page 35

DOE OSTI2025

Grid Value Analysis of Geothermal Systems for End-Use Applications

Fuel based end-uses for residential, commercial, and industrial consumers require a technology change to achieve economy-wide decarbonization. Space heating accounts for 42% of residential and 32% of commercial energy demand, much of which is currently met through carbon emitting fuels. Industrial energy use is heavily fuel based with electricity currently representing 13% of energy demand. Geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) and geothermal direct use can eliminate the need for CO2 emitting and simultaneously allow for more efficient electrification of end uses. Past work has assessed the impact on total energy costs and generation investments but did not identify specific grid services benefited. Energy usage in residential and commercial structures was assessed by leveraging data from ComStock and ResStock models. These models utilize housing attributes, occupancy patterns, weather data, and sophisticated energy simulations to generate hourly load profiles for individual buildings identified by unique IDs associated with their locations. Industrial sector energy use was evaluated using information from the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) as well as plant utilization data from the US Census to estimate hourly plant operations. The change in end-use demand for electricity, natural gas, and other fuels was calculated for different technologies that could meet this need. Using the ReEDS capacity expansion model, we produce regional price profiles that capture the grid benefit associated with the amount and timing of energy shifts in the power system from the adoption of geothermal systems relative to other technologies that could meet space heating, space cooling, and process heat requirements. We find that geothermal systems for meeting end-use demand add value to the energy system. In buildings where geothermal systems increase grid costs, these values are offset by reduced fuel costs and benefits to externalities, including emissions and health impacts.

decarbonization↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The reliability, cost and performance of electrical connectors are a concern in all types of electrical systems, and demands on connectors used on photovoltaic (PV) systems include that connectors maintain electrical conductivity and physical strength, endure ultraviolet sunlight and high ambient temperature, and resist moisture and chemical intrusion over a very long (>25 year) performance period. Connector failures increase operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduce plant production, but connector failure can also cause safety and liability problems, which are of greater concern. This work results from a three-year collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) under Agreements #39035 and #38531 "Connector Reliability Across the US Solar Sector." a multi-pronged investigation of PV connector health across the US (see https://energy.sandia.gov/pvconnectors/). This report presents derivation of a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that models failure modes and frequencies (how often failure occurs), estimates O&M costs and lost production associated with connector failures, and then calculates the effect that PV module connectors can have on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The model is informed with initial data from quantitative assessment of failure rates, root causes and mechanisms, in-situ diagnostics and data collection, lab-based forensics, and interviews with PV connector manufacturers and plant operators. SNL conducted site inspections at multiple utility-scale sites in different climates and subjected field samples of new, used, and degraded connectors to visual and electrical characterization. EPRI conducted metallurgical analysis of the pin and sleeve conductors to study failure-induced morphological and compositional changes. There is in general a shortage of statistically valid data, but data from PVROM database maintained by SNL was sufficient to ascertain failure rates and lost production as well as provide qualitative insight in its curated maintenance records. This report details the structure of the mathematical model but the sources of data to inform the model will continue to evolve. Analysis of a 100 MW PV plant is provided as an example of the use of the model, with results indicating that connectors are responsible for Annualized O&M Costs of $\$$71,933/year; Annualized Unit O&M Costs of $\$$0.72/kW/year; that a Reserve Account of $\$$187,220 should be available to fund repairs related to connectors; that connectors add $\$$1,494,004 to the Net Present Value of the O&M Costs (project life); and that O&M related to connectors adds about $\$$0.00088/kWh to the Levelized Cost of Energy. The impact of this model is to provide a tool to make the US solar sector more robust by quantifying and monetizing the reliability risks to utility-scale PV systems posed by poorly installed, mismatched and/or poorly designed and manufactured connectors. The TEA provides a model incorporating failure statistics, O&M cost data, and lost production into a single figure of merit, informing decisions and enabling practitioners to optimize cost and performance trade-offs. Stakeholders include connector manufacturers, system designers and equipment specifiers, standards bodies, installers and O&M providers, investors and insurance underwriters. This report supports continued growth of PV predicated on assurances that properly installed and maintained PV system connectors are safe and reliable. The project team is proposing future work including accelerated testing of connectors and expanding the approach taken here to other PV system components, such as TEA for rapid shut-down devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? (Final Economic Impact Results) [Slides]

The Village of Questa, New Mexico is aiming to become a regional clean energy hub with robust and diverse employment opportunities for the local community supported by the energy sector and by other businesses inspired or attracted by abundant clean energy, outdoor recreation, and cultural opportunities. A coalition of stakeholders in the Village of Questa, comprising the Village, Kit Carson Electric Cooperative (KCEC), Questa Economic Development Fund, and Chevron, is exploring options to develop hydrogen production facilities as an opportunity to create jobs, provide reliable clean energy, and utilize former mine resources. Questa is home to a molybdenum mine owned by Chevron that closed in 2014. Several residents in Questa and surrounding communities lost their jobs when the mine closed and transitioned from active operations into environmental remediation. Although remediation efforts have been ongoing since 2014 and are expected to continue for at least 16 more years, the number of jobs with Chevron is much smaller now than it was before the closure. Between available workforce, brownfield land, and water rights formerly supporting mine operations but now in a transition period, there are considerable local resources that could be directed toward clean energy generation. Questa's electricity supply is already 100% solar during daylight hours thanks to Kit Carson Electric Cooperative's (KCEC's) strategic decision-making and partnering over the last decade. Now, Questa, KCEC, and Chevron are exploring the potential costs and benefits of siting an electrolytic hydrogen production facility and additional solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Questa to further advance the region's clean energy economy. In this report, we estimated the potential economic impacts (i.e., jobs, value added, gross output, tax revenue) of constructing and operating a combined hydrogen (32 MW polymer electrolyte membrane electrolizer + 7.5 MW fuel cell) and solar facility (22.5 MW) in the Village of Questa, as well as the resulting economic spillovers to Taos County and the state of New Mexico. We employ an input-output model that leverages IMPLAN's economic data for the region complemented by construction and operating expenses estimated by NREL and feedback from the local coalition to evaluate the direct, indirect and induced effects of the project construction (transient impacts) and operation (more permanent impacts). Based on the area's average trade profile, feedback from the coalition and current market conditions, these projects are expected to support 487 full-time equivalent jobs during construction, generating $\$24$ million in income for those workers and $\$82$ million in local economic activity in the state. Of those jobs, 106 are expected to be construction sector jobs. These investments are also estimated to add $\$36.5$ million to New Mexico's gross state product (GSP). In the Village of Questa, we estimate 16 jobs will be supported in construction and transportation industries, generating $\$0.9$ million in earnings. In Taos County, the construction phase is expected to support 285 jobs primarily in construction and professional services, while manufacturing jobs dominate the results for the Rest of New Mexico. The Village is also estimated to receive $\$0.9$ million in tax revenue from the construction phase alone. Once in operation, the project continues to impact the state and Questa. Around 20 jobs (full-time equivalent for each year of operation) are supported across New Mexico, with approximately 11 directly employed in Questa by both facilities. The total annual local economic activity supported by ongoing operations is just over $\$1.3$ million/yr, generating $\$1.6$ million/yr in additional income in the state. Annual operations are estimated to add $\$2.1$ million to the state's GSP. The Village is expected to receive around $\$43,000$/yr in tax revenue. Impacts vary significantly depending on which businesses are supplying materials, equipment and services, and where construction workers reside. Choosing local suppliers will most benefit Questa and the New Mexico economy, adding up to 500 jobs during construction and 13 long-term jobs. Local and state governments may consider ways to incentivize local businesses in order to maximize economic benefits.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? Final Economic Impact Results

The Village of Questa, New Mexico is aiming to become a regional clean energy hub with robust and diverse employment opportunities for the local community supported by the energy sector and by other businesses inspired or attracted by abundant clean energy, outdoor recreation, and cultural opportunities. A coalition of stakeholders in the Village of Questa, comprising the Village, Kit Carson Electric Cooperative (KCEC), Questa Economic Development Fund, and Chevron, is exploring options to develop hydrogen production facilities as an opportunity to create jobs, provide reliable clean energy, and utilize former mine resources. Questa is home to a molybdenum mine owned by Chevron that closed in 2014. Several residents in Questa and surrounding communities lost their jobs when the mine closed and transitioned from active operations into environmental remediation. Although remediation efforts have been ongoing since 2014 and are expected to continue for at least 16 more years, the number of jobs with Chevron is much smaller now than it was before the closure. Between available workforce, brownfield land, and water rights formerly supporting mine operations but now in a transition period, there are considerable local resources that could be directed toward clean energy generation. Questa's electricity supply is already 100% solar during daylight hours thanks to Kit Carson Electric Cooperative's (KCEC's) strategic decision-making and partnering over the last decade. Now, Questa, KCEC, and Chevron are exploring the potential costs and benefits of siting an electrolytic hydrogen production facility and additional solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Questa to further advance the region's clean energy economy. In this report, we estimated the potential economic impacts (i.e., jobs, value added, gross output, tax revenue) of constructing and operating a combined hydrogen (32 MW polymer electrolyte membrane electrolizer + 7.5 MW fuel cell) and solar facility (22.5 MW) in the Village of Questa, as well as the resulting economic spillovers to Taos County and the state of New Mexico. We employ an input-output model that leverages IMPLAN's economic data for the region complemented by construction and operating expenses estimated by NREL and feedback from the local coalition to evaluate the direct, indirect and induced effects of the project construction (transient impacts) and operation (more permanent impacts). Based on the area's average trade profile, feedback from the coalition and current market conditions, these projects are expected to support 487 full-time equivalent jobs during construction, generating $\$24$ million in income for those workers and $\$82$ million in local economic activity in the state. Of those jobs, 106 are expected to be construction sector jobs. These investments are also estimated to add $\$36.5$ million to New Mexico's gross state product (GSP). In the Village of Questa, we estimate 16 jobs will be supported in construction and transportation industries, generating $\$0.9$ million in earnings. In Taos County, the construction phase is expected to support 285 jobs primarily in construction and professional services, while manufacturing jobs dominate the results for the Rest of New Mexico. The Village is also estimated to receive $\$0.9$ million in tax revenue from the construction phase alone. Once in operation, the project continues to impact the state and Questa. Around 20 jobs (full-time equivalent for each year of operation) are supported across New Mexico, with approximately 11 directly employed in Questa by both facilities. The total annual local economic activity supported by ongoing operations is just over $\$1.3$ million/yr, generating $\$1.6$ million/yr in additional income in the state. Annual operations are estimated to add $\$2.1$ million to the state's GSP. The Village is expected to receive around $\$43,000$/yr in tax revenue. Impacts vary significantly depending on which businesses are supplying materials, equipment and services, and where construction workers reside. Choosing local suppliers will most benefit Questa and the New Mexico economy, adding up to 500 jobs during construction and 13 long-term jobs. Local and state governments may consider ways to incentivize local businesses in order to maximize economic benefits.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing Potential Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions from Plug-In Electric Vehicles: Report for CRC Project, "Carbon Return on Investment for Electrified Vehicles"

Investment in battery and electrification technologies has the potential to greatly reduce vehicular greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) will have zero tailpipe emissions. However, there will be GHG emissions associated with production of the vehicle including its battery, and with any carbon-emitting electricity sources used to charge the vehicle. This study explores the GHG reduction benefits of different plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) designs in the context of factors such as electricity production mix, per-vehicle battery requirements, and varying battery market growth scenarios. The analyses focus on the U.S. light-duty vehicle (LDV) market, which accounts for nearly 60% of U.S. transportation sector GHG emissions - over twice as much as the next largest contributing transportation sub-sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy innovation in the US buildings sector: Setting the stage and mapping the future

Jared Langevin is a staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, where he leads modeling of US buildings sector innovation and its implications for energy demand, consumer costs, and the power grid. Eric Wilson is a senior research engineer in the Building Technologies and Sciences Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Much of his 15-year career at NREL has revolved around modeling and analysis of the US building stock. Jared and Eric co-led the development of a National Blueprint for buildings sector innovation while serving as advisors to the US Department of Energy’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Buildings and Industry.

Langevin, Jared↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Potential Future Demands for Hydrogen in the United States

H2@Scale is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiative that brings together stakeholders to advance the affordable production, transport, storage, and utilization of hydrogen (H2) as an energy carrier to increase revenue opportunities in multiple energy sectors. The focus of the current work is to characterize the growth potential of diverse hydrogen industries in the United States, given research and development (R&D) advancements in hydrogen technologies. Current and emerging hydrogen production technologies utilize diverse energy sources, including natural gas (NG) reforming, as well as renewable and nuclear power for low-temperature and high-temperature water splitting. The produced hydrogen also enables emerging domestic industries that value conventional and renewable hydrogen as an energy carrier for intermediate and end use. The success of H2@Scale (Figure ES.1) depends not only on hydrogen demand from growing existing markets such as petroleum refining and ammonia (NH 3 ) production, but also on the development of new markets such as metals refining, synthetic fuel (synfuel) and chemical production, biofuels, light-duty (LD) and heavy-duty (HD) hydrogen fuel cell (FC) electric vehicles (FCEVs), and injection into NG pipelines, all of which can significantly increase hydrogen demand relative to current levels of approximately10 million metric tons [MMT] annually. This study focused primarily on five demand sectors — synfuels, upgrading of oil/biomass, NH 3 /fertilizer, metals refining, and hydrogen vehicles (transportation) — along with gas infrastructure. For each sector, a hydrogen demand potential was quantified, along with a “threshold price.” The hydrogen demand potential reflects a practical amount of hydrogen that could be used in that sector, barring economic considerations. The threshold price reflects the price at which the consumer would utilize hydrogen in lieu of an alternative that could supply the same performance.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Highly Resolved Reference Projections of Building Energy Use for the Contiguous United States: Building Sector Energy Baselines, Projection Methods, and Results

This report describes one methodology of projecting energy consumption of the US residential and commercial building sectors using NREL's ResStock™ and ComStock™ as well as growth rates derived from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The impetus for this work is to provide an intermediate method for compiling demand-side sectoral energy projections that is suitable for grid-scale analysis, such as NREL's Standard Scenarios. ResStock and ComStock are physics-based and statistically representative building stock models of the US residential and commercial sector, respectively. Using the 2012 actual meteorological year (AMY) weather data, the sectoral energy baselines are simulated and then segmented along key dimensions (e.g., geography, dwelling/building type). The segmented results are then scaled using the corresponding annual growth rates derived from the 2021 AEO reference case to produce energy projections out to 2050. The compiled result is a demand-side grid model (dsgrid) data set suitable for use in NREL's large-scale grid models, such as the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS). This simple projection method does not endogenously represent how the building stock could evolve through time. Most notably, it does not reflect large-scale electrification, for example, the conversion of space heating, water heating, clothes drying, and cooking from primary fossil fuels to electricity, as this is not part of AEO's reference case assumptions. Nonetheless this approach is more resolved and potentially extensible compared to the current method used by Standard Scenarios's reference case, which augments a sector's total load based on a single growth rate from AEO.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment Report. Volume 3: Energy Saving Opportunity

This report seeks to inform the potential for motor systems to support decarbonization by estimating their potential energy, electricity cost, and CO 2 emissions reduction potential from adoption of proven energy efficiency actions and advanced technologies. This is the third and final report in a series of reports disseminating the findings of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Motor System Market Assessment (MSMA). The MSMA and this report focus on polyphase motor systems greater than or equal to 1 horsepower (hp) in the industrial and commercial sectors. In the U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment Report Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base (Volume 1 report), it was determined that these motor systems consume more than 1,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually. This equates to 29% of the U.S. electric grid load and results in 765 million metric tons (MMT) of CO 2 emissions and $166 billion in electricity costs. This report finds that substantial reductions to these energy, cost, and emissions impacts are possible, with three areas of significant opportunity being (1) improved load matching, (2) replacing older inefficient motors with more efficient motors, and (3) improving the condition of fluid (e.g., air, water, compressed air) distribution systems. A summary of the savings potential from these three opportunities placed within the context of the overall consumption for motor systems is illustrated in Figure ES 1 (industrial) and Figure ES 2 (commercial).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Budget-Constrained Sizing of Renewable and Energy Storage Systems for Farm-Scale Ammonia Production Within the Food-Energy-Water Nexus

In the transition toward sustainable agriculture, farms have emerged as eco-friendly pioneers, harnessing clean hybrid wind and solar systems to improve farm performance. A concern in this paradigm is the effective sizing of renewable energy systems to ensure optimal energy use within budget considerations. This research focuses on optimizing renewable energy sizing in small-scale ammonia production to meet specific farm demands and enhance local resilience, emphasizing the interplay between environmental and economic factors. These findings promise increased energy efficiency and sustainability in this innovative agricultural sector. Additionally, our approach considers small-scale ammonia plant needs and the dynamic relationships between ammonia, water, and farm demands. Simulations demonstrate substantial cost savings in farm electricity consumption. Specifically, scenarios with renewable energy integration in the farm can reduce at least 13% electricity cost compared to a grid-dependent system in the 15-year simulation.

ammonia↗

DOE OSTI2025

Low-Cost Identification and Monitoring of Diverse MELs in Residential and Commercial Buildings with PowerBlade (Final Technical Report)

This report describes our progress in developing a scalable wireless metering system that integrates plug-load energy meters that measure real, reactive, and apparent power along with load monitoring based on extracting high-fidelity electrical waveform features collected at every load to capture power profiles and automatically identify and categorize MELs, and make this technology available to the research, commercial, and government sectors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Renewable Energy for Industrial Environmental Management

Costs for renewable energy technologies have declined rapidly in the past decade and their use for residential, commercial, and utility scale electricity has grown exponentially as they become cost competitive. Simultaneously, industrial and manufacturing processes have been increasingly seeking ways to reduce emissions and operational costs in highly competitive sectors. With these combined drivers of lower cost and reduced environmental impact, renewable energy may become a viable energy provider for industrial processes such as oil and gas, mining, chemical refining, food production, and manufacturing. Renewable energy technologies may also partner with other reduced emission energy sources, such as small modular nuclear reactors and carbon capture and utilization, to create cleaner and circular industrial systems for reduced resource use. The Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA), which is a partnership of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and five universities and others, has been studying to potential for application of clean energy technologies to the heterogenous energy demands in industry. Dr. Jill Engel-Cox will present an overview of NREL and JISEA, the status and potential future of renewable energy technologies, and collaborations with the oil and gas industry and other industrial sectors to improve their environmental performance and reduce operational costs.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advancing Understanding of Geothermal Representation in the Power Sector to Accelerate Deployment

Driven mostly by decarbonization goals, geothermal interest in the US power sector has grown considerably, gradually evolving from being considered a niche technology, to being recognized as a viable source of clean, baseload, grid-balancing power, and renewable electric power generation. Furthermore, recent technical advances that could greatly accelerate deployment in the near future, and US federal incentives for low-carbon generation technologies, including geothermal, can enable opportunities for integrating geothermal into utilities resource planning portfolios. However, in general, utilities do not have in-house expertise to evaluate geothermal technologies and its potential role in helping decarbonize the grid as well as help them achieve their individual decarbonization goals. To date, geothermal is rarely included in Capacity Expansion Models (CEM) which utilities use in their planning activities and resource/technologies prioritization. To this end, EPRI and NREL are working together in a DOE-GTO funded research project to improve geothermal understanding (opportunities, value, risks) among the power industry to help accelerate geothermal deployment. In the present paper we describe the approach and preliminary findings of this work, focused on two topics: 1) Expand the degree of understanding on the value, opportunity, and risk of geothermal technologies among utilities and related companies/groups, specifically around geothermal for power generation. 2) Improve representation of geothermal power technologies in capacity expansion models (CEM).

capacity expansion models↗

DOE OSTI2023

Harmonized geospatial data to support infrastructure siting feasibility planning for energy system transitions

Climate change, energy system transitions, and socioeconomic change are compounding influences affecting the growth of electricity demand. While energy efficiency initiatives and distributed resources can address a significant amount of this demand, the United States will likely still need new utility-scale generation resources. The energy sector uses capacity expansion planning models to determine the aggregate need for new generation, but these models are typically at the state or regional scale and are not equipped to address the wide range of location- and technology-specific issues that are increasingly a factor in power plant siting. To help address these challenges, we have developed the Geospatial Raster Input Data for Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (GRIDCERF) data package, a high-resolution product to evaluate siting suitability for renewable and non-renewable power plants in the conterminous United States. GRIDCERF offers 264 suitability layers for use with 56 power plant technologies in a harmonized format that can be easily ingested by geospatially-enabled modeling software allowing for customization to robustly address science objectives when evaluating varying future conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reliability and Resiliency in South Asia's Power Sector - Pathways for Research, Modeling, and Implementation

Reliability and resilience are the core principles of power system planning and operations around the world. Power systems in South Asia are transforming with increasing penetration of clean energy generation resources, emerging technologies, increasing electricity demand and electrification. At the same time, these power systems are facing challenges posed by extreme weather events and climate change. All these factors would add furthermore importance to the reliability and resilience of future power systems in South Asia. This has motivated us to better understand the country specific challenges and chalk out the pathways for research, modelling and implementation in South Asia. Our research, experience in the region and feedback from key stakeholders indicate following as the key areas where more work is needed to improve reliability and resilience of power systems in the region: Renewable energy Data for power system studies, New Tools and Studies, Resilience Planning, Resource Adequacy, Advanced RE Forecasting, Cybersecurity, Load Forecasting, and Coordinated Planning and Operations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pathways Toward Electric Mobility: Communities LEAP in Hennepin County, Minnesota

This report presents the findings from a comprehensive community engagement initiative focused on advancing equitable transportation electrification in Hennepin County. This initiative responds to the critical need for inclusive and sustainable mobility solutions in the face of rising environmental and financial challenges in the transportation sector. This project has two goals. First, to learn what each community's priorities are and share them with the city, county, and state government to inform transportation plans and projects. Second, to bridge divides between government and community, building pathways for community-guided decision making on future transportation plans.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Material For Harsh Environments : 2020 Virtual Workshop Summary Report

This report identifies seven high-priority, crosscutting research directions for energy-producing and energy-intensive industries in which harsh service environments are experienced. Electrical power-generating technologies that could benefit include nuclear, renewable (e.g., wind, solar thermal, geothermal, and hydro), and combustion processes (e.g., hydrogen, natural gas, biomass, and coal). Investment in these research areas could drive deployment of new materials and manufacturing innovations that would, in turn, enable widespread implementation of advanced materials into the energy production and manufacturing sectors, leading to step-changes in materials systems’ performance and manufacturing efficiency. Those technological step-change advancements would stimulate and reinvigorate domestic manufacturing, improve U.S. manufacturing competitiveness, markedly improve energy efficiency in targeted energy-intensive manufacturing processes, and enable practice of technologies that reduce the carbon footprint across a broad swath of manufacturing and electricity production supply chains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonizing Medium- & Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis

We simulate adoption and energy consumption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the medium and heavy duty (MD/HD) sector. With continued improvement in ZEV technologies, total-cost-of-driving parity with conventional vehicles is achievable by 2035 for all MD/HD vehicle classes. Two technological solutions – battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are viable in multiple market segments, offering alternative pathways for decarbonization. In this scenario, ZEV sales reach 99+% by 2045 and 42% by 2030. 80% of the MD/HD stock transitions to ZEVs by 2050, reducing CO2 emissions by 69% from 2019. Disparities in adoption rate and vehicle usage between vehicle classes and between short and long-haul applications highlight opportunities for targeted policies (to reduce emissions it is critical to understand what vehicles transition to ZEV, not just how many vehicles). Results are highly sensitive to assumed fuel prices, technology improvement trajectories, adoption decision-making, and assumptions about future freight demand and vehicle use.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗