Results for “data inference” — Page 35

NASA NTRS1997

Fragmentary Solar System History

The objective of this research is an improved understanding of the early solar system environment and of the processes involved in the nebula and in the evolution of solid bodies. We present results of our studies on the isotopic signatures in selected primitive solar system objects and on the evaluation of the cosmic ray records and of inferred collisional events. Furthermore, we report data of trapped martian atmospheric gases in meteorites and the inferred early evolution of Mars' atmosphere.

Marti, Kurt↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Deriving Climate Change Signal from Hyperspectral Sounders Using Spectral Fingerprinting Method

Hyperspectral observations from satellite-based sensors provide high information content for the Earth’s atmospheric temperature, water vapor and trace gas vertical profiles. We have developed a radiometrically consistent spectral fingerprinting method to derive climate change signals from Aqua AIRS/AMSU and S-NPP CrIS/ATMS data. The climate variables include temperature and water vapor profiles, cloud, trace gases, and surface skin temperature. The radiative kernels obtained via a single field of view physical retrieval algorithm under all-sky conditions. A key component to this work is a Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM). It is 4 orders of magnitude faster than a line-by-line radiative transfer model while keeping a similar accuracy (0.03 K RMS errors with close to zero bias). The PCRTM includes multiple scattering of clouds and non-thermodynamics equilibrium of CO2 in the RT calculations. Instead of quantifying the radiometric differences between AIRS/AMSU and CrIS/ATMS measurements directly using Simultaneous Nadir Overpass (SNO) or Double Difference Technique (DDT), we use the radiometric consistent fingerprinting scheme to derive two sets of space-time averaged anomalies from the Level 1 data of AIRS/AMSU and CrIS/ATMS. The derived anomalies in geophysical space will form a long-term, stable, and continuous climate data record. We can further infer the causes of any offset or drift by studying the differences between two overlapping data sets. For example, the offset in surface skin temperature anomaly time series will most likely caused by the Blackbody temperature calibration errors of the sounder instruments.

climate↗

DOE OSTI2023

Neural Network Export Package (nexport) v0.1.0

nexport is a lightweight python 3 package which enables neural network developers to export the weights and biases of trained networks to useful file types. It provides I/O support for applications which require specific data types for instantiating neural networks in various inference environments. It was initially developed to support exporting to the data structure used by 'inference-engine', a Fortran inference package.

Welsman, Jordan↗

NASA NTRS2011

Influence of Dust and Black Carbon on the Snow Albedo in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 Land Surface Model

Present-day land surface models rarely account for the influence of both black carbon and dust in the snow on the snow albedo. Snow impurities increase the absorption of incoming shortwave radiation (particularly in the visible bands), whereby they have major consequences for the evolution of snowmelt and life cycles of snowpack. A new parameterization of these snow impurities was included in the catchment-based land surface model used in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Earth Observing System version 5. Validation tests against in situ observed data were performed for the winter of 2003.2004 in Sapporo, Japan, for both the new snow albedo parameterization (which explicitly accounts for snow impurities) and the preexisting baseline albedo parameterization (which does not). Validation tests reveal that daily variations of snow depth and snow surface albedo are more realistically simulated with the new parameterization. Reasonable perturbations in the assigned snow impurity concentrations, as inferred from the observational data, produce significant changes in snowpack depth and radiative flux interactions. These findings illustrate the importance of parameterizing the influence of snow impurities on the snow surface albedo for proper simulation of the life cycle of snow cover.

Yasunari, Teppei J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Observing the onset of pressure-driven K-shell delocalization

The gravitational pressure in many astrophysical objects exceeds one gigabar (one billion atmospheres), creating extreme conditions where the distance between nuclei approaches the size of the K shell. This close proximity modifies these tightly bound states and, above a certain pressure, drives them into a delocalized state. Both processes substantially affect the equation of state and radiation transport and, therefore, the structure and evolution of these objects. Still, our understanding of this transition is far from satisfactory and experimental data are sparse. Here, in this work, we report on experiments that create and diagnose matter at pressures exceeding three gigabars at the National Ignition Facility where 184 laser beams imploded a beryllium shell. Bright X-ray flashes enable precision radiography and X-ray Thomson scattering that reveal both the macroscopic conditions and the microscopic states. The data show clear signs of quantum-degenerate electrons in states reaching 30 times compression, and a temperature of around two million kelvins. At the most extreme conditions, we observe strongly reduced elastic scattering, which mainly originates from K-shell electrons. We attribute this reduction to the onset of delocalization of the remaining K-shell electron. With this interpretation, the ion charge inferred from the scattering data agrees well with ab initio simulations, but it is significantly higher than widely used analytical models predict.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1985

Lidar observations of vertically organized convection in the planetary boundary layer over the ocean

Observations of a convective planetary boundary layer (PBL) were made with an airborne, downward-looking lidar system over the Atlantic Ocean during a cold air outbreak. The lidar data revealed well-organized, regularly spaced cellular convection with dominant spacial scales between two and four times the height of the boundary layer. It is demonstrated that the lidar can accurately measure the structure of the PBL with high vertical and horizontal resolution. Parameters important for PBL modeling such as entrainment zone thickness, entrainment rate, PBL height and relative heat flux can be inferred from the lidar data. It is suggested that wind shear at the PBL top may influence both entrainment and convective cell size.

Melfi, S. H.↗

NASA NTRS1961

A Comparison of Theory and Observation of the Echo I Satellite

Observations of the Echo I balloon satellite have been compared with a theory including the following perturbing effects: (1) solar radiation pressure; (2) lunar and solar gravitation; (3) second, third, and fourth harmonics of the earth's gravitational potential; and (4) atmospheric drag. With a set of orbital elements at the 26th day of the lifetime of the satellite, it was possible to match the observational data to 180 days with root mean square residuals as follows: Delta-a = 17.9 km, Delta-e = 0.0021, Delta-i = 0.0177 deg., Delta-omega = 1.1231 deg., Delta-Omega = 0.4821 deg., Delta-perigee height = 7.50 km. No differential correction has been applied as yet. Values of atmospheric density between 1500 and 930 km, assuming neutral drag effects only, have been inferred from the orbital data. The connection between solar activity and drag is also examined. As the Echo I perigee height continues to oscillate between 900 and 1500 km, more valuable orbital data will be obtained and atmospheric properties will be deduced. Further refinements in the mathematical model, especially in a time-dependent model atmosphere, should bring a substantial reduction in the residuals of the observations.

Bryant, R. W.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Light-Level Geolocation of the LANL Population of Western Bluebirds

Options for tracking and reconstructing animal movement are increasingly accessible due to rapidly decreasing costs, smaller sizes, and a proliferation of analytical inference techniques (Rutz and Hays, 2009; Wikelski et al., 2007). A wide variety of options exists for determining movement patterns of animals—from high-resolution pinpoint ARGOS satellite tags to time-consuming and logistically challenging radio telemetry. One option, light-level geolocation, offers small, affordable devices with long battery lives known as global location sensors (GLS), making them ideal for gathering preliminary migratory data. Geolocation works by inferring patterns of animal movement from light-level transitions between day and night (Hill and Braun, 2001). The recent advances in tracking technologies allow biologists to zoom in on migratory behavior, delineating heretofore-unidentified intraspecific migratory behavior (Delmore et al., 2012). The ubiquity of migratory divides (populations within a species that exhibit different migratory patterns) remains largely unknown, but their existence can lead to favorable demographic metrics (e.g., genetic diversity) in conservation contexts (Møller et al., 2011) and necessitate the development of population-specific conservation plans (Delmore et al., 2012). Delimiting the populations within a species that migrate and the extent of their migrations relative to individuals that remain resident across a species’ range has important evolutionary, ecological, and conservation implications. Within this context, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) biologists have leveraged the local Avian Nestbox Network (ANN; Fair and Myers, 2002) to evaluate the migratory behaviors of a common local bird species, the Western Bluebird (Sialia mexicana).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hypergraph Models of Biological Networks to Identify Genes Critical to Pathogenic Viral Response

Motivation: Representing biological networks as graphs is a powerful approach to reveal underlying patterns, signatures, and critical components from high-throughput biomolecular data. However, graphs do not natively capture the multi-way relationships present among genes and proteins in biological systems such as protein complexes, metabolic reactions, and signal transduction pathways. Hypergraphs are generalizations of graphs that naturally model multi-way interactions in data, and we therefore seek to understand how they can more faithfully identify, and potentially predict, complex relationships in genomic expression data sets. Results: We compiled a novel data set of transcriptional host response to pathogenic viral infections and formulated relationships between genes as a hypergraph where hyperedges are differentially expressed genes and vertices represent conditions. We find that hypergraph betweenness centrality is a superior method for identification of genes important to viral response when compared with graph centrality. Our results demonstrate the utility of using hypergraphs to represent complex biological systems, and highlight potentially interesting biological results about host response to highly pathogenic viruses.

systems biology, hypergraph, viral infection, biol↗

NASA NTRS1989

Knowledge-based control of an adaptive interface

The analysis, development strategy, and preliminary design for an intelligent, adaptive interface is reported. The design philosophy couples knowledge-based system technology with standard human factors approaches to interface development for computer workstations. An expert system has been designed to drive the interface for application software. The intelligent interface will be linked to application packages, one at a time, that are planned for multiple-application workstations aboard Space Station Freedom. Current requirements call for most Space Station activities to be conducted at the workstation consoles. One set of activities will consist of standard data management services (DMS). DMS software includes text processing, spreadsheets, data base management, etc. Text processing was selected for the first intelligent interface prototype because text-processing software can be developed initially as fully functional but limited with a small set of commands. The program's complexity then can be increased incrementally. The intelligent interface includes the operator's behavior and three types of instructions to the underlying application software are included in the rule base. A conventional expert-system inference engine searches the data base for antecedents to rules and sends the consequents of fired rules as commands to the underlying software. Plans for putting the expert system on top of a second application, a database management system, will be carried out following behavioral research on the first application. The intelligent interface design is suitable for use with ground-based workstations now common in government, industrial, and educational organizations.

Lachman, Roy↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unlocking hidden information in sparse small-angle neutron scattering measurements

Hypothesis Small-Angle Neutron Scattering (SANS) is a powerful technique for studying soft matter systems such as colloids, polymers, and lyotropic phases, providing nanoscale structural insights. However, its effectiveness is limited by low neutron flux, leading to long acquisition times and noisy data. Here, we hypothesize that Bayesian statistical inference using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) can reconstruct high-fidelity scattering data from sparse measurements by leveraging intensity smoothness and continuity. Experiments and Simulations The method was benchmarked computationally and validated through SANS experiments on various soft matter systems, including wormlike micelles, colloidal suspensions, polymeric structures, and lyotropic phases. GPR-based inference was applied to both experimental and synthetic data to evaluate its effectiveness in noise reduction and intensity reconstruction. Findings GPR significantly enhances SANS data quality and therefore reducing measurement times by up to two orders of magnitude. This cost-effective approach maximizes experimental efficiency, enabling high-throughput studies and real-time monitoring of dynamic systems. It is particularly beneficial for weakly scattering and time-sensitive studies. Beyond SANS, this framework applies to other low-SNR techniques, including laboratory-based small-angle X-ray scattering and various dynamical scattering methods. Furthermore, it offers transformative potential for compact neutron sources, enhancing their viability for structural analysis in resource-limited settings.

Small angle neutron scattering↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probing the Magnetosheath Boundaries Using Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) Orbital Encounters

Inside the magnetosheath, the IBEX-Hi energetic neutral atom (ENA) imager measures a distinct background count rate that is more than 10 times the typical heliospheric ENA emissions observed when IBEX is outside the magnetosheath. The source of this enhancement is magnetosheath ions of solar wind (SW) origin that deflect around the Earth's magnetopause (MP), scatter and neutralize from the anti-sunward part of the IBEX-Hi sunshade, and continue into the instrument as neutral atoms, behaving indistinguishably from ENAs emitted from distant plasma sources. While this background pollutes observations of outer heliospheric ENAs, it provides a clear signature of IBEX crossings over the magnetospheric boundaries. In this study, we investigate IBEX encounters with the magnetosheath boundaries using ~8 yr of orbital data, and we determine the MP and bow shock (BS) locations derived from this background signal. We find 280 BS crossings from X GSE ~ 11 R e to X GSE ~ –36 R e and 241 MP crossings from X GSE ~ 6 R e to X GSE ~ –48 R e . We compare IBEX BS and MP crossing locations to those from IMP-8, Geotail, Cluster, Magion-4, ISEE, and Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission, and we find that IBEX crossing locations overlap with the BS and MP locations inferred from these other data sets. In this paper, we demonstrate how IBEX can be used to identify magnetosheath crossings, and extend boundary observations well past the terminator, thus further constraining future models of magnetosheath boundaries. Furthermore, we use the IBEX data set to show observational evidence of near-Earth magnetotail squeezing during periods of strong interplanetary magnetic field B y .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizers for stabilizing likelihood-free inference

A growing number of applications in particle physics and beyond use neural networks as unbinned likelihood ratio estimators applied to real or simulated data. Precision requirements on the inference tasks demand a high-level of stability from these networks, which are affected by the stochastic nature of training. We show how physics concepts can be used to stabilize network training through a physics-inspired optimizer. In particular, the energy conserving descent (ECD) optimization framework uses classical Hamiltonian dynamics on the space of network parameters to reduce the dependence on the initial conditions while also stabilizing the result near the minimum of the loss function. We develop a version of this optimizer known as , which has few free hyperparameters with limited ranges guided by physical reasoning. We apply to representative likelihood-ratio estimation tasks in particle physics and find on average that it out-performs the widely used Adam optimizer. We expect that ECD will be a useful tool for wide array of data-limited problems, where it is computationally expensive to exhaustively optimize hyperparameters and mitigate fluctuations with ensembling.

Monte Carlo methods↗

NASA NTRS1972

An analysis of the Venus measurements

Plots of the Mariner 5 and Venera 4, 5, and 6 pressure vs temperature show that the Venera profiles are essentially congruent with the Mariner 5 day and night profiles, but are displaced 28 percent higher in pressure. Data suggest a variability in the atmospheric water vapor content in the region from 30 to 50 km. The Venera 7 measurements are interpreted as evidence for updrafts, down-drafts, horizontal wind layers, and nonaqueous precipitation. The previously observed band of retrograde winds which circle the equator with an average speed of 110 m/s is found to extend downward to the one atmosphere level at the equatorial morning terminator. The possibility of a low altitude equator-to-pole circulation with warm gas rising at the poles is inferred. Venera 7 temperature data used with radar topography and microwaves interferometer measurements suggest that the variation of surface temperature with altitude in a band about the equator is less than 5 K/km. The available data are used to calculate a model of the structure of the Venus atmosphere for the first 75 km above the equatorial region.

Ainsworth, J. E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ARCTRON: A Rapid Experimental Proving Ground for TPS Experiments and Arcjet Technology Development

Innovation in high-enthalpy facilities is fundamentally limited by the cost and risk of experimentation. New concepts for plasma control, diagnostics, facility components, and plasma-material interaction often require repeated iterations that are impractical to perform in production arcjets. As a result, promising ideas may remain unexplored or reach operational facilities only after significant development effort. ARCTRON is being developed as a rapid experimental proving ground where new ideas in plasma science, arcjet engineering, diagnostics, and material response can be conceived, tested, and quantitatively evaluated before transition to large-scale facilities. The platform combines radio-frequency (RF) and DC arc plasma generation, externally applied magnetic fields, configurable gas composition, reduced-pressure operation, laser heating, electrical biasing, and modular diagnostic access. These capabilities permit the plasma source, applied forcing, test article, and measurement configuration to be modified independently, allowing individual physical mechanisms to be isolated more readily than in a traditional test environment. One class of investigations addresses fundamental plasma-surface interaction physics. Conventional material tests often expose a specimen simultaneously to convective heating, reactive species, pressure, shear, radiation, and surface-current effects. The resulting material response may be measured accurately, while the contribution of each mechanism remains difficult to identify. ARCTRON is designed to vary these effects selectively. Plasma chemistry can be changed independently through configurable gas mixtures; magnetic fields and electrical biasing can modify charged-particle transport; laser heating can provide a non-plasma thermal input; and pressure, flow, and discharge mode can be varied over a broad operating space. This enables controlled tests of hypotheses involving surface catalycity, reactive-species transport, plasma-assisted oxidation, electromagnetic effects, shear, and the relative contributions of thermal and chemical loading. A second class of investigations enabled by this approach concerns the engineering of high-enthalpy facilities themselves. Arc-heated facilities are limited by electrode erosion, unstable arc attachment, localized heating, and damage to nozzles and other plasma-facing components. ARCTRON provides a lower-cost environment for testing concepts intended to mitigate these limitations. Candidate investigations include the use of applied magnetic fields to alter current paths and reduce plasma interaction with nozzle walls, ExB forcing to introduce controlled plasma rotation, magnetic or geometric approaches for distributing arc attachment, and alternative electrode or discharge configurations intended to reduce erosion and improve stability. Because the platform is reconfigurable, these concepts can be evaluated through repeated design--build--test cycles before they are considered for implementation in operational facilities. The platform also supports the development and validation of diagnostics that may be difficult to introduce initially into a large arcjet. Current and planned measurements include spatially resolved optical emission spectroscopy, electrostatic probes, fast imaging, pyrometry, calorimetry, laser-induced fluorescence, and absorption spectroscopy. These diagnostics are intended not merely to document a nominal operating condition, but to constrain the local plasma state and its relationship to component or material response. The modular facility geometry allows diagnostic concepts to be tested, calibrated, and compared under repeatable conditions before deployment in more demanding environments. ARCTRON is also supported by an integrated software suite. Automated control and data acquisition allow discharge parameters, gas composition, magnetic fields, diagnostic timing, and test configuration to be recorded as part of each experiment (STARDAC - Software for Testing, Analysis, Research Data, and Control). The Backend for Experiment Analysis, Storage, and Traceability (BEAST) is a database that provides the infrastructure needed to associate heterogeneous measurements with facility configuration, specimen identity, calibration state, geometry, and analysis provenance. This backend is particularly important for exploratory campaigns, in which many related configurations may be tested, and the value of an individual experiment depends on its connection to earlier and subsequent iterations. Complementary analysis capabilities, including computer-vision-based transient response measurements (arcjetCV), three-dimensional surface reconstruction (STARSCAN), and model-based Bayesian inference (SHIELD), and tomography data analysis (TOMATO, PuMA) can be incorporated when required by a specific hypothesis without becoming the focus of every campaign. The central objective of ARCTRON is therefore not to maximize heat flux or reproduce a complete flight environment. Its purpose is to reduce the cost and time required to ask consequential questions about plasma behavior, plasma-facing materials, diagnostics, and arcjet technology. By providing a controlled environment for rapid reconfiguration, mechanism isolation, quantitative measurement, and iterative engineering, ARCTRON can help mature concepts that would otherwise remain too speculative or too risky for evaluation in production facilities. The resulting knowledge can then guide the design of material models, focus test objectives in larger arcjets, reduce facility-development risk, and improve the physical basis of high-enthalpy ground testing. This work will present the ARCTRON architecture, operating modes, diagnostic suite, and digital experimental workflow. Initial experimental results from the first integrated operation of the facility will be presented, including flow characterization, power limitations, and deployment of the initial diagnostic suite. Ongoing development efforts aimed at catalycity characterization, magnetic plasma control, and advanced optical diagnostics will also be discussed, illustrating how the platform supports rapid iteration from concept to experiment.

experimental diagnostics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ARCTRON: A Rapid Experimental Proving Ground for TPS Experiments and Arcjet Technology Development

Innovation in high-enthalpy facilities is fundamentally limited by the cost and risk of experimentation. New concepts for plasma control, diagnostics, facility components, and plasma-material interaction often require repeated iterations that are impractical to perform in production arcjets. As a result, promising ideas may remain unexplored or reach operational facilities only after significant development effort. ARCTRON is being developed as a rapid experimental proving ground where new ideas in plasma science, arcjet engineering, diagnostics, and material response can be conceived, tested, and quantitatively evaluated before transition to large-scale facilities. The platform combines radio-frequency (RF) and DC arc plasma generation, externally applied magnetic fields, configurable gas composition, reduced-pressure operation, laser heating, electrical biasing, and modular diagnostic access. These capabilities permit the plasma source, applied forcing, test article, and measurement configuration to be modified independently, allowing individual physical mechanisms to be isolated more readily than in a traditional test environment. One class of investigations addresses fundamental plasma-surface interaction physics. Conventional material tests often expose a specimen simultaneously to convective heating, reactive species, pressure, shear, radiation, and surface-current effects. The resulting material response may be measured accurately, while the contribution of each mechanism remains difficult to identify. ARCTRON is designed to vary these effects selectively. Plasma chemistry can be changed independently through configurable gas mixtures; magnetic fields and electrical biasing can modify charged-particle transport; laser heating can provide a non-plasma thermal input; and pressure, flow, and discharge mode can be varied over a broad operating space. This enables controlled tests of hypotheses involving surface catalycity, reactive-species transport, plasma-assisted oxidation, electromagnetic effects, shear, and the relative contributions of thermal and chemical loading. A second class of investigations enabled by this approach concerns the engineering of high-enthalpy facilities themselves. Arc-heated facilities are limited by electrode erosion, unstable arc attachment, localized heating, and damage to nozzles and other plasma-facing components. ARCTRON provides a lower-cost environment for testing concepts intended to mitigate these limitations. Candidate investigations include the use of applied magnetic fields to alter current paths and reduce plasma interaction with nozzle walls, ExB forcing to introduce controlled plasma rotation, magnetic or geometric approaches for distributing arc attachment, and alternative electrode or discharge configurations intended to reduce erosion and improve stability. Because the platform is reconfigurable, these concepts can be evaluated through repeated design--build--test cycles before they are considered for implementation in operational facilities. The platform also supports the development and validation of diagnostics that may be difficult to introduce initially into a large arcjet. Current and planned measurements include spatially resolved optical emission spectroscopy, electrostatic probes, fast imaging, pyrometry, calorimetry, laser-induced fluorescence, and absorption spectroscopy. These diagnostics are intended not merely to document a nominal operating condition, but to constrain the local plasma state and its relationship to component or material response. The modular facility geometry allows diagnostic concepts to be tested, calibrated, and compared under repeatable conditions before deployment in more demanding environments. ARCTRON is also supported by an integrated software suite. Automated control and data acquisition allow discharge parameters, gas composition, magnetic fields, diagnostic timing, and test configuration to be recorded as part of each experiment (STARDAC - Software for Testing, Analysis, Research Data, and Control). The Backend for Experiment Analysis, Storage, and Traceability (BEAST) is a database that provides the infrastructure needed to associate heterogeneous measurements with facility configuration, specimen identity, calibration state, geometry, and analysis provenance. This backend is particularly important for exploratory campaigns, in which many related configurations may be tested, and the value of an individual experiment depends on its connection to earlier and subsequent iterations. Complementary analysis capabilities, including computer-vision-based transient response measurements (arcjetCV), three-dimensional surface reconstruction (STARSCAN), and model-based Bayesian inference (SHIELD), and tomography data analysis (TOMATO, PuMA) can be incorporated when required by a specific hypothesis without becoming the focus of every campaign. The central objective of ARCTRON is therefore not to maximize heat flux or reproduce a complete flight environment. Its purpose is to reduce the cost and time required to ask consequential questions about plasma behavior, plasma-facing materials, diagnostics, and arcjet technology. By providing a controlled environment for rapid reconfiguration, mechanism isolation, quantitative measurement, and iterative engineering, ARCTRON can help mature concepts that would otherwise remain too speculative or too risky for evaluation in production facilities. The resulting knowledge can then guide the design of material models, focus test objectives in larger arcjets, reduce facility-development risk, and improve the physical basis of high-enthalpy ground testing. This work will present the ARCTRON architecture, operating modes, diagnostic suite, and digital experimental workflow. Initial experimental results from the first integrated operation of the facility will be presented, including flow characterization, power limitations, and deployment of the initial diagnostic suite. Ongoing development efforts aimed at catalycity characterization, magnetic plasma control, and advanced optical diagnostics will also be discussed, illustrating how the platform supports rapid iteration from concept to experiment.

experimental diagnostics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning models inaccurately predict current and future high-latitude C balances

The high-latitude carbon (C) cycle is a key feedback to the global climate system, yet because of system complexity and data limitations, there is currently disagreement over whether the region is a source or sink of C. Recent advances in big data analytics and computing power have popularized the use of machine learning (ML) algorithms to upscale site measurements of ecosystem processes, and in some cases forecast the response of these processes to climate change. Due to data limitations, however, ML model predictions of these processes are almost never validated with independent datasets. To better understand and characterize the limitations of these methods, we develop an approach to independently evaluate ML upscaling and forecasting. We mimic data-driven upscaling and forecasting efforts by applying ML algorithms to different subsets of regional process-model simulation gridcells, and then test ML performance using the remaining gridcells. In this study, we simulate C fluxes and environmental data across Alaska using ecosys, a process-rich terrestrial ecosystem model, and then apply boosted regression tree ML algorithms to training data configurations that mirror and expand upon existing AmeriFLUX eddy-covariance data availability. We first show that a ML model trained using ecosys outputs from currently-available Alaska AmeriFLUX sites incorrectly predicts that Alaska is presently a modeled net C source. Increased spatial coverage of the training dataset improves ML predictions, halving the bias when 240 modeled sites are used instead of 15. However, even this more accurate ML model incorrectly predicts Alaska C fluxes under 21st century climate change because of changes in atmospheric CO 2 , litter inputs, and vegetation composition that have impacts on C fluxes which cannot be inferred from the training data. Our results provide key insights to future C flux upscaling efforts and expose the potential for inaccurate ML upscaling and forecasting of high-latitude C cycle dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

ERS-1 and Seasat scatterometer measurements of ocean winds: Model functions and the directional distribution of short waves

Calculation of accurate vector winds from scatterometers requires knowledge of the relationship between backscatter cross-section and the geophysical variable of interest. As the detailed dynamics of wind generation of centimetric waves and radar-sea surface scattering at moderate incidence angles are not well known, empirical scatterometer model functions relating backscatter to winds must be developed. Less well appreciated is the fact that, given an accurate model function and some knowledge of the dominant scattering mechanisms, significant information on the amplitudes and directional distributions of centimetric roughness elements on the sea surface can be inferred. accurate scatterometer model functions can thus be used to investigate wind generation of short waves under realistic conditions. The present investigation involves developing an empirical model function for the C-band (5.3 GHz) ERS-1 scatterometer and comparing Ku-band model functions with the C-band model to infer information on the two-dimensional spectrum of centimetric roughness elements in the ocean. The C-band model function development is based on collocations of global backscatter measurements with operational surface analyses produced by meteorological agencies. Strengths and limitations of the method are discussed, and the resulting model function is validated in part through comparison with the actual distributions of backscatter cross-section triplets. Details of the directional modulation as well as the wind speed sensitivity at C-band are investigated. Analysis of persistent outliers in the data is used to infer the magnitudes of non-wind effects (such as atmospheric stratification, swell, etc.). The ERS-1 C-band instrument and the Seasat Ku-band (14.6 GHz) scatterometer both imaged waves of approximately 3.4 cm wavelength assuming that Bragg scattering is the dominant mechanism. Comparisons of the C-band and Ku-band model functions are used both to test the validity of the postulated Bragg mechanism and to investigate the directional distribution of the imaged waves under a variety of conditions where Bragg scatter is dominant.

Freilich, Michael H.↗