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DOE OSTI2024

Woody Feedstock 2022 State of Technology Report

The U.S. Department of Energy promotes production of advanced liquid transportation fuels from lignocellulosic biomass by funding fundamental and applied research that advances the state of technology (SOT). As part of its involvement in this mission, Idaho National Laboratory completes an annual SOT report for n th -plant and 1 st -plant woody biomass feedstock logistics. The purpose of the SOT is to provide the status of feedstock supply system technology development for woody biomass to biofuels relative to technical targets and cost goals from specific design cases, based on data and experimental results. Conventional feedstock supply systems need to be modified to meet the demands of conversion pathways, specifically to have the ability to adjust the quality of the raw biomass materials. Advanced systems incorporate innovative methods of material handling, preprocessing and supply chain configuration. In advanced designs, variability of the raw biomass can be reduced to produce feedstocks of a uniform format, moving toward biomass commoditization. Against this backdrop, the 2022 Woody SOT for low-ash woody feedstocks utilizes feedstock fractionation by incorporating technologies that can separate the biomass into its anatomical fractions (wood, bark, needle, and extrinsic ash) to reduce impurities and attempt to maximize the retention of usable fractions that satisfy downstream quality considerations. By using a series of air classification steps, this strategy can reduce the extrinsic ash in forest residues, separate out a majority of the incoming needles (which can be supplied to alternate markets), and maximize the retention of whitewood in the usable fraction. The fractionated forest residues are then mixed with clean-pine chips in a 50-50 blend to prepare the feedstock for the desired conversion pathway. The n th -plant analysis estimated the delivered cost for the feedstock at $\$$69.23/dry ton (2016$\$$) which represents a $\$$6.64/dry ton decrease compared to the cost estimate of the 2021 Woody SOT supply system for low-ash woody feedstocks. The quality requirements in the 2022 Woody SOT were identical to those of the 2021 Woody SOT at = 1.00 wt % ash and = 50.51 wt% carbon. The cost savings derive primarily from reductions in dry matter losses during air classification. The GHG emissions for the n th -plant analysis were estimated at 178.39 kg CO2e/dry ton compared to 178.71 kg CO 2 e/dry ton in the 2021 Woody SOT, a decrease of 0.32 kg CO2e/dry ton. The small change stems from an increase in emissions attributed to preprocessing and slightly larger savings in emissions from transportation. In the 1 st -plant analysis of the 2022 Woody SOT system, the average throughput was estimated to be approximately 2,128 dry tons/day or 96.51% of the name plate capacity. During the simulation the daily throughput ranged from 1,090 dry tons/day to 2,200 dry tons/day, or 49.43% to 99.75% of the daily nameplate capacity. After the year of operation 722,403 tons of processed feedstock were produced in total without regard to quality considerations (99.64% of the annual nameplate capacity). The variability in throughput was primarily caused by equipment failures in the system. Regular failures, downtime caused by routine maintenance per manufacturer guidelines, contributed to a majority 62.50% of failures and 62.60% of downtime. Failures due to wear were the other cause of disruption within the system, impacting the rotary shear and orbital screen and accounting for 37.50% of the failures and 37.40% of the total downtime. Ultimately the system was on stream for 87.84% during the simulation period, which is only 2.16 percentage points below the nth-plant assumption for on-stream time. The production cost of the system averaged $\$$71.66/dry ton. The costs ranged from a minimum of $\$$71.23/dry ton to a maximum of $\$$2,115.30/dry ton. When dry matter losses (disposed low-quality fractions as well as other losses such as in grinders) were considered the costs increased to an average of $\$$75.11/dry ton with a minimum of $\$$74.69/dry ton and a maximum of $\$$2,136.86/dry ton...

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Impact of Cement Plant Air Ingress on Membrane-Based CO2 Capture Retrofit Cost

This PowerPoint presentation summarizes the cost and performance results of the techno-economic analysis of membrane-based carbon capture retrofits at cement plants, published in June 2024, titled “The Impact of Cement Plant Air Ingress on Membrane-Based CO2 Capture Retrofit Cost.” The analysis report used as a basis for slide contents was developed by NETL for publication in the scientific journal Carbon Capture Science and Technology.

Hughes, Sydney↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Impact of Cement Plant Air Ingress on Membrane-Based CO2 Capture Retrofit Cost

Hughes, Sydney↗

DOE OSTI2022

DEVELOPMENT OF OIL FREE CENTRIFUGAL BLOWER AS ENABLING TECHNOLOGY FOR SOLID OXIDE FUEL CELL ANODE GAS RECYCLING

Broad commercialization of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs), requires anode offgas recycle blowers (AORB) that are specifically designed for handling the challenging operating conditions presented by the SOFC process gases. Otherwise, they can be susceptible to frequent maintenance, low reliability, and short life. This work presents details of the development and testing of an oil-free, low cost centrifugal AORB based on compliant foil bearing (CFB) technology for support of a 100 kW solid oxide fuel cell power plant. The advantages of this novel technology are discussed, particularly its long life and maintenance-free operation, which are derived from the use of CFBs. Also included are preliminary techno-economic analysis considerations for cost-effective deployment of the technology.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Potential Advantages to Employing an Onsite Laboratory at FUSRAP Sites Contaminated with Radionuclides and Metals - 20353

Various factors that support an evaluation of the relative costs, advantages and disadvantages of utilizing an onsite laboratory or an offsite laboratory for remediation of Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) sites contaminated with radionuclides and metals are presented. In terms of how much more quickly an onsite laboratory provides results versus an offsite laboratory, the results of this study provide tools for calculating the amount of cost savings per day for excavation of contaminated soils for various scenarios including: - State, municipal or local property remediation where the remediation schedule becomes time-critical due to the extra cost and inconvenience to the town or municipality caused by the need for increased security and safety personnel, possible road closures and detours, and the inconvenience to the public due to modified or decreased services of State or municipal facilities; - Residential property where the remediation schedule becomes time-critical due to the inconvenience to the homeowner as well as the importance of maintaining good community relations; - Commercial property where the remediation schedule becomes time-critical due to the hardship and potential loss of revenue endured by the property owner; - Open area where treatment of excavation water is required, and - Open area where treatment of excavation water is not required. For every scenario, the number of matrices, radionuclide and metal contaminants of concern and the project duration are important factors. The costs for the onsite laboratory included the capital costs associated with setting up the lab such as trailer(s) or building(s), power and water hookup, analytical testing equipment, balances, computers, desks and bookcases; support equipment such as hot plates, filtration assemblies, safety equipment, ovens, etc.; and supplies such as glassware, pipettes, filters, etc. and ongoing costs such as labor, chemicals and reagents, standards, cost of the laboratory obtaining certification and maintenance. Offsite laboratory sample testing costs are generally very competitive and typically substantially lower than onsite laboratory costs if only the sample testing costs are considered. The great disadvantage of using an offsite laboratory is that they often cannot guarantee rapid turnaround times for results which creates project delays associated with the remediation process including delays determining the completeness of the characterization and remediation processes, delays in backfilling a property and additional costs for treating wastewater (excavation water, stormwater or both). These costs will vary greatly depending upon the area of the country in which the project is located due to the wide range of labor costs for the onsite laboratory and field workers, as well as the contaminants of interest, matrices and most importantly the size of the impacted area and the number of properties located in that area. This paper provides guidelines for calculating the cost savings that may be realized if an onsite laboratory can generate results more quickly than an offsite laboratory by estimating the costs associated with the remediation process for the various scenarios noted above such as work crew labor costs, excavator and dump truck equipment rentals, wastewater treatment costs (if applicable) and the additional costs incurred by homeowners, commercial property owners and towns/municipalities that are reimbursed by the potentially responsible parties. Key assumptions involve the typical quickest turnaround time provided by the onsite and offsite laboratories. Costs for the operation of a wastewater treatment system and the remediation of a site area or property were provided by personnel who have been involved in the operation of a large FUSRAP site in New Jersey for many years. This study provides valuable information for determining the most cost-effective approach for analysis of project samples and therefore may be used on upcoming FUSRAP projects. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

A data analysis method to rapidly characterize gallium concentration in plutonium matrices using LIBS

The processing of actinide samples is a complex and costly endeavor that requires compositional analysis at various stages. Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) has been used to analyze actinide-containing samples in many nuclear applications including waste management, fuel processing and forensics. The LIBS spectrum obtained from actinide materials are generally extremely complex, exhibiting many thousands of strong emission lines. This makes it difficult to identify other elements within the sample of interest, given the rich and dominant actinide spectrum. Here, in this article, we describe a recent effort to identify and quantify impurities and alloying constituents in plutonium matrices using a hand-held LIBS instrument that is used to rapidly and efficiently measure an emission spectrum from a material sample. We tabulate the emission line positions and intensities of plutonium. We report the development of machine-learning software that can identify gallium and quantify its concentration in plutonium matrices. This work has the potential to provide a rapid and nearly non-destructive technique that allows more confidence in characterizing the composition of materials that are present within complex actinide associated targets. We describe how our LIBS measurements and data analysis methods have successfully quantified the gallium concentration in a variety of samples.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Kinetic Model-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Plastic Pyrolysis: Linking Process Dynamics to Economic Viability

This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.

petrochemicals↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cost effectiveness of preemptive school closures to mitigate pandemic influenza outbreaks of differing severity in the United States

Background: Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may be considered as part of national pandemic preparedness as a first line defense against influenza pandemics. Preemptive school closures (PSCs) are an NPI reserved for severe pandemics and are highly effective in slowing influenza spread but have unintended consequences. Methods: We used results of simulated PSC impacts for a 1957-like pandemic (i.e., an influenza pandemic with a high case fatality rate) to estimate population health impacts and quantify PSC costs at the national level using three geographical scales, four closure durations, and three dismissal decision criteria (i.e., the number of cases detected to trigger closures). At the Chicago regional level, we also used results from simulated 1957-like, 1968-like, and 2009-like pandemics. Our net estimated economic impacts resulted from educational productivity costs plus loss of income associated with providing childcare during closures after netting out productivity gains from averted influenza illness based on the number of cases and deaths for each mitigation strategy. Results: For the 1957-like, national-level model, estimated net PSC costs and averted cases ranged from $\$7.5$ billion (2016 USD) averting 14.5 million cases for two-week, community-level closures to $\$97$ billion averting 47 million cases for 12-week, county-level closures. We found that 2-week school-by-school PSCs had the lowest cost per discounted life-year gained compared to county-wide or school district–wide closures for both the national and Chicago regional-level analyses of all pandemics. The feasibility of spatiotemporally precise triggering is questionable for most locales. Theoretically, this would be an attractive early option to allow more time to assess transmissibility and severity of a novel influenza virus. However, we also found that county-wide PSCs of longer durations (8 to 12 weeks) could avert the most cases (31–47 million) and deaths (105,000–156,000); however, the net cost would be considerably greater ($\$88$-$\$103$ billion net of averted illness costs) for the national-level, 1957-like analysis. Conclusions: We found that the net costs per death averted ($\$180,000$-$\$4.2$ million) for the national-level, 1957-like scenarios were generally less than the range of values recommended for regulatory impact analyses ($\$4.6$ to 15.0 million). This suggests that the economic benefits of national-level PSC strategies could exceed the costs of these interventions during future pandemics with highly transmissible strains with high case fatality rates. In contrast, the PSC outcomes for regional models of the 1968-like and 2009-like pandemics were less likely to be cost effective; more targeted and shorter duration closures would be recommended for these pandemics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Project Final Report - Advanced Oxygen Separation from Air Using a Novel Mixed Matrix Membrane

This report describes a summary of the findings of the project. The technical work was divided into three activities: 1) technoeconomic analysis; 2) membrane component development (support layer, selective layer development, and gutter layer formulation); and 3) hollow fiber formation. The technoeconomic analysis includes operating, capital, and materials costs of an oxygen enrichment system with 1-3 stages. The analysis concluded that the desired gas quality (90-95% O2) cannot be reached with a single stage. The triple stage system yielded the best overall product quality at lower membrane performance levels but with the highest cost. For the membrane development activities, functionalized nanodiamonds have been shown to slightly improve membrane formation behaviors and gas permeability performance. For example, support layers based on polysulfone-nanodiamond composites have been formed that increase the material’s O2 permeability by over a factor of 150, however, at the cost of selectivity that suggests a change in transport mechanism. Furthermore, nanodiamonds have been found to improve membrane durability. Improvements in selective and gutter layers also have been accomplished. An additional accomplishment is the demonstration of phase inversion of polysulfone-nanodiamond composites that ensures that hollow fiber formation can be performed. Finally, the interfaces between support, gutter, and selective layers were briefly examined and the resulting membrane material consisting of all three layers gave good performance in an O2 separation from N2. The three-layer prototype membrane gave permeability of 29.2-32.2 Barrers, which equates to permeance of approximately 290-320 GPU, which is lower than the TEA informed goal of 500 GPU. O2/N2 selectivity ranged from 5.2-6.2, which is consistent with the less costly two-stage implementation of the technology. In summary, new materials have been developed for O2 concentration from air and are well-suited to a hollow fiber format.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Recycled Paper as a Source of Renewable Jet Fuel in the United States

Converting biomass into jet fuel involves more than the core chemical process. The overall process includes the logistics of harvesting and transporting the biomass, handling and preparing the material for processing, and processing and disposal of waste. All of these activities contribute to cost. Controlling cost involves more than developing efficient process chemistry. Choice of feedstock also has a significant impact on process economics. We consider chemical conversion of paper from municipal solid waste as a feedstock for the production of jet fuel and diesel. Paper has a significantly higher cellulose content than raw lignocellulosic biomass such as corn stover, so it requires less pretreatment to convert it into hydrocarbons than lignocellulosic biomass. Our techno-economic analysis showed that the cost of converting paper waste into jet fuel is about $1.00/gal less than jet fuel produced from corn stover. Although the cost of recycling paper into jet fuel is less than producing it from corn stover, the process is not competitive with petroleum. We estimated a minimum selling price of $3.97/gal for paper-derived jet fuel. Our sensitivity studies indicated that the biggest economic obstacle is the cost of cellulose hydrolysis. Direct hydrogenation of paper to sugar alcohols combined with increased economy of scale could make recycling paper jet fuel competitive.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

OR-AGENT framework – Architecting electrified heavy-duty drayage applications

The widespread adoption of zero-emission vehicles in heavy-duty (HD) commercial freight transportation faces considerable technoeconomic challenges. For heavy-duty trucks, ensuring high uptime, cost parity with diesel, and safety standards is especially critical as these vehicles operate over long distances with heavy loads, where any downtime or off-nominal behaviors significantly impacts logistics, productivity, and the total cost of ownership. Unlike traditional diesel refueling, BEV charging infrastructure must be co-optimized with vehicle deployment, operational demands, and grid capacity to ensure cost-effective and reliable freight operations. However, the lack of a standardized ownership and service model has led to a fragmented approach—where commercial vehicle operators may invest in, own, and maintain both vehicle/batteries and charging/energy infrastructure. This disconnect may exclude energy service providers from the equation, forcing fleet operators to explore ‘behind-the-fence’ energy solutions that increase capital investment, operational downtime, overhead costs, and, in some cases, net carbon emissions. To address these issues, this study introduces OR-AGENT (Optimal Regional Architecture Generation for Efficient National Transport), a comprehensive modeling framework that integrates powertrain architectures, charging infrastructures, and energy backbone systems into a cohesive strategy. In this paper, OR-AGENT is applied to develop an interconnected systems architecture for energy efficiency and resiliency enhancement of heavy-duty drayage vehicles at the Port of Savannah, GA. This framework showcases an interconnected systems approach to electrifying heavy-duty drayage vehicles at the Port of Savannah, GA. The study assessed BEVs with 400–1200 kWh battery capacities, accounting for seasonal variations in weather and freight routing. A diverse charging mix (150 kW–1250 kW) was evaluated alongside grid capacity constraints, cost, and carbon intensity analysis, leading to the development of a strategic microgrid/Distributed Energy Resources (DER) deployment architecture to ensure a reliable and sustainable transition. However, the findings also highlight the need for alternative zero-emission solutions for remaining trips, such as larger batteries, electrified roadways, hydrogen powertrains, or net-zero emission fuels. In conclusion, the findings are incorporated into a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) model to identify optimal architectures for an interconnected electrified ecosystem.

Commercial vehicles↗

DOE OSTI2022

Solid Oxide Cell and Stack Manufacturing Cost Tool

This is the user manual for the SOC Manufacturing Cost Tool spreadsheet. The manual details the use and meaning of each tab, color scheme, and spreadsheet operation. Also detailed are specific instructions for end-user modification and inputs to tailor the tool to their specific technology. To access the cost tool, please visit: <a href="https://netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=d224ad08-6a38-402a-9cad-907db19e394f" rel="noopener noreferrer">Energy Analysis | netl.doe.gov</a>.

cost modeling↗

DOE OSTI2023

Feasibility Analysis for the Use of Retrofitted Air-Conditioners Using Thermal Energy Storage (TES) for High Ambient Temperature (HAT) Countries

In high ambient temperature (HAT) countries, summer temperatures exceed 35℃, degrading the performance of air-conditioning systems and straining power grids. In this paper, a feasibility analysis was conducted to investigate potential savings during the peak using latent Thermal Energy Storage (TES) at near room phase-change temperatures, replacing condensers, thus, minimizing temperature lifts. Weather data, building loads, and baseline air-conditioning systems data were gathered for Dubai. A transient vapor-compression model in Modelica was used to compare the COP, total power input and cooling capacity of the air-conditioner at peak hours when ambient temperatures range between 35 – 45 ⁰C versus the TES-Phase-Change Material (PCM) melting temperatures from 22 – 28⁰C. The results indicate that the TES-PCM can enhance the system COP at the peak by a factor 1.4 and 2 for during for outdoor temperatures of 35 – 40⁰C, and 40 – 45⁰C, respectively. Lower melting temperature PCMs were able to reduce the required power input by 30-50%, with more savings occurring at higher temperature days. On the other hand, higher temperature PCMs enhancements were minimal especially at outdoor ambient temperatures ranging between 35 – 40⁰C. Improvements to the cooling capacity range from 8 – 18 % for the outdoor temperature range of 35 – 45 ⁰C. An economic analysis was conducted to find the potential saving in utility costs for 30%, 60%, and 90% of the space cooling demands of Dubai, and find the trade-off points between utility savings and cost of PCM-TES implementation. If the peak loads are to be shifted by 6 hours daily, the percentage utility savings for the city is 18%. Using estimated costs of the PCM-TES, ranging from $200-500/kWh, the daily load shifting hours were estimated to range from 4 hours at the lowest cost systems to 2.5 hours at the highest costs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Techno-Economic Analysis for GTI's Compact Hydrogen Generator

A technoeconomic analysis of the compact hydrogen generator compared to a traditional steam methane reformer (SMR) was performed for both processes with and without carbon capture. The project goal for the technoeconomic analysis was to demonstrate a minimum of 20% lower CAPEX and 15% lower levelized cost of hydrogen compared to SMR with and without carbon capture. GTI obtained baseline capital and costs for the SMR with and without and methodology to calculate the levelized cost of hydrogen from an IEAGHG Technical Report: 2017-02 Techno-Economic Evaluation of SMR Based Standalone (Merchant) Hydrogen Plant with CCS. This methodology was then applied to GTI’s compact hydrogen generator using direct material costs previously obtained from a reputable engineering procurement and construction company, CB&I Howe-Baker. The analysis was performed for plants producing 90MMSCFD (million standard cubic feed per day) of hydrogen. Direct material costs were converted to total installed costs and total capital requirements using the same multiplying factors for both processes. We have found that the direct materials cost of the compact hydrogen generator is less than half the direct materials cost required for SMR without capture, and about one quarter the direct materials cost of SMR with carbon capture. This low materials cost translates into a significant CAPEX savings and lower levelized cost of hydrogen that exceed the goals of the techno-economic assessment. We have found that the CHG has a 43% lower installed cost and capital requirement compared to SMR without capture, that results in a levelized cost of hydrogen that is 19% lower than SMR. When 90% CO2 capture is added to the plants, the advantages is even better. The CHG has a 51% lower installed and capital requirement compared to SMR with capture, resulting in a 28% lower levelized cost of hydrogen. A sensitivity analysis was performed and showed natural gas feedstock cost and discount rate to be the main contributors to hydrogen price sensitivity. Given these significant cost advantages, GTI is encouraged to continue to develop the technology and market the economic advantages as well as the efficiency gains and ability to inherently capture CO2.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dual-loop Solvent-based CCS for Net Negative CO 2 Emissions with Lower Cost

This final technical report details the successful design, construction, and operational validation of an innovative dual-loop CO 2 capture technology designed to achieve deep decarbonization (>99%) from Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plants that results in the electricity with carbon intensity of approximate 42 kg CO 2 -eq/MWh, less than the electricity produced by solar PV. The integrated process couples a primary aqueous solvent (in this project, a water lean solvent – WLS) absorption loop for bulk CO 2 removal with a secondary potassium hydroxide (KOH) polishing loop featuring electrochemical regeneration. This architecture leverages the higher exergy efficiency of the primary loop while utilizing the fastest kinetic of the secondary loop to capture dilute residual CO 2 , achieving an overall capture rate of 99.9% and co-producing pure hydrogen after moisture being condensed and dehydrated. Technical feasibility was established through a comprehensive 2,000-hour experimental campaign on a bench-scale fully-integrated unit (using 4” absorber and 4” stripper) with the feeding flue gas flowrate in the range of 8-20 cfm, confirming the attainment of Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 4. The project executed extensive parametric testing followed by 1,000 hours of continuous steady-state testing, demonstrating exceptional process stability with the electrochemical regenerator exhibiting less than a 10% reduction in electrical conductivity over the duration of the campaign. Operational characterization gathering on the bench unit revealed distinct energy profiles for the hybrid system: the primary loop required approximately 280 kJ mol -1 for bulk removal, while the polishing loop required approximately 1,600 kJ mol -1 specifically when reducing dilute CO 2 concentrations from ~740 ppm down to <50 ppm. (Please note those energy values/numbers can only be viewed as relative relationship and should not be extrapolated as absolute values required for CO 2 capture). Furthermore, dynamic testing validated the system’s flexibility for utility applications, demonstrating a rapid process response time of <30 minutes to changes in flue gas flowrate. Emission monitoring confirmed that the dual-loop architecture effectively mitigates solvent losses, utilizing a water wash to remove entrained aerosols to <1 ppm. The Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) indicates a cost of capture of $\$$59.3/tonne and a Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of 71.7 $\$$/MWh at the overall capture efficiency of 99.8% of total carbon in the flue gas stream, with sensitivity analysis identifying an economic optimum when the primary loop captures 97% of the total CO 2 . A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) confirms the technology’s potential for net-negative emissions, determining a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 52 kg CO 2 -eq/MWh—significantly lower than the baseline—which further decreases to 42 kg CO 2 -eq/MWh when crediting the displacement of conventional hydrogen production.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fire Risk Investigation in 3D (FRI3D) Software and Process for Integrated Fire Modeling

Modeling and implementing fire safety for nuclear power plants is a costly activity. Because of the complexity of fire phenomena and multiple operational procedures, it is difficult to computationally provide assurance that mitigation methods are adequate for critical areas using current analysis methods in a cost-effective manner. The nuclear industry needs efficient methods to provide more accurate modeling and optimize mitigation methods to improve nuclear power plant understanding for fire scenarios. This report describes the work done over the last two year on the Fire Risk Investigation in 3D (FRI3D) software. This software simplifies the modeling process by importing existing plant models and data, incorporating a 3D modeling environment and coupling with the fire simulation software CFAST. This eliminates the manual labor and errors associated with much of the fire modeling process. The report lays out the status and path of FRID software for the Risk Informed Safety Analysis pathway of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability project at Idaho National Laboratory and industry collaborators to best help reduce costs and improve realism in fire probabilistic risk analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Technical and Economic Assessment of LWR Flexible Operation for Generation and Demand Balancing to Optimize Plant Revenue

With increased penetration of subsidized variable renewable energy (VRE) resources and competition from low natural gas prices, existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) are struggling to remain economically competitive. This work examines the potential economic competitiveness of various thermal energy storage (TES) technologies when coupled directly or indirectly with a NPP. To highlight their relative economic competitiveness, we contrast several energy storage solutions in stochastic dispatch optimization. We leverage data from recent work analyzing a range of TES technologies with varying capital costs, performance, and technology readiness level (TRL) to establish our case. We explore inserting these technologies into an electricity market with existing nuclear generation and large projected variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration. Although these technologies' projected capital costs may make them unlikely candidates in their current state, this analysis demonstrates a high-fidelity techno-economic analysis of energy storage. Furthermore, as the projected cost of energy storage technologies evolves, this analysis sets a precedent for similar future investigations. One region with projected trends that may be unfavorable for existing nuclear capacity is the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) market. New York state’s baseload generation has been historically provided by fossil-fired and nuclear assets. However, amid economic pressures from subsidized VREs and low natural gas prices, the state has recently deactivated Indian Point nuclear power plant units 2 and 3. Furthermore, the state plans to meet its zero-emission generation target by 2040 by replacing fossil-fired capacity with significant investments in VRE resources like wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage. Increased intermittent resource penetration lowers the baseload power requirement, adding further economic pressure to the state’s three remaining NPPs still in operation. With three NPPs still in operation in New York, this work analyzes potential economic benefits to NPPs on the New York grid when directly or indirectly coupled with various TES technologies. This work requires two modeling steps to analyze the potential economic benefits of various system configurations of the TES directly or indirectly coupled with nuclear. First, this analysis leverages capacity expansion modeling by experts at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Using their deterministic capacity expansion model, U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN), EPRI analysts evaluated the capacity and generation evolution of the New York state energy market under four projection scenarios. These four projection scenarios were developed to represent the potential evolution of the capacity and generation in NYISO from 2015 to 2050 under various economic, technology, and policy constraints. The results from these capacity expansion models are then used as boundary conditions in the second modeling step. The second modeling step uses the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) for a set of stochastic techno-economic analyses (STEAs) to investigate the potential increase in the economic viability of various configurations of the TES. With no current capacity expansion capabilities, HERON takes the data generated from US-REGEN for 2050 to generate synthetic load, solar, and wind data. Then HERON economically optimizes the capacity and dispatch of the various TES configurations. The potential economic benefit is the differential net present value (NPV) of the TES configurations from the no-TES baseline. As a stochastic techno-economic analysis package, HERON introduces uncertainty into the economic metrics, while US-REGEN trades resolution for reduced computational complexity. Using HERON also allows the modeling of direct thermal coupling, a feature not common in capacity and dispatch models. As expected, with high capital costs, the costs of introducing energy storage for all the technologies considered outweighed the potential economic benefit of this strategy for flexible plant operation. The benefit of this analysis is primarily in demonstrating a workflow that examines innovative solutions to increase NPP revenue via TES coupling. HERON’s stochastic capacity and dispatch optimization process used in this work has proven an effective tool in observing and evaluating the impact of introducing storage technologies in a grid energy system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Homomorphic Encryption for Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence Applications

Third-party and expert analysis is a cost-effective solution for solving specialized problems or processing large datasets related to reactor structural health monitoring and nondestructive evaluation. However, when handling proprietary information, third-party and expert analysts pose a privacy risk. To address this challenge, Homomorphic Encryption (HE) permits arithmetic operations on encrypted data without exposing the underlying data. Implementations of Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms using HE greatly enhances the capabilities of third-party analysts while maintaining a low security risk. This paper details current success in applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Fully Connected Neural Networks (NN) using the Microsoft SEAL implementation of the popular CKKS Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) algorithm. The MNIST Handwritten Dataset is analyzed as a proof-of-concept demonstration of the implementations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗