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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Solar fine scale structures in the corona, transition region, and lower atmosphere

The American Science and Engineering Soft X-ray Imaging Payload and the Naval Research Laboratory High Resolution Telescope and Spectrograph (HRTS) were launched from White Sands on 1987 December 11 in coordinated sounding rocket flights. The goal was to investigate the correspondence of fine-scale structures from different temperature regimes in the solar atmosphere, and particularly the relationship between X-ray bright points (XBPs) and transition region explosive events. We present results of the analysis of co-aligned X-ray images, maps of sites of transition region explosive events observed in C IV 10(exp 5), HRTS 1600 A spectroheliograms of the T(sub min) region, and ground-based magnetogram and He I 10830 A images. We examined the relationship of He I 10830 A dark features and evolving magnetic features which correspond to XBPs. We note a frequent double ribbon pattern of the He I dark feature counterparts to XBPs. We discuss an analysis of the relationship of XBPs to evolving magnetic features by Webb et al., which shows that converging magnetic features of opposite polarity are the most significant magnetic field counterparts to XBPs. The magnetic bipolar features associated with XBPs appear as prominent network elements in chromospheric and transition region images. The features in C IV observations corresponding to XBP sites are in general bright, larger scale (approximately 10 arcsec) regions of complex velocity fields of order 40 km/s, which is typical of brighter C IV network elements. These C IV features do not reach the approximately 100 km/s velocities seen in the C IV explosive events. Also, there are many similar C IV bright network features without a corresponding XBP in the X-ray image. The transition region explosive events do not correspond directly to XBPs. The explosive events appear to be concentrated in the quiet Sun at the edges of strong network, or within weaker field strength network regions. We find a greater number of C IV events than expected from the results of a previous Spacelab 2 HRTS disk survey. We attribute this at least partly to better spatial resolution with the newer HRTS data. The full-disk X-ray image shows a pattern of dark lanes in quiet Sun areas. The number density of C IV events is twice as large inside as outside a dark lane (4.6 x 10(exp -3) vs. 2.3 x 10(exp -3) explosive events per arcsec (exp 2)). The dark lane corresponds to an old decaying magnetic neutral line. We suggest that this provides an increased opportunity for small-scale convergence and reconnection of opposite polarity magnetic field features, in analogy with the results of Webb et al. for XBPs but at a reduced scale of reconnection.

Moses, Dan↗
NASA NTRS1996

New Nonlinear Multigrid Analysis

The nonlinear multigrid is an efficient algorithm for solving the system of nonlinear equations arising from the numerical discretization of nonlinear elliptic boundary problems. In this paper, we present a new nonlinear multigrid analysis as an extension of the linear multigrid theory presented by Bramble. In particular, we prove the convergence of the nonlinear V-cycle method for a class of mildly nonlinear second order elliptic boundary value problems which do not have full elliptic regularity.

Xie, Dexuan↗
NASA NTRS2015

Nested Focusing Optics for Compact Neutron Sources

NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) have developed novel neutron grazing incidence optics for use with small-scale portable neutron generators. The technology was developed to enable the use of commercially available neutron generators for applications requiring high flux densities, including high performance imaging and analysis. Nested grazing incidence mirror optics, with high collection efficiency, are used to produce divergent, parallel, or convergent neutron beams. Ray tracing simulations of the system (with source-object separation of 10m for 5 meV neutrons) show nearly an order of magnitude neutron flux increase on a 1-mm diameter object. The technology is a result of joint development efforts between NASA and MIT researchers seeking to maximize neutron flux from diffuse sources for imaging and testing applications.

Nabors, Sammy A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiscale Modeling of Thermoplastics Using Atomistic-informed Micromechanics

A multiscale model was developed for predicting the thermoelastic behavior of semi-crystalline thermoplastic materials for composite aerospace applications. At the highest scale containing the semi-crystalline spherulite in an amorphous matrix, the generalized method of cells, or high fidelity method of cells, was used to perform the homogenization calculations to obtain the effective properties. Models were developed assuming a cubic, or spherical shape, for the spherulite to understand if the morphology of the spherulite affects the effective thermoelastic properties. The generalized method of cells was used to model at the repeating unit cells at the subscales of the microstructure including the lamellae stacks and granular crystal blocks. The scales are integrated using the multiscale micromechanics method in the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool. Data from molecular dynamics simulations were used as inputs for the amorphous and crystalline constituents. Convergence studies were performed to determine the best level of discretization for the repeating unit cell at the highest scale. Effective Young’s modulus, shear modulus, Poisson’s ratio, coefficient of thermal expansion, and thermal conductivity were predicted for polyether ether ketone and polyether ketone ketone, and very good agreement between the model utilizing the cubic spherulite and the experimental data, where available, was observed for polyether ketone ketone. Normalization of the data for the bulk polyether ketone ketone, against amorphous data, improved the predictions as compared to experimental data. Overall, the high fidelity method of cells predicted a stiffer response then the generalized method of cells as the crystallinity was increased. The shape of the spherulite had a minimal effect on the predicted bulk properties of the polymers.

thermoplastics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Managing Increased Electric Vehicle Shares on Decarbonized Bulk Power Systems

Transportation electrification and power sector decarbonization - the convergence of these two trends present a complex planning problem requiring realistic, region-specific modeling and analysis to ensure that both can happen rapidly and cost effectively. This project, funded through the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office, models the evolution of the U.S. bulk power system (through 2050) in response to large-scale EV charging across all on-road vehicle segments. We will assess the opportunity and value of demand-side flexibility (i.e., "smart" charging) for reducing energy costs, increasing renewable generation shares, and managing future EV loads on the bulk power system. Overall, this study aims to provide an improved understanding of least-cost solutions for managing EV load growth on the grid and will make high-resolution EV load data sets publicly available for further analysis.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
NASA NTRS2017

Nearfield Summary and Statistical Analysis of the Second AIAA Sonic Boom Prediction Workshop

A summary is provided for the Second AIAA Sonic Boom Workshop held 8-9 January 2017 in conjunction with AIAA SciTech 2017. The workshop used three required models of increasing complexity: an axisymmetric body, a wing body, and a complete configuration with flow-through nacelle. An optional complete configuration with propulsion boundary conditions is also provided. These models are designed with similar nearfield signatures to isolate geometry and shock/expansion interaction effects. Eleven international participant groups submitted nearfield signatures with forces, pitching moment, and iterative convergence norms. Statistics and grid convergence of these nearfield signatures are presented. These submissions are propagated to the ground, and noise levels are computed. This allows the grid convergence and the statistical distribution of a noise level to be computed. While progress is documented since the first workshop, improvement to the analysis methods for a possible subsequent workshop are provided. The complete configuration with flow-through nacelle showed the most dramatic improvement between the two workshops. The current workshop cases are more relevant to vehicles with lower loudness and have the potential for lower annoyance than the first workshop cases. The models for this workshop with quieter ground noise levels than the first workshop exposed weaknesses in analysis, particularly in convective discretization.

Park, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Nearfield Summary and Statistical Analysis of the Second AIAA Sonic Boom PredictionWorkshop

A summary is provided for the Second AIAA Sonic Boom Workshop held 8–9 January 2017 in conjunction with AIAA SciTech 2017. The workshop used three required models of increasing complexity: an axisymmetric body, a wing body, and a complete configuration with flow-through nacelle. An optional complete configuration with propulsion boundary conditions is also provided. These models are designed with similar nearfield signatures to isolate geometry and shock/expansion interaction e ects. Eleven international participant groups submitted nearfield signatures with forces, pitching moment, and iterative convergence norms. Statistics and grid convergence of these nearfield signatures are presented. These submissions are propagated to the ground, and noise levels are computed. This allows the grid convergence and the statistical distribution of a noise level to be computed. While progress is documented since the first workshop, improvement to the analysis methods for a possible subsequent workshop are provided. The complete configuration with flow-through nacelle showed the most dramatic improvement between the two workshops. The current workshop cases are more relevant to vehicles with lower loudness and have the potential for lower annoyance than the first workshop cases. The models for this workshop with quieter ground noise levels than the first workshop exposed weaknesses in analysis, particularly in convective discretization.

Park, Michael A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Revisiting Artifacts of Kohn–Sham Density Functionals for Biosimulation

We revisit the problem of unphysical charge density delocalization/fractionalization induced by the self-interaction error of common approximate Kohn–Sham (KS) density functional theory functionals on simulation of small to medium-sized proteins in a vacuum. Aside from producing unphysical electron densities and total energies, the vanishing of the HOMO–LUMO gap associated with the unphysical charge delocalization leads to an unphysical low-energy spectrum and catastrophic failure of most popular solvers for the KS self-consistent field (SCF) problem. We apply a robust quasi-Newton SCF solver to obtain solutions for some of these difficult cases. The anatomy of the charge delocalization is revealed by the natural deformation orbitals obtained from the density matrix difference between the Hartree–Fock and KS solutions; the charge delocalization not only can occur between charged fragments (such as in zwitterionic polypeptides) but also involves neutral fragments. The vanishing-gap phenomenon and troublesome SCF convergence are both attributed to the unphysical KS Fock operator eigenspectra of molecular fragments (e.g., amino acids or their side chains). Analysis of amino acid pairs suggests that the unphysical charge delocalization can be partially ameliorated by the use of some range-separated hybrid functionals but not by semilocal or standard hybrid functionals. Last, we demonstrate that solutions without the unphysical charge delocalization can be located even for semilocal KS functionals highly prone to such defects, but such solutions have non-Aufbau character and are unstable with respect to mixing of the non-overlapping “frontier” orbitals. Caution should be exercised when unexpectedly small (or vanishing) HOMO–LUMO gaps and atypical SCF convergence patterns (e.g., oscillatory) are observed in KS DFT simulations in any context (bio or otherwise).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1980

Kinetic energy budgets in areas of intense convection

A kinetic energy budget analysis of the AVE-SESAME 1 period which coincided with the deadly Red River Valley tornado outbreak is presented. Horizontal flux convergence was found to be the major kinetic energy source to the region, while cross contour destruction was the major sink. Kinetic energy transformations were dominated by processes related to strong jet intrusion into the severe storm area. A kinetic energy budget of the AVE 6 period also is presented. The effects of inherent rawinsonde data errors on widely used basic kinematic parameters, including velocity divergence, vorticity advection, and kinematic vertical motion are described. In addition, an error analysis was performed in terms of the kinetic energy budget equation. Results obtained from downward integration of the continuity equation to obtain kinematic values of vertical motion are described. This alternate procedure shows promising results in severe storm situations.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extending the predictive power of perturbative QCD using the principle of maximum conformality and the Bayesian analysis

In addition to the evaluation of high-order loop contributions, the precision and predictive power of perturbative QCD (pQCD) predictions depends on two important issues: (1) how to achieve a reliable, convergent fixed-order series, and (2) how to reliably estimate the contributions of unknown higher-order terms. The recursive use of renormalization group equation, together with the Principle of Maximum Conformality (PMC), eliminates the renormalization scheme-and-scale ambiguities of the conventional pQCD series. The result is a conformal, scale-invariant series of finite order which also satisfies all of the principles of the renormalization group. In this paper we propose a novel Bayesian-based approach to estimate the size of the unknown higher order contributions based on an optimized analysis of probability distributions. We show that by using the PMC conformal series, in combination with the Bayesian analysis, one can consistently achieve high degree of reliability estimates for the unknown high order terms. Thus the predictive power of pQCD can be greatly improved. We illustrate this procedure for two pQCD observables: R e+e– and R τ , which are each known up to four loops in pQCD. Numerical analyses confirm that by using the scale-independent and more convergent PMC conformal series, one can achieve reliable Bayesian probability estimates for the unknown higher-order contributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Algebraic Multigrid with Filtering: An Efficient Preconditioner for Interior Point Methods in Large-Scale Contact Mechanics Optimization

Large-scale contact mechanics simulations are crucial in many engineering fields such as structural design and manufacturing. In the frictionless case, contact can be modeled by minimizing an energy functional; however, these problems are often nonlinear, nonconvex, and increasingly difficult to solve as mesh resolution increases. In this work, we employ a Newton-based interior-point (IP) filter line-search method, an effective approach for large-scale constrained optimization. While this method converges rapidly, each iteration requires solving a large saddle-point linear system that becomes ill-conditioned as the optimization process converges, largely due to IP treatment of the contact constraints. Such ill-conditioning can hinder solver scalability and increase iteration counts with mesh refinement. Here, to address this, we introduce a novel preconditioner, algebraic multigrid with filtering (AMGF), tailored to the Schur complement of the saddle-point system. Building on the classical AMG solver, commonly used for elasticity, we augment it with a specialized subspace correction that filters near null space components introduced by contact interface constraints. Through theoretical analysis and numerical experiments on a range of linear and nonlinear contact problems, we demonstrate that the proposed solver achieves mesh independent convergence and maintains robustness against the ill-conditioning that notoriously plagues IP methods. These results indicate that AMGF makes contact mechanics simulations more tractable and broadens the applicability of Newton-based IP methods in challenging engineering scenarios. More broadly, AMGF is well suited for problems, optimization or otherwise, where solver performance is limited by a low-dimensional subspace, such as those arising from localized constraints, interface conditions, or model heterogeneities. This makes the method widely applicable beyond contact mechanics and constrained optimization.

Mathematics and Computing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Glauber-Theory Calculations of High-Energy Nuclear Scattering Observables Using Variational Monte Carlo Wave Functions

Experiments using intermediate- to high-energy radioactive nuclear beams present numerous findings. Extracting important properties of physical observables relies on a firm theoretical analysis. Though Glauber theory is believed to work well, no convincing calculation has so far been done. Here, we perform ab initio Glauber theory calculations of both elastic differential cross sections and total reaction cross sections for p+ 12 C, 12 C+ 12 C, and 6 He+ 12 C systems. The wave functions of both 6 He and 12 C are generated by variational Monte Carlo calculations with spatial and spin-isospin correlations induced by realistic two- and three-nucleon potentials. Glauber’s phase-shift function is computed by Monte Carlo integration up to all orders of nucleon-nucleon multiple scatterings. We show an excellent performance of the Glauber description to the selected data on the above systems. We also find that the cumulant expansion of the phase-shift function converges rapidly up to the second order for the above systems. This finding will open up interesting applications for the analysis of high-energy nuclear experiments.

Horiuchi, W. [Osaka Metropolitan University (Japan↗
NASA NTRS1990

A novel potential/viscous flow coupling technique for computing helicopter flow fields

Because of the complexity of helicopter flow field, a zonal method of analysis of computational aerodynamics is required. Here, a new procedure for coupling potential and viscous flow is proposed. An overlapping, velocity coupling technique is to be developed with the unique feature that the potential flow surface singularity strengths are obtained directly from the Navier-Stokes at a smoother inner fluid boundary. The closed-loop iteration method proceeds until the velocity field is converged. This coupling should provide the means of more accurate viscous computations of the near-body and rotor flow fields with resultant improved analysis of such important performance parameters as helicopter fuselage drag and rotor airloads.

Summa, J. Michael↗
NASA NTRS2001

Precipitation Efficiency in the Tropical Deep Convective Regime

Precipitation efficiency in the tropical deep convective regime is analyzed based on a 2-D cloud resolving simulation. The cloud resolving model is forced by the large-scale vertical velocity and zonal wind and large-scale horizontal advections derived from TOGA COARE for a 20-day period. Precipitation efficiency may be defined as a ratio of surface rain rate to sum of surface evaporation and moisture convergence (LSPE) or a ratio of surface rain rate to sum of condensation and deposition rates of supersaturated vapor (CMPE). Moisture budget shows that the atmosphere is moistened (dryed) when the LSPE is less (more) than 100 %. The LSPE could be larger than 100 % for strong convection. This indicates that the drying processes should be included in cumulus parameterization to avoid moisture bias. Statistical analysis shows that the sum of the condensation and deposition rates is bout 80 % of the sum of the surface evaporation rate and moisture convergence, which ads to proportional relation between the two efficiencies when both efficiencies are less han 100 %. The CMPE increases with increasing mass-weighted mean temperature and creasing surface rain rate. This suggests that precipitation is more efficient for warm environment and strong convection. Approximate balance of rates among the condensation, deposition, rain, and the raindrop evaporation is used to derive an analytical solution of the CMPE.

Li, Xiaofan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phenotypically anchored transcriptomics across diverse agrichemicals reveals conserved pathways and unique gene expression signatures in zebrafish

Agrichemicals such as herbicides, fungicides, insecticides, and biocides are widely used in agriculture, yet some are associated with adverse effects in humans and the environment. While many of these chemicals have been extensively studied in vitro and are included in the EPA’s ToxCast program, comprehensive in vivo comparisons using RNA sequencing across structurally diverse agrichemicals, in a single screening platform, are lacking. In this study, we examined structurally diverse agrichemicals found in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Toxcast Phase I and II library by statically exposing early life stage zebrafish at 6 h post fertilization (hpf) until 120 hpf at concentrations ranging from 0.25 to 100 µM. Morphological outcomes were assessed at 120 hpf across 10 endpoints, including yolk sac edema, craniofacial malformations, and axis abnormalities. Chemicals that produced robust concentration-response relationships were selected for transcriptomic profiling. For transcriptomic analysis, zebrafish were statically exposed to each chemical and sampled at 48 hpf, prior to the onset of morphological effects observed at 120 hpf. Differential expression analysis identified between 0 and 4,538 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) per chemical, with no clear correlation to morphological severity. Both DEG and co-expression network analyses revealed chemical-specific expression patterns that converged on shared biological pathways, including neurodevelopment and cytoskeletal organization. Key regulatory genes such as mylpfa and krt4 were identified within co-expression modules, suggesting their potential role in conserved toxicity mechanisms. Semantic similarity analysis of enriched gene ontology (GO) terms, when compared to existing datasets, highlighted gaps in the annotation of neurodevelopmental processes, indicating that some in vivo effects may not be fully captured by current curated resources. The results provide new insights into the modes of action of diverse agrichemicals and establish a framework for understanding how agrichemical structure relates to biological function in a vertebrate model.

agrichemical↗
NASA NTRS1990

An error analysis of least-squares finite element method of velocity-pressure-vorticity formulation for Stokes problem

A theoretical proof of the optimal rate of convergence for the least-squares method is developed for the Stokes problem based on the velocity-pressure-vorticity formula. The 2D Stokes problem is analyzed to define the product space and its inner product, and the a priori estimates are derived to give the finite-element approximation. The least-squares method is found to converge at the optimal rate for equal-order interpolation.

Chang, Ching L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trajectory Engineering with Modular Patched Conics for Entry Systems and TPS (TEMPEST)

Brief Presenter Biography (35 word limit): Bohdan Wesely is an Aerospace Engineer in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at Ames. He has worked on a variety of projects for NASA including integrated TPS (thermal protection system) flight hardware deliveries and testing services for commercial partners. Introduction: TEMPEST is a new trajectory analysis framework that is designed to fill the gap between dedicated flight mechanics tools and aerothermal and TPS sizing tools. The project started as an SJSU master’s thesis and has since evolved into a general conceptual design tool capable of studying a wide variety of entry problems. Development is ongoing in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at NASA ARC. Why TEMPEST: Space missions involving entry into a planetary atmosphere involve a series of unique requirements across multiple disciplines. Whether it is traditional entry descent and landing (EDL), or aerocapture, the vehicle must navigate to its target landing location or orbit state, and the TPS must protect the payload during entry. The design process typically involves iterative handoffs between various flight mechanics, flow solver, and material response level tools. During the early conceptual phase, a wide variety of feasible trajectories are simulated in a Monte Carlo scenario which broadly satisfy the mission or landing requirements. Next, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC), and other flow solver analyses are performed at various key trajectory points to generate an aero-database, heating and TPS design requirements also emerge at this stage. At this point, with updated aerodynamics from the various flow solvers, trajectories can be re-run, this in turn can change the required freestream conditions for the CFD tools, and as a project progresses, these analyses converge, and uncertainty is reduced. However, there is always a “hand-off” occurring between two inherently coupled phenomena. Analysis Description: One of the goals with TEMPEST is to use a variety of first principles estimation methods coupled with an atmosphere model to predict vehicle aerothermodynamics across the entire flight regime while propagating a 3 or 6 degree of freedom (DoF) trajectory. Aerodynamics methods include modified Newtonian, Maxwell and Cercignani- Lampis-Lord (CLL) for continuum, transitional, and free molecular flow regimes. Aerothermodynamics include boundary layer and reference enthalpy methods, and Mutation++ for non-equilibrium chemistry modeling. TEMPEST is also capable of stitching multiple trajectory segments together to study mission scenarios like multi-pass aerocapture and aero-gravity assists. Most of the program is implemented in MATLAB using modern system objects, it relies on several C++ shared libraries for supporting tools like Gmsh, the Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM), and Mutation++. The various first principles aerothermal estimation methods are discretized across either a structured axisymmetric panel mesh or an unstructured tri-mesh generated from an open-source tool such as Gmsh, this allows solutions on the same mesh to be compared across tools such as CB-Aero. CFD Coupling. A physics-aware, gaussian process CFD anchoring scheme is proposed to adjust the various first principles methods as a CFD database is populated. One goal for this anchoring module is to inform the project where CFD should be run. Full knowledge of the entire trajectory, atmosphere, and aerothermodynamics allows for easier identification of high sensitivity areas and uncertainty quantification. While the first principles effects are well known and proven accurate in existing tools such as CB- Aero and Cart3D, a physics aware CFD anchoring scheme increases tool credibility across a project lifecycle. Material Response Modeling. Correct TPS sizing is critical for optimizing mass for science payloads and ensuring mission success. The process typically involves a thermal analysis along the trajectory with surface heating environments as a boundary condition. Several design constraints are maximum bondline temperature and maximum recession with various margining techniques. The material response tool FIAT, developed out of NASA Ames, is currently being integrated into the TEMPEST environment. TPS recession, shape change, mass loss, and mass property alteration are all factors that can perturb an entry trajectory. For missions like Mars 2020, recession was minimal and was safely handled separately as a post process. For missions such as Jupiter Galileo with a high TPS mass fraction or asteroid entries, recession plays a major role. The proposed fully coupled scheme is to use an epoch-based approach where the trajectory integration is halted after a recession threshold, the energy balance and FIAT are solved at each panel, the mesh, aerodynamics, and mass properties are updated, and the trajectory continues. Several computational tradeoffs have been made during the development of TEMPEST to limit the cost of a single trajectory and preserve its utility as a conceptual, rapid iteration tool. Conclusion: Development of TEMPEST is ongoing and the project is still in its infancy. This talk aims to showcase its unique capabilities to support future NASA entry systems missions.

Bohdan O Wesely↗
DOE OSTI2021

Equatorial waves triggering extreme rainfall and floods in southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia

On the basis of detailed analysis of a case study and long-term climatology, it is shown that equatorial waves and their interactions serve as precursors for extreme rain and flood events in the central Maritime Continent region of southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. Meteorological conditions on January 22, 2019, leading to heavy rainfall and devastating flooding in this area were studied. It is shown that a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) and a convectively coupled Rossby wave (CCERW) embedded within the larger-scale envelope of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) enhanced convective phase, contributed to the onset of a mesoscale convective system which developed over the Java Sea. Low-Level convergence from the CCKW forced mesoscale convective organization and orographic ascent of moist air over the slopes of southwest Sulawesi. Climatological analysis shows that 92 % of December-January-February floods and 76% of extreme rain events in this region were immediately preceded by positive low-level westerly wind anomalies. It is estimated that both CCKWs and CCERWs propagating over Sulawesi double the chance of floods and extreme rain event development, which the probability of such hazardous events occurring during their combined activity is eight times greater than on a random day. While the MJO is a key component shaping tropical atmospheric variability, it is shown that its usefulness as a single factor for extreme weather-driven hazard prediction is limited.

Latos, Beata↗