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NASA NTRS1974

Cloud top height variability of strong convective cells

Cloud top height variability of cloud domes above the cirrostratus anvil was investigated for two severe local storm occurrences over Texas on May 12 and 13, 1972. Twenty-three domes were monitored and the average maximum height was 1.6 km above the anvil. It was estimated that a dome would take a maximum of about 6 min to grow from the anvil level to peak altitude based on measurements over the last 2 min of the growth period when the upward vertical velocity averaged 4 m/sec. The extreme vertical growth rate was 27 m/sec for a 30-sec period. This vertical growth rate compared with a range of 11.4-19.4 m sec determined from a method of estimating vertical motions based on laboratory measurements. Average dome collapse was at the same rate as the average ascent for the first 90 sec after the maximum altitude was reached.

Shenk, W. E.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multiple-platform and multiple-Doppler radar observations of a supercell thunderstorm in South America during RELAMPAGO

On 10 November 2018, during the RELAMPAGO field campaign in Argentina, South America, a thunderstorm with supercell characteristics was observed by an array of mobile observing instruments, including three Doppler on Wheels (DOW) radars. This is believed to be the first such storm ever sampled by multiple Doppler radars in South America, and one of perhaps two such sets of observations in the Southern Hemisphere. The observational strategies employed within the Córdoba Province on 10 November are described, as also is the evolution of the initial deep convective clouds through their organization into a supercell. In contrast to the archetypal supercell, the updraft rotation in this storm was rather short lived (~20 min), as also was the occurrence of damaging hail, causing us to question whether this indeed was indeed a supercell. However, additional data collected within the Córdoba Province provide us with evidence of other storms with this behavior, which appears to be attributable in part to effects of the local terrain. Thus, the structure and evolution of this storm documented during RELAMPAGO may be typical in this region.

Trapp, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ensemble-Based Characterization of Historical Storm Types in ERA5 over CONUS

We present Storm-Type Labeled Precipitation, a gridded dataset that classifies ERA5 precipitation over CONUS (20–50° N, 125–66° W) by storm type at 6-hourly resolution. Each grid cell/time step is assigned to one of five classes—mesoscale convective system (MCS), extratropical cyclone (ETC), hurricane (HUR), atmospheric river (AR), or other convective, with an “unidentified” code reserved for cases with no detected type. Two products are provided: (i) a TempestExtremes (TE)–only version, and (ii) a hybrid TRACK–TE version that uses TRACK for ETCs and HURs and TE for MCSs and ARs. Outputs are integer masks aligned to ERA5 precipitation, supporting storm-type attribution of rainfall, event compositing, trend analysis, and model evaluation. Future work will extend detection to high-resolution downscaled Earth system model projections to support evaluations of projected changes in hydrologic hazards that may threaten critical water and energy infrastructures.

Rastogi, Deeksha [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000204624027)↗

NASA NTRS2010

Sources and Losses of Ring Current Ions

During geomagnetic quiet times, in-situ measurements of ring current energetic ions (few to few tens of keVs) from THEMIS spacecraft often exhibit multiple ion populations at discrete energies that extend from the inner magnetosphere to the magnetopause at dayside or plasma sheet at nightside. During geomagnetic storm times, the levels of fluxes as well as the mean energies of these ions elevated dramatically and the more smooth distributions in energies and distances during quiet times are disrupted into clusters of ion populations with more confined spatial extends. This reveals local plasma heating processes that might have come into play. Several processes have been proposed. Magnetotail dipolarization, sudden enhancement of field-aligned current, local current disruptions, and plasma waves are possible mechanisms to heat the ions locally as well as strong convections of energetic ions directly from the magnetotail due to reconnections. We will examine two geomagnetic storms on October 11, 2008 and July 22, 2009 to reveal possible heating mechanisms. We will analyze in-situ plasma and magnetic field measurements from THEMIS, GOES, and DMSP for the events to study the ion pitch angle distributions and magnetic field perturbations in the auroral ionosphere and inner magnetosphere where the plasma heating processes occur.

Chen, Sheng-Hsien↗

NASA NTRS1982

The analysis and kinetic energy balance of an upper-level wind maximum during intense convection

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the formation and maintenance of the upper-level wind maximum which formed between 1800 and 2100 GMT, April 10, 1979, during the AVE-SESAME I period, when intense storms and tornadoes were experienced (the Red River Valley tornado outbreak). Radiosonde stations participating in AVE-SESAME I are plotted (centered on Oklahoma). National Meteorological Center radar summaries near the times of maximum convective activity are mapped, and height and isotach plots are given, where the formation of an upper-level wind maximum over Oklahoma is the most significant feature at 300 mb. The energy balance of the storm region is seen to change dramatically as the wind maximum forms. During much of its lifetime, the upper-level wind maximum is maintained by ageostrophic flow that produces cross-contour generation of kinetic energy and by the upward transport of midtropospheric energy. Two possible mechanisms for the ageostrophic flow are considered.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Flow Channels and the Generation of Alfvénic Turbulence Along Storm‐Time Inner Magnetospheric Field‐Lines

Abstract A feature of Earth's storm‐time magnetosphere outside the plasmapause is the occurrence of broad‐spectrum Alfvénic fluctuations. In this letter observations from the Van Allen Probes are compared with 3‐D fluid‐kinetic simulations of an evolving convective flow channel to investigate the mechanisms generating the observed spectrum. It is shown how narrow channels of fast convection are unstable to the Kelvin‐Helmholtz instability which on closed field‐lines initiates a cascade to small scales. Sustained driving of the flow combined with reflection from the topside ionosphere leads to the generation of an intensified spectrum of electromagnetic structures having similar spectral and morphological characteristics to those observed. This process couples enhanced magnetospheric convection to kinetic scale electromagnetic fluctuations that drive particle transport, scattering and energization through the outer radiation belt and ring current during geomagnetic storms.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multiple Environmental Influences on the Lightning of Cold-Based Continental Convection. Part II: Sensitivity Tests for Its Charge Structure and Land–Ocean Contrast

In Part I, an electrification scheme was described and a simulation of an observed cold-based storm from the U.S. Great Plains was validated with electrical observations. Most charge in the storm was separated by rebounding collisions of secondary ice originating from prior graupel–snow collisions. In this Part II, sensitivity tests are performed with the control simulation (Part I) and influences from environmental factors (aerosols, temperature, moisture, and shear) on lightning are elucidated. Environmental factors [e.g., convective available potential energy (CAPE)] controlling updraft speed are salient. When ascent is reduced by 30% and 70%, flashes become 70% fewer and disappear, respectively; faster ascent promotes positive cloud-to-ground (+CGs) flashes. Since cloud base is too cold (1°C) for coalescence, cloud condensation nucleus aerosol concentrations do not influence the lightning appreciably. The electrical response to varying concentrations of active ice nuclei is limited by most ice particles being secondary and less sensitive—a natural “buffer.” Imposing a maritime sounding suggests that the land–sea contrast in lightning for such storms is due to the vertical structure of environmental temperature and humidity. Weak CAPE, and both entrainment and condensate weight from a low cloud base, suppress ascent and charging. Maritime thermodynamic conditions reduce simulated flash rates by two orders of magnitude. Reducing aerosol loadings from continental to maritime only slightly reinforces this suppression. Last, a conceptual model is provided for how any simulated storm is either normal because graupel/hail is mostly positively charged or else is inverted/anomalous because graupel/hail is mostly negatively charged, with environmental factors controlling the charging. Impacts from microphysical processes, including three processes of secondary ice production, on lightning are analyzed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Severe Weather Prediction With Microwave All‐Sky Radiance Assimilation: The 10 August 2020 Midwest Derecho

Abstract In this study, we assimilated microwave (MW) all‐sky radiances from low‐Earth‐orbiting satellites and examined their impact on the analyses and forecasts of weather hazards associated with the 10 August 2020 Midwest derecho. Compared with the baseline that assimilated conventional surface and upper‐air observations and infrared (IR) all‐sky radiances from geostationary satellites, the addition of MW all‐sky radiances improved the analyzed and forecasted convection‐stratiform structures of the derecho. Results show that MW all‐sky radiances provided additional information, compared with IR radiances, on hydrometeors within the storm, leading to improved forecasts out to 2 hr with quantitatively more accurate surface gusts. This is the first study to assimilate MW all‐sky radiances for a severe weather event using a convection‐permitting numerical weather prediction model (our model resembles NOAA's High‐Resolution Rapid Refresh), and the results suggest promising avenues for improving severe weather forecasts worldwide in the future.

Zhang, Yunji↗

NASA NTRS2004

High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998): Water Budget - Part 2

The Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model MM5 is used to simulate Hurricane Bonnie at high resolution (2-km spacing) in order to examine budgets of water vapor, cloud condensate, and precipitation. Virtually all budget terms are derived directly from the model (except for the effects of storm motion). The water vapor budget reveals that a majority of the condensation in the eyewall occurs in convective hot towers, while outside of the eyewall most of the condensation occurs in weak updrafts, indicative of a dominance of stratiform precipitation processes. The ocean source of water vapor in the eyewall region is only a very small fraction of that transported inward in the boundary layer inflow or that condensed in the updrafts. In contrast, in the outer regions, the ocean vapor source is larger owing to the larger area, counters the drying effect of low-level subsidence, and enhances the moisture transported in toward the eyewall. In this mature storm, cloud condensate is consumed as rapidly as it is produced. Cloud water peaks at the top of the boundary layer and within the melting layer, where. cooling from melting enhances condensation. Unlike squall lines, in the hurricane, very little condensate produced in the eyewall convection is transported outward into the surrounding precipitation area. Most of the mass ejected outward is likely in the form of small snow particles that seed the outer regions and enhance stratiform precipitation development through additional growth by vapor deposition and aggregation. In addition, artificial source terms for cloud and precipitation mass associated with setting negative mixing ratios, produced as a result of numerical advection errors, to zero are described. Although small at any given point and time, the cumulative effect of these terms contributes an amount of mass equivalent to 13% of the total condensation. Thus, these terms must be accounted for to balance the model budgets and the results suggest the need for improved model numerics.

Braun, Scott A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Water Budget of a Simulated Hurricane

The Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model MM5 is used to simulate Hurricane Bonnie at high resolution (2-km spacing) in order to examine budgets of water vapor, cloud condensate, and precipitation. Virtually all budget terms are derived directly from the model (except for the effects of storm motion). The water vapor budget reveals that a majority of the condensation in the eyewall occurs in convective hot towers, while outside of the eyewall most of the condensation occurs in weaker updrafts, indicative of a larger role of stratiform precipitation processes. The ocean source of water vapor in the eyewall region is only a very small fraction of that transported inward in the boundary layer inflow or that condensed in the updrafts. In contrast, in the outer regions, the ocean vapor source is larger owing to the larger area, counters the drying effect of low-level subsidence, and enhances the moisture transported in toward the eyewall. In this mature storm, cloud condensate is consumed as rapidly as it is produced. Cloud water peaks at the top of the boundary layer and within the melting layer, where cooling from melting enhances condensation. Unlike in squall lines, in the hurricane, very little condensate produced in the eyewall convection is transported outward into the surrounding precipitation area. Most of the mass ejected outward is likely in the form of small snow particles that seed the outer regions and enhance in situ stratiform precipitation development through additional growth by vapor deposition and aggregation. We examine artificial source terms for cloud and precipitation mass associated with setting to zero negative mixing ratios that arise from numerical advection errors. Although small at any given point and time, the cumulative effect of these terms contributes an amount of mass equivalent to 13% of the total condensation and 15-20% of the precipitation. Thus, these terms must be accounted for to balance the model budgets and the results suggest the need for improved model numerics.

Braun, S.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Detection of severe thunderstorms using short interval geosynchronous satellite data

The potential and limitations of using short interval (3-7 minutes) geosynchronous, infrared data to ascertain thunderstorm intensity, and therefore indirectly detect severe thunderstorms are discussed. Thunderstorms on four case study days were analyzed over selected areas and time periods using SMS/GOES data, and derived satellite based intensity parameters were compared to severe weather reports. Young, growing thunderstorms are intensity rated using the rate of decrease of the satellite observed cloud top minimum equivalent blackbody temperature. Since most storms cannot be observed until they penetrate through the cirrus overcast produced by previous convection, minimum cloud temperature and rate of blackbody temperature isotherm expansion are then used as intensity indicators. Results are presented and problems and limitations of the techniques and the data are examined. In addition, an analysis of cloud top height variations (as viewed by the satellite) in relation to tornado touchdown times and, in a few cases, to mesocyclone formation times is also presented.

Adler, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS2002

High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998): Microphysics Validation using TRMM Data

A simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998) has been performed using multiple grid nesting to 2 km grid spacing. The simulation is initialized with large-scale analysis fields from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasts and with a bogus vortex inserted via four-dimensional variational data assimilation. The simulation reproduces well the storm intensity, the wavenumber 1 asymmetry of the precipitation field, the occurrence of deep convective towers within the eyewall, and the presence of broad stratiform precipitation regions. Radar and microwave observations from TRMM are used to validate the simulation. Result show excessive graupel production and, to some extent, excessive precipitation production in general by the model. Additional simulations are conducted (and validated by TRMM data) to test parameters and assumptions within the microphysics parameterizations including particle size distributions, particle densities, and assumptions that impact the partitioning of precipitation mass between graupel and snow.

Starr, David OC.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Ionospheric response to the sustained high geomagnetic activity during the March '89 great storm

A simulation was conducted to model the high-latitude ionospheric to the sustaied level of high geomagnetic activity for the great magnetic storm period of March 13-14, 1989. The geomagnetic and solar activity indices and the Defense Meterological Satellite Program (DMSP) F8 and F9 satellite data for particle precipitation and high-latitude convection were used as inputs to a time-dependent ionospheric model (TDIM). The results of the TDIM were compared to both DMSP plasma density data and ground-based total electron content (TEC) measurements for the great storm period as well as with earlier storm observations. The comparisons show that the overall structure of the high-latitude ionosphere was dominated by an increased convection speed within the polar cap that led to increased ion temperatures. In turn, this enhanced the NO(+) density, raised the atomic-to-molecular ion transition height to over 300 km, decreased N(sub m)F(sub 2), increased h(sub m)F(sub 2), and in places either increased n(sub e) at 800 km or slightly decreased it. The morphology of the ionosphere under these extreme conditions was considerably different than that modeled for less distributed intervals. These differences included the character of the dayside tongue of ionization that no longer extended deep into the polar cap. Instead, as a result of the ion heating and consequent reduction in N(sub m)F(sub 2), a large polar hole occupied much of the polar region. This polar hole extended beyond the auroral oval and merged with the night sector midatitude trough. The limitaions associated with the applicability of the TDIM to the geomagnetic conditions present on March 13 and 14 are discussed. The primary limitations of the TDIM derive from the limited temporal resolution of the model input parameters and the lack of suitably dynamic thermospheric specification for the great storm conditions. These limitations leads to midlatitude ionospheric storm phases that do no follow those observed.

Sojka, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Contributions of divergent and nondivergent winds to the kinetic energy balance of a severe storm environment

Divergent and rotational components of the synoptic scale kinetic energy balance are presented using rawinsonde data at 3 and 6 h intervals from the Atmospheric Variability Experiment (AVE 4). Two intense thunderstorm complexes occurred during the period. Energy budgets are described for the entire computational region and for limited volumes that enclose and move with the convection. Although small in magnitude, the divergent wind component played an important role in the cross contour generation and horizontal flux divergence of kinetic energy. The importance of V sub D appears directly to the presence and intensity of convection within the area. Although K sub D usually comprised less than 10 percent of the total kinetic energy content within the storm environment, as much as 87 percent of the total horizontal flux divergence and 68 percent of the total cross contour generation was due to the divergent component in the upper atmosphere. Generation of kinetic energy by the divergent component appears to be a major factor in the creation of an upper level wind maximum on the poleward side of one of the complexes. A random error analysis is presented to assess confidence limits in the various energy parameters.

Browning, P. A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Energy and Mass Transport of Magnetospheric Plasmas during the November 2003 Magnetic Storm

Intensive energy and mass transport from the solar wind across the magnetosphere boundary is a trigger of magnetic storms. The storm on 20-21 November 2003 was elicited by a high-speed solar wind and strong southward component of interplanetary magnetic field. This storm attained a minimum Dst of -422 nT. During the storm, some of the solar wind particles enter the magnetosphere and eventually become part of the ring current. At the same time, the fierce solar wind powers strong outflow of H+ and O+ from the ionosphere, as well as from the plasmasphere. We examine the contribution of plasmas from the solar wind, ionosphere and plasmasphere to the storm-time ring current. Our simulation shows, for this particular storm, ionospheric O+ and solar wind ions are the major sources of the ring current particles. The polar wind and plasmaspheric H+ have only minor impacts. In the storm main phase, the strong penetration of solar wind electric field pushes ions from the geosynchronous orbit to L shells of 2 and below. Ring current is greatly intensified during the earthward transport and produces a large magnetic depression in the surface field. When the convection subsides, the deep penetrating ions experience strong charge exchange loss, causing rapid decay of the ring current and fast initial storm recovery. Our simulation reproduces very well the storm development indicated by the Dst index.

Fok, Mei-Chging↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Relating Lightning Flash Characteristics to Convective Structure in Tropical Cyclones

For decades, lightning has been used with some success as an indicator of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change. An increase in inner-core lightning is usually associated with TC intensification, but this is not always the case. Significant lightning outbreaks have been observed in weakening storms, and hurricanes can rapidly intensify in the total absence of inner-core lightning. These conflicting results arise because lightning production depends on convective and microphysical characteristics that can arise during both intensification and weakening phases in TCs. Recent work using flash size and energy metrics provided by the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the GOES-R series of satellites shows some promise in distinguishing between lightning outbreaks that correspond to intensification and those that correspond to weakening. If a hurricane is rapidly intensifying in the presence of inner-core lightning, the size and optical energy of the flashes generally increases as intensification proceeds. It is hypothesized that this relationship is governed by changes in the TC-scale circulation that produce enhanced upper-level outflow and large, strongly helical convective updrafts in the inner core. These changes increase the quantity and spatial extent of charged upper-level ice, which allows large intracloud flashes to occur when electric field breakdown occurs. This presentation will present objective diagnostics of convective asymmetry using azimuthal wavenumber decomposition of GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager brightness temperatures. The degree of symmetry will be related to GLM flash characteristics to better understand how changes in the symmetry of TC inner-core convection relates to flash rate, size, and energy. It will also show how the evolution of inner-core asymmetries relates to the spatial distribution and characteristics of lightning flashes in the inner core.

Patrick Duran↗

NASA NTRS2005

Lightning NO(x) Production and Its Consequences for Tropospheric Chemistry

Cloud-resolving case-study simulations of convective transport and lightning NO production have yielded results which are directly applicable to the design of lightning parameterizations for global chemical transport models. In this work we have used cloud-resolving models (the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCE) and MMS) to drive an off-line cloud-scale chemical transport model (CSCTM). The CSCTM, in conjunction with aircraft measurements of NO(x) in thunderstorms and ground-based lightning observations, has been used to constrain the amount of NO produced per flash. Cloud and chemistry simulations for several case studies of storms in different environments will be presented. Observed lightning flash rates have been incorporated into the CSCTM, and several scenarios of NO production per intracloud (IC) and per cloud-to-ground (CG) flash have been tested for each storm. The resulting NO(x) mixing ratios are compared with aircraft measurements taken within the storm (typically the anvil region) to determine the most likely NO production scenario. The range of values of NO production per flash (or per meter of lightning channel length) that have been deduced from the model will be shown and compared with values of production in the literature that have been deduced from observed NO spikes and from anvil flux calculations. Results show that on a per flash basis, IC flashes are nearly as productive of NO as CG flashes. This result simplifies the lightning parameterization for global models (ie., an algorithm for estimating the ICKG ratio is not necessary). Vertical profiles of lightning NOx mass at the end of the 3-D storm simulations have been summarized to yield suggested profiles for use in global models. Estimates of mean NO production per flash vary by a factor of three from one simulated storm to another. When combined with the global flash rate of 44 flashes per second from NASA's Optical Transient Detector (OTD) measurements, these estimates and the results from other techniques yield global NO production rates of 2-9 TgN/year. Simulations of the photochemistry over the 24 hours following a storm has been performed to determine the additional ozone production which can be attributed to lightning NO. Convective transport of HO(x), precursors leads to the generation of a HO(x), plume which substantially aids the downstream ozone production.

Pickering, Kenneth E.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Using Satellite Observations of Lightning and Precipitation to Diagnose the Behavior of Deep Convection in Tropical Cyclones Traversing the Midlatitudes

This study uses a unique combination of geostationary and low-Earth orbiting satellite-based lightning and precipitation observations, respectively, to examine the evolution of deep convection during the tropical cyclone (TC) lifecycle. The study spans the 2018-2021 Atlantic Basin hurricane seasons and is unique as it provides the first known analysis of total lightning (intra-cloud and cloud-to-ground) observed in TCs through their extratropical transition and post-tropical cyclone (PTC) phases. We consider the TC lifecycle stage, geographic location (e.g., land, coast, and ocean), shear strength, and quadrant relative to the storm motion and environmental shear vectors. Total lightning maxima are found in the forward right quadrant relative to storm motion and downshear of the TC center, consistent with previous studies using mainly cloud-to-ground lightning. Increasing environmental shear focuses the lightning maxima to the downshear right quadrant with respect to the shear vector in tropical storm phases. Vertical profiles of radar reflectivity from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission show that super electrically active convective precipitation features (>75 flashes) within the PTC phase of TCs have deeper mixed phase depths and higher reflectivity at -10°C than other phases, indicating the presence of more intense convection. Differences in the net convective behavior observed throughout TC evolution manifest in both the TC-scale frequency of lightning-producing cells and the intensity variations amongst individual convective cells. The combination of continuous lightning observations and precipitation snapshots improves our understanding of convective scale processes in TCs, especially in PTC phases, as they traverse the tropics and mid-latitudes.

Lightning↗