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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

Transformational System Concepts and Technologies for Our Future in Space

Continued constrained budgets and growing national and international interests in the commercialization and development of space requires NASA to be constantly vigilant, to be creative, and to seize every opportunity for assuring the maximum return on space infrastructure investments. Accordingly, efforts are underway to forge new and innovative approaches to transform our space systems in the future to ultimately achieve two or three or five times as much with the same resources. This bold undertaking can be achieved only through extensive cooperative efforts throughout the aerospace community and truly effective planning to pursue advanced space system design concepts and high-risk/high-leverage research and technology. Definitive implementation strategies and roadmaps containing new methodologies and revolutionary approaches must be developed to economically accommodate the continued exploration and development of space. Transformation can be realized through modular design and stepping stone development. This approach involves sustainable budget levels and multi-purpose systems development of supporting capabilities that lead to a diverse amy of sustainable future space activities. Transformational design and development requires revolutionary advances by using modular designs and a planned, stepping stone development process. A modular approach to space systems potentially offers many improvements over traditional one-of-a-kind space systems comprised of different subsystem element with little standardization in interfaces or functionality. Modular systems must be more flexible, scaleable, reconfigurable, and evolvable. Costs can be reduced through learning curve effects and economies of scale, and by enabling servicing and repair that would not otherwise be feasible. This paper briefly discusses achieving a promising approach to transforming space systems planning and evolution into a meaningful stepping stone design, development, and implementation process. The success of this well planned and orchestrated approach holds great promise for achieving innovation and revolutionary technology development for supporting future exploration and development of space.

Howell, Joe T.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Transitioning to Intel-based Linux Servers in the Payload Operations Integration Center

The MSFC Payload Operations Integration Center (POIC) is the focal point for International Space Station (ISS) payload operations. The POIC contains the facilities, hardware, software and communication interface necessary to support payload operations. ISS ground system support for processing and display of real-time spacecraft and telemetry and command data has been operational for several years. The hardware components were reaching end of life and vendor costs were increasing while ISS budgets were becoming severely constrained. Therefore it has been necessary to migrate the Unix portions of our ground systems to commodity priced Intel-based Linux servers. hardware architecture including networks, data storage, and highly available resources. This paper will concentrate on the Linux migration implementation for the software portion of our ground system. The migration began with 3.5 million lines of code running on Unix platforms with separate servers for telemetry, command, Payload information management systems, web, system control, remote server interface and databases. The Intel-based system is scheduled to be available for initial operational use by August 2004 The overall migration to Intel-based Linux servers in the control center involves changes to the This paper will address the Linux migration study approach including the proof of concept, criticality of customer buy-in and importance of beginning with POSlX compliant code. It will focus on the development approach explaining the software lifecycle. Other aspects of development will be covered including phased implementation, interim milestones and metrics measurements and reporting mechanisms. This paper will also address the testing approach covering all levels of testing including development, development integration, IV&V, user beta testing and acceptance testing. Test results including performance numbers compared with Unix servers will be included. need for a smooth transition while maintaining real-time support. An important aspect of the paper will involve challenges and lessons learned. product compatibility, implications of phasing decisions and tracking of dependencies, particularly non- software dependencies. The paper will also discuss scheduling challenges providing real-time flight support during the migration and the requirement to incorporate in the migration changes being made simultaneously for flight support. This paper will also address the deployment approach including user involvement in testing and the , This includes COTS product compatibility, implications of phasing decisions and tracking of dependencies, particularly non- software dependencies. The paper will also discuss scheduling challenges providing real-time flight support during the migration and the requirement to incorporate in the migration changes being made simultaneously for flight support.

Guillebeau, P. L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting with Constrained Regressors

The volatility of electricity price presents a challenge to market participants as their decision-making process are highly depend on the accuracy of price forecasts. However, there is growing empirical evidence of increasing price volatility and price spikes in electricity markets as a result of variable renewable energy generation, extreme weather events, and other factors. The distribution shift caused by spikes in electricity price data differentiates the forecasting tasks from other renewable energy sources. Moreover, the observations may be compromised by cyberattacks and thus not available in the testing phase. To this end, we propose a Similarity-Enhanced Electricity Decomposition Forecasting model (SEED-Forecaster) to address the missing response problem and spikes capturing in short-term electricity price forecasting. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is tested on real-world electricity price data from California Independent System Operator (CAISO). Numerical results of case studies show that the proposed SEED-Forecsater can enhance forecasting performance, particularly in capturing electricity spikes, even under conditions without regressors during testing stage.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photovoltaic Analysis and Response Support (PARS) Platform for Solar Situational Awareness and Resiliency Services

The project's primary objective is to develop a digital-twin based Photovoltaic (PV) Analysis and Response Support (PARS) platform, which aims to provide real-time situational awareness and optimal response plans. This platform is designed to enhance the performance of hybrid PV systems, making them competitive with or even superior to conventional generation resources. The PARS platform enabled the project team to develop and evaluate an extensive suite of grid support functionalities for the hybrid PV systems to enhance grid performance, across key areas including visibility, dispatchability, security, resilience, and reliability. Given the global push toward achieving 100% clean energy by 2035, there is a significant increase in the integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) throughout the energy grid. Effectively managing the inherent variability and uncertainty associated with IBRs is crucial for ensuring cost-effectiveness, reliability, and security in both the main grid and islanded microgrids. Constrained to a limited array of IEEE test systems or standard feeder models, traditional IBR modeling struggles to assimilate new field data, accurately reflect system dynamics, and adapt to the evolving energy landscape. In our project, we embraced a Digital Twin (DT) strategy for crafting the PARS platform. A digital twin acts as a precise virtual counterpart of a physical system, built on historical data and continuously honed with real-time insights. This enables the high-fidelity DT to accurately mirror current system operations and forecast future scenarios. Consequently, the PARS platform becomes an ideal environment for testing and refining monitoring, control, power, and energy management algorithms designed to boost hybrid PV system performance. The defining feature of the PARS platform, distinguishing it from other advanced simulation tools, is its exceptional adaptability. This is achieved by employing actual network topologies and utilizing real-time field data for fine-tuning and calibration, ensuring a close emulation of real-world conditions. The project deliverables include: 1) High-fidelity IBR models and tools for real-time parameterization, utilizing real-time field measurements to refine IBR models for enhanced accuracy and performance; 2) Grid-forming and Grid-following capabilities to deliver resilience services, including blackstart, voltage and frequency support, cold-load pick-up, power reserves, and three-phase load balancing across grid-connected and microgrid settings; 3) Machine learning-based forecasting tools and methods for generating synthetic data and topologies, creating diverse and realistic simulation environments for evaluating varied operational scenarios; 4) Advanced microgrid power and energy management algorithms for optimizing the integration and operation of PV, storage, and demand response resources within both feeder and community scales. The power grid data sets are provided by four utility companies in North Carolina and the New York Power Administration. Acting as industry advisors, our industry partners communicated stakeholder needs and regulatory standards to the research teams, aiding technology transfer by incorporating the developed methodologies into their daily operations. This collaboration ensures that the PARS platform, functioning as a power system digital twin, enhances our understanding of IBR dynamic behaviors and enables the development and evaluation of IBR control functions that match or exceed the capabilities of conventional synchronous generators.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2005

Human Factors in Space Flight

After forty years of experience with human space flight (Table 1), the current emphasis is on the design of space vehicles, habitats, and missions to ensure mission success. What lessons have we learned that will affect the design of spacecraft for future space exploration, leading up to exploring Mars? This chapter addresses this issue in four sections: Anthropometry and Biomechanics; Environmental Factors; Habitability and Architecture; and Crew Personal Sustenance. This introductory section introduces factors unique to space flight. A unique consideration for design of a habitable volume in a space vehicle is the lack of gravity during a space flight, referred to as microgravity. This affects all aspects of life, and drives special features in the habitat, equipment, tools, and procedures. The difference in gravity during a space mission requires designing for posture and motion differences. In Earth s gravity, or even with partial gravity, orientation is not a variable because the direction in which gravity acts defines up and down. In a microgravity environment the working position is arbitrary; there is no gravity cue. Orientation is defined primarily through visual cues. The orientation within a particular crew station or work area is referred to as local vertical, and should be consistent within a module to increase crew productivity. Equipment was intentionally arranged in various orientations in one module on Skylab to assess the efficiency in use of space versus the effects of inconsistent layout. The effects of that arrangement were confusion on entering the module, time spent in re-orientation, and conflicts in crew space requirements when multiple crew members were in the module. Design of a space vehicle is constrained by the three major mission drivers: mass, volume and power. Each of these factors drives the cost of a mission. Mass and volume determine the size of the launch vehicle directly; they can limit consumables such as air, water, and propellant; and they impact crew size and the types of activities the crew performs. Power is a limiting factor for a space vehicle. All environmental features (e.g., atmosphere, temperature, lighting) require power to maintain them. Power can be generated from batteries, from fuel cells, or from solar panels. Each of these sources requires lifting mass and volume from Earth, driving mission cost. All engineering decisions directly impact the design for habitation design and usage. For instance, if fuel cells are used they produce water, which is used for drinking and food preparation. If a different power source is used water has to be carried and stored on the vehicle which then directly impacts the food system choice as well as the launch weight of the vehicle.

Woolford, Barbara J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Experiences with Testing the Largest Ground System NASA Has Ever Built

In the 1980s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) embarked upon a major Earth-focused program called Mission to Planet Earth. The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) was selected to manage and develop a key component - the Earth Observing System (EOS). The EOS consisted of four major missions designed to monitor the Earth. The missions included 4 spacecraft. Terra (launched December 1999), Aqua (launched May 2002), ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite, launched January 2003), and Aura (scheduled for launch January 2004). The purpose of these missions was to provide support for NASA s long-term research effort for determining how human-induced and natural changes affect our global environment. The EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS), a globally distributed, large-scale scientific system, was built to support EOS. Its primary function is to capture, collect, process, and distribute the most voluminous set of remotely sensed scientific data to date estimated to be 350 Gbytes per day. The EOSDIS is composed of a diverse set of elements with functional capabilities that require the implementation of a complex set of computers, high-speed networks, mission-unique equipment, and associated Information Technology (IT) software along with mission-specific software. All missions are constrained by schedule, budget, and staffing resources, and rigorous testing has been shown to be critical to the success of each mission. This paper addresses the challenges associated with the planning, test definition. resource scheduling, execution, and discrepancy reporting involved in the mission readiness testing of a ground system on the scale of EOSDIS. The size and complexity of the mission systems supporting the Aqua flight operations, for example, combined with the limited resources available, prompted the project to challenge the prevailing testing culture. The resulting success of the Aqua Mission Readiness Testing (MRT) program was due in no small measure to re-structuring the traditional programmatic and technical approach to a more efficient and robust program. Programmatically, it meant gaining the endorsement, commitment, and cooperation of the numerous subsystem element managers and other stakeholder organizations. Technically, it required an MRT program that was agile, could rapidly adapt to requirements changes, and was flexible in its overall approach. Furthermore, this paper addresses the following questions: 1. What are the key ingredients (e.g., test tools, organization) needed to conduct a successful MRT program? 2. What distinguishes EOS MRT from the traditional system testing approach? 3. Where should the focus of testing be since it is infeasible to test every element or subsystem? 4. How can MRT be applied effectively to other systems or missions? To provide answers to these questions, this paper relies heavily on real-life, hands-on experiences ("lessons learned") gained during mission readiness testing of the Terra ground system and, most recently, the Aqua and ICESat missions. Moreover, this paper explores how lessons learned were turned into lessons applied for the upcoming Aura mission. Although derived from the EOS missions, MRT techniques and strategies can be applied to enhance the testing of other missions.

Lehtonen, Ken↗
DOE OSTI2024

Super Resolving Unrolled Neural Networks for Remote Sensing

In remote sensing systems, the capabilities of the system are constrained by the complex interactions between size, weight, and power (SWAP) of potential designs. In electro-optical (EO) systems, examples of these critical parameters include the system’s sensitivity and resolution. Those parameters can be increased by ever larger optical apertures and focal planes but at the cost of more SWAP. Multi-image super resolution (MISR) techniques allow resolution to be enhanced via computation rather than more sophisticated optical hardware. These algorithms combine multiple images together into a single, higher resolution image, trading temporal resolution and computation for spatial resolution. Fielded MISR techniques, such as Drizzle, can require several hundred images to create a single super resolved image, implying reduced temporal resolution, increased data acquisition load, and limiting mission applications. Iterative techniques, such as model-based image reconstruction and compressive sensing, have been shown to create super resolved images using fewer images than Drizzle. They do this by posing an optimization problem that balances accuracy between a highly accurate physical model and an image model. In the case of super resolution, the physical model is defined by the relation between low resolution input images and the desired high resolution output image. The image model encodes some assumptions about the super resolved image. These assumptions are meant to suppress reconstruction artifacts that arise due to deterministic physical model error, stochastic measurement noise, and potential undersampling. In practice, the performance of iterative methods are limited by imaging models compatible with optimization. Deep learning-based methods can effectively learn image models of arbitrary complexity, but lack the theoretical explainability and robustness of iterative techniques. Consensus equilibrium (CE) generalizes the iterative techniques beyond optimization, enabling blackbox algorithms such as traditional and neural image denoisers to be used as the image model. CE-based approaches retain much of the explainability and robustness of iterative techniques while allowing the expressiveness of machine learning image models to be used. Additionally, by unrolling iterations of CE with an embedded image denoiser, the image denoiser can be further trained and specialized to the specific application with potentially higher quality reconstructions. Under this project, we demonstrated the feasibility of training an unrolled neural network based upon CE. While we didn’t train one, we showed that the CE process is differentiable and its gradient can be tractably computed. We also explored the usage of a variants of CE akin to generative neural works. Most importantly, we applied the CE framework to a number of problems including non-blind deconvolution, upsampling, single-image super resolution, MISR, event-based sensing, and saturated deconvolution. Our MISR prototype creates high quality reconstructions with an order of magnitude fewer images than previous approaches and, critically, produces these reconstructions fast enough for practical usage.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design Optimization of a Criticality Experiment for the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment Facility

Neutronics simulations of Molten Chloride Fast Reactors have quantifiable biases that arise from nuclear data, modeling choices, or numerical methods. The multiphysics nature of molten salt reactors makes it challenging to disentangle neutronics modeling biases from biases originating from other physical phenomena. In comparison to a mock-up reactor, criticality experiments can specifically assess the neutronics modeling bias while limiting multiphysics effects. The criticality experiment must be neutronically representative of the full-scale reactor to be valuable. Here, in this paper, we describe the design of a criticality experiment to validate only the neutronics of TerraPower’s Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) and its criticality safety upset scenarios. The proposed experiment uses different chlorine-containing materials to maximize its similarity to the MCRE. The design process uses a constrained Bayesian optimization algorithm to investigate different objective functions that use covariance information for 35 Cl nuclear data. The experiments could reduce the nuclear data–induced uncertainty in k eff of the MCRE from 2161 to 886 pcm. They would also increase the upper subcritical limit of the MCRE criticality safety upset scenario from 0.94101 to 0.94476 when using the WHISPER analysis framework.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Optimal Sparse Sensor Placement to Aggregate a Network of Digital Twins for Nuclear Subsystems

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) require continuous monitoring of various systems, structures, and components to ensure safe and efficient operations. The critical safety testing of new fuel compositions and the analysis of the effects of power transients on core temperatures can be achieved through modeling and simulations. They capture the dynamics of the physical phenomenon associated with failure modes and facilitate the creation of digital twins (DTs). Accurate reconstruction of fields of interest (e.g., temperature, pressure, velocity) from sensor measurements is crucial to establish a two-way communication between physical experiments and models. Sensor placement is highly constrained in most nuclear subsystems due to challenging operating conditions and inherent spatial limitations. This study develops optimized data-driven sensor placements for full-field reconstruction within reactor and steam generator subsystems of NPPs. Optimized constrained sensors reconstruct field of interest within a tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel irradiation experiment, a lumped parameter model of a nuclear fuel test rod and a steam generator. The optimization procedure leverages reduced-order models of flow physics to provide a highly accurate full-field reconstruction of responses of interest, noise-induced uncertainty quantification and physically feasible sensor locations. Accurate sensor-based reconstructions establish a foundation for the digital twinning of subsystems, culminating in a comprehensive DT aggregate of an NPP.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

WM26 Paper Multi-Robot Collaboration for Hazardous Environments

Hazardous nuclear and industrial facilities are rarely designed for robots. Work in these domains demand precise manipulation and robust mobility in cluttered, constrained spaces where off-the-shelf platforms struggle and “one-size-fits-all” machines become costly and complex. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is developing an autonomous, multi-robot inspection system that coordinates task-specific platforms rather than relying on a single omni-tool robot. An electric truck serves as a power and compute hub for a custom manipulator co-developed with Florida International University (FIU), a commercial mini crawler, a pan–tilt–zoom camera, and a Nexxis Argus LiDAR mapping system. Working in concert, these robots generate spatial, radiation, and temperature maps of the pit environments at the Hanford Waste Tank Farms. These systems will capture visual records and environmental telemetry to allow for analysis post inspection. The system architecture uses Robot Operating System 2 (ROS 2) for publish/subscribe integration, NVIDIA Isaac Sim and Unity for simulation and visualization, and algorithms such as NVBlox to fuse data into unified 3D overlays. This robot-agnostic approach reduces operator burden by enabling autonomy across heterogeneous platforms and lets each robot be used where it is strongest. Having autonomous functions means operators don’t have to fully control multiple different components. The ease of use could allow for more widespread adoption of advanced robotics at waste management sites that see continued use. By coordinating simpler, purpose-built mechanisms, the approach lowers design and manufacturing complexity, reduces capital risk in contaminated settings, and improves controllability for complex inspection and manipulation tasks. We present the architecture, early results, and lessons learned from building and deploying this coordinated multi-robot system, with the goal of accelerating safe, cost-effective adoption of advanced robotics at waste-management sites.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Densely Connected G-invariant Deep Neural Networks with Signed Permutation Representations

We introduce and investigate, for finite groups G, G-invariant deep neural network (GDNN) architectures with ReLU activation that are densely connected- i.e., include all possible skip connections. In contrast to other G-invariant architectures in the literature, the preactivations of theG-DNNs presented here are able to transform by signed permutation representations (signed perm-reps) of G. Moreover, the individual layers of the G-DNNs are not required to be G-equivariant; instead, the preactivations are constrained to be G-equivariant functions of the network input in a way that couples weights across all layers. The result is a richer family of G-invariant architectures never seen previously. We derive an efficient implementation of G-DNNs after a reparameterization of weights, as well as necessary and sufficient conditions for an architecture to be "admissible"- i.e., nondegenerate and inequivalent to smaller architectures. We include code that allows a user to build a G-DNN interactively layer-by-layer, with the final architecture guaranteed to be admissible. We show that there are far more admissible G-DNN architectures than those accessible with the "concatenated ReLU" activation function from the literature. Finally, we apply G-DNNs to two example problems--(1) multiplication in --1, 1} (with theoretical guarantees) and (2) 3D object classification--finding that the inclusion of signed perm-reps significantly boosts predictive performance compared to baselines with only ordinary (i.e., unsigned) perm-reps.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data driven drift correction for complex optical systems

To exploit the thousand-fold increase in spectral brightness of modern light sources, increasingly intricate experiments are being conducted that demand extremely precise beam trajectory. Maintaining the optimal trajectory over several hours of an experiment with the needed precision necessitates active drift control. Here, we outline time varying Bayesian optimization (TVBO) as a data driven approach for robust drift correction, and illustrate its application for a split and delay optical system composed of six crystals and twelve input dimensions. Using numerical simulations, we exhibit the application of TVBO for linear drift, non-smooth temporal drift as well as constrained TVBO for multi-objective control settings, representing real-life operating conditions. This approach can be easily adapted to other X-ray beam conditioning and guidance systems, including multi-crystal monochromators and grazing-incidence mirrors, to maintain sub-micrometer and nanoradian beam stability over the course of an experiment spanning several hours.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2022

Agent-Based Modeling for the Circular Economy: Lessons Learned From Three Case Studies

The circular economy (CE) aims at decoupling human activities from resource use, creating wealth in the process. Recently, many scholars have questioned the link between increased circularity and sustainability, resulting in many methodological approaches being developed for that purpose. This presentation summarizes the insights gained from the application of agent-based modeling (ABM) to study the techno-economic and social conditions promoting circularity and sustainability of three technologies: photovoltaic (PV) modules, hard disk drives (HDDs), and wind blades. Four main categories of agents are defined in the ABM: asset owners, service providers (e.g., refurbishers), recyclers, and manufacturers. Two main CE strategies are represented: lifetime extension (through repair or reuse) and recycling. The developed models start by projecting installed capacities and end-of-life (EOL) quantities. Then the theory of planned behavior - a social psychology model explaining behavior adoption based on attitude, peer influence, and costs - is used to model the asset owners' EOL decision (i.e., landfill, recycle or extend the lifetime of the asset). Then, the quantities of assets flowing to the recycler and service provider agents and quantities of materials flowing to manufacturers are computed. Recyclers' economies of scale are dynamically modeled, and the value generated by the CE strategies for the recyclers, service providers, and manufacturers is computed within the model. When data are available, avoided greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the CE strategies adoption are calculated exogenously from the ABM simulations. Results show that with improved used PV modules warranties, the reuse CE strategy adoption increases from 1% to 23% between 2020 and 2050. Similarly, improved standards could enhance HDDs end-users trust in data-wiping - a prerequisite to reuse - leading to a 3-fold increase in the reuse rate and avoid about 5 million tons of CO2 eq by 2050. Regarding wind blades, 5-15 years lifetime extension could reduce EOL blade quantities by 13%. High costs and logistic issues prevent blades from being recycled in greater quantities. One insight from the case studies is the necessity to have mature secondary markets for reuse to be a viable option. Interestingly, PV reuse is limited by the willingness of PV owners to purchase used modules (on the demand side), while HDDs reuse is constrained by the lack of trust toward data-wiping (limiting the supply of used HDDs). The six limits of the CE concepts presented by Korhonen et al. (2018) are finally used to interpret the results. The HDD case study is an exemplary lock-in, where the first accepted practice (shredding) retains most of the market. The PV results illustrate the technical limitation to reuse, as the growing demand cannot be supplied entirely with used PV modules. The wind case study shows the relevance of clearly defining physical flows - what type of waste should wind blades be considered, how should they be transported and landfilled? - a crucial consideration that also applies to PV modules. Finally, the three case studies highlight the relevance of studying a technology's technical, economic, and market material efficiency potentials altogether and the potential benefit of coupling ABM to life cycle assessment.

agent-based modeling↗
NASA NTRS2008

Understanding Black Hole X-ray Binaries: The Case of Cygnus X-1

Black Hole X-ray Binaries are known to display distinct emission states that differ in their X-ray spectra, their X-ray timing properties (on times scales less than 1 s) and their radio emission. In recent years monitoring observations, specially with NASA's Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE), have provided us with detailed empirical modeling of the phenomenology of the different states as well as a unification scheme of the long term evolution of black holes, transient and persistent, in terms of these states. Observations of the persistent High Mass X-ray Binary (HMXB) Cygnus X-l have been at the forefront of learning about black hole states since its optical identification through a state transition in 1973. In this talk I will present in depth studies of several different aspects of the accretion process in this system. The main data base for these studies is an ongoing RXTE and Ryle radio telescope bi-weekly monitoring campaign that started in 1997. I will discuss high-resolution timing results, especially power spectra, which first gave rise to the Lorentzian description now widely used for black hole and neutron star binaries, and time lags, which we found to be especially well suited to identify state transitions. The evolution of spectral, timing, and radio parameters over years will be shown, including the rms-flux relation and the observation of a clearly correlated radio/x-ray flare. We also observed Cygnus X-1 with INTEGRAL, which allowed us to extend timing and spectral studies to higher energies, with XMM, which provided strong constraints on the parameters of the 6.4 keV iron fluorescence line, and with Chandra, which provided the most in depth study to date of the stellar wind in this system. Models based on the physical conditions in the accretion region are still mainly concentrated on the one or other of the observational areas but they are expanding: as an example I will review results from a jet model for the quantitative description of the radio through X-ray spectra. I will conclude with an outlook on a truly multi-instrument observing campaign of Cygnus X-1 that was performed in 2008 April in order to better constrain the jet models mentioned above (and provide a unique data set for cross-calibration).

Pottschmidt, Katja↗
NASA NTRS1994

What we have learned about Mars from SNC meteorites

The SNC meteorites are thought to be igneous martian rocks, based on their young crystallization ages and a close match between the composition of gases implanted in them during shock and the atmosphere of Mars. A related meteorite, ALH84001, may be older and thus may represent ancient martian crust. These petrologically diverse basalts and ultramafic rocks are mostly cumulates, but their parent magmas share geochemical and radiogenic isotopic characteristics that suggest they may have formed by remelting the same mantle source region at different times. Information and inferences about martian geology drawn from these samples include the following: Planetary differentiation occured early at approximately 4.5 GA, probably concurrently with accretion. The martian mantle contains different abundances of moderately volatile and siderophile elements and is more Fe-rich than that of the Earth, which has implications for its mineralogy, density, and origin. The estimated core composition has a S abundance near the threshold value for inner core solidification. The former presence of a core dynamo may be suggested by remanent magnetization in Shergottite-Nakhlite-Chassignite (SNC) meteorites, although these rocks may have been magnetized during shock. The mineralogy of martian surface units, inferred from reflectance spectra, matches that of basaltic shergottites, but SNC lithologies thought to have crystallized in the subsurface are not presently recognized. The rheological properties of martian magmas are more accurately derived form these metorites than from observations of martian flow morphology, although the sampled range of magma compositions islimited. Estimates of planetary water abundance and the amount of outgassed water based on these meteorites are contridictory but overlap estimates based on geological observations and atmospheric measurements. Stable isotope measurements indicate that the martian hydrosphere experienced only limited exchange with the lithosphere, but it is in isotopic equilibrium with the atmosphere and has been since 1.3 Ga. The isotopically heavy atmosphere/hydrosphere composition deduced from these rocks reflects a loss process more severe than current atmospheric evolution models, and the occurence of carbonates in SNC meteorites suggest that they, rather than scapolite or hydrous carbonates, are the major crustal sink for CO2. Weathering products in SNC meteorites support the idea of limited alteration of the lithosphere by small volumes of saline, CO2-bearing water. Atmospheric composition and evolution are further constrained by noble gases in these meteorites, although Xe and Kr isotopes suggest different origins for the atmosphere. Planetary ejection of these rocks has promoted an advance in the understanding of impact physics, which has been accomplished by a model involving spallation during large cratering events. Ejection of all the SNC meteorites (except ALH84001) in one or two events may provide a plausible solution to most constraints imposed by chronology, geochemistry, and cosmic ray exposure, although problems remain with this scenario; ALH84001 may represent older martian crust sampled during a separate impact.

Mcsween, Harry Y., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Potential and Challenges of an Uncertainty Quantification Method for Long Short–Term Memory Models for Soil Moisture Predictions

Recently, recurrent deep networks have shown promise to harness newly available satellite–sensed data for long–term soil moisture projections. However, to be useful in forecasting, deep networks must also provide uncertainty estimates. Here we evaluated Monte Carlo dropout with an input–dependent data noise term (MCD+N), an efficient uncertainty estimation framework originally developed in computer vision, for hydrologic time series predictions. MCD+N simultaneously estimates a heteroscedastic input–dependent data noise term (a trained error model attributable to observational noise) and a network weight uncertainty term (attributable to insufficiently constrained model parameters). Although MCD+N has appealing features, many heuristic approximations were employed during its derivation, and rigorous evaluations and evidence of its asserted capability to detect dissimilarity were lacking. To address this, we provided an in–depth evaluation of the scheme's potential and limitations. We showed that for reproducing soil moisture dynamics recorded by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, MCD+N indeed gave a good estimate of predictive error, provided that we tuned a hyperparameter and used a representative training data set. The input–dependent term responded strongly to observational noise, while the model term clearly acted as a detector for physiographic dissimilarity from the training data, behaving as intended. However, when the training and test data were characteristically different, the input–dependent term could be misled, undermining its reliability. Additionally, due to the data–driven nature of the model, data noise also influences network weight uncertainty, and therefore the two uncertainty terms are correlated. Altogether, this approach has promise, but care is needed to interpret the results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feature Engineering and Ensemble Methods for Imbalanced ICS Intrusion Detection: Pipeline Audit and Constrained Evaluation

Industries are becoming increasingly connected and are more vulnerable to cyberattacks due to the widened attack surface. Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are among the most critical sectors that malicious actors can target, as such attacks can cause significant operational disruption and physical damage. It is imperative to detect such attacks as early as possible. This paper evaluates constraint-conditioned optimistic performance estimates for traditional ML models in ICS intrusion detection (i.e., estimates obtained under contiguous, non-shuffled temporal evaluation without test-set alteration, but with pre-split feature engineering that may introduce temporal leakage, due to dataset constraints). Our findings are threefold. First, we quantify how iterative feature engineering affects tree-based ensemble performance and examine how pipeline decisions (split strategy, sampling scope, and cleaning policy) can inflate or reduce reported IDS results under constraint-bound evaluation. Second, we compare intrinsic class-imbalance handling across ensemble models. Third, under our current pipeline constraints (including pre-split feature engineering), CatBoost achieves the best performance on Water Storage Tank (accuracy: 0.9831, class-1 F1: 0.9682), while Light- GBM achieves the best performance on Gas Pipeline (accuracy: 0.9618, class-1 F1: 0.9086).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Field Guide to Corralling the Chaos: A Conceptual Framework for Using Models to Guide Opportunistic Field Studies of Natural Disturbances

Watersheds regulate biogeochemical processes and provide ecosystem services to human societies, but disturbances can fundamentally alter these processes across space and time. Determining when and where to sample to capture disturbance impacts in watersheds remains a central challenge. Manipulation studies and long-term monitoring are often constrained by scope, and opportunistic studies often lack pre-disturbance data needed to statistically determine disturbance impacts. We identify a persistent knowledge gap: the absence of a clear, transferable framework to guide opportunistic disturbance research where pre-disturbance data collection is not a feasible option. To address this gap, we present a conceptual framework that intentionally integrates modeling and empirical observation in an iterative, stepwise model–experiment workflow. We demonstrate its application through two contrasting case studies: wildfire impacts on headwater streams using a pre-disturbance preparedness approach, and saltwater flooding impacts on coastal forests using an ‘ex-post-facto’ approach. From these applications, we assess strengths, limitations, and the critical role of team science for transferability across disturbance types and study designs. Broadly, this framework offers a scalable path towards more rigorous, timely, and actionable disturbance science that can inform watershed management, hazard risk reduction, and ecosystem resilience.

Coastal Biogeochemistry↗