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At least 631 records · Page 35

Bayesian Conavigation: Dynamic Designing of the Material Digital Twins via Active Learning

Scientific advancement is universally based on the dynamic interplay between theoretical insights, modeling, and experimental discoveries. However, this feedback loop is often slow, including delayed community interactions and the gradual integration of experimental data into theoretical frameworks. This challenge is particularly exacerbated in domains dealing with high-dimensional object spaces, such as molecules and complex microstructures. Hence, the integration of theory within automated and autonomous experimental setups, or theory in the loop-automated experiment, is emerging as a crucial objective for accelerating scientific research. The critical aspect is to use not only theory but also on-the-fly theory updates during the experiment. Furthermore, we introduce a method for integrating theory into the loop through Bayesian conavigation of theoretical model space and experimentation. Our approach leverages the concurrent development of surrogate models for both simulation and experimental domains at the rates determined by latencies and costs of experiments and computation, alongside the adjustment of control parameters within theoretical models to minimize epistemic uncertainty over the experimental object spaces. This methodology facilitates the creation of digital twins of material structures, encompassing both the surrogate model of behavior that includes the correlative part and the theoretical model itself. While being demonstrated here within the context of functional responses in ferroelectric materials, our approach holds promise for broader applications, such as the exploration of optical properties in nanoclusters, microstructure-dependent properties in complex materials, and properties of molecular systems.

Microscopy↗

Real time monitoring of COVID-19 intervention effectiveness through contact tracing data

Communities worldwide have used vaccines and facemasks to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. When an individual opts to vaccinate or wear a mask, they may lower their own risk of becoming infected as well as the risk that they pose to others while infected. The first benefit–reducing susceptibility–has been established across multiple studies, while the second–reducing infectivity–is less well understood. Using a new statistical method, we estimate the efficacy of vaccines and facemasks at reducing both types of risks from contact tracing data collected in an urban setting. We find that vaccination reduced the risk of onward transmission by 40.7% [95% CI 25.8–53.2%] during the Delta wave and 31.0% [95% CI 19.4–40.9%] during the Omicron wave and that mask wearing reduced the risk of infection by 64.2% [95% CI 5.8–77.3%] during the Omicron wave. By harnessing commonly-collected contact tracing data, the approach can broadly provide timely and actionable estimates of intervention efficacy against a rapidly evolving pathogen.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Energize: An Interactive Evaluation Tool for Engaging the General Public with Energy Decision Making - Final Report

The public has an ever-increasing interest in the economic, environmental, and social impacts of global energy production. To support informed decision making, the scientific community has a responsibility to communicate reliable and straight-forward information to the general public, in an engaging way, regarding energy systems and how choices made at different stages of an energy technology life cycle can impact the cost, amount of materials used, and waste produced. Our objective is to enhance public engagement via an interactive electrical energy game (Energ!ze) through which players interact with one another in their quest to develop an electrical energy portfolio that optimizes economic (e.g., company profit), environmental (e.g., reduced CO 2 emissions), and social (e.g., public opinion) impacts. The design and development of Energ!ze was an iterative process involving an interdisciplinary team of engineers, discipline-based scientists, computer scientists, and education experts. The development objectives were two-fold: (1) Accurate and quantifiable modeling of electrical energy systems and (2) Engaging and interactive user interface within the construct of the game narrative. The major game mechanics in the current playable Energ!ze version focus on economic metrics, and the database is scaffolded to add environmental and social metrics for future versions. This report details the outcome of the funding period (Section 2 and 3) and describes the development process, along with recommendations for future development (Section 4).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A National Infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence on the Grid (NI4AI) (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Electric utilities have traditionally taken a very pragmatic yet myopic approach with grid sensors and the resulting collected data. Sensors are purchased and deployed to solve a specific, known problem that has risen to sufficient awareness as to justify the effort of deploying sensors and the needed capital investment. This sensor data flows into proprietary software packages with limited functionality intended only to address the initial problem. This approach aligns with the financial incentives of the utility to deploy capital into fixed hardware assets for which the corporations earn a rate of return. This mentality stands in stark contrast to the big data revolution that started nearly 25 years ago with the rise of Google. In this worldview, data is a fundamental business asset; successful organizations collect, store, explore, merge, and exploit as much data as possible to not only solve problems well understood today but also to tackle new problems that will inevitably rise tomorrow. The ARPA-E Open Innovation 2018 project entitled A National Infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence on the Grid or NI4AI for short was designed to demonstrate this alternative paradigm for using data. To do this, the project was composed of three key thrust areas. The first major component deployed a variety of high-frequency grid sensors and captured terabytes of both wide-scale and localized grid measurements, generating high-value datasets for grid research and algorithm development. The second aspect made available PingThings’ PredictiveGridTM, a horizontally scalable, cloud-based data management and AI platform built for time series data to explore and exploit the collected data. Finally, the project fostered a diverse and open research community composed of experts from numerous fields through focused educational content, code sharing, and data science competitions. Shifting away from “single use” sensors and closed data silos within electric utilities is a major benefit to the public at large. This legacy approach to data is incredibly (1) capital intensive (new sensors must be deployed for each new problem and problems tend to arise continuously) and (2) painfully slow (new problems must be identified first and then new sensors must be deployed to collect data to begin to address the issue). The transition to a carbon neutral grid requires a massive transformation of the existing grid infrastructure and will continue to challenge the legacy grid in unforeseen ways. The only way to make the energy transition cost effective is for utilities to abandon this dated data paradigm and adopt more contemporary approaches. NI4AI has shown that it is technically possible and economically feasible to ingest, explore, and exploit grid data collected from even very high frequency sensing, such as continuous point on wave sensors collecting measurements 10,000 times a second. In fact, the PredictiveGrid platform used is commercially available and deployed at several utilities in the United States. Project accomplishments were numerous and included (1) making available a state of the art time series platform to the community, (2) collecting over 520 streams of time series data from grid sensors totaling over 1 trillion grid measurements, and (3) developing and nurturing a community within the industry focused on the use of data to create value for utilities and, ultimately, end consumers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A time-varying vulnerability index for COVID-19 in New Mexico, USA using generalized propensity scores

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted systemic inequities in the United States and resulted in a larger burden of negative social outcomes for marginalized communities. New Mexico, a state in the southwestern US, has a unique population with a large racial minority population and a high rate of poverty that may make communities more vulnerable to negative social outcomes from COVID-19. To identify which communities may be at the highest relative risk, we created a county-level vulnerability index. After the first COVID-19 case was reported in New Mexico on March 11, 2020, we fit a generalized propensity score model that incorporates sociodemographic factors to predict county-level viral exposure and thus, the generic risk to negative social outcomes such as unemployment or mental health impacts. We used four static sociodemographic covariates important for the state of New Mexico—population, poverty, household size, and minority population—and weekly cumulative case counts to iteratively run our model each week and normalize the exposure score to create a time-varying vulnerability index. We found the relative vulnerability between counties varied in the first eight weeks from the initial COVID-19 case before stabilizing. This framework for creating a location-specific vulnerability index in response to an ongoing disaster may be used as a quick, deployable metric to inform health policy decisions such as allocating state resources to the county level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Centralized Interactive Phenomics Resource: an integrated online phenomics knowledgebase for health data users

Development of clinical phenotypes from electronic health records (EHRs) can be resource intensive. Several phenotype libraries have been created to facilitate reuse of definitions. However, these platforms vary in target audience and utility. Here, we describe the development of the Centralized Interactive Phenomics Resource (CIPHER) knowledgebase, a comprehensive public-facing phenotype library, which aims to facilitate clinical and health services research. The platform was designed to collect and catalog EHR-based computable phenotype algorithms from any healthcare system, scale metadata management, facilitate phenotype discovery, and allow for integration of tools and user workflows. Phenomics experts were engaged in the development and testing of the site. The knowledgebase stores phenotype metadata using the CIPHER standard, and definitions are accessible through complex searching. Phenotypes are contributed to the knowledgebase via webform, allowing metadata validation. Data visualization tools linking to the knowledgebase enhance user interaction with content and accelerate phenotype development. The CIPHER knowledgebase was developed in the largest healthcare system in the United States and piloted with external partners. The design of the CIPHER website supports a variety of front-end tools and features to facilitate phenotype development and reuse. Health data users are encouraged to contribute their algorithms to the knowledgebase for wider dissemination to the research community, and to use the platform as a springboard for phenotyping. CIPHER is a public resource for all health data users available at https://phenomics.va.ornl.gov/ which facilitates phenotype reuse, development, and dissemination of phenotyping knowledge.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Marine aerosol generation experiments in the High Arctic during summertime

The rapidly warming Arctic has transitioned to thinner sea ice which fractures, producing leads. Few studies have investigated Arctic sea spray aerosol (SSA) produced from open ocean, leads, and melt ponds, which vary in salinity and organic and microbial community composition. A marine aerosol reference tank was deployed aboard an icebreaker to the Arctic Ocean during August–September 2018 to study SSA generated from locally collected surface waters. Aerosol generation experiments were carried out using water collected from the marginal ice zone, a human-made hole in sea ice near the North Pole, and both lead and melt pond water during an ice floe drift period. Salinity, chlorophyll a, organic carbon, nitrogen, and microbial community composition were measured. Eukaryotic plankton and bacterial abundance were elevated in experimental water from the marginal ice zone, but the relative contributions from major eukaryotic taxonomic groups varied little across the experiments. The chemical composition of individual SSA particles was analyzed using Raman microspectroscopy and computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. Individual sea salt aerosol, primary organic aerosol, and mineral dust particles were observed. Sea salt aerosol constituted 44–95% of individual submicrometer and 68–100% of supermicrometer particles, by number, generated during each experiment. Carbon was detected in 85%, by number, of the individual sea salt particles, with visible organic coatings. Carbohydrates were detected in 72% of particles, by number, with smaller contributions from long-chain fatty acids (13%) and siliceous material (15%). SSA generated from melt pond water contained only long-chain fatty acids and siliceous material. Quantification of the ice-nucleating activity showed that locally produced SSA may define the High Arctic background ice-nucleating particle population, but cannot account for the peak atmospheric concentrations observed. As the Arctic warms, the increasing SSA emissions have a complex dependence on changing biological and physical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Generation and evaluation of synthetic patient data

Background: Machine learning (ML) has made a significant impact in medicine and cancer research; however, its impact in these areas has been undeniably slower and more limited than in other application domains. A major reason for this has been the lack of availability of patient data to the broader ML research community, in large part due to patient privacy protection concerns. High-quality, realistic, synthetic datasets can be leveraged to accelerate methodological developments in medicine. By and large, medical data is high dimensional and often categorical. These characteristics pose multiple modeling challenges. Methods: In this paper, we evaluate three classes of synthetic data generation approaches; probabilistic models, classification-based imputation models, and generative adversarial neural networks. Metrics for evaluating the quality of the generated synthetic datasets are presented and discussed. Results: While the results and discussions are broadly applicable to medical data, for demonstration purposes we generate synthetic datasets for cancer based on the publicly available cancer registry data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program. Specifically, our cohort consists of breast, respiratory, and non-solid cancer cases diagnosed between 2010 and 2015, which includes over 360,000 individual cases. Conclusions: We discuss the trade-offs of the different methods and metrics, providing guidance on considerations for the generation and usage of medical synthetic data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating chromatin conformation information in a self-supervised learning model improves metagenome binning

Metagenome binning is a key step, downstream of metagenome assembly, to group scaffolds by their genome of origin. Although accurate binning has been achieved on datasets containing multiple samples from the same community, the completeness of binning is often low in datasets with a small number of samples due to a lack of robust species co-abundance information. In this study, we exploited the chromatin conformation information obtained from Hi-C sequencing and developed a new reference-independent algorithm, Metagenome Binning with Abundance and Tetra-nucleotide frequencies—Long Range (metaBAT-LR), to improve the binning completeness of these datasets. This self-supervised algorithm builds a model from a set of high-quality genome bins to predict scaffold pairs that are likely to be derived from the same genome. Then, it applies these predictions to merge incomplete genome bins, as well as recruit unbinned scaffolds. We validated metaBAT-LR’s ability to bin-merge and recruit scaffolds on both synthetic and real-world metagenome datasets of varying complexity. Benchmarking against similar software tools suggests that metaBAT-LR uncovers unique bins that were missed by all other methods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning bridges local static structure with multiple properties in metallic glasses

A long-standing challenge in the metallic glass (MG) community has been how to quantitatively gauge the influence of the intricate local packing environment on the response (such as the propensity for atomic rearrangement) of the atomic configuration to external stimuli. Here we establish this structure–property relation by representing the complex amorphous structure using a single, flexibility-orientated structural quantity. This structural flexibility (SF) couples to a bona fide structural representation, the pair distribution function (PDF) of individual atoms, through a weighting function that reflects what matters in the static atomic configuration to dynamic responses. Machine learning is used, employing microscopic flexibility volume as the supervisory signal, to establish via direct regression an optimized weighting vector, which is proven robust for all quenching rates, deformation conditions, and different compositions in a given (e.g., Cu x Zr 100-x ) alloy system. Additionally, the SF is evaluated solely from the particle positions (PDF), for any structure variation, from the atomic scale up to sample average. Strong correlations are demonstrated between SF and a broad range of properties, including vibrational, diffusional, as well as elastic and plastic relaxation responses.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Facility Location Optimization Model for COVID-19 Resources

In response to anticipated resource shortfalls related to the treatment and testing of COVID-19, many communities are planning to build additional facilities to increase capacity. These facilities include field hospitals, testing centers, mobile manufacturing units, and distribution centers. In many cases, these facilities are intended to be temporary and are designed to meet an immediate need. When deciding where to place new facilities many factors need to be considered, including the feasibility of potential locations, existing resource availability, anticipated demand, and accessibility between patients and the new facility. In this project, a facility location optimization model was developed to integrate these key pieces of information to help decision makers identify the best place, or places, to build a facility to meet anticipated resource demands. The facility location optimization model uses the location of existing resources and the anticipated resource demand at each location to minimize the distance a patient must travel to get to the resource they need. The optimization formulation is presented below. The model was designed to operate at the county scale, where patients are grouped per county. This assumption can be modified to integrate other scales or include individual patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties

Abstract. Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures, and some have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is therefore expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in its amount and timing remain largely unquantified. In particular, there is substantial uncertainty in future basal melt rates arising from multi-model differences in thermal forcing and how melt rates depend on that thermal forcing. To facilitate uncertainty quantification in sea level rise projections, we build, validate, and demonstrate projections from a computationally efficient statistical emulator of a high-resolution (4 km) Antarctic ice sheet model, the Community Ice Sheet Model version 2.1. The emulator is trained to a large (500-member) ensemble of 200-year-long 4 km resolution transient ice sheet simulations, whereby regional basal melt rates are perturbed by idealized (yet physically informed) trajectories. The main advantage of our emulation approach is that by sampling a wide range of possible basal melt trajectories, the emulator can be used to (1) produce probabilistic sea level rise projections over much larger Monte Carlo ensembles than are possible by direct numerical simulation alone, thereby providing better statistical characterization of uncertainties, and (2) predict the simulated ice sheet response under differing assumptions about basal melt characteristics as new oceanographic studies are published, without having to run additional numerical ice sheet simulations. As a proof of concept, we propagate uncertainties about future basal melt rate trajectories, derived from regional ocean models, to generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years into the future.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Uncertainty quantification of machine learning models to improve streamflow prediction under changing climate and environmental conditions

Machine learning (ML) models, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks in particular, have demonstrated remarkable performance in streamflow prediction and are increasingly being used by the hydrological research community. However, most of these applications do not include uncertainty quantification (UQ). ML models are data driven and can suffer from large extrapolation errors when applied to changing climate/environmental conditions. UQ is required to quantify the influence of data noises on model predictions and avoid overconfident projections in extrapolation. In this work, we integrate a novel UQ method, called PI3NN, with LSTM networks for streamflow prediction. PI3NN calculates Prediction Intervals by training 3 Neural Networks. It can precisely quantify the predictive uncertainty caused by the data noise and identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data in a non-stationary condition to avoid overconfident predictions. We apply the PI3NN-LSTM method in the snow-dominant East River Watershed in the western US and in the rain-driven Walker Branch Watershed in the southeastern US. Results indicate that for the prediction data which have similar features as the training data, PI3NN precisely quantifies the predictive uncertainty with the desired confidence level; and for the OOD data where the LSTM network fails to make accurate predictions, PI3NN produces a reasonably large uncertainty indicating that the results are not trustworthy and should avoid overconfidence. PI3NN is computationally efficient, robust in performance, and generalizable to various network structures and data with no distributional assumptions. It can be broadly applied in ML-based hydrological simulations for credible prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ORBIT-2 Dataset for Scaling Exascale Vision Foundation Models for Weather and Climate Downscaling

This dataset release corresponds to the work conducted in ORBIT-2: Scaling Exascale Vision Foundation Models for Weather and Climate Downscaling, where large-scale AI methods were applied to improve climate and weather resolution. The collection integrates four widely used, publicly available datasets: ERA5, PRISM, DAYMET, and IMERG. To prepare the data for ORBIT-2 model training and evaluation, we applied a preprocessing pipeline that generates paired low-resolution and high-resolution samples, enabling supervised downscaling experiments. The transformation from coarse to fine scales was performed using bilinear regridding, consistent with the procedures described in WeatherBench2, a community benchmark for weather and climate AI models. This dataset supports the development and evaluation of foundation models designed for weather and climate downscaling at exascale. Additional details on methodology and applications can be found in Wang et al., ORBIT-2 (arXiv:2505.04802, 2025).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sequence Design of Random Heteropolymers as Protein Mimics

Random heteropolymers (RHPs) have been computationally designed and experimentally shown to recapitulate protein-like phase behavior and function. However, unlike proteins, RHP sequences are only statistically defined and cannot be sequenced. Recent developments in reversible-deactivation radical polymerization allowed simulated polymer sequences based on the well-established Mayo–Lewis equation to more accurately reflect ground-truth sequences that are experimentally synthesized. This led to opportunities to perform bioinformatics-inspired analysis on simulated sequences to guide the design, synthesis, and interpretation of RHPs. We compared batches on the order of 10000 simulated RHP sequences that vary by synthetically controllable and measurable RHP characteristics such as chemical heterogeneity and average degree of polymerization. Our analysis spans across 3 levels: segments along a single chain, sequences within a batch, and batch-averaged statistics. We discuss simulator fidelity and highlight the importance of robust segment definition. Examples are presented that demonstrate the use of simulated sequence analysis for in-silico iterative design to mimic protein hydrophobic/hydrophilic segment distributions in RHPs and compare RHP and protein sequence segments to explain experimental results of RHPs that mimic protein function. To facilitate the community use of this workflow, the simulator and analysis modules have been made available through an open source toolkit, the RHPapp.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Hidden Processes During Seasonal Isolation of a High-Altitude Watershed

Biogeochemical processes capable of altering global carbon systems occur frequently in Earth’s Critical Zone–the area spanning from vegetation canopy to saturated bedrock–yet many of these phenomena are difficult to detect. Observation of these processes is limited by the seasonal inaccessibility of remote ecosystems, such as those in mountainous, snow- and ice-dominated areas. This isolation leads to a distinct gap in biogeochemical knowledge that ultimately affects the accuracy and confidence with which these ecosystems can be computationally modeled for the purpose of projecting change under different climate scenarios. To examine a high-altitude, headwater ecosystem’s role in methanogenesis, sulfate reduction, and groundwater-surface water exchange, water samples were continuously collected from the river and hyporheic zones (HZ) during winter isolation in the East River (ER), CO watershed. Measurements of continuously collected ER surface water revealed up to 50 μM levels of dissolved methane in July through September, while samples from 12 cm deep in the hyporheic zone at the same location showed a spring to early summer peak in methane with a strong biogenic signature (<65 μM, δ13C-CH4, -60.76‰) before declining. Continuously collected δ 18 O-H 2 O and δ 2 H-H 2 O isotopes from the water column exhibited similar patterns to discrete measurements, while samples 12 cm deep in the hyporheic zone experienced distinct fluctuations in δ 18 O-H 2 O, alluding to significant groundwater interactions. Continuously collected microbial communities in the river in the late fall and early winter revealed diverse populations that reflect the taxonomic composition of ecologically similar river systems, including taxa indicative of methane cycling in this system. These measurements captured several biogeochemical components of the high-altitude watershed in response to seasonality, strengthening our understanding of these systems during the winter months.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pore Structures in Detritusphere of Soils Under Switchgrass and Restored Prairie Vegetation Community

Root detritusphere, that is, the soil in the vicinity of decomposing root residues, plays an important role in soil microbial activity and C sequestration. Pore structure (size distributions and connectivity of soil pores) in the detritusphere serves as a major driver for these processes and, in turn, is influenced by the physical characteristics of both soil and roots. This study compared pore structure characteristics in the root detritusphere of soils of contrasting texture and mineralogy subjected to > 6 years of contrasting vegetation: monoculture switchgrass and polyculture prairie systems. Soil samples were collected from five experimental sites in the US Midwest representing three soil types. Soil texture and mineralogy were measured using a hydrometer and x-ray powder diffraction, respectively. The intact cores were scanned with x-ray computed micro-tomography to identify visible soil pores, biopores, and particulate organic matter (POM). We specifically focused on pore structure within the detritusphere around the POM of root origin. Results showed that the detritusphere of coarser textured soils, characterized by high sand and quartz contents, had lower porosity in the vicinity of POM compared with finer textured soils. POM vicinities in finer textured soils had high proportions of large (> 300 μm diameter) pores, and their pores were better connected than in the coarser soils. Lower porosity in the outer (> 1 mm) parts of the detritusphere of switchgrass than of prairie suggested soil compaction by roots, with the effect especially pronounced in the coarser soils. Here, the results demonstrated that soil texture and mineralogy played a major, while vegetation played a more modest, role in defining the pore structure in the root detritusphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

VA EDH Data Curation Documentation (FY22-Q3, Rev.2)

The health and well-being of the Nation’s men and women who have served in uniform is the highest priority for the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). VA is committed to providing timely access to high-quality, recovery-oriented, evidence-based mental health care that anticipates and responds to Veterans’ needs and supports the reintegration of returning Service members into their communities. VA is working to eliminate suicide among all Veterans by developing and implementing innovative suicide prevention approaches and resources. Health outcomes, such as suicide are typically modeled as a function of genetics and environment, where environment refers to factors beyond medical, e.g., air quality, access to transportation and food, homelessness status, etc. Mental health outcomes for each individual are considered to be associated with multiple stressors that fall under a variety of categories socioeconomic, economic, physical environment. Understanding the relationships between these stressors, covariates and health outcomes, requires curated, standardized data that can be input into the VA’s Recovery Engagement and Coordination for Health - Veterans Enhanced Treatment (REACH VET) or other health outcomes model. Environmental Determinants of Health (EDH) as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) is clean air, stable climate, adequate water, sanitation and hygiene, safe use of chemicals, protection from radiation, healthy and safe workplaces, sound agricultural practices, health-supportive cities and built environments, and a preserved nature are all prerequisites for good health.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗