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NASA NTRS2016

Streamlining the Design Tradespace for Earth Imaging Constellations

Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSMs) are gaining momentum in their application to Earth Observation (EO) missions owing to their unique ability to increase observation sampling in spatial, spectral, angular and temporal dimensions simultaneously. DSM design includes a much larger number of variables than its monolithic counterpart, therefore, Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) has been often used for preliminary mission concept designs, to understand the trade-offs and interdependencies among the variables. MBSE models are complex because the various objectives a DSM is expected to achieve are almost always conflicting, non-linear and rarely analytical. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is developing a pre-Phase A tool called "Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations" (TAT-C) to initiate constellation mission design. The tool will allow users to explore the tradespace between various performance, cost and risk metrics (as a function of their science mission) and select Pareto optimal architectures that meet their requirements. This paper focuses on the tradespace search and how it can be streamlined by combining physical rules, as well as well-designed orbit and coverage computations, thus yielding significant speed-ups. Two use cases are shown as representative examples of the utility of TAT-C generated trades, and results are preliminarily validated against AGI's Systems Tool Kit.

Science Data Processing↗

NASA NTRS2022

Uncertainty Models for the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method of Uncertainty Quantification; Analysis

There is some level of uncertainty in every finite element model (FEM), which flows to a level of uncertainty in predicted results. The purpose of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is to provide statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. This is distinct from model updating, which attempts to modify models to improve their accuracy. UQ does not improve the accuracy of models, but accepts that the models are inherently inaccurate and attempts to quantify the impact of that inaccuracy on predicted results. Previously, an alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method, was applied to Space Launch System (SLS) Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components to predict system-level statistics for launch vehicle attitude control transfer functions and core stage section loads due to buffet. The HPV method combines a parametric variation of the HCB fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method that randomly varies the HCB mass and stiffness matrices as Wishart random matrix distributions using random matrix theory (RMT). Alternatively, the most common method for modeling uncertainty in the structural dynamics community is a parametric approach, which varies physical parameters in the model. However, there are several disadvantages associated with the parametric method. Determining a reduced set of parameters that have a significant impact on the system response can be time consuming, and the selected parameter probability distributions are rarely reliably known. Therefore, in practice, the parameters are surrogates for the actual errors, and the link to parameter uncertainty is unknown. Another major drawback is that the uncertainty that can be represented is limited to the form of the nominal FEM. It is the experience of the authors that based on numerous aerospace programs, almost all FEM errors are in form rather than parameter values. This hypothesis is supported by the observation of the authors that it is almost never possible to ‘tune’ a FEM to match modal test results by only modifying model parameters. Model-form uncertainty cannot be directly represented by FEM input parameters nor included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using RMT, where a probability distribution is developed for the matrix ensemble of interest. The major advantage of the NPV method is that it covers errors in model form. The HPV method anchors uncertainty at the HCB component level to component modal test results by matching the HCB and test modes based on mode descriptions or other methods, and then applying differing levels of frequency variation. The specific variations depend on the confidence to which a component FEM has been validated through modal testing. The NPV method is layered on the frequency variation to match modal test self-orthogonality and cross-orthogonality (XO) results. Once the component uncertainty models are identified, they are assembled, and the uncertainty is propagated to the system level using a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis approach that generates statistics for system-level predictions This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The second example is an application to a component that is design specific to the SLS. Based on this work and other assessments, the HPV method provides another tool to the toolset used for complex system UQ analysis. From experience gathered to date using the HPV method, additional design specific applications must be investigated to provide further confidence in the validity of the HPV method of UQ analysis.

Uncertainty quantification↗

DOE OSTI2020

Neural networks for modeling and control of particle accelerators

Charged particle accelerators support a wide variety of scientific, industrial, and medical applications. They range in scale and complexity from systems with just a few components for beam acceleration and manipulation, to large scientific user facilities that span many kilometers and have hundreds-to-thousands of individually-controllable components. Specific operational requirements must be met by adjusting the many controllable variables of the accelerator. Meeting these requirements can be challenging, both in terms of the ability to achieve specific beam quality metrics in a reliable fashion and in terms of the time needed to set up and maintain the optimal operating conditions. One avenue toward addressing this challenge is to incorporate techniques from the fields of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) into the way particle accelerators are modeled and controlled. While many promising approaches within AI/ML could be used for particle accelerators, this dissertation focuses on approaches based on neural networks. Neural networks are particularly well-suited to modeling, control, and diagnostic analysis of nonlinear systems, as well as systems with large parameter spaces. They are also very appealing for their ability to process high-dimensional data types, such as images and time series (both of which are ubiquitous in particle accelerators). In this work, key studies that demonstrated the potential utility of modern neural network-based approaches to modeling and control of particle accelerators are presented. The context for this work is important: at the start of this work in 2012, there was little interest in AI/ML in the particle accelerator community, and many of the advances in neural networks and deep learning that enabled its present success had not yet been made at that time. As such, this work was both an exploration of possible application areas and a generator of proof-of-concept demonstrations in these areas.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NASA NTRS1991

The integrated manual and automatic control of complex flight systems

Research dealt with the general area of optimal flight control synthesis for manned flight vehicles. The work was generic; no specific vehicle was the focus of study. However, the class of vehicles generally considered were those for which high authority, multivariable control systems might be considered, for the purpose of stabilization and the achievement of optimal handling characteristics. Within this scope, the topics of study included several optimal control synthesis techniques, control-theoretic modeling of the human operator in flight control tasks, and the development of possible handling qualities metrics and/or measures of merit. Basic contributions were made in all these topics, including human operator (pilot) models for multi-loop tasks, optimal output feedback flight control synthesis techniques; experimental validations of the methods developed, and fundamental modeling studies of the air-to-air tracking and flared landing tasks.

Schmidt, David K.↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-throughput validation of phase formability and simulation accuracy of Cantor alloys

High-throughput methods enable accelerated discovery of novel materials in complex systems such as high-entropy alloys, which exhibit intricate phase stability across vast compositional spaces. Computational approaches, including Density Functional Theory (DFT) and calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD), facilitate screening of phase formability as a function of composition and temperature. However, the integration of computational predictions with experimental validation remains challenging in high-throughput studies. In this work, we introduce a quantitative confidence metric to assess the agreement between predictions and experimental observations, providing a quantitative measure of the confidence of machine learning models trained on either DFT or CALPHAD input in accounting for experimental evidence. The experimental dataset was generated via high-throughput in-situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction on compositionally varied FeNiMnCr alloy libraries, heated from room temperature to ~1000 °C. Agreement between the observed and predicted phases was evaluated using either temperature-independent phase classification or a model that incorporates a temperature-dependent probability of phase formation. This integrated approach demonstrates where strong overall agreement between computation and experiment exists, while also identifying key discrepancies, particularly in FCC/BCC predictions at Mn-rich regions to inform future model refinement.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

A holey cavity for single-transducer 3D ultrasound imaging with physical optimization

Within the compressive sensing (CS) framework, one effective way to increase the likelihood of successful signal reconstruction is to employ random processes in the construction of the sensing matrix. This work presents a 3D holey cavity, with diverse frequency modes, to spectrally code, that is, randomize, the ultrasound wave fields. The simulated results show that the use of such a cavity enables imaging simple or complex targets, such as spheres or the letter E, by only a single transceiver—something that is not possible without the use of a coding structure like the cavity. The effect of noise on imaging results and the size of the targets on the first-order Born approximation (BA) are also investigated. Moreover, this study attempts to optimize the cavity, based on a single numerical metric, such as the sum of singular values (SSV) or mutual coherence (MC). Yet, it will be shown that neither of these metrics can consistently compare the norm-one imaging performance between two cavities of different materials or hole sizes. This leaves finding a quantitative metric for these kinds of optimizations an open problem.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Co-Active Subspace Methods for the Joint Analysis of Adjacent Computer Models

Active subspace (AS) methods are a valuable tool for understanding the relationship between the inputs and outputs of a Physics simulation. In this article, an elegant generalization of the traditional ASM is developed to assess the co-activity of two computer models. This generalization, which we refer to as a Co-Active Subspace (Co-AS) Method, allows for the joint analysis of two or more computer models allowing for thorough exploration of the alignment (or non-alignment) of the respective gradient spaces. We define co-active directions, co-sensitivity indices, and a scalar “concordance” metric (and complementary “discordance” pseudo-metric) and we demonstrate that these are powerful tools for understanding the behavior of a class of computer models, especially when used to supplement traditional AS analysis. Details for efficient estimation of the Co-AS and an accompanying R package (concordance) are provided. Practical application is demonstrated through analyzing a set of simulated rate stick experiments for PBX 9501, a high explosive, offering insights into complex model dynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Electron Tomography Capabilities for Shale Imaging

Despite the advantageous resolution of electron tomography (ET), reconstruction of three-dimensional (3D) images from multiple two-dimensional (2D) projections presents several challenges, including small signal-to-noise ratios, and a limited projection range. This study evaluates the capabilities of ET for thin sections of shale, a complex nanoporous medium. A numerical phantom with 1.24 nm pixel size is constructed based on the tomographic reconstruction of a Barnett shale. A dataset of 2D projection images is numerically generated from the 3D phantom and studied over a range of conditions. First, common reconstruction techniques are used to reconstruct the shale structure. The reconstruction uncertainty is quantified by comparing overall values of storage and transport metrics, as well as the misclassification of pore voxels compared to the phantom. We then select the most robust reconstruction technique and we vary the acquisition conditions to quantify the effect of artifacts. We find a strong agreement for large pores over the different acquisition workflows, while a wider variability exists for nanometer-scale features. Furthermore, the limited projection range and reconstruction are identified as the main experimental bottlenecks, thereby suggesting that sample thinning, advanced holders, and advanced reconstruction algorithms offer opportunities for improvement.

3D scanning transmission electron microscopy↗

DOE OSTI2021

Key predictors of soil organic matter vulnerability to mineralization differ with depth at a continental scale

Abstract Soil organic matter (SOM) is the largest terrestrial pool of organic carbon, and potential carbon-climate feedbacks involving SOM decomposition could exacerbate anthropogenic climate change. However, our understanding of the controls on SOM mineralization is still incomplete, and as such, our ability to predict carbon-climate feedbacks is limited. To improve our understanding of controls on SOM decomposition, A and upper B horizon soil samples from 26 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites spanning the conterminous U.S. were incubated for 52 weeks under conditions representing site-specific mean summer temperature and sample-specific field capacity (−33 kPa) water potential. Cumulative carbon dioxide respired was periodically measured and normalized by soil organic C content to calculate cumulative specific respiration (CSR), a metric of SOM vulnerability to mineralization. The Boruta algorithm, a feature selection algorithm, was used to select important predictors of CSR from 159 variables. A diverse suite of predictors was selected (12 for A horizons, 7 for B horizons) with predictors falling into three categories corresponding to SOM chemistry, reactive Fe and Al phases, and site moisture availability. The relationship between SOM chemistry predictors and CSR was complex, while sites that had greater concentrations of reactive Fe and Al phases or were wetter had lower CSR. Only three predictors were selected for both horizon types, suggesting dominant controls on SOM decomposition differ by horizon. Our findings contribute to the emerging consensus that a broad array of controls regulates SOM decomposition at large scales and highlight the need to consider changing controls with depth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

PVwindow (Photovoltaic Window Simulator) [SWR-22-01]

PVwindow simulates photovoltaic window properties by allowing the user build stacks of thin film materials that compose the window layers. The only needed inputs are the complex refractive indices and thicknesses of the materials. The software will simulate the optical transmission, front reflection, and back reflection of the stack using the transfer matrix method. Properties specific to PV window optics such as visible transmittance and color are also calculated. The optics code extracts the number of absorbed photons in the PV absorber layer and solves the single diode equation to yield theoretical photovoltaic metrics such as power conversion efficiency, fill factor, open circuit voltage, and short circuit current of the PV window when illuminated at an arbitrary angle or from either side of the stack. The software tool ultimately allows researchers to design photovoltaic windows and simulate their properties. The software also exports files that can be read into LBL Window software or into the EnergyPlus and Open Studio building energy modeling software to determine larger scale energy impacts of PV window integration.

Wheeler, Lance↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrodynamic Test Requirements Process Improvements

Hydrodynamic testing at Los Alamos National Laboratory would benefit from a process improvement for the requirements process. Cameo was used as a digital solution for requirements management to allow Lead Engineers to track requirements more effectively. This was identified as a process improvement throughout this Capstone project. This report includes a project proposal, business case, literature review, methodology, project plan, data analysis, decision-making report, financial analysis report, discussion, and conclusion. Initially, this project focused on figuring out a solution for the hydrotest requirement process improvements. The scope narrowed to focus on the use of Cameo for requirement capture and management. During this Capstone, four tests had digital models produced for requirements management in Cameo. The initial model was the baseline, with core requirements used across the tests. Commonalities in tests were used and the core requirements allowed for process efficiencies. In the data analysis, it was seen that overall, the implementation of using Cameo for requirements resulted in a decreasing trend for both schedule and normalized cost. Tests have different complexity levels which is also a factor in how long the requirements process will take. Additional data is needed to continue analyzing process improvements. Through decisionmaking and financial analysis, the recommendation was to use Cameo for requirements process improvement. Multiple experts provided feedback for requirements that were then captured within models. Numerous tangible and intangible benefits were identified with this process improvement. For return on investment, the metric of success was schedule reduction, which was overall seen. Four tests were analyzed, so future analysis will be needed. There is also not a great financial risk because the main cost would be purchasing more licenses. Individuals must generate requirements whether using this software or not. Overall, training is needed to help improve the skillsets of Lead Engineers but is already being supported on a regular frequency. A desktop guide was started associated with explaining the process, however, it is a work in progress. The team plans on adding additional information in the digital models to help status when requirements are met using verification methods and artifacts. From working on this project an improved understanding of Cameo and requirements was the result. There are future opportunities to extend the usage for requirements management and progress will continue after this project.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Are long-term climate projections useful for on-farm adaptation decisions?

The current literature on climate services for farmers predominantly focuses on seasonal forecasts, with an assumption that longer-term climate projections may not be suitable for informing farming decisions. In this paper, we explore whether certain types of long-term climate projections may be useful for some specific types of farming decisions. Through interviews with almond tree crop farmers and farm advisors in California, we examine how farmers perceive the utility and accuracy levels of long-term climate projections and identify the types of projections that they may find useful. The interviews revealed that farmers often perceive long-term climate projections as an extension of weather forecasts, which can lead to their initial skepticism of the utility of such information. However, we also found that when farmers were presented with long-term trends or shifts in crop-specific agroclimatic metrics (such as chill hours or summer heat), they immediately perceived these as valuable for their decision-making. Hence, the manner in which long-term projections are framed, presented, and discussed with farmers can heavily influence their perception of the potential utility of such projections. The iterative conversations as part of the exploratory interview questions, served as a tool for “ joint construction of meaning” of complex and ambiguous terms such as “long-term climate projections,” “long-term decisions” and “uncertainty.” This in-turn supported a joint identification (and understanding) of the types of information that can potentially be useful for on-farm adaptive decisions, where the farmer and the interviewer both improvise and iterate to find the best types of projections that fit specific decision-contexts. Overall, this research identifies both the types of long-term climate information that farmers may consider useful, and the engagement processes that are able to effectively elicit farmers' long-term information needs.

Jagannathan, Kripa↗

NASA NTRS1994

Real-time robot deliberation by compilation and monitoring of anytime algorithms

Anytime algorithms are algorithms whose quality of results improves gradually as computation time increases. Certainty, accuracy, and specificity are metrics useful in anytime algorighm construction. It is widely accepted that a successful robotic system must trade off between decision quality and the computational resources used to produce it. Anytime algorithms were designed to offer such a trade off. A model of compilation and monitoring mechanisms needed to build robots that can efficiently control their deliberation time is presented. This approach simplifies the design and implementation of complex intelligent robots, mechanizes the composition and monitoring processes, and provides independent real time robotic systems that automatically adjust resource allocation to yield optimum performance.

Zilberstein, Shlomo↗

DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Sampling of Complex Interdependent and Multiplex Networks

Efficient sampling of interdependent and multiplex infrastructure networks is critical for effectively applying failure and recovery algorithms in real-world settings, as well as to generate property-preserving reduced-order graph-based ensembles that address topological uncertainties. In this paper, we first explore the performance, i.e. the success in preserving graph properties, of graph sampling algorithms for interdependent and multiplex networks with synthetic and real-world graphs. We simulate sampling algorithms under different parameter settings. These settings include probabilistic graph generators, coupling patterns, and various performance metrics. Our results show that while Random Node and Random Walk sampling algorithms perform best for interdependent networks, Random Edge and Forest Fire sampling algorithms perform best for multiplex networks. Second, we propose and implement a novel similarity-based sampling algorithm for multiplex networks that samples only log(N) number of layers of an N-layer multiplex network while yielding computational savings with performance guarantees. Experimental results show that similarity sampling outperforms complete sampling of all layers while decreasing performance costs from a linear scale to a logarithmic one. Our results also indicate that similarity-based sampling outperforms complete sampling and random selection in nearly all scenarios when tested with real-world data.

Subasi, Omer↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantum Optimization: Potential, Challenges, and the Path Forward

Recent advances in quantum computers are demonstrating the ability to solve problems at a scale beyond brute force classical simulation. As such, a widespread interest in quantum algorithms has developed in many areas, with optimization being one of the most pronounced domains. Across computer science and physics, there are a number of algorithmic approaches, often with little linkage. This is further complicated by the fragmented nature of the field of mathematical optimization, where major classes of optimization problems, such as combinatorial optimization, convex optimization, non-convex optimization, and stochastic extensions, have devoted communities. With these aspects in mind, this work draws on multiple approaches to study quantum optimization. Provably exact versus heuristic settings are first explained using computational complexity theory — highlighting where quantum advantage is possible in each context. Then, the core building blocks for quantum optimization algorithms are outlined to subsequently define prominent problem classes and identify key open questions that, if answered, will advance the field. The effects of scaling relevant problems on noisy quantum devices are also outlined in detail, alongside meaningful benchmarking problems. We underscore the importance of benchmarking by proposing clear metrics to conduct appropriate comparisons with classical optimization techniques. Lastly, we highlight two domains – finance and sustainability – as rich sources of optimization problems that could be used to benchmark, and eventually validate, the potential real-world impact of quantum optimization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Blueprint for Demonstrating Quantum Supremacy with Superconducting Qubits

Long coherence times and high fidelity control recently achieved in scalable superconducting circuits paved the way for the growing number of experimental studies of many-qubit quantum coherent phenomena in these devices. Albeit full implementation of quantum error correction and fault tolerant quantum computation remains a challenge the near term pre-error correction devices could allow new fundamental experiments despite inevitable accumulation of errors. One such open question foundational for quantum computing is achieving the so called quantum supremacy, an experimental demonstration of a computational task that takes polynomial time on the quantum computer whereas the best classical algorithm would require exponential time and/or resources. It is possible to formulate such a task for a quantum computer consisting of less than a 100 qubits. The computational task we consider is to provide approximate samples from a non-trivial quantum distribution. This is a generalization for the case of superconducting circuits of ideas behind boson sampling protocol for quantum optics introduced by Arkhipov and Aaronson. In this presentation we discuss a proof-of-principle demonstration of such a sampling task on a 9-qubit chain of superconducting gmon qubits developed by Google. We discuss theoretical analysis of the driven evolution of the device resulting in output approximating samples from a uniform distribution in the Hilbert space, a quantum chaotic state. We analyze quantum chaotic characteristics of the output of the circuit and the time required to generate a sufficiently complex quantum distribution. We demonstrate that the classical simulation of the sampling output requires exponential resources by connecting the task of calculating the output amplitudes to the sign problem of the Quantum Monte Carlo method. We also discuss the detailed theoretical modeling required to achieve high fidelity control and calibration of the multi-qubit unitary evolution in the device. We use a novel cross-entropy statistical metric as a figure of merit to verify the output and calibrate the device controls. Finally, we demonstrate the statistics of the wave function amplitudes generated on the 9-gmon chain and verify the quantum chaotic nature of the generated quantum distribution. This verifies the implementation of the quantum supremacy protocol.

Kechedzhi, Kostyantyn↗

NASA NTRS2006

Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following the process described in Refs. 5 through 7, in terms of percentage coverage or confidence level is notionally sound compared to characterizing in terms of probabilities because the probability of the forecast being correct can only be determined using actual observations. References 5 through 7 only use the forecast data and not the observations. The method for computing the probability of detection, false alarm ratio and several forecast quality metrics (Skill Scores) using both the forecast and observation data are given in Ref. 2. This paper extends the statistical verification method in Ref. 2 to determine co-occurrence probabilities. The method consists of computing the probability that a severe weather cell (grid location) is detected in the observation data in the neighborhood of the severe weather cell in the forecast data. Probabilities of occurrence at the grid location and in its neighborhood with higher severity, and with lower severity in the observation data compared to that in the forecast data are examined. The method proposed in Refs. 5 through 7 is used for computing the probability that a certain number of cells in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in the forecast data are seen as severe weather cells in the observation data. Finally, the probability of existence of gaps in the observation data in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in forecast data is computed. Gaps are defined as openings between severe weather cells through which an aircraft can safely fly to its intended destination. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section II summarizes the statistical verification method described in Ref. 2. The extension of this method for computing the co-occurrence probabilities in discussed in Section HI. Numerical examples using NCWF forecast data and NCWD observation data are presented in Section III to elucidate the characteristics of the co-occurrence probabilities. This section also discusses the procedure for computing throbabilities that the severity of convection in the observation data will be higher or lower in the neighborhood of grid locations compared to that indicated at the grid locations in the forecast data. The probability of coverage of neighborhood grid cells is also described via examples in this section. Section IV discusses the gap detection algorithm and presents a numerical example to illustrate the method. The locations of the detected gaps in the observation data are used along with the locations of convective weather cells in the forecast data to determine the probability of existence of gaps in the neighborhood of these cells. Finally, the paper is concluded in Section V.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Large eddy simulation of wind farm performance in horizontally and vertically staggered layouts

This numerical investigation employs Large Eddy Simulation (LES) coupled with Actuator Disk Model (ADM) to evaluate wind farm layout optimization strategies. The study presents a systematic analysis of aligned, horizontal staggering, vertical staggering, and mixed (combination of horizontal and vertical) staggering configurations, aiming to establish optimal design parameters for enhanced power production. The investigation examines key performance metrics including mean velocity distributions, turbulence intensity characteristics, and power generation efficiency. Results demonstrate better performance of both horizontal and vertical staggering patterns compared to conventional aligned configurations, with horizontal staggering exhibiting notably higher power output than vertical arrangements. Our findings also suggest that mixed configurations, incorporating both horizontal and vertical staggering, can offer optimal performance characteristics. As a result, this research advances the understanding of wake interactions in complex wind farm layouts and provides design guidelines for maximizing wind farm power generation efficiency through strategic turbine positioning.

17 WIND ENERGY↗