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At least 631 records · Page 35

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4/yr (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4/yr or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4/yr or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4/yr larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4/yr larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4/yr, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30° N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4/yr lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4/yr by 8 Tg CH4/yr, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.

methane budget↗

Ares: A Coupling Methodology for Ablation Modeling

To enable modeling of complex and coupled ablation problems, a multi-physics framework is developed. A methodology for modeling shape change in coupled systems is presented. The approach taken to model gas-surface interactions and translate coupled surface phenomena to physically meaningful boundary conditions in the distinct solvers is discussed. Particular emphasis is placed on the nature of coupled boundary conditions pertaining to surface energy and mass balances as well as surface chemistry modeling. The developed methodology is used to simulate a shear test in arc-jet conditions in order to assess the validity of the coupled approach as well as the implementation of the relevant physical processes.

EDL↗

Ares: A Coupling Methodology for Ablation Modeling

To enable modeling of complex and coupled ablation problems, a multi-physics framework is developed. A methodology for modeling shape change in coupled systems is presented. The approach taken to model gas-surface interactions and translate coupled surface phenomena to physically meaningful boundary conditions in the distinct solvers is discussed. Particular emphasis is placed on the nature of coupled boundary conditions pertaining to surface energy and mass balances as well as surface chemistry modeling. The developed methodology is used to simulate a shear test in arc-jet conditions in order to assess the validity of the coupled approach as well as the implementation of the relevant physical processes.

EDL↗

THUNDER: A Titan orbiter mission concept for the New Frontiers program designed at the JPL Planetary Science Summer School

Saturn’s moon Titan is an enigmatic icy world whose surface is constantly modified by its active, Earthlike precipitation system. Here, we propose the THUNDER (Titan’s Hydrocarbons: Uncovering New Dimensions of Evolutionary pRocesses) mission concept to investigate how Titan’s surface reflects the nature of its interior and its active hydrocarbon cycle. This mission will change our understanding of Titan’s surface through three science objectives: characterizing the heat and material transport properties of Titan’s icy outer layer, tracing surface liquid storage through and across the crust, and assessing the total hydrocarbon budget through time. This New Frontiers-class mission, designed as part of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Planetary Science Summer School, responds directly to the call for a Titan orbiter in the NASA Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey 2023-2032. THUNDER’s focused geology and geophysics mission could achieve full surface mapping to complement both the Cassini-Huygens and Dragonfly missions using gravity science, radar with three operational modes, and a visible-to-infrared spectrometer. These instruments together could give us the first look at Titan as a fully connected and geologically active world , revolutionizing our understanding of icy bodies, fluvial and atmospheric processes, and habitability across geologic time. Here, we summarize goals of the science mission and engineering approaches, as well as challenges and future directions to study before THUNDER can become a viable mission concept.

mission concept↗

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Modeling Improvements for the Transition to Natural Circulation

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) is a simulation tool used to perform deterministic analyses of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactors. With its origin as SAS1A in the late 1960s, the SAS series of codes has been under continuous use and development for over fifty years and represents a critical investment in safety analysis capabilities for the U.S. Department of Energy. In recent years, SAS has undergone a number of improvements to enable improved safety analyses that meet end users’ modernized needs while complying with the current regulatory environment. Improvements made in versions 5.6 and 5.7 released within the last year include the development of anisotropic Reynolds number dependent loss coefficients throughout the core and heat transport systems, the ability to distinguish the transition friction factor from the fully developed laminar and turbulent friction factors, and timedependent direct coolant and wall heating for pipe-like elements in the heat transport systems. While it was possible to capture loss coefficients, friction factors, and heat transfer from an element to a heat sink within SAS in previous versions of the code, users were required to end the simulation and restart it to adjust the input to account for any significant changes to the values during the transient. With these improvements, users can better capture flow reversal, pump heating, and the transition from forced to natural circulation without being limited to constant orifice coefficients, constant heat sinks, or the need to restart the simulation and modify input. In order to demonstrate the application of these improvements, a loss of flow transient is simulated for the Advanced Burner Test Reactor (ABTR).

SAS4A/SASSYS-1↗

A Regional Monitoring and Visualization System for Decision Support and Disaster Management Applications for the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor and Beyond

The Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC)-a network of managed and protected areas extending from Mexico to Columbia-is a crucial initiative for the Mesoamerican region, with a central development concept of integrating conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity within the framework of sustainable economic development. The MBC is of particular importance to the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD), which is comprised of the environmental ministers from the seven Central American countries. Responsible for determining priority areas for action in the corridor, CCAD decision makers require current and accurate information, and access to the dynamic knowledge of the changes in the MBC such as deforestation hotspots, fires, and the effects of natural disasters. Currently this information is not integrated and in disparate locations throughout the region and the world. Leveraging NASA technology, satellite data, and capability, we propose to team with the World Bank and the CCAD to develop a regional monitoring and visualization system-with central nodes at the NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center and at CCAD headquarters. This system will assimilate NASA spatial datasets (e.g. MODIS, Landsat, etc.), spatial data from other sources (commercial and public-domain), and ancillary data developed in each of the seven Central American countries (soils, transportation networks, biodiversity indicator maps, etc.). The system will function as a "virtual dashboard" for monitoring the MBC and provide the critical decision support tools for CCAD decision makers. The CCAD central node will also serve as a high-tech showcase for the corridor among the international community, other decision-makers, the media, and students.

Irwin, Daniel↗

A graphical, rule based robotic interface system

The ability of a human to take control of a robotic system is essential in any use of robots in space in order to handle unforeseen changes in the robot's work environment or scheduled tasks. But in cases in which the work environment is known, a human controlling a robot's every move by remote control is both time consuming and frustrating. A system is needed in which the user can give the robotic system commands to perform tasks but need not tell the system how. To be useful, this system should be able to plan and perform the tasks faster than a telerobotic system. The interface between the user and the robot system must be natural and meaningful to the user. A high level user interface program under development at the University of Alabama, Huntsville, is described. A graphical interface is proposed in which the user selects objects to be manipulated by selecting representations of the object on projections of a 3-D model of the work environment. The user may move in the work environment by changing the viewpoint of the projections. The interface uses a rule based program to transform user selection of items on a graphics display of the robot's work environment into commands for the robot. The program first determines if the desired task is possible given the abilities of the robot and any constraints on the object. If the task is possible, the program determines what movements the robot needs to make to perform the task. The movements are transformed into commands for the robot. The information defining the robot, the work environment, and how objects may be moved is stored in a set of data bases accessible to the program and displayable to the user.

Mckee, James W.↗

Propulsion Physics Under the Changing Density Field Model

To grow as a space faring race, future spaceflight systems will requires new propulsion physics. Specifically a propulsion physics model that does not require mass ejection without limiting the high thrust necessary to accelerate within or beyond our solar system and return within a normal work period or lifetime. In 2004 Khoury and Weltman produced a density dependent cosmology theory they called Chameleon Cosmology, as at its nature, it is hidden within known physics. This theory represents a scalar field within and about an object, even in the vacuum. Whereby, these scalar fields can be viewed as vacuum energy fields with definable densities that permeate all matter; having implications to dark matter/energy with universe acceleration properties; implying a new force mechanism for propulsion physics. Using Chameleon Cosmology, the author has developed a new propulsion physics model, called the Changing Density Field (CDF) Model. This model relates to density changes in these density fields, where the density field density changes are related to the acceleration of matter within an object. These density changes in turn change how an object couples to the surrounding density fields. Whereby, thrust is achieved by causing a differential in the coupling to these density fields about an object. Since the model indicates that the density of the density field in an object can be changed by internal mass acceleration, even without exhausting mass, the CDF model implies a new propellant-less propulsion physics model

Robertson, Glen A.↗

Expectations of Future Natural Hazards in Human Adaptation to Concurrent Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin

Human adaptation to climate change is the outcome of long-term decisions continuously made and revised by local communities. Adaptation choices can be represented by economic investment models in which the often large upfront cost of adaptation is offset by the future benefits of avoiding losses due to future natural hazards. In this context, we investigate the role that expectations of future natural hazards have on adaptation in the Colorado River basin of the USA. We apply an innovative approach that quantifies the impacts of changes in concurrent climate extremes, with a focus on flooding events. By including the expectation of future natural hazards in adaptation models, we examine how public policies can focus on this component to support local community adaptation efforts. Findings indicate that considering the concurrent distribution of several variables makes quantification and prediction of extremes easier, more realistic, and consequently improves our capability to model human systems adaptation. Hazard expectation is a leading force in adaptation. Even without assuming increases in exposure, the Colorado River basin is expected to face harsh increases in damage from flooding events unless local communities are able to incorporate climate change and expected increases in extremes in their adaptation planning and decision making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantum electron liquid and its possible phase transition

Purely quantum electron systems exhibit intriguing correlated electronic phases by virtue of quantum fluctuations in addition to electron–electron interactions. To realize such quantum electron systems, a key ingredient is dense electrons decoupled from other degrees of freedom. Here, we report the discovery of a pure quantum electron liquid that spreads up to ~3 Å in a vacuum on the surface of an electride crystal. Its extremely high electron density and weak hybridization with buried atomic orbitals show the quantum and pure nature of the electrons, which exhibit a polarized liquid phase, as demonstrated by our spin-dependent measurement. Furthermore, upon enhancing the electron correlation strength, the dynamics of the quantum electrons change to that of a non-Fermi liquid along with an anomalous band deformation, suggestive of a transition to a hexatic liquid crystal phase. Here, our findings develop the frontier of quantum electron systems and serve as a platform for exploring correlated electronic phases in a pure fashion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

New insights into the mechanism governing the elasticity of calcium silicate hydrate gels exposed to high temperature: A molecular dynamics study

When exposed to fire, the integrity of cement-based materials is governed by thermally-induced changes in the mechanical properties of their binding phase, i.e., the calcium–silicate–hydrate (C–S–H) gel. However, the effect of temperature on the structure, density, and mechanical properties of C–S–H remains only partially known. Here, based on reactive molecular dynamics simulations, we reveal the nature of thermally-induced damage in C–S–H gels. In general, we show that, at the atomic scale, exposure to high temperature results in partial dehydration, volumetric shrinkage, disordering, and stiffening in the C–S–H grains. However, we show that the thermal response of C–S–H strongly depends on its chemical composition, wherein C–S–H systems associated with lower Ca/Si molar ratios are able to undergo higher temperatures before amorphization. Based on these results, we demonstrate that the stiffness of C–S–H gels (i.e., including porosity—as probed by nanoindentation) is governed by a competition between the stiffening of the grains and the decrease in packing density—wherein the latter eventually become predominant.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Effect of Spaceflight on the Ultrastructure of the Cerebellum

In weightlessness, astronauts and cosmonauts may experience postural illusions as well as motion sickness symptoms known as the space adaptation syndrome. Upon return to Earth, they have irregularities in posture and balance. The adaptation to microgravity and subsequent re-adaptation to Earth occurs over several days. At the cellular level, a process called neuronal plasticity may mediate this adaptation. The term plasticity refers to the flexibility and modifiability in the architecture and functions of the nervous system. In fact, plastic changes are thought to underlie not just behavioral adaptation, but also the more generalized phenomena of learning and memory. The goal of this experiment was to identify some of the structural alterations that occur in the rat brain during the sensory and motor adaptation to microgravity. One brain region where plasticity has been studied extensively is the cerebellar cortex-a structure thought to be critical for motor control, coordination, the timing of movements, and, most relevant to the present experiment, motor learning. Also, there are direct as well as indirect connections between projections from the gravity-sensing otolith organs and several subregions of the cerebellum. We tested the hypothesis that alterations in the ultrastructural (the structure within the cell) architecture of rat cerebellar cortex occur during the early period of adaptation to microgravity, as the cerebellum adapts to the absence of the usual gravitational inputs. The results show ultrastructural evidence for neuronal plasticity in the central nervous system of adult rats after 24 hours of spaceflight. Qualitative studies conducted on tissue from the cerebellar cortex (specifically, the nodulus of the cerebellum) indicate that ultrastructural signs of plasticity are present in the cerebellar zones that receive input from the gravity-sensing organs in the inner ear (the otoliths). These changes are not observed in this region in cagematched ground control animals. The specific changes include the formation of lamellar bodies, profoundly enlarged Purkinje cell mitochondria, the presence of inter-neuronal cellular protrusions in the molecular layer, and signs of degeneration in the distal dendrites of the Purkinje cells. Since these morphologic signs are not apparent in the control animals, they are not likely to be due to caging or tissue processing effects. The particular nature of the structural alterations in the nodulus, most notably the formation of lamellar bodies and the presence of degeneration, further suggests that excitotoxicity (damaging overstimulation of neurons) may play a role in the short-term neural response to spaceflight. These findings suggest a structural basis for the neuronal and synaptic plasticity accompanying the central nervous system response to altered gravity and help identify the cellular bases underlying the vestibular abnormalities experienced by astronauts during periods of adaptation and re-adaptation to different gravitational forces. Also, since the short- and long-term changes in neural structure occurring during such periods of adaptation resemble the neuronal alterations that occur in some neurologic disorders such as stroke, these findings may offer guidance in the development of strategies for rehabilitation and treatment of such disorders.

Holstein, Gay R.↗

Influence of microstructure on replacement and porosity generation during experimental dolomitization of limestones

Replacement reactions commonly alter the multiscale pore structures of rocks during fluid-rock interactions. Analysis of these processes in various model fluid-rock systems during controlled laboratory experiments provides insights into the origins of microstructures found in natural materials. This study focused on understanding the effects of initial starting material permeability and resultant differences in transport pathways on porosity and mineralogical changes during limestone dolomitization.A series of replacement experiments (32–317 days in duration) have been conducted in which 1.59 cm (5/8 in.) diameter cores of two different limestones were reacted with saturated MgCl2 solutions at 200 °C. The Texas Cream (Austin Chalk) is a high-porosity, high-permeability limestone, whereas both the porosity and permeability of the Carthage Marble (Burlington Limestone) are relatively low. Altered limestones were imaged using scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDX), Time-of-Flight Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (ToF–SIMS) and electron microprobe analysis (EMPA). A representative grain boundary of the low-porosity limestone was targeted for a focused ion beam (FIB) lift-out and characterized using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). These results were coupled with analyses of radial changes in the porosity distribution of the core derived from X-ray and neutron small- and ultra-small angle scattering ((U)SANS/(U)SAXS).The high-porosity/permeability limestone showed a four times faster bulk replacement rate than the lower-porosity/permeability material, and a different mechanism of porosity development. For the low-porosity limestone, a two-stage replacement occurred, with the reacted region of the core consisting of an inner rim in which the limestone was replaced by two calcite-dolomite solid solutions, and an outer rim in which the dolomite was replaced by magnesite. Elongated pores formed along grain boundaries at the initial limestone/dolomite reaction interface, and additional nanometer-scale porosity was formed at the secondary magnesite replacement rim. Grain boundaries were identified as preferential pathways for transport leading to dolomitization and a grain boundary diffusion rate was calculated based on microstructural characterization. In contrast, replacement in the high-porosity limestone was accompanied by porosity generation through replacement of individual grains by dolomite throughout the sample and, in longer runs, magnesite in outer parts of the core. These observations emphasize that both the mechanisms of the replacement reaction and the microstructure and chemistry of the replaced product are contingent on the initial structure of the starting material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Generative AI for Grid Operations [Slides]

In the last few years, the development and use of generative artificial intelligence (AI) and large-language models (LLMs) have changed the landscape of how AI and machine learning (ML) are being used in power systems. LLMs are built on foundational models based on large data sets that can be trained to provide information rapidly and through simple natural language prompts. Generative AI can then perform human-like tasks using ML models to identify and mimic pattens in the data sets. This presentation explores how generative AI can enhance grid operations by improving forecasts, enabling rapid contingency analyses, and offering real-time operational suggestions. By providing grid operators with valuable insights, generative AI will empower them to manage power systems more effectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

On Simulating the Formation of Structured, Crystalline Systems via Non-classical Pathways

Observations in crystal growth and assembly from recent in situ methods suggest alternative, non-classical crystallization pathways play an important role in the determination of the micro- and meso- structures in crystalline systems. These processes display parallels that cross-cut multiple disciplines investigating crystallization across four orders of magnitude in size scales and widely differing environments, hinting that alternative crystal growth pathways may be a fundamental scheme in natural crystal formation. Using a system of short-range attractive microbeads, we demonstrate that the addition of a small concentration of sub-species incommensurate with the lattice spacing of the dominant species results in a stark change in crystal size and morphology. These changes are attributed to the presence of fleeting, amorphous-like configurations of beads that ultimately change the melting and growth dynamics in preferred directions. From these real-time observations, we hypothesize the amorphous mineral precursors present in biological mineralized tissues undergo similar non-classical crystallization processes resulting in the complex structures found in biomineralization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nonlinear problems in flight dynamics

A comprehensive framework is proposed for the description and analysis of nonlinear problems in flight dynamics. Emphasis is placed on the aerodynamic component as the major source of nonlinearities in the flight dynamic system. Four aerodynamic flows are examined to illustrate the richness and regularity of the flow structures and the nature of the flow structures and the nature of the resulting nonlinear aerodynamic forces and moments. A framework to facilitate the study of the aerodynamic system is proposed having parallel observational and mathematical components. The observational component, structure is described in the language of topology. Changes in flow structure are described via bifurcation theory. Chaos or turbulence is related to the analogous chaotic behavior of nonlinear dynamical systems characterized by the existence of strange attractors having fractal dimensionality. Scales of the flow are considered in the light of ideas from group theory. Several one and two degree of freedom dynamical systems with various mathematical models of the nonlinear aerodynamic forces and moments are examined to illustrate the resulting types of dynamical behavior. The mathematical ideas that proved useful in the description of fluid flows are shown to be similarly useful in the description of flight dynamic behavior.

Chapman, G. T.↗

System identification of analytical models of damped structures

A procedure is presented for identifying linear nonproportionally damped system. The system damping is assumed to be representable by a real symmetric matrix. Analytical mass, stiffness and damping matrices which constitute an approximate representation of the system are assumed to be available. Given also are an incomplete set of measured natural frequencies, damping ratios and complex mode shapes of the structure, normally obtained from test data. A method is developed to find the smallest changes in the analytical model so that the improved model can exactly predict the measured modal parameters. The present method uses the orthogonality relationship to improve mass and damping matrices and the dynamic equation to find the improved stiffness matrix.

Fuh, J.-S.↗

The evolution from weak to strong geomagnetic activity - An interpretation in terms of deterministic chaos

An analogue of the magnetosphere developed on the basis of Shaw's (1984) dripping faucet model was used to model the mechanisms of the magnetospheric response to energy transfer from the solar wind. It is demonstrated that geomagnetic activity results from nonlinearly coupled physical processes and that the strength and the nature of the coupling changes dramatically as the magnetosphere is driven harder and harder by increasing energy input. Based on initial results obtained from the model, is is suggested that a chaotic transition takes place in the analogue system as the loading rate is increased beyond a critical value. This model is able to explain many of the features in the results of linear prediction filtering techniques.

Baker, D. N.↗