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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

Solar Airplane Concept Developed for Venus Exploration

An airplane is the ideal vehicle for gathering atmospheric data over a wide range of locations and altitudes, while having the freedom to maneuver to regions of scientific interest. Solar energy is available in abundance on Venus. Venus has an exoatmospheric solar flux of 2600 W/m2, compared with Earth's 1370 W/m2. The solar intensity is 20 to 50 percent of the exoatmospheric intensity at the bottom of the cloud layer, and it increases to nearly 95 percent of the exoatmospheric intensity at 65 km. At these altitudes, the temperature of the atmosphere is moderate, in the range of 0 to 100 degrees Celsius, depending on the altitude. A Venus exploration aircraft, sized to fit in a small aeroshell for a "Discovery" class scientific mission, has been designed and analyzed at the NASA Glenn Research Center. For an exploratory aircraft to remain continually illuminated by sunlight, it would have to be capable of sustained flight at or above the wind speed, about 95 m/sec at the cloud-top level. The analysis concluded that, at typical flight altitudes above the cloud layer (65 to 75 km above the surface), a small aircraft powered by solar energy could fly continuously in the atmosphere of Venus. At this altitude, the atmospheric pressure is similar to pressure at terrestrial flight altitudes.

Landis, Geoffrey A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hydrostatic and Non‐Hydrostatic Baroclinic Instability in the Dynamical Core of the DOE Global Climate Model

Abstract The dynamical core of the Department of Energy global climate model is used to understand the role of non‐hydrostatic dynamics in the simulation of dry and moist baroclinic waves. To reduce computational cost, the Diabatic Acceleration and REscaling approach is adopted. Scale analysis and numerical simulations suggest that the model solution is not distorted by the change of spherical metric terms due to the change of Earth radius, neither are the inter‐scale interactions strongly altered as indicated by the analysis of spectral flux. Compared with hydrostatic simulations, the onset of baroclinic instability is delayed under non‐hydrostatic dynamics as the associated weaker vertical motions tend to increase the critical wavelength and narrow the range of waves that can be baroclinically unstable. During the development of baroclinic waves, non‐hydrostatic dynamics tends to induce vertical motions in the upper troposphere, accelerating the eastward propagation of upper‐level ridges through their impact on local vorticity tendency. These processes reduce the westward tilt of the vertical ridge axes and suppress the conversion of mean flow available potential energy to eddy kinetic energy, leading to weaker baroclinic eddies than in hydrostatic simulations. The contrasts between hydrostatic and non‐hydrostatic settings hold in supplemental experiments that vary the background flow Rossby number, the amount of water vapor content and vertical resolution. We also find that mesoscale and smaller‐scale activities can be considerably under‐represented when the vertical resolution is limited to that typically used in global climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Significant Features Found in Simulated Tropical Climates Using a Cloud Resolving Model

Cloud resolving model (CRM) has widely been used in recent years for simulations involving studies of radiative-convective systems and their role in determining the tropical regional climate. The growing popularity of CRMs usage can be credited for their inclusion of crucial and realistic features such like explicit cloud-scale dynamics, sophisticated microphysical processes, and explicit radiative-convective interaction. For example, by using a two-dimensional cloud model with radiative-convective interaction process, found a QBO-like (quasibiennial oscillation) oscillation of mean zonal wind that affected the convective system. Accordingly, the model-generated rain band corresponding to convective activity propagated in the direction of the low-level zonal mean winds; however, the precipitation became "localized" (limited within a small portion of the domain) as zonal mean winds were removed. Two other CRM simulations by S94 and Grabowski et al. (1996, hereafter G96), respectively that produced distinctive quasi-equilibrium ("climate") states on both tropical water and energy, i.e., a cold/dry state in S94 and a warm/wet state in G96, have later been investigated by T99. They found that the pattern of the imposed large-scale horizontal wind and the magnitude of the imposed surface fluxes were the two crucial mechanisms in determining the tropical climate states. The warm/wet climate was found associated with prescribed strong surface winds, or with maintained strong vertical wind shears that well-organized convective systems prevailed. On the other hand, the cold/dry climate was produced due to imposed weak surface winds and weak wind shears throughout a vertically mixing process by convection. In this study, considered as a sequel of T99, the model simulations to be presented are generally similar to those of T99 (where a detailed model setup can be found), except for a more detailed discussion along with few more simulated experiments. There are twelve major experiments chosen for presentations that are introduced in section two. Several significant feature analyses regarding the rainfall properties, CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), cloud-scale eddies, the stability issue, the convective system propagation, relative humidity, and the effect on the quasi-equilibrium state by the imposed constant. radiation or constant surface fluxes, and etc. will be presented in the meeting. However, only three of the subjects are discussed in section three. A brief summary is concluded in the end section.

Shie, C.-L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of Diffuse and Ground-Reflected Irradiance on the Spectral Modeling of Solar Reference Cells

Thermal Energy Storage (TES) is a key component for solar thermal applications to bridge the gap between the demand for thermal energy and the supply of solar energy, whose availability depends on the time of day and season. Thus, cost-effective packed-bed thermal containers filled with a solid storage medium have been proposed for high-temperature sensible heat storage as materials are abundant and relatively cheap. Thus, it is necessary to investigate their performance and temperature profiles during the charge-discharge cycle. Several models are available for this purpose. Typically, the more detailed a model, the greater the computational effort required to solve it, and hence a time-efficient model is needed to prevent excessively long computation times for long-term analysis. At the more basic level, the common Hughes E-NTU model and the less realistic simplified Infinite-NTU model are very important for their less time and computational effort. In this paper, the appropriateness of employing the Infinite-NTU model was evaluated to investigate the performance of a typical and scalable rock-bed TES as a case study. The results presented provide a methodology to quickly test the validity of the model and predict the temperature profile for the case under study. Accordingly, such simple charge-discharge cycle thermal performance predictions are important to plan, design, and rapidly deploy a reliable and economical solar thermal system for the supply of valuable heat to high-temperature demanding applications of power generation and industrial processes as part of a rapid shift towards non-polluting renewable energy. Keywords: Solar Thermal, TES, Packed-bed, NTU model, Temperature profile

PV modeling↗
NASA NTRS2001

ISS And Space Environment Interactions Without Operating Plasma Contactor

The International Space Station (ISS) will be the largest, highest power spacecraft placed in orbit. Because of this the design of the electrical power system diverged markedly from previous systems. The solar arrays will operate at 160 V and the power distribution voltage will be 120 V. The structure is grounded to the negative side of the solar arrays so under the right circumstances it is possible to drive the ISS potential very negative. A plasma contactor has been added to the ISS to provide control of the ISS structure potential relative to the ambient plasma. The ISS requirement is that the ISS structure not be greater than 40 V positive or negative of local plasma. What are the ramifications of operating large structures with such high voltage power systems? The application of a plasma contactor on ISS controls the potential between the structure and the local plasma, preventing degrading effects. It is conceivable that there can be situations where the plasma contactor might be non-functional. This might be due to lack of power, the need to turn it off during some of the build-up sequences, the loss of functionality for both plasma contactors before a replacement can be installed, similar circumstances. A study was undertaken to understand how important it is to have the contactor functioning and how long it might be off before unacceptable degradation to ISS could occur. The details of interaction effects on spacecraft have not been addressed until driven by design. This was true for ISS. If the structure is allowed to float highly negative impinging ions can sputter exposed conductors which can degrade the primary surface and also generate contamination due to the sputtered material. Arcing has been known to occur on solar arrays that float negative of the ambient plasma. This can also generate electromagnetic interference and voltage transients. Much of the ISS structure and pressure module surfaces exposed to space is anodized aluminum. The anodization thickness is very thin to provide the required solar absorptance and emittance. For conditions where ISS structure can charge negative a large percentage of the array voltage, the dielectric strength of this layer is low, and dielectric breakdown (arcing) can occur. The energy stored capacitively in the structure can be delivered to the arc. The mechanisms by which this energy is delivered and how much of the energy is available hasn't been fully quantified. Questions have been raised regarding the possibility of whether a sustained arc might result due to current collected by the solar arrays from local plasma. It was postulated that even if dielectric breakdown didn't occur, impacts due to micrometeoroids and space debris could penetrate thin layers of dielectric on ISS and initiate an arc due to the coupling provided by the dense local plasma produced by the impact. This was proven in experiments conducted jointly by MSFC and Auburn University. A target chamber with a simulated ionospheric plasma and a biased, anodized aluminum plate and a 1-microfarad capacitor was used. The plate was then impacted by 75-micron particles accelerated to orbital velocity. Arc discharges were sustained for higher voltages but a threshold appears below which no discharge was initiated. Most items without an exposed power system will float electrically near the local plasma potential. This is true of the Space Shuttle, an Astronaut on EVA, and similar items. The structure of ISS might be at a large negative voltage. Therefore, capacitively stored energy can be transferred during docking, installing external boxes and equipment and Astronaut contact with ISS structure. The circumstances of when this can happen and the resulting effects are evaluated in this study. Also, a crewmember on EVA might be in the vicinity of an arc. All safety aspects of such an encounter including charging, molten particles from the arc site and EMI have been evaluated. This paper will report on the total results of this study focussed on the 4A configuration, scheduled to be complete in November, 2000. Interactions such as arcing, debris induced arcs, sustained arcs, sputtering, contamination from sputtering and arcing, docking interactions and Astronaut safety issues will all be addressed.

Carruth, M. R., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental and theoretical determinations of hydrogen isotopic equilibrium in the system CH 4 —H 2 —H 2 O from 3 to 200°C

The stable isotopic composition of methane (CH 4 ) is commonly used to fingerprint natural gas origins. Over the past 50 years, there have been numerous proposals that both microbial and thermogenic CH 4 can form in or later attain hydrogen isotopic equilibrium with water (H 2 O) and carbon isotopic equilibrium with carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). Evaluation of such proposals requires knowledge of the equilibrium fractionation factors between CH 4 and H 2 O or CO 2 at the temperatures where microbial and thermogenic CH 4 form in or are found in the environment, which is generally less than 200°C. Experimental determinations of these fractionation factors are only available above 200°C, requiring extrapolation of these results beyond the calibrated range or the use of theoretical calculations at lower temperatures. Here, we provide a calibration of the equilibrium hydrogen isotopic fractionation factor for CH 4 and hydrogen gas (H 2 ) ( D α CH4(g)–H2(g) ) based on experiments using γ-Al 2 O 3 and Ni catalysts from 3 to 200°C. Results were regressed as a 2 nd order polynomial of 1000 × ln D α CH4(g)–H2(g) vs. 1/T (K -1 ) yielding: 1000 × l n D α C H 4 ( g ) - H 2 ( g ) = 3.5317 × 10 7 T 2 + 2.7749 × 10 5 T - 179.48 We combine this calibration with previous experimental determinations of hydrogen isotope equilibrium between H 2 , H 2 O(g), and H 2 O(l) and we provide an interpolatable experimental calibration of 1000 × ln D α CH4(g)–H2O(l) from 3 to 200°C. Our resulting 4th order polynomial is the following equation: 1000 × l n D α C H 4 ( g ) - H 2 O l = - 7.9443 × 10 12 T 4 + 8.7772 × 10 10 T 3 - 3.4973 × 10 8 T 2 + 5.4398 × 10 5 T - 382.05 At 3°C, the value from our calibration differs by 93‰ relative to what would be calculated based on the extrapolation of the only experimental calibration currently available to temperatures below its calibrated range (lowest temperature of 200°C; Horibe and Craig, 1995). We additionally provide new theoretical estimates of hydrogen isotopic equilibrium between CH 4 (g), H 2 (g), and H 2 O(g) and carbon isotopic equilibrium between CH 4 (g) and CO 2 (g) using Path Integral Monte Carlo (PIMC) calculations. Our PIMC calculations for hydrogen isotopic equilibrium between CH 4 and H 2 agree 1:1 with our experiments. Finally, we compile carbon and hydrogen isotopic measurements of CH 4 , CO 2 , and H 2 O from various environmental systems and compare observed differences between carbon and hydrogen isotopes to those expected based on isotopic equilibrium. We find that isotopic compositions of some microbial gases from marine sedimentary, coalbed, and shale environments are consistent with those expected for CH 4 H 2 O(l) hydrogen and CH 4 CO 2 carbon isotopic equilibrium. In contrast, microbial terrestrial and pure culture gases are not consistent with both CH 4 H 2 O(l) hydrogen and CH 4 CO 2 carbon isotopic equilibrium. Overall, these results are explained qualitatively using previously developed conceptual models that link free energy gradients available to microorganisms to the degree that their enzymes can promote isotope-exchange reactions between CH 4 , CO 2 , and H 2 O.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

On Secured Spinning Reserve Deployment of Energy-Limited Resources Against Contingencies

Featured with fast response abilities and high ramp rates, energy storage systems (ESS), such as pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) plants and battery storage systems (BSS), are considered as key first-responders to provide spinning reserve in response to system contingencies. However, ESSs are energy-limited resources, and their sustained spinning reserve deployment is restricted by the stored energy and available capacity. Indeed, the spinning reserve deployment against contingencies may deviate actual state-of-charge (SOC) from the scheduled value, inducing potential SOC boundary violations and non-dispatchability in later hours. This paper proposes the post-contingency operation model and the spinning reserve secure constraints to address these issues. The post-contingency operation model describes that spinning reserve from ESSs is promptly deployed when contingency occurs, and then gradually substituted by quick-start units when they are switched online. By leveraging this operation strategy, spinning reserve secure constraints in terms of SOC headrooms are adopted to guarantee its deplorability. Furthermore, a modified IEEE 118-bus system with multiple PSHs and BSSs is used to verify the proposed approach.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Challenges and Opportunities in Decarbonizing the U.S. Energy System

The United States has pledged to develop a 100% carbon-free electric power system by 2035 and a net-zero-emissions economy by 2050. While important advancements have been made in the scale, performance, and economics of clean energy technologies, meeting the nation's ambitious goals will not only require their deployment at scale, but also additional innovation and effective integration of different solutions. Technological developments across the broad suite of low-carbon energy solutions are advancing rapidly, with ongoing innovations in renewable electricity generation, industrial processes, and energy-saving technologies and services, including LED lighting, induction heating, electric vehicles, energy storage solutions, and mobility as a service, plus smart devices, controls, and more efficient and smart buildings. Combining renewable electricity with biotic and abiotic pathways to produce chemicals, fuels, and materials promises to deliver new solutions. Grid-interactive buildings and communities, integrating transportation infrastructure and vehicles, are likely to be significant components of any zero-carbon energy strategy. Low-carbon industrial manufacturing will also make strong contributions to a net-zero economy. While the technical prospects appear promising, variations in the state of infrastructure, jurisdictional and social equity, pollution, economic and socio-cultural constraints, energy resource availability, and supply chain dynamics found in different locations present a range of challenges and demand customized solutions. This paper provides a critical review and offers new insights into the technical, infrastructure, analytic, political, and economic challenges faced in translating the nation's ambitious net-zero-emissions goals into feasible and reliable implementation action plans.

circular economy↗
NASA NTRS2001

[Modifications in myocardial energy metabolism in diabetic patients]]

The capacity of cardiac myocyte to regulate ATP production to face any change in energy demand is a major determinant of cardiac function. Because FA is the main heart fuel (although the most expensive one in oxygen, and prompt to induce deleterious effects), this process is based on a balanced fatty acid (FA) metabolism. Several pathological situations are associated with an accumulation of FA or derivatives, or with an excessive b-oxidation. The diabetic cardiomyocyte is characterised by an over consumption of FA. The control of the FA/glucose balance clearly appears as a new strategy for cytoprotection, particularly in diabetes and requires a reduced FA contribution to ATP production. Cardiac myocytes can control FA mitochondrial entry, but display weak ability to control FA uptake, thus the fate of non beta-oxidized FA appear as a new impairment for the cell. Both the trigger and the regulation of cardiac contraction result from membrane activity, and the other major FA function in the myocardium is their role in membrane homeostasis, through the phospholipid synthesis and remodeling pathways. Sudden death, hypercatecholaminemia, diabetes and heart failure have been associated with an altered PUFA content in cardiac membranes. Experimental data suggest that the 2 metabolic pathways involved in membrane homeostasis may represent therapeutic targets for cytoprotection. The drugs that increase cardiac phospholipid turnover (trimetazidine, ranolazine,...) display anti-ischemic non hemodynamic effect. This effect is based on a redirection of FA utilization towards phospholipid synthesis, which decrease their availability for energy production. A nutritional approach gave also promising results. Besides its anti-arrhythmic effect, the dietary docosahexaenoic acid is able to reduce FA energy consumption and hence oxygen demand. The cardiac metabolic pathways involving FA should be considered as a whole, precariously balanced. The diabetic heart being characterised by a different metabolic "status" with similarities to that of myocardium in coronary disease. Diabetes and other chronic cardiac diseases share common FA metabolism disorders leading to an altered energy balance, a decrease in long chain polyunsaturated Fas, and altered FA profiles in cardiac membranes. These disturbances, however, do not represent independent therapeutic targets, and should be considered as a whole.

Myocardium/metabolism↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Distribution System Resilience: A First-Order Meta-RL Algorithm for Critical Load Restoration

The increasing frequency of extreme events and the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into modern grids have elevated the need for resilient and efficient critical load restoration strategies in distribution systems. However, the stochastic nature of renewable DERs, limited energy resource availability and the intricate nonlinearities inherent in complex grid control problem make the problem challenging. Although reinforcement learning (RL) and warm-start RL methods have shown promising results, their performance often falls short in rapidly adapting to new, unseen situations and typically requires exhaustive problem-specific tuning. To address these gaps, we propose a First-Order Meta-based RL (FOM-RL) algorithm within an online framework for adaptive and robust critical load restoration. By harnessing local DERs as the enabling technology, FOM-RL allows the RL agent to swiftly adapt to new unseen scenarios by leveraging previously acquired knowledge of different tasks. Experimental results provide evidence that proposed algorithm learns more efficiently and showcases generalization capabilities across diverse set of operational scenarios. Moreover, a rigorous theoretical analysis yields a tight sublinear regret bound, sensitive to temporal variability, with a task-averaged optimality gap bounded by O(VM+D*/(Tsquare root(M))). These results suggest that optimality improves with task similarity and an increased number of tasks M, reaffirming the efficacy and scalability of the proposed approach in addressing the complexities of critical load restoration in distribution systems.

complexity theory↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detection of DoS Attacks Using ARFIMA Modeling of GOOSE Communication in IEC 61850 Substations

Integration of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in modern smart grids (SGs) offers many advantages including the use of renewables and an effective way to protect, control and monitor the energy transmission and distribution. To reach an optimal operation of future energy systems, availability, integrity and confidentiality of data should be guaranteed. Research on the cyber-physical security of electrical substations based on IEC 61850 is still at an early stage. In the present work, we first model the network traffic data in electrical substations, then, we present a statistical Anomaly Detection (AD) method to detect Denial of Service (DoS) attacks against the Generic Object Oriented Substation Event (GOOSE) network communication. According to interpretations on the self-similarity and the Long-Range Dependency (LRD) of the data, an Auto-Regressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model was shown to describe well the GOOSE communication in the substation process network. Based on this ARFIMA-model and in view of cyber-physical security, an effective model-based AD method is developed and analyzed. Two variants of the statistical AD considering statistical hypothesis testing based on the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT) and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) are presented to detect flooding attacks that might affect the availability of the data. Our work presents a novel AD method, with two different variants, tailored to the specific features of the GOOSE traffic in IEC 61850 substations. The statistical AD is capable of detecting anomalies at unknown change times under the realistic assumption of unknown model parameters. The performance of both variants of the AD method is validated and assessed using data collected from a simulation case study. We perform several Monte-Carlo simulations under different noise variances. The detection delay is provided for each detector and it represents the number of discrete time samples after which an anomaly is detected. In fact, our statistical AD method with both variants (CUSUM and GLRT) has around half the false positive rate and a smaller detection delay when compared with two of the closest works found in the literature. Our AD approach based on the GLRT detector has the smallest false positive rate among all considered approaches. Whereas, our AD approach based on the CUSUM test has the lowest false negative rate thus the best detection rate. Depending on the requirements as well as the costs of false alarms or missed anomalies, both variants of our statistical detection method can be used and are further analyzed using composite detection metrics.

IEC 61850 electrical substations↗
DOE OSTI2021

Progress on Optimizing Wind Farms and Rotor Designs Using Adjoints

Modern wind plants are increasingly tasked with multiple performance objectives. In addition to designing plants that maximize power output and minimize the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), the design and operation of wind plants is increasingly influenced by challenges regarding grid integration of variable generation renewables. This places a growing emphasis on making wind plants more controllable and predictable. WindSE is a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model designed around analytical gradient and adjoint methods, with the ability to capture terrain-induced effects, as shown in Figure 1. The recent addition of an unsteady solver with an actuator line method (ALM) and ongoing work to enable massively parallel optimizations gives it a unique niche to explore coupled plant-level controls and design problems. This code is an open source python package built on the FEniCS framework that utilizes fast, parallel PETSc solvers to model fluid flow throughout wind-farm scale domains. Two recent studies performed using WindSE demonstrate the capability to optimize under a wide variety of flow conditions and objective functions. In the first, we present an optimization focused on modifying the layout of a wind farm with a fixed number of turbines for maximum total power output [1]. This study highlights the ability to quickly perform simulations using the steady Navier-Stokes solver combined with rotors represented as actuator disks while also stressing the importance of capturing terrain-induced effects. Gradient-based optimization using the RANS equations is viable due to the inclusion of efficiently computed adjoint derivatives. We interpret the physical results of the optimal layout and also discuss the computational cost of scaling to larger problems. In the second study, we present the capabilities of the unsteady Navier-Stokes solver, where rotor-blade profiles represented by actuator lines are optimized to enhance wake steering effects and overall power production [2]. We quantify the wind plant performance gains obtained from this type of simultaneous control co-design optimization as compared to optimizing the blade design and yaw independently. Figure 2 shows the differences between a baseline two-turbine system and an optimized system where we fine-tune the blade chord profile. Results and challenges from each study are quickly summarized and used to motivate the current development efforts within WindSE. Current and future work is focused on enabling higher-resolution studies with more degrees of freedom through parallelization of both the simulation and optimization algorithms. We present benchmarking results to show that WindSE performs well in both weak- and strong-scaling tests and further demonstrate that the optimizer obtains the same convergence rates in both shared- and distributed-memory environments. Using larger wind farms, we can study deep-array effects within an optimization context, allowing the use of objective functions that have been previously unstudied. As an example, we present ongoing work on a blockage metric which characterizes the loss of available kinetic energy due to wake effects from multiple upstream turbines.

adjoint optimization↗
NASA NTRS1993

Spectrophotometry of Wolf-Rayet stars. I - Continuum energy distributions

All available low-resolution IUE spectra are assembled for Galactic, LMC, and SMC W-R stars and are merged with ground-based optical and NIR spectra in order to collate in a systematic fashion the shapes of these energy distributions over the wavelength range 0.1-1 micron. They can be consistently fitted by a power law of the form F(lambda) is approximately equal to lambda exp -alpha over the range 1500-9000 A to derive color excesses E(B-V) and spectral indices by removing the 2175-A interstellar absorption feature. The WN star color excesses derived are found to be in good agreement with those of Schmutz and Vacca (1991) and Koesterke et al. (1991). Significant heterogeneity in spectral index values was generally seen with any given subtype, but the groups consisting of the combined set of Galactic and LMC W-R stars, the separate WN and WC sequences, and the Galactic and LMC W-R stars all showed a striking and consistent Gaussian-like frequency distribution of values.

Morris, Patrick W.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projected changes to severe thunderstorm environments as a result of twenty-first century warming from RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations

Hazardous weather related to the occurrence of severe thunderstorms including tornadoes, high-winds, and hail cause significant damage globally to life and property every year. Yet the impact on these storms from a warming climate remains a difficult task due to their transient nature. Here, we investigate the change in large-scale environments in which severe thunderstorms form during twenty-first century warming (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) in a group of RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations. Severe potential is measured in terms of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and vertical wind-shear during the severe seasons in three regions which are known to currently be prone to severe hazards: North America, subtropical South America, and eastern India and Bangladesh. In every region, environments supportive for severe thunderstorms are projected to increase during the warm season months in both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios during the twenty-first century. The number of days supportive for severe thunderstorms increases by several days per season over the vast majority of each region by the end of the century. Analyzing the CAPE and shear trends during the twenty-first century, we find seasonally and regionally specific changes driving the increased severe potential. Twenty-first century surface warming is clearly driving a robust increase in CAPE in all regions, however poleward displacement of vertical shear in the future leads to the displacement of severe environments over North America and South America. The results found here relate that severe impacts in the future cannot be generalized globally, and that regionally specific changes in vertical shear may drive future movement of regions prone to severe weather.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗