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At least 631 records · Page 35

2022 Summer Resource Adequacy in the ERCOT Region

This report is a 2022 update to the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) report that examined the potential system performance of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system during the summer of 2021. Anticipated summer reserve margins in ERCOT have risen year-over-year from the 15.7 percent reported in ERCOT’s Final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for Summer 2021 to 22.8 percent in the Final SARA for Summer 2022, driven mostly by increases in wind and solar generation. Using data from ERCOT’s 2022 Summer SARA, Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) reports, and historical performance data obtained from ERCOT and Hitachi Energy Velocity Suite, six economic dispatch scenarios using PROMOD were developed to assess the risk to ERCOT of a load shedding event for Summer 2022. The results suggests that ERCOT may be facing a very tight resource adequacy situation, with the potential for a serious shortfall during the summer peak, usually the end of July through mid-August, if demand and generator outage rates significantly exceed peak levels. Under these conditions, ERCOT will need to call on its operating tools, including Energy Emergency Alerts (EEA) and calls to conserve electricity, to maintain reliability and continue serving load. Those measures alone may not be sufficient to avert a shedding of load.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

VPS26 Moonlights as an Arrestin-like Adapter for a 7-transmembrane RGS 2 protein in Arabidopsis thaliana

Extracellular signals perceived by 7-transmembrane (7TM)-spanning receptors on the plasma membrane utilize a cytoplasmic adaptor that propagates signaling and initiates a feedback circuit for desensitization by removal of these receptors at the plasma membrane leading to desensitization to that signal. Signal (agonist) binding often evokes phosphorylation at the C-terminal tail of many 7TM G-protein-coupled receptors in animal cells which then recruits a cytoplasmic intermediate adaptor, β-arrestin, that sets in motion clathrin-mediated endocytosis (CME). Some 7TM receptors have agonist-induced phosphorylation and CME that do not involve β-arrestin, therefore it is unclear how these phosphorylated 7TM receptors are internalized. Arrestins, neither α– or β-types, are not encoded in the Arabidopsis genome, yet Arabidopsis cells have a well characterized signal-induced CME of a 7TM protein, Regulator of G Signaling 1 (AtRGS1). We show that a component of the retromer complex, VPS26, moonlights as an arrestin-like adapter. VPS26A and VPS26B form heterodimer instead of homodimer or monomer. flg22, a bacterium-derived signal that alerts plant cells of the presence of a potential pathogen, induces phosphorylation of AtRGS1 within a cluster of serines in its C-terminal tail, dimerization, and its CME. The phosphorylated C-terminal tail peptide binds to VPS26A/B heterodimer with greater affinity than the unphosphorylated peptide. We propose that VPS26 serves as an arrestin-like adaptor in the CME of AtRGS1 dimerization biased for VPS26 signaling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Smart Alarm for the CEBAF Injector

We present initial results from a proof-of-concept ?smart alarm? for the CEBAF injector. Because of the injector's large number of parameters and possible fault scenarios, it is highly desirable to have an autonomous alarm system that can quickly identify and diagnose unusual machine states. Our approach leverages a trained neural network to not only identify an anomalous machine state, but also to identify the root-cause by pinpointing the specific element or region responsible. We developed an inverse model trained on data collected during normal operations. Using the inverse model, measurements from the machine are used to compute machine settings, which are then compared to EPICS setpoints. Instances when predictions differ from EPICS setpoints by a user-defined threshold are flagged as anomalies, and the user is alerted to the issue. We present the results of our data collection efforts, model training and performance, and initial performance metrics.

Tennant, C.↗

"Russians in the Grid" Enrichment Process

Threat intelligence sources are numerous, and the quality of their intelligence is equally variable. The need for quality, actionable, and shareable intelligence is becoming increasingly important as cyber-threats continue to increase. In this paper, we describe the process we used to enrich U.S. CERT’s Technical Alert entitled “Russian Government Cyber-Activity Targeting Energy and Other Critical Infrastructure Sectors,” affectionately referred to as “Russians In the Grid,” from a series of separate but related reports to a final, actionable, unified Structured Threat Information Expression (STIX) v2 representation of the report. In the process, we detail the tools and procedures we used, some of which are automated and others highly manual. We identify some of the limitations of current STIX enrichment tools and techniques, and propose enhancements to allow for more effective enrichment and better overall threat intelligence to be used for more effective threat data-sharing, as well as machine learning-based predictive threat work being conducted at Idaho National Laboratory.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

The Impact of Circadian Lighting Design Strategies on Lighting and Cooling Energy of an Office Space

A DOE-funded study of the potential electrical and thermal energy impacts of using daylight and electric light to meet existing recommendations for human health and well-being, conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in collaboration with researchers from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the University of Washington, and the University of Oregon. New software tools for modeling the spectral characteristics of light, like Adaptive Lighting for Alertness (ALFA), were leveraged to conduct annual daylighting, electric lighting, heating, and cooling simulations for office applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Analysis and Recommendation of Tritium Gas Continuous Air Monitor Alarm Setpoints for the RPL Stack Exhaust

The Radiochemical Processing Laboratory (RPL) tritium continuous air monitor (CAM) is used for near real-time detection of tritium gas (i.e., elemental tritium [HT] and tritiated water vapor [HTO]) in the stack exhaust. The CAM interfaces with software developed by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)—called the “PNNL OS3700 Tritium Monitoring Software”—that provides near real-time estimates of tritium gas air concentrations and integrated daily activities that are calculated from measured CAM counts. The OS3700 software implements alarm setpoints to alert the facility of larger tritium gas releases that if allowed to persist, could begin to challenge permitted emission and established dose constraints. This report performs a detailed review of historical and current tritium alarm setpoints used at RPL, including discussion of the technical basis used in their development, analysis of alarm frequencies using measured historical data, and performs a detailed dose assessment using more realistic release scenarios and meteorology. Based on the results, the tritium air concentration and integrated daily tritium activity alarm setpoints will remain 2.0 × 10 -5 µCi/ml and 25 Ci/day, respectively. These setpoints achieve the right operational balance in identifying larger releases from planned tritium work at RPL, without being overly conservative so as to cause nuisance alarming. Furthermore, implied doses associated with these setpoints are well below defined and regulatory limits.

325RPL↗

LANL HPC Data Center Monitoring: Summer 2023 Talk [Slides]

Data Center Monitoring is the understanding of everything that happens in the Data Center. Our Ultimate (and probably unreachable) Goal is a holistic view of the Data Center and an understanding of how everything is correlated. We get to that Understanding by collecting logs and metrics, analyzing data, displaying information for customers, and staying alert on events.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Gamma-Ray Transient Network Science Analysis Group Report

The Interplanetary Network (IPN) is a detection, localization and alert system that utilizes the arrival time of transient signals in gamma-ray detectors on spacecraft separated by planetary baselines to geometrically locate the origin of these transients. Due to the changing astrophysical landscape and the new emphasis on time domain and multi messenger astrophysics (TDAMM) from the Pathways to Discovery in Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 2020s , this Gamma-ray Transient Network Science Analysis Group was tasked to understand the role of the IPN and high-energy monitors in this new era. The charge includes describing the science made possible with these facilities, tracing the corresponding requirements and capabilities, and highlighting where improved operations of existing instruments and the IPN would enhance TDAMM science. While this study considers the full multiwavelength and multimessenger context, the findings are specific to space-based high-energy monitors. These facilities are important both for full characterization of these transients as well as facilitating follow-up observations through discovery and localization. The full document reports the history of this field in Section 1, followed by our detailed analyses and findings in some 68 pages, providing a holistic overview of the role of the IPN and high-energy monitors in the coming decades.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Shooter Alarm System Final Report FY23

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is developing a multiphysics sensor package for automatic live arms fire detection for use in schools, houses of worship, hospi tals, etc. The goal is to have a package the size of a common smoke or CO2 detector with a price point of $50 or less which may be deployed throughout the aforementioned facilities. The commercial device will detect live gun fire with low probability of false alarm and auto matically alert first responders. A prototype board with four accelerometers, two infrared (IR) and two microphones has been developed and deployed at two experiments at LLNL’s Small Firearms Training Facility (SFTF). The device successfully and consistently measured signals on the accelerometer and acoustic channels. IR responses were measured depending upon the environment and sound source.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Sentinel Devices LLC (CRADA Final Report)

Industrial equipment is a critical component of virtually all at-scale manufacturing and infrastructure. Broadly speaking, modern equipment is predominantly controlled using hardened digital controllers – computers designed to be able to operate continuously for sometimes extremely long periods of time, with little to no maintenance. Due to the nature of how these digital controllers have evolved, they are solely optimized to execute a single task, and do not have the capabilities or resources to monitor or analyze their internal state beyond simple execution of their program. As a result, for many “common sense” situations where individual data points can be easily determined to be out-of-normal, the controllers are unable to identify these incorrect operational modes unless a human has explicitly programmed in detection of this degradation. This project seeks to develop an AI/ML system which can identify incorrect or anomalous trends in industrial data streams, of exactly the kind that would be produced and seen by these digital controllers, with a minimal amount of computing resources. The benefits produced by developing this system would ultimately be self-monitoring and self-reporting infrastructure, capable of identifying and alerting humans to issues as soon as they happen, potentially long before they have the chance to impact the industrial process.

42 ENGINEERING↗

BatAnalysis - A Comprehensive Python Pipeline for Swift BAT Survey Analysis

The Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) is a coded-aperture gamma-ray instrument with a large field of view that primarily operates in survey mode when it is not triggering on transient events. The survey data consist of 80- channel detector plane histograms that accumulate photon counts over periods of at least 5 minutes. These histograms are processed on the ground and are used to produce the survey data set between 14 and 195 keV. Survey data comprise >90% of all BAT data by volume and allow for the tracking of long-term light curves and spectral properties of cataloged and uncataloged hard X-ray sources. Until now, the survey data set has not been used to its full potential due to the complexity associated with its analysis and the lack of easily usable pipelines. Here, we introduce the BatAnalysis Python package, a wrapper for HEASoftpy, which provides a modern, opensource pipeline to process and analyze BAT survey data. BatAnalysis allows members of the community to use BAT survey data in more advanced analyses of astrophysical sources, including pulsars, pulsar wind nebula, active galactic nuclei, and other known/unknown transient events that may be detected in the hard X-ray band. We outline the steps taken by the Python code and exemplify its usefulness and accuracy by analyzing survey data of the Crab Nebula, NGC 2992, and a previously uncataloged MAXI transient. The BatAnalysis package allows for ~18 yr of BAT survey data to be used in a systematic way to study a large variety of astrophysical sources.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

High-Throughput Custom Monitoring for the Mu2e TDAQ System

In this project we are studying the application of programmable network hardware to provide a custom monitoring capability for the Mu2e Trigger and Data Acquisition System (TDAQ) system. The goal of the Mu2e experiment is to search for a charged-lepton flavor violating processes where a negative muon converts into an electron in the field of an aluminum nucleus. This experiment is intended to improve by four orders of magnitude the search sensitivity reached so far. We have a working prototype of a system that provides high-throughput, custom monitoring for the Mu2e TDAQ system. The custom Mu2e network packet header format is parsed as it crosses the network switch. Parsing extracts bits that convey information about error states at read-out controllers (ROCs). This information is periodically relayed to the switch controller, which in turn alerts experiment operators.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

helioLuna: Prospect for cislunar spacecraft and near-earth asteroid detection using heliostat fields at night

We experimentally and computationally investigate a proposed frequency-domain method for detecting and tracking cislunar spacecraft and near-earth asteroids using heliostat fields at night. Unlike imaging, which detects spacecraft and asteroids by their streak in sidereally-fixed long-exposure photographs, our proposed detection method oscillates the orientation of heliostats concentrating light from the stellar field and measures the light’s photocurrent power spectrum at sub-milliHertz resolution. If heliostat oscillation traces out an ellipse fixed in the galactic coordinate system, spacecraft or asteroids produce a peak in photocurrent power spectrum at a frequency slightly shifted from the starlight peak. The frequency shift is on the scale of milliHertz and proportional to apparent angular rate relative to sidereal. Relative phase corresponds to relative angular position, enabling tracking. A potential advantage of this frequency-domain method over imaging is that detectivity improves with apparent angular rate and number of heliostats. Since heliostats are inexpensive compared to an astronomical observatory and otherwise unused at night, the proposed method may cost-effectively augment observatory systems such as NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SSTDR and FDR Detection of Un-Energized and Energized Cable Anomalies Including Thermal Degradation Using Machine Learning

Historically, cables are initially qualified for nuclear power plant use for 40 years. As plants extend their operating license to 60 and 80 years, continued use of these cables must shift to a performance-based approach since it is cost prohibitive to completely replace cables that are likely still capable of performing their design function. A variety of cable tests are available and are commonly applied during outages when the cables can be taken out of service. Frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) is one of these test methods that is being more broadly accepted and used because it not only detects anomalies along the cable with a low-voltage signal that does not stress the cable insulation, but the technique also locates the anomalies. This supports follow-up local inspection and local repair or partial replacement of a damaged cable segment. Currently, FDR testing is only applied to cables that are taken out of service since the test instrument would be damaged by operational voltages. A related technology that has found some acceptance in the aircraft and rail industry is spread spectrum time domain reflectometry (SSTDR). This technology has been implemented with a custom commercial instrument by LiveWire Innovation that is designed to operate on live cables up to 1000 volts and with a bandwidth of 48 MHz. Initial evaluation by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) of the Live Wire system indicated that a broader bandwidth (BW) SSTDR may be better for many kinds of flaws. This led PNNL to develop an SSTDR laboratory instrument suitable for tests up to 500 MHz bandwidth. Testing on energized cables is also desirable for online monitoring systems so an inductive clamshell coupler was developed that allows energized cables to be tested up to at least 5 kV and likely higher voltage levels. Dielectric spectroscopy and tan delta testing plus various laboratory destructive tests were included in this data acquisition campaign directed to feed a machine learning (ML) study. With these kinds of developments, online energized cable tests may be possible with industrial adoption of such hardware advances but it will be completely impractical to have highly skilled data analysts continually examine these complex signals for indications of damage or compromised conditions. If online testing is to be implemented in new test hardware, it must be accompanied by software that can interpret the signals and alert plant operators of changing or degraded conditions. The thermally aged, shielded cable investigated here was separately treated for ML analysis. Visual analysis of electrical data showed generally increasing peaks where the cable entered and exited the oven. These peaks were not exactly aligned with expected locations, but these differences were attributed to velocity of propagation calibration errors. Only supervised ML was applied to the thermally aged data as this data was only available shortly before the committed publication date of this report. The supervised ML was structured to divide the 0 to 70-day responses as ‘normal’ from 0 to 35 days or ‘anomalous’ from 36 to 70 days, based on cable tensile elongation at break (EAB) insulation characterization. Using 80% of the data for training and 20% for testing, the supervised ML predicted normal versus anomalous was 70% accurate. Important conclusions include: • Accuracy to predict the presence of cable damage is improved from the 2023 effort by more training data. Weighted accuracies for comparisons among the instruments ranged from 67 to 89 % for unsupervised ML and 71 to 99% for supervised ML. • Based on the synthetic data tests, the unsupervised models are more generalizable to unseen anomalies. The Multi-Layer Perceptron classifier (MLP) model reported as high as 99.7% accuracy on the test data, but this dropped to 58.3% when tested on the synthetic data. In contrast, the unsupervised Pointwise model only achieved 89.7% accuracy on the experimental data but reported 78.3% accuracy on the synthetic data. • The best anomaly indicators are higher frequency (400 MHz BW) FDR data. Other tests may be interesting but for this study, this was the best predicter.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Quality Ranking of Unary Chloride Salt Property Data Included in MSTDB-TP

Molten salt reactor developers rely on thermal property data to design, license and operate the reactors. The Molten Salt Thermal Database-Thermophysical Properties (MSTDB-TP) was established under the DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program and is managed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory to serve as a single source of thermophysical property values measured for a wide variety of molten salt systems for use by researchers, molten salt reactor developers, and regulators. These properties include density, viscosity and thermal diffusivity and conductivity. Published measurements of molten salt properties are lacking for many salts of interest and the data that are available are often inconsistent. This creates a challenge for MSR developers when determining which property values to use when designing their reactors. It is the purpose of this work to apply a consistent ranking system to all data entries that indicates the quality of property values listed in the database. These rankings will be the technical basis for down-selections by the database developers and alert users about the quality of the available property values. MSTDB-TP collects all available property data and indicates preferred data sets or correlations. However, all available data sets are included in the database. Quality assessments and rankings are being applied to data in MSTDB-TP to provide an indication of the quality of each data set independent of consistency with other data. Previous reports detailed the ranking system that was followed and assessments of unary fluoride data sets. Documentation of the quality of data in MSTDB-TP was continued by reviewing and assessing all available sources of density, viscosity and thermal diffusivity or conductivity values for unary chloride salts in MSTDB-TP V3.0 using the same criteria.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Puck and Puck/SAW Loop Seals (Final Report)

Tamper-indicating devices (TIDs), also known as seals, play a crucial role in various sectors including international nuclear safeguards, arms control, domestic security, and commercial products, by ensuring that monitored or high-value items are not accessed undetected. These devices do not block access but alert to unauthorized tampering. With adversaries' capabilities evolving, there's a pressing need for seals to advance in terms of effectiveness (e.g., better tamper indication and unique identification), and new technology can improve the efficiency of installation and verification. Passive loop seals, widely used in international nuclear safeguards to ensure that continuity of knowledge is maintained on declared items, face stringent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) requirements that surpass those met by commercial products. The metal cup seal (Figure 1, left), a staple IAEA seal, is robust but requires significant resources for post-use verification – specifically, the seal’s unique identity can only be verified at IAEA headquarters after removal from facilities. Further, the seal has been in use for decades and seal types should periodically be replaced to counter adversarial efforts for defeating seals. In 2020, the IAEA outlined about 40 requirements for a new passive loop seal, aiming for in-situ verification, minimal external tool use, unique identification (UID), and clear tamper indication. In response, research and development efforts focused on creating a new passive loop seal that meets these criteria and in 2022 the IAEA announced the completion of the Field Verifiable Passive Loop Seal (FVPS) (Figure 1, right). Concurrently to the IAEA’s efforts, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) designed, developed, and tested two seal versions – Puck and Puck/SAW, with Puck based on the IAEA’s requirements and including a novel visually-obvious tamper response, and Puck/SAW adding additional beneficial capabilities like the ability to receive a unique identifier from a standoff distance and monitoring the wire integrity. Puck/SAW was specifically designed and developed to address sealing applications in dry spent fuel storage facilities, where the number of sealed spent fuel containers results in heavy verification burden and inspector safety issues related to radiation exposure. These efforts are described in this Executive Summary.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Driver Identification Midyear Report

First, we create a profile for each authorized driver based on their existing driving data. We then train a machine learning model on the driving data from this profile, yielding an individualized model for each driver. Finally during a drive, we pass the Controller Area Network (CAN) data to the model and authen ticate the driver’s identity in real-time. This verification or lack thereof could be used to alert supervisors of threats to their drivers or transported materials. Deviations from their normal driving behavior could indicate high-risk situations, medical events, or even insider threats.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗