Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Variational inference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2008

Global Gravity Wave Variances from Aura MLS: Characteristics and Interpretation

The gravity wave (GW)-resolving capabilities of 118-GHz saturated thermal radiances acquired throughout the stratosphere by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite are investigated and initial results presented. Because the saturated (optically thick) radiances resolve GW perturbations from a given altitude at different horizontal locations, variances are evaluated at 12 pressure altitudes between 21 and 51 km using the 40 saturated radiances found at the bottom of each limb scan. Forward modeling simulations show that these variances are controlled mostly by GWs with vertical wavelengths z 5 km and horizontal along-track wavelengths of y 100-200 km. The tilted cigar-shaped three-dimensional weighting functions yield highly selective responses to GWs of high intrinsic frequency that propagate toward the instrument. The latter property is used to infer the net meridional component of GW propagation by differencing the variances acquired from ascending (A) and descending (D) orbits. Because of improved vertical resolution and sensitivity, Aura MLS GW variances are 5?8 times larger than those from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) MLS. Like UARS MLS variances, monthly-mean Aura MLS variances in January and July 2005 are enhanced when local background wind speeds are large, due largely to GW visibility effects. Zonal asymmetries in variance maps reveal enhanced GW activity at high latitudes due to forcing by flow over major mountain ranges and at tropical and subtropical latitudes due to enhanced deep convective generation as inferred from contemporaneous MLS cloud-ice data. At 21-28-km altitude (heights not measured by the UARS MLS), GW variance in the tropics is systematically enhanced and shows clear variations with the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation, in general agreement with GW temperature variances derived from radiosonde, rocketsonde, and limb-scan vertical profiles.

MLS (MICROWAVE LIMB SOUNDER)↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Differentiable Hydrology Approach for Modeling With Time-Varying Parameters

In the analysis of observational data with mathematical models, it is often desirable to let one or more model parameters vary with time to account for changing environmental conditions or to offer more flexibility. A standard approach for dynamic models is to allow for the number of parameters to grow as a function of time, leading to a high-dimensional inference problem for long data records. We propose using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, a gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to perform Bayesian inference for time-varying parameters (TVP) in hydrology models. As derivatives of model error functions with regard to parameters are not available in closed form, we implemented the GR4J rainfall-runoff models in Theano/PyMC3, and Jax/NumPyro, allowing for the application of automatic differentiation techniques. A simulation experiment assessing the viability of these methods for recovering underlying temporal variation in parameters indicates that a discrete Gaussian random walk-based prior appears to be best suited across a range of scenarios while the continuous-time Gaussian process compares relatively poorly. In an analysis of 20 years of daily real-world streamflow records from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) hydrology data set with increasing data sparsity and at multiple temporal resolutions, we find that TVP inference with gradient-based MCMC is a flexible and reliable approach for analyzing hydrology models with dynamic parameter sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mineralogical and isotopic constraints on early, high-temperature events and reservoirs recorded in the interior of a Type B Ca-Al-rich inclusion from the reduced CV3 chondrite Vigarano

A coordinated mineralogical and oxygen and Al-Mg isotopic study of a Type B Ca-Al-rich inclusion (CAI) from the reduced CV3 chondrite Vigarano was carried out using electron microprobe analysis, transmission electron microscopy, and secondary ion mass spectrometry. This CAI, a once molten igneous object, shows heterogeneous oxygen isotopic compositions among its constituent mineral phases. Spinel is uniformly 16 O-rich with Δ 17 O ≤ −23 ‰. The Δ 17 O values of Al,Ti-diopside in the CAI core range from −11 ‰ to −18 ‰, which are positively correlated with its TiO 2 contents, whereas diopside in the Wark–Lovering (WL) rim is 16 O-rich with Δ 17 O = −23 ‰. Melilite in the CAI mantle shows Δ 17 O values ≤ −10 ‰ only when Åk <15 but becomes more 16 O-poor (Δ 17 O = −3 ‰ to −9 ‰) when Åk >15 . These correlated chemical and oxygen isotopic variations were likely established during crystallization of melilite and Al,Ti-diopside from a partial melt, while spinel preserves the original 16 O-rich composition of the CAI precursor. We infer that a partial melt was isotopically evolving from 16 O-rich to 16 O-poor during melilite crystallization, then back to 16 O-rich during Al,Ti-diopside crystallization via exchange with different gas reservoirs of 16 O-poor and 16 O-rich compositions during heating event(s). Our Al-Mg isotopic measurements of the CAI core and mantle define a single isochron with an inferred initial 26 Al/ 27 Al ratio of (4.93 ± 0.18) × 10 −5 , indistinguishable from that of the WL rim. This indicates that multiple high-temperature events and oxygen isotope exchange with isotopically distinct gas reservoirs occurred rapidly during the CAI formation.

Al-Mg isotopic systematic↗
DOE OSTI2023

classLog: Logistic regression for the classification of genetic sequences

Introduction Sequencing and phylogenetic classification have become a common task in human and animal diagnostic laboratories. It is routine to sequence pathogens to identify genetic variations of diagnostic significance and to use these data in realtime genomic contact tracing and surveillance. Under this paradigm, unprecedented volumes of data are generated that require rapid analysis to provide meaningful inference. Methods We present a machine learning logistic regression pipeline that can assign classifications to genetic sequence data. The pipeline implements an intuitive and customizable approach to developing a trained prediction model that runs in linear time complexity, generating accurate output rapidly, even with incomplete data. Our approach was benchmarked against porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome virus (PRRSv) and swine H1 influenza A virus (IAV) datasets. Trained classifiers were tested against sequences and simulated datasets that artificially degraded sequence quality at 0, 10, 20, 30, and 40%. Results When applied to a poor-quality sequence data, the classifier achieved between >85% to 95% accuracy for the PRRSv and the swine H1 IAV HA dataset and this increased to near perfect accuracy when using the full dataset. The model also identifies amino acid positions used to determine genetic clade identity through a feature selection ranking within the model. These positions can be mapped onto a maximum-likelihood phylogenetic tree, allowing for the inference of clade defining mutations. Discussion Our approach is implemented as a python package with code available at https://github.com/flu-crew/classLog .

Zeller, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Thermal structure and dynamics of the Jovian atmosphere. 2: Visible cloud features

Voyager IRIS data reveal strong similarities among a broad range of features which differ considerably in visual appearance. The atmosphere above anticyclonic features, including the major white ovals, the Great Red Spot, and a zone, are cold relative to the immediate surroundings in the upper troposphere and tropopause region. These results are consistent with upwelling and divergence in this part of the atmosphere. A hot spot and a barge, which are localized cyclonic features, are found to be warm relative to their surroundings, implying subsidence with accompanying convergence. In all cases, the thermal wind shear associated with the features indicates a decay of the vorticity with height in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Vertical velocities inferred from the observed temperature perturbations imply an upper limit of vertical mixing times near the tropopause of approximately 20 years. Temperatures in the upper stratosphere above the anticyclonic features show considerable variation, but in most cases are found to be relatively warm.

Conrath, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Soil moisture from temperature measurements at the Earth's surface, update

Soil moisture budgets at the Earth's surface were investigated based on soil and atmospheric temperature variations. A number of data sets were plotted and statistically analyzed in order to accentuate the existence and the characteristics of mesoscale soil temperature extrema variations and their relations to other parameters. The correlations between diurnal temperature extrema for air and soil in drought and non-drought periods appear to follow different characteristic patterns, allowing an inference of soil moisture content from temperature data. The recovery of temperature extrema after a precipitation event also follows a characteristic power curve rise between two limiting values which is an indicator of evaporation rates. If these indicators are applied universally to regional temperature data, soil moisture content or drought conditions can be inferred directly from temperature measurements.

Welker, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Is the Sun a Long Period Variable

The inventory of atmospheric radiocarbon exhibits quasi-periodic variations of mean period of bar-lambda=269 years over the entire 9000 year record. But the period is inconstant and subject to random variability (sigma m exp. 1/2 = 119 years). The radiocarbon maxima correspond to the quasiperiodic extension of the Maunder minimum throughout the Holocene and resolve the long-standing issue of Maunder cyclicity. The radiocarbon maxima are amplitude modulated by the approx. 2300 year period and thus vary significantly in peak value. The approx. 2300 year period in turn appears to not be modulated by the secular geomagnetic variation. Detection of a Maunder-like sequence of minima in tree ring growth of Bristlecone pine and its correlation with the Maunder (1890, 1922) cyclicity in the radiocarbon record supports the inference that solar forcing of the radiocarbon record is accompanied by a corresponding forcing of growth of timberline Bristlecone pine. Because of the random component of the Maunder period, prediction of climate, if tied to the Maunder cycle other than probabilistically, is significantly hindered. For the mean Maunder period of 269 years, the probability is 67 percent that a given climatic maximum lies anywhere between 150 and 388 years.

Sonett, Charles P.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Distribution of Slip at the Northern Sumatran Fault System

We model spatial variations in horizontal displacements of 117 geodetic sites measured during annual surveys in 1989-1996 with the Global Positioning System (GPS) as elastic strain across a locked strike-slip fault to infer the contemporary slip rate, locking depth, and location of the Sumatran fault (SF) in northern Sumatra (1 S-3 N). GPS-derived slip rate estimates increase slightly northward from 23 plus or minus 3 mm/yr at 0.8 deg S to 26 plus or minus 2mm/yr at 2.7 N. They agree with geologic estimates north of the Equator, but at 0.5 S they are about 10 mm/yr higher. Strain appears to be distributed asymmetrically about the fault. South of 2 N, about 5 mm/yr of shear is required within the offshore forearc, west of the fault, to achieve a closer agreement of fault locations inferred from GPS velocities with geologically identified traces of the SF. Locking depth estimates are on the order of 10-20 km. The western branch of the major fault bifurcation near 1 N slips at a rate five times higher than the eastern branch. The two main strands of the fault at the northwestern tip of Sumatra (5.5 N) appear to be nearly free of horizontal strain; significant slip must occur away from the two strands, probably further east at two other geologically active branches. The Banda Aceh embayment is extruded to the northwest at a rate of 5 plus or minus 2 mm/yr. Within the estimated velocity uncertainties of several mm/yr, fault-normal deformation along the SF is insignificant. Almost strain free, the northern part of the back-arc basin is part of a rigid Sunda shelf, while the northern forearc is subjected to 8 plus or minus 5 x 10 (exp -8)/yr of extension nearly parallel to the arc.

Genrich, J. F.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Support Vector Machines for Classification of Direct Energy Deposition Standoff Distance for Improved Process Control

A critical factor in the implementation of direct energy deposition is the ability to maintain the standoff distance between the nozzle and the build surface, as this influences powder capture efficiency and overall part quality. Due to process-related variations, layer height may vary, causing unintended variation in standoff distance and poor build quality. While prior work has utilized contact probing to qualify standoff distance during processing, in situ methods for qualification of standoff distance are of major interest. The present work seeks to understand efficacy of image-based methods for classifying standoff distance variation in real-time using support vector machines (SVMs). It was hypothesized that the size of the melt pool and the amount of spatter will have significant correlations with deviations in the standoff distance; thus, SVMs were used on a dataset that is comprised of morphological features of melt pool size and image entropy. The SVM model was used to classify melt pool images into categories according to standoff distance variation from nominal. K-folds cross validation was used to find the optimal hyperparameters for the SVM model. To understand the impact of the selected features on the classification performance and inference speed, multiple models were trained with differing numbers of included features. Results for classification score, inference time, and image preprocessing/feature extraction from these data are reported. The present results show that the SVM model was able to predict the standoff distance classification with an accuracy of 97 percent and a speed of 0.122 s per image, making it a viable solution for real-time control of standoff distance.

Klesmith, Zoe↗
NASA NTRS1972

Mariner 9 ultraviolet spectrometer experiment - Mars airglow spectroscopy and variations in Lyman alpha.

Mariner 9 ultraviolet spectrometer observations show the Mars airglow consists principally of emissions that arise from the interaction of solar ultraviolet radiation with carbon dioxide, the principal constituent of the Mars atmosphere. Two minor constituents, atomic hydrogen and atomic oxygen, also produce airglow emissions. The airglow measurements show that ionized carbon dioxide is only a minor constituent of the ionosphere. Using the airglow measurements of atomic oxygen, it is possible to infer that the major ion is ionized molecular oxygen. The escape rate of atomic hydrogen measured by Mariner 9 is approximately the same as that measured two years earlier by Mariner 6 and 7. If the current escape rate has been operating for 4.5 billion years and if water vapor is the ultimate source, an amount of oxygen has been generated that is far in excess of that observed at present. Mariner 9 observations of Mars Lyman alpha emission over a period of 120 days show variations of 20%.

Barth, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Data Assimilation of Photosynthetic Light-use Efficiency using Multi-angular Satellite Data: II Model Implementation and Validation

Spatially explicit and temporally continuous estimates of photosynthesis will be of great importance for increasing our understanding of and ultimately closing the terrestrial carbon cycle. Current capabilities to model photosynthesis, however, are limited by accurate enough representations of the complexity of the underlying biochemical processes and the numerous environmental constraints imposed upon plant primary production. A potentially powerful alternative to model photosynthesis through these indirect observations is the use of multi-angular satellite data to infer light-use efficiency (ε) directly from spectral reflectance properties in connection with canopy shadow fractions. Hall et al. (this issue) introduced a new approach for predicting gross ecosystem production that would allow the use of such observations in a data assimilation mode to obtain spatially explicit variations in ε from infrequent polar-orbiting satellite observations, while meteorological data are used to account for the more dynamic responses of ε to variations in environmental conditions caused by changes in weather and illumination. In this second part of the study we implement and validate the approach of Hall et al. (this issue) across an ecologically diverse array of eight flux-tower sites in North America using data acquired from the Compact High Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (CHRIS) and eddy-flux observations. Our results show significantly enhanced estimates of ε and therefore cumulative gross ecosystem production (GEP) over the course of one year at all examined sites. We also demonstrate that ε is greatly heterogeneous even across small study areas. Data assimilation and direct inference of GEP from space using a new, proposed sensor could therefore be a significant step towards closing the terrestrial carbon cycle.

Hilker, Thomas↗
NASA NTRS1989

Geodynamics and temporal variations in the gravity field

Just as the Earth's surface deforms tectonically, so too does the gravity field evolve with time. Now that precise geodesy is yielding observations of these deformations it is important that concomitant, temporal changes in the gravity field be monitored. Although these temporal changes are minute they are observable: changes in the J2 component of the gravity field were inferred from satellite (LAGEOS) tracking data; changes in other components of the gravity field would likely be detected by Geopotential Research Mission (GRM), a proposed but unapproved NASA gravity field mission. Satellite gradiometers were also proposed for high-precision gravity field mapping. Using simple models of geodynamic processes such as viscous postglacial rebound of the solid Earth, great subduction zone earthquakes and seasonal glacial mass fluctuations, we predict temporal changes in gravity gradients at spacecraft altitudes. It was found that these proposed gravity gradient satellite missions should have sensitivities equal to or better than 10(exp -4) E in order to reliably detect these changes. It was also found that satellite altimetry yields little promise of useful detection of time variations in gravity.

Mcadoo, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Anisotropy of the cosmic microwave background radiation

Theoretical predictions of the angular anisotropy in the cosmic microwave background radiation on both small and large angular scales are presented, and the effect of massive neutrinos on both the background radiation anisotropy and on the galaxy correlation function over very large scales is reviewed. Current observations show that the quadrupole anisotropy provides the greatest constraint on theory, and the values for the gravitational potential fluctuations indicate that small amplitude but sufficiently large-scale density fluctuations, both at the present epoch and on the surface of last scattering, can produce significant large angular scale variations in the radiation temperature. Most importantly, it is proposed that the quadrupole moment is most simply and elegantly interpreted in terms of the density fluctuations on very large scales whose presence is inferred from the requirement that an initial fluctuation spectrum is required in order for structure to develop.

Silk, J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Episodic volcanism of tidally heated satellites with application to Io

Io is presently considered in light of a simple model for the coupled thermal and orbital evolution of a tidally heated satellite in an orbital resonance, demonstrating quantitatively how a feedback mechanism between the orbital and thermal energy of such a satellite may yield periodic surface heatflow and orbital eccentricity variations. The model predicts that the mean motion of Io may currently be increasing, as suggested by recent estimates of Io's mean motion on the basis of eclipse data. It is further inferred that the tidal stresses in the ice shell of Europa, whose eccentricity mimics that of Io, may recently have been sufficiently great to generate the fracturing observed.

Ojakangas, G. W.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Molecules in galaxies. IV - Molecular and atomic hydrogen in Virgo cluster galaxies

If gas and dust are well mixed in a galaxy, the dust mass should be proportional to the sum of the masses of atomic and molecular gas. This assumption has been used to estimate the mean conversion ratio between the flux in the CO J = 1-0 line and the molecular gas mass of a galaxy using a set of observations of the 100 microns continuum flux density, the H I 21 cm line flux and the CO line flux for a sample of spiral galaxies in the Virgo cluster; these galaxies have a wide variation in the ratio of CO to H I line flux. The result, N(H2) = 6.3 + or - 3.5 x 10 to the 20th mol/sq cm/(K x km/s), is in agreement with values inferred from observations of the molecular interstellar medium in the Galaxy.

Knapp, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Tectonic motion in the western United States inferred from very long baseline interferometry measurements, 1980-1986

Over six years of mobile very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) baseline measurements between 12 sites in the western U.S. were used to infer their velocities relative to the North American plate. These velocities were found to be generally consistent with those determined from geologic data and contemporaneous satellite laser ranging measurements in the same region. The discrepancy between the largest velocities determined from the VLBI measurements of 40-48 mm/yr and the relative plate velocity of 50-56 mm/yr predicted from plate motion models is found to be consistent with a broadened distribution of interseismic strain from cyclic activity on the San Andreas and subsidiary faults. The VLBI data are best explained by a cumulative rate of strike-slip motion near the plate boundary of approximately 48 mm/yr, although exclusion of competing values of 56 and 41 mm/yr is based upon very few data. The rates of offshore fault slip inferred from this study range from about 15 mm/yr in central California to negligible amounts in the San Francisco region. Finite element calculations of multiple fault strain distributions show good agreement with systematic variations in the distribution of shear strain along the San Andreas system, as revealed by previous geodetic measurements.

Kroger, Peter M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Latitudinal variation of solar wind corotating stream interaction regions: Ulysses

Ulysses' initial transit tot high heliographic latitudes at a heliocentric distance of approximately 5 AU has revealed systematic effects in the latitudinal evolution of corotating interaction regions (CIRs). At a latitude corresponding roughly to, but slightly less than, the inferred tilt of the coronal streamer belt and embedded heliospheric current sheet, the strong forward shocks commonly associated with CIRs at lower latitudes disappeared almost entirely; however, the reverse shocks associated with these CIRs persisted to latitudes approximately 10 deg above the streamer belt. Systematic meridional flow deflections observed in association with the forward and reverse waves bounding the CIRs demonstrate that the above effect is the result of the fact that the forward waves propagate to lower latitudes and the reverse waves to higher latitudes with increasing heliocentric distance. These observational results are in excellent agreement with the predictions of a three-dimensional model of corotating solar wind flows that originate in a tilted dipole geometry back at the Sun.

Gosling, J. T.↗