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Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities

Annual energy savings of up to $\$ 4$ to $\$ 5$ billion could be achieved nationwide through basic insulation and heating system retrofits of existing homes. However, current utility energy efficiency programs are costly and challenging to scale. Customer acquisition occurs primarily through energy bill mailers, mass media, and online advertising that lack specificity about home-specific retrofit opportunities, expected energy savings, and cost-effectiveness. Specific retrofit opportunities are identified via on-site home energy assessments (HEAs) that are inconvenient to homeowners, expensive, and of variable accuracy. We developed computational algorithms that automatically analyze communicating thermostat (CT) heating data that could be used to increase the customer uptake of insulation and air sealing energy conservation measures (ECMs) by identifying homes with the most significant retrofit opportunities, estimating post-retrofit energy savings, and formulating home-specific outreach. The algorithms are based on an extended second-order grey-box model that characterizes a building’s thermal response using lumped elements, coupled with an empirical model of infiltration that accounts for both wind and stack effects. The basic parameters of the model correspond to actual physical parameters of the home, i.e., the home’s overall R-value of and the building envelope ACH50. Unlike the conventional approach, which estimates model parameters based on the best fit to the observed time-dependent room temperature, our approach derives correlations between the daily heating system runtime and temperature difference (indoor-outdoor) that are more robust to data quality issues in real-world applications. We also used HEA data for algorithm development and validation. With the help of our utility partners, Eversource and National Grid, we obtained data sets for hundreds of Massachusetts homes. For each home, these data sets included three sets of information anonymized by the utility: (1) CT data (HVAC runtime, room temperature, and, for some vendors, outdoor temperature and wind speed) collected by the CT vendor (one of three) over a heating season, (2) HEA report performed by the HEA vendor (same vendor for all homes), (3) Monthly utility gas bills coincident with the CT data (3 to 24 per home, depending on availability). For some homes, we also obtained blower-door test results. Initially, we applied the algorithms developed to homes with a single CT and then extended them to homes with two CTs by using an equivalent home approach. Finally, we developed algorithms for prediction of energy savings and a methodology of comparing our predictions with those generated by HEAs. The main technical results indicate that we can reliably identify homes with insulation and/or air sealing retrofit opportunities and provide accurate savings predictions. Our hypothesis is that the algorithms could be applied to utility energy efficiency programs to identify homes that could realize significant energy savings from insulation and/or air sealing retrofits. This information could then be used to reach out to those homes with highly customized outreach, thereby delivering increased program energy savings and cost-effectiveness. This would: Significantly increase the uptake rate of on-site HEAs, and Significantly increase the fraction of HEAs resulting in ECM implementation. To test these hypotheses, we designed and conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT). The RCT results suggest that personal messaging leads to a two- to five-fold increase in the HEA uptake rate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An extrapolation method for strain ranges and hold times in developing the EPP+SMT creep-fatigue design curves for Alloy 617

Experimental and numerical studies in developing the integrated Elastic–Perfectly Plastic (EPP) plus Simplified Model Test (SMT) design methodology, referred to as the EPP+SMT method, continued in FY2022. This report focuses on the methods for extrapolating the EPP+SMT creep-fatigue (CF) design curves at long hold times and low strain ranges. In this study, the available CF failure data on Alloy 617 at 950°C were analyzed to determine a set of CF failure criteria. At very low strain ranges and long hold times, CF failure data are not accessible by experiments because of the extraordinarily long test durations and the inability of the test machines to accurately control these small strain ranges. A CF experimental approach with the concept of block-strain range CF testing protocol was developed. Tests using this protocol were conducted to generate the needed information for calibrating material parameters of the numerical material models. The Time Fraction based method and Dissipated Energy method were used to extrapolate the CF life curves to low strain ranges and long hold times. Based on the new experimental approach and CF life prediction methods, the CF life curves with various hold times were developed for Alloy 617 at 950°C. In addition, an experiment was designed and is being performed to verify the predicted CF curves at 950°C. The extrapolation procedure will be applied at lower temperatures to complete the development of the EPP+SMT CF design curves for Alloy 617 in F2023.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

MACS, An Instrument, and a Methodology for Simulations and Global Measurements of the Coronal Electron Temperature and the Solar Wind Velocity on the Solar Corona

The determination of the radial and latitudinal temperature and wind profiles of the solar corona is of great importance in understanding the coronal heating mechanism and the dynamics of coronal expansion. Cram presented the theory for the formation of the K-coronal spectrum and identified two important observations. He observed the existence of temperature sensitive anti-nodes at certain wavelengths in the theoretical K-coronal spectra. The anti-nodes are separated by temperature-insensitive nodes. Remarkably, Cram showed that the wavelengths of the nodes and anti-nodes are almost independent of altitude above the solar limb. Because of these features, Cram suggested that the intensity ratios at two anti-nodes could be used as a diagnostic of the electron temperature in the K-corona. Based on this temperature diagnostic technique prescribed by Cram a slit-based spectroscopic study was performed by Ichimoto et al. on the solar corona in conjunction with the total solar eclipse of 3 Nov 1994 in Putre, Chile to determine the temperature profile of the solar corona. In this thesis Cram's theory has been extended to incorporate the role of the solar wind in the formation of the K-corona, and we have identified both temperature and wind sensitive intensity ratios. The instrument, MACS, for Multi Aperture Coronal Spectrometer, a fiber optic based spectrograph, was designed for global and simultaneous measurement of the thermal electron temperature and the solar wind velocity in the solar corona. The first ever experiment of this nature was conducted in conjunction with the total solar eclipse of 11 Aug 1999 in Elazig, Turkey. In this instrument one end of each of twenty fiber optic tips were positioned in the focal plane of the telescope in such a way that we could observe conditions simultaneously at many different latitudes and two different radial distances in the solar corona. The other ends of the fibers were vertically aligned and placed at the primary focus of the collimating lens of the spectrograph to obtain simultaneous and global spectra on the solar corona. By isolating the K-coronal spectrum from the spectrum recorded by each fiber the temperature and the wind sensitive intensity ratios were calculated to obtain simultaneous and global measurements of the thermal electron temperature and the solar wind velocity. We were successful in obtaining reliable estimates of the coronal temperature at many positions in the corona. This is the first time that simultaneous measurements of coronal temperatures have been obtained at so many points. However due to instrumental scattering encountered during observations, reliable estimates of the wind velocity turned out to be impossible to obtain. Although remedial measures were taken prior to observation, this task proved to be difficult owing to the inability to replicate the conditions expected during an eclipse in the laboratory. The full extent of the instrumental scattering was apparent only when we analyzed the observational sequence. Nevertheless the experience obtained from this very first attempt to simultaneously and globally measure both the wind velocity and the temperature on the solar corona have provided valuable information to conduct any future observations successfully.

Reginald, Nelson L.↗

Development and application of two-step uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis methodology for fast reactor safety analysis

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in nuclear reactors for transients is directly linked with safety assessment through the cross-sections uncertainties, provided as a covariance matrix, which are propagated through the reactor system to output of interest pertaining to reactor safety, such as peak temperatures in fuel/clad/coolant. Using a two-step approach, uncertainties are first quantified and propagated from basic input variables (such as reaction cross-sections) to intermediate quantities (such as reactivity feedback coefficients) through lattice level calculations. Uncertainties of intermediate quantities (from the first step) are then propagated through the system transient calculations, in the second step, to obtain uncertainties on reactor safety output parameters of interest. The scope of this work consists of Uncertainty Quantification & Propagation of nuclear data uncertainties that are highly correlated through unprotected transient overpower and unprotected loss of flow to assess their impact on core safety parameters. This two-step approach in the presence of covariance renders the sensitivity analysis very challenging. In fact, usually the sensitivity analysis is restricted to each step, which limits its application since the sensitivities between the system output quantities and the basic input variables are difficult to obtain. Here, in this work, we address this issue by proposing a simple, general methodology to combine the sensitivity indices obtained in each step by assuming the model behavior being linear. For the first step Generalized Perturbation theory based indices are used while in the second step the recently studied Johnson indices. The uncertainty quantification and sensitivity methodologies discussed here are demonstrated on a generic LFR design which is based on the 500 MWth demonstration Lead-cooled fast reactor (DLFR) using oxide fuel, developed by Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC).

42 - ENGINEERING↗

SOAREX-8 Suborbital Experiments 2015 - A New Paradigm for Small Spacecraft Communication

In 2015 NASA plans to launch a payload to 280 Km altitude on a sounding rocket from the Wallops Flight Facility. This payload will contain several novel technologies that work together to demonstrate methodologies for space sample return missions and for nanosatellite communications in general. The payload will deploy and test an Exo-Brake, which slows the payload aerodynamically, providing eventual de-orbit and recovery of future ISS samples through a Small Payload Quick Return project. In addition, this flight addresses future Mars mission entry technology, space-to-space communications using the Iridium Short Messaging Service (SMS), GPS tracking, and wireless sensors using the ZigBee protocol. SOAREX-8 is being assembled and tested at Ames Research Center (ARC) and the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is funding sensor and communications work. Open source Arduino technology and software are used for system control. The ZigBee modules used are XBee units that connect analog sensors for temperature, air pressure and acceleration measurement wirelessly to the payload telemetry system. Our team is developing methods for power distribution and module mounting, along with software for sensor integration, data assembly and downlink. We have demonstrated relaying telemetry to the ground using the Iridium satellite constellation on a previous flight, but the upcoming flight will be the first time we integrate useful flight test data from a ZigBee wireless sensor network. Wireless sensor data will measure the aerodynamic efficacy of the Exo-Brake permitting further on orbit flight tests of improved designs. The Exo-Brake is 5 sq m in area and will be stored in a container and deployed during ascent once the payload is jettisoned from the launch vehicle. We intend to further refine the hardware and continue testing on balloon launches, future sounding rocket flights and on nanosatellite missions. The use of standards-based and open source hardware/software has allowed for this project to be completed with a very modest budget and a challenging schedule. There is a wealth of hardware and software available for both the Arduino platform and the XBee, all low-cost or open-source. Along with the Exo-Brake hardware and deployment discussion, this paper will describe in detail the system architecture emphasizing the successful use of open source hardware and software to minimize effort and cost. Testing procedures, radio frequency interference (RFI) mitigation, success criteria and expected results will also be discussed. The use of Iridium short messaging capability for space-to-space links, standards-based wireless sensor networks, and other innovative communications technology are also presented.

aerobrake↗

Novel Tube Design for Superheater Heat Exchanger Enabled Via Additive Manufacturing

Superheater tubes are critical boiler components that operate at relatively higher temperatures and pressure. Amongst the primary concerns for these tubes is the deposition of ash particles on the tube surface, leading to the reduced thickness of the tube due to material corrosion, consequently causing early creep failure of the component. In this research, a novel tube design has been proposed which resembles a teardrop or ogive shape to reduce the drag and concurrently improve the creep life of the superheater tubes. To administer the practicality of novel tubes, metal additive manufacturing (AM), for instance, laser-powder bed fusion (L-PBF), has been proposed. These unconventional designs were assessed and compared with the baseline circular tube design for mechanical design requirements (hoop stress and creep life) and the particle and flue gas flow characteristics around the differently shaped tubes. A thermomechanical finite element (FE) analysis was performed for hoop stress calculations. This study also emphasizes on effect of circumferential thermal variation on hoop stress distribution in tubes. Therefore, a detailed two-dimensional (2D) thermal simulation has been performed to report the circumferential thermal variation on the tube. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis coupled with particle tracing was performed for gas flow visualization and particle tracing around the proposed shapes and baseline circular-shaped tube design. The Schlieren optic setup was built and leveraged for qualitative validation of the proposed design. The complete design methodology established in the paper shows teardrop-shaped tubes better in terms of drag and creep life in contrast to the circular-shaped tube.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Aerothermodynamic Measurements in Hypersonic Non-Equilibrium Flows

High enthalpy arc-jets are unique facilities particularly suited for simulating complex flows in the aerospace field, such as the aerothermodynamics of a re-entry vehicle. Arc-jets are often used to evaluate important design factors such as heat shield materials and vehicle design. Characterization of these facilities is important, as studies often match specific in-flight environments during experiments. Due to the complex environment produced by an arc-jet, with effects such as thermodynamic and chemical non-equilibrium occurring in the flow, characterization experiments are significantly more difficult than in traditional blow-down wind tunnels. The current work aims to characterize an arc-jet facility in terms of flow temperature, velocity and unsteadiness, in a spatially-resolved analysis. To achieve this goal, a non-intrusive imaging technique called “planar laser-induced fluorescence” was performed in the NASA Langley Hypersonic Materials Environ-mental Test System arc-jet facility. The experimental data was analyzed to produce the quantitative measurements in multiple regions of the flow around a blunt body sample. A quasi-1D low fidelity solver was created to numerically simulate the flow to investigate non-equilibrium effects occur-ring outside the imaging region in the arc-jet nozzle. Unsteadiness in the test section was minimized by analyzing a subset of data assessing the gas injection location. Radial velocity, rotational temperature and translational temperature measurements are provided that can be used to validate future high-fidelity computational studies. The temperature measurements revealed rotational non-equilibrium potentially occurring in the flow. This work provides a methodology for characterizing arc-jet facilities, identifying and correcting sources of systematic error, and estimating the uncertainty associated with the quantitative measurements.

laser induced fluorescence↗

Design of a neutral thermal scattering (NeTS) module for hydrogen in light water

The accurate representation of thermal scattering law (TSL) data is integral to the design and characterization of many modern nuclear systems, particularly those using light water as a moderator/coolant. As a material-dependent distribution over energy-momentum phase space, the TSL may exhibit a variety of unique and relevant conditional (e.g., temperature, pressure) and compositional (e.g., porosity, stoichiometry, radiation damage) dependencies. Currently, there are various approaches to incorporate temperature dependence, which is especially important in coupled neutronic-thermal hydraulic simulations. In each approach, there is an inherent tradeoff between memory consumption and accuracy. Some techniques require tens to hundreds of MBs or more, while others fail to reproduce the underlying data to within 10% error over the considered input domain, despite having a reduced storage burden. This work aims to address both sides of the tradeoff simultaneously by implementing a novel deep learning (DL) approach to TSL representation. The neural thermal scattering (NeTS) concept, which is amenable to an arbitrary number of dependencies, is demonstrated via the inclusion of temperature dependence into a highly compact, highly accurate functional form of the multi- variate TSL (i.e., S(α, β, T)) for hydrogen in light water. Resulting storage requirements are on the order of 100 kB, and median and maximum percent deviations are on the order of 0.1% and 1%, respectively. These measures represent a step improvement over previous techniques. Notably, the developed neural network and feature methodology build on those employed in prior work on beryllium oxide. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Atomic Ordering-Induced Ensemble Variation in Alloys Governs Electrocatalyst On/Off States

The catalytic behavior of a material is influenced by ensembles—the geometric configuration of atoms. Traditional approaches, mainly utilizing solid-solution alloys in electrocatalysis, have often overlooked the challenges posed by concurrent changes in the electronic structure (i.e. d-band center) when the composition is altered. Here, this study introduces a methodology that distinctly separates the geometric effects (i.e. ensembles) from the electronic structure. We compare the reactivity of compositionally identical, but structurally different Pd 3 Bi ordered intermetallic and solid-solution alloys. Remarkably, we find that Pd 3 Bi intermetallics display nearly no reactivity for the methanol oxidation (MOR), while their solid-solution counterparts have significant reactivity. This highlights a unique case where materials with identical chemical compositions demonstrate drastically different catalytic behavior underscoring the critical importance of ensembles in electrocatalysis. Specifically, Pd 3 Bi intermetallics form smaller ensembles (average coordination number: 4.5 ± 1.6) with almost no measurable MOR activity at room temperature, in contrast to the solid-solution Pd 3 Bi that exhibit larger ensembles (average coordination number: 6.8 ± 0.9) and considerable MOR reactivity (0.5 mA cm −2 Pd ). An ordered Pd 3 Bi alloy, with an intermediate ensemble size (average coordination number: 5.3 ± 1.2), displays moderate MOR activity (0.1 mA cm −2 Pd ), further confirming the direct correlation between ensemble size and catalytic activity. Notably, all Pd 3 Bi alloys maintain similar electronic structures, because the chemical composition of the alloys is fixed, indicating that the differences in reactivity are predominantly from changes to the ensemble size. Our findings offer an approach for precisely controlling catalytic activity through manipulating the geometric configuration of the atoms within an alloy, paving the way for more efficient catalyst design.

alloys↗

Synthesizing, Compounding, and Characterizing a Heat Labile Polyurethane Foam

ABSTRACT A need exists for a packaging foam material that can be converted from solid to gaseous degradation products at reasonably low energy levels or temperatures, such as 100O C. This paper will primarily discuss the approaches currently being used to synthesize and characterize such a material. These approaches include the incorporation of novel polyols such as azo containing diols, polycarbonate diols, and polypropylene carbonate polyols into polyurethane foams. Characterization methods include NMR, FTIR, TGA, finite element analysis, impact strength, and others. This project will be funded for a duration of three years. Year 1 focused on developing the proposed test methods and producing an initial rigid polyurethane foam. Year 2 focuses on refining the materials and test methods. If appropriate, design of experiment (doe) techniques will be used to optimize components, component levels, density and other variables to attain required final material properties (TGA weight loss, impact strength, etc.). Year 3 focuses on scaling up to larger engineering quantities. The application for this material is in load securement for transportation of low level radioactive waste materials within the US Department of Energy (DOE) complex. Foam in place process equipment and operators will be shielded using this novel method over current practice. Current practice can involve time consuming methods of load securement in low level radiation environments. This new technique would eliminate exposure time securing the load and greatly improve the As Low As Reasonably Attainable (ALARA) conditions. The objective is to progress to higher Technical Readiness Levels (TRL) and larger pilot scale quantities. This paper discusses methodologies and presents current results to date.

Kranjc, Mark D.↗

Statistical Multiobjective Optimization of Thiospinel CoNi 2 S 4 Nanocrystal Synthesis via Design of Experiments

Thiospinels, such as CoNi 2 S 4 , are showing promise for numerous applications, including as catalysts for the hydrogen evolution reaction, hydrodesulfurization, and oxygen evolution and reduction reactions; however, CoNi 2 S 4 has not been synthesized as small, colloidal nanocrystals with high surface-area-to-volume ratios. Traditional optimization methods to control nanocrystal attributes such as size typically rely upon one variable at a time (OVAT) methods that are not only time and labor intensive but also lack the ability to identify higher-order interactions between experimental variables that affect target outcomes. Herein, we demonstrate that a statistical design of experiments (DoE) approach can optimize the synthesis of CoNi 2 S 4 nanocrystals, allowing for control over the responses of nanocrystal size, size distribution, and isolated yield. After implementing a 2 5–2 fractional factorial design, the statistical screening of five different experimental variables identified temperature, Co:Ni precursor ratio, Co:thiol ratio, and their higher-order interactions as the most critical factors in influencing the aforementioned responses. Second-order design with a Doehlert matrix yielded polynomial functions used to predict the reaction parameters needed to individually optimize all three responses. A multiobjective optimization, allowing for the simultaneous optimization of size, size distribution, and isolated yield, predicted the synthetic conditions needed to achieve a minimum nanocrystal size of 6.1 nm, a minimum polydispersity (σ/$\bar{d}$) of 10%, and a maximum isolated yield of 99%, with a desirability of 96%. The resulting model was experimentally verified by performing reactions under the specified conditions. Furthermore, our work illustrates the advantage of multivariate experimental design as a powerful tool for accelerating control and optimization in nanocrystal syntheses.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

CFD Analysis for Assessing the Effect of Wind on the Thermal Control of the Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity Rover

The challenging range of landing sites for which the Mars Science Laboratory Rover was designed, requires a rover thermal management system that is capable of keeping temperatures controlled across a wide variety of environmental conditions. On the Martian surface where temperatures can be as cold as -123 C and as warm as 38 C, the rover relies upon a Mechanically Pumped Fluid Loop (MPFL) Rover Heat Rejection System (RHRS) and external radiators to maintain the temperature of sensitive electronics and science instruments within a -40 C to 50 C range. The RHRS harnesses some of the waste heat generated from the rover power source, known as the Multi Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG), for use as survival heat for the rover during cold conditions. The MMRTG produces 110 W of electrical power while generating waste heat equivalent to approximately 2000 W. Heat exchanger plates (hot plates) positioned close to the MMRTG pick up this survival heat from it by radiative heat transfer. Winds on Mars can be as fast as 15 m/s for extended periods. They can lead to significant heat loss from the MMRTG and the hot plates due to convective heat pick up from these surfaces. Estimation of this convective heat loss cannot be accurately and adequately achieved by simple textbook based calculations because of the very complicated flow fields around these surfaces, which are a function of wind direction and speed. Accurate calculations necessitated the employment of sophisticated Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) computer codes. This paper describes the methodology and results of these CFD calculations. Additionally, these results are compared to simple textbook based calculations that served as benchmarks and sanity checks for them. And finally, the overall RHRS system performance predictions will be shared to show how these results affected the overall rover thermal performance.

wind↗

Ensemble Manufacturing Techniques for Steam Turbine Components Across Length Scales

Faster design to manufacturing requirements were sought for steam turbine components to meet the changing demands of today’s power grid of improved efficiency through operating temperature increases and enhanced operational flexibility from baseload to cyclic operations. Advances in multiple advanced manufacturing (AM) process enabled redesign of turbine components for extreme environments with the potential to reduce cost. AM is of particular interest to improve component functionality, higher temperature capability, and superior durability in large scale steam turbine applications. AM methods have an immense potential to open-up the design space by working directly with the 3D model to produce near-net shapes, enable fast design-manufacturing iterations, thereby significantly reducing product cost and lead-time up to 25 % from current baseline. However, these benefits cannot be fully realized due to the potential for unknown AM processing defects and their resultant effect upon component performance in service. Siemens is partnering with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Connecticut Center for Advanced Technology (CCAT) to advance the knowledge of complex process-material interactions for desired microstructures and properties that are closely interlinked to component geometries across different length scales. The proposed program utilized an ensemble of multidisciplinary technologies to accelerate the development of materials, high-throughput experiments for their qualification, and design flexibility/topology optimization for repair/redesign of components to address critical failure mechanisms for improved performance and increased reliability of existing power plant components. The proposed activities, if successfully demonstrated for identified components, will enable paradigm shift in customized manufacturing and accelerated qualification/certification towards increased steam turbine component durability, increased turbine efficiency, and reduced CO 2 emissions in load-following environments compared to today’s technology. Technology maturation is built into the project as successful research will include customized process-component down-selection enabling AM methodologies to be incorporated directly into the existing supply chain. The specific activities of the proposed effort are: 1. Topology optimization of down-selected steam turbine parts that are amenable to additive and hybrid manufacturing for cost/performance improvement. 2. Process-structure-property relationships for five AM processes for steam turbine materials of interest to compare with conventional materials. 3. Perform part/assembly build process using advanced additive/hybrid machine tools followed by quality inspection of the built components for insight into qualification for production scale-up. Steam turbine rig testing of printed components under targeted, well monitored and characterized environmental conditions of for performance comparison of baseline and redesigned components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Direct NeTS sampling of nuclear graphite $S(α, β, T)$ in Serpent

For advanced reactor applications, Neural Thermal Scattering (NeTS) modules were developed to predict the thermal scattering law (TSL or $S(α, β, T)$) of a nuclear graphite neutron moderator. NeTS are multi-layer, feedforward artificial neural networks, which act as universal function approximators designed for TSL datasets. In this case, a 4-layer neural network with 164 neurons per layer is trained using FLASSH evaluated data in PyTorch and serialized as a torchscript dictionary to predict $S(α, β, T)$ on-the-fly. Relative, absolute and maximum percent deviations of NeTS from File 7 data generated using the FLASSH code are on the order of 0.01%, 0.1% and 1%, respectively, with low inference latencies of 0.000172 s per $S(α, β, T)$ at a given temperature. Capturing the full dimensionality of possible inelastic neutron-lattice interactions, NeTS functionality is embedded in the Serpent Monte Carlo code, where $S(α, β, T)_{NeTS}$ sampling is conducted on-the-fly and compared to ACE look-up-tables for predicting TREAT criticality. k-eff differences between sampling algorithms of 6 pcm are observed and are within the order of Monte Carlo uncertainty. Compared to discrete and continuous-energy ACE files (30 MB and 131 MB per temperature), the NeTS format is on the order of 200–300 kB for a continuous-temperature, interpolation-free representation of $S(α, β, T)$ and cross sections. NeTS-in-Serpent runtimes comparable with ACE look-up tables are achieved by scaling NeTS for high performance computing architectures with hybrid OpenMP + MPI parallelization. This work validates a novel, self-contained reactor physics framework for predictive cross sections, and demonstrates a general methodology for embedding modern machine learning libraries within existing neutronic analysis frameworks.

Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP)↗

Neural-based time series forecasting of loss of coolant accidents in nuclear power plants

During the last few years, deep learning in neural networks has demonstrated impressive successes in the areas of computer vision, speech and image recognition, text generation, and many others. However, sensitive engineering areas such as nuclear engineering benefited less from these efficient techniques. In this work, deep learning expert systems are utilized to model and predict time series progression of a design-basis nuclear accident, featuring a loss of coolant accident. Two major findings are accomplished in this work. First, the ability to train expert systems with high accuracy, which could help nuclear power plant operators to figure out plant responses during the accident. Second, building fast, efficient, and accurate deep models to simulate nuclear phenomena, which could be valuable to nuclear computational science. In this work, large amount of time series data is obtained from simulation tools by simulating different conditions of the base-case/nominal accident scenario. Four critical outputs/responses are monitored during the accident (e.g. temperature, pressure, break flow rate, water level). Two approaches are adopted in this work. The first approach is to use feedforward deep neural networks (DNN) to fit all time steps and outputs in a single model. The second approach is to use long short-term memory (LSTM) to fit all time steps together for each reactor response separately. Both DNN and LSTM demonstrate very good performance in predicting the test and base-case scenarios, with accuracy as low as 92% and as high as 99%, where these test scenarios are unknown to the expert systems and are not included in the model training. In addition, both approaches demonstrate a significant reduction in computational costs, as the deep expert system is able to accurately predict the accident 100,000 times faster than the original simulation tool. Given sufficient data, the methodology adopted in this study demonstrates that DNN/LSTM expert systems can be used as a decision support system to model advanced time series phenomena within nuclear power plants with high accuracy and negligible computational costs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Assessment Studies for Advanced Reactor Using RAVEN

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is used extensively to evaluate the risks associated with complex engineering systems like Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Current PSA models are based on the Event-Tree/Fault-Tree (ET/FT) methodology. ET and FT models are static and are based on Boolean logic approaches. In the past, concerns have been raised in the literature regarding the capability of the traditional static modelling approaches to adequately account for the impact of process, hardware, software, firmware and human interactions on the stochastic system behaviour. To overcome the limitations of the traditional approach to PSA, several dynamic PSA methodologies have been proposed. One of the dynamic PSA methodologies used for dynamic evaluations is Dynamic Event Tree (DET) framework which can be used to assess the impact of the parameter variability and scenario dynamics on the PSA model for the initiating event. The DET framework couples the stochastic model (number of component/trains that start on demand, operator action timing, etc.) with a Thermal-Hydraulic (TH) model of the plant. This paper explores the use of DET along with a case study on advanced reactor. The initiating event selected for the study was Class IV power supply failure event. The TH analysis considering uncertainty in various parameters was performed using RELAP5 and Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment (RAVEN) tool. Based on the uncertainty analysis, it is concluded that the peak clad temperatures (PCT) are within the limits in all the code runs implying a high-degree of safety margin. However, variation in time to reach the PCT was observed among the code runs and the mean time to reach the PCT was found to be around 8590sec (approximately 2.4 hours). Hence, sufficient time margin is available for human intervention and the operator might have a relatively stress-free state during such an accident scenario. Due to the static nature of the traditional PSA models, the safety margin available was lesser, whereas, with the help of dynamic PSA models, one can demonstrate that the actual available safety margin is more in the present case study and is valuable input from the design point of view.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Improving AIRS Radiance Spectra in High Contrast Scenes Using MODIS

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the EOS Aqua Spacecraft was launched on May 4, 2002. AIRS acquires hyperspectral infrared radiances in 2378 channels ranging in wavelength from 3.7-15.4 microns with spectral resolution of better than 1200, and spatial resolution of 13.5 km with global daily coverage. The AIRS is designed to measure temperature and water vapor profiles for improvement in weather forecast accuracy and improved understanding of climate processes. As with most instruments, the AIRS Point Spread Functions (PSFs) are not the same for all detectors. When viewing a non-uniform scene, this causes a significant radiometric error in some channels that is scene dependent and cannot be removed without knowledge of the underlying scene. The magnitude of the error depends on the combination of non-uniformity of the AIRS spatial response for a given channel and the non-uniformity of the scene, but is typically only noticeable in about 1% of the scenes and about 10% of the channels. The current solution is to avoid those channels when performing geophysical retrievals. In this effort we use data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument to provide information on the scene uniformity that is used to correct the AIRS data. For the vast majority of channels and footprints the technique works extremely well when compared to a Principal Component (PC) reconstruction of the AIRS channels. In some cases where the scene has high inhomogeneity in an irregular pattern, and in some channels, the method can actually degrade the spectrum. Most of the degraded channels appear to be slightly affected by random noise introduced in the process, but those with larger degradation may be affected by alignment errors in the AIRS relative to MODIS or uncertainties in the PSF. Despite these errors, the methodology shows the ability to correct AIRS radiances in non-uniform scenes under some of the worst case conditions and improves the ability to match AIRS and MODIS radiances in non-uniform scenes.

spatial↗

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

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