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NASA NTRS2002

Determining the Cosmic Distance Scale from Interferometric Measurements of the Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect

We determine the distances to 18 galaxy clusters with redshifts ranging from z approximately 0.14 to 0.78 from a maximum likelihood joint analysis of 30 GHz interferometric Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect (SZE) and X-ray observations. We model the intracluster medium (ICM) using a spherical isothermal Beta model. We quantify the statistical and systematic uncertainties inherent to these direct distance measurements, and we determine constraints on the Hubble parameter for three different cosmologies. These distances imply a Hubble constant of 60(sup+4+13)(sub-4-18)km s(exp -1)Mpc(exp -1) for an omega(sub Mu)= 0.3,omega(sub Lambda)=0.7 cosmology, where the uncertainties correspond to statistical followed by systematic at 68% confidence. With a sample of 18 clusters, systematic uncertainties clearly dominate. The systematics are observationally approachable and will be addressed in the coming years through the current generation of X-ray satellites (Chandra and XMM-Newton) and radio observatories (Owens Valley Radio Observatory, Berkeley-Illinois-Maryland Association, and Very Large Array). Analysis of high-redshift clusters detected in future SZE and X-ray surveys will allow a determination of the geometry of the universe from SZE-determined distances.

Reese, Erik D.↗
NASA NTRS1996

(abstract) A Geomagnetic Contribution to Climate Change in this Century

There is a myth that all solar effects can be parameterized by the sun spot number. This is not true. For example, the level of geomagnetic activity during this century was not proportional to the sunspot number. Instead there is a large systematic increase in geomagnetic activity, not reflected in the sunspot number. This increase occurred gradually over at least 60 years. The 11 year solar cycle variation was superimposed on this systematic increase. Here we show that this systematic increase in activity is well correlated to the simultaneous increase in terrestrial temperature that occurred during the first half of this century. We discuss these findings in terms of mechanisms by which geomagnetics can be coupled to climate. These mechanisms include possible changes in weather patterns and cloud cover due to increased cosmic ray fluxes, or to increased fluxes of high energy electrons. We suggest that this systematic increase in geomagnetic activity contributed (along with anthropogenic effects and possible changes in solar irradiance) to the changes in climate recorded during this period.

electrons solar irradiance terrestrial temperature↗
NASA NTRS2007

Accuracy Analysis on Large Blocks of High Resolution Images

Although high altitude frequencies effects are removed at the time of basic image generation, low altitude (Yaw) effects are still present in form of affinity/angular affinity. They are effectively removed by additional parameters. Bundle block adjustment based on properly weighted ephemeris/altitude quaternions (BBABEQ) are not enough to remove the systematic effect. Moreover, due to the narrow FOV of the HRSI, position and altitude are highly correlated making it almost impossible to separate and remove their systematic effects without extending the geometric model (Self-Calib.) The systematic effects gets evident on the increase of accuracy (in terms of RMSE at GCPs) for looser and relaxed ground control at the expense of large and strong block deformation with large residuals at check points. Systematic errors are most freely distributed and their effects propagated all over the block.

Passini, Richardo M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

System for Automated Calibration of Vector Modulators

Vector modulators are used to impose baseband modulation on RF signals, but non-ideal behavior limits the overall performance. The non-ideal behavior of the vector modulator is compensated using data collected with the use of an automated test system driven by a LabVIEW program that systematically applies thousands of control-signal values to the device under test and collects RF measurement data. The technology innovation automates several steps in the process. First, an automated test system, using computer controlled digital-to-analog converters (DACs) and a computer-controlled vector network analyzer (VNA) systematically can apply different I and Q signals (which represent the complex number by which the RF signal is multiplied) to the vector modulator under test (VMUT), while measuring the RF performance specifically, gain and phase. The automated test system uses the LabVIEW software to control the test equipment, collect the data, and write it to a file. The input to the Lab - VIEW program is either user-input for systematic variation, or is provided in a file containing specific test values that should be fed to the VMUT. The output file contains both the control signals and the measured data. The second step is to post-process the file to determine the correction functions as needed. The result of the entire process is a tabular representation, which allows translation of a desired I/Q value to the required analog control signals to produce a particular RF behavior. In some applications, corrected performance is needed only for a limited range. If the vector modulator is being used as a phase shifter, there is only a need to correct I and Q values that represent points on a circle, not the entire plane. This innovation has been used to calibrate 2-GHz MMIC (monolithic microwave integrated circuit) vector modulators in the High EIRP Cluster Array project (EIRP is high effective isotropic radiated power). These calibrations were then used to create correction tables to allow the commanding of the phase shift in each of four channels used as a phased array for beam steering of a Ka-band (32-GHz) signal. The system also was the basis of a breadboard electronic beam steering system. In this breadboard, the goal was not to make systematic measurements of the properties of a vector modulator, but to drive the breadboard with a series of test patterns varying in phase and amplitude. This is essentially the same calibration process, but with the difference that the data collection process is oriented toward collecting breadboard performance, rather than the measurement of output from a network analyzer.

Lux, James↗
NASA NTRS2014

Self-Calibration of BICEP1 Three-Year Data and Constraints on Astrophysical Polarization Rotation

Cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarimeters aspire to measure the faint B-mode signature predicted to arise from inflationary gravitational waves. They also have the potential to constrain cosmic birefringence, rotation of the polarization of the CMB arising from parity-violating physics, which would produce nonzero expectation values for the CMB's temperature to B-mode correlation (TB) and E-mode to B-mode correlation (EB) spectra. However, instrumental systematic effects can also cause these TB and EB correlations to be nonzero. In particular, an overall miscalibration of the polarization orientation of the detectors produces TB and EB spectra which are degenerate with isotropic cosmological birefringence, while also introducing a small but predictable bias on the BB spectrum. We find that BICEP1 three-year spectra, which use our standard calibration of detector polarization angles from a dielectric sheet, are consistent with a polarization rotation of alpha = −2.77deg +/- 0.86deg (statistical) +/- 1.3deg (systematic). We have revised the estimate of systematic error on the polarization rotation angle from the two-year analysis by comparing multiple calibration methods. We also account for the (negligible) impact of measured beam systematic effects. We investigate the polarization rotation for the BICEP1 100 GHz and 150 GHz bands separately to investigate theoretical models that produce frequency-dependent cosmic birefringence. We find no evidence in the data supporting either of these models or Faraday rotation of the CMB polarization by the Milky Way galaxy's magnetic field. If we assume that there is no cosmic birefringence, we can use the TB and EB spectra to calibrate detector polarization orientations, thus reducing bias of the cosmological B-mode spectrum from leaked E-modes due to possible polarization orientation miscalibration. After applying this "self-calibration" process, we find that the upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio decreases slightly, from r < 0.70 to r < 0.65 at 95% confidence.

three-year↗
NASA NTRS2016

Improving Photometric Calibration of Meteor Video Camera Systems

We present the results of new calibration tests performed by the NASA Meteoroid Environment Oce (MEO) designed to help quantify and minimize systematic uncertainties in meteor photometry from video camera observations. These systematic uncertainties can be categorized by two main sources: an imperfect understanding of the linearity correction for the MEO's Watec 902H2 Ultimate video cameras and uncertainties in meteor magnitudes arising from transformations between the Watec camera's Sony EX-View HAD bandpass and the bandpasses used to determine reference star magnitudes. To address the rst point, we have measured the linearity response of the MEO's standard meteor video cameras using two independent laboratory tests on eight cameras. Our empirically determined linearity correction is critical for performing accurate photometry at low camera intensity levels. With regards to the second point, we have calculated synthetic magnitudes in the EX bandpass for reference stars. These synthetic magnitudes enable direct calculations of the meteor's photometric ux within the camera band-pass without requiring any assumptions of its spectral energy distribution. Systematic uncertainties in the synthetic magnitudes of individual reference stars are estimated at 0:20 mag, and are limited by the available spectral information in the reference catalogs. These two improvements allow for zero-points accurate to 0:05 􀀀 0:10 mag in both ltered and un ltered camera observations with no evidence for lingering systematics.

Ehlert, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improving Photometric Calibration of Meteor Video Camera Systems

We present the results of new calibration tests performed by the NASA Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) designed to help quantify and minimize systematic uncertainties in meteor photometry from video camera observations. These systematic uncertainties can be categorized by two main sources: an imperfect understanding of the linearity correction for the MEO's Watec 902H2 Ultimate video cameras and uncertainties in meteor magnitudes arising from transformations between the Watec camera's Sony EX-View HAD bandpass and the bandpasses used to determine reference star magnitudes. To address the first point, we have measured the linearity response of the MEO's standard meteor video cameras using two independent laboratory tests on eight cameras. Our empirically determined linearity correction is critical for performing accurate photometry at low camera intensity levels. With regards to the second point, we have calculated synthetic magnitudes in the EX bandpass for reference stars. These synthetic magnitudes enable direct calculations of the meteor's photometric flux within the camera bandpass without requiring any assumptions of its spectral energy distribution. Systematic uncertainties in the synthetic magnitudes of individual reference stars are estimated at approx. 0.20 mag, and are limited by the available spectral information in the reference catalogs. These two improvements allow for zero-points accurate to 0.05 - 0.10 mag in both filtered and unfiltered camera observations with no evidence for lingering systematics. These improvements are essential to accurately measuring photometric masses of individual meteors and source mass indexes.

Steven Ehlert↗
NASA NTRS2018

Comparisons of Bispectral and Polarimetric Retrievals of Marine Boundary Layer Cloud Microphysics: Case Studies Using a LES-Satellite Retrieval Simulator

Many passive remote-sensing techniques have been developed to retrieve cloud microphysical properties from satellite-based sensors, with the most common approaches being the bispectral and polarimetric techniques. These two vastly different retrieval techniques have been implemented for a variety of polar-orbiting and geostationary satellite platforms, providing global climatological data sets. Prior instrument comparison studies have shown that there are systematic differences between the droplet size retrieval products (effective radius) of bispectral (e.g., MODIS, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and polarimetric (e.g., POLDER, Polarization and Directionality of Earth's Reflectances) instruments. However, intercomparisons of airborne bispectral and polarimetric instruments have yielded results that do not appear to be systematically biased relative to one another. Diagnosing this discrepancy is complicated, because it is often difficult for instrument intercomparison studies to isolate differences between retrieval technique sensitivities and specific instrumental differences such as calibration and atmospheric correction. In addition to these technical differences the polarimetric retrieval is also sensitive to the dispersion of the droplet size distribution (effective variance), which could influence the interpretation of the droplet size retrieval. To avoid these instrument-dependent complications, this study makes use of a cloud remote-sensing retrieval simulator. Created by coupling a large-eddy simulation (LES) cloud model with a 1-D radiative transfer model, the simulator serves as a test bed for understanding differences between bispectral and polarimetric retrievals. With the help of this simulator we can not only compare the two techniques to one another (retrieval intercomparison) but also validate retrievals directly against the LES cloud properties. Using the satellite retrieval simulator, we are able to verify that at high spatial resolution (50 m) the bispectral and polarimetric retrievals are highly correlated with one another within expected observational uncertainties. The relatively small systematic biases at high spatial resolution can be attributed to different sensitivity limitations of the two retrievals. In contrast, a systematic difference between the two retrievals emerges at coarser resolution. This bias largely stems from differences related to sensitivity of the two retrievals to unresolved inhomogeneities in effective variance and optical thickness. The influence of coarse angular resolution is found to increase uncertainty in the polarimetric retrieval but generally maintains a constant mean value.

Miller, Daniel J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Comparisons of Bispectral and Polarimetric Retrievals of Marine Boundary Layer Cloud Microphysics: Case Studies Using a LES- Satellite Retrieval Simulator

Many passive remote-sensing techniques have been developed to retrieve cloud microphysical properties from satellite-based sensors, with the most common approaches being the bispectral and polarimetric techniques. These two vastly different retrieval techniques have been implemented for a variety of polar-orbiting and geostationary satellite platforms, providing global climatological data sets. Prior instrument comparison studies have shown that there are systematic differences between the droplet size retrieval products (effective radius) of bispectral (e.g., MODIS, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and polarimetric (e.g., POLDER, Polarization and Directionality of Earth's Reflectances) instruments. However, intercomparisons of airborne bispectral and polarimetric instruments have yielded results that do not appear to be systematically biased relative to one another. Diagnosing this discrepancy is complicated, because it is often difficult for instrument intercomparison studies to isolate differences between retrieval technique sensitivities and specific instrumental differences such as calibration and atmospheric correction. In addition to these technical differences the polarimetric retrieval is also sensitive to the dispersion of the droplet size distribution (effective variance), which could influence the interpretation of the droplet size retrieval. To avoid these instrument-dependent complications, this study makes use of a cloud remote-sensing retrieval simulator. Created by coupling a large-eddy simulation (LES) cloud model with a 1-D radiative transfer model, the simulator serves as a test bed for understanding differences between bispectral and polarimetric retrievals. With the help of this simulator we can not only compare the two techniques to one another (retrieval intercomparison) but also validate retrievals directly against the LES cloud properties. Using the satellite retrieval simulator, we are able to verify that at high spatial resolution (50m) the bispectral and polarimetric retrievals are highly correlated with one another within expected observational uncertainties. The relatively small systematic biases at high spatial resolution can be attributed to different sensitivity limitations of the two retrievals. In contrast, a systematic difference between the two retrievals emerges at coarser resolution. This bias largely stems from differences related to sensitivity of the two retrievals to unresolved inhomogeneities in effective variance and optical thickness. The influence of coarse angular resolution is found to increase uncertainty in the polarimetric retrieval but generally maintains a constant mean value.

Miller, Daniel J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Viability of Trajectory Analysis for Diagnosing Dynamical and Chemical Influences on Ozone Concentrations in the UTLS

The viability of trajectory analysis for diagnosing the interplay between chemistry and dynamics is investigated by comparing ozone mixing ratios modelled using air-parcel pathways to values observed along flight tracks during ATTREX (Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment). Trajectories are initiated at the locations of ozone observations and tracked backward in time to their sources at termini of backward trajectories. The modelled values of ozone utilize 3-dimensional analysis fields from WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) (a chemical-climate model with dynamical fields nudged towards MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis and Research Applications) reanalysis) and ERA-interim (product of ECMWF - the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) to determine source mixing ratios with chemical production and loss terms derived from the ozone chemistry used in WACCM. A statistical base of modelled ozone is constructed with 6 trajectory platforms (adiabatic, diabatic, and kinematic forced by ERA-interim and MERRA), two chemical models (WACCM chemistry and no chemistry), and 4 trajectory lengths (5, 10, 20, and 30 days). Linear regression is employed to separate systematic errors from random errors and to characterize the impact of source mixing ratios, path length, vertical motion, and chemistry on modelled ozone errors. Errors in the analysis ozone fields are large, if not dominant, contributors to model error. Random errors are particularly large for point-by-point comparisons, however averaging over 800 km (75 minutes) flight segments substantially reduces random error and exposes systematic errors. Of the two analysis ozone data sets, WACCM, which incorporates detailed chemistry, provides the smaller systematic errors while ERA-interim, which has crude chemistry but assimilates observational data, has the smaller random errors. Of the different trajectory platforms, adiabatic calculations produce the smaller random errors (irrespective of the use of chemistry) but both vertical motion and chemistry are required to optimally reduce systematic errors. These results suggest that meaningful analysis of dynamical and chemical interactions that control ozone mixing ratios are viable on spatial scales larger than a few reanalysis grid spaces, that errors in the analyzed ozone data sets are large but not prohibitively so, and that vertical velocities and heating rates from reanalysis data, while problematic, contain useful information [on the ozone concentrations in the UTLS (Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere)].

ozone↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Trilateration Scheme for Relative Positioning

We introduce a trilateration scheme that evaluates the 3-dimensional (3-D) relative position between a reference spacecraft and a target spacecraft using raw-range measurements from a distance baseline of known locations, which we call “anchors”. The anchors can be antennas of a ground-based network (e.g., Deep Space Network (DSN) or Near Earth Network (NEN) stations), or satellites of a spacebased network (e.g., global positioning system (GPS) or tracking and data relay satellite (TDRS)). We define raw-range as the range that includes all the systematic errors that occur during range measurements. A unique feature of this approach is that accurate relative position is derived from a “differencing function” of raw-range measurements of the reference spacecraft and target spacecraft, thereby eliminating most of the systematic errors, such as media effects, ephemeris errors, instrument delays, clock bias, etc. There can be an arbitrary number of target spacecraft, and relative positioning of target spacecraft with respect to the reference spacecraft can be done simultaneously. In this paper, we first assume an idealized system in which clocks on the reference and target spacecraft are synchronized, with clocks of the anchors synchronized as well. We develop a novel iterative algorithm that computes the relative position of the target spacecraft with respect to the reference spacecraft. We illustrate the relative positioning method using the scenario of a network of three ground stations (i.e., the anchors) at Goldstone, California, USA, Madrid, Spain, and Marlargue, Argentina tracking two spacecraft at geosynchronous orbit distance. We demonstrate that the algorithm converges to submeter accuracy in estimating the relative position, in the presence of random errors and systematic errors in raw-range measurements, and in the presence of angular errors in estimating the pointing vectors between the anchors and the reference spacecraft. Next, we relax the requirement of perfect time synchronization between spacecraft, and show that by using an additional anchor, one can estimate and remove the clock biases between the reference and target spacecraft. We add a ground station at Kourou to the above example of three ground stations of Goldstone, Madrid, and Marlargue, and demonstrate that the updated algorithm also converges to meter-level accuracy (submeter in some cases) in the presence of clock biases in addition to the random errors, systematic errors, and angular errors as shown in the above case. We compare this scheme with a similar trilateration scheme for relative positioning scheme first proposed by Montenbruck in 2002.

Cheung, Kar-Ming↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization of OCO-2 and ACOS-GOSAT biases and errors for flux estimates

We characterize the magnitude of seasonally and spatially varying biases in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) Version 8 (v8) and the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space (ACOS) Greenhouse Gas Observing SATellite (GOSAT) version 7.3 (v7.3) satellite CO2 retrievals by comparisons to measurements collected by the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) experiment, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) aircraft, and surface stations. Although the ACOS-GOSAT estimates of the column averaged carbon dioxide (CO2) dry air mole fraction (XCO2) have larger random errors than the OCO-2 XCO2 estimates, and the space-based estimates over land have larger random errors than those over ocean, the systematic errors are similar across both satellites and surface types, 0.6 ± 0.1 ppm. We find similar estimates of systematic error whether dynamic versus geometric coincidences or ESRL/DOE aircraft versus TCCON are used for validation (over land), once validation and co-location errors are accounted for. We also find that areas with sparse throughput of good quality data (due to quality flags and preprocessor selection) over land have ~double the error of regions of high-throughput of good quality data. We characterize both raw and bias-corrected results, finding that bias correction improves systematic errors by a factor of 2 for land observations and improves errors by ~0.2 ppm for ocean. We validate the lowermost tropospheric (LMT) product for OCO-2 and ACOS-GOSAT by comparison to aircraft and surface sites, finding systematic errors of ~1.1 ppm, while having 2-3 times the variability of XCO2. We characterize the time and distance scales of correlations for OCO-2 XCO2 errors, and find error correlations on scales of 0.3 degrees, 5-10 degrees, and 60 days. We find comparable scale lengths for the bias correction term. Assimilation of the OCO-2 bias correction term is used to estimate flux errors resulting from OCO-2 seasonal biases, finding annual flux errors on the order of 0.3 and 0.4 PgC/yr for Transcom-3 ocean and land regions, respectively.

Susan S Kulawik↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Crowd Sourcing Medical Data Collection Using Medical Students

OBJECTIVE We undertook an upgrade of the Evidence Library database of NASA HRP’s Integrated Medical Model, assessing 120 medical conditions which integrate with a novel probabilistic risk assessment (IMPACT) tool of medical risk and resource utilization for long duration exploration human spaceflight. This data collection process included a selection of these conditions crowd sourced over one year via three 4-week medical student electives at the University of Colorado School of Medicine (IDPT 8059 Space Medicine: Human Spaceflight Factors & Medical Risk Assessment). Students undertook a rapid systematic review of each medical condition, under close preceptors with backgrounds in clinical medicine, library science, epidemiology, biostatistics, and evidence-based medicine. As part of the elective, students also received instruction in core space medicine concepts, evidence based medicine and problem based learning sessions as a flight surgeon supporting a simulated Mars mission. METHODS The list of 120 medical conditions includes both common, terrestrial illness/injury (epistaxis, diverticulitis) as well as spaceflight-specific ones (space adaptation conditions, EVA-related injuries). A rapid systematic review process was developed that would allow students to find the data for determining disease incidence/prevalence, return to definitive care (often a surrogate such as hospitalization rates), loss of crew life, and treatment duration. Each data point required a tailored, specialized search process using different databases and corresponding specialized search filters. Databases were selected on their ability to provide high quality literature in an efficient manner and prioritized by their ability to provide graded evidence via a set rubrics specific to human spaceflight. Students were responsible for performing all literature searches and identifying the highest quality available evidence for each data point. Completed student data sheets underwent initial review by faculty preceptors followed by a secondary editing review by the ExMC Clinical Science Team. RESULTS Over the course of three electives, approximately 105 medical conditions were researched by students using spreadsheets with pre-crafted search strategies. Overall, this process was successful in allowing students to perform the preponderance of work to update incidence, treatment duration, return to definitive care, and loss of crew life data points. Students were successful in running searches, identifying the necessary data points within the literature, and determining the types of terrestrial data that most aligns with the astronaut population for successful completion of their tasks. Limitations included variable student experience with search methodologies [PubMed], differing values of evidence grading [best practice evidence based medicine vs. relevant to spaceflight], and students’ unfamiliarity with spaceflight specific conditions. CONCLUSION Finding the relevant literature for medical conditions in spaceflight within terrestrial databases in a systematic method is time consuming and not intuitive. However, the stepwise process that balanced sensitivity with specificity allowed for students to be highly successful in a short amount of time. Additionally, as the process was refined over the course of three electives, preceptors were better able to anticipate where students were likely to encounter barriers, which allowed the course to be adjusted to account for certain data points needing more time for completion. This replicable process may be an efficient way to accomplish rapid systematic reviews for a large volume of data in a short amount of time.

J Lemery↗
NASA NTRS2021

Uncertainty Analysis of the CE-12 Free-Jet Probe Calibration Facility

This paper presents methods and results of a detailed measurement uncertainty analysis thf at was performed for the Free Jet Calibration Facility (CE-12) located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Results for systematic uncertainty estimates in a number of fluid properties of the free jet flow are presented. Systematic uncertainty captures inaccuracies due to measurement process, calibration, installation effects or other similar sources which may introduce bias. MANTUS (Measurement Analysis Tool for Uncertainty in Systems) was used to quantify instrumentation uncertainty and engineering judgment was used to quantify other systematic uncertainty sources. The Monte Carlo method was used to propagate systematic uncertainties to determine the uncertainties of various calculated variables of interest.

CE-12↗
NASA NTRS2021

Cosmology with the Roman Space Telescope - Multiprobe Strategies

We simulate the scientific performance of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope High Latitude Survey (HLS) on dark energy and modified gravity. The 1.6-yr HLS Reference survey is currently envisioned to image 2000 deg2 in multiple bands to a depthof∼26.5 in Y, J, H and to cover the same area with slit-less spectroscopy beyond z=3. The combination of deep, multiband photometry and deep spectroscopy will allow scientists to measure the growth and geometry of the Universe through a variety of cosmological probes (e.g. weak lensing, galaxy clusters, galaxy clustering, BAO, Type Ia supernova) and, equally, it will allow an exquisite control of observational and astrophysical systematic effects. In this paper, we explore multiprobe strategies that can be implemented, given the telescope’s instrument capabilities. We model cosmological probes individually and jointly and account for correlated systematics and statistical uncertainties due to the higher order moments of the density field. We explore different levels of observational systematics for the HLS survey (photo-z and shear calibration) and ultimately run a joint likelihood analysis in N-dim parameter space. We find that the HLS reference survey alone can achieve a standard dark energy FoM of>300 when including all probes. This assumes no information from external data sets, we assume a flat universe however, and includes realistic assumptions for systematics. Our study of the HLS reference survey should be seen as part of a future community-driven effort to simulate and optimize the science return of the Roman Space Telescope.

Cosmological parameters↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High-precision predictions of properties of chemically disordered crystals

Multiple scattering theory (MST) combined with density functional theory (DFT) allows to predict properties of chemically disordered materials from the first principles. However, such predictions often suffer from the systematic errors, which depend on crystal geometry. Each computed property of a particular crystal structure typically has a relatively small random error and a larger systematic error. Cancellation of systematic errors allows more accurate predictions. We propose a computational methodology based on the subtraction of the systematic errors in MST. To exemplify it, we apply it to the precipitated alloys. Considering precipitation strengthening in Ni superalloys, we compute the relative enthalpies of the competing Ni3(Al,Ti)1 crystal structures with a chemical disorder on the Al+Ti sublattice. Such predicted composition-structure-property dependencies are useful for the guided design of the next-generation alloys with improved strength. Our predictions are validated by comparison with the results of other DFT methods (having a higher computational cost) and with experiment. We acknowledge funding of the guided design of stronger superalloys for airspace by NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) via Transformational Tools and Technologies (TTT) Project.

Computational↗
NASA NTRS2022

High-precision predictions of properties of chemically disordered crystals

Multiple scattering theory (MST) combined with density functional theory (DFT) allows to predict properties of chemically disordered materials from the first principles. However, such predictions often suffer from the systematic errors, which depend on crystal geometry. Each computed property of a particular crystal structure typically has a relatively small random error and a larger systematic error. Cancellation of systematic errors allows more accurate predictions. We propose a computational methodology based on the subtraction of the systematic errors in MST. To exemplify it, we apply it to the precipitated alloys. Considering precipitation strengthening in Ni superalloys, we compute the relative enthalpies of the competing Ni_3(Al_{1-x}Ti_x)_1 crystal structures with a chemical disorder on the Al+Ti sublattice. Such predicted composition-structure-property dependencies are useful for the guided design of the next-generation alloys with improved strength. Our predictions are validated by comparison with the results of other DFT methods (having a higher computational cost) and with experiment.

density functional theory↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Examination of L-Band Brightness Temperature Forecasts in the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Analysis

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission [4] has been providing L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave brightness temperature (Tb) observations since April 2015. By assimilating the Tb observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model [5] using a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office generates the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, which provides global, 3-hourly, 9-km resolution estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture with ~2.5-day latency for use in research and applications [6]. The L4_SM product also includes estimates of soil temperature, land surface fluxes, and assimilation diagnostics such as the model forecast and observed Tb values [7]. The output from the L4_SM system is routinely monitored by the L4_SM team. Such monitoring provides valuable information; instances of unusually large Tb observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals can indicate events during which soil moisture conditions are poorly described in the land modeling system [7,8]. For example, repeated occurrences of very large Tb O-F values in central Australia were traced back to deficiencies in the gauge-based precipitation product used in the land modeling system through L4_SM Version 5; this discovery prompted the use, beginning in Version 6, of satellite- and gauge-based precipitation observations outside of North America [9]. Recently, a statistical analysis of the Tb O-F residuals revealed systematic errors in the “tau-omega” L-band radiative transfer model that converts the land-model simulated soil moisture and temperature into the forecast Tb prior to the L4_SM analysis. The L4_SM analysis is built on the ensemble Kalman filter and assumes unbiased forecast errors. The presence of systematic Tb forecast errors could thus adversely impact the quality of the analyzed soil moisture. In this paper, we examine the Tb O-F residuals of the latest Version 7 L4_SM data (Science Version ID Vv7030 and Vv7032) [10,11,12]. In the L4_SM Version 7 algorithm, key parameters of the L-band radiative transfer model, including soil roughness, scattering albedo, and a (seasonally varying) climatology of vegetation opacity, are obtained from the SMAP Level-2 Radiometer retrieval product (Version 5) [1]. Additionally, we also use ground measurements of surface soil moisture and soil temperature from the SMAP core validation sites as in situ reference of soil conditions [2,3]. As part of the L4_SM system calibration, the seasonally-varying bias between the model forecast Tb and the observed values is removed prior to the assimilation of the SMAP Tb observations [7]. That is, the L4_SM system is designed to only correct errors in synoptic-scale and interannual variations from the long-term mean seasonal cycle while maintaining the model’s (potentially erroneous) climatology. The Tb O-F residuals examined here are thus computed using SMAP Tb observations after they are rescaled to the mean seasonal cycle of Tb from the modeling system without SMAP data assimilation. Consequently, the long-term average of the Tb O-F residuals has a global mean of only 0.13 K and locally small values, ranging from -1 to 3 K. Despite the small time-average values of the Tb O-F residuals, the model forecast Tb was nevertheless found to exhibit undesirable systematic errors. At some locations, the time-average Tb O-F values strongly depend on surface soil moisture (SM). At the Yanco SMAP core validation site, for example, the Tb O-F residuals typically range from 5 to 15 K under dry soil moisture conditions (SM < 0.15 m3 m-3) yet are predominantly negative under wet soil moisture conditions (SM > 0.25 m3 m-3), with values ranging from 0 to -40 K. This results in soil moisture analysis increments that persistently make the soil drier under dry SM conditions and persistently make the soil wetter under wet SM conditions, suggesting an error in the dynamic range of the simulated Tb, soil moisture or soil temperature. In this paper, we describe the higher-order systematic Tb forecast errors in more detail, examine their impact on the L4_SM product quality, and explore potential avenues to further improve the L4_SM algorithm.

Rolf Reichle↗