Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Systematic error”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 631 records · Page 35

Mobile VLBI and GPS measurement of vertical crustal motion

Mobile Very Long Base Interferometry (VLBI) and Global Positioning System (GPS) geodetic measurements have many error sources in common. Calibration of the effects of water vapor on signal transmission through the atmosphere, however, remains the primary limitation to the accuracy of vertical crustal motion measurements made by either technique. The two primary methods of water vapor calibration currently in use for mobile VLBI baseline measurements were evaluated: radiometric measurements of the sky brightness near the 22 GHz emission line of free water molecules and surface meteorological measurements used as input to an atmospheric model. Based upon a limited set of 9 baselines, it is shown that calibrating VLBI data with water vapor radiometer measurements provides a significantly better fit to the theoretical decay model than calibrating the same data with surface meteorological measurements. The effect of estimating a systematic error in the surface meteorological calibration is shown to improve the consistency of the vertical baseline components obtained by the two calibration methods. A detailed error model for the vertical baseline components obtained indicates current mobile VLBI technology should allow accuracies of order 3 cm with WVR calibration and 10 cm when surface meteorological calibration is used.

Kroger, P. M.↗

Mobile very long baseline interferometry and Global Positioning System measurement of vertical crustal motion

Mobile Very Long Base Interferometry (VLBI) and Global Positioning System (GPS) geodetic measurements have many error sources in common. Calibration of the effects of water vapor on signal transmission through the atmosphere, however, remains the primary limitation to the accuracy of vertical crustal motion measurements made by either technique. The two primary methods of water vapor calibration currently in use for mobile VLBI baseline measurements were evaluated: radiometric measurements of the sky brightness near the 22 GHz emission line of free water molecules and surface meteorological measurements used as input to an atmospheric model. Based upon a limited set of 9 baselines, it is shown that calibrating VLBI data with water vapor radiometer measurements provides a significantly better fit to the theoretical decay model than calibrating the same data with surface meteorological measurements. The effect of estimating a systematic error in the surface meteorological calibration is shown to improve the consistency of the vertical baseline components obtained by the two calibration methods. A detailed error model for the vertical baseline components obtained indicates current mobile VLBI technology should allow accuracies of order 3 cm with WVR calibration and 10 cm when surface meteorological calibration is used.

Kroger, Peter M.↗

SU-E-T-288: Dose Volume Population Histogram (DVPH): A New Method to Evaluate Intensity Modulated Proton Therapy Plans With Geometrical Uncertainties

Purpose: In Proton therapy, especially intensity modulated proton therapy(IMPT), the dose distribution shape is very sensitive to errors due to sharp dose gradients at the Bragg peaks. The concept of the conventional margin is based on the assumption that dose distribution is shifted rather than deformed due to geometrical uncertainties. The goal of this study is to access the validity of the margin concept as well as propose a new approach using Dose Volume Population Histogram (DVPH) in evaluating IMPT plans. Methods: For a prostate case, an intensity modulated proton therapy is optimized based on the conventional PTV based objective function. The plan is evaluated based on the PTV DVH and CTV DVPH (dose volume population histogram) which explicitly taking into account geometric uncertainties. The DVPH is calculated based on 2197 dose distributions at different CTV possible positions for both random and systematic errors. The DVPH with a 90% confidence level is used for the comparison. Results: The minimum dose of the CTV DVPH with a 90% confidence level is only about 18% of the prescribed dose, while the minimum dose of the PTV is 95%. For bladder DVHs, the D50 and D35 is 26% and 30%, compared to 65% and 70% of the prescribed dose from the bladder DVPH with 90% confidence level. Conclusion: The results showed that the PTV concept for ensuring the prescribed dose actually delivered to the CTV is invalid in proton therapy. The good PTV DVH might Result in an underdose to the target and should not be used for IMPT optimization. For OARs, the conventional evaluation approach underestimates dose volume end points. The new concept DVPH has been proved to provide a more accurate DVH evaluation in proton therapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

TRMM Data Assimilation at NASA

Current global analyses contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation, evaporation, and related cloud and moisture in the tropics. Work has been underway at NASA's Data Assimilation Office to explore the use of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I)-derived rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) data in global data assimilation to directly constrain these hydrological parameters. We found that assimilating these data types improves not only the precipitation and moisture estimates but also key climate parameters directly linked to convection such as the outgoing longwave radiation, clouds, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. We will present results showing that assimilating TRMM and SSM/I 6-hour averaged rain rates and TPW estimates significantly reduces the state-dependent systematic errors in assimilated products. Specifically, rainfall assimilation improves cloud and latent heating distributions, which, in turn, improves the cloudy-sky radiation and the large-scale circulation, while TPW assimilation reduces moisture biases to improve radiation in clear-sky regions. Rainfall and TPW assimilation also improves tropical forecasts beyond I day.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

The Disk Wind in the Rapidly Spinning Stellar-mass Black Hole 4U 1630-472 Observed with NuSTAR

We present an analysis of a short NuSTAR observation of the stellar-mass black hole and low-mass X-ray binary 4U 1630−472. Reflection from the inner accretion disk is clearly detected for the first time in this source, owing to the sensitivity of NuSTAR. With fits to the reflection spectrum, we find evidence for a rapidly spinning black hole, a∗ = 0.985(+0.005/−0.014) (1 sigma statistical errors). However, archival data show that the source has relatively low radio luminosity. Recently claimed relationships between jet power and black hole spin would predict either a lower spin or a higher peak radio luminosity. We also report the clear detection of an absorption feature at 7.03 +/- 0.03 keV, likely signaling a disk wind. If this line arises in dense, moderately ionized gas (log xi = 3.6(+0.2/−0.3) and is dominated by He-like Fe xxv, the wind has a velocity of v/c = 0.043(+0.002/−0.007) (12900(+600/−2100) km s(exp −1)). If the line is instead associated with a more highly ionized gas (log xi = 6.1(+0.7/−0.6)), and is dominated by Fe xxvi, evidence of a blueshift is only marginal, after taking systematic errors into account. Our analysis suggests the ionized wind may be launched within 200-1100 Rg, and may be magnetically driven.

accretion disks↗

A new method for detecting velocity shifts and distortions between optical spectra

Recent quasar spectroscopy from the Very Large Telescope (VLT) and Keck suggests that fundamental constants may not actually be constant. To better confirm or refute this result, systematic errors between telescopes must be minimized. We present a new method to directly compare spectra of the same object and measure any velocity shifts between them. This method allows for the discovery of wavelength-dependent velocity shifts between spectra, i.e., velocity distortions, that could produce spurious detections of cosmological variations in fundamental constants. This 'direct comparison' method has several advantages over alternative techniques: it is model-independent (cf. line-fitting approaches), blind, in that spectral features do not need to be identified beforehand, and it produces meaningful uncertainty estimates for the velocity shift measurements. In particular, we demonstrate that, when comparing echelle-resolution spectra with unresolved absorption features, the uncertainty estimates are reliable for signal-to-noise ratios ≳7 per pixel. We apply this method to spectra of quasar J2123–0050 observed with Keck and the VLT and find no significant distortions over long wavelength ranges (∼1050 Å) greater than ≈180 m s{sup –1}. We also find no evidence for systematic velocity distortions within echelle orders greater than 500 m s{sup –1}. Moreover, previous constraints on cosmological variations in the proton-electron mass ratio should not have been affected by velocity distortions in these spectra by more than 4.0 ± 4.2 parts per million. This technique may also find application in measuring stellar radial velocities in search of extra-solar planets and attempts to directly observe the expansion history of the universe using quasar absorption spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantitative capabilities of STXM to measure spatially resolved organic volume fractions of mixed organic/inorganic particles

Scanning transmission X-ray microscopy coupled with near-edge X-ray absorption and fine structure (STXM-NEXAFS) spectroscopy can be used to characterize the morphology and composition of aerosol particles. Here, two inorganic/organic systems are used to validate the calculation of organic volume fraction (OVF) and determine the level of associated error by using carbon K-edge STXM data at 278, 285.4, 288.6, and 320 eV. Using the mixture of sodium chloride and sucrose as one system and ammonium sulfate and sucrose as another, three solutions were made with 10:1, 1:1, and 1:10 mass ratios (inorganic to organic). The OVFs of the organic-rich aerosols of both systems deviated from the bulk OVF by less than 1%, while the inorganic-rich aerosols deviated by approximately 1 %. Aerosols from the equal mass mixture deviated more (about 4 %) due to thick inorganic regions exceeding the linear range of Beer's law. These calculations were performed after checking the data for poor image alignment, defocusing issues, and particles too thick to be analyzed. The potential for systematic error in the OVF calculation was also tested by assuming the incorrect composition. There is a small (about 0.5 %) OVF difference if the organic is erroneously assumed to be adipic acid rather than the known organic, sucrose. A much larger difference (up to 25 %) is seen if sodium chloride is assumed instead of ammonium sulfate. These results show that the OVF calculations are fairly insensitive to the organic while being much more sensitive to the choice of inorganic.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Determining the bubble nucleation efficiency of low-energy nuclear recoils in superheated C$_3$F$_8$ dark matter detectors

The bubble nucleation efficiency of low-energy nuclear recoils in superheated liquids plays a crucial role in interpreting results from direct searches for weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) dark matter. The PICO Collaboration presents the results of the efficiencies for bubble nucleation from carbon and fluorine recoils in superheated C$_3$F$_8$ from calibration data taken with 5 distinct neutron spectra at various thermodynamic thresholds ranging from 2.1 keV to 3.9 keV. Instead of assuming any particular functional forms for the nuclear recoil efficiency, a generalized piecewise linear model is proposed with systematic errors included as nuisance parameters to minimize model-introduced uncertainties. A Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) routine is applied to sample the nuclear recoil efficiency for fluorine and carbon at 2.45 keV and 3.29 keV thermodynamic thresholds simultaneously. The nucleation efficiency for fluorine was found to be $\geq 50\, \%$ for nuclear recoils of 3.3 keV (3.7 keV) at a thermodynamic Seitz threshold of 2.45 keV (3.29 keV), and for carbon the efficiency was found to be $\geq 50\, \%$ for recoils of 10.6 keV (11.1 keV) at a threshold of 2.45 keV (3.29 keV). Simulated data sets are used to calculate a p-value for the fit, confirming that the model used is compatible with the data. The fit paradigm is also assessed for potential systematic biases, which although small, are corrected for. Additional steps are performed to calculate the expected interaction rates of WIMPs in the PICO-60 detector, a requirement for calculating WIMP exclusion limits.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

THE DISK WIND IN THE RAPIDLY SPINNING STELLAR-MASS BLACK HOLE 4U 1630–472 OBSERVED WITH NuSTAR

We present an analysis of a short NuSTAR observation of the stellar-mass black hole and low-mass X-ray binary 4U 1630–472. Reflection from the inner accretion disk is clearly detected for the first time in this source, owing to the sensitivity of NuSTAR. With fits to the reflection spectrum, we find evidence for a rapidly spinning black hole, a{sub ∗}=0.985{sub −0.014}{sup +0.005} (1σ statistical errors). However, archival data show that the source has relatively low radio luminosity. Recently claimed relationships between jet power and black hole spin would predict either a lower spin or a higher peak radio luminosity. We also report the clear detection of an absorption feature at 7.03 ± 0.03 keV, likely signaling a disk wind. If this line arises in dense, moderately ionized gas (log ξ=3.6{sub −0.3}{sup +0.2}) and is dominated by He-like Fe XXV, the wind has a velocity of v/c=0.043{sub −0.007}{sup +0.002} (12900{sub −2100}{sup +600} km s{sup –1}). If the line is instead associated with a more highly ionized gas (log ξ=6.1{sub −0.6}{sup +0.7}), and is dominated by Fe XXVI, evidence of a blueshift is only marginal, after taking systematic errors into account. Our analysis suggests the ionized wind may be launched within 200-1100 Rg, and may be magnetically driven.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Non-Gaussian Ensemble Filtering and Adaptive Inflation for Soil Moisture Data Assimilation

The rank histogram filter (RHF) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) are assessed for soil moisture estimation using perfect model (identical twin) synthetic data assimilation experiments. The primary motivation is to gauge the impact on analysis quality attributable to the consideration of non-Gaussian forecast error distributions. Using the NASA Catchment land surface model, the two filters are compared at 18 globally distributed single-catchment locations for a 10-yr experiment period. It is shown that both filters yield adequate estimates of soil moisture, with the RHF having a small but significant performance advantage. Most notably, the RHF consistently increases the normalized information contribution (NIC) score of the mean absolute bias by 0.05 over that of the EnKF for surface, root-zone, and profile soil moisture. The RHF also increases the NIC score for the anomaly correlation of surface soil moisture by 0.02 over that of the EnKF (at a 5% significance level). Results additionally demonstrate that the performance of both filters is somewhat improved when the ensemble priors are adaptively inflated to offset the negative effects of systematic errors.

Rolf Reichle↗

Kepler Instrument Performance: An In-Flight Update

The Kepler Mission is designed to detect the 80 parts per million (ppm) signal from an Earth-Sun equivalent transit. Such precision requires superb instrument stability on time scales up to 2 days and systematic error removal to better than 20 ppm. The sole scientic instrument is the Photometer, a 0.95 m aperture Schmidt telescope that feeds the 94.6 million pixel CCD detector array, which contains both Science and Fine Guidance Sensor (FGS) CCDs. Since Kepler's launch in March 2009, we have been using the commissioning and science operations data to characterize the instrument and monitor its performance. We find that the in-flight detector properties of the focal plane, including bias levels, read noise, gain, linearity, saturation, FGS to Science crosstalk,and video crosstalk between Science CCDs, are essentially unchanged from their pre-launch values. Kepler'sunprecedented sensitivity and stability in space have allowed us to measure both short- and long- term effects from cosmic rays, see interactions of previously known image artifacts with starlight, and uncover several unexpected systematics that affect photometric precision. Based on these results, we expect to attain Kepler's planned photometric precision over 90% of the field of view.

CCD↗

An error analysis of the recovery capability of the relative sea-surface profile over the Puerto Rican trench from multi-station and ship tracking of GEOS-2

Error analyses were performed to examine the height error in a relative sea-surface profile as determined by a combination of land-based multistation C-band radars and optical lasers and one ship-based radar tracking the GEOS 2 satellite. It was shown that two relative profiles can be obtained: one using available south-to-north passes of the satellite and one using available north-to-south type passes. An analysis of multi-station tracking capability determined that only Antigua and Grand Turk radars are required to provide satisfactory orbits for south-to-north type satellite passes, while a combination of Merritt Island, Bermuda, and Wallops radars provide secondary orbits for north-to-south passes. Analysis of ship tracking capabilities shows that high elevation single pass range-only solutions are necessary to give only moderate sensitivity to systematic error effects.

Stanley, H. R.↗

Errors in Sounding of the Atmosphere Using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) Kinetic Temperature Caused by Non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium Model Parameters

The vast set of near global and continuous atmospheric measurements made by the SABER instrument since 2002, including daytime and nighttime kinetic temperature (T(sub k)) from 20 to 105 km, is available to the scientific community. The temperature is retrieved from SABER measurements of the atmospheric 15 micron CO2 limb emission. This emission separates from local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) conditions in the rarefied mesosphere and thermosphere, making it necessary to consider the CO2 vibrational state non-LTE populations in the retrieval algorithm above 70 km. Those populations depend on kinetic parameters describing the rate at which energy exchange between atmospheric molecules take place, but some of these collisional rates are not well known. We consider current uncertainties in the rates of quenching of CO2 (v2 ) by N2 , O2 and O, and the CO2 (v2 ) vibrational-vibrational exchange to estimate their impact on SABER T(sub k) for different atmospheric conditions. The T(sub k) is more sensitive to the uncertainty in the latter two and their effects depend on altitude. The T(sub k) combined systematic error due to non-LTE kinetic parameters does not exceed +/- 1.5 K below 95 km and +/- 4-5 K at 100 km for most latitudes and seasons (except for polar summer) if the Tk profile does not have pronounced vertical structure. The error is +/- 3 K at 80 km, +/- 6 K at 84 km and +/- 18 K at 100 km under the less favourable polar summer conditions. For strong temperature inversion layers, the errors reach +/- 3 K at 82 km and +/- 8 K at 90 km. This particularly affects tide amplitude estimates, with errors of up to +/- 3 K.

Garcia-Comas, Maya↗

The Badhwar-O'Neill 2020 Model

The Badhwar-O'Neill (BON) model has been used for some time to describe the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environment encountered in deep space by astronauts and sensitive electronics. The most recent version of the model, BON2014, was calibrated to available measurements to reduce model errors for particles and energies of significance to astronaut exposure. Although subsequent studies showed the model to be reasonably accurate for such applications, modifications to the sunspot number (SSN) classification system and a large number of new high precision measurements suggested the need to develop an improved and more capable model. In this work, the BON2020 model is described. The new model relies on daily integral flux from the Advanced Composition Explorer Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (ACE/CRIS) to describe solar activity. For time periods not covered by ACE/CRIS, the updated international SSN database is used. Parameters in the new model are calibrated to available data, which includes the new Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02) and Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) high-precision measurements. It is found that the BON2020 model is a significant improvement over BON2014. Systematic errors associated with BON2014 have been removed. The average relative error of the BON2020 model compared to all available measurements is found to be <1%, and BON2020 is found to be within ±15% of a large fraction of the available measurements (26,269 of 27,646 → 95%).

Slaba, Tony C.↗

Systematic problems with using dark matter simulations to model stellar halos

The limits of available computing power have forced models for the structure of stellar halos to adopt one or both of the following simplifying assumptions: (1) stellar mass can be 'painted' onto dark matter (DM) particles in progenitor satellites; (2) pure DM simulations that do not form a luminous galaxy can be used. We estimate the magnitude of the systematic errors introduced by these assumptions using a controlled set of stellar halo models where we independently vary whether we look at star particles or painted DM particles, and whether we use a simulation in which a baryonic disk galaxy forms or a matching pure DM simulation that does not form a baryonic disk. We find that the 'painting' simplification reduces the halo concentration and internal structure, predominantly because painted DM particles have different kinematics from star particles even when both are buried deep in the potential well of the satellite. The simplification of using pure DM simulations reduces the concentration further, but increases the internal structure, and results in a more prolate stellar halo. These differences can be a factor of 1.5-7 in concentration (as measured by the half-mass radius) and 2-7 in internal density structure. Given this level of systematic uncertainty, one should be wary of overinterpreting differences between observations and the current generation of stellar halo models based on DM-only simulations when such differences are less than an order of magnitude.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Badhwar-O'Neill 2020 Model

The Badhwar-O’Neill (BON) model has been used for some time to describe the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environment encountered in deep space by astronauts and sensitive electronics. The most recent version of the model, BON2014, was calibrated to available measurements to reduce model errors for particles and energies of significance to astronaut exposure. Although subsequent studies showed the model to be reasonably accurate for such applications, modifications to the sunspot number (SSN) classification system and a large number of new high-precision measurements suggested the need to develop an improved and more capable model. In this work, the BON2020 model is described. The new model relies on daily integral flux from the Advanced Composition Explorer Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (ACE/CRIS) to describe solar activity. For time periods not covered by ACE/CRIS, the updated international SSN database is used. Parameters in the new model are calibrated to available data, which includes the new Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02) and Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) high-precision measurements. It is found that the BON2020 model is a significant improvement over BON2014. Systematic errors associated with BON2014 have been removed. The average relative error of the BON2020 model compared to all available measurements is found to be <1%, and BON2020 is found to be within +15% of a large fraction of the available measurements (26,269 of 27,646  95%.

T C Slaba↗

Development of Algorithms and Error Analyses for the Short Baseline Lightning Detection and Ranging System

NASA, at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), developed and operates a unique high-precision lightning location system to provide lightning-related weather warnings. These warnings are used to stop lightning- sensitive operations such as space vehicle launches and ground operations where equipment and personnel are at risk. The data is provided to the Range Weather Operations (45th Weather Squadron, U.S. Air Force) where it is used with other meteorological data to issue weather advisories and warnings for Cape Canaveral Air Station and KSC operations. This system, called Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR), provides users with a graphical display in three dimensions of 66 megahertz radio frequency events generated by lightning processes. The locations of these events provide a sound basis for the prediction of lightning hazards. This document provides the basis for the design approach and data analysis for a system of radio frequency receivers to provide azimuth and elevation data for lightning pulses detected simultaneously by the LDAR system. The intent is for this direction-finding system to correct and augment the data provided by LDAR and, thereby, increase the rate of valid data and to correct or discard any invalid data. This document develops the necessary equations and algorithms, identifies sources of systematic errors and means to correct them, and analyzes the algorithms for random error. This data analysis approach is not found in the existing literature and was developed to facilitate the operation of this Short Baseline LDAR (SBLDAR). These algorithms may also be useful for other direction-finding systems using radio pulses or ultrasonic pulse data.

Starr, Stanley O.↗

Spacecraft-spacecraft very long baseline interferometry for planetary approach navigation

The study presents an error budget for Delta differential one-way range (Delta-DOR) measurements between two spacecraft. Such observations, made between a planetary orbiter (or lander) and another spacecraft approaching that planet, would provide a powerful target-relative angular tracking data type for approach navigation. Accuracies of about 5 nrad should be possible for a pair of X-band spacecraft incorporating 40-MHz DOR tone spacings, while accuracies approaching 1 nrad will be possible if the spacecraft incorporate Ka-band downlinks with DOR tone spacings of order 250 MHz. Operational advantages of this data type are discussed, and ground system requirements needed to enable S/C-S/C Delta-DOR observations are outlined. A covariance analysis is presented to examine the potential navigation improvement for this scenario. The results show factors of 2-3 improvement in spacecraft targeting over conventional Doppler, range, and quasar-relative VLBI, along with reduced sensitivity to ephemeris uncertainty and other systematic errors.

Edwards, Charles D., Jr.↗