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DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear safety Enhanced: A Deep dive into current and future RAVEN applications

As the horizon of nuclear energy expands with the advent of small modular reactors, IV generation reactors, and fusion reactors, there is a growing perspective that the licensing process could benefit from a more comprehensive approach. Moving beyond traditional deterministic and PRA analysis might pave the way for a novel safety analysis paradigm propelled by the increasing computational power at our disposal. This paper explores different methodologies that can improve the outcomes of nuclear safety analysis. These range from uncertainty quantification techniques, aimed at enhancing the precision of safety margins, to deploying dynamic event trees by driving system code simulations, capturing the potential evolutions of severe accidents. These methodologies introduce innovative dimensions to safety analysis, considering the consequences of postulated events and the dynamics of accident sequences. However, they also bring forth challenges, especially in managing the complexity and sheer volume of potential scenarios. The paper touches upon some strategies to counter these challenges, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and continuous evolution in the face of emerging nuclear safety concerns. Additionally, the paper sheds light on the need for advanced tools to apply these methodologies. Among these tools is RAVEN, an open-source software designed for parametric and probabilistic analyses. Its core components, including distribution, sampler, and reduced order model, enable various applications, from risk assessment and mitigation to dynamic learning and plant control logic simulations.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Benchmark Modeling and Simulation of the FFTF LOFWOS Test #13 Using SAM

The Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) was a 400 MW thermal powered, oxide-fueled, liquid sodium cooled test reactor, built to assist development and testing of advanced fuels and materials for fast breeder reactors. In July 1986, a series of unprotected Loss of Flow Without Scram (LOFWOS) transients were performed in FFTF as part of the Passive Safety Testing (PST) program. The LOFWOS Test #13, which was initiated at 50% power and 100% flow with the pump pony motors left off, has been chosen as a benchmark case by IAEA to support collaborative efforts within international partnerships on the validation of simulation tools and models in the area of sodium fast reactor passive safety in an IAEA Coordinated Research Project (CRP), launched in October 2018. The System Analysis Module (SAM) is an advanced and modern system analysis tool under development at Argonne National Laboratory for advanced non-LWR safety analysis. It utilizes the object-oriented application framework MOOSE to leverage the modern software environment and advanced numerical methods. The capabilities of SAM are being extended to enable the transient modeling, analysis, and design of various advanced nuclear reactor systems. To participate the IAEA CRP and enhance the SAM validation base for advanced reactor transient safety analysis, benchmark simulations of the FFTF LOFWOS Test #13 are performed using the SAM code. In this first phase of the validation effort, the thermal-hydraulic behavior of the reactor system is the focus and the reactor kinetics is not considered in the SAM FFTF model. Instead, the results of Argonne’s neutronics calculations are directly used, including the power shape of the active core region and the power history during the transient. The simulation results of FFTF at steady state agreed well with the measured data from the test. During the transient, reasonably good agreement were also obtained. Future work to improve the model will focus on introducing the reactivity predictions into the model, as well as better understanding or resolving the current discrepancies with the measured data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Safety evaluation of connected and automated vehicles in mixed traffic with conventional vehicles at intersections

Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) can potentially improve the performance of the transportation system by reducing human errors. This paper investigates the safety impact of CAVs in a mixed traffic with conventional vehicles at intersections. Analyzing real-world AV crashes in California revealed that rear-end crashes at intersections are the dominant crash type. Therefore, to enhance our understanding of the future interactions between human-driven vehicles with CAVs at intersections, a simulation framework was developed to model the mixed traffic environment of Automated Vehicles (AV), cooperative AVs, and conventional human-driven vehicles. In order to model AVs driving behavior, Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) and cooperative ACC (CACC) models are utilized. Particularly, this study explores system improvements due to automation and connectivity across varying CAV market penetration scenarios. ACC and CACC car following models are used to mimic the behavior of AVs and cooperative AVs. Real-world connected vehicle data are utilized to modify and tune the acceleration/deceleration regimes of the Wiedemann model. Next, the driving volatility concept capturing variability in vehicle speeds was utilized to calibrate the simulation to represent the safety performance of a real-world environment. Two surrogate safety measures are used to evaluate the safety performance of a representative intersection under different market penetration rate of CAVs: the number of longitudinal conflicts and driving volatility. At low levels of ACC market penetration, the safety improvements were found to be marginal, but safety improved substantially with more than 40% ACC penetration. Additional safety improvements can be achieved more quickly through the addition of cooperation and connectivity through CACC. Furthermore, ACC/CACC vehicles were found to improve mobility performance in terms of average speed and travel time at intersections.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Incident Energy of Arcs in Photovoltaic DC Systems: Comparison Between Calculated and Experimental Data

Solar Photovoltaic (PV) systems have permeated the energy generation world at a very high rate, some of the safety codes and standards are still lagging in accurately assessing the hazards and risks associated with PV array arcing energies. Safety professionals and maintenance workers using NFPA 70E have utilized the Doan, Stokes & Oppenlander or Enrique models, meant to determine arc energies in DC power systems using the maximum power method. These methods may lead to an overestimate of energy available in PV systems during a fault. Since PV modules/arrays are non-linear, current limited DC devices, some of these calculation methods may not accurately predict fault energy. This paper will validate current arc energy models for PV systems by comparing experimental and calculated data. Additionally, this data will help modify the current NFPA 70E models related to smaller solar arrays. Understanding where the real safety threshold for DC arc flash in PV systems exists will help maintenance and safety professionals better prepare for a variety of work related activities. This paper will analyze real arc data taken for PV systems <1000VDC and <60amps and compare this to the calculated incident energy models, to include 70E. Thus, using these comparisons, it may be possible to reduce the safety hazard severity and thus relax the PPE requirements for installation and maintenance crews.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Safety Functions and Features, Events and Processes for the E-Area Performance Assessment

The DOE Technical Standard, “Disposal Authorization Statement and Tank Closure Documentation,” (DOE 2017) recommends the use of safety functions and features, events and processes (FEPs) to support development of conceptual models and identification of scenarios to be considered in a performance assessment (PA). The FEP process provides a means to describe how a PA considers and addresses the factors that could influence the performance of key barriers. Understanding the roles of barriers in terms of limiting migration helps to focus on how changes in the system could lead to a situation where those roles cannot be fulfilled and there is the potential for compromised performance. The FEPs screening and review process was used to identify FEPs that are relevant for the EArea Low-Level Waste Facility (LLWF) and specifically those FEPs that could have a detrimental impact on the effectiveness of a given safety function. For this PA, a default list of FEPs developed at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA 2004) and an approach implemented for PAs at the Hanford and Idaho sites (Mehta et al. 2016, DOE-ID 2019) are used to identify processes and events that could influence the effectiveness of a given safety function for the E-Area LLWF (e.g., subsidence can impact the safety function of the cover system and lead to increased infiltration). The Hanford and Idaho PAs represent two of the most recent applications of this approach. The PA evaluates the potential impacts of changes in performance of different features of the system and demonstrates that the safety functions represent multiple and redundant barriers. Barrier analyses, assuming a safety function is not present, also test the robustness of the system in the event of the loss of one or more safety functions. Such evaluations also support a qualitative illustration of the concept of defense in depth. The safety concept for closure of the E-Area LLWF (generically referred to as “E-Area”) encompasses a variety of different features (i.e., administrative controls, natural site features, and engineered barriers) that reduce the potential impacts on human health and the environment from the residual waste that will remain after closure. These features can be represented as a collection of safety functions acting independently and as a system to provide for overall safety. In some applications, there have been attempts to assign numerical expectations to specific safety functions, but that is not the intent in this case. The concept of safety functions is used more qualitatively in two ways for this PA: 1. To illustrate the robustness of the E-Area design, operational practices and closure approach by documenting features that are and are not credited in different modeling cases. 2. To identify the roles of the different features and potential processes and events that could compromise the performance of safety features and need to be considered when developing the modeling approach. This report addresses both safety functions and FEPs for the E-Area PA.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Safety Assurance of Software and Machine Learning Development for Nuclear Instrumentation and Controls

Digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems monitor and control parameters in nuclear power plants. Ensuring their safety is a critical part of ensuring overall plant safety. Nuclear power plant licensing generates thousands of safety documents that could be organized more effectively using a safety assurance case (SAC). We conducted a literature survey of SACs and created a SAC framework for DI&C software using Goal Structuring Notation (GSN). This framework focuses on four software development processes: management & assurance, pre-developed software (PDS) qualification, the Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC), and the Machine Learning Development Life Cycle (MLDLC). We organized our framework using a novel level structure that can be applied to other SACs to improve their clarity. Finally, we demonstrate how our framework can be incorporated as part of a SAC for a larger reactor system.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mitigating Battery Cell Failure: Role of Ag‐Nanoparticle Fillers in Solid Electrolyte Dendrite Suppression

Abstract The development of solid‐state batteries (SSBs) with lithium Li metal anodes holds significant promise for enhancing the energy density and safety of next‐generation energy storage systems. However, their commercialization is hindered by challenges related to Li dendrite formation, which can lead to short circuits and battery failure. In this study, the role of Ag nanoparticles embedded within solid electrolytes (SE) is investigated in suppressing dendrite propagation. The results demonstrate that Ag nanoparticles effectively mitigate two key failure mechanisms: (1) dendrite growth within porous networks at low current densities and (2) stress intensification‐induced SE fracture at higher current densities (12 mA cm −2 ). Ex situ characterization using focused‐ion beam – scanning electron microscopy (FIB–SEM) and energy dispersive X‐ray spectroscopy (EDS,) reveals that Ag nanoparticles migrate alongside advancing Li dendrites, promoting homogeneous dendrite growth and reducing the likelihood of localized stress concentrations. Additionally, the incorporation of Ag nanoparticles is shown to facilitate a more uniform Li distribution toward the anode side, which can potentially enable the use of higher charging rates in SSBs. This study provides a new perspective on Li dendrite suppression and presents new opportunities for enhancing the performance and safety of SSBs.

Diallo, Mouhamad Said↗

DOE OSTI2026

Agentic artificial intelligence for multistage physics experiments at a large-scale user facility particle accelerator

We present a language-model-driven agentic artificial intelligence (AI) system to autonomously execute multistage physics experiments on a production synchrotron light source. Implemented at the Advanced Light Source particle accelerator, the system translates natural language user prompts into structured execution plans that combine archive data retrieval, control-system channel resolution, automated script generation, controlled machine interaction, and analysis. In a representative machine physics task, we show that preparation time was reduced by 2 orders of magnitude relative to manual scripting even for a system expert, while operator-standard safety constraints were strictly upheld. Core architectural features, plan-first orchestration, bounded tool access, and dynamic capability selection, enable transparent, auditable execution with fully reproducible artifacts. These results establish a blueprint for the safe integration of agentic AI into accelerator experiments and demanding machine physics studies, as well as routine operations, with direct portability across accelerators worldwide and, more broadly, to other large-scale scientific infrastructures.

Accelerator/storage ring control systems↗

DOE OSTI2022

Updates and Validation for the n+ 63,65 Cu Cross Sections [Abstract]

The neutron induced total, elastic, and capture cross sections of 63,65 Cu isotopes were selected for evaluation in the resolved and unresolved resonance energy ranges by the National Criticality Safety Program to resolve discrepancies related to benchmark performance. This is especially evident for the series of ZEUS benchmarks in which copper is used as a reflector. Because copper is also used as structural material in both fission and fusion reactors, the need to address benchmark discrepancies linked to nuclear data deficiencies is a task of primary importance. The aim of this work is to describe the steps of evaluation work towards a consistent improvement of the benchmark performance. The R-matrix analysis with the SAMMY code focused on the 63 Cu(n,γ) reaction channel between 100-300 keV coupled to unresolved resonance region parameters up to 650 keV to fit average cross section data from a recent experiment. Due to the high sensitivity of many benchmarks to elastic scattering angular distribution data, especially for the 65 Cu isotope, the impact of these data was tested by generating Legendre coefficients from both resonance parameters and the Hauser-Feshbach model. Guided by the findings of Shaw et al., the performance of the current evaluation for 65 Cu was compared to that of ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0 by testing the reactivity coefficients corresponding to the validation suite of experimental criticality benchmarks for thermal, intermediate, and fast systems taken from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments Project Handbook. The benchmark performance is especially sensitive to 63 Cu(n,γ) and 65 Cu elastic scattering for neutron energies in the 100–500 keV region, whereas 100 keV is the upper limit of the resolved resonance region in the ENDF/B-VIII.0 evaluations for 63,65 Cu. The results highlight the need to handle the transition from the resolved resonance region to the high energy region carefully.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Application of an Empirical Density Law via Python for Aqueous Plutonium Chloride Systems in MCNP6

Current aqueous plutonium processing models for criticality safety often contain significant bias due to material modeling assumptions. These solutions include plutonium chloride solutions, which are modeled as fictitious plutonium metal-water mixtures because little is known about the actual density of the solution. Furthermore, there is no current predictive capability for modeling plutonium metal-water mixtures that is approved for use at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Recent density measurements for aqueous plutonium chloride systems (PuCl 3 -HCl-H 2 O) now allow for the development and application of a more realistic density law. This work develops a Python-based density law for this ternary solution using an empirical method. This code can be used in conjunction with an MCNP6 input to determine the density and composition of a solution based upon user inputs of plutonium concentration, hydrochloric acid concentration, and temperature. The tool allows users to input plutonium and acid content of a solution in terms of molality, molarity, or concentration, and predicts density within the current data range within 1.4% of experimental data. Current preliminary MCNP6 calculations utilizing this tool have demonstrated a minimum decrease in system reactivity of 5% in comparison to the current modeling conventions. Thus, this tool enables more accurate criticality safety operational limits by better crediting chorine content while still maintaining necessary conservatism.

Density Law↗

DOE OSTI2024

Implementation of a realistic artificial data generator for crash data generation

In this paper, a framework is outlined to generate realistic artificial data (RAD) as a tool for comparing different models developed for safety analysis. The primary focus of transportation safety analysis is on identifying and quantifying the influence of factors contributing to traffic crash occurrence and its consequences. The current framework of comparing model structures using only observed data has limitations. With observed data, it is not possible to know how well the models mimic the true relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Further, real datasets do not allow researchers to evaluate the model performance for different levels of complexity of the dataset. RAD offers an innovative framework to address these limitations. Hence, we propose a RAD generation framework embedded with heterogeneous causal structures that generates crash data by considering crash occurrence as a trip level event impacted by trip level factors, demographics, roadway and vehicle attributes. Within our RAD generator we employ three specific modules: (a) disaggregate trip information generation, (b) crash data generation and (c) crash data aggregation. For disaggregate trip information generation, we employ a daily activity-travel realization for an urban region generated from an established activity-based model for the Chicago region. We use this data of more than 2 million daily trips to generate a subset of trips with crash data. For trips with crashes crash location, crash type, driver/vehicle characteristics, and crash severity. The daily RAD generation process is repeated for generating crash records at yearly or multi-year resolution. In conclusion, the crash databases generated can be employed to compare frequency models, severity models, crash type and various other dimensions by facility type - possibly establishing a universal benchmarking system for alternative model frameworks in safety literature.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Status Report on Regulatory Criteria Applicable to the Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)

Although the interest in the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in nuclear energy is increasing rapidly, at present their implementation is limited. This rapid increase in interest is not surprising considering that implementing AI and ML technology would allow for continuous monitoring, facilitate the implementation of predictive maintenance with optimized staffing plans, enable automation and autonomy opportunities that could drastically reduce fixed operation and maintenance costs, and provide training for operations and maintenance. Other industries are using AI for construction, and in the nuclear arena AI could provide great benefit in decommissioning activities. The ability of AI and ML to operate in real time vastly increases their potential impact. Before AI can be used in design, operations, or as a regulatory tool, the specifics on the regulations applicable to the use of AI for nuclear power applications need to be established. The difficulty is that the specific use cases will dictate the applicability of regulations. For example, even within the application domain associated with operations, the regulations might vary if the AI is used to create a virtual reference for plant operations or is used for training, optimization of maintenance intervals, prioritization of maintenance activities, etc. Different still is if the AI is to be used for design or setting technical specifications, which will introduce additional requirements. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing reviews are based on an applicant’s design meeting its performance assessment based on (1) safety goals and objectives, (2) deterministic and/or probabilistic analysis of accident scenarios, and (3) quantitative assessment of design alternatives against the safety goals and objectives using accepted engineering tools, methodologies, and performance criteria. The current regulatory framework does not explicitly address AI or autonomous control. However, as implementing AI technology will require the use of a digital platform, it must meet the requirements of an instrumentation and control (I&C) system. The regulatory requirements for AI, which will be incorporated into the I&C system, will be very dependent on how it is used (i.e., its functionality, safety classification, etc.). The licensing process is primarily risk-based with the identification of components and systems as nonsafety, important to safety, or safety related. A risk-informed approach allows further gradation of components and systems based on risk metrics such as core damage frequency or large early release fractions. Thus, the use cases and the risk categorization of impacted systems and components will determine the regulatory requirements. Regardless of how AI is used it presents new opportunities for risk-informing operating, maintenance, and regulatory decisions. Trustworthiness, transparency, and the ability to validate and verify the results will be paramount in showing that the systems and plant still meet their performance requirements. This report describes the results of research to identify regulatory implications of AI technologies and their uses. Specifically, this report reviews current regulatory guidance relevant to the application of AI for design (including design changes or new designs including advanced reactors), construction, operations, training, maintenance, research, testing, and as a regulatory tool. AI can be automated at different levels from purely informative purposes to autonomous controls. The focus of this review included determination of constraints on the application of AI technology, identification of any regulatory gaps or uncertainties, and clarification of anticipated technical basis information likely to be important for regulatory acceptance of these technologies. Currently, any use of AI at nuclear power plants is focused on nonsafety-related applications. The NRC and other regulatory bodies are evaluating providing guidance to address gaps rather than create new regulations to address the use of AI and ML. This approach seems to be the best to encourage AI development without adding regulatory uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using Generative AI to implement the discrepancy checker for a Nearly Autonomous Management and Control System for Advanced Reactors

Developments related to generative artificial intelligence (AI) have brought a major breakthrough in AI. These developments are rapidly accelerating developments in different science and engineering applications. Nearly Autonomous Management and Control (NAMAC) system provides recommendations to the operator for maintaining the safety and performance of the reactor. The discrepancy checker (DC) is an important component of the NAMAC) system, whose goal is to determine if the plant is moving towards the expected system state after the control actions are injected. In this work, we explore generative AI methods, particularly, a generative pretrained transformer (GPT) for implementing the DC function in NAMAC. The GPT-based DC aims to alert the operator in situations outside NAMAC’s scope and act as a chatbot the operator can use to retrieve relevant information. This study involves two versions of GPT developed by OpenAI: GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. These GPTs are trained on huge amounts of undisclosed general domain datasets. We explored two methods to adapt GPTs for DC implementation in NAMAC: fine-tuning and retrieval augmented generation. A small knowledge base (information file) that encompasses rules for DC implementation and some general information related to NAMAC has been created to support DC implementation using GPT. In this work, the GPT-based DC implementations have been tested for their reasoning abilities, comprehension, information retrieval, and extraction abilities. It should be noted that this paper only presents a preliminary study to test the feasibility of DC implementation using generative AI technology. Given the potential risks and severe consequences associated with nuclear reactor applications, combined with the black-box nature of AI, extensive offline and online testing and reliability analyses of GPT-based DCs are needed for further developing such capabilities.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effect of Inlet Throttling on Thermohydraulic Instability in a Large Scale Waterbased RCCS: A System-Level Analysis with RELAP5-3D

This paper presents results from system -level modeling of a water -based reactor cavity cooling system using RELAP5-3D. The computational model is benchmarked with experimental data from a half -scale RCCS test facility at Argonne National Laboratory. The model prediction is first compared with a two-phase oscillatory baseline experimental case where mixed accuracy is obtained. The model shows reasonable prediction of mass flow rate, pressure, and temperature but significant overprediction of void fraction. The model prediction is then compared with a fault case where the inlet of the risers is gradually reduced using a throttling valve. As the valve is closed, the model is able to predict some major flow phenomena observed in the experiment such as the dampening of oscillations, the reintroduction of oscillations, as well as boiling, flashing, and geysering in the risers. However, the timeline of these events are not well captured by the model. The model is also used to investigate the evolution of flow regime in the chimney. This work highlights that the semiempirical constitutive relations used in RELAP-3D could have a strong influence on the accuracy of the model in two-phase oscillatory flows.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development of an ERT‐Based Framework for Bentonite Buffers Monitoring From Laboratory Tests: 2. Quantitative Moisture Dynamics Estimation Model

Abstract The long‐term containment of high‐level radioactive waste in geological disposal repositories relies on Engineered Barrier Systems (EBS), with bentonite clay emerging as a candidate material due to its unique properties. Understanding moisture dynamics within bentonite buffers is crucial for EBS performance, as it directly influences the material's swelling capacity, thermal and hydraulic conductivity, mechanical properties, and long‐term evolution under complex thermal‐hydrological‐mechanical (THM) processes. This study develops an advanced Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT)‐based framework to quantitatively monitor moisture dynamics under THM conditions. Our framework extends the Waxman‐Smits model to incorporate the coupled effects of temperature, water content, fluid chemistry, and mechanical changes on bentonite's electrical properties. Utilizing HotBENT‐Lab data from our companion paper, which includes electrical conductivity, CT density, and thermocouple measurements, this study offers a novel methodological framework bridging different scales of the model. Our results show that the extended model can estimate water content from ERT data, capturing spatial and temporal variations in moisture distribution within bentonite columns. However, the model tends to overestimate water content compared to CT density‐derived measurements. We address this discrepancy by incorporating a simplified swelling effect model, which improves agreement between ERT and CT density‐based water content estimates. We also discuss model limitations, including simplified treatment of swelling and micropore effects, and propose a conceptual framework for transitioning from laboratory to field applications, addressing challenges such as parameter scalability, field validation methods, and integration of diverse data sources. This ERT‐based framework can potentially advance real‐world moisture monitoring of bentonite‐based EBS in nuclear waste repositories. Plain Language Summary Safely containing high‐level radioactive waste depends on barriers made from materials like bentonite clay, which is effective because it swells and seals in the waste. To ensure these barriers work well over time, it's important to understand how moisture moves through the clay. Our study developed a new method using ERT to monitor moisture levels in bentonite under conditions that mimic those in actual storage sites, including changes in temperature, water content, and mechanical stress. This study improved an existing model to better account for how these factors affect the clay, allowing us to create more accurate moisture maps. Initially, the proposed model overestimated the amount of water in the clay, but its accuracy was improved by factoring in how the clay swells when wet. This study also identified some limitations of the model and suggested ways to adapt it for use in real‐world waste storage sites. This new approach could lead to better monitoring and safety checks for nuclear waste storage systems, helping to ensure long‐term containment. Key Points This work develops an ERT‐based framework extending the Waxman‐Smits model to monitor bentonite moisture dynamics during coupled THM processes The extended model accurately estimates water content from Electrical Resistivity Tomography data, incorporating swelling effects to improve precision This work proposes a conceptual framework for transitioning from laboratory to field applications, advancing EBS monitoring in nuclear waste repositories

Chen, Hang↗

DOE OSTI2020

Exploratory Investigation of Disengagements and Crashes in Autonomous Vehicles Under Mixed Traffic: An Endogenous Switching Regime Framework

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) have a large potential to improve traffic safety but also pose some critical challenges. While AVs may help reduce crashes caused by human error, they still may experience failures of technologies and sensing, as well as decision-making errors in a mixed traffic environment. A disengagement refers to an AV transitioning control from autonomous systems to the trained test driver. The safety critical nature of disengagements makes it imperative to analyze disengagements and crashes together. In this study, we analyze both crashes and disengagements from real-world AV driving in California to fill the knowledge gap regarding the relationship between disengagements and crashes in a mixed traffic environment. A nested logit model was calibrated using three different outcomes: (1) disengagement with a crash, (2) disengagement with no crash, and (3) no disengagement with a crash. Furthermore, endogenous switching regime models were also calibrated to draw distinctions between the relation of disengagements and crashes while accounting for endogeneity effects. The results show that factors related to AV systems (such as software failures) and other roadway participants increase the propensity of a disengagement without a crash. Furthermore, AVs were observed to disengage less often as the technology matured over time. Marginal effects revealed an 8% decrease. The results thus suggest that disengagements are a part of AVs' safe performance and disengagement alerts may need to be triggered in order to avoid certain failures with current technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in the GDSA Framework (FY2025)

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign (SFWST) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) is conducting research and development on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). Two priorities for SFWST are design concept development and disposal system modeling. These priorities are directly addressed in the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) control account, which is charged with developing a geologic repository system modeling and analysis capability, and the associated software, GDSA Framework, for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. This report describes specific activities in the Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 associated with the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package. This report fulfills the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package (SF-25SN01030407) level 3 milestone, Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in GDSA Framework (FY2025) (M3SF-25SN010304072). This work was closely coordinated with the other Sandia National Laboratory GDSA work packages: the GDSA Framework Development work package (SF-25SN01030408), the GDSA Repository Systems Analysis work package (SF-25SN01030409), and the GDSA PFLOTRAN Development work package (SF-25SN01030410). This report builds on developments reported in previous GDSA Framework milestones, particularly M3SF-24SN010304072.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in the GDSA Framework (FY2024)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗