Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Stochastic modelling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 631 records · Page 35

Enhancing flexibility for climate change using seasonal energy storage (aquifer thermal energy storage) in distributed energy systems

Long-term energy storage is expected to play a vital role in the deep decarbonization of building energy sectors, while enhancing the flexibility of buildings to withstand future climate variations. However, it is challenging to design distributed multi-energy systems (DMES) while taking into account the uncertainties introduced by climate change, since stochastic optimization of such systems is difficult. The present study introduces a stochastic optimization model to address this bottleneck, taking into account DMES including aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) as the long-term thermal storage. For the first time, a novel optimization algorithm links ATES with the DMES optimization model with the support of a simplified geotechnical model. Subsequently, a case study was conducted, focusing on a residential district in Chicago where the impact of future climate condition, energy demand, and solar and wind energy potentials were evaluated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) data (up to 2080) and the EnergyPlus model. The study revealed that ATES is an attractive way to improve the renewable energy penetration level and minimize the dependence on fossil fuels with reasonable support from the grid to assist the fluctuations in both demand and generation. Furthermore, ATES notably reduces fuel consumption and dependence while greatly enhancing the flexibility of the energy system to withstand fluctuations in demand and renewable energy generation brought by future climate variations. These qualities will make ATES an important part of distributed energy systems, even though it is not currently the lowest cost alternative due to lack of technology maturity. Furthermore, the design platform introduced in the present study can be used to design DMES enhancing flexibility to accommodate future climate variations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Probabilistic low cycle fatigue failure analysis with application to liquid propellant rocket engines

A probabilistic Low Cycle Fatigue (LCF) failure analysis of a candidate turbine disk for use in a turbopump of a rocket engine of the Space Shuttle Main Engine class is described. A state-of-the-art LCF failure prediction method was used in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate a distribution of failure lives. A stochastic Stress/Life (S/N) model was used for materials characterization. The LCF failure model expresses fatigue life as a function of stochastic parameters including environmental parameters, loads, material properties, structural parameters, and model specification errors. The rationale for the particular characterization of each stochastic input parameter is described. The results and interpretation of the failure analysis are given.

Newlin, L.↗

Formation and coarsening of epitaxially-supported metal nanoclusters

This mini-review describes developments over the last ~30 years in characterizing the nucleation & growth of epitaxially-supported metal nanoclusters (NCs) or islands during vapor deposition, as well as their post-deposition coarsening. A beyond-mean-field treatment for homogeneous nucleation & growth corrects the deficiencies of traditional treatments in describing, e.g., the island size distribution, but also necessitates consideration of the spatial distribution of islands and their capture zones. We discuss advances in modeling capabilities, including those based upon on an ab-initio level treatment of periphery diffusion kinetics, for description of the non-equilibrium growth shapes of these NCs, focusing on 2D NCs. For post-deposition coarsening of arrays of NCs, there is generally a competition between Ostwald Ripening (OR) and Smoluchowski Ripening (SR). SR is also known as Particle Migration & Coalescence. For 2D NCs in homoepitaxial systems, conventional OR is observed on pristine fcc(111) surfaces, dramatically enhanced OR in the presence of even trace amounts of chalcogens for Cu(111) and Ag(111), and anomalous OR on anisotropic fcc(110) surfaces. The unexpected discovery of SR for fcc(100) homoepitaxial systems prompted extensive analysis of the underlying diffusivities of 2D NCs as a function of size, as well as of NC coalescence dynamics. A comprehensive understanding of these processes is now available. Self-assembly of 3D NCs during deposition, issues related to heterogeneous nucleation, directed assembly, NC growth structure selection, and coarsening are addressed. Finally, for SR of 3D epitaxial NCs, recent insights into the size-dependence of diffusivity are described.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Energy-saving potential evaluation for primary schools with occupant-centric controls

Recent studies demonstrated that there is significant energy-saving potential for primary schools, which heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems with occupant-centric control (OCC) is an excellent candidate to save energy. However, such an energy impact has yet to be evaluated for different climate zones as well as different energy code versions, but is critical for technology transfer and deployment. Therefore, this paper conducts comprehensive evaluation on the energy-saving potentials for the primary schools with two advanced OCC strategies: presence-based and counting-based. In this work, ninety-six building energy models with stochastic behavior of occupants are developed and simulated, which consist of two building energy code versions, 16 climate zones, and baseline case (without OCC) and two advanced cases (with OCC). To evaluate the energy saving potentials for OCC, primary schools in the U.S. are used as an example. The results show that there is significant energy-saving potential for primary schools by considering OCC strategies, especially the counting-based case. The energy-saving potential is up to 10.2% for presence-based OCC and 12.41% for counting-based OCC. Furthermore, both climate and code version have a significant impact on energy savings from OCC strategies. The energy-saving potentials vary from 1.79% to 12.41% for different climates and code versions. This evaluation can also contribute to quantify the nationwide energy saving potential for other countries.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Effect of particle size on the capture of uranium oxide colloidal particles from aqueous suspensions via high-gradient magnetic filtration

The effectiveness of High Gradient Magnetic Filtration (HGMF) in capturing uranium oxide particles from suspensions was investigated in this study. Two sets of experiments were performed to evaluate the importance of size on the capture of uranium oxide particles. The first considered two batches sieved into size bins of< 5, 5–10, 10–15, and 15–20 µm, while the second was performed using two suspensions with diameters smaller than 1.0 µm and between 1.0 and 1.5 µm. Iron oxide experiments, with particles between 0.3 and 0.8 µm, were performed for calibration purposes. In all experiments, a surfactant (Triton-X100 or sodium dodecyl sulfate) was used to prevent particle aggregation and limit the influence of non-magnetic capture mechanisms. A magnetic field of approximately 1.1 Tesla was generated using a water cooled electromagnet. HGMF was performed using tubular filters packed with ferromagnetic stainless-steel wool. Of the initial four uranium oxide particle sizes, magnetic capture was only observed for particles with a diameter of less than 5 µm, while larger particles experienced no magnetic and minimal total capture. For particles with diameters smaller than 1.0 µm and between 1.0 and 1.5 µm, capture efficiencies increased by 39 ± 9% and 34 ± 6% respectively, solely due to the magnetic field. Although the magnetic force is proportional to particle diameter, the capture efficiency decreased as diameter increased. So these results suggest that Brownian diffusion, which is influential for micron sized particles and increases with decreasing particle size, is acting in conjunction with the magnetic force to influence the efficacy of HGMF for uranium oxide. This important finding underscores the effectiveness of Brownian diffusion in increasing the rate of collision between particles and collector fibers. A stochastic trajectory model was developed to incorporate the influence of Brownian motion on particle behavior and filter removal efficiency. Modeling results are discussed and compared for uranium and iron oxide particles.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Enhancing power grid resilience to winter storms via generator winterization with equity considerations

Here we develop two-stage stochastic programming models for generator winterization that enhance power grid resilience while incorporating social equity. The first stage in our models captures the investment decisions for generator winterization, and the second stage captures the operation of a degraded power grid, with the objective of minimizing load shed and social inequity. To incorporate equity into our models, we propose a concept called adverse effect probability that captures the disproportionate effects of power outages on communities with varying vulnerability levels. Grid operations are modeled using DC power flow, and equity is captured through mean or maximum adverse effects experienced by communities. We apply our models to a synthetic Texas power grid, using winter storm scenarios created from the generator outage data from the 2021 Texas winter storm. Our extensive numerical experiments show that more equitable outcomes, in the sense of reducing adverse effects experienced by vulnerable communities during power outages, are achievable with no impact on total load shed through investing in winterization of generators in different locations and capacities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Probing the Atomic-Scale Structure of Amorphous Aluminum Oxide Grown by Atomic Layer Deposition

Atomic layer deposition (ALD) is a well-established technique for depositing nanoscale coatings with pristine control of film thickness and composition. The trimethylaluminum (TMA) and water (H 2 O) ALD chemistry is inarguably the most widely used and yet to date, we have little information about the atomic-scale structure of the amorphous aluminum oxide (AlO x ) formed by this chemistry. This lack of understanding hinders our ability to establish process-structure-property relationships and ultimately limits technological advancements employing AlOx made via ALD. In this work, we employ synchrotron high-energy X-ray diffraction (HE-XRD) coupled with pair distribution function (PDF) analysis to characterize the atomic structure of amorphous AlO x ALD coatings. We combine ex situ and in operando HE-XRD measurements on ALD AlO x and fit these experimental data using stochastic structural modeling to reveal variations in the Al-O bond length, Al and O coordination environment, and extent of Al vacancies as a function of growth conditions. In particular, the local atomic structure of ALD AlO x is found to change with the substrate and number of ALD cycles. The observed trends are consistent with the formation of bulk Al 2 O 3 surrounded by an O-rich surface layer. We deconvolute these data to reveal atomic-scale structural information for both the bulk and surface phases. Overall, this work demonstrates the usefulness of HE-XRD and PDF analysis in improving our understanding of the structure of amorphous ALD thin films and provides a pathway to evaluate how process changes impact the structure and properties of ALD films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Combining High-Throughput Experiments and Active Learning to Characterize Deep Eutectic Solvents

The high tunability of deep eutectic solvents (DESs) stems from the ease of changing their precursors and relative compositions. However, measuring the physicochemical properties across large composition and temperature ranges, necessary to properly design target-specific DESs, is tedious and error-prone and represents a bottleneck in the advancement and scalability of DES-based applications. As such, active learning (AL) methodologies based on Gaussian processes (GPs) were developed in this work to minimize the experimental effort necessary to characterize DESs. Owing to its importance for large-scale applications, the reduction of DES viscosity through the addition of a low-molecular-weight solvent was explored as a case study. A high-throughput experimental screening was initially performed on nine different ternary DESs. Then, GPs were successfully trained to predict DES viscosity from its composition and temperature, showcasing the ability of these stochastic, nonparametric models to accurately describe the physicochemical properties of complex mixtures. Finally, the ability of GPs to provide estimates of their own uncertainty was leveraged through an AL framework to minimize the number of data points necessary to obtain accurate viscosity modes. This led to a significant reduction in data requirements, with many systems requiring only five independent viscosity data points to be properly described.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Validation of Hygrothermal Simulations with Wall Performance Experiments in an Environmental Chamber

Oak Ridge National Laboratory is developing a web tool, built on a rule-based expert system, that aids stakeholders in designing energy-efficient moisture-durable walls. Currently, the tool’s expert system database is mostly populated with expert opinion, but work is being done to incorporate durability assessment based on stochastic hygrothermal modeling. Chamber experiments have been conducted to validate the hygrothermal models. The measured temperature and humidity have been compared with those predicted by the hygrothermal model. Experiments and comparison to one-dimensional hygrothermal modeling results were completed with two walls, a Structural Insulated Panel (SIP) based wall and a Concrete Masonry Unit (CMU) based wall. The two walls were succumbed to typical Chicago weather in ORNL’s Heat, Air and Moisture chamber. The walls were sequentially exposed to different scenarios, including diffusion, wetting, air leakage and solar radiation. For the most part, the hygrothermal simulations can be successfully used to predict the performance of these wall systems for the moisture transport phenomenon. Errors between measured and simulated values decreased as measurements got closer to the interior side of the wall. The root mean square error was larger for relative humidity (up to 17.5%-RH for CMU) than for temperature (up to 4.5°C for CMU wall). The errors were larger for the CMU wall than the wood frame wall. The phenomenon, including liquid water, caused large discrepancies between measurement and simulation results, and simulated results showed slower drying of materials than measured results. The one-dimensional nature of the simulation model made simulating air leaks difficult but not impossible.

Salonvaara, Mikael↗

Fracton superfluid hydrodynamics

We examine the hydrodynamics of systems with spontaneously broken multipolar symmetries using a systematic effective field theory. We focus on the simplest nontrivial setting: a system with charge and dipole symmetry, but without momentum conservation. When no symmetries are broken, our formalism reproduces the quartic subdiffusion (ω ~ –ik 4 ) characteristic of “fracton hydrodynamics” with conserved dipole moment. Our formalism also captures spontaneous breaking of charge and/or dipole symmetry. When charge symmetry is spontaneously broken, the hydrodynamic modes are quadratically propagating and quartically relaxing (ω ~ ±k 2 – ik 4 ). When the dipole symmetry is spontaneously broken but the charge symmetry is preserved, then we find quadratically relaxing (diffusive) transverse modes, plus another mode which, depending on parameters, may be either purely diffusive (ω ~ – ik 2 ) or quadratically propagating and quadratically relaxing (ω ~ ± k 2 – ik 2 ). Furthermore, our work provides concrete predictions that may be tested in near-term cold atom experiments, and also lays out a general framework that may be applied to study systems with spontaneously broken multipolar symmetries.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Quasiprobabilistic Readout Correction of Midcircuit Measurements for Adaptive Feedback via Measurement Randomized Compiling

Quantum measurements are a fundamental component of quantum computing. However, on present-day quantum computers, measurements can be more error prone than quantum gates and are susceptible to nonunital errors as well as nonlocal correlations due to measurement crosstalk. While readout errors can be mitigated in postprocessing, this is inefficient in the number of qubits due to a combinatorially large number of possible states that need to be characterized. In this work, we show that measurement errors can be tailored into a simple stochastic error model using randomized compiling, enabling the efficient mitigation of readout errors via quasiprobability distributions reconstructed from the measurement of a single preparation state in an exponentially large confusion matrix. We demonstrate the scalability and power of this approach by correcting readout errors without matrix inversion on a large number of different preparation states applied to a register of eight superconducting transmon qubits. Moreover, we show that this method can be extended to midcircuit measurements used for active feedback via quasiprobabilistic error cancellation, and we demonstrate the correction of measurement errors on an ancilla qubit used to detect and actively correct bit-flip errors on an entangled memory qubit. Our approach enables the correction of readout errors on large numbers of qubits and offers a strategy for correcting readout errors in adaptive circuits in which the results of midcircuit measurements are used to perform conditional operations on nonlocal qubits in real time.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

An Introduction to the Federated Architecture for Secure and Transactive Distributed Energy Management Solutions (FAST-DERMS)

Deployment and capability of distributed energy resources (DER) in power systems is growing rapidly. These resources present an opportunity for low-cost provision of energy and grid services. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission recently provided rulings to enable market participation of these distribution-connected resources, but the prevailing strategies for their management may not scale well to meet future needs. This paper introduces the Federated Architecture for Secure and Transactive Distributed Energy Management Solutions (FAST-DERMS) which was designed to address this need. In it we describe the architectural features of the approach, and a reference controls implementation employing a hierarchical coordination that includes stochastic optimization, model predictive control, and a simple real-time management scheme. Sample results from simulation show firm transmission-level service provision measured at the distribution substation.

grid architecture↗

Next-Cycle Optimal Fuel Control for Cycle-to-Cycle Variability Reduction in EGR-Diluted Combustion

In this simulation study, cycle-to-cycle fuel control was used to reduce CCV by injecting additional fuel in operating conditions with sporadic misfires and partial burns. An optimal control policy was proposed that utilizes 1) a physics-based model that tracks in-cylinder gas composition and 2) a one-step-ahead prediction of the combustion efficiency based on a kernel density estimator. The optimal solution, however, presents a tradeoff between the reduction in combustion CCV and the increase in fuel injection quantity required to stabilize the charge. Such a tradeoff can be ad- just by a single parameter embedded in the cost function.

Maldonado, BryanP. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL)↗

HYPPO: A Surrogate-Based Multi-Level Parallelism Tool for Hyperparameter Optimization

We present a new software, HYPPO, that enables the automatic tuning of hyperparameters of various deep learning (DL) models. Unlike other hyperparameter optimization (HPO) methods, HYPPO uses adaptive surrogate models and directly accounts for uncertainty in model predictions to find accurate and reliable models that make robust predictions. Using asynchronous nested parallelism, we are able to significantly alleviate the computational burden of training complex architectures and quantifying the uncertainty. HYPPO is implemented in Python and can be used with both TensorFlow and PyTorch libraries. We demonstrate various software features on time-series prediction and image classification problems as well as a scientific application in computed tomography image reconstruction. Finally, we show that (1) we can reduce by an order of magnitude the number of evaluations necessary to find the most optimal region in the hyperparameter space and (2) we can reduce by two orders of magnitude the throughput for such HPO process to complete.

adaptation models↗

Adaptive mitigation of time-varying quantum noise

Current quantum computers suffer from non-stationary noise channels with high error rates, which undermines their reliability and reproducibility. We propose a Bayesian inference based adaptive algorithm that can learn and mitigate quantum noise in response to changing channel conditions. Our study emphasizes the need for dynamic inference of critical channel parameters to improve program accuracy. We use the Dirichlet distribution to model the stochasticity of the Pauli channel. This allows us to perform Bayesian inference, which can improve the performance of probabilistic error cancellation (PEC) under time-varying noise. Our work demonstrates the importance of characterizing and mitigating temporal variations in quantum noise, which is crucial for developing more accurate and reliable quantum technologies. Our results demonstrate that Bayesian PEC can outperform non-adaptive approaches by a factor of 4.5x when measured using Hellinger distance from the ideal distribution.

Dasgupta, Samudra↗

Next-Cycle Optimal Dilute Combustion Control via Online Learning of Cycle-to-Cycle Variability Using Kernel Density Estimators

Dilute combustion using exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) presents a cost-effective method for increasing the efficiency of spark-ignition (SI) engines. However, the maximum amount of EGR that can be used at a given condition is limited by a rapid increment of cycle-to-cycle variability (CCV). This study describes a methodology to design a model-based stochastic optimal controller to adjust the cycle-to-cycle fuel injection quantity in order to reduce CCV and further extend the dilute limit. Given the complexity and chaotic nature of combustion events, the controller was enhanced with online learning in order to identify the statistical properties of combustion efficiency, which are needed to generate predictions for next-cycle events. This study showed that a kernel density estimator (KDE) can be used to learn the combustion properties in real time and can be incorporated into the feedback policy in order to calculate the optimal control command. Experimental results suggested that the dilute limit can be extended from 18.5% to 21% EGR fraction at an operating condition relevant for highway cruising. Additionally, the proposed controller can achieve a large CCV reduction with less fuel enrichment compared to previous methods, overall contributing to an increase in 0.2% indicated fuel conversion efficiency.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗