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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Improving the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation via a Surrogate‐Accelerated Multi‐Objective Optimization

Accurate simulation of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is challenging due to uncertainties in representing convectively generated gravity waves. We develop an end-to-end uncertainty quantification workflow that calibrates these gravity wave processes in E3SM for a realistic QBO. Central to our approach is a domain knowledge-informed, compressed representation of high-dimensional spatio-temporal wind fields. By employing a parsimonious statistical model that learns the fundamental frequency from complex observations, we extract interpretable and physically meaningful quantities capturing key attributes. Building on this, we train a probabilistic surrogate model that approximates the fundamental characteristics of the QBO as functions of critical physics parameters governing gravity wave generation. Leveraging the Karhunen–Loève decomposition, our surrogate efficiently represents these characteristics as a set of orthogonal features, capturing cross-correlations among multiple physics quantities evaluated at different pressure levels and enabling rapid surrogate-based inference at a fraction of the computational cost of full-scale simulations. Finally, we analyze the inverse problem using a multi-objective approach. Our study reveals a tension between amplitude and period that constrains the QBO representation, precluding a single optimal solution. To navigate this, we quantify the bi-criteria trade-off and generate a set of Pareto optimal parameter values that balance the conflicting objectives. This integrated workflow improves the fidelity of QBO simulations and offers a versatile template for uncertainty quantification in complex geophysical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Determination of X-ray detection limit and applications in perovskite X-ray detectors

X-ray detection limit and sensitivity are important figure of merits for perovskite X-ray detectors, but literatures lack a valid mathematic expression for determining the lower limit of detection for a perovskite X-ray detector. In this work, we present a thorough analysis and new method for X-ray detection limit determination based on a statistical model that correlates the dark current and the X-ray induced photocurrent with the detection limit. The detection limit can be calculated through the measurement of dark current and sensitivity with an easy-to-follow practice. Alternatively, the detection limit may also be obtained by the measurement of dark current and photocurrent when repeatedly lowering the X-ray dose rate. While the material quality is critical, we show that the device architecture and working mode also have a significant influence on the sensitivity and the detection limit. Our work establishes a fair comparison metrics for material and detector development.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian tomography of high-dimensional on-chip biphoton frequency combs with randomized measurements

Abstract Owing in large part to the advent of integrated biphoton frequency combs, recent years have witnessed increased attention to quantum information processing in the frequency domain for its inherent high dimensionality and entanglement compatible with fiber-optic networks. Quantum state tomography of such states, however, has required complex and precise engineering of active frequency mixing operations, which are difficult to scale. To address these limitations, we propose a solution that employs a pulse shaper and electro-optic phase modulator to perform random operations instead of mixing in a prescribed manner. We successfully verify the entanglement and reconstruct the full density matrix of biphoton frequency combs generated from an on-chip Si 3 N 4 microring resonator in up to an 8 × 8-dimensional two-qudit Hilbert space, the highest dimension to date for frequency bins. More generally, our employed Bayesian statistical model can be tailored to a variety of quantum systems with restricted measurement capabilities, forming an opportunistic tomographic framework that utilizes all available data in an optimal way.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inequalities in global residential cooling energy use to 2050

Intersecting socio-demographic transformations and warming climates portend increasing worldwide heat exposures and health sequelae. Cooling adaptation via air conditioning (AC) is effective, but energy-intensive and constrained by household-level differences in income and adaptive capacity. Using statistical models trained on a large multi-country household survey dataset (n = 673,215), we project AC adoption and energy use to mid-century at fine spatial resolution worldwide. Globally, the share of households with residential AC could grow from 27% to 41% (range of scenarios assessed: 33-48%), implying up to a doubling of residential cooling electricity consumption, from 1220 to 1940 (scenarios range: 1590-2377) terawatt-hours yr. –1 , emitting between 590 and 1,365 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO 2 e). AC access and utilization will remain highly unequal within and across countries and income groups, with significant regressive impacts. Up to 4 billion people may lack air-conditioning in 2050. Our global gridded projections facilitate incorporation of AC’s vulnerability, health, and decarbonization effects into integrated assessments of climate change.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temperature measurement of Quark-Gluon plasma at different stages

In a Quark-Gluon Plasma (QGP), the fundamental building blocks of matter, quarks and gluons, are under extreme conditions of temperature and density. A QGP could exist in the early stages of the Universe, and in various objects and events in the cosmos. The thermodynamic and hydrodynamic properties of the QGP are described by Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) and can be studied in heavy-ion collisions. Despite being a key thermodynamic parameter, the QGP temperature is still poorly known. Thermal lepton pairs (e + e − and μ + μ − ) are ideal penetrating probes of the true temperature of the emitting source, since their invariant-mass spectra suffer neither from strong final-state interactions nor from blue-shift effects due to rapid expansion. Here we measure the QGP temperature using thermal e+e− production at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). The average temperature from the low-mass region (in-medium ρ 0 vector-meson dominant) is (2.01 ± 0.23) × 10 12 K, consistent with the chemical freeze-out temperature from statistical models and the phase transition temperature from Lattice QCD. The average temperature from the intermediate mass region (above the ρ0 mass, QGP dominant) is significantly higher at (3.25 ± 0.60) × 10 12 K. This work provides essential experimental thermodynamic measurements to map out the QCD phase diagram and understand the properties of matter under extreme conditions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the impact of human mobility to predict regional excess death in Ecuador

Abstract COVID-19 outbreaks have had high mortality in low- and middle-income countries such as Ecuador. Human mobility is an important factor influencing the spread of diseases possibly leading to a high burden of disease at the country level. Drastic control measures, such as complete lockdown, are effective epidemic controls, yet in practice one hopes that a partial shutdown would suffice. It is an open problem to determine how much mobility can be allowed while controlling an outbreak. In this paper, we use statistical models to relate human mobility to the excess death in Ecuador while controlling for demographic factors. The mobility index provided by GRANDATA, based on mobile phone users, represents the change of number of out-of-home events with respect to a benchmark date (March 2nd, 2020). The study confirms the global trend that more men are dying than expected compared to women, and that people under 30 show less deaths than expected, particularly individuals younger than 20 with a death rate reduction between 22 and 27%. The weekly median mobility time series shows a sharp decrease in human mobility immediately after a national lockdown was declared on March 17, 2020 and a progressive increase towards the pre-lockdown level within two months. Relating median mobility to excess deaths shows a lag in its effect: first, a decrease in mobility in the previous two to three weeks decreases excess death and, more novel, we found an increase of mobility variability four weeks prior increases the number of excess deaths.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Heterogeneous climate change impacts on electricity demand in world cities circa mid-century

Rising ambient temperatures due to climate change will increase urban populations’ exposures to extreme heat. During hot hours, a key protective adaptation is increased air conditioning and associated consumption of electricity for cooling. But during cold hours, milder temperatures have the offsetting effect of reducing consumption of electricity and other fuels for heating. We elucidate the net consequences of these opposing effects in 36 cities in different world regions. We couple reduced-form statistical models of cities’ hourly responses of electric load to temperature with temporally downscaled projections of temperatures simulated by 21 global climate models (GCMs), projecting the effects of warming on the demand for electricity circa 2050. Cities' responses, temperature exposures and impacts are heterogeneous, with changes in total annual consumption ranging from –2.7 to 5.7%, and peak power demand increasing by as much as 9.5% at the multi-GCM median. The largest increases are concentrated in more economically developed mid-latitude cities, with less developed urban areas in the tropics exhibiting relatively small changes. The results highlight the important role of the structure of electricity demand: large temperature increases in tropical cities are offset by their inelastic responses, which can be attributed to lower air-conditioning penetration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data driven pathway analysis and forecast of global warming and sea level rise

Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46–4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474–671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43–2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389–509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining Nucleosythesis in Neutrino-Driven Winds Using the Impact of ({alpha}, xn) Reaction Rates

The lighter heavy elements of the first r-process peak, between strontium and silver, can be synthesized in the moderately neutron-rich neutrino-driven ejecta of either core-collapse supernovae or neutron star mergers via the weak r-process. This nucleosynthesis scenario exhibits uncertainties from the absence of experimental data from (alpha, xn) reactions on neutron-rich nuclei, which are currently based on statistical model estimates. We have performed a new impact study to identify the most important (alpha, xn) reactions that can affect the production of the lighter heavy elements under different astrophysical conditions using new, constrained (alpha, xn) reaction rates based on the Atomki-V2 alpha OMP. Our results show how when reducing the nuclear physics uncertainties, we can use abundance ratios to constrain the astrophysical conditions/environment. This can be achieved in the near future, when the key (alpha, xn) reaction rates will be measured experimentally in radioactive beam facilities.

Psaltis, Athanasios↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microscopic evidence for scission neutrons

We discuss the neck rupture stage of fission and the emission of particles afterwards, two extremely rapid and highly non-equilibrium processes. Currently, the neck rupture cannot be directly probed by experiment, highlighting the importance of reliable theoretical predictions for this stage of fission. Time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) is used to simulate the spontaneous fission of 252 Cf. In conjunction with statistical models, inputs from microscopic calculations can be used to make predictions for prompt neutron and gamma emission spectra, quantities which can be experimentally measured. Here we characterize the scission mechanism within TDDFT and estimate the number of scission neutrons and their kinetic energies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anomalous kaon correlations measured in Pb-Pb collisions at the LHC as evidence for the melting and refreezing of the QCD vacuum

Measurements of the dynamical correlations between neutral and charged kaons in central Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{S_{NN}}$ = 2.76 TeV by the ALICE Collaboration display anomalous behavior relative to conventional heavy-ion collision simulators. We consider other conventional statistical models, none of which can reproduce the magnitude and centrality dependence of the correlations. The data can be reproduced by coherent emission from domains which grow in number and volume with increasing centrality. We study the dynamical evolution of the strange quark condensate and show that the energy released during the expansion and cooling of the system may be sufficient to explain the anomaly.

Kapusta, Joseph↗
DOE OSTI2021

Guide field effects on the distribution of plasmoids in multiple scale reconnection

The effects of a finite guide field on the distribution of plasmoids in high-Lundquist-number current sheets undergoing magnetic reconnection in large plasmas are investigated with statistical models. Merging of plasmoids is taken into account either assuming that guide field flux is conserved resulting in nonforce-free profiles in general, or that magnetic helicity is conserved and Taylor relaxation occurs to convert part of the summed guide field flux into reconnecting field flux toward minimum energy states resulting in force-free profiles. It is found that the plasmoid distribution in terms of reconnecting field flux follows a power law with index 7/4 or 1 depending on whether merger frequencies are independent of or dependent on their relative velocity to the outflow speed, respectively. This result is approximately the same for the force-free and nonforce-free models, with nonforce-free models exhibiting indices of 2 and 1 for the same velocity dependencies. Distributions in terms of guide field flux yield indices of 3/2 for the nonforce-free model regardless of velocity dependence. This is notably distinct from the indices of 11/8 and 1 for the force-free models independent of and dependent on velocity, respectively. At low guide field fluxes, the force-free models exhibit a second power law index of 1/2 due to nonconstant flux growth rates. The velocity-dependent force-free model predicts the production of slightly more rapidly moving large guide field flux plasmoids which are supported by observational evidence of flux ropes with strong core fields. Implications are discussed on particle acceleration via Fermi processes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical analysis of displacement damage in small devices from neutron and ion irradiation

Modern semiconductor devices, such as gate-all-around nanosheet field-effect transistors (GAA NS FETs), are smaller than displacement damage cascades from fission neutrons. In this regime, device failure may occur through low-probability single events, rather than by parametric degradation previously seen in larger devices. Here, we present a statistical model that predicts the probability of a damage event in a small device and the probability distribution of the magnitude, i.e., number of displacements within the device, from each event. The model is developed first for neutron irradiation and then for energetic ion irradiation. The model is consistent with results from recent experiments in which lithium-ion irradiation produced stepwise increases in subthreshold current in GAA NS FETs.

Wampler, W. R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Progress toward hydro-equivalent ignition in OMEGA direct-drive DT-layered implosions

Considerable progress has been made in deuterium-tritium-layered implosion experiments on the OMEGA Laser System, bringing the prospects for thermonuclear ignition in direct-drive configurations with megajoule-class lasers closer to reality. Doing so has required navigating the balance between improved 1D performance and multidimensional stability. Using statistical modeling based on over 350 cryogenic implosions to identify various degradation mechanisms, and combined with multidimensional simulations and experimental techniques such as target offsets to combat residual flows, core conditions have repeatably been achieved that extrapolate to the burning-plasma state when scaled to 2.15 MJ of symmetric laser illumination. Using high implosion velocities (⁠> 450 km/s) and moderately high adiabats (⁠~5⁠), these experiments produced record-high scaled Lawson parameters in direct drive equal to 89 ± 2% of that required for ignition with expected yields of up to 1.5 ± 0.2 MJ. To improve these results still further, focused physics studies are performed to improve physics understanding and identify routes to even greater performance. Recent studies include investigations into the impact of mounting features, laser imprint, reduced fuel temperatures, and greater on-target intensities through subscale experiments. This manuscript gives a summary of the cryogenic direct-drive program on the OMEGA laser, including routes taken to achieve the current best performance, the status of recent focused physics investigations, and future designs—such as target solutions to laser imprint and reducing vapor density to increase convergence—that are expected lead to the demonstration of hydro-equivalent ignition on OMEGA.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Specific features of fluorescence transfer in multiply scattering randomly inhomogeneous layers under intense laser pumping

Based on the analysis of experimental data on the effect of the pulsed laser pump intensity on the spectral properties and the size of the fluorescent response zone in randomly inhomogeneous fluorescent layers, we found that the amplification of spontaneous and stimulated emission significantly affects the statistical properties of the propagation lengths of the fluorescent field partial components in the layers. The experiments are performed with layers of SiO{sub 2} and TiO{sub 2} nanoparticles saturated with rhodamine 6G, pumped by 532-nm laser radiation in the intensity range corresponding to the transient regime from excitation of spontaneous fluorescence to random lasing in the layer. The experimental data are compared with the results of statistical modelling of fluorescence transfer. It is shown that, even at a pump intensity below the random lasing threshold, the spontaneous emission amplification in a layer leads to a significant increase in the contributions to the fluorescence response from partial components with propagation lengths much larger than the layer thickness. This can be interpreted as a manifestation of the quasi-waveguide effect, in which the probability of propagation of diffuse fluorescence components along the layer over distances many times greater than its thickness and the size of the pumped region increases significantly with a decrease in the characteristic radiation amplification length in the layer. (paper)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Superdiffusion of quantized vortices uncovering scaling laws in quantum turbulence

Significance Quantum turbulence (QT) can appear in the presence of a chaotic tangle of quantized vortices in various quantum-fluid systems, including atomic Bose–Einstein condensates, superfluid helium, superfluid neutron stars, etc. Insights into the generic scaling behaviors of tangled vortices are crucial in developing an advanced statistical model of QT. By tracking tracer particles trapped on vortices in superfluid 4 He, we report the observation of an apparent superdiffusion of the vortices in QT. Our analysis shows that this superdiffusion is not due to Lévy flights, i.e., long-distance hops that are responsible for superdiffusion of random walkers. Instead, a power-law scaling of the vortex–velocity correlation is identified as the cause. This finding may motivate extensive future research on hidden scaling laws in QT.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing residential PM 2.5 concentrations and infiltration factors with high spatiotemporal resolution using crowdsourced sensors

Building conditions, outdoor climate, and human behavior influence residential concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ). To study PM 2.5 spatiotemporal variability in residences, we acquired paired indoor and outdoor PM 2.5 measurements at 3,977 residences across the United States totaling >10,000 monitor-years of time-resolved data (10-min resolution) from the PurpleAir network. Time-series analysis and statistical modeling apportioned residential PM 2.5 concentrations to outdoor sources (median residential contribution = 52% of total, coefficient of variation = 69%), episodic indoor emission events such as cooking (28%, CV = 210%) and persistent indoor sources (20%, CV = 112%). Residences in the temperate marine climate zone experienced higher infiltration factors, consistent with expectations for more time with open windows in milder climates. Likewise, for all climate zones, infiltration factors were highest in summer and lowest in winter, decreasing by approximately half in most climate zones. Large outdoor–indoor temperature differences were associated with lower infiltration factors, suggesting particle losses from active filtration occurred during heating and cooling. Absolute contributions from both outdoor and indoor sources increased during wildfire events. Infiltration factors decreased during periods of high outdoor PM 2.5 , such as during wildfires, reducing potential exposures from outdoor-origin particles but increasing potential exposures to indoor-origin particles. Time-of-day analysis reveals that episodic emission events are most frequent during mealtimes as well as on holidays (Thanksgiving and Christmas), indicating that cooking-related activities are a strong episodic emission source of indoor PM 2.5 in monitored residences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗