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At least 631 records · Page 35

Two Years of Simultaneous K(sub a)-Band Measurements: Goldstone, CA; White Sands, NM; and Guam, USA

In order to statistically characterize the effect of the Earth's atmosphere on Ka-Band links, site test interferometers (STIs) have been deployed at three of NASA s operational sites to directly measure each site's tropospheric phase stability and rain attenuation. These STIs are composed of two antennas on a short baseline (less than 1km) that observe the same unmodulated beacon signal broadcast from a geostationary satellite (e.g., Anik F2). The STIs are used to measure the differential phase between the two received signals as well as the individual signal attenuation at each terminal. There are currently three NASA sites utilizing STIs; the Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex near Barstow, California; the White Sands Complex in Las Cruces, New Mexico; and the Guam Remote Ground Terminal on the island of Guam. The first two sites are both located in desert regions that have highly similar climates in terms of their seasonal temperatures, average humidity, and annual rain fall (the primary factors in determining phase stability). In contrast, Guam is in a tropical region with drastically higher annual rainfall and humidity. Five station years of data have been collected in Goldstone, three in White Sands, and two in Guam, yielding two years of simultaneous data collection across all three sites. During this period of simultaneous data collection, the root-mean-square (RMS) of the time delay fluctuations stayed under 2.40 picoseconds for 90% of the time in Goldstone, under 2.07 picoseconds for 90% of the time in White Sands, and under 10.13 picoseconds for 90% of the time in Guam. For the 99th percentile, the statistics were 6.32 ps, 6.03 ps, and 24.85 ps, respectively. These values, as well as various other site quality characteristics, will be used to determine the suitability of these sites for NASA s future communication services at Ka-Band.

Acosta, Roberto J.↗

Theory of capillary tension and interfacial dynamics of motility-induced phases

The statistical mechanics of equilibrium interfaces has been well-established for over a half century. In the past decade, a wealth of observations have made increasingly clear that a new perspective is required to describe interfaces arbitrarily far from equilibrium. In this work, beginning from microscopic particle dynamics that break time-reversal symmetry, we derive the linear interfacial dynamics of coexisting motility-induced phases. Doing so allows us to identify the athermal energy scale that excites interfacial fluctuations and the nonequilibrium surface tension that resists these excitations. Our theory identifies that, in contrast to equilibrium fluids, this active surface tension contains contributions arising from nonconservative forces which act to suppress interfacial fluctuations and, crucially, is distinct from the mechanical surface tension of Kirkwood and Buff. Here we find that the interfacial stiffness scales linearly with the intrinsic persistence length of the constituent active particle trajectories, in agreement with simulation data. We demonstrate that at wavelengths much larger than the persistence length, the interface obeys surface-area minimizing Boltzmann statistics with our derived nonequilibrium interfacial stiffness playing a role identical to that of equilibrium systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Finite Bubble Statistics Constrain Late Cosmological Phase Transitions

We consider first order cosmological phase transitions (PTs) happening at late times below standard model temperatures T PT ≲ GeV. The inherently stochastic nature of bubble nucleation and the finite number of bubbles associated with a late-time PT lead to superhorizon fluctuations in the PT completion time. We compute how such fluctuations eventually source curvature fluctuations with universal properties, independent of the microphysics of the PT dynamics. Using cosmic microwave background (CMB) and large scale structure measurements, we constrain the energy released in a dark-sector PT. For 0.1 eV ≲ T PT ≲ keV this constraint is stronger than both the current bound from additional neutrino species Δ⁢N eff , and in some cases, even CMB-S4 projections. Future measurements of CMB spectral distortions and pulsar timing arrays will also provide competitive sensitivity for keV ≲ T PT ≲ GeV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

On the statistical theory of turbulence

A study is made of the spectrum of isotropic turbulence with the aid of the customary method of Fourier analysis. The spectrum of the turbulent motion is derived to the smallest wave lengths, that is, into the laminar region, and correlation functions and pressure fluctuations are calculated. A comparison with experimental results is included. Finally, an attempt is made to derive the numerical value of a constant characteristic of the energy dissipation in isotropic turbulence.

Heisenberg, W↗

The enhancement of solar wind fluctuations at the proton thermal gyroradius

Average power spectra of solar wind fluctuations at frequencies up to 0.87 Hz are calculated from Ogo 5 measurements of positive ion flux. Although the general spectral trend follows the power law spectrum observed at lower frequencies, a small but statistically significant power enhancement is observed at the frequency v/2(pi)R, where v is the solar wind velocity and R is the gyroradius of proton thermal motions in the solar wind. The measured power spectrum is in rough agreement with that deduced from radio scintillation observations.

Neugebauer, M.↗

Kinetic model of turbulence in an incompressible fluid

A statistical description of turbulence in an incompressible fluid obeying the Navier-Stokes equations is proposed, where pressure is regarded as a potential for the interaction between fluid elements. A scaling procedure divides a fluctuation into three ranks representing the three transport processes of macroscopic evolution, transport property, and relaxation. Closure is obtained by relaxation, and a kinetic equation is obtained for the fluctuation of the macroscopic rank of the distribution function. The solution gives the transfer function and eddy viscosity. When applied to the inertia subrange of the energy spectrum the analysis recovers the Kolmogorov law and its numerical coefficient.

Tchen, C. M.↗

Intensity moments by path integral techniques for wave propagation through random media, with application to sound in the ocean

A theory is developed which describes intensity moments for wave propagation through random media. It is shown using the path integral technique that these moments are significantly different from those of a Rayleigh distribution in certain asymptotic regions. The path integral approach is extended to inhomogeneous, anisotropic media possessing a strong deterministic velocity profile. The behavior of the corrections to Rayleigh statistics is examined, and it is shown that the important characteristics can be attributed to a local micropath focusing function. The correction factor gamma is a micropath focusing parameter defined in terms of medium fluctuations. The value of gamma is calculated for three ocean acoustic experiments, using internal waves as the medium fluctuations. It is found that all three experiments show excellent agreement as to the relative values of the intensity moments. The full curved ray is found to yield results that are significantly different from the straight-line approximations. It is noted that these methods are applicable to a variety of experimental situations, including atmospheric optics and radio waves through plasmas.

Bernstein, D. R.↗

Free tropospheric measurements of CS2 over a 45 deg N to 45 deg S latitude range

The mean value obtained from 52 free tropospheric measurements of CS2 over the 45 deg N-45 deg S latitude range was 5.7 pptv, with standard deviation and standard error of 1.9 and 0.3 pptv, respectively. Large fluctuations in the CS2 concentration are observed which reflect the apparent short atmospheric residence time and inhomogeneities in the surface sources of CS2. The amounts of CS2 in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are statistically equal.

Tucker, B. J.↗

The photosphere as a radiative boundary

The present characterization of the solar photosphere as a radiative boundary for the solar interior gives attention to both semiempirical and a priori models for the structure of emergent radiation, and emphasizes that any discussion of photospheric structures smaller than 300 km is easily compromised by the radiant integration over such scale lengths. Plane-parallel modes have indicated that Boltzmann-Saha statistics are largely valid over the photosphere save within 100 km of the temperature minimum. An evaluation is made of observational evidence for horizontal inhomogeneities and such characteristics as granular and temperature minimum region fluctuations, as well as the recent demonstration of relatively cold CO-absorbing regions.

Anderson, Lawrence S.↗

Multivariate space - time analysis of PRE-STORM precipitation

This paper presents the methodologies and results of the multivariate modeling and two-dimensional spectral and correlation analysis of PRE-STORM rainfall gauge data. Estimated parameters of the models for the specific spatial averages clearly indicate the eastward and southeastward wave propagation of rainfall fluctuations. A relationship between the coefficients of the diffusion equation and the parameters of the stochastic model of rainfall fluctuations is derived that leads directly to the exclusive use of rainfall data to estimate advection speed (about 12 m/s) as well as other coefficients of the diffusion equation of the corresponding fields. The statistical methodology developed here can be used for confirmation of physical models by comparison of the corresponding second-moment statistics of the observed and simulated data, for generating multiple samples of any size, for solving the inverse problem of the hydrodynamic equations, and for application in some other areas of meteorological and climatological data analysis and modeling.

Polyak, Ilya↗

Simulated cosmic microwave background maps at 0.5 deg resolution: Basic results

We have simulated full-sky maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy expected from cold dark matter (CDM) models at 0.5 deg and 1.0 deg angular resolution. Statistical properties of the maps are presented as a function of sky coverage, angular resolution, and instrument noise, and the implications of these results for observability of the Doppler peak are discussed. The rms fluctuations in a map are not a particularly robust probe of the existence of a Doppler peak; however, a full correlation analysis can provide reasonable sensitivity. We find that sensitivity to the Doppler peak depends primarily on the fraction of sky covered, and only secondarily on the angular resolution and noise level. Color plates of the simulated maps are presented to illustrate the anisotropies.

Hinshaw, G.↗

Modelling the Soft X-Ray and EUV Emission in Classical Novae: EUVE and ROSAT Observations of V1974 Cygni

We have conducted an extensive analysis of the observability of Classical Novae with the EUVE Lex/B and Al/Ti/C detectors. Predicted count rates have been computed using optically thin, isothermal plasma models for solar and metal-rich compositions, and hot ONeMg white dwarf model atmospheres. We find EUVE to be quite sensitive to both the EUV and soft X-ray emission emitted by the underlying hot white dwarf during novae outbursts, except for the coolest temperatures with very high intervening hydrogen column density. These results are used to interpret the emission detected during the EUVE all-sky survey of Nova Cygni 1992 (approx. = V1974 Cyg), 279-290 days after visual maximum. We find the best fit to the observed emission from V1974 Cyg arises from a hot ONeMg white dwarf with surface temperature approx. 4 x l0(exp 5) K and a mas of approx. 1.2 solar mass, and derive an interstellar hydrogen column density of approx. 3 x 10(exp 21)/sq cm. Virtually all this emission arises from supersoft X-rays rather than the EUV. We also report the detection of V1974 Cyg with the EUVE Deep Survey detector at 549 days after visual maximum. This observation is compatible with the above properties, indicating that the mechanism responsible for the soft X-ray emission, connected with the underlying white dwarf, had not yet entirely turned off. We also present analysis of a ROSAT PSPC observation which is contemporaneous with the EUVE survey observations; this independently confirms the high column density we derived from the EUVE survey observation. Light curves for the EUVE and ROSAT observations are presented. Statistical tests for variability show that all of these observations are indeed highly variable over various time scales. The EUVE survey data shows one day variations, the EUVE DS data show approx. 30 minute fluctuations, while the ROSAT data vary rapidly on time scales of seconds. The EUVE data shows no periodic variability on any time scale. The implications of the rapid variability are briefly discussed.

Stringfellow, Guy S.↗

Megadrought: A Series of Unfortunate La Niña Events?

Megadroughts are multidecadal periods of aridity more persistent than most droughts during the instrumental period. Paleoclimate evidence suggests that megadroughts occur in many parts of the world, including North America, Central America, western Europe, eastern Asia, and northern Africa. It remains unclear to what extent such megadroughts require external forcing or whether they can arise from internal climate variability alone. A novel statistical–dynamical approach is used to evaluate the possibility that such events arise solely as a function of interannual tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations. A statistical emulator of tropical SST variations is constructed by using an empirical moving-blocks bootstrap approach that randomly samples multiyear sequences of the observational SST record. This approach preserves the power spectrum, seasonal cycle, and spatial pattern of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but removes longer timescale fluctuations embedded in the observational record. These resampled SST anomalies are then used to force an atmospheric model (the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5). As megadroughts emerge in this run, they should, therefore, be solely a consequence of La Niña sequences combined with internal atmospheric variability and persistence driven by soil moisture storage and other land-surface processes. We indeed find that megadroughts in this simulation have an amplitude-duration rate that is generally indistinguishable from the rate documented in paleoclimate records of the western United States. Our findings support the idea that megadroughts may occur randomly when the unforced climate system evolves freely over a sufficiently long period of time, implying that an unforced unusual but statistically plausible series of La Niña events may be sufficient to generate megadrought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

What controls the interannual variation of Hadley cell extent in the Northern Hemisphere: physical mechanism and empirical model for edge variation

Abstract The Hadley circulation is the most prominent atmospheric meridional circulation, reducing the radiatively driven equator-to-pole temperature gradient. While the Hadley cell extent varies by several degrees from year to year, the detailed dynamical mechanisms behind such variations have not been well elucidated. During the expanded phase of the Hadley cell, many regions on the periphery of the subtropics experience unfavorable climatic conditions. In this study, using ERA5 reanalysis data, we examine the physical chain of events responsible for the interannual variation of the Hadley cell edge (HCE) latitude in the Northern Hemisphere. This variation is mainly caused by changing eddy activity and wave breaking from both stationary and transient waves. In particular, we show that transient waves cause the HCE to shift poleward by increasing the eddy momentum flux divergence (EMFD) and reducing the baroclinicity over 20°–40°N, shifting the region of peak baroclinicity poleward. El Niño/La Niña and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) account for a significant portion (60%) of the interannual fluctuation of the HCE latitude. Through the poleward displacement of eddy activity, La Niña and a positive AO state are associated with the poleward shift of the HCE. The analysis of 28 CMIP5 models reveals statistical relationships between EMFD, vertical shear, and HCE latitude similar to those observed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Anti-site defect-induced disorder in compensated topological magnet MnBi2-xSbxTe4

Abstract The gapped Dirac-like surface states of compensated magnetic topological insulator MnBi 2-x Sb x Te 4 (MBST) are a promising host for exotic quantum phenomena such as the quantum anomalous Hall effect and axion insulating state. However, it has become clear that atomic defects undermine the stabilization of such quantum phases as they lead to spatial variations in the surface state gap and doping levels. The large number of possible defect configurations in MBST make studying the influence of individual defects virtually impossible. Here, we present a statistical analysis of the nanoscale effect of defects in MBST with x =0.64, by scanning tunnelling microscopy/spectroscopy. We identify (Bi,Sb) Mn anti-site defects to be the main source of the observed doping fluctuations, leading towards the formation of nanoscale charge puddles and effectively closing the transport gap. Our findings will guide further optimization of this material system via defect engineering, to enable exploitation of its promising properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Parametric and Nonparametric Models of U.S. Cost Overruns for Nuclear Power Plants

This study presents new data-driven models to estimate the effect of capacity on the percentage of cost overruns in the United States for nuclear power plant construction projects before and after the Three Mile Island accident. Parametric and nonparametric models have been developed that describe the significant shifts in nuclear energy costs during the dynamic environment. Employing a contemporary descriptive methodology and a quantitative analysis, we furnish a comprehensive overview of the alterations in cost overrun distribution and show the changes observed in other pivotal metrics alongside cost overruns. Our emphasis lies in documenting the fluctuations in cost overruns alongside nuclear reactor capacity levels and the increase of the overnight capital costs to build nuclear reactors. Our results show that increasing the size of nuclear reactors is not a factor statistically significant to decrease the percentage of cost overruns, and the probit model results provide evidence that an increase in size increases the probability of having cost overruns larger than 100% (double the estimated cost). We also compare our findings to two other regions: Asia and Europe.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A novel methodology for gamma-ray spectra dataset procurement over varying standoff distances and source activities

The adoption of machine learning approaches for gamma-ray spectroscopy has received considerable attention in the literature. Many studies have investigated the deployment of various algorithm architectures to a specific task. However, little attention has been afforded to the development of the datasets leveraged to train the models. Such training datasets typically span a set of environmental or detector parameters to encompass a problem space of interest to a user. Variations in these measurement parameters will also induce fluctuations in the detector response, including expected pile-up and ground scatter effects. Fundamental to this work is the understanding that 1) the underlying spectral shape varies as the measurement parameters change and 2) the statistical uncertainties associated with two spectra impact their level of similarity. While previous studies attribute some arbitrary discretization to the measurement parameters for the generation of their synthetic training data, this work introduces a principled methodology for efficient spectral-based discretization of a problem space. A signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) respective spectral comparison measure and a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model are used to predict the spectral similarity across a range of measurement parameters. This innovative approach effectively showcased its capability by dividing a problem space, ranging from 5 cm to 100 cm standoff distances and 5 μCi–100 μCi of 137 Cs, into three unique combinations of measurement parameters. The findings from this work will aid in creating more robust datasets, which incorporate many possible measurement scenarios, reduce the number of required experimental test set measurements, and possibly enable experimental training data collection for gamma-ray spectroscopy.

data science↗

A vortex model of cavity flow

The paper presents a model of two-dimensional cavity flow in which the shear layer over the cavity is represented by discrete rectilinear vortices which are free to move as the flow progresses. Although the model is initially started impulsively, the computation is continued until a statistically steady flow is attained. The broadband noise generation of the cavity is calculated by first running the model until the steady state is reached and then computing a stationary record of far-field density fluctuation through an equation that is suitable for calculating the quadrupole noise generation by the model. The discrete time series obtained can be analyzed by ordinary digital spectral techniques to determine the spectra and overall levels of the noise in airframe noise testing of real aircraft.

Hardin, J. C.↗