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At least 631 records · Page 35

Intercomparison of MJO Column Moist Static Energy and Water Vapor Budget among Six Modern Reanalysis Products

This study conducts an intercomparison of the column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) and water vapor budget of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) among six modern global reanalysis products (RAs). Inter-RA differences in the mean MSE, MJO MSE anomalies, individual MSE budget terms, and their relative contributions to the propagation and maintenance of MJO MSE anomalies are examined. Also investigated is the relationship between the MJO column water vapor (CWV) budget residuals with the other CWV budget terms as well as with the two parameters that characterize cloud–radiation feedback and moisture–convection coupling. Results show a noticeable inter-RA spread in the mean-state MSE, especially its vertical structure. In all RAs, horizontal MSE advection dominates the propagation of the MJO MSE while column-integrated longwave radiative heating and vertical MSE advection are found to be the key processes for MJO maintenance. The MSE budget terms directly affected by the model parameterization schemes exhibit high uncertainty. The differences in anomalous vertical velocity mainly contribute to the large differences in vertical MSE advection among the RAs. The budget residuals show large inter-RA differences and have nonnegligible contributions to MJO maintenance and propagation in most RAs. RAs that underestimate (overestimate) the strength of cloud–radiation feedback and the convective moisture adjustment time scale tend to have positive (negative) MJO CWV budget residual, indicating the critical role of these processes in the maintenance of MJO CWV anomalies. Our results emphasize that a correct representation of the interactions among moisture, convection, cloud, and radiation is the key for an accurate depiction of the MJO MSE and CWV budget in RAs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

System efficiency of packed bed TES with radial flow vs. axial flow – Influence of aspect ratio

Here, this paper compares the net system efficiency, including thermal efficiency and pressure drop effects, of radial versus axial flow packed beds for thermal energy storage. The traditional packed bed system is a cylindrical geometry where fluid flows axially from one end to another. However, issues of thermal stratification and high-pressure drop have led to recent studies on radial flow systems. One potential benefit is the reduced pressure drop in a radial flow system. This paper compares the performance of radial flow and axial flow systems at a range of aspect ratios (AR = H/D bed ) from 0.21 to 1.92 using a numerical model where the storage volume is held constant in all cases. When the radial flow bed is at a low aspect ratio (short/wide), the thermal front is improved but the pressure drop is high. At a high aspect ratio, the velocity is reduced in radial flow, leading to decreased pressure drop but an increased spreads in the thermal front that lowers thermal efficiency. The opposite trends are noted in axial flow. Thermal efficiencies of 83–91 % were noted for radial flow, while they ranged from 85 to 94 % in axial flow. Net efficiencies including pressure drop ranged from 74 to 82 % for radial flow and 80–87 % for axial flow. In both systems, a peak net efficiency was noted between the highest and lowest aspect ratio. While some aspect ratios with radial flow outperform axial flow from a net efficiency perspective, the results show that the highest net efficiency from axial flow is higher than that from radial flow. Overall, this paper highlights the importance of innovative TES designs and their potential to improve energy efficiency.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Contributions of biofilm-induced flow heterogeneities to solute retention and anomalous transport features in porous media

We report that microbial biofilms are ubiquitous within porous media and the dynamics of their growth influence surface and subsurface flow patterns which impacts the physical properties of porous media and large-scale transport of solutes. Here, a two-dimensional pore-scale numerical model was used to evaluate the impact of biofilm-induced flow heterogeneities on conservative transport. Our study integrates experimental biofilm images of Paenibacillus 300A strain in a microfluidic device packed with cylindrical grains in a hexagonal distribution, with mathematical modeling. Biofilm is represented as a synthetic porous structure with locally varying physical properties that honors the impact of biofilm on the porous medium. We find that biofilm plays a major role in shaping the observed conservative transport dynamics by enhancing anomalous characteristics. More specifically, when biofilm is present, the pore structure in our geometry becomes more spatially correlated. We observe intermittent behavior in the Lagrangian velocities that switches between fast transport periods and long trapping events. Our results suggest that intermittency enhances solute spreading in breakthrough curves which exhibit extreme anomalous slope at intermediate times and very marked late solute arrival due to solute retention. The efficiency of solute retention by the biofilm is controlled by a transport regime which can extend the tailing in the concentration breakthrough curves. These results indicate that solute retention by the biofilm exerts a strong control on conservative solute transport at pore-scale, a role that to date has not received enough attention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric River Detection Under Changing Seasonality and Mean-State Climate: ARTMIP Tier 2 Paleoclimate Experiments

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filamentary structures within the atmosphere that account for a substantial portion of poleward moisture transport and play an important role in Earth's hydroclimate. However, there is no one quantitative definition for what constitutes an atmospheric river, leading to uncertainty in quantifying how these systems respond to global change. This study seeks to better understand how different AR detection tools (ARDTs) respond to changes in climate states utilizing single-forcing climate model experiments under the aegis of the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP). We compare a simulation with an early Holocene orbital configuration and another with CO2 levels of the Last Glacial Maximum to a preindustrial control simulation to test how the ARDTs respond to changes in seasonality and mean climate state, respectively. We find good agreement among the algorithms in the AR response to the changing orbital configuration, with a poleward shift in AR frequency that tracks seasonal poleward shifts in atmospheric water vapor and zonal winds. In the low CO2 simulation, the algorithms generally agree on the sign of AR changes, but there is substantial spread in their magnitude, indicating that mean-state changes lead to larger uncertainty. This disagreement likely arises primarily from differences between algorithms in their thresholds for water vapor and its transport used for identifying ARs. These findings warrant caution in ARDT selection for paleoclimate and climate change studies in which there is a change to the mean climate state, as ARDT selection contributes substantial uncertainty in such cases.

Atmospheric river, paleoclimate↗

Joint CO 2 Mole Fraction and Flux Analysis Confirms Missing Processes in CASA Terrestrial Carbon Uptake Over North America

Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) play a key role in the detection and attribution of carbon cycle processes at local to global scales and in projections of the coupled carbon-climate system. TBM evaluation commonly involves direct comparison to eddy-covariance flux measurements. This study uses atmospheric CO 2 mole fraction ([CO 2 ]) measured in situ from aircraft and tower, in addition to flux-measurements from summer 2016 to evaluate the CASA TBM. WRF-Chem is used to simulate [CO 2 ] using biogenic CO 2 fluxes from a CASA parameter-based ensemble and CarbonTracker version 2017 (CT2017) in addition to transport and CO 2 boundary condition ensembles. The resulting “super ensemble” of modeled [CO 2 ] demonstrates that the biosphere introduces the majority of uncertainty to the simulations. Both aircraft and tower [CO 2 ] data show that the CASA ensemble net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 is biased high (NEE too positive) and identify the maximum light use efficiency E max a key parameter that drives the spread of the CASA ensemble in summer 2016. These findings are verified with flux-measurements. The direct comparison of the CASA flux ensemble with flux-measurements confirms missing sink processes in CASA. Separating the daytime and nighttime flux, we discover that the underestimated net uptake results from missing sink processes that result in overestimation of respiration. NEE biases are smaller in the CT2017 posterior biogenic fluxes, which assimilates observed [CO 2 ]. Flux tower analyses, however, reveal an unrealistic overestimation of nighttime respiration in CT2017 due to the limitation of inversion strategy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Neutronics Calculation Advances at Los Alamos: Manhattan Project to Monte Carlo

The history and advances of neutronics calculations at Los Alamos during the Manhattan Project through the present are reviewed. Substantial improvements to neutron diffusion methods and the invention of both the Monte Carlo neutron transport methods in 1947 and deterministic discrete ordinates Sn in 1953 were all made at Los Alamos just after the Manhattan Project. We briefly summarize early simpler and more approximate neutronics methods and then describe the need to better predict neutronics behavior through consideration of theoretical equations, models and algorithms, experimental measurements, and available computing capabilities and their limitations. This paper briefly covers key advances in deterministic methods during the Manhattan Project. These capabilities, coupled with increasing postwar defense needs and the invention of electronic computing with the Electronic Numeric Integrator and Computer, known as ENIAC, and the Mathematical Analyzer Numerical Integrator and Automatic Computer Model, known as MANIAC, led to the creation of Monte Carlo and deterministic discrete ordinates neutronics transport methods. We note the important role that the scientific comradery between the Los Alamos scientists played in the process. This paper briefly covers the early methods, algorithms, computers, and electronic and women pioneers that enabled Monte Carlo to spread to all areas of science. We focus heavily on these early developments and the subsequent creation of the MCNP® code, advances in its associated nuclear data, and its applications to problems of national defense at Los Alamos.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Electricity Market Dynamics as Smooth Games: Organizing Gradient-Based Learners and Identifying Instabilities

Wide-spread adoption of machine learning and distributed energy production has the potential to fundamentally change behaviours of energy markets. In practice, along with the benefits, previously unseen instabilities have begun emerging in markets currently embracing these technologies. In this report we study electricity markets as dynamical systems arising in smooth games, where energy consumers are modelled as gradient-based learners who interact on a graph through distributed energy producers. We give simple examples of how instabilities can arise even when the consumers’ local objectives seem reasonable and how these instabilities can be remedied. Drawing insights from these examples, we begin developing a general model of optimization-driven electricity market dynamics and give conditions for ensuring local Nash equilibria of the system are stable fixed points of the dynamics. Our results demonstrate how models of electricity market dynamics might be used for deriving formal guarantees in order to stabilize markets and enact regulatory policies in the face of market shocks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Regional climate change projections from NA-CORDEX and their relation to climate sensitivity

Abstract The climate sensitivity of global climate models (GCMs) strongly influences projected climate change due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. Reasonably, the climate sensitivity of a GCM may be expected to affect dynamically downscaled projections. However, there has been little examination of the effect of the climate sensitivity of GCMs on regional climate model (RCM) ensembles. Therefore, we present projections of temperature and precipitation from the ensemble of projections produced as a part of the North American branch of the international Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) in the context of their relationship to the climate sensitivity of their parent GCMs. NA-CORDEX simulations were produced at 50-km and 25-km resolutions with multiple RCMs which downscaled multiple GCMs that spanned nearly the full range of climate sensitivity available in the CMIP5 archive. We show that climate sensitivity is a very important source of spread in the NA-CORDEX ensemble, particularly for temperature. Temperature projections correlate with driving GCM climate sensitivity annually and seasonally across North America not only at a continental scale but also at a local-to-regional scale. Importantly, the spread in temperature projections would be reduced if only low, mid, or high climate sensitivity simulations were considered, or if only the ensemble mean were considered. Precipitation projections correlate with climate sensitivity, but only at a continental scale during the cold season, due to the increasing influence of other processes at finer scales. Additionally, it is shown that the RCMs do alter the projection space sampled by their driving GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling of emittance growth due to Coulomb collisions in plasma-based accelerators

Coulomb collisions with background plasma are one source of emittance degradation in plasma accelerators. This work shows that the emittance growth due to Coulomb collisions can be correctly captured in particle-in-cell simulations, with a proper Monte Carlo binary collision module. The theory of the emittance growth due to Coulomb collisions is extended from a monoenergetic matched beam to a mismatched beam with energy spread and is compared with simulation results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A high-resolution large-eddy simulation framework for wildland fire predictions using TensorFlow

Background: Wildfires are becoming more severe, so we need improved tools to predict them over a wide range of conditions and scales. One approach towards this goal entails the use of coupled fire/atmosphere modelling tools. Although significant progress has been made in advancing their physical fidelity, existing tools have not taken full advantage of emerging programming paradigms and computing architectures to enable high-resolution wildfire simulations. Aims: The aim of this study was to present a new framework that enables landscape-scale wildfire simulations with physical representation of combustion at an affordable cost. Methods: We developed a coupled fire/atmosphere simulation framework using TensorFlow, which enables efficient and scalable computations on Tensor Processing Units. Key Results: Simulation results for a prescribed fire were compared with experimental data. Predicted fire behavior and statistical analysis for fire spread rate, scar area, and intermittency showed overall reasonable agreement. Scalability analysis was performed, showing close to linear scaling. Conclusions: While mesh refinement was shown to have less impact on global quantities, such as fire scar area and spread rate, it benefits predictions of intermittent fire behavior, buoyancy-driven dynamics, and small-scale turbulent motion. Implications: This new simulation framework is efficient in capturing both global quantities and unsteady dynamics of wildfires at high spatial resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microscale THMC Modeling of Pressure Solution in Salt Rock: Impacts of Geometry and Temperature

Abstract Pressure solution, a mechanism that involves tight coupling between the geometry and thermal-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes, plays an important role in diagenesis. In this study, we make the first attempt to conduct microscale THMC modeling to understand and quantify the impacts of geometry and temperature on pressure solution, taking natural salt rock as an example. This modeling capability is achieved by expanding a novel MC code that we developed previously (Hu et al. J Geophys Res: Solid Earth 126:e2021JB023112, 2021) to include temperature effects. We first conduct a simulation of an example that involves a single brine inclusion within a single halite grain and find that the temperature impact is limited for that case. We then extract geometry from an image of a natural salt rock and conduct simulations with different cases: (A) only temperature and no stress, (B) only stress and no temperature, and (C) with both stress and temperature. These different cases result in quite different phenomena. In case A, dissolution and precipitation occur across the entire system due to isolated pore space reaching a localized mass balance between dissolution, precipitation, and diffusion. In case B, intense geometric features (e.g., major asperities, inclusions) in one area undergo stress concentration, thus dominating pressure solution in that area. In case C, pressure solution is spread out at contacting highly stressed geometric features close to the hotter side. We conclude that geometric features dominate stress distribution, thus dominating pressure solution in a natural salt rock that may be affected by the temperature if a sufficient temperature gradient is applied.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

X-ray linear dichroic ptychography

Biominerals such as seashells, coral skeletons, bone, and tooth enamel are optically anisotropic crystalline materials with unique nanoscale and microscale organization that translates into exceptional macroscopic mechanical properties, providing inspiration for engineering new and superior biomimetic structures. Using Seriatopora aculeata coral skeleton as a model, here, we experimentally demonstrate X-ray linear dichroic ptychography and map the c-axis orientations of the aragonite (CaCO 3 ) crystals. Linear dichroic phase imaging at the oxygen K-edge energy shows strong polarization-dependent contrast and reveals the presence of both narrow (<35°) and wide (>35°) c-axis angular spread in the coral samples. These X-ray ptychography results are corroborated by four-dimensional (4D) scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) on the same samples. Evidence of co-oriented, but disconnected, corallite subdomains indicates jagged crystal boundaries consistent with formation by amorphous nanoparticle attachment. We expect that the combination of X-ray linear dichroic ptychography and 4D STEM could be an important multimodal tool to study nano-crystallites, interfaces, nucleation, and mineral growth of optically anisotropic materials at multiple length scales.

4D scanning transmission electron microscopy↗

Operator dynamics in Floquet many-body systems

We study operator dynamics in many-body quantum systems, focusing on generic features of systems that are ergodic, spatially extended, and lack conserved densities. Quantum circuits of various types provide simple models for such systems. We focus on Floquet quantum circuits, comparing their behavior with what has been found previously for circuits that are random in time. Floquet circuits, which have discrete time-translation symmetry, represent an intermediate case between circuits that are random in time and lack any symmetry, and systems with a time-independent Hamiltonian and continuous time-translation invariance. By making this comparison, one of our aims is to identify signatures of time-translation symmetry in Floquet operator dynamics. To characterize behavior we examine a variety of quantities in solvable models and numerically: operator autocorrelation functions; the partial spectral form factor; the out-of-time-order correlator (OTOC); and the paths in operator space that make the dominant contributions to the ensemble-averaged autocorrelation functions. Our most striking result is that ensemble-averaged autocorrelation functions show behavior that is distinctively different in Floquet systems compared to systems in which successive time-steps are independent. Specifically, while average autocorrelation functions decay on a microscopic timescale for circuits that are random in time, in Floquet systems they have a late-time tail with a duration that grows parametrically with the size of the operator support. In the simplest models this tail is separated from the initial decay by a minimum, so that the average autocorrelation function has an intermediate-time peak. The existence of these tails provides a way to understand deviations of the spectral form factor from random matrix behavior at times shorter than the Thouless time. In contrast to this feature in autocorrelation functions, we find no new aspects to the behavior of OTOCs for Floquet models compared to random-in-time circuits. We show that this difference between averaged autocorrelation functions and OTOCs can be understood in terms of the paths in operator space that contribute to the two quantities: paths for the former retain a limited support at late times, while paths for the latter are dominated by operator spreading. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Yoshimura, Takato (ORCID:0000000309159846)↗

Multiscale Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne disease transmission is central to many scientific disciplines, including agriculture, veterinary biosafety, medicine, and public health. Legal and regulatory standards are in place to prevent agricultural, nosocomial, and community airborne disease transmission. However, the overall importance of the airborne pathway is underappreciated; e.g., the U.S. National Library of Medicine’s Medical Subjects Headings (MESH) thesaurus lacks an airborne disease transmission indexing term. This has practical consequences, as airborne precautions to control epidemic disease spread may not be taken when airborne transmission is important but unrecognized. Publishing clearer practical methodological guidelines for surveillance studies and disease outbreak evaluations could help address this situation. To inform future work, this paper highlights selected, well-established airborne transmission events, largely cases replicated in multiple, independently conducted scientific studies. Methodologies include field experiments, modeling, epidemiology studies, disease outbreak investigations, and mitigation studies. Collectively, this literature demonstrates that airborne viruses, bacteria, and fungal pathogens have the ability to cause disease in plants, animals, and humans over multiple distances, from near range (<5 m) to continental (>500 km) in scale. The plausibility and implications of undetected airborne disease transmission are discussed, including the notable underreporting of disease burdens for several airborne-transmitted diseases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Biomass burning aerosol radiative effects in the Southeast Atlantic depend strongly on meteorological forcing method

Biomass burning aerosols (BBAs) from African fires may strongly impact Earth’s radiation budget in the southeast Atlantic (SEA), but the sign and magnitude of the overall radiative effect (RE) remain uncertain. Aerosol–climate models are needed to separately quantify direct, indirect, and semi-direct REs. Here, we evaluate improved simulations with the UK Met Office's Unified Model and explore REs resulting from various methods used to match observed meteorology (nudging or running forecasts reinitialized at different frequencies). REs are calculated as differences in radiative fluxes between simulations with and without smoke emissions and with and without aerosol absorption. All model setups agree on net warming for the SEA dominated by the direct effect. Simulated smoke, clouds, and the direct effect agree better with observations than previous studies using the same model, though biases in aerosol extinction and liquid water path remain. Changes in cloud droplet number concentration due to BBA self-lofting influence how cleanly we can separate cloud effects into semi-direct and indirect effects. Total RE, which remains unaffected, ranges from +3.0 to +7.9 W m −2 . The 4.9 W m −2 spread arises mainly from simulated semi-direct effects. Forecasts three days long or less probably do not allow time for plausible differences in boundary layer properties due to semi-direct effects to accumulate. Free running simulations with and without smoke accumulate differences in meteorology that are likely spurious “butterfly effects”. We recommend future research quantifying BBA REs over weeks to months to use meteorological forcing techniques that allow aerosol absorption to affect the boundary layer.

Giuffrida, Eric [Carnegie Mellon University, Pitts↗

Adaptive changes in sexual behavior in the high–risk population in response to human monkeypox transmission in Canada can help control the outbreak: Insights from a two–group, two–route epidemic model

Monkeypox, a zoonotic disease, is emerging as a potential sexually transmitted infection/disease, with underlying transmission mechanisms still unclear. We devised a risk-structured, compartmental model, incorporating sexual behavior dynamics. We compared different strategies targeting the high-risk population: a scenario of control policies geared toward the use of condoms and/or sexual abstinence (robust control strategy) with risk compensation behavior change, and a scenario of control strategies with behavior change in response to the doubling rate (adaptive control strategy). Monkeypox's basic reproduction number is 1.464, 0.0066, and 1.461 in the high-risk, low-risk, and total populations, respectively, with the high-risk group being the major driver of monkeypox spread. Policies imposing condom use or sexual abstinence need to achieve a 35% minimum compliance rate to stop further transmission, while a combination of both can curb the spread with 10% compliance to abstinence and 25% to condom use. With risk compensation, the only option is to impose sexual abstinence by at least 35%. Adaptive control is more effective than robust control where the daily sexual contact number is reduced proportionally and remains constant thereafter, shortening the time to epidemic peak, lowering its size, facilitating disease attenuation, and playing a key role in controlling the current outbreak.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Floquet Engineering of Interactions and Entanglement in Periodically Driven Rydberg Chains

Neutral atom arrays driven into Rydberg states constitute a promising approach for realizing programmable quantum systems. Enabled by strong interactions associated with Rydberg blockade, they allow for simulation of complex spin models and quantum dynamics. We introduce a new Floquet engineering technique for systems in the blockade regime that provides control over novel forms of interactions and entanglement dynamics in such systems. Our approach is based on time-dependent control of Rydberg laser detuning and leverages perturbations around periodic many-body trajectories as resources for operator spreading. These time-evolved operators are utilized as a basis for engineering interactions in the effective Hamiltonian describing the stroboscopic evolution. As an example, we show how our method can be used to engineer strong spin exchange, consistent with the blockade, in a one-dimensional chain, enabling the exploration of gapless Luttinger liquid phases. In addition, we demonstrate that combining gapless excitations with Rydberg blockade can lead to dynamic generation of large-scale multipartite entanglement. Experimental feasibility and possible generalizations are discussed.

Floquet systems↗

Injection, confinement, and diagnosis of electrons and positrons in a permanent magnet dipole trap

Abstract Prerequisites for the goal of studying long-lived, magnetically confined, electron–positron pair plasmas in the laboratory include the injection of both species into the trap, long trapping times, and suitable diagnostic methods. Here we report recent progress on these tasks achieved in a simple dipole trap based on a supported permanent magnet. For the injection of electrons, both an $$\textbf{E}\times B$$ E × B drift technique (of a $$\sim $$ ∼ 2– $$\upmu $$ μ A, 6-eV beam) and “edge injection” (from a filament emitting a few mA and biased to some tens of volts) have been demonstrated; the former is suitable for low-density beams with smaller spatial and velocity spreads, while the latter employs fluctuations arising from collective behavior. To diagnose the edge-injected electrons, image potentials and currents induced on a wall probe, the magnet case, and wall electrodes were measured. Confinement of drift-injected positrons, measured experimentally, exhibited at least two well-separated timescales. Simulations reproduced this qualitatively, using a simple model of elastic collisions with residual background gas, and point to small adjustments for increasing trapping times. In a major upgrade to diagnostic capabilities, 25 bismuth germanate detectors, placed in three reentrant ports, are able to localize annihilation gammas, which will be used in future experiments to distinguish between different loss channels. Graphical abstract

von der Linden, J. (ORCID:0000000327477813)↗