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Space transfer vehicle concepts and requirements study. Volume 1: Executive summary

A description of the study in terms of background, objectives, and issues is provided. NASA is currently studying new initiatives of space exploration involving both piloted and unpiloted missions to destinations throughout the solar system. Many of these missions require substantial improvements in launch vehicle and upper stage capabilities. This study provides a focused examination of the Space Transfer Vehicles (STV) required to perform these missions using the emerging national launch vehicle definition, the Space Station Freedom (SSF) definition, and the latest mission scenario requirements. The study objectives are to define preferred STV concepts capable of accommodating future exploration missions in a cost-effective manner, determine the technology development (if any) required to perform these missions, and develop a decision database of various programmatic approaches for the development of the STV family of vehicles. Special emphasis was given to examining space basing (stationing reusable vehicles at a space station), examining the piloted lunar mission as a primary design mission, and restricting trade studies to the high-performance, near-term cryogenics (LO2/LH2) as vehicle propellant. The study progressed through three distinct 6-month phases. The first phase concentrated on supporting a NASA 3 month definition of exploration requirements (the '90-day study') and during this phase developed and optimized the space-based point-of-departure (POD) 2.5-stage lunar vehicle. The second phase developed a broad decision database of 95 different vehicle options and transportation architectures. The final phase chose the three most cost-effective architectures and developed point designs to carry to the end of the study. These reference vehicle designs are mutually exclusive and correspond to different national choices about launch vehicles and in-space reusability. There is, however, potential for evolution between concepts.

Weber, Gary A.↗

Spectroscopy of candidate young globular clusters in NGC 1275

We present spectra of the brightest member of the population of compact blue objects discovered in the peculiar galaxy NGC 1275 by Holtzman et al. (1992) using Hubble Space Telescope images. These spectra show strong Balmer absorption lines like those observed in A-type stars, as expected if the object is a young globular cluster. The age estimated from the strength of the Balmer lines is about 0.5 Gyr, although ages ranging from 0.1 Gyr to 0.9 Gyr cannot be confidently excluded given current models of stellar populations. If these estimated ages are adopted for the young cluster population of NGC 1275 as a whole, the fading predicted by stellar populations models gives a luminosity function which is consistent with that of the Galactic globular cluster system convolved with the observational selection function for the NGC 1275 system. We also use the equivalent widths of the Mg b and Fe 5270 features to constrain the metallicity of the young cluster. Combining these absorption-line widths with the age estimates from the Balmer lines and stellar population models, we find a metallicity of roughly solar, based on the Mg b index, and somewhat higher for the Fe 5270 index. The radial velocity of the absorption lines of the cluster spectrum is offset from the emission lines of the galaxy spectrum at the same position by - 130 km/s, providing further evidence for the identification of the object as a global cluster and opening up the future possibility of studying the kinematics of young cluster systems. The discovery of objects with the characteristics of young globular clusters in NGC 1275, which shows evidence of a recent interaction or merger, supports the hypothesis that galaxy interactions and mergers are favorable sites for the formation of globular clusters.

Zepf, Stephen E.↗

Energy Model of an Air Source Heat Pump to Explore Performance Improvements under Cold Conditions: A Python Framework: Preprint

Replacing combustion appliances with heat pumps can be part of a strategy to electrify buildings. When their electricity is supplied by renewables, the adoption of heat pumps for space heating may help curb the carbon dioxide emissions inherent to traditional heating systems that burn natural gas or coal. When operating in very cold climates, however, heat pump performance deteriorates, sometimes requiring backup heating supplied by electric resistances or other sources to continue to function. To avoid the use of electric resistances, complementary technologies, like thermal energy storage, solar collectors, or alternative refrigerants, have been explored in recent years. In this study, we present an open-source Python-based numerical model developed to evaluate the annual hourly performance of an air source heat pump (ASHP) operating in the USA. Simulation results include coefficient of performance and heating capacity. The model, validated with experimental results, will be employed in the future to investigate the feasibility of integrating thermal energy storage and other technologies into ASHPs operating in cold climates.

cold climate↗

Atmospheric Instrument Systems and Technology in the Goddard Earth Sciences Division

Studies of the Earth’s atmosphere require a comprehensive set of observations that rely on instruments flown on spacecraft, aircraft, and balloons as well as those deployed on the surface. Within NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Earth Sciences Division-Atmospheres, laboratories and offices maintain an active program of instrument system development and observational studies that provide: 1) information leading to a basic understanding of atmospheric processes and their relationships with the Earth’s climate system, 2) prototypes for future flight instruments, 3) instruments to serve as calibration references for satellite missions, and 4) instruments for future field validation campaigns that support ongoing space missions. Our scientists participate in all aspects of instrument activity, including component and system design, calibration techniques, retrieval algorithm development, and data processing systems. The Atmospheres Program has well-equipped labs and test equipment to support the development and testing of instrument systems, such as a radiometric calibration and development facility to support the calibration of ultraviolet and visible (UV/VIS), space-borne solar backscatter instruments. This document summarizes the features and characteristics of 46 instrument systems that currently exist or are under development. The report is organized according to active, passive, or in situ remote sensing across the electromagnetic spectrum. Most of the systems are considered operational in that they have demonstrated performance in the field and are capable of being deployed on relatively short notice. Other systems are under study or of low technical readiness level (TRL). The systems described herein are designed mainly for surface or airborne platforms. However, two Cubesat systems also have been developed through collaborative efforts. The Solar Disk Sextant (SDS) is the single balloon-borne instrument. The lidar systems described herein are designed to retrieve clouds, aerosols, methane, water vapor pressure, temperature, and winds. Most of the lasers operate at some wavelength combination of 355, 532, and 1064 nm. The various systems provide high sensitivity measurements based on returns from backscatter or Raman scattering including intensity and polarization. Measurements of the frequency (Doppler) shift of light scattered from various atmospheric constitutes can also be made. Microwave sensors consist of both active (radar) and passive (radiometer) systems. These systems are important for studying processes involving water in various forms. The dielectric properties of water affect microwave brightness temperatures, which are used to retrieve atmospheric parameters such as rainfall rate and other key elements of the hydrological cycle. Atmosphere radar systems operate in the range from 9.6 GHz to 94 GHz and have measurement accuracies from -5 to 1 dBZ; radiometers operate in the 50 GHz to 874 GHz range with accuracies from 0.5 to 1 degree K; conical and cross-track scan modes are used. Our passive optical sensors, consisting of radiometers and spectrometers, collectively operate from the UV into the infrared. These systems measure energy fluxes and atmospheric parameters such as trace gases, aerosols, cloud properties, or altitude profiles of various species. Imager spatial resolution varies from 37 m to 400 m depending on altitude; spectral resolution is as small as 0.5 nm. Many of the airborne systems have been developed to fly on multiple aircraft.

Platnick, Steven E.↗

Terrestrial imaging spectrometry - Current status, future trends

A review of recent progress in the field of imaging spectrometry is presented based on the 14 articles comprising the special issue of this journal. The results presented were achieved through research done with data from the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS), the first imaging spectrometer to cover the full solar reflected portion of the spectrum. The majority of the early work in imaging spectrometry prior to AVIRIS focused largely on geological applications and specifically surface mineral identification. In the past 5 years, the range of applications has expanded into the scientific disciplines of ecology, hydrology, oceanography, and atmospheric science. Significant progress has also been made in sensor design and calibration, and information extraction. NASA plans to place high spectral resolution sensors in earth orbit within the next few years; two have been flown already on recent planetary missions and have proven to be of great value to the study of planetary surfaces and atmospheres. The work presented in this issue will lead directly to more effective utilization of imaging spectrometry in the study of the earth. We present a discussion of future trends in imaging spectrometry at the conclusion of this article.

Vane, Gregg↗

Cosmic dust and space debris; Proceedings of the Topical Meetings and Workshop 6 of the 26th COSPAR Plenary Meeting, Toulouse, France, June 30-July 11, 1986

These proceedings encompass topics in the fields of extraterrestrial material samples, IRAS solar system and dust model results, and earth orbit debris. Attention is given to chemical fractionation during high velocity impact, particle deceleration and survival in multiple thin foil targets, and IRAS studies of asteroids, comets, cometary tails, the zodiacal background, and the three-dimensional modeling of interplanetary dust. Also discussed are the evolution of an earth orbit debris cloud, orbital debris due to future space activities, collision probabilities in geosynchronous orbits, and a bitelescopic survey of low altitude orbital debris.

Mcdonnell, J. A. M.↗

Hypervelocity impact facility for simulating materials exposure to impact by space debris

The Space Power Institute at Auburn University has constructed an electromagnetically driven particle accelerator for simulating the effects of space debris on the materials for use in advanced spacecraft. The facility consists of a capacitively driven accelerator section, a drift tube and a specimen impact chamber. The drift tube is sufficiently long that all electrical activity has ceased prior to impact in the specimen chamber. The impact chamber is large enough to allow a wide range of specimen geometries, ranging from small coupons to active portions of advanced spacecraft. The electric drive for the accelerator consists of a 67 kJ, 50 k capacitor bank arranged in a low inductance configuration. The bank is discharged through an aluminum armature/plastic ablator plate/projectile load in roughly 1.2 microsec. The evaporation of the ablaitor plate produces an expanding gas slug, mostly H2, traveling at a velocity of some 60 km/sec. Because of the pressure and local density, the expanding gas cloud accelerates projectiles due to plasma drag. To date, we have utilized projectiles consisting of 100 micron SiC, 100 and 400 micron Al2O3, 100 and 145 micron olivines. Since many particles are accelerated in a given experiment, there is a range of velocities for each shot as well as some particle breakup. Advanced diagnostics techniques allow determination of impact coordinates, velocity, and approximate size for as many as 50 individual impacts in a given experiment. We routinely measure velocities in the range 1-15 km/sec. We have used this facility to study a variety of impact generated phenomena on coated surfaces, both paint and plastic, thermal blanket material, solar cell arrays, and optical materials such as glass and quartz lenses. The operating characteristics of the gun, the advanced diagnostic scheme, and the results of studies of crater morphology are described in detail. Projectile residue analysis, as a function of impact velocity for the materials listed above, is also discussed. Wherever possible, these results are compared to those obtained by LDEF investigators and future experiments suggested which could help to explain unique features associated with LDEF impacts.

Rose, M. Frank↗

Flight project data book, 1991

The Office of Space Science and Applications (OSSA) is responsible for planning, directing, executing, and evaluating that part of the overall NASA program that has as its goal the use of the unique characteristics of the space environment to conduct a scientific study of the universe, to solve practical problems on Earth, and to provide the scientific research foundation for expanding human presence beyond Earth into the solar system. OSSA manages the development of NASA's flight instrumentation for space science and applications including free flying spacecraft, Shuttle and Space Station payloads, and the suborbital sounding rockets, balloons, and aircraft programs. A summary is provided of future flight missions, including those approved and currently under development and those which appear in the OSSA strategic plan.

Source record↗

Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) for High Velocity Earth Entry Missions

The fastest man-made object to re-enter into Earth’s atmosphere, with an entry velocity of 12.8 km/s, was the Stardust capsule, which returned samples from the comet Wild 2. Sample return missions offer high and long-lasting science yield; as such, they are discussed repeatedly in the latest planetary science decadal survey, titled Origins, Worlds, and Life. An advantage of sample return missions over in situ measurements is the ability to use state-of-the-art instruments that are not limited in power, size, or complexity; conversely, in situ measurements rely on instruments optimized to fit within the limitations of the spacecraft. Additionally, sample return provides the opportunity to revisit samples as analysis techniques improve as well as to further investigate unanticipated or ambiguous results. As launch vehicle and propulsion technologies continue to advance, it is becoming feasible to consider sample return missions from further out in the Solar System beyond Mars orbit. However, returning samples from increasingly distant destinations comes with high entry velocities, and thus requires ever more capable thermal protection systems (TPS). Evaluating the capabilities of existing mature TPS materials for a range of entry conditions and sample return aeroshell configurations is key to establishing the feasibility of future mission proposals. As such, this presentation describes the comprehensive trade study done to evaluate the feasibility of high velocity Earth entry missions with the currently available TPS materials.

Hannah S Alpert↗

Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) for High Velocity Earth Entry Missions

The fastest man-made object to re-enter into Earth’s atmosphere, with an entry velocity of 12.8 km/s, was the Stardust capsule, which returned samples from the comet Wild 2. Sample return missions offer high and long-lasting science yield; as such, they are discussed repeatedly in the latest planetary science decadal survey, titled Origins, Worlds, and Life. An advantage of sample return missions over in situ measurements is the ability to use state-of-the-art instruments that are not limited in power, size, or complexity; conversely, in situ measurements rely on instruments optimized to fit within the limitations of the spacecraft. Additionally, sample return provides the opportunity to revisit samples as analysis techniques improve as well as to further investigate unanticipated or ambiguous results. As launch vehicle and propulsion technologies continue to advance, it is becoming feasible to consider sample return missions from further out in the Solar System beyond Mars orbit. However, returning samples from increasingly distant destinations comes with high entry velocities, and thus requires ever more capable thermal protection systems (TPS). Evaluating the capabilities of existing mature TPS materials for a range of entry conditions and sample return aeroshell configurations is key to establishing the feasibility of future mission proposals. As such, this presentation describes the comprehensive trade study done to evaluate the feasibility of high velocity Earth entry missions with the currently available TPS materials.

Hannah S. Alpert↗

Large Scale Pumped Storage to Support Renewable Deployment; PSH Resource Assessment and Complementary Analysis for Alaska

The State of Alaska has a rather unique electric power system, as it has two larger transmission grids (Railbelt and Southeast Alaska) and over 150 islanded stand-alone power systems that are serving remote rural communities. In 2010, the Alaska legislature enacted a non-binding goal for 50% of renewable electricity generation by 2025. With the expected increase in wind and solar generation in the future, the role of energy storage becomes increasingly important. Considering the specific power system characteristics in Alaska, energy storage technologies that can supply electricity over an extended period of time, such as pumped storage hydropower (PSH), may play a key role in enabling the reliability and resiliency of both integrated and rural power systems. The overarching objective of the subject study of this presentation is to investigate the prospects and opportunities for PSH in Alaska.

Alaska↗

Future High-Resolution and High-Cadence Observations for Unraveling Eruptive Solar Features

Many of the key advances in solar science over the previous fifty years have been strongly influenced by imaging with increasing resolution and cadence of the Sun’s atmosphere from space. There is still much room for further advances in this area in the coming decades. Here we demonstrate this need using as an example recent past advances of the features known as solar coronal jets. Over the last few decades jet studies have progressed substantially, and much of this is due to improved resolution and cadence in imaging, along with concurrent magnetic field and spectroscopic observations.

Alphonse C Sterling↗

Illumination Conditions of the Lunar Polar Regions Using LOLA Topography

We use high-resolution altimetry data obtained by the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter instrument onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter to characterize present illumination conditions in the polar regions of the Moon. Compared to previous studies, both the spatial and temporal extent of the simulations are increased significantly, as well as the coverage (fill ratio) of the topographic maps used, thanks to the 28 Hz firing rate of the five-beam instrument. We determine the horizon elevation in a number of directions based on 240 m-resolution polar digital elevation models reaching down to 75 latitude. The illumination of both polar regions extending to 80 can be calculated for any geometry from those horizon longitudinal profiles. We validated our modeling with recent Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Wide-Angle Camera images. We assessed the extent of permanently shadowed regions (PSRs, defined as areas that never receive direct solar illumination), and obtained total areas generally larger than previous studies (12,866 and 16,055 sq. km, in the north and south respectively). We extended our direct illumination model to account for singly-scattered light, and found that every PSR does receive some amount of scattered light during the year. We conducted simulations over long periods (several 18.6-years lunar precession cycles) with a high temporal resolution (6 h), and identified the most illuminated locations in the vicinity of both poles. Because of the importance of those sites for exploration and engineering considerations, we characterized their illumination more precisely over the near future. Every year, a location near the Shackleton crater rim in the south polar region is sunlit continuously for 240 days, and its longest continuous period in total darkness is about 1.5 days. For some locations small height gains ( 10 m) can dramatically improve their average illumination and reduce the night duration, rendering some of those particularly attractive energy-wise as possible sites for near-continuous sources of solar power.

E. Mazarico↗

Further study of inversion layer MOS solar cells

A group of inversion layer MOS solar cells has been fabricated. The highest value of open-circuit voltage obtained for the cells is 0.568V. One of the cells has produced a short-circuit current of 79.6 mA and an open-circuit voltage of 0.54V. It is estimated that the actual area AMO efficiency of this cell is 6.6 percent with an assumed value of 0.75 for its fill factor. Efforts made for fabricating an IL/MOS cell with reasonable efficiencies are reported. Future work for 4 sq cm IL cells and 25 sq cm IL cells is discussed.

Ho, Fat Duen↗

Modeling Methods for Capturing System Interactions of Combined Technologies: A Study of PV + Battery

The costs of solar photovoltaics (PV) have been dropping in recent years, leading to increasing installations of solar PV systems and growing interest in how the technology will impact the electric grid at higher penetrations. Additionally, as battery costs decline it becomes important to understand the benefits and limitations of battery storage for the grid as well as potential benefits of co-locating battery storage and PV, particularly within the realm of future system planning. However, it is non-trivial to capture these potential benefits within a linearized capacity expansion model (CEM). This paper presents methodological developments to more fully represent the value and limitations of coupled PV and battery systems (PV + Battery) in CEMs using the Resource Planning Model (RPM), which co-optimizes capacity investments, transmission investments, and reduced-order dispatch in the Western Interconnection of North America through 2045. We use the model to simulate the evolution of the generation and transmission system under two core scenarios - a baseline scenario and a high renewable penetration scenario - coupled with sensitivities assuming low and midline PV and battery cost projections. When incorporating PV + battery, we find that it is important for CEMs to capture the ability of the coupled technology to provide firm capacity and reduce expected curtailment, compared to independent systems. These interactions can have even more dramatic impacts at higher solar penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Space Biology and Medicine: Space and Its Exploration - Volume I

Perhaps one of the greatest gifts that has been given to the people of the world in the last few hundred years has been an emerging sense of the place of our planet and its inhabitants within the context of the vast universe. Our knowledge of the rest of the universe has not come quickly, nor was the process of attaining it only recently begun; however, the unprecedented acceleration of that process has benefitted from a fundamental new aspect of our species that has only manifested itself in the last 30 years or so, the ability to travel in space. Before the space age, the Universe was studied only through observations from the Earth. All that has changed with the beginning of the space age. Machines built by humans have flown to all but one of the nine planets that revolve around our Sun, have ventured billions of miles from the Earth and looked back, and have landed on three other worlds. Spacecraft in orbit around the Earth have viewed the sky at a vast number of electromagnetic wavelengths, detecting the shape of the galaxy and the universe, and even measuring the remnants of the universe's beginning. Human explorers have ventured forth, first for short stays in orbit, then, later, walking upon the Moon and living for long periods in space. As they did so, billions of people on the Earth came to view the Earth in a fundamentally different way, not just as the familiar day to- day backdrop for their lives, but as a small oasis suspended in the night sky above an alien landscape. It is this new view of the Earth that is the true gift of space exploration. Space exploration has at once given us a new perspective on the value of our world, and a new perspective from which to understand how it operates. It has shown us that the Earth is by far the most precious place in the solar system in terms of supporting human life, while revealing that other destinations may still be compelling. The exploration of space has at once become a challenge for humanity to overcome and a path to our common future. But for humanity to embark on this path, we need to understand ourselves in a new environment. As such, an understanding of the biological consequences of and opportunities in space flight is essential. In this, the first volume of a joint U.S./Russian series on space biology and medicine, we describe the current status of our understanding of space and present general information that will prove useful when reading subsequent volumes. Since we are witnesses to the beginning of a new era of interplanetary travel, a significant portion of the first volume will concentrate on the physical and ecological conditions that exist in near and outer space, as well as heavenly bodies from the smallest ones to the giant planets and stars. While space exploration is a comparatively recent endeavor, its foundations were laid much more than 30 years ago, and its history has been an eventful one. In the first part of this volume, Rauschenbach, Sokolskiy, and Gurjian address the "Historical Aspects of Space Exploration" from its beginnings to a present-day view of the events of the space age. The nature of space itself and its features is the focus of the second section of the volume. In the first chapter of the part, "Stars and Interstellar Space," the origin and evolution of stars, and the nature of the portions of space most distant from Earth are described by Galeev and Marochnik. In Chapter 2, Pisarenko, Logachev, and Kurt in "The Sun and Interplanetary Space" bring us to the vicinity of our own solar system and provide a description and discussion of the nearest star and its influence on the space environment that our Earth and the other planets inhabit. In our solar system there are many fascinating objects, remnants of the formation of a rather ordinary star in a rather obscure portion of the galaxy. Historical accident has caused us to be much more curious (and knowledgeable) about "The Inner Planets of the Solar System" than about any of these other objects. In Chapter 3, Marov describes the planets Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars, their history and origin, and their environmental conditions, and in Chapter 4 Owen provides similar information about Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto, "The Outer Planets of the Solar System." Morrison provides a thorough discussion of "Asteroids, Comets, and Other Small Bodies" in Chapter 5. The understanding of these relics of the formation of the solar system may form the center of our ability to understand the origin of solar systems in general, and of the critical role that the beginning of the solar system had on the prospects for the origin of life and its continued survival and evolution in the face of their recurrent impacts on Earth. In Chapter 6, the first chapter of the third part, Rummel describes the area of "Exobiology," the study of the origin, evolution, and distribution of life in the context of the origin and evolution of the universe. The same processes that have given rise to life on Earth may have given rise to life elsewhere. In Chapter 7, the "Earth and the Biosphere," the nature and function of the Earth are discussed as a specific instance of planetary and biological evolution. The effects of biological processes on the Earth under the influence of human activities are also addressed by Moore and Bartlett in Chapter 7. The final chapter in this section concerns the prospects that life in the universe may be widespread; "SETI," the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, by Billingham and Tarter, presents the arguments for conducting a search for evidence of life elsewhere in the galaxy, and describes the various methods proposed for conducting such a search. While SETI has a distinctly exploration al character, more direct means are available for exploring the solar system around us. The fourth part of the volume addresses this subject of space exploration. Considering the prospects for research on space biology and medicine, the means of providing "Access to Space" are described by Feoktistov and Briggs in Chapter 9. This chapter addresses carriers and launch systems, the unmanned and manned spacecraft that they loft into space, and the task of mission operations by which these precious vessels are monitored, navigated, and controlled. Despite the successes of the past and the capabilities of the present, it is clear that the study of space biology and medicine will be even more rewarding in the future than it has been to date. The work of the next few years that will be undertaken by the U.S. and Russia, both independently and jointly, will focus first on enabling greater capabilities in the exploration of space, and then on using the unique characteristics of the space environment to provide insight and greater understanding into biological systems, their behavior, development, and origin. The chapters of the first volume were written by leaders in their fields from the U.S. and Russia. The material presented summarizes our current understanding of space and its exploration. We understand that the first volume will be of interest not only to medical personnel and biologists, but also to general readers who want information about space beyond their own particular fields of expertise.

Nicogossian, Arnauld E.↗

Optimal hybrid power plants for electric vehicle charging demand

Transmission constraints, increasing motivations to decarbonize, and concerns over peak electric vehicle (EV) load impacts on local grids have driven electric customers to consider behind-the-meter, hybrid power plant generation and storage at the distributed-grid level for EV charging. In this study, we develop capabilities to optimize hybrid power plant component capacities for EV charging. We then demonstrate these capabilities in a case study for Boulder, Colorado, using public EV charging data as well as wind and solar resource data. Our results show system designs that balance the cost of energy with load-meeting and peak shaving performance. Within the case study, systems designed for wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), and storage resulted in lower cost of energy than those optimized for PV and storage only. This indicates that in areas where wind resource exists, hybrid power plants that include wind, PV, and battery assets can better meet EV charging loads (including peak loads that are prone to overloading local grids) than PV and battery assets alone. Future work to address limitations in this paper include extending cost modeling to include performance losses (e.g., based on operations or weather) and charging station costs to estimate levelized cost of charging, and quantifying uncertainty and error in our aggregation methods for estimating EV charging loads at the hourly timescale.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Power System Flexibility Requirements and Supply

As penetrations of variable renewable energy generation technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) continue to increase across the United States, greater uncertainty and variability in the net load often lead to a concern about how power systems may adapt. Managing the system net load (i.e., load minus contribution from variable generation technologies) may become more challenging with increasing variable generation, as the magnitude and frequency of net ramps increase. However, there is inherent flexibility in power systems through the conventional generator fleet (under least-cost unit commitment and economic dispatch), less-conventional generation sources (e.g., storage, demand response, concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage), and imports and exports with neighbors. In this analysis, we create an open-source tool to analyze the flexibility of the results of a specific commercial unit commitment and economic dispatch tool (PLEXOS), but the code can be applied generically as well. The tool assesses the flexibility requirements (or demand) of a system through a net load analysis. The constraints and limitations of each generator are then considered to determine the availability (or supply) of flexibility. Then, the supply and demand of flexibility are compared to gain a more complete picture of potential flexibility concerns. We apply this open-source tool to high-penetration PV scenarios constructed for three focus regions in the western United States defined using the Resource Planning Model (RPM) capacity expansion modeling tool: RPM-OR, RPM-CO, and RPM-AZ. Generally, we find few flexibility concerns, as the western United States represents a large and interconnected power system with significant inherent flexibility. In addition, the PV scenarios we analyzed are overbuilt on capacity, leaving plenty of ramping ability on the system. We do find that for each focus region, the impact of imports on meeting ramping needs is essential. This means the PV integration in each focus region impacts the entire rest of the system. Each system has different dominant sources of flexibility. The conventional generator fleet (especially coal and gas combined-cycle technologies) as well as less-conventional sources such as storage are all shown to be important sources of flexibility. The scenarios evaluated here were designed to study the planning and operations impact of high solar penetration in each of three focus regions. However, none of the three focus regions likely will deploy PV in isolation, meaning the ability of imports and exports to provide flexibility may be considerably different in scenarios with strong PV deployment in every region. Overall, we intend that the framework we present here will be useful in future analysis of other system evolutions to identify whether and how flexibility may constrain the successful deployment of variable generation technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗